金融发展对出口复杂度的影响研究
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摘要
出口复杂度作为集出口产品技术含量和生产效率为一体的综合概念,为国际贸易领域的研究提供了新视野。而金融与贸易关系方面的既有文献仍主要集中于研究金融发展与贸易量和贸易结构的关系,对金融发展与出口复杂度间关系的研究被忽视。现实中滞后的金融体制改革已经掣肘了中国的出口复杂度提升,因而对金融发展与出口复杂度的关系研究,不仅对中国顺利实现经济贸易转型,对中国金融体制改革本身也具有重要的参考价值。
出口复杂度是一国复杂产品生产能力与生产效率在国际竞争中的自然体现,因而对金融发展与出口复杂度的关系研究理应建立在产品内分工演化视角下对复杂产品核心特征的分析之上。分析发现,越是复杂的产品,其中间产品的种类越多或中间产品的异质性越强,技术复杂性以及由其引致的交易复杂性程度越高；产品生产分散化、.价值链片段化要求各国务必将异质性产品的研发和生产能力放在核心位置,这样才能占据对外贸易利益的制高点。异质性产品的研发能力是第一位的,而研发的主体又是企业。事实上,受到外部融资约束的微观企业经常必须在研发投资和生产性投资之间做出选择,因此地区金融发展会通过受融资约束企业研发投资选择路径作用于地区出口复杂度提升(企业研发促进路径)。此外,在技术不变的假设前提下,复杂产品的内部分工使得各类异质性中间产品的交易成本问题进入了本文的研究视野,产品越复杂,产品内部各类异质性中间产品的交易越频繁,交易难度越大,发达金融体系在分散风险和克服由异质性产品生产投资专用性带来的交易成本增加上具有优势,由此缓解了异质性产品的投资与生产不足问题,最终通过复杂产品与简单产品的相对价格变动机制形成金融发达地区在复杂产品生产和出口上的比较优势(交易成本节约路径)。按照上面的分析思路,基于复杂产品的技术和交易“二维”复杂性,本文分别从企业研发促进视角和交易成本节约视角构建了金融发展作用于出口复杂度提升的理论路径,并予以模型刻画,且接下来采用总-分式结构经验实证了理论分析中提出的六个命题。
借用H-O要素密集度比较优势经验模型进行的跨国“总”实证表明,金融发展是影响地区出口复杂度提升的重要因素,金融发展水平高的地区在异质性中间产品密集型复杂产品的生产和出口上具有比较优势,该结论对于不同的金融发展指标和比较优势指标均具有稳健性。
通过异质性中间产品投资指标的特色建构,运用动态面板GMM模型,本文验证了交易成本节约视角下金融发展的出口复杂度提升效应,金融发展通过缓解由资产专用性导致的异质性中间产品投资不足促进了地区出口复杂度的提升,该结论对于金融发展总指标和各分维度指标都适用。一个比较重要的发现是,金融发展在金融规模、金融效率和金融活跃度等三个维度上的出口复杂度提升效应之和小于金融发展总体的综合作用效果,佐证了金融发展的有机性和系统性以及系统“溢价”的存在性。
运用扣除加工贸易的中国各地区一般商品贸易出口复杂度指标和体现转型经济体金融发展特色的金融市场化程度指标,本文采用中国工业企业数据对企业研发促进视角下金融发展的出口复杂度提升效应进行了经验实证。研究结果表明,中国企业的研发投资倾向具有显著的内部现金流敏感度,且相较于国有企业,私营企业面临更强的外部融资约束,佐证了中国金融体系对私营企业的信贷歧视。对企业研发投资选择路径下金融发展的出口复杂度提升效应的研究表明,在全中国范围以及中国中部和东部地区,金融发展经由企业研发投资倾向提高来提升地区出口复杂度的效应均很显著,该积极效应对相应区域内的国有企业和私营企业同样适用,且对私营企业的作用效果大于国有企业,说明金融发展总体上更有利于发挥私营企业的高效率。西部地区较为特殊,该地区的金融发展虽尚未达到充分激发私营企业创新投资的“门槛”,但却通过倒逼机制提高了国有企业的研发投资倾向,进而对该地区的出口复杂度提升起到了积极作用。
基于上述理论和经验研究结论,本文提出充分发挥金融体系出口复杂度提升效应的三点建议：放开金融市场准入,实施利率市场化改革,提高金融效率；完善金融结构,实现金融体系内部多层次多元化均衡发展；实施差异化的区域金融发展战略。金融发展对出口复杂度作用机制的“二维”理论构建,有助于我们有机地把握中国经济转型过程中金融与贸易两个关键点,运用金融和贸易两者间的联动机制,通过深化金融体制改革以点带面地内生推动中国经济贸易的转型升级。
Export sophistication, an integrated concept of exports'technology content and productivity, extends a new horizon to research on international trade. Up to now, attention on the research between finance and trade has been drawn to trade volume and structure, and export sophistication has been overlooked. In fact, the lagged financial system has limited China's elevation in export sophistication. Research on the relationship between financial development and export sophistication will be meaningful to foreign trade transformation and financial system reform.
