公交车行程时间预测方法研究
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摘要
实施信号交叉口的公交优先是缓解我国大城市交通压力的有效途径之一,而预测公交车从检测器至停车线的行程时间,获取公交车到达停车线时刻则是实施公交信号优先的重要前提。目前关于公交车行程时间预测方面的研究多是从智能公交系统管理角度出发,检测公交车辆线路信息,预测路段行程时间,为公交车的科学调度服务,而从公交信号优先角度进行的相关研究很少。
本文以信号交叉口的公交优先为研究背景,对公交车辆信息获取及公交车行程时间预测等若干关键问题进行了研究,论文内容主要有以下几个方面:
1)分析了公交信号优先控制的公交信息检测需求,设计了公交信息采集及处理系统的框架结构;在现有车辆检测方法的基础之上,分别提出了基于固定检测器和基于移动检测器的公交信息检测方法;最后针对不同公交信息检测方法设计了公交信息传输流程。
2)基于普通信号配时,分别建立了无公交专用道交叉口和有公交专用道交叉口的公交车行程时间预测模型,用以预测公交车到达交叉口停车线的时间。
3)分别基于固定检测器和移动检测器方法对公交车行程时间预测模型进行了验证,采用VB语言开发了公交车动态监控程序及行程时间预测程序。
实验结果表明,本文所建立的公交车行程时间预测模型具有较高精度及较强的适用性。本文的研究可以为公交信号优先控制提供有力的理论依据与技术支持。
Bus priority is one signal timing technique that considers the bus benefits. According to information of buses and social vehicles collected by detectors, it allocates the way leave between buses and social vehicles by signal timing technique to realize its strategies. Bus signal priority (BSP) can improve bus speed and its service reliability, which can make great contributions to bus affinity.
BSP concludes four aspects, which are bus information detection, bus information disposal, signal timing optimization model and signal timing scheme generation. Bus information detection and disposal are the foundation of BSP, they involve bus information demand analysis, detection methods determine, detectors location optimization and bus information transfer design. All of these have nearly relation with the architecture of priority control system and the optimization method of signal timing. Therefore, there are great significance for researching on bus information detection and disposal.
At present, the research fruit about bus information detection and disposal mainly centralized on bus intelligent management, which adopts advanced bus detection technique, and predicting bus travel time between two bus stops for the electronic stops display, all the above research are one part of ATIS. But there are few results about bus information detection and disposal in the view of bus signal priority, so it can not satisfy the demand of BSP.
This article analysis the information demands of every BSP pattern firstly, and then designs the architecture of bus information collection system based on the demand analysis. The collection method of bus information is one focal point in this article. By analysis the characteristic of different detectors, we design two detection methods, one is based on double loop plus identify card, and the other one is based on GPS, the design the bus information transfer channel for different bus information detection method.
In the aspect of bus information disposal, it needs to provide direct information to bus signal optimization, so the bus travel time prediction from bus detector to stop line is the focal point of this article. We divide bus travel time into two parts, one is the time for waiting for green light start, and the other one is the dissipation time of vehicles in queue in front of the bus. Based on simple signal timing and considering factors such as vehicle volume of the lane, signal timing scheme, vehicle dissipation time and bus arrival time, and establish bus travel time prediction model for intersections with bus land and without bus lane. At the same time, the article also discusses the detectors location methods.
The validation of the travel time prediction model is another important issue in this article. At first, we introduce the validation method based on fixed bus detector, and validating the precision of travel time prediction model based on that detection method. Then this article pay great attention on the validation based on GPS data, developing the bus dynamic control program and bus travel time prediction program by VB, and analyses the validation results in detail. Comparative results show that the precision of the model based on fixed detection and GPS does not have significant difference, but it is a trend that adopting GPS in the bus for dynamic management.
At last, this article concludes the research results of this article and analysis the expectation of the coming research. All of the research is one part of bus signal priority system, the results can provide theory basis and technique support.
