突发自然灾害救灾物资分配优化决策研究
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摘要
频繁发生的各种类型的突发自然灾害,如地震、洪水、冰雪灾害等,给社会带来了巨大的危害和深远的影响。因此,应对突发自然灾害的应急管理研究和实际运作成为当前管理学领域的研究热点。其中,应急资源的管理是应急管理的核心问题之一。灾害发生后,快速到位的应急物资分配,能够有力的保障救援工作的开展,因此物资分配是应急资源管理的重要内容。本文主要针对突发自然灾害发生后,研究在应急救灾物资供给不足的情况下,如何根据应急物资的需求,对救灾物资进行快速分配决策的问题。
从决策方案优化的角度,本文主要解决两个问题。一是存在潜在应急物资需求情形下的应急物资分配优化决策问题,主要考虑突发自然灾害所导致的次生衍生灾害会引发受灾区域存在潜在的对应急救灾物资的需求,决策者制定分配方案时需要考虑物资需求的不确定性。二是考虑应急物资分配多个参与主体行为因素的多阶段应急救灾物资分配优化问题,主要分析受灾地区救灾部门的需求上报和上级救灾主管部门的物资分配策略对应急物资分配的影响,进而快速做出救灾物资分配决策。
论文研究思路是分析突发自然发生后的灾害情境,以供需分析一模型构建一分配方案快速决策为主线研究救灾物资分配优化决策问题。主要研究内容包括：
1、根据突发自然灾害的现状和特征和救灾物资的结构,分析了应急物资分配的需求和供给特性,重点提出突发自然灾害应急物资供需匹配需要考虑的影响因素,将应急物资的分配划分为推动式物资分配和拉动式物资分配,并指出救灾初期的物资分配以拉动式分配为主。
2、分析突发自然灾害存在次生、衍生灾害的情形,考虑应急物资需求量和物资急需程度不确定、路况受损的情况,引入概率规划的思想将潜在的物资需求和确定的物资需求统一化,依据救灾响应时间最短、物资需求满足率最高并兼顾成本的分配目标,建立应急物资分配优化模型,并设计算法加以求解。
3、考虑实际情形下的应物资分配决策过程,针对灾区物资需求的上报决策者和应急物资集散中心应急物资分配决策者的决策行为,分析不同层次决策者行为因素对救灾分配决策的影响,建立应急物资需求大于供给约束下的应急物资分配双层决策优化模型,并设计算例,验证模型的有效性。
Various natural disasters have been occurring more and more frequently in recent years and have brought about huge damage both to the society and the population living in it. As a discipline to cope with natural disasters and their influence, emergency management as well as its applications in practical relief operations has become a hot topic. The management of emergency resources is a key component in emergency management. As a part of emergency resource management, the allocation of relief supplies supports the rescue work to a large extent. This dissertation carried out research into the allocation of rescue supplies to the affected areas in the first time in the constraint of supply shortage.
This thesis focused on two aspects of the allocation optimization problem. For the one thing, the uncertainty of demand due to the complexity and unpredictability of natural disasters was discussed. For the another thing, the behavioral factors of the decision-makers in the process of allocating the limited supplies were taken into consideration
On basis of the analysis of the disaster context, we carried out research into the optimization of relief supply allocation through analyzing the demand from affected areas, problem formulation and making rapid decisions in the viewpoint of decision makers. The main contents of the study can be summarized as the following three aspects.
1. The current status and the trend of the natural disasters were studied, based on which we pointed out the characteristics of the demand and supply for relief supplies and figured out the main factors influencing the matching of demand and supplies in the allocation process. We categorized the allocation into the pushing and pulling modes and the latter mode is the common one applied to the first time allocation of resources.
2. We took the scenario of secondary and derivative disasters into consideration and analyzed the change in demand brought by these disasters. The uncertain demand was converted into the potential demand through applying the probability programming method. A nonlinear mixed-integer model was formulated with multiple objectives to solve the problem of the assignment planning in the context of multi-demand-point, multi-storage-depot with limited amount of rescue supplies.
3. To simulate the practical allocation process in the immediate aftermath of natural disasters and measure the bounded rational behaviors of the decision-makers both in the distribution centers and in the affected areas, we furthered the proposed model into a bi-level programming one with the objectives of maximizing the equity and the degree of satisfaction respectively in the upper and lower level.
