爆破工程风险管理
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摘要
爆破工程项目一般是在复杂的自然和社会环境中进行的,其中充满了大量不确定性因素,由此产生的风险常常影响了工程项目的顺利实施,迫切需要对爆破工程项目进行风险的管理。尽管目前国内外工程项目风险管理的理论研究已经具备一定的水平,一般性工程项目风险分析和评估的方法也很多,但是由于对这些风险分析技术的实际应用情况没有系统的进行归纳整理,特别在面对具体的爆破工程风险时,往往选择不恰当的分析技术对风险实施分析和评估。最终的结果是对工程项目的风险认识和分析不够,增加了风险管理的难度,直接影响了工程建设的安全、质量、进度和成本目标,损害了项目的效益。
首先对国内外项目风险管理研究进行比较,分析国内外学术界在风险研究方面的差异,提出了目前在爆破工程风险管理方面急需等待解决的问题；研究了目前广泛使用的风险分析方法,并对这些风险分析方法的优缺点以及适用条件进行对比分析。重点研究了层次分析法和模糊综合评估这两种方法,通过将层次分析法运用于爆破工程项目风险评估,根据风险分析目的的不同,分别建立了不同的层次结构模型。解决了工程项目风险分析中的三个重要问题：单个风险因素对项目的重要性排序、系统总体风险度的评估以及风险应对方案的选择；在此基础上,最后重点研究风险分析方法应用于具体爆破工程项目的风险管理实践中,通过对爆破工程项目的实证风险分析,论证了在爆破工程项目中实行风险管理的必要性。
全文既有理论研究部分又有实证分析,为将来在爆破工程项目风险管理中提供一个理论及实践上的借鉴,促使企业能进一步做好项目风险管理工作。通过对爆破工程进行有效的风险管理,使工程项目按照计划进行,尽量保证项目得到顺利实施,减少风险的危害程度,使工程安全、质量、进度、费用目标得到有效的管理和控制。
Blasting Engineering Projects are often in a complex natural and social environment, Which Is full of a lot of uncertainties usually the resulting risk affects the smooth implement of the Project that the Blasting engineering Project has the urgent need to strengthen the risk management. Despite the current domestic and international project risk management theory studies have a certain level, general engineering project risk analysis and evaluation methods are many, but because of the risk analysis is not the practical application of the system for induction order, in particular, blasting in the face of specific risks, often choose not to appropriate analysis of risk analysis and evaluation of the implementation. The end result is a project risk analysis is not enough awareness and increase the difficulty of risk management, project directly affected the safety, quality, schedule and cost targets, damaging the effectiveness of the project.
First of all domestic and international comparative research project risk management, analysis of domestic and international academic research on the differences in risk and put forward the current risk management in the blasting needed to wait to solve the problem; studied the widely used risk analysis methods, and strengths and weaknesses of these risk analysis methods and application conditions were compared. Focuses on AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the two methods, used by AHP blasting engineering risk assessment, risk analysis according to different purposes, different levels were established model. Project risk analysis addresses the three important issues:the individual risk factors on the importance of the project ranking system, the overall degree of risk assessment and risk response plan options. Focuses on the final risk analysis method is applied to specific blasting engineering risk management practice, through the empirical blasting engineering risk analysis, demonstration projects in the explosion in the need for risk management。
There are both theoretical part of the full text of an empirical analysis for the future blasting engineering risk management theory and practice to provide a reference, encourage enterprises to further improve the project risk management。 Blasting engineering through effective risk management of the project carried out according to plan as far as possible ensure that the project have been implemented successfully reduce the risk of damage degree, so that the project safety, quality, schedule, cost goals are effective management and control.