本文以信号交叉口的公交优先为研究背景,对公交车辆信息获取及公交车行程时间预测等若干关键问题进行了研究,论文内容主要有以下几个方面:
1)分析了公交信号优先控制的公交信息检测需求,设计了公交信息采集及处理系统的框架结构;在现有车辆检测方法的基础之上,分别提出了基于固定检测器和基于移动检测器的公交信息检测方法;最后针对不同公交信息检测方法设计了公交信息传输流程。
2)基于普通信号配时,分别建立了无公交专用道交叉口和有公交专用道交叉口的公交车行程时间预测模型,用以预测公交车到达交叉口停车线的时间。
3)分别基于固定检测器和移动检测器方法对公交车行程时间预测模型进行了验证,采用VB语言开发了公交车动态监控程序及行程时间预测程序。
实验结果表明,本文所建立的公交车行程时间预测模型具有较高精度及较强的适用性。本文的研究可以为公交信号优先控制提供有力的理论依据与技术支持。
Bus priority is one signal timing technique that considers the bus benefits. According to information of buses and social vehicles collected by detectors, it allocates the way leave between buses and social vehicles by signal timing technique to realize its strategies. Bus signal priority (BSP) can improve bus speed and its service reliability, which can make great contributions to bus affinity.
BSP concludes four aspects, which are bus information detection, bus information disposal, signal timing optimization model and signal timing scheme generation. Bus information detection and disposal are the foundation of BSP, they involve bus information demand analysis, detection methods determine, detectors location optimization and bus information transfer design. All of these have nearly relation with the architecture of priority control system and the optimization method of signal timing. Therefore, there are great significance for researching on bus information detection and disposal.
At present, the research fruit about bus information detection and disposal mainly centralized on bus intelligent management, which adopts advanced bus detection technique, and predicting bus travel time between two bus stops for the electronic stops display, all the above research are one part of ATIS. But there are few results about bus information detection and disposal in the view of bus signal priority, so it can not satisfy the demand of BSP.
This article analysis the information demands of every BSP pattern firstly, and then designs the architecture of bus information collection system based on the demand analysis. The collection method of bus information is one focal point in this article. By analysis the characteristic of different detectors, we design two detection methods, one is based on double loop plus identify card, and the other one is based on GPS, the design the bus information transfer channel for different bus information detection method.
In the aspect of bus information disposal, it needs to provide direct information to bus signal optimization, so the bus travel time prediction from bus detector to stop line is the focal point of this article. We divide bus travel time into two parts, one is the time for waiting for green light start, and the other one is the dissipation time of vehicles in queue in front of the bus. Based on simple signal timing and considering factors such as vehicle volume of the lane, signal timing scheme, vehicle dissipation time and bus arrival time, and establish bus travel time prediction model for intersections with bus land and without bus lane. At the same time, the article also discusses the detectors location methods.
The validation of the travel time prediction model is another important issue in this article. At first, we introduce the validation method based on fixed bus detector, and validating the precision of travel time prediction model based on that detection method. Then this article pay great attention on the validation based on GPS data, developing the bus dynamic control program and bus travel time prediction program by VB, and analyses the validation results in detail. Comparative results show that the precision of the model based on fixed detection and GPS does not have significant difference, but it is a trend that adopting GPS in the bus for dynamic management.
At last, this article concludes the research results of this article and analysis the expectation of the coming research. All of the research is one part of bus signal priority system, the results can provide theory basis and technique support.