从决策方案优化的角度,本文主要解决两个问题。一是存在潜在应急物资需求情形下的应急物资分配优化决策问题,主要考虑突发自然灾害所导致的次生衍生灾害会引发受灾区域存在潜在的对应急救灾物资的需求,决策者制定分配方案时需要考虑物资需求的不确定性。二是考虑应急物资分配多个参与主体行为因素的多阶段应急救灾物资分配优化问题,主要分析受灾地区救灾部门的需求上报和上级救灾主管部门的物资分配策略对应急物资分配的影响,进而快速做出救灾物资分配决策。
论文研究思路是分析突发自然发生后的灾害情境,以供需分析一模型构建一分配方案快速决策为主线研究救灾物资分配优化决策问题。主要研究内容包括：
1、根据突发自然灾害的现状和特征和救灾物资的结构,分析了应急物资分配的需求和供给特性,重点提出突发自然灾害应急物资供需匹配需要考虑的影响因素,将应急物资的分配划分为推动式物资分配和拉动式物资分配,并指出救灾初期的物资分配以拉动式分配为主。
2、分析突发自然灾害存在次生、衍生灾害的情形,考虑应急物资需求量和物资急需程度不确定、路况受损的情况,引入概率规划的思想将潜在的物资需求和确定的物资需求统一化,依据救灾响应时间最短、物资需求满足率最高并兼顾成本的分配目标,建立应急物资分配优化模型,并设计算法加以求解。
3、考虑实际情形下的应物资分配决策过程,针对灾区物资需求的上报决策者和应急物资集散中心应急物资分配决策者的决策行为,分析不同层次决策者行为因素对救灾分配决策的影响,建立应急物资需求大于供给约束下的应急物资分配双层决策优化模型,并设计算例,验证模型的有效性。
Various natural disasters have been occurring more and more frequently in recent years and have brought about huge damage both to the society and the population living in it. As a discipline to cope with natural disasters and their influence, emergency management as well as its applications in practical relief operations has become a hot topic. The management of emergency resources is a key component in emergency management. As a part of emergency resource management, the allocation of relief supplies supports the rescue work to a large extent. This dissertation carried out research into the allocation of rescue supplies to the affected areas in the first time in the constraint of supply shortage.
This thesis focused on two aspects of the allocation optimization problem. For the one thing, the uncertainty of demand due to the complexity and unpredictability of natural disasters was discussed. For the another thing, the behavioral factors of the decision-makers in the process of allocating the limited supplies were taken into consideration
On basis of the analysis of the disaster context, we carried out research into the optimization of relief supply allocation through analyzing the demand from affected areas, problem formulation and making rapid decisions in the viewpoint of decision makers. The main contents of the study can be summarized as the following three aspects.
1. The current status and the trend of the natural disasters were studied, based on which we pointed out the characteristics of the demand and supply for relief supplies and figured out the main factors influencing the matching of demand and supplies in the allocation process. We categorized the allocation into the pushing and pulling modes and the latter mode is the common one applied to the first time allocation of resources.
2. We took the scenario of secondary and derivative disasters into consideration and analyzed the change in demand brought by these disasters. The uncertain demand was converted into the potential demand through applying the probability programming method. A nonlinear mixed-integer model was formulated with multiple objectives to solve the problem of the assignment planning in the context of multi-demand-point, multi-storage-depot with limited amount of rescue supplies.
3. To simulate the practical allocation process in the immediate aftermath of natural disasters and measure the bounded rational behaviors of the decision-makers both in the distribution centers and in the affected areas, we furthered the proposed model into a bi-level programming one with the objectives of maximizing the equity and the degree of satisfaction respectively in the upper and lower level.
引文
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[6]傅志妍,陈坚.灾害应急物资需求预测模型研究[J],物流科技,2009,10：11-13.
[7]王炜,刘茂.基于CBR的突发公共事件应急资源需求预测方法[J],安全与环境学报,2010,10(5)：217-220.
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[10]赵林度,刘明,戴东甫.面向脉冲需求的应急资源调度问题研究[J],东南大学学报(自然科学版),2008,38(6)：1116-1120.
[11]孙颖,池宏,贾传亮等.多路径下应急资源调度的非线性混合整数规划模型[J].运筹与管理,2007,16(5)：5-8.
[12]杨保华,方志耕,刘思峰等.基于GERT网络的应急抢险过程资源优化配置模型研究[J],管理学报,2011,8(12)：1879-1883。
[13]方磊.基于偏好DEA模型的应急资源优化配置[J].系统工程理论与实践,2008,28(5)：98-104.
[14]于辉,刘洋.应急物资的两阶段局内分配策略[J].系统工程理论实践,2011,31(3)：394-403.
[15]F. Fiedrich, F. Gehbauer, and U. Rickers. Optimized resource allocation for emergency response after earthquake disasters [J], Safety Science,2000,35, (1-3):41-57.
[16]Mei-Shiang Chang, Ya-Ling Tseng, Jing-Wen Chen. A scenario planning approach for the flood emergency logistics preparation problem under uncertainty [J], Transportation Research Part E:Logistics and Transportation Review,2007,43(6): 737-754.
[17]Richard Oloruntoba, Richard Gray. Customer service in emergency relief chains [J], International Journal of Physical Distribution& Logistics Management,2009,39 (6): 486-505.
[18]刘春林,何建敏,盛照瀚,应急系统多出救点选择问题的模糊规划方法[J],管理工程学报,1999,13(3),21-24.
[19]何建敏,刘春林,尤海燕.应急系统多出救点的选择问题[J],系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(11)：89-93.
[20]刘春林,施建军,李春雨.模糊应急系统组合优化方案选择问题的研究[J],管理工程学报,2002,26(2)：25-25.
[21]刘春林,沈厚才.一类离散应急供应系统的两目标优化模型[J],中国管理科学,2003,11(4)：27-31.
[22]刘春林,何建敏,盛照瀚.多出救点应急系统最优方案的选取[J],管理工程学报,2000,14(1),13-15.
[23]刘春林,何建敏,施建军.一类应急物资调度的优化模型研究[J],中国管理科学,2001,9(3)：29-36.
[24]刘春林,盛照瀚,何建敏.基于连续消耗应急系统的多出救点选择问题[J],管理工程学报,1999,13(3)：13-16.
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