中国煤炭行业生产效率的区域差异研究
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摘要
长期以来,生产效率一直是经济学研究的热点之一。从宏观层面对生产效率的分解与测算,是了解经济增长源泉与地区之间经济发展水平差异的关键。
而在我国中东部煤炭企业已开始进行跨区域转移的背景之下,通过对不同地区煤炭企业生产效率的测算与比较,可以使我们充分了解我国煤炭行业目前的整体发展水平、不同地区煤炭企业生产效率的差异以及其变化特征,并对造成生产效率地区差异的各类内外因素进行进一步研究。这对于制订与实施相应的煤炭企业的跨区域转移战略,无疑将具有重要的参考意义。为此本文使用基于MCMC的随机前沿生产函数模型,测算了我国16个主要煤炭产区1993-2006年间规模以上煤炭企业的全要素生产率(TFP),在此基础上,通过面板单位根检验与面板协整分析,对煤炭企业全要素生产率各组成部分的发展变化趋势及各种外生影响因素进行了分析。
对煤炭企业全要素生产率拆分计算的结果显示,我国煤炭企业总体的全要素生产率在不断提高。但不同省区之间煤炭企业生产效率的增长模式存在明显的差异:其中,西部新兴地区煤炭企业前沿技术进步在TFP中所占的比重越来越高,日益成为当地企业生产效率增长的核心;而中东部地区一些老煤炭企业的技术进步速度则相对较慢。此外,西部新兴地区煤炭企业技术效率虽然有一定上升,但与中东部省区之间的效率差距仍然较大。不同地区煤炭企业的规模效应也存在一定的差异,西部少部分省区的煤炭企业仍存在规模不经济现象。而由于资本与劳动力市场的不完善,西部地区煤炭企业的资源配置效率也要远低于中东部地区的同行。
对煤炭企业全要素生产率中各组成部分的发展变化趋势定量计算的结果表明:作为投入要素之一的煤炭企业人均资本存量增长存在着递减效应,但煤炭企业生产效率中的两大重要组成部分:技术进步与技术效率的增长并不存在绝对收敛。其中,煤炭企业的技术效率与规模效应与煤炭开采时间呈现倒“U”型关系。造成这一变化趋势的原因,主要在于老煤炭企业在关停破产矿井过程中,大量有实际生产管理经验的人员下岗或转岗,导致企业出现严重的人才流失。对目前准备进行跨地区转移的中东部煤炭企业来说,对于这一现象必须要引起足够的重视。
最后,论文从动态的角度分析了外生性因素变动对煤炭企业生产效率的影响。通过构造面板协整检验,我们发现:煤炭价格、煤炭行业市场集中度、人力资源和下游主要行业煤炭需求等外生性因素对煤炭企业的技术进步、技术效率等都具有一定的作用。
根据对煤炭行业生产效率的区域差距和各影响因素的分析,论文提出了未来煤炭企业跨区域转移策略中的两个重要问题。一是转移的时机选择问题,衰退煤炭企业只有在其人力资本尚具竞争力的条件下进行跨区域转移,才有可能实现自身优势与西部资源的成功耦合;二是进入模式的选择问题,煤炭转移企业要根据自身的生产效率,以及转移对象的不同,灵活选择兼并、联合、并购重组等多种转移策略。
Over the past two decades, measurement and decomposition of the productivity has attracted more and more intention in economics. The decomposition and calculation of the TFP are of key importance for evaluating the difference between the resources that accelerates the economy growth in different areas.
However, the lack of coal resource in eastern China at present makes the large falling mines urgent transfer from east to west to avoid the closure. With this in mind, we calculate the TFP of coal industry of different provinces to study the whole developmental level of coal industry, the disparity and characters of the productivity among different provinces. What’s more, we examine the exogenous and endogenous factors which cause the disparity of productivity in coal industry, which is of great importance to the policy implications for trans-regional strategy.
