近20年来艾比湖逐月水量变化分析及未来变化趋势预测
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摘要
为了解艾比湖入湖水量情况,1988年博乐水文水资源勘测大队和中国科学院新疆地理研究所科研人员对艾比湖进行环湖考察。经访问调查,奎屯河于70年代末,已无地表水进入艾比湖。艾比湖北部各小河,只在夏季洪水期有少量洪水进入干涸的小湖区,形成小面积的水域,而且在短时间内蒸发散失。入湖的地表径流,绝大部分来自博尔塔拉河和精河。20世纪80年代以来,艾比湖水面面积持续增大,城区生态环境明显改善,与60、70年代水面面积急剧缩小、城区生态环境严重恶化形成鲜明对比。60年代以后,人类的农业活动对湖面变化的影响趋向稳定,流域温度、降水变化对湖面波动所产生的效应敏感地体现出来。80、90年代入湖径流增加,湖面总体扩展,两者变化基本一致。上世纪末到本世纪初,艾比湖面积的较大幅度扩展,与流域温度、降水的变化密切相关,是近期气候变化的响应。然而,近年的人类活动仍然不可忽视。不同于上世纪60年代的人类活动作用的影响,近期由于西部大开发战略的实施,退地还草、限制放牧、滴灌农业的推广等措施都将有利于流域农业耗水量降低,从而增加入湖径流量。这一阶段湖泊水面急剧增加是气候干湿变化的自然现象,与农业节水因素没有显著的关系。近期河流处在多年丰水期,未来两年将持续丰水期,河流水量会增加,入湖水量也将增加。未来30年将转入平水期,河流水量会减少,入湖水量也将减少。博河支流乌尔达克赛河上乌尔达克赛水库建成,精河下天吉水库将建成,又会人为造成入湖水量减少。由博乐水文水资源勘测大队负责,于1988年6月,在新疆生产建设兵团农五师90团4连大桥处设立博尔塔拉河入湖水量观测站,在82团养殖连大桥处设立精河入湖水量观测站,经过多年来的观测,并对观测资料进行整编、分析、计算、得出各年进入艾比湖的地表径流量,每年发布《艾比湖入湖水量分析》。1989—1993年5年中,平均每年流人艾比湖的地表径流量为4.64x108m3。其中博尔塔拉河流人艾比湖的地表径流量为3.31X108m3,占地表水入湖总水量71.3%;精河流人艾比湖的地表径流量1.33x108m3,占28.7%。针对艾比湖入湖水量近20 a变化过程,考虑近年流域人类活动对艾比湖湖面波动的效应及其强度的评估,艾比湖水量平衡关系,着重建立湖泊降水补给(无植物水面区降水直接转化为湖泊水体、沼泽芦苇区、旱地芦苇区等分区降水量)、入湖河流的有效补给(博河、90团五支渠及90团总排干渠和精河)、地下潜水层的地下径流补给(潜水与承压层之间有巨厚的黏土隔水层,潜水与承压水之
In order to survey the water of the Ebinur Lake, Xinjiang geography research institute of the Science Academy of China with the research group of Bole County anticipate surrounding the lake investigating the water amount situation in 1988. After the investigation, the river in Kuitun has not the surface water going into Ebinur from 70's to now. Ebinur every stream in the north , merely possess the a little flood water in the summer season to go into the sun dry little lake district , makes the little water area , and the water evaporates in briefly time to to be lost. Entry of the earth's surface water, originates profoundly from the Bortalanur and Jinghe River. Since the 80's 20 centuries, Ebinur's area continuees to broaden. The city proper ecology environment obvious improved. Compared with 60's and 70's, the area of a body of water area sharply lessens and the city environment seriously deteriorates to take shape the distinctive comparison. After the 60’s, the effect inclines to steady that farming production changes to the area of the lake. River basin temperature and rainfall changes fluctuate to the surface of the lake, and the effect coming into being sensitively displays out. 80, 90 years the runoff into lake adds, and surface of the lake total is spreaded, and two changes keep unanimously[23]. Reached in the first end of the century and the beginning of the century, that Ebinur surface spreads correlation with the change of the river basin temperature and the rainfall alternation. It is the answer of the climate changes in the near future. However, the past few years mankind maneuver is yet very important. Distinct mankind's effect of the 60’s, because of greatly opened up strategy implementation in the west in the near future, retreating the straw and limiting to pasture and usage of trickle irrigation, that each steps such as above and so on wholly shall benefit to the farming water amount to be saved, thereby add into the amount of flow in lake. In this fragment the reason that the area of Ebinur spreaded so quickly is about the change of wet and dry according the nature phenomen and have the strong relationship with the usage of water in the Vegetation. In recent years the area is covered in more rain, in the next two years it is still more rain. As the result the runoff of the lake will be more. But in the future 30