引文
[1] Alexander Skabardonis. Control Strategies for Transit priority. Transportation Research Board. Washington D. C. November 17, 1999. pp. 1~3
[2] Francois Dion, Bruce Hellinga. A rule-based real-time traffic responsive signal control system with transit priority: application to an isolated intersection [J]. Transportation Research Part B. 2002. pp. 325~343
[3]林赐云.公交信号优先系统设计及实施技术研究[D].吉林大学硕士学位论文,2007
[4] Yagar, S, and Han, B. A Procedure for Real-Time Signal Control That Considers Transit Interference and Priority. Transportation Research, Vol.28B, No.4, 1999. pp. 315~331
[5] Meenakshy Vasudevan, Gang-Len Chang. Design Framework for Integrating Real-Time Bus Priority Control with Robust Arterial Signal Progression [J]. Transportation Research Board 80th Annual Meeting Washington, D.C., 2001
[6] Jinwoo Lee, Amer Shalaby. Advanced Transit Signal Priority Control Using On-line Microsimulation-based Transit Prediction Model [J]. TRB Annual Meeting CD-ROM, 2005
[7]杨新苗等.基于准时信息的公交调度优化系统[J].交通与计算机,2000年第5期
[8]关伟,申金升等.公交优先的信号控制策略研究[J].系统工程学报,2001,16 (3)
[9]柳祖鹏,丁卫东,朱晓宏.交叉口公交优先信号控制系统研究[J].武汉科技大学学报(自然科学版),2005,28 (1).
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[11] Hongchao Liu,Alexander Skabardonis,Meng Li. Optimal Detector Location for Bus Signal Priority [C]. Transportation Research Board 83rd Annual Meeting,Washington, D.C. January 2004
[12]马万经等.一种公交信息采集和信息传输的方法及其实现系统:中国,200610030859.2[P].2006-10-03
[13]沈华.GPS技术在公交车上的应用[J].安徽电子信息职业技术学院学报,2006,(35):285-286
[14]邵健,李彦明,苗玉彬,刘成良.智能公交系统中的信息采集与处理技术[J].计算机工程,2008,34(12):274-276
[15]胡金星,刘允才.公交信息智能化管理系统框架及关键技术研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2005,5(4):13-16
[16] Wei-Hua Lin,Jian Zeng.An experimental study on real time next bus arrival time prediction with GPS data[C].Transportation Research Board 78th Annual Meeting,Washington,1999
[17] Turner, S. M., ITS Data Archiving: Case Study Analysis of San Antonio TRANSGUIDE Data, Report FHWA-PL-99-024, Texas Transportation Institute, 1999.
[18]周雪梅,杨晓光,王磊.公交车辆行程时间预测方法研究[J].交通与计算机,2002,20(6)
[19] Frechette,L.A. Bayesian Regression-Based Urban Traffic Models[J].Transportation Research Record 1644,Transportation Research Board,1998
[20] Abdelfattah,A, Khan,A.M. Models for predicting Bus Delays, Transportation Research Rocord 1623. Transportation Research Board,1998
[21] Patnaik, J., Chien, S, et al. Estimation of Bus Arrival Times Using APC data. Journal of Public Transportation. Volume7, November 1, 2004.
[22] Ding, Y., Chien, I. J. Dynamic Bus Arrival Time Prediction with Artificial Neural Networks. Journal of Transportation Engineering. Volume 128, Issue 5, pp.429-438, 2002.
[23] Jeong, R., and L. R. Rilett. Bus Arrival Time Prediction Using Artificial Neural Network Model. Proc., IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference, Washington, D.C., 2004, pp. 988–993.
[24]周文霞,徐建闽,刘正东.基于卡尔曼滤波算法的公交车辆行程时间预测[J].交通标准化.162(2/3),2007.
[25] Daily,D.J, Wall,Z.R. An algorithm and implementation to predict the arrival of transit vehicles[J].Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference Proceedings, Michigan, EEE, p.161-166,2000
[26] Shalaby,A., Farhan. Bus Travel Time Prediction Model for Dynamic Operations Control and Passenger Information Systems. Transportation Research Rocord. 82nd Annual Meeting, Washington D.C., 2003
[27] A Shalaby, A Farhan. Prediction model of bus arrival and departure times using AVL and APC data[J].Journal of Public Transportation, 2004
[28]李湘江,彭建.基于VB的实时数据采集程序设计[J].微计算机信息,2003,19(10):38-40
[29]刘红红,王鑫钥,杨兆升.城市公共交通优先的信号控制策略[J].公路交通科技,2004,Vol.21,No.5,121~124.
[30]季彦婕.交叉口公共交通优先通行方法研究[D]: [硕士学位论文]南京:东南大学,2003.
