汽车产业成长影响变量的实证研究
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摘要
汽车产业,以其在国民经济发展中的重要地位和作用,已经被很多国家作为衡量国家经济发展与科学技术发展水平的重要标志。中国汽车产业通过近些年的发展已经成为国民经济发展的重要支柱产业之一。目前世界汽车产业发展的特点是以中国为代表的新兴汽车市场正在成为世界发达汽车工业国家战略转移的重点。但是,抛开总量上的优势,从企业核心技术、研发投入能力、出口能力等方面,中国与汽车产业发达强国诸如美国、日本、德国之间还存在着很大的差距。时至今日中国还没有形成一家在世界汽车产业中具有影响力的领军型汽车企业集团。因此,中国从汽车大国到汽车强国之间还有很长的一段经历。
产业成长的特点可以描述产业成长的规律、内在与外在的表象特征。在产业成长的特征基础上可以发掘影响产业成长的独特变量,进一步量化的展现变量如何影响产业的成长、变量对产业成长的影响有多大。由于中国经济发展的自身特性,决定了中国汽车产业的诞生、发展历程与先进资本主义国家的汽车产业的诞生、发展历程是不同的,这样以来影响中国汽车产业成长的变量也会具有一定的代表性。本文正是给予这样的思路展开了研究。本文的研究主要分为二大部分,世界汽车产业成长特点、世界汽车产业成长影响变量和中国汽车产业成长特点、中国汽车产业成长影响变量。
第一部分主要是世界汽车产业成长的主要特点、世界汽车产业成长的影响变量。世界汽车产业成长的特点主要细化为产业产品特征、产业资本特征、产业结构特征、产业全球化特征等四个小节,在每一小节中进行详尽的论述。考虑到汽车产品的高密集型、高价值型、高技术型,第一小节的产业产品特征首先论述了产品的属性特征;考虑到产品最终流入市场,在第一小节中紧接着论述了近些年世界汽车产业的产品市场特征。在第二节产业的资本特征主要以汽车产业的高资本投入为主的特性为基础,分析了汽车产业的规模经济、绝对成本优势和高进入壁垒等三个资本特性。第三节汽车产业的结构特征主要分为汽车企业的组织结构特征和汽车企业组织活动的特征。由于汽车产业的高进入壁垒,形成了世界汽车产业的高生产集中度特征,而正是世界汽车企业间一次次激烈的兼并与重组带来了生产集中度的高度化。第四节世界汽车产业的全球化特征主要分为汽车生产的全球化和汽车组织活动的全球化二部分。海外生产、合资企业、合作性生产等成为了全球化的主要组织形式。基于以上的世界汽车产业成长的特征,在选取影响世界汽车产业成长的影响变量时主要选取了经济变量、市场需求变量、市场供给变量等三大方面的指标。其中用GDP来代表经济变量;人均GDP、人口数量代表市场需求变量,其中人均GDP代表收入的增长变化情况;用雇员数量和投资额代表潜在的市场供给能力。以上变量作为解释变量,选取世界汽车总产量作为被解释变量。
第二部分主要是中国汽车产业成长的主要特点、中国汽车产业成长的影响变量。这一大部分是本文的重点论述部分。考虑到中国经济发展历程的独特性,在论述中国汽车产业成长特点的一章中首次回顾了中国汽车产业成长的轨迹,包括中国汽车产业诞生直至今天的发展阶段,中国汽车产业的增长态势,中国汽车产业的生命周期三点。然后在此基础上提出第二节中国汽车产业的结构特征,第三节中国汽车企业与产品特征。以上二节都是围绕中国特色的发展来展开的。第二节中国汽车产业的结构特征主要展示了近些年中国汽车产业进行的产业结构调整,然后在产业结构重组与调整基础上比较了中国国内销量前十名的企业和世界销量前十名企业的差距所在。第三节中国汽车产业企业与产品特征首先论述了企业特征,分为企业集中度特征和企业数量变化的特征;产品特征则主要展示了近些年汽车产品结构的变化趋势。基于以上的中国汽车产业成长的特征,在选取影响中国汽车产业成长的影响变量时考虑到来自产业内部和产业外部的双重力量,因而对其进行了区分研究。内在影响变量主要分为最基本的生产要素变量和企业变量,其中生产要素变量以技术、资本、劳动力投入为主要指标,选取研究与发展经费支出代表技术投入、年末职工人数、固定资产净值平均余额代表资本与劳动的投入;其中企业变量分为企业规模变量和企业效率变量,选取企业个数代表企业规模,利润总额和全员劳动生产率代表企业效率的指标。外部影响变量主要分为经济变量、人均可支配收入、人口数量、外商投资、对外贸易情况、资源约束等六个方面,选取GDP(代表经济发展水平)、人均可支配收入、人口数量、出口金额(代表对外贸易)、石油、钢铁需求量、道路质量(代表资源的外在约束状况)等具体指标来加以反映。以上的变量是解释变量,选取产量和汽车工业总产值作为被解释变量。
本文正是基于以上的研究框架展开实证研究。通过参考相关文献,查阅统计数据,最终确定了研究的实证模型。根据本文的研究目的和内容需要,主要采用定性与定量相结合的研究方法进行研究。在文献回顾、世界汽车产业成长特点、中国汽车产业成长特点的总结三部分将采用定性研究为主的方法。在分析世界汽车产业成长影响变量、中国汽车产业成长影响变量(内部、外部)三部分将采用定量研究的方法。主要用到的方法有SPSS的相关性分析,EVIEWS的ADF平稳性分析、OLS多元线性回归模型分析、EG协整性分析、Johansen协整检验、VAR模型估计、Granger因果检验等方法。应用的软件主要是SPSS15.0和EVIEWS5.1。