首先对国内外项目风险管理研究进行比较,分析国内外学术界在风险研究方面的差异,提出了目前在爆破工程风险管理方面急需等待解决的问题；研究了目前广泛使用的风险分析方法,并对这些风险分析方法的优缺点以及适用条件进行对比分析。重点研究了层次分析法和模糊综合评估这两种方法,通过将层次分析法运用于爆破工程项目风险评估,根据风险分析目的的不同,分别建立了不同的层次结构模型。解决了工程项目风险分析中的三个重要问题：单个风险因素对项目的重要性排序、系统总体风险度的评估以及风险应对方案的选择；在此基础上,最后重点研究风险分析方法应用于具体爆破工程项目的风险管理实践中,通过对爆破工程项目的实证风险分析,论证了在爆破工程项目中实行风险管理的必要性。
全文既有理论研究部分又有实证分析,为将来在爆破工程项目风险管理中提供一个理论及实践上的借鉴,促使企业能进一步做好项目风险管理工作。通过对爆破工程进行有效的风险管理,使工程项目按照计划进行,尽量保证项目得到顺利实施,减少风险的危害程度,使工程安全、质量、进度、费用目标得到有效的管理和控制。
Blasting Engineering Projects are often in a complex natural and social environment, Which Is full of a lot of uncertainties usually the resulting risk affects the smooth implement of the Project that the Blasting engineering Project has the urgent need to strengthen the risk management. Despite the current domestic and international project risk management theory studies have a certain level, general engineering project risk analysis and evaluation methods are many, but because of the risk analysis is not the practical application of the system for induction order, in particular, blasting in the face of specific risks, often choose not to appropriate analysis of risk analysis and evaluation of the implementation. The end result is a project risk analysis is not enough awareness and increase the difficulty of risk management, project directly affected the safety, quality, schedule and cost targets, damaging the effectiveness of the project.
First of all domestic and international comparative research project risk management, analysis of domestic and international academic research on the differences in risk and put forward the current risk management in the blasting needed to wait to solve the problem; studied the widely used risk analysis methods, and strengths and weaknesses of these risk analysis methods and application conditions were compared. Focuses on AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the two methods, used by AHP blasting engineering risk assessment, risk analysis according to different purposes, different levels were established model. Project risk analysis addresses the three important issues:the individual risk factors on the importance of the project ranking system, the overall degree of risk assessment and risk response plan options. Focuses on the final risk analysis method is applied to specific blasting engineering risk management practice, through the empirical blasting engineering risk analysis, demonstration projects in the explosion in the need for risk management。
There are both theoretical part of the full text of an empirical analysis for the future blasting engineering risk management theory and practice to provide a reference, encourage enterprises to further improve the project risk management。 Blasting engineering through effective risk management of the project carried out according to plan as far as possible ensure that the project have been implemented successfully reduce the risk of damage degree, so that the project safety, quality, schedule, cost goals are effective management and control.
引文
[1]王玉杰.爆破工程[M].武汉：武汉理工大学出版社,2007
[2]王海亮.铁路工程爆破[M].北京中国铁道出版社,2001
[3]魏一鸣,童光煦,阳纯友等.矿山安全管理的模糊评价方法[J].中国锰业,1994(4)：p79-83
[4]徐东业.建筑工程项目风险管理的研究[D].辽宁工程技术大学硕士学位论文,2006.12
[5]尹志军等.我国工程项目风险管理进展研究[J].基建优化,2002,8
[6]李丽.工程项目全面风险管理的理论与方法研究[D].北京工业大学硕士学位论文,2002.04
[7]傅纪军.工程项目全面风险管理[D]重庆大学硕士学位论文,2002.03
[8]周强,庙延刚,张智宇等.工程爆破安全评价指标体系及权重赋值研究[J]. 采矿技术,2008,8(3)：133-135
[9]李海凌,宋吉荣.层次分析法在工程项目评价中的应用研究,四川建筑,2004.2
[10]许树柏.层次分析法原理[M].天津：天津大学出版社,1988
[11]王莲芬等.层次分析法引论[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1988
[13]王德海.现代项目管理的理论与方法[M].北京：中国农业出版社,1998
[14]宋明哲.风险管理.台北：中华企业管理发展中心,1984.321-324
[15]钱昊,马维珍.层次分析法在项目风险管理中的应用,兰州交通人学学报(自然科学版),2005.6
[16]闫兆林等.AHP在概率风险评价中的应用[J].工业与防尘,2001(5)
[17]尹志军.我国工程项目风险管理进展研究[J].基建优化,2002(4)
[18]毕星,邓韬著.项目管理精要[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2002.7
[19]Widemen Rw. Risk Management Project Management Journal,1986 17(4)
[20]Robert N. Charette. Software Engineering Risk Analysis and Management. New. York:Mc Graw-Hill Book Company 1989
[21]Terry M Williams. Using a risk register to integrate risk management in project definition[J]. International Journal of Project Management,1994,12(1)
[22]Hull J K. Application of risk analysis techniques in proposal assessment[J]. International Journal of Project Management,1990,8(3)
[23]Ranasinghe M., Risk management in the insurance industry:insights for the engineering construction industry. Construction Management and Economics, VO1. 16,1998.