[31] DerHorng Lee,Wei Huang. A new method for multi-level bus prioritization at signalized intersections[A]. In the 84th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, 2004.
[32] Meng Li,Yafeng Yin,Hongchao Liu,Chin-Woo. Tan .Adaptive transit signal priority on actuated signalized corridors[A].In the 85th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, 2005.
[33]李胜乐译..MapInfo地理信息系统二次开发实例[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2004
[34]赵明生,李爱梅.基于MapInfo的GIS系统开发[J].福建电脑,2004(1)
[35]张娟,程绍文.基于VB与MaPinfo的电子地图实现[J].中国西部科技,2006(35):20-22
[36]张成才,孙喜梅,黄建红,潘存昕.基于MAPINFO电子地图制作方法研究[J].水土保持研究,2002,9(4):145-147
[37]三味工作室.MapInfo 6_0应用开发指南[D].北京:人民邮电出版社,2001
[38]姜玉林,杨保海.利用VB6_0处理GPS数据[J].九江学院学报(自然科学版),2005(4):7-10
[39]向先波,徐国华.Matlab环境下PC机与单片机的串行通信及数据处理[J].技术纵横,2004(12):27-31
[40]张立材.基于Matlab环境的串行数据通信[J].微计算机信息,2004(3)
[41]张其善,吴今培,杨东凯.智能车辆定位导航系统及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2002
[42]徐爱功,刘经南,王宏伟.车辆导航定位中地图匹配的MP模型[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报.2000,19(5):20-24
[43]毕军,付梦印,张宇河.基于D-S证据推理的车辆导航系统地图匹配算法[J].北京理工大学学报.2002(6):21-24
[44]许志海.车辆导航系统中定位数据处理和地图匹配技术[J].测绘学院学报,2003(4):331-334
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[2] Francois Dion, Bruce Hellinga. A rule-based real-time traffic responsive signal control system with transit priority: application to an isolated intersection [J]. Transportation Research Part B. 2002. pp. 325~343
[3]林赐云.公交信号优先系统设计及实施技术研究[D].吉林大学硕士学位论文,2007
[4] Yagar, S, and Han, B. A Procedure for Real-Time Signal Control That Considers Transit Interference and Priority. Transportation Research, Vol.28B, No.4, 1999. pp. 315~331
[5] Meenakshy Vasudevan, Gang-Len Chang. Design Framework for Integrating Real-Time Bus Priority Control with Robust Arterial Signal Progression [J]. Transportation Research Board 80th Annual Meeting Washington, D.C., 2001
[6] Jinwoo Lee, Amer Shalaby. Advanced Transit Signal Priority Control Using On-line Microsimulation-based Transit Prediction Model [J]. TRB Annual Meeting CD-ROM, 2005
[7]杨新苗等.基于准时信息的公交调度优化系统[J].交通与计算机,2000年第5期
[8]关伟,申金升等.公交优先的信号控制策略研究[J].系统工程学报,2001,16 (3)
[9]柳祖鹏,丁卫东,朱晓宏.交叉口公交优先信号控制系统研究[J].武汉科技大学学报(自然科学版),2005,28 (1).
[10]张明哲,姚冬苹,翟志强.公交优先中的车辆选择检测系统研究[J].城市公共交通,2004年第1期
[11] Hongchao Liu,Alexander Skabardonis,Meng Li. Optimal Detector Location for Bus Signal Priority [C]. Transportation Research Board 83rd Annual Meeting,Washington, D.C. January 2004
[12]马万经等.一种公交信息采集和信息传输的方法及其实现系统:中国,200610030859.2[P].2006-10-03
[13]沈华.GPS技术在公交车上的应用[J].安徽电子信息职业技术学院学报,2006,(35):285-286
[14]邵健,李彦明,苗玉彬,刘成良.智能公交系统中的信息采集与处理技术[J].计算机工程,2008,34(12):274-276
[15]胡金星,刘允才.公交信息智能化管理系统框架及关键技术研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2005,5(4):13-16
[16] Wei-Hua Lin,Jian Zeng.An experimental study on real time next bus arrival time prediction with GPS data[C].Transportation Research Board 78th Annual Meeting,Washington,1999
[17] Turner, S. M., ITS Data Archiving: Case Study Analysis of San Antonio TRANSGUIDE Data, Report FHWA-PL-99-024, Texas Transportation Institute, 1999.