通过对世界汽车产业成长影响变量的实证研究结果显示,GDP与生产量之间存在着高度的正相关关系;人均GDP与人均汽车保有量之间存在着高度的正相关关系;人口数量与汽车生产量之间存在着正相关关系;投资额与汽车生产量之间存在着正相关关系;雇员数量与汽车生产量之间存在着正相关关系。通过对中国汽车产业成长影响变量的实证研究结果显示,中国汽车产业中,一单位量的资本投入带来的产出比一单位的劳动投入带来的产出要多,也即资本的产出弹性要大于劳动的产出弹性;企业个数与汽车工业总产值几乎没有线性相关关系;汽车工业总产值与利润总额、全员劳动生产率之间存在着长期均衡的关系;汽车工业总产值与人均GDP之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;汽车总产量与人均可支配收入之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;汽车工业总产值与出口金额之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;汽车工业总产值与石油、钢铁需求量存在长期稳定的均衡关系。
The automobile industry, with the important position and role in many countries, has been used to be an important symbol to measure the national economic development and the development of science and technology level. China's automobile industry has become an important pillar industry in the national economy through the development in recent years. Now, the characteristics of the world automobile industry is strategic shift ,represented by a new type of vehicle market, especially notably China. But, aside from the amount of advantage, enterprise core technology, r&d investment ability, the ability to export etc, automobile industry of China has a large gap with the developed powers such as USA, Japan, Germany.Untill now, China has not formed an influential automobile enterprise in the world. Therefore, China still has a long way from a big automobile country to a powerful country.
The characteristics of the industry growth can describe the rules of the industry growth, inner and outer appearance characteristics. On the base of the characteristics of industry growth can explore the unique variables which affect the industry growth, then show how the quantitative variables affect the industry growth, how much impact do the variables do. Due to the economic development of China's own characteristics, determines the birth and development of China's automobile industry different from the advanced capitalist countries.Therfore, the variables which influence the industry growth will have certain representativeness. This paper is to study the idea. This research mainly divided into two parts, world automobile industry growth characteristics, variables which influence the world automobile industry growth, China's automobile industry growth characteristics, variables which influence the China's automobile industry growth.
