我国外债规模的影响因素分析
摘要
在经济全球化发展的今天,引进外债越来越成为全球各国发展经济的手段之一,特别是对发展中国家具有重要意义。然而,在利用外债推动经济发展的同时,外债规模管理不善等原因引发的金融危机严重损害了发展中国家的经济。近年来,我国的外债规模不断增加,巨大的外债规模给我国的金融安全造成了潜在威胁。在全球经济一体化趋势下,客观审视外债的经济效应,深入对外债问题的研究,加强对外债规模的管理,对我国有效利用外债、发展社会主义市场经济有着非常重要的现实意义。
本文介绍了我国外债的发展历程与规模现状,分析了国家政策、国民经济水平、财政赤字和国际收支等因素对我国外债规模的影响。运用灰色关联分析的方法,引用影响我国外债规模方面的有关数据,确定了影响我国外债规模的主要因素。分析结果显示:外汇储备、出口总额、进口总额、居民储蓄存款余额是影响我国外债规模的主要因素。另外,本文还介绍了泰国、巴西、俄罗斯的外债规模发展与外债规模管理,为我国的外债规模管理提供了有益的借鉴,并进一步提出了我国外债规模管理方面的政策建议。
Since the 1980s, many developing countries used foreign debt to shake off the backward situation and develop the country's economic. Foreign debt borrowing played a very important role on the development of the developing country: make up for the shortfall in funds, promote the upgrading of the industrial structure, expand exports and promote rapid economic growth. However, the debt crisis erupted unceasingly for the nearly 20 years, caused the foreign debt practice of the developing country to receive more and more questions. Therefore, under the world economics integration's background, carefully examines the economic effect of the foreign debt objectively again, deepens the research of the foreign debt, strengthens to the foreign debt scale management, will have a vital practical significance in the use of the foreign debt effectively and the development of socialist market economy. Borrowing foreign debt is an important form of using foreign capital. It has an important significance in accelerating the economic development, strengthening the macroeconomic regulation and the industry restructures controlling. But on the other hand, borrowing foreign debt needs to repay principal and interest. It may cause debt crisis if the foreign debt scale has surpassed our country economy actual need and the credit capacity.
Specially along with the depth of the economic globalization advancement's and the unceasing innovation of the money markets, international capital movement's scale expands day by day, the flowing speed is also getting quicker and quicker, and the foreign debt implication's risk is also getting bigger and bigger.
Based on the above consideration and unified my interest, I has conducted the analytical study on factors influencing scale of foreign debt in some correlation theories and above the practice foundation. I hope that can provide beneficial model for the later research.
This article altogether divides into seven chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, mainly introduced this article research background, the research significance, the research content and the research technique. The second chapter first introduced the related foreign debt theory.
Looking from the foreign debt theory development, the special studies related to the foreign debt were quite few in the early time. The viewpoints of the related foreign debt's scale, the management, and payment manifested most in the bond theory. The Kinesis’bond view is the most representative one. The development economic theory later :
Harrod-Domar development model and H.Chenery“the double gap theory”, only then truly discussed the foreign debt as the international economic development method. This article also introduced Knox foreign debt theory and other foreign loan viewpoint; these theories had a important guiding sense to study the analysis of foreign debt.
The third and fourth chapter introduced the foreign debt development and the present scale situation of our country. It used canonical parse method to analyze the influence of foreign debt policy, national economy level, budget deficit and payments position f. The research discovered that our country's foreign debt policy, the national economy level and the payments position were affecting our country's foreign loan scale to a certain extent. GDP, the balance of household savings deposits,the import and export condition and the foreign exchange reserve have important influence to our foreign debt scale. A country's economic development was deciding the scale of the foreign debt, this is because the development level of the productive forces, commodity economy's degree of development is the basic causes for the foreign debt. National financial circumstance directly decides foreign debt scale, structure, use, benefit and final repayment situation. A country's payments position and the size of foreign debt scale is closely linked, this is because the international trade relations' development was deciding the international credit relation's development. Export capacities of a country decide the payment of the foreign debt, and decide finally whether the cycle of the foreign debt carries on smoothly.
