东南欧六个国家利用FDI能力比较研究
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摘要
外商直接投资(FDI)一直是发展中国家尤其是经济转型国家经济发展的重要力量,是提升东道国企业国际竞争力的重要途径。许多发展中国家尤其是经济转型的国家在经济发展的进程中都通过大力引进FDI来促进本国经济的快速增长,因为FDI不像对冲基金等其他国际金融资本那样具有较大投机性,相反其一般能促进东道国技术进步和经济增长,所以很多国家,尤其是发展中国家一般都利用各种优惠政策来吸引FDI。
但是,随着各国吸引FDI力度的加大,如何科学、客观地评估各国利用FDI的能力,进而制定相应的外资政策以进一步提高东道国利用FDI能力已成为一个重要研究课题。然而,既有研究FDI的文献中对此专题研究很少,尤其是基于东南欧国家间的比较研究目前尚未出现。基于此,本文将从近年来东南欧国家经济发展的实际情况出发,通过构建一套指标体系,试图对东南欧六个国家使用FDI能力进行理论和实证分析,同时,借鉴国际上其他国家提高利用FDI能力的成功经验,为东南欧国家进一步提高利用FDI能力提供政策建议。因此,本文的研究具有明显的现实意义和政策指导意义。
一方面,以跨国公司为主要载体的国际直接投资通过资金、技术、人才、管理方式等的流动和融合,加速了科学技术的进步和产业结构的调整,正使世界经济结构发生深刻的变化。另一方面,近年来出现的全球金融危机以及跨国公司基于利润最大化目标而采取的技术垄断、市场垄断、跨国避税等经营策略,也对东道国的经济社会发展甚至国家经济安全形成了严峻的挑战。
东南欧国家原实行的是计划经济制度,经济发展程度相对较低,土地、劳动力成本较低;随着前南斯拉夫与前苏联的解体,这些国家开始实施对外开放的政策,政治制度也从共产主义转变为资本主义,目前已经成为不可忽视的新兴经济体中的重要力量。伴随着对外开放政策的实施,东南欧国家也对国际直接投资实行开放政策,目前已经成为欧洲外商直接投资的主要吸收地之一。根据可以得到的统计数据显示,2008年流入东南欧国家的FDI规模与2000年相比已经增长了5倍以上。
伴随着FDI的大量流入,东南欧国家的产业结构逐步优化,企业竞争力明显增强,综合国力也大大提升。但与此同时,FDI对这些国家的经济增长、对外贸易、企业技术进步等方
面产生了多大的作用,东南欧国家这些年来利用外资的能力如何,这一系列的问题在东南欧国家学术界至今还没有学者做过系统性的研究。但另一方面,对这些问题的回答又关系到东道国对外资政策的调整方向、如何更好地利用好外资促进本国经济的发展等。本文的研究即是在这样的背景下展开的。
一个国家或地区利用FDI能力不仅涉及到引进外资能力和利用外资能力两个方面,还要从更大、更广的角度去思考,即考虑FDI在推动东道国产业结构调整、促进企业技术进步、增加当地就业和税收、以及促进对外贸易等方面的系列作用。基于此,我们把利用FDI能力定义如下：所谓利用FDI能力,即在东道国吸引外资的法律法规框架下,利用FDI对当地经济增长、产业结构调整、企业技术进步、居民就业、外贸发展等方面作出的积极贡献。
在本论文中,我们首先对已有关于FDI的各种研究文献进行梳理分析,把它分为了四个部分：第一,解释FDI与利用FDI能力概念；
第二,我们对利用FDI能力的定义,以下从东道国利用FDI能力的角度,对相关研究文献进行述评分为四个部分来总结：(1)基于东道国经济增长视角的研究,经济学历史上,有很多经典理论都试图对投资与经济增长的关系进入深入阐述,也产生了诸如新古典增长理论等大量的经典文献。后来的学者以此为基础,把以FDI为代表的跨国资本作为一个新的自变量添加到生产函数中,对FDI与东道国经济增长之间的关系进行系统研究;(2)基于东道国企业技术进步视角的研究国内外很多学者研究过FDI对东道国企业的技术进步作用,这些研究成果一般认为FDI促进了东道国尤其是发展中国家的技术进步,即FDI有技术外溢效应：(3)基于东道国对外贸易扩张视角的研究国际贸易和跨国投资之间关系提出了一个贸易与投资替代模型,即在存在国际贸易壁垒的情况下,如果企业直接进行跨国投资,则企业可以在相对最佳的效率或最低的生产要素转换成本基础上,实现对商品贸易的完全替代。总体来看,东道国吸引FDI确实在一定程度上促进了本国对外贸易的增长：(4)基于东道国产业结构调整升级视角的研究跨国公司根据产品的不同阶段采取不同策略,通过对发展中国家直接投资将具有一定技术水平的产品转移到东道国当地进行生产,进而对东道国的产业结构产生一定影响；同时,发展中东道国尽管可以通过引进FDI来建立国内尚未成型的一些产业,但东道国很难跨越国家之间的产业差距达到与FDI流出国相同的产业高度。
第三,总结东道国提高利用FDI能力的政策措施综述：外资政策是一国为了实现自己利用外资的目标所采取的有关政策措施的综合,它是一国经济政策的一个重要组成部分。从提高FDI质量的角度来看,外资政策可以归纳为三类：鼓励性政策、限制性政策和中性政策。鼓励性政策是指通过财政税收优惠、金融激励和其他激励措施,吸引高质量的FDI；限制性政策是指通过市场准入限制、所有权和控制权方面的限制以及其他限制方式来维护国家利益,拒绝低质量FDI进入和提高利用FDI能力；中性政策则是指东道国对外资采取国民待遇政策,即使外资享受与内资相同的待遇以最大化国家利益。应该指出的是,东道国为实现利用FDI目标所采取的外资政策并不一定严格属于以上的某一种类别,有可能是混合性的外资政策,即可能既有一些鼓励性政策,也有一些限制性政策和中性政策。
第四,介绍东道国提高利用FDI能力的国际经验比较：从总体上看,世界各国(地区)通常都把外资作为促进本国(地区)经济发展的重要手段,在外资政策导向上都以国家利益最大化为目标,将提高利用外资质量放在重要位置,但是由于各国(地区)的具体国情千差万别,所以各国(地区)有关外商直接投资的政策法规也存在极大的差异,尤其是发达国家与发展中国家之间的差异更为明显。借鉴国际上利用FDI的各种政策经验无疑是有助于中国外资政策制定的,因此,对典型发达国家和发展中国家利用FDI的政策法规进行分析归纳,以期总结出通过外资政策提高FDI质量的国际经验。在本文中,发达国家将以美国、日本作为代表；发展中国家的典型则主要包括以印度、巴西为代表的新兴工业化国家。
着重看看FDI在东南欧国家经济发展中所体现出来社会经济效应主要表现在哪几个方面；其次,我们将这些社会经济效应作为东道国利用FDI的主要能力因子,并进而寻找其理论根基,以夯实本文分析的理论基础所以对利用FDI能力的这些效应进行理论分析,以此夯实后面怎么去选取相关指标评估一个国家或地区利用FDI能力的理论基础,对理论分析从四个方面去研究：第一,东道国利用FDI促进其经济增长的能力诸多理论分析表明,投资是促进经济增长的决定因素之一。东道国的总投资来自两个部分：国内投资和国外投资(FDI),二者共同作用,对东道国经济发展起到重要作用。更进一步地,国内外学者研究表明,FDI可以带动东道国国内投资,进而促进当地经济增长,即FDI对当地的投资存在挤入效应：即FDI的流入导致国内总投资增加额大于FDI本身的增加额,则说明FDI带动或促进了国内投资。
第二,东道国利用FDI提高对外贸易的能力,以小岛清的研究FDI和东道国对外贸易关系问题为代表,总体来看,FDI在一定程度上确实扩大了东道国的对外贸易规模。
第三,东道国利用FDI提高技术进步的能力,综合来看,可以把FDI对当地企业的技术溢出作用机理归纳到以下四个方面：示范和模仿效应、竞争效应、厂商间联系效应和人员流动效应,示范和模仿效应；(1)在FDI流入东道国的过程中,一般来说,跨国公司同时还将比较先进的生产设备、新的产品和服务模式、以及比较先进的技术引入到当地市场,同时还可能在企业车间生产过程中带来新的管理技巧,在产品营销过程中带来新的理念,这些都对东道国当地企业产生了较为明显的示范效应。(2)竞争效应,跨国公司进入东道国高壁垒及强垄断市场时强化了该市场的竞争,当地企业迫于外来竞争,必须更有效地利用现有的技术和资源或寻求新的、更有效的技术以维持其市场份额,从而推动当地企业技术水平的提高,同时,本来具有强大行业壁垒的产业由于外资企业的进入而在一定程度上消除了垄断,这也增进了社会福利水平,提高了FDI进入产业的资源配置效率。(3)厂商间联系效应,厂商间联系产生的外溢效应按产业链中的上下游关系,可分为前向关联效应和后向关联效应,前向关联是指FDI企业与东道国当地企业,即其所处产业链下游企业的联系,这些厂商为外资企业提供诸如市场营销、半成品或零部件或原材料的再加工等服务；后向联系是指FDI企业与东道国当地供应商,即其所处产业链上游企业的联系,这些企业为外资企业提供产品生产所需的原材料等。(4)人员流动效应,跨国公司不仅通过机器、设备、专利、外籍管理者和技术人员向其在东道国的分支机构转移技术,还会分支机构所雇用的当地员工进行培训。此类培训涉及各个层次的员工,既包括简单的生产操作员、较复杂的质量监督员,还包括高级技术专家和高级管理专家。而培训的形式又多种多样,包括现场指导、举办讲座、外派培训、甚至到投资国接受系统的教育等等。东道国员工在外资企业工作期间积累了各种相关的技能,当这些员工离开跨国公司并到东道国当地企业或创办自己的公司时,其在跨国公司子公司所学的各种技术也随之移动,技术外溢效应便会随之发生。最后,为了衡量东道国吸收的FDI对内资企业技术溢出效应,我们把外资作为一个独立的生产要素纳入内资企业的生产函数中,通过建立一个能够测度外资影响的内资企业生产函数来评价FDI的溢出效应。