[24]唐坤,卢玲玲.建筑工程项目风险与全面风险管理.建筑经济,2004.4.
[25]安忠等.工程项目的风险分析与管理[J].中国港湾建设,1999(2).
[26]W. llianms. C., Anhur. Jr., S mith Michael. L, et al. Risk Management and Insurance. Construction Research COngress,1995.157-15
[27]Widemen Rw. Risk Management Project Management Journal,1986.67-69
[28]刘伊生.建设项目管理.北京：北方交通大学出版社,2004.56-69
[29]冯叔瑜,顾毅成,安全：爆破工程永恒的主题——2001年重大拆除爆破工程回顾.爆破,2002,19(1)：1-4
[30]陈庆凯,梅智学,赵德孝.工程爆破技术与安全管理[M].沈阳：东北大学出版社,2002
[31]赵铁锤.某大厦爆破拆除工程安全性评价[J].中国计量学院学报,2005,16(1)：51-55
[32]王玉杰,黄平路.土岩爆破作业安全评价与事故分析[J].安全与环境工程,2004.11(1)：95-97
[33]张海波.建(构)筑物拆除爆破安全评价方法及应用研究[C].[硕士学位论文].桂林：广西大学,2007
[34]聂志龙,刘永强,方国华. 层次分析法在爆破安全管理中的应用.爆破[J],2007,4(24)：85-87
[35]杨磊,王卫军,林大能.基于PHA的城市控制爆破安全评价研究.工程爆破[J],2005,3(11)：79-82
[36]张树云.试论工程爆破中的安全评估[C].工程爆破,1996,(3)：69-71
[37]秦清风,马红茂.城市控制爆破的安全管理.机械管理开发,2007,(6)
[38]李俊涛,王凤英. 模糊综合评价在拆除爆破安全评价[J]中的应用[C]。科技情报开发与经济,2006,(1)
[39]卿姚,王月明.我国工程项目风险管理研究综述[C].四川建筑科学研究,2007,(02)
[40]沈建明.项目风险管理[M]北京：机械工业出版社,2004
[41]Terry Lyons, Martin Skitmore. Project risk management in the Queensland engineering construction industry:a survey. International Journal of Project Management.2004, (22):51-61
[42]Fiona D. Patterson, Kevin Neailey. A risk registers database system to aid the management of project risk. Imitational Journal of Project Management.2002, (20):365-374
[43]YH. Kwak, J. Stoddard. Project risk management:lessons learned from software development environment. Technovation.2004, (24):915.920
[44]Ranasinghe M., Risk management in the insurance industry:insights for the engineering construction industry. Construction Management and Economics, VOl.16,1998.