The fifth chapter used the method of the gray connection analysis. It quoted related data of the foreign debt scale, and carried on the empirical analysis and the standard research, discussed and analyzed the main factors of foreign debt scale. The main factors include: foreign exchange reserve, total export, gross import, the balance of household savings deposits. The more the foreign exchange reserve is, the more it will repay and borrow. Along with the violent inflow of the international capital, foreign exchange reserve inflated suddenly, and had became one of primary causes that our foreign debt scale increased. The other two important attributes are the total export and the gross import. Since 2001, we had added foreign financing under the trade credit within 3 months to the foreign debt statistics. So the trade credit volume by the cargo import and export increased year by year, and caused the short-term foreign debt sudden growth. The balance of household savings deposits also became one of the main factors that influence our foreign debt scale.
The sixth chapter introduced Thai, Brazil, and the Russian foreign debt scale development and the scale management, which have provided beneficial model to our foreign debt scale management: First ,we should pay great attention to the use of the foreign debt in the foreign debt scale management to enhance the foreign debt operational effectiveness. Second, we should enhance the foreign exchange reserve ability and export ability, so that we would have enough ability to repay the due debt and avoided the debt crisis.
The seventh chapter is this article conclusion part. According to the above analysis of the foreign debt scale management, the international experience and the lesson, actual situation of the foreign debt management, we recommend the foreign debt management measure. First, standardize and improve the foreign debt management system, establish a sound monitoring system for foreign debt. Second, optimize the structure of foreign debt; improve the structure of foreign debt. We can optimize the structure of foreign debt through the four directions: period, currency, interest rates and the source. Third, arrange for the orientation of foreign debt reasonably; strengthen the use of foreign debt management. Fourth, strengthen the foreign debt risk management. Strengthen the foreign debt risk management, we should first consummate and perfect the guard mechanism of the debt risk .Second, the government should supervise the project and the audit work. Third, establish and improve the loan reserve mechanism. Through the establishment of loan reserve system, scatter and reduce the local government’s debt burden, so as to avoid the accumulation of financial risks.
本文介绍了我国外债的发展历程与规模现状,分析了国家政策、国民经济水平、财政赤字和国际收支等因素对我国外债规模的影响。运用灰色关联分析的方法,引用影响我国外债规模方面的有关数据,确定了影响我国外债规模的主要因素。分析结果显示:外汇储备、出口总额、进口总额、居民储蓄存款余额是影响我国外债规模的主要因素。另外,本文还介绍了泰国、巴西、俄罗斯的外债规模发展与外债规模管理,为我国的外债规模管理提供了有益的借鉴,并进一步提出了我国外债规模管理方面的政策建议。
Since the 1980s, many developing countries used foreign debt to shake off the backward situation and develop the country's economic. Foreign debt borrowing played a very important role on the development of the developing country: make up for the shortfall in funds, promote the upgrading of the industrial structure, expand exports and promote rapid economic growth. However, the debt crisis erupted unceasingly for the nearly 20 years, caused the foreign debt practice of the developing country to receive more and more questions. Therefore, under the world economics integration's background, carefully examines the economic effect of the foreign debt objectively again, deepens the research of the foreign debt, strengthens to the foreign debt scale management, will have a vital practical significance in the use of the foreign debt effectively and the development of socialist market economy. Borrowing foreign debt is an important form of using foreign capital. It has an important significance in accelerating the economic development, strengthening the macroeconomic regulation and the industry restructures controlling. But on the other hand, borrowing foreign debt needs to repay principal and interest. It may cause debt crisis if the foreign debt scale has surpassed our country economy actual need and the credit capacity.