As export sophistication upgrading is a natural ending of one nation's capacity and productivity in manufacturing complexities, reseach on the relationship between financial development and export sophistication should be based on the analysis of characteristics of the complexities in the view of the intra-product division. It found that more complicated goods have more varieties and stronger heterogeneity in its intermediates'and are of high complexity in transaction and technology. Fragmented value chains make the R&D and production capability in heterogeneous goods the keys to get more benefit from foreign trade, and among it, R&D is the most important. Enterprises, as the major players in the activities of R&D, are often finance-constrained and have to make choices between investment in R&D and production, thus local financial development will work on export sophistication by route of enterprises'tendency in choosing investment in R&D. Furthermore, under the assumption of constant technology, intra-product division in complexities makes transaction costs among heterogeneous intermediates the other important view to this research. More complicated goods have more frequent and difficult transactions between its intermediates, and effective financial system has advantages in conquering transaction costs in consequence of the asset specificity of heterogeneous intermediates, alleviating the underinvestment in producing heterogeneous intermediates and forming the comparative advantage in complexities through the mechanism of relative price between the complicated goods and the simple ones. In all, we constructed the dual mechanisms of financial development working on export sophistication, mathematically modeled them and provided six theoretical hypotheses which we empirically tested in the following parts of this paper.
With the empirically test model of H-O factor-intensive comparative advantage, it found that financial development is an important factor to enhance the exports'sophistication. Regions with high-level financial development have comparative advantage in complexities intensive of heterogeneous intermediates, that is robust to different proxy variables for financial development or comparative advantage.
Based on the specially constructed indicators of investment in heterogeneous intermediates, we test the effect of financial development working on the exports'sophistication by the path of transaction-cost saving with the dynamic panel GMM Model, which is verified via alleviating underinvestment in producing heterogenous intermediates on account of asset specificity and robust to overall and sub variables indicating financial development. One important finding was that the sum effect of the three sub variables (financial scale, financial efficiency and financial activity) is less than effect of the overall variable of financial development, which suggests organic and systematic financial system and the existence of "system premium".
Based on the construction of two special indicators, exports'sophistication with deduction of processing trade and financial development proxied by financial marketizing index reflecting the characteristics of Economies in transition, we empirically test the effect of financial development working on exports'sophistication through the path of promoting enterprises to invest in R&D by using China's industrial enterprises'data. The study shows that the tendency to invest in R&D depends heavily on the cash flow of Chinese enterprises'and compared to state-owned enterprises, private firms faced more financial outsourcing constraints, that supports the banks'credit discrimination on enterprises of different ownership in China. The further empirical test shows that except the western area, in the whole China or the middle or east area, the effect of financial development working on exports'sophistication via the increasing of tendency for enterprises to choose investment in R&D is significant and this positive effect works on both of state-owned and private enterprises in these areas, but for the latter it is more significant. The level of financial development in the western area still don't cross the threshold to motivate private firms to invest in innovation, but financial marketization have forced the state-owned enterprises to compete and innovate, and finally promoted the exports'sophistication of this area.