Using the stochastic frontier production model based on MCMC method, this paper examined the total factor productivity (TFP) growth of large and medium-sized coal enterprises among 16 provinces during the years 1993-2006 in China. By the test of panel unit root and panel cointegration, we also analysized the tendency of the TFP’s decomposition of coal industry.
The annual growth of TFP in China’s large and medium enterprises of coal industry is speeding up, but the growing mode is very different for the enterprises in different production phases. For the new enterprises in the west district with high reserves, the frontier technological progress has already become the core motive of TFP growth, whereas the technological progress of the old enterprises develops much more slowly. On the other hand, these new enterprises have lower level of the technical efficiency than that of the old firms, and the gap is getting larger. The scale economy and the allocative efficiency vary in different provinces. And the scale dis-economy is the common feature of the coal industry in the west. The allocative efficiency of the coal industry in the west can’t keep up with that of the old ones in the east and middle districts due to faultness of capital and labor market.
We used the modified panel unit root test to analyze the convergence of each resources of TFP, following the decomposition of the TFP of coal industry. The results show that the capital accumulation per worker is convergent, but another two important forces of TFP, Technological progress and technical efficiency, don’t have absolute convergence. The speed of the Technological progress is contrary to the time of coal production, and the technical efficiency and scale economy show an inverted U-shaped relation to the time of coal production. This fact indicated that before the insolvency of old mines, many veteran workers have been fired, which deserves much attention.
Based on the theoretical analysis, this work also examined some main exogenous influences on the productivity of coal industry. By the model of panel cointegration, it is found that human capital of high education levels, coal price, coal market concentration rate and the demand from the downstream firms all have impacts on the TFP of coal industry.
Finally, according to the regional differentiation of TFP in coal industry, this paper proposed two issues which are very important in the trans-regional strategy of coal industry. The first issue is the timing of transfer, only when the falling mines are still competitive in their human capital, the shift could be beneficial to the whole industry. The second issue is the mode choice of trans-regional strategy. The falling mines should choose proper strategy including annex, unite, mergers and acquisitions according to the productivity of their own and the character of the local mines.
而在我国中东部煤炭企业已开始进行跨区域转移的背景之下,通过对不同地区煤炭企业生产效率的测算与比较,可以使我们充分了解我国煤炭行业目前的整体发展水平、不同地区煤炭企业生产效率的差异以及其变化特征,并对造成生产效率地区差异的各类内外因素进行进一步研究。这对于制订与实施相应的煤炭企业的跨区域转移战略,无疑将具有重要的参考意义。为此本文使用基于MCMC的随机前沿生产函数模型,测算了我国16个主要煤炭产区1993-2006年间规模以上煤炭企业的全要素生产率(TFP),在此基础上,通过面板单位根检验与面板协整分析,对煤炭企业全要素生产率各组成部分的发展变化趋势及各种外生影响因素进行了分析。
对煤炭企业全要素生产率拆分计算的结果显示,我国煤炭企业总体的全要素生产率在不断提高。但不同省区之间煤炭企业生产效率的增长模式存在明显的差异:其中,西部新兴地区煤炭企业前沿技术进步在TFP中所占的比重越来越高,日益成为当地企业生产效率增长的核心;而中东部地区一些老煤炭企业的技术进步速度则相对较慢。此外,西部新兴地区煤炭企业技术效率虽然有一定上升,但与中东部省区之间的效率差距仍然较大。不同地区煤炭企业的规模效应也存在一定的差异,西部少部分省区的煤炭企业仍存在规模不经济现象。而由于资本与劳动力市场的不完善,西部地区煤炭企业的资源配置效率也要远低于中东部地区的同行。
对煤炭企业全要素生产率中各组成部分的发展变化趋势定量计算的结果表明:作为投入要素之一的煤炭企业人均资本存量增长存在着递减效应,但煤炭企业生产效率中的两大重要组成部分:技术进步与技术效率的增长并不存在绝对收敛。其中,煤炭企业的技术效率与规模效应与煤炭开采时间呈现倒“U”型关系。造成这一变化趋势的原因,主要在于老煤炭企业在关停破产矿井过程中,大量有实际生产管理经验的人员下岗或转岗,导致企业出现严重的人才流失。对目前准备进行跨地区转移的中东部煤炭企业来说,对于这一现象必须要引起足够的重视。
最后,论文从动态的角度分析了外生性因素变动对煤炭企业生产效率的影响。通过构造面板协整检验,我们发现:煤炭价格、煤炭行业市场集中度、人力资源和下游主要行业煤炭需求等外生性因素对煤炭企业的技术进步、技术效率等都具有一定的作用。