Specially along with the depth of the economic globalization advancement's and the unceasing innovation of the money markets, international capital movement's scale expands day by day, the flowing speed is also getting quicker and quicker, and the foreign debt implication's risk is also getting bigger and bigger.
Based on the above consideration and unified my interest, I has conducted the analytical study on factors influencing scale of foreign debt in some correlation theories and above the practice foundation. I hope that can provide beneficial model for the later research.
This article altogether divides into seven chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, mainly introduced this article research background, the research significance, the research content and the research technique. The second chapter first introduced the related foreign debt theory.
Looking from the foreign debt theory development, the special studies related to the foreign debt were quite few in the early time. The viewpoints of the related foreign debt's scale, the management, and payment manifested most in the bond theory. The Kinesis’bond view is the most representative one. The development economic theory later :
Harrod-Domar development model and H.Chenery“the double gap theory”, only then truly discussed the foreign debt as the international economic development method. This article also introduced Knox foreign debt theory and other foreign loan viewpoint; these theories had a important guiding sense to study the analysis of foreign debt.
The third and fourth chapter introduced the foreign debt development and the present scale situation of our country. It used canonical parse method to analyze the influence of foreign debt policy, national economy level, budget deficit and payments position f. The research discovered that our country's foreign debt policy, the national economy level and the payments position were affecting our country's foreign loan scale to a certain extent. GDP, the balance of household savings deposits,the import and export condition and the foreign exchange reserve have important influence to our foreign debt scale. A country's economic development was deciding the scale of the foreign debt, this is because the development level of the productive forces, commodity economy's degree of development is the basic causes for the foreign debt. National financial circumstance directly decides foreign debt scale, structure, use, benefit and final repayment situation. A country's payments position and the size of foreign debt scale is closely linked, this is because the international trade relations' development was deciding the international credit relation's development. Export capacities of a country decide the payment of the foreign debt, and decide finally whether the cycle of the foreign debt carries on smoothly.
The fifth chapter used the method of the gray connection analysis. It quoted related data of the foreign debt scale, and carried on the empirical analysis and the standard research, discussed and analyzed the main factors of foreign debt scale. The main factors include: foreign exchange reserve, total export, gross import, the balance of household savings deposits. The more the foreign exchange reserve is, the more it will repay and borrow. Along with the violent inflow of the international capital, foreign exchange reserve inflated suddenly, and had became one of primary causes that our foreign debt scale increased. The other two important attributes are the total export and the gross import. Since 2001, we had added foreign financing under the trade credit within 3 months to the foreign debt statistics. So the trade credit volume by the cargo import and export increased year by year, and caused the short-term foreign debt sudden growth. The balance of household savings deposits also became one of the main factors that influence our foreign debt scale.
The sixth chapter introduced Thai, Brazil, and the Russian foreign debt scale development and the scale management, which have provided beneficial model to our foreign debt scale management: First ,we should pay great attention to the use of the foreign debt in the foreign debt scale management to enhance the foreign debt operational effectiveness. Second, we should enhance the foreign exchange reserve ability and export ability, so that we would have enough ability to repay the due debt and avoided the debt crisis.
The seventh chapter is this article conclusion part. According to the above analysis of the foreign debt scale management, the international experience and the lesson, actual situation of the foreign debt management, we recommend the foreign debt management measure. First, standardize and improve the foreign debt management system, establish a sound monitoring system for foreign debt. Second, optimize the structure of foreign debt; improve the structure of foreign debt. We can optimize the structure of foreign debt through the four directions: period, currency, interest rates and the source. Third, arrange for the orientation of foreign debt reasonably; strengthen the use of foreign debt management. Fourth, strengthen the foreign debt risk management. Strengthen the foreign debt risk management, we should first consummate and perfect the guard mechanism of the debt risk .Second, the government should supervise the project and the audit work. Third, establish and improve the loan reserve mechanism. Through the establishment of loan reserve system, scatter and reduce the local government’s debt burden, so as to avoid the accumulation of financial risks.