Based on the theoretical and empirical conclusions, we provide three suggestions to elevate China's exports'sophistication. Firstly, the financial market needs to enter freely, interests should be marketized and financial effeciency should be enhanced; Secondly, financial structure should be optimized and harmonious financial system must be attained; The third is to implement regionalized strategy to develop financial market. This research will benefit China to apply the working mechanisms between financial development and exports'sophistication to endogenously promote economic structure upgrading and sustainable development by deepening China's financial system reform.
出口复杂度是一国复杂产品生产能力与生产效率在国际竞争中的自然体现,因而对金融发展与出口复杂度的关系研究理应建立在产品内分工演化视角下对复杂产品核心特征的分析之上。分析发现,越是复杂的产品,其中间产品的种类越多或中间产品的异质性越强,技术复杂性以及由其引致的交易复杂性程度越高；产品生产分散化、.价值链片段化要求各国务必将异质性产品的研发和生产能力放在核心位置,这样才能占据对外贸易利益的制高点。异质性产品的研发能力是第一位的,而研发的主体又是企业。事实上,受到外部融资约束的微观企业经常必须在研发投资和生产性投资之间做出选择,因此地区金融发展会通过受融资约束企业研发投资选择路径作用于地区出口复杂度提升(企业研发促进路径)。此外,在技术不变的假设前提下,复杂产品的内部分工使得各类异质性中间产品的交易成本问题进入了本文的研究视野,产品越复杂,产品内部各类异质性中间产品的交易越频繁,交易难度越大,发达金融体系在分散风险和克服由异质性产品生产投资专用性带来的交易成本增加上具有优势,由此缓解了异质性产品的投资与生产不足问题,最终通过复杂产品与简单产品的相对价格变动机制形成金融发达地区在复杂产品生产和出口上的比较优势(交易成本节约路径)。按照上面的分析思路,基于复杂产品的技术和交易“二维”复杂性,本文分别从企业研发促进视角和交易成本节约视角构建了金融发展作用于出口复杂度提升的理论路径,并予以模型刻画,且接下来采用总-分式结构经验实证了理论分析中提出的六个命题。
借用H-O要素密集度比较优势经验模型进行的跨国“总”实证表明,金融发展是影响地区出口复杂度提升的重要因素,金融发展水平高的地区在异质性中间产品密集型复杂产品的生产和出口上具有比较优势,该结论对于不同的金融发展指标和比较优势指标均具有稳健性。
通过异质性中间产品投资指标的特色建构,运用动态面板GMM模型,本文验证了交易成本节约视角下金融发展的出口复杂度提升效应,金融发展通过缓解由资产专用性导致的异质性中间产品投资不足促进了地区出口复杂度的提升,该结论对于金融发展总指标和各分维度指标都适用。一个比较重要的发现是,金融发展在金融规模、金融效率和金融活跃度等三个维度上的出口复杂度提升效应之和小于金融发展总体的综合作用效果,佐证了金融发展的有机性和系统性以及系统“溢价”的存在性。
运用扣除加工贸易的中国各地区一般商品贸易出口复杂度指标和体现转型经济体金融发展特色的金融市场化程度指标,本文采用中国工业企业数据对企业研发促进视角下金融发展的出口复杂度提升效应进行了经验实证。研究结果表明,中国企业的研发投资倾向具有显著的内部现金流敏感度,且相较于国有企业,私营企业面临更强的外部融资约束,佐证了中国金融体系对私营企业的信贷歧视。对企业研发投资选择路径下金融发展的出口复杂度提升效应的研究表明,在全中国范围以及中国中部和东部地区,金融发展经由企业研发投资倾向提高来提升地区出口复杂度的效应均很显著,该积极效应对相应区域内的国有企业和私营企业同样适用,且对私营企业的作用效果大于国有企业,说明金融发展总体上更有利于发挥私营企业的高效率。西部地区较为特殊,该地区的金融发展虽尚未达到充分激发私营企业创新投资的“门槛”,但却通过倒逼机制提高了国有企业的研发投资倾向,进而对该地区的出口复杂度提升起到了积极作用。
基于上述理论和经验研究结论,本文提出充分发挥金融体系出口复杂度提升效应的三点建议：放开金融市场准入,实施利率市场化改革,提高金融效率；完善金融结构,实现金融体系内部多层次多元化均衡发展；实施差异化的区域金融发展战略。金融发展对出口复杂度作用机制的“二维”理论构建,有助于我们有机地把握中国经济转型过程中金融与贸易两个关键点,运用金融和贸易两者间的联动机制,通过深化金融体制改革以点带面地内生推动中国经济贸易的转型升级。
Export sophistication, an integrated concept of exports'technology content and productivity, extends a new horizon to research on international trade. Up to now, attention on the research between finance and trade has been drawn to trade volume and structure, and export sophistication has been overlooked. In fact, the lagged financial system has limited China's elevation in export sophistication. Research on the relationship between financial development and export sophistication will be meaningful to foreign trade transformation and financial system reform.