[45]Terry M Williams. Using a risk register to integrate risk management in project definition[J]. International Journal of Project Management,1994,12(1)
[46]R. Gareis. Handbook of Management by Project. MANZ. Vienna,1990
[47]Widemen Rw. Risk Management Project Management Journal,1986 17(4)
[48]Roozbeh Kangar. Risk Management Perception And Trends of U. S. Construction: J. Constr. Engrg. And Mgmt., ASCE, VOl.121, NO.4,422-429
[49]L. Bing, Robert Lee-Kong Tiog:Risk Management in International Construction Joint Ventures, J. constr. Engrg. And Mgmt., ASCE, VOl. 125, NO.4,227-284
[50]张树云.试论工程爆破中的安全评估[J].工程爆破,1996,(03)
[51]黄平路.中深孔爆破安全评价方法的研究[C].武汉理工大学,2004.
[52]张蕊,刘尔思.项目风险管理层次分析评价方法研究[J].山西建筑,2009,(07)
[53]蔡涛.工程项目风险管理研究[J].中国科技信息,2008,(03)
[54]段金林.基于模糊逻辑故障树法的项目风险分析[J].陕西建筑,2009,(06)
[55]李海凌,刘克剑,李芋.模糊综合评价在工程项目风险评价中的应用研究,西华大学学报,2005.1
[56]郭仲伟.风险分析与决策[M].北京：机械工业出版社,1987：30-36
[57]沈建明,钱福培,白思俊等.项目风险管理[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2004：8,15,134,135
[58]李战军,郑柄旭.爆破拆除工程安全管理[M].采矿技术,2007,7(1)94-96
[59]卢梅,秦亚萍,史经新.土岩爆破作业控制程序[M].西部探矿工程,2007,(10)233-234
[60]贾庆.工程施工项目管理风险及其防范策略.集团经济研究,2005,(10)：31-32
[2]王海亮.铁路工程爆破[M].北京中国铁道出版社,2001
[3]魏一鸣,童光煦,阳纯友等.矿山安全管理的模糊评价方法[J].中国锰业,1994(4)：p79-83
[4]徐东业.建筑工程项目风险管理的研究[D].辽宁工程技术大学硕士学位论文,2006.12
[5]尹志军等.我国工程项目风险管理进展研究[J].基建优化,2002,8
[6]李丽.工程项目全面风险管理的理论与方法研究[D].北京工业大学硕士学位论文,2002.04
[7]傅纪军.工程项目全面风险管理[D]重庆大学硕士学位论文,2002.03
[8]周强,庙延刚,张智宇等.工程爆破安全评价指标体系及权重赋值研究[J]. 采矿技术,2008,8(3)：133-135
[9]李海凌,宋吉荣.层次分析法在工程项目评价中的应用研究,四川建筑,2004.2
[10]许树柏.层次分析法原理[M].天津：天津大学出版社,1988
[11]王莲芬等.层次分析法引论[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1988
[13]王德海.现代项目管理的理论与方法[M].北京：中国农业出版社,1998
[14]宋明哲.风险管理.台北：中华企业管理发展中心,1984.321-324
[15]钱昊,马维珍.层次分析法在项目风险管理中的应用,兰州交通人学学报(自然科学版),2005.6
[16]闫兆林等.AHP在概率风险评价中的应用[J].工业与防尘,2001(5)
[17]尹志军.我国工程项目风险管理进展研究[J].基建优化,2002(4)
[18]毕星,邓韬著.项目管理精要[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2002.7
[19]Widemen Rw. Risk Management Project Management Journal,1986 17(4)
[20]Robert N. Charette. Software Engineering Risk Analysis and Management. New. York:Mc Graw-Hill Book Company 1989
[21]Terry M Williams. Using a risk register to integrate risk management in project definition[J]. International Journal of Project Management,1994,12(1)
[22]Hull J K. Application of risk analysis techniques in proposal assessment[J]. International Journal of Project Management,1990,8(3)
[23]Ranasinghe M., Risk management in the insurance industry:insights for the engineering construction industry. Construction Management and Economics, VO1. 16,1998.
[24]唐坤,卢玲玲.建筑工程项目风险与全面风险管理.建筑经济,2004.4.