In order to survey the water of the Ebinur Lake, Xinjiang geography research institute of the Science Academy of China with the research group of Bole County anticipate surrounding the lake investigating the water amount situation in 1988. After the investigation, the river in Kuitun has not the surface water going into Ebinur from 70's to now. Ebinur every stream in the north , merely possess the a little flood water in the summer season to go into the sun dry little lake district , makes the little water area , and the water evaporates in briefly time to to be lost. Entry of the earth's surface water, originates profoundly from the Bortalanur and Jinghe River. Since the 80's 20 centuries, Ebinur's area continuees to broaden. The city proper ecology environment obvious improved. Compared with 60's and 70's, the area of a body of water area sharply lessens and the city environment seriously deteriorates to take shape the distinctive comparison. After the 60’s, the effect inclines to steady that farming production changes to the area of the lake. River basin temperature and rainfall changes fluctuate to the surface of the lake, and the effect coming into being sensitively displays out. 80, 90 years the runoff into lake adds, and surface of the lake total is spreaded, and two changes keep unanimously[23]. Reached in the first end of the century and the beginning of the century, that Ebinur surface spreads correlation with the change of the river basin temperature and the rainfall alternation. It is the answer of the climate changes in the near future. However, the past few years mankind maneuver is yet very important. Distinct mankind's effect of the 60’s, because of greatly opened up strategy implementation in the west in the near future, retreating the straw and limiting to pasture and usage of trickle irrigation, that each steps such as above and so on wholly shall benefit to the farming water amount to be saved, thereby add into the amount of flow in lake. In this fragment the reason that the area of Ebinur spreaded so quickly is about the change of wet and dry according the nature phenomen and have the strong relationship with the usage of water in the Vegetation. In recent years the area is covered in more rain, in the next two years it is still more rain. As the result the runoff of the lake will be more. But in the future 30
引文
[1]夏军、左其亭、邵民诚,博斯腾湖水资源可持续利用-理论、方法、实践,科学出版社 2003
[2]刘文甲,郭成城,籍传茂,侯海生.新疆水土资源开发与可持续发展的政策调整.资源.产业,1999.
[3]杨青,近 10 年新疆气候变化特征[J].新疆气象,1998,21(2):9-12.
[4]杨川德、邵新缓编,亚洲中部湖泊近期变化[M].北京:气象出版社.1993.
[5]陈旭、林焕令等,新疆西北部早古生代地层,JOURNAL OF STRATIGRAPHY 1998 年 Vol.22,No.4
[6]卢良才、黄保林,新疆艾比湖沉积物的热释光年及其环境意义,核技术,1993,
[7]杨云良、阎顺等,艾比湖流域生态环境演变与人类活动关系初探,生态学杂志,1996,15(6):
[8]1,何清 1,李红军 1,雷加强艾比湖流域沙尘气候变化趋势及其突变研究,中国沙漠第 23 卷 第 5 期 2003 年 9 月
[9]李文华,郭江平,赵强.新疆艾比湖荒漠生态保护区建设条件评价及规划[J].中国沙漠,2000,20(3):278-282.
[10]袁国映.艾比湖退缩及其对环境的影响[J\〗.干旱区地理,1990,13(4):63-67.
[11] 杨 利 普 , 杨 川 德 . 新 疆 艾 比 湖 流 域 水 资 源 利 用 与 艾 比 湖 演 变 [ J ]. 干 旱 区 地理,1990,13(4):1-4.
[12]加帕尔·买合皮尔,A·A·图尔苏诺夫.亚洲中部湖泊水生态学概论[M].乌鲁木齐:新疆科技卫生出版社(K),1996.101-114.
[13]胡汝骥,马虹,姜逢清,等.近年西北干旱区湖泊变化所示的气候趋势[J].干旱区资源与环境,2002,16(1):20-27.
[14]黄镇,何清.艾比湖面积的遥感气候学分析[J].新疆气象,2002,25(3):5-6.
[15]吴素芬,何文勤,胡汝骥,等.近年来新疆盆地平原区域湖泊变化原因分析[J].干旱区地理,2001,24(2):123-129.
[16] 张 强 , 胡 隐 樵 , 曹 晓 彦 , 等 . 论 西 北 干 旱 气 候 的 若 干 问 题 [ J ]. 中 国 沙漠,2000,20(4):357-362.
[17]YangQing. The Climate change and the Analyision on its Trend in Xinjiang Science recently 40 Years [ R ].Desert Technology international conference. Urumqi, China, ,2001.9.