As export sophistication upgrading is a natural ending of one nation's capacity and productivity in manufacturing complexities, reseach on the relationship between financial development and export sophistication should be based on the analysis of characteristics of the complexities in the view of the intra-product division. It found that more complicated goods have more varieties and stronger heterogeneity in its intermediates'and are of high complexity in transaction and technology. Fragmented value chains make the R&D and production capability in heterogeneous goods the keys to get more benefit from foreign trade, and among it, R&D is the most important. Enterprises, as the major players in the activities of R&D, are often finance-constrained and have to make choices between investment in R&D and production, thus local financial development will work on export sophistication by route of enterprises'tendency in choosing investment in R&D. Furthermore, under the assumption of constant technology, intra-product division in complexities makes transaction costs among heterogeneous intermediates the other important view to this research. More complicated goods have more frequent and difficult transactions between its intermediates, and effective financial system has advantages in conquering transaction costs in consequence of the asset specificity of heterogeneous intermediates, alleviating the underinvestment in producing heterogeneous intermediates and forming the comparative advantage in complexities through the mechanism of relative price between the complicated goods and the simple ones. In all, we constructed the dual mechanisms of financial development working on export sophistication, mathematically modeled them and provided six theoretical hypotheses which we empirically tested in the following parts of this paper.
With the empirically test model of H-O factor-intensive comparative advantage, it found that financial development is an important factor to enhance the exports'sophistication. Regions with high-level financial development have comparative advantage in complexities intensive of heterogeneous intermediates, that is robust to different proxy variables for financial development or comparative advantage.
Based on the specially constructed indicators of investment in heterogeneous intermediates, we test the effect of financial development working on the exports'sophistication by the path of transaction-cost saving with the dynamic panel GMM Model, which is verified via alleviating underinvestment in producing heterogenous intermediates on account of asset specificity and robust to overall and sub variables indicating financial development. One important finding was that the sum effect of the three sub variables (financial scale, financial efficiency and financial activity) is less than effect of the overall variable of financial development, which suggests organic and systematic financial system and the existence of "system premium".
Based on the construction of two special indicators, exports'sophistication with deduction of processing trade and financial development proxied by financial marketizing index reflecting the characteristics of Economies in transition, we empirically test the effect of financial development working on exports'sophistication through the path of promoting enterprises to invest in R&D by using China's industrial enterprises'data. The study shows that the tendency to invest in R&D depends heavily on the cash flow of Chinese enterprises'and compared to state-owned enterprises, private firms faced more financial outsourcing constraints, that supports the banks'credit discrimination on enterprises of different ownership in China. The further empirical test shows that except the western area, in the whole China or the middle or east area, the effect of financial development working on exports'sophistication via the increasing of tendency for enterprises to choose investment in R&D is significant and this positive effect works on both of state-owned and private enterprises in these areas, but for the latter it is more significant. The level of financial development in the western area still don't cross the threshold to motivate private firms to invest in innovation, but financial marketization have forced the state-owned enterprises to compete and innovate, and finally promoted the exports'sophistication of this area.
Based on the theoretical and empirical conclusions, we provide three suggestions to elevate China's exports'sophistication. Firstly, the financial market needs to enter freely, interests should be marketized and financial effeciency should be enhanced; Secondly, financial structure should be optimized and harmonious financial system must be attained; The third is to implement regionalized strategy to develop financial market. This research will benefit China to apply the working mechanisms between financial development and exports'sophistication to endogenously promote economic structure upgrading and sustainable development by deepening China's financial system reform.
引文
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