The first part of the paper is the main characteristics of the world automobile industry, variables which influence the world automobile industry growth. The main characteristics of the word automobile industry growth are devided into the characteristic of product, the characteristic of capital, industrial structure characteristics, industry globalization characteristics. In each section for details. Considering the high intensive, high technology, high value of the automobile products, first section first discusses the characteristics of industrial products. Considering the product finally flows into the market, then the section discusses the product market of the world automobile industry. In the second quarter, the mainly characteristic of the capital characteristics is the high capital investment. On the based of this characteristic, then analyze the economy of scale, the absolute superiority and the high cost to entry. The third quarter is the structure characteristics of the automobile industry.This mainly divided into the organization structure and the enterprises’organize activities. Due to the high barriers to entry of automobile industry, the world automobile industry, has become to form a high production concentration, this mainly because of the fiercely merger and reorganization. The four quarter is the globalization characteristics of the world automobile industry. The fourth session is divided into the car production activities of globalization and the events of the organizations of globalization. Overseas production, joint ventures, cooperative production of globalization have become the main form. Based on the above world automobile industry growth characteristics, when choose the variables which influence the world automobile industry mainly choose the economy variabl, market needs, market supply variable. Choose GDP represent economic variables; Per capita GDP, population, represent the market demand, Per capita GDP represents the growth of income; with employee number and investment represent the potential market supply capacity. The above variables as explaining variables, and select the auto production as the explained variable.
The second part of China's automobile industry is the main characteristics of China's automobile industry growth, the influence variables which influence China's automobile industry growth .This part is the main part of this paper. Considering the uniqueness of China's automobile industry growth characteristics, the first chapter reviews China's automobile industry growth ,include the trace of China's automobile industry, the development of China's automotive industry, the life cycle of China's automobile industry. Then put forward the structure characteristics of China's automobile industry, the third quarter is the characteristics of the automobile enterprises and products in China.The above 2 is all around Chinese characteristics. The structure characteristics of China's automobile industry mainly show the adjustment of industrial structure of China's automobile industry, then compare the gap between the world’s top 10 and China’s top 10. The third quarter of China's automobile industry enterprises and product features first discuss the characteristics of the enterprise, is divided into enterprise concentration features and characteristics of enterprise quantity change.Product characteristics, main show the recent changes in the structure of automobile products. Based on the above characteristics of China's automobile industry growth in China's automobile industry growth, when select the effects considering the effect variables from internal and external.Internal affect variables mainly divided into the most basic factors of production and enterprises. The production factors, including technology, capital and labor inputs, choose expenditure represents technology investment, choose year-end worker average balance, net value of fixed assets investment representat the capital and labor inputs. Included, the enterprise variables can be devided into enterprise scale variable and enterprise efficiency. Choose the number of enterprises represent enterprises’scale, choose the total profit and the overall labour productivity on behalf the enterprise efficiency. External variables mainly divided into economic variables, the per capita disposable income, population, foreign investment, foreign trade, resource constraints, selecting GDP (representing the level of the economic development), the per capita disposable income, population, the amount of exports (representing foreign trade), oil and steel demand, the quality of road (representing resources constraint conditions and external index) to reflect. The above variables is explaining variables, select output and automobile industrial output as explained variables.
This paper is based on the above research framework. Through the reference documentation, consult statistics, then eventually determine the research of empirical model. According to the research content and purpose, mainly by qualitative and quantitative research methods. In the literature review, the world automobile industry growth characteristics of China's automobile industry, summarizes these three parts, choose the method of qualitative research mainly. On the analysis of the world automobile industry growing influence variables, China's automobile industry growing influence variables (internal and external) these three parts will adopt quantitative research methods. The paper mainly use SPSS correlation analysis method, the ADF stability analysis by EVIEWS, the multivariate linear regression model, EG cointegration analysis, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality VAR model estimation method, etc. Application software is mainly SPSS15.0 and EVIEWS5.1.