[18]杨青,近 10 年新疆气候变化特征[J].新疆气象,1998,21(2):9-12.
[19]施雅风,沈永平,胡汝骥.西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨[J].冰川冻土,2002,24(3):219-226.
[20]Hu Ruji, Fan Zili, Wang Yajun. Assessment about the impact of climate change on environment in Xinjiang science resently 50 years. [J].AridLandGeography,2001,24(2):97-103.[胡汝骥,樊自立,王亚俊,等.近 50 年新疆气候变化对环境影响评估.干旱区地理,2001,24(2):97-103.]
[21]邱维理,翟秋敏,扈海波,赵烨,郑良美,李容全.安固里淖全新世湖面变化及其环境意义.北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),1999.
[22]马玉辉.新疆湖泊急剧萎缩干涸的深思.中学地理教学参考,1999.
[23]Su Yingjun, Zhang Zhenghai, Bao Anming. Degeberation of the ecological environmentin the Ebihnur Lake region and the improvement measures [J].AridLandGeography,2002,25(2):143-148.
[24]Qiao Chuanming. Evaporation from the water surface of Ebinur Lake and the around ecological environmental protection [J].AridLandGeography,1996,19(2):63-67.
[25]Zeng Qingjiang. Regulation of Bortala Valley on runoff. [J].AridLandGeography,1994,17(4):9-14.
[26]杨再田 史占余 潘景辉。北方旱作农业节水灌溉体系研究。中国农机化·Chinese Agricultural Mechanization, 2002,第一期
[27] 胡维斌 ,杨德英 ,任登举.生态艾比湖.国土绿化,2004.
[28] 李遐玲.艾比湖生态演变趋势和综合治理的对策.边疆经济与文化,2004.
[29] 胡维斌 ,杨德英 ,任登举.艾比湖湿地在流泪.防灾博览,2004.
[30] 刘艳,于新.对艾比湖湿地生态环境的思考.新疆林业,2004.
[31] 朱馨蕾,黄培祐.艾比湖湖周生境恶化及其恢复对策.新疆环境保护,2004.
[32] 胡维斌 ,杨德英.艾比湖:亦忧亦喜“软黄金”.新西部,2004.
[33] 舒平 ,田农.一个人·一辈子·一片林.新疆林业,2004.
[34] 吴敬禄,林琳.新疆艾比湖湖面波动特征及其原因.海洋地质与第四纪地质,2004.
[35] 胡维斌 ,杨德英 ,任登举.流泪的艾比湖湿地自然保护区.国土绿化,2004.
[36] 胡维斌,万巧玲.艾比湖拨动我们的心弦.中国环境管理,1999.
[37].艾比湖有条“金海岸”.渔业现代化,1999.
[38].导读.中国环境管理,1999.
[39] 胡维斌,王文华,任汝丽.关于艾比湖卤虫资源 de 综合报道.中国水产,1999.
[40] 梁斌,继成,金城,秀琴.思想政治工作是法宝.中国农垦,1999.
[41].新疆土地荒漠化日趋严重.价格与市场,1999.
[42].王晓峰.艾比湖流域风沙天气与艾比湖干缩之间的关系初探. 新疆师范大学学报(自然科学版).2004 国家自然科学基金西部专项:“新疆艾比湖流域社会经济与生态系统可持续发展模式研究(90302012)”
[2]刘文甲,郭成城,籍传茂,侯海生.新疆水土资源开发与可持续发展的政策调整.资源.产业,1999.
[3]杨青,近 10 年新疆气候变化特征[J].新疆气象,1998,21(2):9-12.
[4]杨川德、邵新缓编,亚洲中部湖泊近期变化[M].北京:气象出版社.1993.
[5]陈旭、林焕令等,新疆西北部早古生代地层,JOURNAL OF STRATIGRAPHY 1998 年 Vol.22,No.4
[6]卢良才、黄保林,新疆艾比湖沉积物的热释光年及其环境意义,核技术,1993,
[7]杨云良、阎顺等,艾比湖流域生态环境演变与人类活动关系初探,生态学杂志,1996,15(6):
[8]1,何清 1,李红军 1,雷加强艾比湖流域沙尘气候变化趋势及其突变研究,中国沙漠第 23 卷 第 5 期 2003 年 9 月
[9]李文华,郭江平,赵强.新疆艾比湖荒漠生态保护区建设条件评价及规划[J].中国沙漠,2000,20(3):278-282.
[10]袁国映.艾比湖退缩及其对环境的影响[J\〗.干旱区地理,1990,13(4):63-67.