[25]安忠等.工程项目的风险分析与管理[J].中国港湾建设,1999(2).
[26]W. llianms. C., Anhur. Jr., S mith Michael. L, et al. Risk Management and Insurance. Construction Research COngress,1995.157-15
[27]Widemen Rw. Risk Management Project Management Journal,1986.67-69
[28]刘伊生.建设项目管理.北京：北方交通大学出版社,2004.56-69
[29]冯叔瑜,顾毅成,安全：爆破工程永恒的主题——2001年重大拆除爆破工程回顾.爆破,2002,19(1)：1-4
[30]陈庆凯,梅智学,赵德孝.工程爆破技术与安全管理[M].沈阳：东北大学出版社,2002
[31]赵铁锤.某大厦爆破拆除工程安全性评价[J].中国计量学院学报,2005,16(1)：51-55
[32]王玉杰,黄平路.土岩爆破作业安全评价与事故分析[J].安全与环境工程,2004.11(1)：95-97
[33]张海波.建(构)筑物拆除爆破安全评价方法及应用研究[C].[硕士学位论文].桂林：广西大学,2007
[34]聂志龙,刘永强,方国华. 层次分析法在爆破安全管理中的应用.爆破[J],2007,4(24)：85-87
[35]杨磊,王卫军,林大能.基于PHA的城市控制爆破安全评价研究.工程爆破[J],2005,3(11)：79-82
[36]张树云.试论工程爆破中的安全评估[C].工程爆破,1996,(3)：69-71
[37]秦清风,马红茂.城市控制爆破的安全管理.机械管理开发,2007,(6)
[38]李俊涛,王凤英. 模糊综合评价在拆除爆破安全评价[J]中的应用[C]。科技情报开发与经济,2006,(1)
[39]卿姚,王月明.我国工程项目风险管理研究综述[C].四川建筑科学研究,2007,(02)
[40]沈建明.项目风险管理[M]北京：机械工业出版社,2004
[41]Terry Lyons, Martin Skitmore. Project risk management in the Queensland engineering construction industry:a survey. International Journal of Project Management.2004, (22):51-61
[42]Fiona D. Patterson, Kevin Neailey. A risk registers database system to aid the management of project risk. Imitational Journal of Project Management.2002, (20):365-374
[43]YH. Kwak, J. Stoddard. Project risk management:lessons learned from software development environment. Technovation.2004, (24):915.920
[44]Ranasinghe M., Risk management in the insurance industry:insights for the engineering construction industry. Construction Management and Economics, VOl.16,1998.
[45]Terry M Williams. Using a risk register to integrate risk management in project definition[J]. International Journal of Project Management,1994,12(1)
[46]R. Gareis. Handbook of Management by Project. MANZ. Vienna,1990
[47]Widemen Rw. Risk Management Project Management Journal,1986 17(4)
[48]Roozbeh Kangar. Risk Management Perception And Trends of U. S. Construction: J. Constr. Engrg. And Mgmt., ASCE, VOl.121, NO.4,422-429
[49]L. Bing, Robert Lee-Kong Tiog:Risk Management in International Construction Joint Ventures, J. constr. Engrg. And Mgmt., ASCE, VOl. 125, NO.4,227-284
[50]张树云.试论工程爆破中的安全评估[J].工程爆破,1996,(03)
[51]黄平路.中深孔爆破安全评价方法的研究[C].武汉理工大学,2004.
[52]张蕊,刘尔思.项目风险管理层次分析评价方法研究[J].山西建筑,2009,(07)
[53]蔡涛.工程项目风险管理研究[J].中国科技信息,2008,(03)
[54]段金林.基于模糊逻辑故障树法的项目风险分析[J].陕西建筑,2009,(06)
[55]李海凌,刘克剑,李芋.模糊综合评价在工程项目风险评价中的应用研究,西华大学学报,2005.1
[56]郭仲伟.风险分析与决策[M].北京：机械工业出版社,1987：30-36
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