Through the world car industry growing influence, the empirical research shows variables, GDP and production of the positive correlation, Per capita GDP and per capita automobile of the positive correlation. The population and automobile production has a positive correlation. Investment and automobile production has a positive correlation. Employees with automobile production quantity has a positive correlation. Based on China's automobile industry growing influence, the empirical research results show that China's automobile industry, a unit of investment input can get more output than a unit by labor input. The number of the enterprises almost have no linear correlation with the total production of automobile industry. The total production of automobile industry has a long-term equilibrium relationship with the total profit, the overall labour productivity. The total production of automobile industry has a long-term equilibrium relationship with the per capita GDP, per capita disposable income, the amount of exports, and the oil, steel demand.
产业成长的特点可以描述产业成长的规律、内在与外在的表象特征。在产业成长的特征基础上可以发掘影响产业成长的独特变量,进一步量化的展现变量如何影响产业的成长、变量对产业成长的影响有多大。由于中国经济发展的自身特性,决定了中国汽车产业的诞生、发展历程与先进资本主义国家的汽车产业的诞生、发展历程是不同的,这样以来影响中国汽车产业成长的变量也会具有一定的代表性。本文正是给予这样的思路展开了研究。本文的研究主要分为二大部分,世界汽车产业成长特点、世界汽车产业成长影响变量和中国汽车产业成长特点、中国汽车产业成长影响变量。
第一部分主要是世界汽车产业成长的主要特点、世界汽车产业成长的影响变量。世界汽车产业成长的特点主要细化为产业产品特征、产业资本特征、产业结构特征、产业全球化特征等四个小节,在每一小节中进行详尽的论述。考虑到汽车产品的高密集型、高价值型、高技术型,第一小节的产业产品特征首先论述了产品的属性特征;考虑到产品最终流入市场,在第一小节中紧接着论述了近些年世界汽车产业的产品市场特征。在第二节产业的资本特征主要以汽车产业的高资本投入为主的特性为基础,分析了汽车产业的规模经济、绝对成本优势和高进入壁垒等三个资本特性。第三节汽车产业的结构特征主要分为汽车企业的组织结构特征和汽车企业组织活动的特征。由于汽车产业的高进入壁垒,形成了世界汽车产业的高生产集中度特征,而正是世界汽车企业间一次次激烈的兼并与重组带来了生产集中度的高度化。第四节世界汽车产业的全球化特征主要分为汽车生产的全球化和汽车组织活动的全球化二部分。海外生产、合资企业、合作性生产等成为了全球化的主要组织形式。基于以上的世界汽车产业成长的特征,在选取影响世界汽车产业成长的影响变量时主要选取了经济变量、市场需求变量、市场供给变量等三大方面的指标。其中用GDP来代表经济变量;人均GDP、人口数量代表市场需求变量,其中人均GDP代表收入的增长变化情况;用雇员数量和投资额代表潜在的市场供给能力。以上变量作为解释变量,选取世界汽车总产量作为被解释变量。
第二部分主要是中国汽车产业成长的主要特点、中国汽车产业成长的影响变量。这一大部分是本文的重点论述部分。考虑到中国经济发展历程的独特性,在论述中国汽车产业成长特点的一章中首次回顾了中国汽车产业成长的轨迹,包括中国汽车产业诞生直至今天的发展阶段,中国汽车产业的增长态势,中国汽车产业的生命周期三点。然后在此基础上提出第二节中国汽车产业的结构特征,第三节中国汽车企业与产品特征。以上二节都是围绕中国特色的发展来展开的。第二节中国汽车产业的结构特征主要展示了近些年中国汽车产业进行的产业结构调整,然后在产业结构重组与调整基础上比较了中国国内销量前十名的企业和世界销量前十名企业的差距所在。第三节中国汽车产业企业与产品特征首先论述了企业特征,分为企业集中度特征和企业数量变化的特征;产品特征则主要展示了近些年汽车产品结构的变化趋势。基于以上的中国汽车产业成长的特征,在选取影响中国汽车产业成长的影响变量时考虑到来自产业内部和产业外部的双重力量,因而对其进行了区分研究。内在影响变量主要分为最基本的生产要素变量和企业变量,其中生产要素变量以技术、资本、劳动力投入为主要指标,选取研究与发展经费支出代表技术投入、年末职工人数、固定资产净值平均余额代表资本与劳动的投入;其中企业变量分为企业规模变量和企业效率变量,选取企业个数代表企业规模,利润总额和全员劳动生产率代表企业效率的指标。外部影响变量主要分为经济变量、人均可支配收入、人口数量、外商投资、对外贸易情况、资源约束等六个方面,选取GDP(代表经济发展水平)、人均可支配收入、人口数量、出口金额(代表对外贸易)、石油、钢铁需求量、道路质量(代表资源的外在约束状况)等具体指标来加以反映。以上的变量是解释变量,选取产量和汽车工业总产值作为被解释变量。