[11] 杨 利 普 , 杨 川 德 . 新 疆 艾 比 湖 流 域 水 资 源 利 用 与 艾 比 湖 演 变 [ J ]. 干 旱 区 地理,1990,13(4):1-4.
[12]加帕尔·买合皮尔,A·A·图尔苏诺夫.亚洲中部湖泊水生态学概论[M].乌鲁木齐:新疆科技卫生出版社(K),1996.101-114.
[13]胡汝骥,马虹,姜逢清,等.近年西北干旱区湖泊变化所示的气候趋势[J].干旱区资源与环境,2002,16(1):20-27.
[14]黄镇,何清.艾比湖面积的遥感气候学分析[J].新疆气象,2002,25(3):5-6.
[15]吴素芬,何文勤,胡汝骥,等.近年来新疆盆地平原区域湖泊变化原因分析[J].干旱区地理,2001,24(2):123-129.
[16] 张 强 , 胡 隐 樵 , 曹 晓 彦 , 等 . 论 西 北 干 旱 气 候 的 若 干 问 题 [ J ]. 中 国 沙漠,2000,20(4):357-362.
[17]YangQing. The Climate change and the Analyision on its Trend in Xinjiang Science recently 40 Years [ R ].Desert Technology international conference. Urumqi, China, ,2001.9.
[18]杨青,近 10 年新疆气候变化特征[J].新疆气象,1998,21(2):9-12.
[19]施雅风,沈永平,胡汝骥.西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨[J].冰川冻土,2002,24(3):219-226.
[20]Hu Ruji, Fan Zili, Wang Yajun. Assessment about the impact of climate change on environment in Xinjiang science resently 50 years. [J].AridLandGeography,2001,24(2):97-103.[胡汝骥,樊自立,王亚俊,等.近 50 年新疆气候变化对环境影响评估.干旱区地理,2001,24(2):97-103.]
[21]邱维理,翟秋敏,扈海波,赵烨,郑良美,李容全.安固里淖全新世湖面变化及其环境意义.北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),1999.
[22]马玉辉.新疆湖泊急剧萎缩干涸的深思.中学地理教学参考,1999.
[23]Su Yingjun, Zhang Zhenghai, Bao Anming. Degeberation of the ecological environmentin the Ebihnur Lake region and the improvement measures [J].AridLandGeography,2002,25(2):143-148.
[24]Qiao Chuanming. Evaporation from the water surface of Ebinur Lake and the around ecological environmental protection [J].AridLandGeography,1996,19(2):63-67.
[25]Zeng Qingjiang. Regulation of Bortala Valley on runoff. [J].AridLandGeography,1994,17(4):9-14.
[26]杨再田 史占余 潘景辉。北方旱作农业节水灌溉体系研究。中国农机化·Chinese Agricultural Mechanization, 2002,第一期
[27] 胡维斌 ,杨德英 ,任登举.生态艾比湖.国土绿化,2004.
[28] 李遐玲.艾比湖生态演变趋势和综合治理的对策.边疆经济与文化,2004.
[29] 胡维斌 ,杨德英 ,任登举.艾比湖湿地在流泪.防灾博览,2004.
[30] 刘艳,于新.对艾比湖湿地生态环境的思考.新疆林业,2004.
[31] 朱馨蕾,黄培祐.艾比湖湖周生境恶化及其恢复对策.新疆环境保护,2004.
[32] 胡维斌 ,杨德英.艾比湖:亦忧亦喜“软黄金”.新西部,2004.
[33] 舒平 ,田农.一个人·一辈子·一片林.新疆林业,2004.
[34] 吴敬禄,林琳.新疆艾比湖湖面波动特征及其原因.海洋地质与第四纪地质,2004.
[35] 胡维斌 ,杨德英 ,任登举.流泪的艾比湖湿地自然保护区.国土绿化,2004.
[36] 胡维斌,万巧玲.艾比湖拨动我们的心弦.中国环境管理,1999.
[37].艾比湖有条“金海岸”.渔业现代化,1999.
[38].导读.中国环境管理,1999.
[39] 胡维斌,王文华,任汝丽.关于艾比湖卤虫资源 de 综合报道.中国水产,1999.
[40] 梁斌,继成,金城,秀琴.思想政治工作是法宝.中国农垦,1999.
[41].新疆土地荒漠化日趋严重.价格与市场,1999.
[42].王晓峰.艾比湖流域风沙天气与艾比湖干缩之间的关系初探. 新疆师范大学学报(自然科学版).2004 国家自然科学基金西部专项:“新疆艾比湖流域社会经济与生态系统可持续发展模式研究(90302012)”