根据对煤炭行业生产效率的区域差距和各影响因素的分析,论文提出了未来煤炭企业跨区域转移策略中的两个重要问题。一是转移的时机选择问题,衰退煤炭企业只有在其人力资本尚具竞争力的条件下进行跨区域转移,才有可能实现自身优势与西部资源的成功耦合;二是进入模式的选择问题,煤炭转移企业要根据自身的生产效率,以及转移对象的不同,灵活选择兼并、联合、并购重组等多种转移策略。
Over the past two decades, measurement and decomposition of the productivity has attracted more and more intention in economics. The decomposition and calculation of the TFP are of key importance for evaluating the difference between the resources that accelerates the economy growth in different areas.
However, the lack of coal resource in eastern China at present makes the large falling mines urgent transfer from east to west to avoid the closure. With this in mind, we calculate the TFP of coal industry of different provinces to study the whole developmental level of coal industry, the disparity and characters of the productivity among different provinces. What’s more, we examine the exogenous and endogenous factors which cause the disparity of productivity in coal industry, which is of great importance to the policy implications for trans-regional strategy.
Using the stochastic frontier production model based on MCMC method, this paper examined the total factor productivity (TFP) growth of large and medium-sized coal enterprises among 16 provinces during the years 1993-2006 in China. By the test of panel unit root and panel cointegration, we also analysized the tendency of the TFP’s decomposition of coal industry.
The annual growth of TFP in China’s large and medium enterprises of coal industry is speeding up, but the growing mode is very different for the enterprises in different production phases. For the new enterprises in the west district with high reserves, the frontier technological progress has already become the core motive of TFP growth, whereas the technological progress of the old enterprises develops much more slowly. On the other hand, these new enterprises have lower level of the technical efficiency than that of the old firms, and the gap is getting larger. The scale economy and the allocative efficiency vary in different provinces. And the scale dis-economy is the common feature of the coal industry in the west. The allocative efficiency of the coal industry in the west can’t keep up with that of the old ones in the east and middle districts due to faultness of capital and labor market.
We used the modified panel unit root test to analyze the convergence of each resources of TFP, following the decomposition of the TFP of coal industry. The results show that the capital accumulation per worker is convergent, but another two important forces of TFP, Technological progress and technical efficiency, don’t have absolute convergence. The speed of the Technological progress is contrary to the time of coal production, and the technical efficiency and scale economy show an inverted U-shaped relation to the time of coal production. This fact indicated that before the insolvency of old mines, many veteran workers have been fired, which deserves much attention.
Based on the theoretical analysis, this work also examined some main exogenous influences on the productivity of coal industry. By the model of panel cointegration, it is found that human capital of high education levels, coal price, coal market concentration rate and the demand from the downstream firms all have impacts on the TFP of coal industry.
Finally, according to the regional differentiation of TFP in coal industry, this paper proposed two issues which are very important in the trans-regional strategy of coal industry. The first issue is the timing of transfer, only when the falling mines are still competitive in their human capital, the shift could be beneficial to the whole industry. The second issue is the mode choice of trans-regional strategy. The falling mines should choose proper strategy including annex, unite, mergers and acquisitions according to the productivity of their own and the character of the local mines.
引文
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