中国农业银行HB省分行信用风险贷前防范与控制研究
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摘要
随着经济全球化和金融一体化的快速发展,在全世界范围内金融危机频繁爆发。我国虽然还没有爆发金融危机,但中国四大国有商业银行的巨额不良贷款也潜伏着巨大的隐患。中国农业银行HB省分行的最大风险来自于其在经营过程中累积的巨额的不良贷款,有效防范和控制不良贷款的发生是中国农业银行HB省分行的首要研究课题。本论文运用比较分析法、归纳分析法和实证研究法分析研究了中国农业银行HB省分行的信用风险成因,特别对HB省分行信贷流程客户部门受理与调查、信贷管理部门审查、贷审会审议与审批、客户部门经营管理四个基本环节进行了分析研究。造成HB省分行不良贷款损失有多种原因,包括外部的和内部的。内部原因主要是HB省分行信贷管理制度存在缺陷,特别是在信贷流程中贷前调查不科学,是HB省分行信贷风险产生的直接原因。所以本论文在现代工商管理管理理论的指导下对HB省分行信贷调查方案进行了再设计,并以统一的信贷调查方法、统一的分析工具、统一的调查标准,建立起统一的标准化的信贷调查模板。
本论文首次将波特的五力分析、波士顿矩阵分析、直线回归预测法、量本利分析和SWOT分析融入到信贷调查方案中,可使HB省分行的客户经理在进行企业调查时对借款人未来的现金流进行较精确的测算和预测和科学地对借款人进行全面分析,从而对借款人及时足额归还借款的可能性做出准确判断,对防范银行信贷风险起到积极的指导作用。
本论文以河北JS公司的流动资金贷款调查作为实证研究分析后,得出以下结论:在现有的HB省分行的信贷从业人员不能进行大的调整的情况下,以统一调查方法、统一分析工具、统一调查标准,并建立统一的标准化的信贷调查模板的信贷调查方案设计,是中国农业银行HB省分行信用风险防范的最直接和有效措施。
With the quick development of economic globalization and financial integration, financial crisis breaks out frequently in the worldwide. Though in our country there has never been a crisis, there is hidden trouble in the large amount of non-performing loans of Chinese four state-owned commercial banks. The biggest risk of Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China is the big accumulated sum of non-performing loans in its running process. Effective precaution and control of the occurrence of non-performing loans is the chief research topic of Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China. Due to the aim and meaning of this research, in the paper the author makes a research on the cause of formation of credit risk in Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China with the method of comparative analysis, inductive method, and empirical method. Especially credit flow customers department acceptation and research, credit management department investigation, loans investigation meeting examination and approval, and customer department operation and management are analyzed and studied. There are a lot of reasons of non-performing loans in Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China, including internal reasons and external ones. Internally there are defects in the managing rules of Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China. The direct reason for the credit risk is that the investigation before the credit is not reasonable. Under the guidance of modern business administration theory, the author redesigns the credit investigation program for Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China and builds a uniform standardized credit investigation template according to the uniform credit investigation method, uniform analyzing tools and uniform investigation standards.
In this paper, approach to Poter’s five-force analysis, approach to Boston consulting group matrix, approach to linear-regression analysis, mathematical approach to cost-volume-profit analysis, and approach to SWOT analysis are combines to the credit investigation program. This method can help the customer managers of Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China to calculate and predict the borrowers’future cash flow, and to analyze the borrowers generally and scientifically. Therefore, they can decide accurately the possibility of borrowers’returning the loans timely and completely, which can have positive directing function for preventing credit risks.
After the empirical research and analysis of circulating fund of Hebei JS company, the following statement is concluded: in the situation that the present credit staff can not be adjusted in a large scale, the credit investigation program design of using the uniform credit investigation method, uniform analyzing tools and uniform investigation standards to form a uniform standardized credit investigation template is the most direct and most effective measure to prevent credit risks of Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China.