第四,东道国利用FDI提高产业结构升级的能力,FDI流入促进了东道国技术进步和管理水平提升,这在一定程度上改变了生产要素的边际收益递减趋势,从而改变了东道国的投入产出结构,促进了相关产业的发展。技术进步和管理水平提升可以引起劳动对象、劳动工具以及生产率增长速度的差异,并可以直接导致产业技术结构的改变。FDI流入所带来的“一揽子”资源中,技术和管理技能不仅有助于东道国建立新兴产业,还能促使东道国产业间结构升级和产业内结构优化。一般来说,作为对外直接投资主体的跨国公司具有资本、技术或管理要素密集的优势,如果没有外国直接投资,东道国新兴产业的产生或传统产业的结构升级就较为困难。
理论分析后,我们先介绍阿尔巴尼亚的政治,经济与一些统计情况,然后通过实证计量方法,利用阿尔巴尼亚的相关统计数据,依靠上面的理论研究,对阿尔巴尼亚FDI能力对四个方面(经济增长,外贸,科技进步,产业结构升级)的效应,分别进行实证,得到的结果是阿尔巴尼亚FDI对经济增长,外贸,科技进步,产业结构升级都有着明显的积极作用,FDI对该国有着明显的影响,对该国发展,贸易带来了促进作用,对科技进步与转移,产业结构升级提高了发展的速度与进步。
之后,确定实证分析东道国利用FDI能力的重要影响因子；通过本文在前述理论、实证分析的基础上,构建了东道国利用FDI能力的评价指标体系,我们这里需要从FDI促进当地经济增长的能力、提高对外贸易的能力、促进当地企业技术进步的能力以及产业结构升级的能力等四个角度,选择一系列相关指标,进而对东南欧国家利用FDI的能力进行比较研究,同时,基于数据可获得性考虑,选取了能够体现东道国利用FDI能力的关键影响因子。
利用FD能力的多因子综合评价就是要把多个具有不同量纲的一组因子指标值,转化为无量纲的相对可比的数值,并赋予相应的权重,利用一定的计量模型将多个评价因子值合成为某个国家或地区的综合评价值,最后,还要对评价结果进行统计意义上的后验,看看我们的评价模型是否合理。
目前学术界关于多因子综合评价的方法有多种,根据权重确定方法的不同,这些方法大致可分为两类：一类是主观赋权法,如德尔斐法、层次分析法等,多是采用综合咨询评分的方式确定权重系数,这在很大程度上取决于专家的知识、经验和偏好,因此具有很大的主观性,往往会扩大或降低某些指标的作用,导致排序的结果不能完全真实地反映事物间的现实关系。另一类是客观赋权法,即根据各指标间的相互关系或各项指标值的变异程度来确定权重,避免了人为因素带来的偏差,如均方差法、熵值法、因子分析法等。因此,为了避免主观赋权造成的误差,我们这里选择客观赋权法进行实证分析,这就需要处理好评价模型选择、变量无量纲化、指标权重分配和评价后检验这几方面的问题。按照计量模型的方法要求对2009年东南欧六个国家利用FDI的能力进行系统的综合评价；最后,本文还针对东南欧地区当前利用FDI能力存在的一些问题,各国的利用FDI能力有明显的差别,我们对每个国家的利用FDI能力进行分析与解释,提出了进一步提高利用FDI能力的政策建议。
在研究方法上,本文采用定性分析与定量分析相结合、主成分分析评价法等各种研究方法。在一系列研究前提的假设条件下,作者经实证比较研究得出以下主要观点：(1)东道国利用FDI的能力主要体现在FDI促进东道国经济增长、企业技术进步、外贸扩张、以及产业结构升级等四个方面；(2)2009年东南欧六个国家利用FDI能力存在明显的差异,经济发展较好的地区利用FDI能力一般较高,而经济发展比较落后的地区利用FDI能力也相应较低。(3)东道国的外资政策对提高利用FDI能力具有明显的促进作用。(4)进一步完善投资环境,促进FDI企业研发本土化,制定合理的引资产业导向等外资政策措施可以有效提高东南欧国家利用FDI的能力。本文的创新之处在于：
(1)关于FDI的已有研究成果大多分别从区位比较优势、跨国公司追逐最大利润、外资流入拉动东道国经济增长、技术进步等分散视角去研究FDI对流入地的各种影响,中国有一些学者开始探讨引进FDI的业绩、质量等问题,东南欧地区的学者也是更多地从本地引进FDI数量的角度分析FDI引进业绩,但是基于东南欧地区的利用FDI能力比较研究至今尚未出现。客观评估东道国利用FDI能力理论体系的构建。一方面,目前学术界、实业界对东道国利用FDI能力的研究还十分有限；而另一方面,经济转轨国家在其经济快速成长、实现现代化的进程中,如何通过利用FDI提高其国际经济参与度和扩大对外贸易水平,如何在经济全球化形势下发挥利用FDI对东道国经济增长、技术进步、产业结构升级等方面的促进作用,需要理论届给出一个较为科学的回答。基于此,本文的研究在对东道国引进FDI对其经济增长、对外贸易、技术进步、产业结构升级等方面的作用进行实证回归分析后,试图构建一个能够较为科学评估东道国利用FDI能力的因子评价模型,尝试搭建一个评估东道国利用FDI能力的理论体系。
(2)模型构建方面的创新
正如前文所述,一个地区利用FDI能力的决定因素众多,碍于数据可得性等原因,之前学者们在这一领域研究较少,也没有出现一套比较科学、合理的指标体系来评估一个地区利用FDI的能力。基于此,本文在已经文献分析研究的基础上,开创性地建立一套综合评价指标体系,使用计量方法对东南欧地区各个国家利用FDI能力进行比较研究。本文构建的这一模型方法在利用FDI能力研究领域上述首次出现。笔者认为随着科学技术的迅猛发展,工业经济向知识经济转型,数理统计技术在经济管理科学研究中日益广泛的应用。我们在本论文的研究中将顺应变化趋势,建立量化评估模型。同时,采用SPSS13.0集成的描述性统计分析方法、因子分析、效度分析、信度分析、相关性分析等统计分析方法形成可供研究使用的数据资料。对该领域的研究思路和方法上做出一些前沿性的思考和探索。
(3)建议与探讨,
针对当前东南欧地区部分国家利用FDI能力存在的问题,有针对性地提出了新形势下进一步提高利用FDI能力的政策建议。第一次发从这个角度对这些国家研究这些问题,所以第一次也提出了这样的建议。
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important way to enhance the international competitiveness of enterprises in host countries, especially for developing countries; it is important force for economic development, especially for economies in transition. Many developing countries, particularly countries with economies in transition, during the economic development process try to attract FDI to promote rapid economic growth because unlike hedge funds, or other international financial capitals which have a large speculative nature, FDI can promote technological progress and economic growth to the host country, so many countries especially developing countries use preferential policies to attract FDI.