本文正是基于以上的研究框架展开实证研究。通过参考相关文献,查阅统计数据,最终确定了研究的实证模型。根据本文的研究目的和内容需要,主要采用定性与定量相结合的研究方法进行研究。在文献回顾、世界汽车产业成长特点、中国汽车产业成长特点的总结三部分将采用定性研究为主的方法。在分析世界汽车产业成长影响变量、中国汽车产业成长影响变量(内部、外部)三部分将采用定量研究的方法。主要用到的方法有SPSS的相关性分析,EVIEWS的ADF平稳性分析、OLS多元线性回归模型分析、EG协整性分析、Johansen协整检验、VAR模型估计、Granger因果检验等方法。应用的软件主要是SPSS15.0和EVIEWS5.1。
通过对世界汽车产业成长影响变量的实证研究结果显示,GDP与生产量之间存在着高度的正相关关系;人均GDP与人均汽车保有量之间存在着高度的正相关关系;人口数量与汽车生产量之间存在着正相关关系;投资额与汽车生产量之间存在着正相关关系;雇员数量与汽车生产量之间存在着正相关关系。通过对中国汽车产业成长影响变量的实证研究结果显示,中国汽车产业中,一单位量的资本投入带来的产出比一单位的劳动投入带来的产出要多,也即资本的产出弹性要大于劳动的产出弹性;企业个数与汽车工业总产值几乎没有线性相关关系;汽车工业总产值与利润总额、全员劳动生产率之间存在着长期均衡的关系;汽车工业总产值与人均GDP之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;汽车总产量与人均可支配收入之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;汽车工业总产值与出口金额之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;汽车工业总产值与石油、钢铁需求量存在长期稳定的均衡关系。
The automobile industry, with the important position and role in many countries, has been used to be an important symbol to measure the national economic development and the development of science and technology level. China's automobile industry has become an important pillar industry in the national economy through the development in recent years. Now, the characteristics of the world automobile industry is strategic shift ,represented by a new type of vehicle market, especially notably China. But, aside from the amount of advantage, enterprise core technology, r&d investment ability, the ability to export etc, automobile industry of China has a large gap with the developed powers such as USA, Japan, Germany.Untill now, China has not formed an influential automobile enterprise in the world. Therefore, China still has a long way from a big automobile country to a powerful country.
The characteristics of the industry growth can describe the rules of the industry growth, inner and outer appearance characteristics. On the base of the characteristics of industry growth can explore the unique variables which affect the industry growth, then show how the quantitative variables affect the industry growth, how much impact do the variables do. Due to the economic development of China's own characteristics, determines the birth and development of China's automobile industry different from the advanced capitalist countries.Therfore, the variables which influence the industry growth will have certain representativeness. This paper is to study the idea. This research mainly divided into two parts, world automobile industry growth characteristics, variables which influence the world automobile industry growth, China's automobile industry growth characteristics, variables which influence the China's automobile industry growth.