本论文首次将波特的五力分析、波士顿矩阵分析、直线回归预测法、量本利分析和SWOT分析融入到信贷调查方案中,可使HB省分行的客户经理在进行企业调查时对借款人未来的现金流进行较精确的测算和预测和科学地对借款人进行全面分析,从而对借款人及时足额归还借款的可能性做出准确判断,对防范银行信贷风险起到积极的指导作用。
本论文以河北JS公司的流动资金贷款调查作为实证研究分析后,得出以下结论:在现有的HB省分行的信贷从业人员不能进行大的调整的情况下,以统一调查方法、统一分析工具、统一调查标准,并建立统一的标准化的信贷调查模板的信贷调查方案设计,是中国农业银行HB省分行信用风险防范的最直接和有效措施。
With the quick development of economic globalization and financial integration, financial crisis breaks out frequently in the worldwide. Though in our country there has never been a crisis, there is hidden trouble in the large amount of non-performing loans of Chinese four state-owned commercial banks. The biggest risk of Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China is the big accumulated sum of non-performing loans in its running process. Effective precaution and control of the occurrence of non-performing loans is the chief research topic of Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China. Due to the aim and meaning of this research, in the paper the author makes a research on the cause of formation of credit risk in Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China with the method of comparative analysis, inductive method, and empirical method. Especially credit flow customers department acceptation and research, credit management department investigation, loans investigation meeting examination and approval, and customer department operation and management are analyzed and studied. There are a lot of reasons of non-performing loans in Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China, including internal reasons and external ones. Internally there are defects in the managing rules of Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China. The direct reason for the credit risk is that the investigation before the credit is not reasonable. Under the guidance of modern business administration theory, the author redesigns the credit investigation program for Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China and builds a uniform standardized credit investigation template according to the uniform credit investigation method, uniform analyzing tools and uniform investigation standards.
In this paper, approach to Poter’s five-force analysis, approach to Boston consulting group matrix, approach to linear-regression analysis, mathematical approach to cost-volume-profit analysis, and approach to SWOT analysis are combines to the credit investigation program. This method can help the customer managers of Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China to calculate and predict the borrowers’future cash flow, and to analyze the borrowers generally and scientifically. Therefore, they can decide accurately the possibility of borrowers’returning the loans timely and completely, which can have positive directing function for preventing credit risks.