With increasing intensity of attracting FDI, it has become an important research topic how to scientifically and objectively assess the ability of countries to use FDI effectively and then formulate appropriate policies to further improve the ability of host countries in FDI utilization. However, research studies on FDI utilization ability are few and especially for South-East European (SEE) countries there is no such research based on comparative FDI utilization ability. Based on this and the realities on SEE countries, in this paper by building a set of indexes system and by using FDI theoretical and empirical analysis, we try to analyze these countries FDI utilization ability and at the same time using the successful experience of other countries in FDI utilization ability, we provide policy recommendations for SEE countries to further improve their FDI utilization ability. Therefore, this research has obvious practical significance and policy guidance.
With transnational corporations as the main factors of foreign direct investments through the mobility and integration of financial, technical, personnel, management methods etc, and host country's economy accelerated changes to the scientific and technological progress and industrial structure. On the other hand, in recent years of global financial crisis, transnational corporations based on profit maximization objectives, aiming to keep the technological monopoly, tax evasion business strategy, also seriously bring challenges to host country's economic and social development and national economic safety.
SEE countries at first have been state planned economies, their economic development is relatively low and after fall of communism in Europe these countries started economic reforms of opening up their economies, their political system also changed from one party system to democracy and have now become emerging economies that are attractive destinations in the world markets. With the implementation of liberalization of direct investment policy, SEE countries have now become one of the major absorption areas in the map of European Foreign Direct Investments. According to available statistics show that in 2008 FDI flows to SEE countries in size compared with 2000 has increased by more than 5 times.
With increasing FDI inflow, SEE countries are gradually optimizing the industrial structure, at the same time enterprise competitiveness and strength has also greatly improved and because before no one else has used systematic study in order to measure the effects of FDI in these countries, how it influences country's economic growth, enterprises competitiveness, technological innovations and other aspects On the other aspect, the answers to these questions are related to host country foreign direct investments policy in order to adjust investment directions in a away that it can better utilize foreign investment to promote domestic economic development. This is the main purpose of this research.
We believe that a country's or region's FDI utilization ability is not only ability to attract foreign investment but also from the larger, broader perspective to think that the host country is considering FDI in promoting industrial restructuring, promotion of enterprise technology progress, and increase local employment and tax revenue, promoting the role of foreign trade and other aspects of the series. Based on this, we define FDI utilization ability as follows:The so-called FDI utilization ability shows how the host country's legal and regulatory framework attracts foreign investment, how FDI effects the local economic growth, industrial restructuring and technological progress, residents'employment, how positive is the contribution to foreign trade development
In this paper, we first have analyze a variety of research literature on FDI, we divide our analysis in four parts; first we explain the concept of FDI utilization ability, second, by using this concept we make a classification of research literature on four aspects:(1) based on FDI effects to host countries economic growth; In economic history, many classical theories have tried to elaborate the relationship between economic growth and investment and also produced a large number of classical literatures such as neo-classical growth etc. Later scholars used these theories to represent FDI as a new independent variable of international capital flows and added it to the production function in the host country on FDI and made research on the relationship between economic growth system and FDI. (2) Based on FDI effects to host country's technological progress; Many scholars have studied about FDI effect to host countries companies technological progress, the results of these studies is generally believed that FDI plays great role for the host country's technological progress, particularly in developing countries, in which FDI has technological spillover effects. (3) Based on FDI effects to foreign trade expansion; Relationship between international trade and transnational investment can be seen as substitution model of trade and investment, in the case of existence of international trade barriers, if an enterprise involves in international direct investment, in basis of relatively high efficiency or low switching costs based on factors of production, it can achieve the complete replacement of the merchandise trade. Overall, the host country attracting FDI, to a certain extent, promoted the growth of its foreign trade. (4) Based on FDI effects to industrial structure adjustment and upgrade;
We point out that multinational companies based at product stages take different strategies at different stages, through direct investment in developing countries will transfer to the host country certain products technical level, and thus will influence a certain impact on the structure of host country's industry; at the same time, developing host countries can through attraction of FDI build a number of not yet formed industries, but still yet the host country shall find it difficult to cross and level the gap between its industry and investor country's industry. After that, some theories came up such as:labor-intensive industrial structure, marginal industrial theory, flying geese model theory, growth stage theory etc., which all predict international transfer of industry where the host country uses FDI inflows to upgrade the industrial structure adjustment. These theories suggest that FDI can effectively enhance the comparative advantages of host countries, thus promoting industrial structure adjustment and upgrade host country industries.
Third, foreign policies are a comprehensive set of related policies and measures for the countries to achieve their goal of using foreign capital, which is an important part of the economic policy in one country. From the perspective of FDI quality improvement, there are three categories of foreign policies:incentive policies, restrictive policies and neutral policies. Incentive policy means to absorb high quality FDI by financial tax concessions, financial incentives and other incentives; restrictive policy means to safeguard the national interests by the restrictions such as market access restrictions, ownership and control restrictions, in order to refuse low-quality FDI and improve the ability of FDI utilization; neutral policy means to take a national treatment to foreign investors, then let the foreign investors enjoy the same treatment as domestic in order to maximum the national interests. One thing to be noted is that host country's FDI policy are not only one of these types, it also can be a combination of these three types, such as a mixed policy with incentive and restrictive policies
Fourth, we introduce and compare some international experiences of FDI utilization ability. Countries (regions) usually regard foreign investment as an important means of promoting the economic development. They all take the maximizing national interests as the objective on the foreign policy orientation and pay a high attention to the FDI utilization quality improvement. But due to different conditions of the country, the policies on FDI regulations also differ greatly, the differences are especially distinctive between the developed and developing countries. Taking the experiences of FDI utilization in different countries as the reference undoubtedly will help the foreign investment policy setting of developing countries. So this part will analyze and generalize the FDI utilization policies and regulations of developed and developing countries, give a summary of international experiences on the FDI utilization quality improvement through foreign investment policies. In this analysis, we chosen America and Japan as the representative of developed country, and the developing countries include India and Brazil, which are the typical representative of the newly industrialized country.