The first part of the paper is the main characteristics of the world automobile industry, variables which influence the world automobile industry growth. The main characteristics of the word automobile industry growth are devided into the characteristic of product, the characteristic of capital, industrial structure characteristics, industry globalization characteristics. In each section for details. Considering the high intensive, high technology, high value of the automobile products, first section first discusses the characteristics of industrial products. Considering the product finally flows into the market, then the section discusses the product market of the world automobile industry. In the second quarter, the mainly characteristic of the capital characteristics is the high capital investment. On the based of this characteristic, then analyze the economy of scale, the absolute superiority and the high cost to entry. The third quarter is the structure characteristics of the automobile industry.This mainly divided into the organization structure and the enterprises’organize activities. Due to the high barriers to entry of automobile industry, the world automobile industry, has become to form a high production concentration, this mainly because of the fiercely merger and reorganization. The four quarter is the globalization characteristics of the world automobile industry. The fourth session is divided into the car production activities of globalization and the events of the organizations of globalization. Overseas production, joint ventures, cooperative production of globalization have become the main form. Based on the above world automobile industry growth characteristics, when choose the variables which influence the world automobile industry mainly choose the economy variabl, market needs, market supply variable. Choose GDP represent economic variables; Per capita GDP, population, represent the market demand, Per capita GDP represents the growth of income; with employee number and investment represent the potential market supply capacity. The above variables as explaining variables, and select the auto production as the explained variable.
The second part of China's automobile industry is the main characteristics of China's automobile industry growth, the influence variables which influence China's automobile industry growth .This part is the main part of this paper. Considering the uniqueness of China's automobile industry growth characteristics, the first chapter reviews China's automobile industry growth ,include the trace of China's automobile industry, the development of China's automotive industry, the life cycle of China's automobile industry. Then put forward the structure characteristics of China's automobile industry, the third quarter is the characteristics of the automobile enterprises and products in China.The above 2 is all around Chinese characteristics. The structure characteristics of China's automobile industry mainly show the adjustment of industrial structure of China's automobile industry, then compare the gap between the world’s top 10 and China’s top 10. The third quarter of China's automobile industry enterprises and product features first discuss the characteristics of the enterprise, is divided into enterprise concentration features and characteristics of enterprise quantity change.Product characteristics, main show the recent changes in the structure of automobile products. Based on the above characteristics of China's automobile industry growth in China's automobile industry growth, when select the effects considering the effect variables from internal and external.Internal affect variables mainly divided into the most basic factors of production and enterprises. The production factors, including technology, capital and labor inputs, choose expenditure represents technology investment, choose year-end worker average balance, net value of fixed assets investment representat the capital and labor inputs. Included, the enterprise variables can be devided into enterprise scale variable and enterprise efficiency. Choose the number of enterprises represent enterprises’scale, choose the total profit and the overall labour productivity on behalf the enterprise efficiency. External variables mainly divided into economic variables, the per capita disposable income, population, foreign investment, foreign trade, resource constraints, selecting GDP (representing the level of the economic development), the per capita disposable income, population, the amount of exports (representing foreign trade), oil and steel demand, the quality of road (representing resources constraint conditions and external index) to reflect. The above variables is explaining variables, select output and automobile industrial output as explained variables.
This paper is based on the above research framework. Through the reference documentation, consult statistics, then eventually determine the research of empirical model. According to the research content and purpose, mainly by qualitative and quantitative research methods. In the literature review, the world automobile industry growth characteristics of China's automobile industry, summarizes these three parts, choose the method of qualitative research mainly. On the analysis of the world automobile industry growing influence variables, China's automobile industry growing influence variables (internal and external) these three parts will adopt quantitative research methods. The paper mainly use SPSS correlation analysis method, the ADF stability analysis by EVIEWS, the multivariate linear regression model, EG cointegration analysis, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality VAR model estimation method, etc. Application software is mainly SPSS15.0 and EVIEWS5.1.
Through the world car industry growing influence, the empirical research shows variables, GDP and production of the positive correlation, Per capita GDP and per capita automobile of the positive correlation. The population and automobile production has a positive correlation. Investment and automobile production has a positive correlation. Employees with automobile production quantity has a positive correlation. Based on China's automobile industry growing influence, the empirical research results show that China's automobile industry, a unit of investment input can get more output than a unit by labor input. The number of the enterprises almost have no linear correlation with the total production of automobile industry. The total production of automobile industry has a long-term equilibrium relationship with the total profit, the overall labour productivity. The total production of automobile industry has a long-term equilibrium relationship with the per capita GDP, per capita disposable income, the amount of exports, and the oil, steel demand.
引文
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