After the empirical research and analysis of circulating fund of Hebei JS company, the following statement is concluded: in the situation that the present credit staff can not be adjusted in a large scale, the credit investigation program design of using the uniform credit investigation method, uniform analyzing tools and uniform investigation standards to form a uniform standardized credit investigation template is the most direct and most effective measure to prevent credit risks of Hebei Branch of Agricultural Bank of China.
引文
[1] 冯禄成,商业银行贷款风险管理技术与实务,中国金融出版社,2006
[2] 王克华,货币银行学,武汉大学出版社,1996
[3] 周升业,金融理论与实务,中国财政经济出版社,2000
[4] 付正辉,商业银行资本管理与风险控制,经济日报出版社,2005
[5] 武剑,内部评级理论、方法与实务,中国金融出版社,2005
[6] 张吉光,商业银行全面风险管理,立信会计出版社,2006
[7] 弗雷德里克·S·米什金,货币金融学(第六版),中国人民大学出版社,2005
[8] 亨利·范·格罗,银行风险分析与管理(第二版—),中国人民大学出版社,2006
[9] 彼得·S·罗斯, 商业银行管理(第 5 版),机械工业出版社,2004
[10] 戴维特, 信用风险模型与巴塞尔协议 ,中国人民大学出版社,2005
[11] David F. Scott 等,现代财务管理基础(第 8 版),清华大学出版社,2004
[12] Stephen P. Robbins, Management(Eighth Edition), 清华大学出版社,2005
[13] 张东生,李艳双,企业战略管理,机械工业出版社,2005
[14] 杨明生,商业银行客户经理必读,中国金融出版社,2003
[15] 张坚红 中外银行信贷管理的比较与启示 南方金融 2002 年第 5 期
[16] 王娟 美国信用风险评估体系简介 金融时报 2002 年 9 月 16 日
[17] 李志刚, 国外商业银行信贷风险管理组织结构,中国城市金融,2003 年第 11 期
[18] 迟国泰,基于 VaR 约束的银行资产负债管理优化模型,大连理工大学学报,2002 年第 06 期
[19] 李利娜,财务分析在银行信用风险管理中的运用,广西金融研究,2002 年第 3 期
[20] 赵卫兵,我国商业银行信用风险研究,现代管理科学,2005 年 1 期
[21] 李豫,国际银行业 VaR 信贷风险技木发展与应用,金融理论与头践,2003 年 1 期
[22] 姜再勇,风险管理,当代经济研究,2000 年第 10 期
[23] 葛兆强,世界银行业发展的趋势特点与我国商业银行改革发展策略,当代经济科学,2000 年第 2 期
[24] 刘卉等,我国商业银行风险管理存在的问题及改进措施,商业银行,2004 年第 5 期
[25] 杨瑞,当前银行信贷客户信用等级评定初探,市场周刊,2005 年第 2 期
[26] 陈忠阳,信用风险量化管理模型发展探析,国际金融研究,2000 年 10 期
[27] 刘学贵,张怀雷,信用风险模型对我国商业银行适用性思,考特区经济,2005 年 1期
[28] 宋逢明、齐莹“信用矩阵”与商业银行贷款风险管理,华南金融研究,2000 年 12 期
[29] 周开国,当代信贷风险度量模型及评析,南方金融,2005 年 7 期
[30] 邹新月,VaR 方法在银行贷款风险评估中的应用,统计研究,2005 年 6 期
[31] 邵一江,商业银行的信贷风险及对策,财政金融,2005 年 5 期
[2] 王克华,货币银行学,武汉大学出版社,1996
[3] 周升业,金融理论与实务,中国财政经济出版社,2000
[4] 付正辉,商业银行资本管理与风险控制,经济日报出版社,2005
[5] 武剑,内部评级理论、方法与实务,中国金融出版社,2005
[6] 张吉光,商业银行全面风险管理,立信会计出版社,2006
[7] 弗雷德里克·S·米什金,货币金融学(第六版),中国人民大学出版社,2005
[8] 亨利·范·格罗,银行风险分析与管理(第二版—),中国人民大学出版社,2006
[9] 彼得·S·罗斯, 商业银行管理(第 5 版),机械工业出版社,2004
[10] 戴维特, 信用风险模型与巴塞尔协议 ,中国人民大学出版社,2005
[11] David F. Scott 等,现代财务管理基础(第 8 版),清华大学出版社,2004
[12] Stephen P. Robbins, Management(Eighth Edition), 清华大学出版社,2005
[13] 张东生,李艳双,企业战略管理,机械工业出版社,2005
[14] 杨明生,商业银行客户经理必读,中国金融出版社,2003
[15] 张坚红 中外银行信贷管理的比较与启示 南方金融 2002 年第 5 期
[16] 王娟 美国信用风险评估体系简介 金融时报 2002 年 9 月 16 日
[17] 李志刚, 国外商业银行信贷风险管理组织结构,中国城市金融,2003 年第 11 期
[18] 迟国泰,基于 VaR 约束的银行资产负债管理优化模型,大连理工大学学报,2002 年第 06 期
[19] 李利娜,财务分析在银行信用风险管理中的运用,广西金融研究,2002 年第 3 期
[20] 赵卫兵,我国商业银行信用风险研究,现代管理科学,2005 年 1 期
[21] 李豫,国际银行业 VaR 信贷风险技木发展与应用,金融理论与头践,2003 年 1 期
[22] 姜再勇,风险管理,当代经济研究,2000 年第 10 期
[23] 葛兆强,世界银行业发展的趋势特点与我国商业银行改革发展策略,当代经济科学,2000 年第 2 期
[24] 刘卉等,我国商业银行风险管理存在的问题及改进措施,商业银行,2004 年第 5 期
[25] 杨瑞,当前银行信贷客户信用等级评定初探,市场周刊,2005 年第 2 期
[26] 陈忠阳,信用风险量化管理模型发展探析,国际金融研究,2000 年 10 期
[27] 刘学贵,张怀雷,信用风险模型对我国商业银行适用性思,考特区经济,2005 年 1期
[28] 宋逢明、齐莹“信用矩阵”与商业银行贷款风险管理,华南金融研究,2000 年 12 期
[29] 周开国,当代信贷风险度量模型及评析,南方金融,2005 年 7 期
[30] 邹新月,VaR 方法在银行贷款风险评估中的应用,统计研究,2005 年 6 期
[31] 邵一江,商业银行的信贷风险及对策,财政金融,2005 年 5 期