After, we focus on how FDI is reflected in major factors of socio-economic life of the SEE countries economies and the effects on economic development performance. Specifically, in this paper we first analyze in which aspects of host country's macro- economy are FDI effects reflected and we try to find theoretical basis to base our research.. We divide this theoretical research in four aspects:First, as many scholars have concluded, investments are one of sources of promoting GDP growth. Investments are divided in domestic investments and FDI. Both of them play an important role in GDP growth. Furthermore, studies from different scholars show that FDI can stimulate domestic investment in the host country, thereby promoting local economic growth, FDI investment in the local investments has crowd into effect. FDI inflows inside the country lead to domestic investment increases; the total increased is greater than the increase in FDI amount, so FDI promotes domestic investment. Second, FDI utilization by host country increases foreign trade, and by analyzing Kojima's complementary relationship model theory relationship between FDI and host country, we conclude that at certain level, FDI increased and promoted foreign trade. Third, analyzing host country's FDI utilization ability relations to technological progress, in general FDI technology spillover effects to local enterprises mechanisms are summarized in the following four areas:demonstration and imitation effects, competition effects, linkages effects between companies and employees'mobility effect. (1)During the process of FDI inflows to the host country, in general, multinational corporations will enter the local market with more advanced production equipment, new products and service models, as well as more advanced technology into, but also may bring new management skills during production process, also bringing new ideas to product marketing process, and all these things make host country's local companies to imitate and adapt these new things, so it brings more significant imitation and copying effects. (2) When foreign investment companies enter host country, it will strengthen the market competition in the market, foreign competition will force local firms to be more effective in using existing technology and resources, or seek new and more effective technologies to maintain its market share, so competition promotes technological upgrading in local firms, it also increases the social welfare level. FDI inflows to certain industries improve the efficiency of resource allocation.(3) Contact between firms generate spillover effects of industrial chain by the upstream and downstream relationship, which can be divided into the forward linkage and backward linkage where forward linkage is a relation between FDI enterprises and local enterprises, where local companies provide services such as marketing, semi-finished products or components or raw materials re-processing and other services for the foreign-funded enterprises; backward linkage is relation between FDI enterprises and local suppliers, which means that local enterprises provide raw materials for products needed for the production of foreign-funded enterprises.(4) Transnational companies effect host country's productivity not only through the machinery, equipment, patents, foreign managers and technical staff to their offices of technology transfer, but also by training local employees employed by the local branch. Such training involves employees at all levels, both the quality supervisor of simple production and the more complex production quality, including senior technical experts and senior management experts. They use different form and variety of training, including on-site guidance, seminars, training assignment, even going to the investor country to receive systematic education. These employees while working in the foreign investor country accumulate a variety of relevant skills and when these employees leave the multinational companies go and work for local firms or start their own companies, so local companies also will learn the various techniques and production technologies, so it will bring technology spillover effect. After, In order to measure the host country's FDI spillover effects to domestic enterprises technology, we take foreign investment as an independent factor of production into the domestic enterprise's production function, and by testing FDI as independent variable in the host country's production function; we try to measure its influence to domestic enterprises production function to assess the FDI spillover effects in host country's technological upgrade.
Fourth, we analyze host countries ability to use FDI in industrial structure upgrading. FDI inflows enhanced host country's level of technological progress and management, which to some extent, changed the trend of production factors diminishing marginal returns, thus changing the input-output structure of the host country and promoting the development of related industries. The promoted technological progress and management level can lead labor force, labor tools to have productivity growth and can lead directly to changes in the structure of industrial technology. FDI inflows give the "package" of resources, technology and management skills needed not only to help the host country to establish new industries, but also to help host country to promote inter-industry structure within a structural optimization and industrial upgrading,
In general, multinational companies have advantages of capital, technology or management-intensive elements, if there is no foreign direct investment, for the host country producing new industries or upgrading of the structure of traditional industries shall be more difficult.
After theoretical analysis, we first introduce Albania's political and economic situation and data statistics, and then, by using historical statistical data related to Albania and based on the theoretical research before, we respectively go on through empirical measurement methods to find out the impact Albania's FDI ability on four aspects (economic growth, foreign trade, scientific and technological progress, industrial structure upgrade), and the result show that Albanian FDI's impact on economic growth, foreign trade, scientific and technological progress, upgrading the industrial structure have a significant positive effect, FDI has clear impact on the country's economic development, trade and it brings a catalytic role, helping transfer of scientific and technological progress and upgrading the industrial structure to improve the pace of development and progress.
After the empirical analysis on Albania, in order to determine the factors which affect FDI utilization ability, based on the previous theoretical and empirical discussion, here we have to choose relative indicators from ability of promoting local economy growth, ability of improving the foreign trade, ability of promoting technological progress of local enterprise and the ability of upgrading the industrial structure. On the basis of these indicators, we conducted a comparative study on the FDI utilization ability of SEE countries. In order to give a complete and comprehensive evaluation on the FDI utilization ability, we should consider about many specific factors, and it is necessary to take the method of multi-factor evaluation. In order to give a complete and comprehensive evaluation on the FDI utilization ability, we should consider about many specific factors, and it is necessary to take the method of multi-factor evaluation. The multi-factor evaluation on FDI utilization ability in particularly, is to transfer a group of factors with different dimensions to relative comparable data without dimensions, with correspondent weights, and then synthesis these evaluation factors to a comprehensive evaluation value of the country or region, with the help of certain econometric model. Finally, for the evaluation results, we should conduct a statistically posterior test, to confirm the rationality of the evaluation model.
There are many methods of multi-factor evaluation in current academia, these methods can be classified to two sorts by the way of weight determination:the first one is subjective weighting, like Delphi and AHP, the weight coefficient is determined mostly by comprehensive consultation ratings, and it depends on the knowledge, experience and preferences of the expert. With a distinctive subjectivity, there will be a probability of expanding or reducing the role of some indicators, that leads the sort results cannot reflect the reality of relationships between items. The other one is objective weighting, determining the weight by the relationship between the index and the variation of the indicators'value, also avoid the bias caused by subjective factors, such as mean square method, entropy and factor analysis. Here we choose the second method in order to avoid the subjective bias, and it needs handle the problems such as selection of evaluation model, the dimensionless variables, index weight distribution and tests after evaluation. The multi-factor evaluation on FDI utilization ability in particularly, is to transfer a group of factors with different dimensions to relative comparable data without dimensions, with correspondent weights, and then synthesis these evaluation factors to a comprehensive evaluation value of the country or region, with the help of certain econometric model. Finally, for the evaluation results, we should conduct a statistically posterior test, to confirm the rationality of the evaluation model, than we obtain comprehensive evaluation of the results, thus we complete assessment of the six SEE countries FDI utilization ability by using 2009 statistical data and we make an overall estimation of the results and after we indentify some problems which exists for these countries ability in using FDI, we propose policy recommendations for these six SEE countries to further improve their FDI utilization ability.
In this research method, we combine qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, principal component analysis and other evaluation methods. In a series of studies under the assumption of certain premises, authors draw these main conclusions upon empirical comparison:(1) host country's FDI utilization ability promotes economic growth, technological progress, trade expansion, and upgrades the industrial structure; (2) there are obvious differences in 6 SEE countries in FDI utilization abilities, regions with better economic development have higher FDI utilization ability and regions with backward economic development have a lower FDI utilization ability. (3) The host country's foreign investment policy on FDI have a significant role on improving FDI utilization ability. (4) By improving investment environment and promoting more FDI on R & D subjects of investments and developing reasonable guidance and other foreign policy measures for FDI, can improve the ability of South-East European countries in FDI utilization.
We can see the innovations of this research in three aspects:
(1) Most of existing research on FDI is done separately based on different aspects and angles of view, such as comparative advantages of location, largest multinational companies chasing profits, host country's economic growth driven of foreign capital inflow, from the angle of technological progress studying various effects of FDI inflows etc. It is only lately that some researchers began to explore China's FDI performance, FDI quality and other issues. For SEE countries, scholars till now have not made such a research on SEE countries FDI utilization ability or comparative Studies on the use of FDI ability have not appeared yet. Building a theoretical system in order to objectively assessing the ability of the host country FDI theory using, is of great challenge. On one hand, the current academic, from the outlook of the host country's FDI utilization ability is also very limited; on the other hand, the economies in transition are having rapid economic growth and modernization process, so in order to use FDI to improve their participation in the international economy and expand the level of foreign trade, to use FDI to play a greater role in the context of economic globalization on the host country's economic growth, technological progress, industrial upgrading, etc., we have to innovatively build a kind of theory to give a more scientific answer, this research is based on host country's FDI ability to effect the economic growth, foreign trade, technological progress, industrial upgrading and by that trying to build theoretical system based on factor evaluation model which can scientifically assess of the host country FDI utilization ability.
(2) Empirical model innovations
As mentioned before, there are so many decisive factors which determine a region's FDI utilization ability and there are very few scholars who have made research on this subject and till now it did not appear a more scientific research and reasonable indicators to assess the ability of region's FDI utilization ability. This paper has been based on other research literature analysis; it has pioneered the establishment of a comprehensive multi-index evaluation method, using econometric method on the SEE countries FDI utilization ability. We build this model in FDI utilization ability for first time. I believe that with the rapid development of science and technology, changing from industrial economy to a knowledge-based economy, statistics and technology in economic management scientific research will have increasingly widespread applications. In this study we will adapt to changing trends, establish quantitative evaluation model. At the same time, by using SPSS 13.0 integrated descriptive statistical analysis, factor analysis, validity analysis, reliability analysis, correlation analysis, statistical analysis methods etc., we form the data needed for this study.
