中国企业出口贸易和对外直接投资模型研究
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摘要
进入新千年以来,行业内部不同企业之间的生产率差异即企业的异质性被纳入一般均衡贸易模型,同时也给贸易理论带来了新的聚焦角度:通过关注个体企业的特征来分析个体企业的组织结构选择。本研究将异质性引入到全球价值链分工背景下中国企业的国际扩张行为模型研究中,以中国企业在价值链中的地位提升为区位维度,从国际贸易理论的研究范畴整合和拓展了一个新的基于价值链地位的企业优势概念,将竞争对手行为引入企业决策空间维度,构建了一个中国企业出口贸易和对外直接投资(FDI)的内生动态均衡模型,旨在对全球价值链分工深化进程中中国企业出口贸易和FDI的内生最优化决策做出理论诠释和实践指导。在WTO的规制下,这种基于企业异质性的微观贸易投资理论模型研究对指导中国对外开放的实践和政策的制定有重要的理论和现实意义。
     本论文研究采用规范的理论分析与实证研究相结合。在理论模型上,运用国际经济学、产业经济学、竞争力经济学及博弈论等相关理论,构建比较规范的数理经济学模型,综合运用一般均衡分析、局部均衡分析、比较静态分析、博弈分析和模拟运算等方法和工具;在实证分析中,综合运用案例分析、统计学中的描述统计、相关性分析和计量经济学中的Probit模型。
     本研究的主体为四个模型,主要结论如下:
     针对仅在价值链低端环节具有初级要素优势的中国企业,本研究探讨了生产率、工资率、可变贸易成本和固定成本综合作用下企业进入外国市场的最优选择模型,验证“邻近一集中”权衡的合理性;并将模型扩展到多国市场和差异工资率情形。同时,一般均衡分析结果指出市场分割成本作用下的克鲁格曼母国市场效应会弱化,在经验分析的基础上对国家行政制度改革和物流基础设施建设提出建议,并预计伴随着市场分割打破的进程,国家某些产品出口可能会先减少后增加。
     通过工艺改进和产品质量改进,中国企业在价值链较高增值环节积累了一定优势。在特定条件下,企业可以对价值链战略环节所在国进行对外直接投资;单工厂型FDI也可能成为中国本土企业将来FDI的一种方向。贸易自由化可以扩大企业出口,但由于企业优势差异,贸易自由化无法推动所有企业实现技术升级。位于该阶段的企业也可进行技术优势寻求型FDI,除了必要的生产率要求外,还有三个重要条件需满足:其一为全球销售规模足够大;其二为对北方的投资能确实加快和增加对北方创新者知识了解的速度和程度;其三为该产业技术创新率应快于南方企业的相对技术学习率。通过将研发成功率变量内生化,在古诺均衡模型基础上,定量分析知识产权保护力度的影响作用,提出知识产权保护原则:渐进性和差异性。
     一旦成为价值链制高点控制者,中国企业就有能力实施复杂一体化战略。该战略是企业基于南北方国家要素禀赋差异、运输成本、市场容量、产品不同工序的要素投入比例差异以及自身的生产率水平等因素考虑的内生选择。其中低生产率企业选择出口,高生产率企业选择FDI,这符合西方异质性国际贸易理论思想。但由于企业位于发展中国家,其要素禀赋优势不同,所以复杂一体化战略优选结果与Grossman研究结果差异大。
     在与发达国家跨国公司竞争博弈过程中,中国企业可以将FDI和出口贸易作为竞争策略以扩大销售和提高创新报酬。究竞选择何种模式,这取决于市场结构条件、竞争双方的个体差异及所生产的产品间的替代和互补关系。其中,互补关系的博弈结果为竞争双方在第三国市场合作FDI提供了理论基础。因此,中国企业只有综合考虑竞争对手策略、竞争双方优势差异、竞争产品互补和替代关系、第三国要素报酬率和贸易成本等各类因素,才能制定出最优国际扩张策略以实现最大利润均衡值和最高研发均衡值。这改变了传统理论中FDI一定是优于出口的获得最大利润和最高研发报酬的国际扩张方式的观点。
     本文在侧重微观层次理论分析的基础上,还具有丰富的政策含义。首先,强调中国政府的角色定位,政府应在尊重企业国际化内生选择的前提下,定位于中国企业出口和FDI战略规划的促进者和服务者;其次,反垄断政策设计应更多地从国家整体利益出发,把增强国家产业竞争力作为重要目标,一方面要取消外资优惠待遇,限制发达国家跨国公司在中国垄断行为,创造内外资企业公平竞争环境,另一方面还需从全球市场竞争角度来看待本国企业规模经济和垄断之间的关系;第三,鼓励企业自有品牌出口,首先必须通过经济体制和行政制度的配套改革和物流基础设施建设打破市场分割;第四,建立知识产权的动态跟踪和预警机制。
As entry into new milliennium, the theoretical refinements have focused on theindividual firm, studying its choice in response to its own characteristics, the natureof the industry in which it operates, and the opportunities afforded by foreign tradeand investment, and the theoretical models of heterogeneous firms have beendeveloped. This study aims to develop a dynamic equilibrium model of export andFDI for Chinese firms from the points view of firms' upgrading position in thevalue-chain, integration of the concept of firms-level advantages, and strategies ofMNE as competitors, which will give an interpretation and instruction for the Chinesefirm' decision to export or FDI in the process of deep fragmentation of globalvalue-chain. We believe that this export-FDI model based on firms' heterogeneity willhave important theoretical and practical implication for the practice of China'sinternational economics cooperation and also government's open policy-making.
     This study adopts both theoretical and empirical analysis method. Specifically, intheoretical analyses, based on the theory of international economics, industrialeconomics, competitiveness economics and game theory, it mainly adoptscombination methods of static analysis with comparative static analysis inquantitative economics, combination methods of partial equilibrium with generalequilibrium methods, and tool of simulation and game. In empirical analysis, itmainly adopts case study, statistics and probit model.