[18]周雪梅,杨晓光,王磊.公交车辆行程时间预测方法研究[J].交通与计算机,2002,20(6)
[19] Frechette,L.A. Bayesian Regression-Based Urban Traffic Models[J].Transportation Research Record 1644,Transportation Research Board,1998
[20] Abdelfattah,A, Khan,A.M. Models for predicting Bus Delays, Transportation Research Rocord 1623. Transportation Research Board,1998
[21] Patnaik, J., Chien, S, et al. Estimation of Bus Arrival Times Using APC data. Journal of Public Transportation. Volume7, November 1, 2004.
[22] Ding, Y., Chien, I. J. Dynamic Bus Arrival Time Prediction with Artificial Neural Networks. Journal of Transportation Engineering. Volume 128, Issue 5, pp.429-438, 2002.
[23] Jeong, R., and L. R. Rilett. Bus Arrival Time Prediction Using Artificial Neural Network Model. Proc., IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference, Washington, D.C., 2004, pp. 988–993.
[24]周文霞,徐建闽,刘正东.基于卡尔曼滤波算法的公交车辆行程时间预测[J].交通标准化.162(2/3),2007.
[25] Daily,D.J, Wall,Z.R. An algorithm and implementation to predict the arrival of transit vehicles[J].Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference Proceedings, Michigan, EEE, p.161-166,2000
[26] Shalaby,A., Farhan. Bus Travel Time Prediction Model for Dynamic Operations Control and Passenger Information Systems. Transportation Research Rocord. 82nd Annual Meeting, Washington D.C., 2003
[27] A Shalaby, A Farhan. Prediction model of bus arrival and departure times using AVL and APC data[J].Journal of Public Transportation, 2004
[28]李湘江,彭建.基于VB的实时数据采集程序设计[J].微计算机信息,2003,19(10):38-40
[29]刘红红,王鑫钥,杨兆升.城市公共交通优先的信号控制策略[J].公路交通科技,2004,Vol.21,No.5,121~124.
[30]季彦婕.交叉口公共交通优先通行方法研究[D]: [硕士学位论文]南京:东南大学,2003.
[31] DerHorng Lee,Wei Huang. A new method for multi-level bus prioritization at signalized intersections[A]. In the 84th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, 2004.
[32] Meng Li,Yafeng Yin,Hongchao Liu,Chin-Woo. Tan .Adaptive transit signal priority on actuated signalized corridors[A].In the 85th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, 2005.
[33]李胜乐译..MapInfo地理信息系统二次开发实例[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2004
[34]赵明生,李爱梅.基于MapInfo的GIS系统开发[J].福建电脑,2004(1)
[35]张娟,程绍文.基于VB与MaPinfo的电子地图实现[J].中国西部科技,2006(35):20-22
[36]张成才,孙喜梅,黄建红,潘存昕.基于MAPINFO电子地图制作方法研究[J].水土保持研究,2002,9(4):145-147
[37]三味工作室.MapInfo 6_0应用开发指南[D].北京:人民邮电出版社,2001
[38]姜玉林,杨保海.利用VB6_0处理GPS数据[J].九江学院学报(自然科学版),2005(4):7-10
[39]向先波,徐国华.Matlab环境下PC机与单片机的串行通信及数据处理[J].技术纵横,2004(12):27-31
[40]张立材.基于Matlab环境的串行数据通信[J].微计算机信息,2004(3)
[41]张其善,吴今培,杨东凯.智能车辆定位导航系统及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2002
[42]徐爱功,刘经南,王宏伟.车辆导航定位中地图匹配的MP模型[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报.2000,19(5):20-24
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