(3) Remarks and discussions
In order to decrease problems assessed from current FDI utilization ability of SEE countries and to further improve capacity utilization FDI policy, for first time in innovative way, we put forward our remarks and recommendations. From this point of view, we first examine these issues in these countries, so for the first time also made such a proposal.
但是,随着各国吸引FDI力度的加大,如何科学、客观地评估各国利用FDI的能力,进而制定相应的外资政策以进一步提高东道国利用FDI能力已成为一个重要研究课题。然而,既有研究FDI的文献中对此专题研究很少,尤其是基于东南欧国家间的比较研究目前尚未出现。基于此,本文将从近年来东南欧国家经济发展的实际情况出发,通过构建一套指标体系,试图对东南欧六个国家使用FDI能力进行理论和实证分析,同时,借鉴国际上其他国家提高利用FDI能力的成功经验,为东南欧国家进一步提高利用FDI能力提供政策建议。因此,本文的研究具有明显的现实意义和政策指导意义。
一方面,以跨国公司为主要载体的国际直接投资通过资金、技术、人才、管理方式等的流动和融合,加速了科学技术的进步和产业结构的调整,正使世界经济结构发生深刻的变化。另一方面,近年来出现的全球金融危机以及跨国公司基于利润最大化目标而采取的技术垄断、市场垄断、跨国避税等经营策略,也对东道国的经济社会发展甚至国家经济安全形成了严峻的挑战。
东南欧国家原实行的是计划经济制度,经济发展程度相对较低,土地、劳动力成本较低;随着前南斯拉夫与前苏联的解体,这些国家开始实施对外开放的政策,政治制度也从共产主义转变为资本主义,目前已经成为不可忽视的新兴经济体中的重要力量。伴随着对外开放政策的实施,东南欧国家也对国际直接投资实行开放政策,目前已经成为欧洲外商直接投资的主要吸收地之一。根据可以得到的统计数据显示,2008年流入东南欧国家的FDI规模与2000年相比已经增长了5倍以上。
伴随着FDI的大量流入,东南欧国家的产业结构逐步优化,企业竞争力明显增强,综合国力也大大提升。但与此同时,FDI对这些国家的经济增长、对外贸易、企业技术进步等方
面产生了多大的作用,东南欧国家这些年来利用外资的能力如何,这一系列的问题在东南欧国家学术界至今还没有学者做过系统性的研究。但另一方面,对这些问题的回答又关系到东道国对外资政策的调整方向、如何更好地利用好外资促进本国经济的发展等。本文的研究即是在这样的背景下展开的。
一个国家或地区利用FDI能力不仅涉及到引进外资能力和利用外资能力两个方面,还要从更大、更广的角度去思考,即考虑FDI在推动东道国产业结构调整、促进企业技术进步、增加当地就业和税收、以及促进对外贸易等方面的系列作用。基于此,我们把利用FDI能力定义如下：所谓利用FDI能力,即在东道国吸引外资的法律法规框架下,利用FDI对当地经济增长、产业结构调整、企业技术进步、居民就业、外贸发展等方面作出的积极贡献。
在本论文中,我们首先对已有关于FDI的各种研究文献进行梳理分析,把它分为了四个部分：第一,解释FDI与利用FDI能力概念；
第二,我们对利用FDI能力的定义,以下从东道国利用FDI能力的角度,对相关研究文献进行述评分为四个部分来总结：(1)基于东道国经济增长视角的研究,经济学历史上,有很多经典理论都试图对投资与经济增长的关系进入深入阐述,也产生了诸如新古典增长理论等大量的经典文献。后来的学者以此为基础,把以FDI为代表的跨国资本作为一个新的自变量添加到生产函数中,对FDI与东道国经济增长之间的关系进行系统研究;(2)基于东道国企业技术进步视角的研究国内外很多学者研究过FDI对东道国企业的技术进步作用,这些研究成果一般认为FDI促进了东道国尤其是发展中国家的技术进步,即FDI有技术外溢效应：(3)基于东道国对外贸易扩张视角的研究国际贸易和跨国投资之间关系提出了一个贸易与投资替代模型,即在存在国际贸易壁垒的情况下,如果企业直接进行跨国投资,则企业可以在相对最佳的效率或最低的生产要素转换成本基础上,实现对商品贸易的完全替代。总体来看,东道国吸引FDI确实在一定程度上促进了本国对外贸易的增长：(4)基于东道国产业结构调整升级视角的研究跨国公司根据产品的不同阶段采取不同策略,通过对发展中国家直接投资将具有一定技术水平的产品转移到东道国当地进行生产,进而对东道国的产业结构产生一定影响；同时,发展中东道国尽管可以通过引进FDI来建立国内尚未成型的一些产业,但东道国很难跨越国家之间的产业差距达到与FDI流出国相同的产业高度。
第三,总结东道国提高利用FDI能力的政策措施综述：外资政策是一国为了实现自己利用外资的目标所采取的有关政策措施的综合,它是一国经济政策的一个重要组成部分。从提高FDI质量的角度来看,外资政策可以归纳为三类：鼓励性政策、限制性政策和中性政策。鼓励性政策是指通过财政税收优惠、金融激励和其他激励措施,吸引高质量的FDI；限制性政策是指通过市场准入限制、所有权和控制权方面的限制以及其他限制方式来维护国家利益,拒绝低质量FDI进入和提高利用FDI能力；中性政策则是指东道国对外资采取国民待遇政策,即使外资享受与内资相同的待遇以最大化国家利益。应该指出的是,东道国为实现利用FDI目标所采取的外资政策并不一定严格属于以上的某一种类别,有可能是混合性的外资政策,即可能既有一些鼓励性政策,也有一些限制性政策和中性政策。
第四,介绍东道国提高利用FDI能力的国际经验比较：从总体上看,世界各国(地区)通常都把外资作为促进本国(地区)经济发展的重要手段,在外资政策导向上都以国家利益最大化为目标,将提高利用外资质量放在重要位置,但是由于各国(地区)的具体国情千差万别,所以各国(地区)有关外商直接投资的政策法规也存在极大的差异,尤其是发达国家与发展中国家之间的差异更为明显。借鉴国际上利用FDI的各种政策经验无疑是有助于中国外资政策制定的,因此,对典型发达国家和发展中国家利用FDI的政策法规进行分析归纳,以期总结出通过外资政策提高FDI质量的国际经验。在本文中,发达国家将以美国、日本作为代表；发展中国家的典型则主要包括以印度、巴西为代表的新兴工业化国家。
着重看看FDI在东南欧国家经济发展中所体现出来社会经济效应主要表现在哪几个方面；其次,我们将这些社会经济效应作为东道国利用FDI的主要能力因子,并进而寻找其理论根基,以夯实本文分析的理论基础所以对利用FDI能力的这些效应进行理论分析,以此夯实后面怎么去选取相关指标评估一个国家或地区利用FDI能力的理论基础,对理论分析从四个方面去研究：第一,东道国利用FDI促进其经济增长的能力诸多理论分析表明,投资是促进经济增长的决定因素之一。东道国的总投资来自两个部分：国内投资和国外投资(FDI),二者共同作用,对东道国经济发展起到重要作用。更进一步地,国内外学者研究表明,FDI可以带动东道国国内投资,进而促进当地经济增长,即FDI对当地的投资存在挤入效应：即FDI的流入导致国内总投资增加额大于FDI本身的增加额,则说明FDI带动或促进了国内投资。
第二,东道国利用FDI提高对外贸易的能力,以小岛清的研究FDI和东道国对外贸易关系问题为代表,总体来看,FDI在一定程度上确实扩大了东道国的对外贸易规模。
第三,东道国利用FDI提高技术进步的能力,综合来看,可以把FDI对当地企业的技术溢出作用机理归纳到以下四个方面：示范和模仿效应、竞争效应、厂商间联系效应和人员流动效应,示范和模仿效应；(1)在FDI流入东道国的过程中,一般来说,跨国公司同时还将比较先进的生产设备、新的产品和服务模式、以及比较先进的技术引入到当地市场,同时还可能在企业车间生产过程中带来新的管理技巧,在产品营销过程中带来新的理念,这些都对东道国当地企业产生了较为明显的示范效应。(2)竞争效应,跨国公司进入东道国高壁垒及强垄断市场时强化了该市场的竞争,当地企业迫于外来竞争,必须更有效地利用现有的技术和资源或寻求新的、更有效的技术以维持其市场份额,从而推动当地企业技术水平的提高,同时,本来具有强大行业壁垒的产业由于外资企业的进入而在一定程度上消除了垄断,这也增进了社会福利水平,提高了FDI进入产业的资源配置效率。(3)厂商间联系效应,厂商间联系产生的外溢效应按产业链中的上下游关系,可分为前向关联效应和后向关联效应,前向关联是指FDI企业与东道国当地企业,即其所处产业链下游企业的联系,这些厂商为外资企业提供诸如市场营销、半成品或零部件或原材料的再加工等服务；后向联系是指FDI企业与东道国当地供应商,即其所处产业链上游企业的联系,这些企业为外资企业提供产品生产所需的原材料等。(4)人员流动效应,跨国公司不仅通过机器、设备、专利、外籍管理者和技术人员向其在东道国的分支机构转移技术,还会分支机构所雇用的当地员工进行培训。此类培训涉及各个层次的员工,既包括简单的生产操作员、较复杂的质量监督员,还包括高级技术专家和高级管理专家。而培训的形式又多种多样,包括现场指导、举办讲座、外派培训、甚至到投资国接受系统的教育等等。东道国员工在外资企业工作期间积累了各种相关的技能,当这些员工离开跨国公司并到东道国当地企业或创办自己的公司时,其在跨国公司子公司所学的各种技术也随之移动,技术外溢效应便会随之发生。最后,为了衡量东道国吸收的FDI对内资企业技术溢出效应,我们把外资作为一个独立的生产要素纳入内资企业的生产函数中,通过建立一个能够测度外资影响的内资企业生产函数来评价FDI的溢出效应。