引文
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[2] 慕刘伟.国际投融资理论与实务[M]. 西南财经大学出版社,2004.
[3] 刘思峰、党耀国、方国耕.灰色系统理论及其应用(第三版)[M].科学出版社,2004.
[4] 付晓峰.外债新论[M].西南财经大学出版社,2003.
[5] 高培勇.公共债务管理[M].经济科学出版社,2002.
[6] 王国华.外债与社会经济发展[M].经济科学出版社,2002.
[7] 刘华.公债的经济效应研究[M].中国社会科学出版社,2001.
[8] 杨大楷.国债风险管理[M].上海财经大学出版社,2001.
[9] 陈共.财政学[M].中国人民大学出版社,1999.
[10] 陆根芜、杨义群.数量经济学杭州:浙江大学出版社,2000.
[11] 高坚.中国国债市场化进程研究[M].上海:社会科学院出版社,1997.
[12] 任海华.经济发展与利用外资规模[M].武汉大学出版社,1997.
[13] 高培勇.国债运行机制研究[M].商务印书馆,1995.
[14] 唐思宁.外债系统分析及应用研究[M].中国人民大学出版社,1995.
[15] 张志超.目际债务:经济增长与政策选择[M].陕西人民出版社,1993.
[16] 邓于基.公债经济学[M].中国财政经济出版社,1990.
[17] 亚当·斯密(Adam Smith),杨敬年译. 国富论[M].陕西人民出版社,1999.
[18] 凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].中国财经出版社,1987.
[19] 詹姆斯·M·布坎南.公共债务的公共原则[M].中国财经出版社,1988.
[20] 张弛. 中国政府外债管理体制的现状、问题及对策 [J].中国集体经济,2007(09).
[21] 曹鑫.外汇储备规模与其高速增长的供求分析 [J].经济与社会发展,2006(09).
[22] 周新德、段美华.我国目前的外债风险分析与防范 [J].商业研究,2006(14).
[23] 高芳.西方经济学公债理论综述[N].平原大学学报,2006(04).
[24] 姚允柱、张国强.中国外债规模与经济增长的相关性分析[J].经济师,2006(08).
[25] 李石凯. 外汇储备vs外债:其实我们“脱贫”没多久[J]. 经济导刊,2006(10).
[26] 陈柳钦.俄罗斯外债危机后的债务重组[J].经济导刊,2006(04).
[27] 单忠东、孙文先.中国外债适度规模与风险管理[J].经济导刊,2005(06).
[28] 林鸿熙.经济开放过程中实行弹性外债规模管理模式的分析[J].商业研究,2005(03).
[29] 李圆.外债猛增不意味整体风险增加[J].金融信息参考,2004(11).
[30] 彭志远.西方公债理论的新发展[J].经济与管理,2003(11).
[31] 杨文进.我国国债规模及风险研究[J].财税问题研究,2003(01).
[32] 刘星、阎庆民.区域性外债规模的实证分析[J].金融研究,2003(05).
[33] 彭志远.凯恩斯主义国债理论与我国国债政策[J].财经研究,2002(04).
[34] 杨立民.巴西陷入金融动荡漩涡[J].国际观察家,2002(30).
[35] 江时学.韩国与巴西工业化道路比较[J].当代亚太,2002(04).
[36] 牛鸿.对外借债和直接投资的比较分析[J].中国外汇管理,2000(06).
[37] 王晓峰、林君.试论合理外债规模的确定[J].中国外汇管理,2000(12).
[38] 王中华.我国外债管理问题探讨[J].财经理论与实践,2000(05).
[39] 杨义群、钟兴文.国债筹资成本优化研究[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究,2000(10).
[40] 韦士歌.中国国债管理政策透析[J].国际金融研究,2000(03).
[41] 刘茵.欧洲三国国债发行市场概况及对中国的启示[J].国际金融研究,2000(05).
[42] 杨义群,钟兴文.国债筹资成本优化的数学模型[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2000(10).
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