     The paper is composed of four main models, and the main research results are asfollows:
     For a Chinese firm whose advantage lies in the low added-value part, the paperbuilds up a market entry model based on productivity level, wage difference, variabletrade cost and fixed cost, which prove the trade-off of proximity-concentration. Bytaking consideration of the costs of market fragmentation in the domestical markets,the general equilibrium result points out the home-market effect will be weakened. Asa result, the paper gives some suggestion on administration system reform andtransportation construction. In addition, the paper forecasts that in the process ofbreak-up of market fragmentation, the export volume of some products will firstlyreduce and later increase.
     Through the process and quality improvement, Chinese firms have accumulatedcertain advantages in the rather higher added-value part, and FDI to the developed countries will be feasible on the certain condition: The trade liberalization willencourage more firms to export; however, it will not give incentive to all the firms toupgrade technology. In addition, though firms at this stage lack of monopolisticadvantage, firm may undertake independently R&D activities in developed countriesand the key conditions lie in firm's productivity, sales volume, wage rates, innovationrate and learning rate. By the gournot model with endogenous variable of R&D rate,the paper proposes step-by-step and differential principles for intellectual propertyprotection.
     When Chinese firms become controller of highest added-value part, with themonopolistic advantage, they are able to choose optimal integration strategies. Wecharacterized industries by the size of the fixed costs of maintaining a foreignsubsidiary for production of intermediate goods and for assembly, the cost oftransporting intermediate and final goods internationally. For each category industry,we derived the equilibrium organizational forms of heterogeneous firms that differ intheir productivity. The model demonstrates optimal strategies different from that ofGrossman (2003).
     In the process of game competition with multinational enterprises, Chinese firmsmay choose FDI or export as strategies to augment sales and increase return toinvestment in R&D. Which kind of strategies is better, this will depend on thecompetitive market structure, the advantage difference betweens the rivals, thefactors prices of different objective countries, and the trade costs. Based on thegournot model of substitution relation between competitors, the result givestheoretical fundamentals for cooperative FDI in the third-part.
     As paper with micro-level model, the study also has rich political implications.Firstly, it points out that Chinese government should respect the firms endogenousprofit-maximization decision, and the position of government should be the promoteror server of planification of firms internationalization behavior; secondly, the designof anti-monopoly system should be based on the trade-off between scales-economyand monopoly from the point view of competition in global market; thirdly, thereform to break up market fragmentation should take place in both administrativesystem and economical system; fourthly, it is necessary to build up an on-linesupervisory system for intellectual property development.
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