第四,东道国利用FDI提高产业结构升级的能力,FDI流入促进了东道国技术进步和管理水平提升,这在一定程度上改变了生产要素的边际收益递减趋势,从而改变了东道国的投入产出结构,促进了相关产业的发展。技术进步和管理水平提升可以引起劳动对象、劳动工具以及生产率增长速度的差异,并可以直接导致产业技术结构的改变。FDI流入所带来的“一揽子”资源中,技术和管理技能不仅有助于东道国建立新兴产业,还能促使东道国产业间结构升级和产业内结构优化。一般来说,作为对外直接投资主体的跨国公司具有资本、技术或管理要素密集的优势,如果没有外国直接投资,东道国新兴产业的产生或传统产业的结构升级就较为困难。
理论分析后,我们先介绍阿尔巴尼亚的政治,经济与一些统计情况,然后通过实证计量方法,利用阿尔巴尼亚的相关统计数据,依靠上面的理论研究,对阿尔巴尼亚FDI能力对四个方面(经济增长,外贸,科技进步,产业结构升级)的效应,分别进行实证,得到的结果是阿尔巴尼亚FDI对经济增长,外贸,科技进步,产业结构升级都有着明显的积极作用,FDI对该国有着明显的影响,对该国发展,贸易带来了促进作用,对科技进步与转移,产业结构升级提高了发展的速度与进步。
之后,确定实证分析东道国利用FDI能力的重要影响因子；通过本文在前述理论、实证分析的基础上,构建了东道国利用FDI能力的评价指标体系,我们这里需要从FDI促进当地经济增长的能力、提高对外贸易的能力、促进当地企业技术进步的能力以及产业结构升级的能力等四个角度,选择一系列相关指标,进而对东南欧国家利用FDI的能力进行比较研究,同时,基于数据可获得性考虑,选取了能够体现东道国利用FDI能力的关键影响因子。
利用FD能力的多因子综合评价就是要把多个具有不同量纲的一组因子指标值,转化为无量纲的相对可比的数值,并赋予相应的权重,利用一定的计量模型将多个评价因子值合成为某个国家或地区的综合评价值,最后,还要对评价结果进行统计意义上的后验,看看我们的评价模型是否合理。
目前学术界关于多因子综合评价的方法有多种,根据权重确定方法的不同,这些方法大致可分为两类：一类是主观赋权法,如德尔斐法、层次分析法等,多是采用综合咨询评分的方式确定权重系数,这在很大程度上取决于专家的知识、经验和偏好,因此具有很大的主观性,往往会扩大或降低某些指标的作用,导致排序的结果不能完全真实地反映事物间的现实关系。另一类是客观赋权法,即根据各指标间的相互关系或各项指标值的变异程度来确定权重,避免了人为因素带来的偏差,如均方差法、熵值法、因子分析法等。因此,为了避免主观赋权造成的误差,我们这里选择客观赋权法进行实证分析,这就需要处理好评价模型选择、变量无量纲化、指标权重分配和评价后检验这几方面的问题。按照计量模型的方法要求对2009年东南欧六个国家利用FDI的能力进行系统的综合评价；最后,本文还针对东南欧地区当前利用FDI能力存在的一些问题,各国的利用FDI能力有明显的差别,我们对每个国家的利用FDI能力进行分析与解释,提出了进一步提高利用FDI能力的政策建议。
在研究方法上,本文采用定性分析与定量分析相结合、主成分分析评价法等各种研究方法。在一系列研究前提的假设条件下,作者经实证比较研究得出以下主要观点：(1)东道国利用FDI的能力主要体现在FDI促进东道国经济增长、企业技术进步、外贸扩张、以及产业结构升级等四个方面；(2)2009年东南欧六个国家利用FDI能力存在明显的差异,经济发展较好的地区利用FDI能力一般较高,而经济发展比较落后的地区利用FDI能力也相应较低。(3)东道国的外资政策对提高利用FDI能力具有明显的促进作用。(4)进一步完善投资环境,促进FDI企业研发本土化,制定合理的引资产业导向等外资政策措施可以有效提高东南欧国家利用FDI的能力。本文的创新之处在于：
(1)关于FDI的已有研究成果大多分别从区位比较优势、跨国公司追逐最大利润、外资流入拉动东道国经济增长、技术进步等分散视角去研究FDI对流入地的各种影响,中国有一些学者开始探讨引进FDI的业绩、质量等问题,东南欧地区的学者也是更多地从本地引进FDI数量的角度分析FDI引进业绩,但是基于东南欧地区的利用FDI能力比较研究至今尚未出现。客观评估东道国利用FDI能力理论体系的构建。一方面,目前学术界、实业界对东道国利用FDI能力的研究还十分有限；而另一方面,经济转轨国家在其经济快速成长、实现现代化的进程中,如何通过利用FDI提高其国际经济参与度和扩大对外贸易水平,如何在经济全球化形势下发挥利用FDI对东道国经济增长、技术进步、产业结构升级等方面的促进作用,需要理论届给出一个较为科学的回答。基于此,本文的研究在对东道国引进FDI对其经济增长、对外贸易、技术进步、产业结构升级等方面的作用进行实证回归分析后,试图构建一个能够较为科学评估东道国利用FDI能力的因子评价模型,尝试搭建一个评估东道国利用FDI能力的理论体系。
(2)模型构建方面的创新
正如前文所述,一个地区利用FDI能力的决定因素众多,碍于数据可得性等原因,之前学者们在这一领域研究较少,也没有出现一套比较科学、合理的指标体系来评估一个地区利用FDI的能力。基于此,本文在已经文献分析研究的基础上,开创性地建立一套综合评价指标体系,使用计量方法对东南欧地区各个国家利用FDI能力进行比较研究。本文构建的这一模型方法在利用FDI能力研究领域上述首次出现。笔者认为随着科学技术的迅猛发展,工业经济向知识经济转型,数理统计技术在经济管理科学研究中日益广泛的应用。我们在本论文的研究中将顺应变化趋势,建立量化评估模型。同时,采用SPSS13.0集成的描述性统计分析方法、因子分析、效度分析、信度分析、相关性分析等统计分析方法形成可供研究使用的数据资料。对该领域的研究思路和方法上做出一些前沿性的思考和探索。
(3)建议与探讨,
针对当前东南欧地区部分国家利用FDI能力存在的问题,有针对性地提出了新形势下进一步提高利用FDI能力的政策建议。第一次发从这个角度对这些国家研究这些问题,所以第一次也提出了这样的建议。
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important way to enhance the international competitiveness of enterprises in host countries, especially for developing countries; it is important force for economic development, especially for economies in transition. Many developing countries, particularly countries with economies in transition, during the economic development process try to attract FDI to promote rapid economic growth because unlike hedge funds, or other international financial capitals which have a large speculative nature, FDI can promote technological progress and economic growth to the host country, so many countries especially developing countries use preferential policies to attract FDI.
With increasing intensity of attracting FDI, it has become an important research topic how to scientifically and objectively assess the ability of countries to use FDI effectively and then formulate appropriate policies to further improve the ability of host countries in FDI utilization. However, research studies on FDI utilization ability are few and especially for South-East European (SEE) countries there is no such research based on comparative FDI utilization ability. Based on this and the realities on SEE countries, in this paper by building a set of indexes system and by using FDI theoretical and empirical analysis, we try to analyze these countries FDI utilization ability and at the same time using the successful experience of other countries in FDI utilization ability, we provide policy recommendations for SEE countries to further improve their FDI utilization ability. Therefore, this research has obvious practical significance and policy guidance.
With transnational corporations as the main factors of foreign direct investments through the mobility and integration of financial, technical, personnel, management methods etc, and host country's economy accelerated changes to the scientific and technological progress and industrial structure. On the other hand, in recent years of global financial crisis, transnational corporations based on profit maximization objectives, aiming to keep the technological monopoly, tax evasion business strategy, also seriously bring challenges to host country's economic and social development and national economic safety.
SEE countries at first have been state planned economies, their economic development is relatively low and after fall of communism in Europe these countries started economic reforms of opening up their economies, their political system also changed from one party system to democracy and have now become emerging economies that are attractive destinations in the world markets. With the implementation of liberalization of direct investment policy, SEE countries have now become one of the major absorption areas in the map of European Foreign Direct Investments. According to available statistics show that in 2008 FDI flows to SEE countries in size compared with 2000 has increased by more than 5 times.
With increasing FDI inflow, SEE countries are gradually optimizing the industrial structure, at the same time enterprise competitiveness and strength has also greatly improved and because before no one else has used systematic study in order to measure the effects of FDI in these countries, how it influences country's economic growth, enterprises competitiveness, technological innovations and other aspects On the other aspect, the answers to these questions are related to host country foreign direct investments policy in order to adjust investment directions in a away that it can better utilize foreign investment to promote domestic economic development. This is the main purpose of this research.
We believe that a country's or region's FDI utilization ability is not only ability to attract foreign investment but also from the larger, broader perspective to think that the host country is considering FDI in promoting industrial restructuring, promotion of enterprise technology progress, and increase local employment and tax revenue, promoting the role of foreign trade and other aspects of the series. Based on this, we define FDI utilization ability as follows:The so-called FDI utilization ability shows how the host country's legal and regulatory framework attracts foreign investment, how FDI effects the local economic growth, industrial restructuring and technological progress, residents'employment, how positive is the contribution to foreign trade development
In this paper, we first have analyze a variety of research literature on FDI, we divide our analysis in four parts; first we explain the concept of FDI utilization ability, second, by using this concept we make a classification of research literature on four aspects:(1) based on FDI effects to host countries economic growth; In economic history, many classical theories have tried to elaborate the relationship between economic growth and investment and also produced a large number of classical literatures such as neo-classical growth etc. Later scholars used these theories to represent FDI as a new independent variable of international capital flows and added it to the production function in the host country on FDI and made research on the relationship between economic growth system and FDI. (2) Based on FDI effects to host country's technological progress; Many scholars have studied about FDI effect to host countries companies technological progress, the results of these studies is generally believed that FDI plays great role for the host country's technological progress, particularly in developing countries, in which FDI has technological spillover effects. (3) Based on FDI effects to foreign trade expansion; Relationship between international trade and transnational investment can be seen as substitution model of trade and investment, in the case of existence of international trade barriers, if an enterprise involves in international direct investment, in basis of relatively high efficiency or low switching costs based on factors of production, it can achieve the complete replacement of the merchandise trade. Overall, the host country attracting FDI, to a certain extent, promoted the growth of its foreign trade. (4) Based on FDI effects to industrial structure adjustment and upgrade;
We point out that multinational companies based at product stages take different strategies at different stages, through direct investment in developing countries will transfer to the host country certain products technical level, and thus will influence a certain impact on the structure of host country's industry; at the same time, developing host countries can through attraction of FDI build a number of not yet formed industries, but still yet the host country shall find it difficult to cross and level the gap between its industry and investor country's industry. After that, some theories came up such as:labor-intensive industrial structure, marginal industrial theory, flying geese model theory, growth stage theory etc., which all predict international transfer of industry where the host country uses FDI inflows to upgrade the industrial structure adjustment. These theories suggest that FDI can effectively enhance the comparative advantages of host countries, thus promoting industrial structure adjustment and upgrade host country industries.
Third, foreign policies are a comprehensive set of related policies and measures for the countries to achieve their goal of using foreign capital, which is an important part of the economic policy in one country. From the perspective of FDI quality improvement, there are three categories of foreign policies:incentive policies, restrictive policies and neutral policies. Incentive policy means to absorb high quality FDI by financial tax concessions, financial incentives and other incentives; restrictive policy means to safeguard the national interests by the restrictions such as market access restrictions, ownership and control restrictions, in order to refuse low-quality FDI and improve the ability of FDI utilization; neutral policy means to take a national treatment to foreign investors, then let the foreign investors enjoy the same treatment as domestic in order to maximum the national interests. One thing to be noted is that host country's FDI policy are not only one of these types, it also can be a combination of these three types, such as a mixed policy with incentive and restrictive policies
Fourth, we introduce and compare some international experiences of FDI utilization ability. Countries (regions) usually regard foreign investment as an important means of promoting the economic development. They all take the maximizing national interests as the objective on the foreign policy orientation and pay a high attention to the FDI utilization quality improvement. But due to different conditions of the country, the policies on FDI regulations also differ greatly, the differences are especially distinctive between the developed and developing countries. Taking the experiences of FDI utilization in different countries as the reference undoubtedly will help the foreign investment policy setting of developing countries. So this part will analyze and generalize the FDI utilization policies and regulations of developed and developing countries, give a summary of international experiences on the FDI utilization quality improvement through foreign investment policies. In this analysis, we chosen America and Japan as the representative of developed country, and the developing countries include India and Brazil, which are the typical representative of the newly industrialized country.
After, we focus on how FDI is reflected in major factors of socio-economic life of the SEE countries economies and the effects on economic development performance. Specifically, in this paper we first analyze in which aspects of host country's macro- economy are FDI effects reflected and we try to find theoretical basis to base our research.. We divide this theoretical research in four aspects:First, as many scholars have concluded, investments are one of sources of promoting GDP growth. Investments are divided in domestic investments and FDI. Both of them play an important role in GDP growth. Furthermore, studies from different scholars show that FDI can stimulate domestic investment in the host country, thereby promoting local economic growth, FDI investment in the local investments has crowd into effect. FDI inflows inside the country lead to domestic investment increases; the total increased is greater than the increase in FDI amount, so FDI promotes domestic investment. Second, FDI utilization by host country increases foreign trade, and by analyzing Kojima's complementary relationship model theory relationship between FDI and host country, we conclude that at certain level, FDI increased and promoted foreign trade. Third, analyzing host country's FDI utilization ability relations to technological progress, in general FDI technology spillover effects to local enterprises mechanisms are summarized in the following four areas:demonstration and imitation effects, competition effects, linkages effects between companies and employees'mobility effect. (1)During the process of FDI inflows to the host country, in general, multinational corporations will enter the local market with more advanced production equipment, new products and service models, as well as more advanced technology into, but also may bring new management skills during production process, also bringing new ideas to product marketing process, and all these things make host country's local companies to imitate and adapt these new things, so it brings more significant imitation and copying effects. (2) When foreign investment companies enter host country, it will strengthen the market competition in the market, foreign competition will force local firms to be more effective in using existing technology and resources, or seek new and more effective technologies to maintain its market share, so competition promotes technological upgrading in local firms, it also increases the social welfare level. FDI inflows to certain industries improve the efficiency of resource allocation.(3) Contact between firms generate spillover effects of industrial chain by the upstream and downstream relationship, which can be divided into the forward linkage and backward linkage where forward linkage is a relation between FDI enterprises and local enterprises, where local companies provide services such as marketing, semi-finished products or components or raw materials re-processing and other services for the foreign-funded enterprises; backward linkage is relation between FDI enterprises and local suppliers, which means that local enterprises provide raw materials for products needed for the production of foreign-funded enterprises.(4) Transnational companies effect host country's productivity not only through the machinery, equipment, patents, foreign managers and technical staff to their offices of technology transfer, but also by training local employees employed by the local branch. Such training involves employees at all levels, both the quality supervisor of simple production and the more complex production quality, including senior technical experts and senior management experts. They use different form and variety of training, including on-site guidance, seminars, training assignment, even going to the investor country to receive systematic education. These employees while working in the foreign investor country accumulate a variety of relevant skills and when these employees leave the multinational companies go and work for local firms or start their own companies, so local companies also will learn the various techniques and production technologies, so it will bring technology spillover effect. After, In order to measure the host country's FDI spillover effects to domestic enterprises technology, we take foreign investment as an independent factor of production into the domestic enterprise's production function, and by testing FDI as independent variable in the host country's production function; we try to measure its influence to domestic enterprises production function to assess the FDI spillover effects in host country's technological upgrade.
Fourth, we analyze host countries ability to use FDI in industrial structure upgrading. FDI inflows enhanced host country's level of technological progress and management, which to some extent, changed the trend of production factors diminishing marginal returns, thus changing the input-output structure of the host country and promoting the development of related industries. The promoted technological progress and management level can lead labor force, labor tools to have productivity growth and can lead directly to changes in the structure of industrial technology. FDI inflows give the "package" of resources, technology and management skills needed not only to help the host country to establish new industries, but also to help host country to promote inter-industry structure within a structural optimization and industrial upgrading,
In general, multinational companies have advantages of capital, technology or management-intensive elements, if there is no foreign direct investment, for the host country producing new industries or upgrading of the structure of traditional industries shall be more difficult.
After theoretical analysis, we first introduce Albania's political and economic situation and data statistics, and then, by using historical statistical data related to Albania and based on the theoretical research before, we respectively go on through empirical measurement methods to find out the impact Albania's FDI ability on four aspects (economic growth, foreign trade, scientific and technological progress, industrial structure upgrade), and the result show that Albanian FDI's impact on economic growth, foreign trade, scientific and technological progress, upgrading the industrial structure have a significant positive effect, FDI has clear impact on the country's economic development, trade and it brings a catalytic role, helping transfer of scientific and technological progress and upgrading the industrial structure to improve the pace of development and progress.
After the empirical analysis on Albania, in order to determine the factors which affect FDI utilization ability, based on the previous theoretical and empirical discussion, here we have to choose relative indicators from ability of promoting local economy growth, ability of improving the foreign trade, ability of promoting technological progress of local enterprise and the ability of upgrading the industrial structure. On the basis of these indicators, we conducted a comparative study on the FDI utilization ability of SEE countries. In order to give a complete and comprehensive evaluation on the FDI utilization ability, we should consider about many specific factors, and it is necessary to take the method of multi-factor evaluation. In order to give a complete and comprehensive evaluation on the FDI utilization ability, we should consider about many specific factors, and it is necessary to take the method of multi-factor evaluation. The multi-factor evaluation on FDI utilization ability in particularly, is to transfer a group of factors with different dimensions to relative comparable data without dimensions, with correspondent weights, and then synthesis these evaluation factors to a comprehensive evaluation value of the country or region, with the help of certain econometric model. Finally, for the evaluation results, we should conduct a statistically posterior test, to confirm the rationality of the evaluation model.
There are many methods of multi-factor evaluation in current academia, these methods can be classified to two sorts by the way of weight determination:the first one is subjective weighting, like Delphi and AHP, the weight coefficient is determined mostly by comprehensive consultation ratings, and it depends on the knowledge, experience and preferences of the expert. With a distinctive subjectivity, there will be a probability of expanding or reducing the role of some indicators, that leads the sort results cannot reflect the reality of relationships between items. The other one is objective weighting, determining the weight by the relationship between the index and the variation of the indicators'value, also avoid the bias caused by subjective factors, such as mean square method, entropy and factor analysis. Here we choose the second method in order to avoid the subjective bias, and it needs handle the problems such as selection of evaluation model, the dimensionless variables, index weight distribution and tests after evaluation. The multi-factor evaluation on FDI utilization ability in particularly, is to transfer a group of factors with different dimensions to relative comparable data without dimensions, with correspondent weights, and then synthesis these evaluation factors to a comprehensive evaluation value of the country or region, with the help of certain econometric model. Finally, for the evaluation results, we should conduct a statistically posterior test, to confirm the rationality of the evaluation model, than we obtain comprehensive evaluation of the results, thus we complete assessment of the six SEE countries FDI utilization ability by using 2009 statistical data and we make an overall estimation of the results and after we indentify some problems which exists for these countries ability in using FDI, we propose policy recommendations for these six SEE countries to further improve their FDI utilization ability.
In this research method, we combine qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, principal component analysis and other evaluation methods. In a series of studies under the assumption of certain premises, authors draw these main conclusions upon empirical comparison:(1) host country's FDI utilization ability promotes economic growth, technological progress, trade expansion, and upgrades the industrial structure; (2) there are obvious differences in 6 SEE countries in FDI utilization abilities, regions with better economic development have higher FDI utilization ability and regions with backward economic development have a lower FDI utilization ability. (3) The host country's foreign investment policy on FDI have a significant role on improving FDI utilization ability. (4) By improving investment environment and promoting more FDI on R & D subjects of investments and developing reasonable guidance and other foreign policy measures for FDI, can improve the ability of South-East European countries in FDI utilization.
We can see the innovations of this research in three aspects:
(1) Most of existing research on FDI is done separately based on different aspects and angles of view, such as comparative advantages of location, largest multinational companies chasing profits, host country's economic growth driven of foreign capital inflow, from the angle of technological progress studying various effects of FDI inflows etc. It is only lately that some researchers began to explore China's FDI performance, FDI quality and other issues. For SEE countries, scholars till now have not made such a research on SEE countries FDI utilization ability or comparative Studies on the use of FDI ability have not appeared yet. Building a theoretical system in order to objectively assessing the ability of the host country FDI theory using, is of great challenge. On one hand, the current academic, from the outlook of the host country's FDI utilization ability is also very limited; on the other hand, the economies in transition are having rapid economic growth and modernization process, so in order to use FDI to improve their participation in the international economy and expand the level of foreign trade, to use FDI to play a greater role in the context of economic globalization on the host country's economic growth, technological progress, industrial upgrading, etc., we have to innovatively build a kind of theory to give a more scientific answer, this research is based on host country's FDI ability to effect the economic growth, foreign trade, technological progress, industrial upgrading and by that trying to build theoretical system based on factor evaluation model which can scientifically assess of the host country FDI utilization ability.
(2) Empirical model innovations
As mentioned before, there are so many decisive factors which determine a region's FDI utilization ability and there are very few scholars who have made research on this subject and till now it did not appear a more scientific research and reasonable indicators to assess the ability of region's FDI utilization ability. This paper has been based on other research literature analysis; it has pioneered the establishment of a comprehensive multi-index evaluation method, using econometric method on the SEE countries FDI utilization ability. We build this model in FDI utilization ability for first time. I believe that with the rapid development of science and technology, changing from industrial economy to a knowledge-based economy, statistics and technology in economic management scientific research will have increasingly widespread applications. In this study we will adapt to changing trends, establish quantitative evaluation model. At the same time, by using SPSS 13.0 integrated descriptive statistical analysis, factor analysis, validity analysis, reliability analysis, correlation analysis, statistical analysis methods etc., we form the data needed for this study.
(3) Remarks and discussions
In order to decrease problems assessed from current FDI utilization ability of SEE countries and to further improve capacity utilization FDI policy, for first time in innovative way, we put forward our remarks and recommendations. From this point of view, we first examine these issues in these countries, so for the first time also made such a proposal.
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