农产品“农超对接”模式发展的机理与政策研究
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摘要
本文以突破“农超对接”的“发展门槛”及消除发展的相关障碍性因素为目标,以“农超对接”模式发展的基本模式“农户+农民专业合作社+超市”模式为依托,展开“农超对接”模式发展、运行的机理和初级阶段发展思路研究。以基本理论问题界定分析为基础,通过博弈论方法和系统动力学建模方法,重点抓住不同条件下对接模式利益主体的博弈规律、对接模式系统内外影响因素运行规律研究,揭示“农超对接”模式的发展机理、系统运行机理,寻找理论上推动对接模式稳定发展的切入点与方向；反思发展实践中的门槛障碍与相关阻碍因素的深层原因、直接原因,从内部系统、外部系统优化的视角提出问题的破解思路与“农超对接”模式初级阶段发展思路和政策安排建议。
一.研究的内容
1.“农超对接”模式发展的理论分析。主要对“农超对接”模式的定义、要素、特点、系统及其构成、对接方式等进行系统分析,并针对“农超对接”模式功能、实现条件、实现机制等进行深入研究,为发展机理、系统运行机理研究等作理论准备。
2.“农超对接”模式发展的机理研究。对“农超对接”模式的形成与发展作理论解释,并深入开展超市主导下超市与合作社在不完全信息下的静态博弈、动态博弈研究,以及对基于利益分配的合作社发展机理进行剖析。
3.“农超对接”模式系统运行分析。通过系统动力学流率基本入树建模法,生成合作社成长基模、超市利益增长基模与系统整合发展基模,根据因果循环关系链对“农超对接”模式系统进行运行机理研究,寻找对接模式系统的发展规律与发展方向。
4.“农超对接”模式的发展变迁与反思。从实践发展的视角切入,分析“农超对接”模式的发展背景、起因、变迁；揭示发展初级阶段“农超对接”模式的“发展门槛”效应,调查研究实践中的主要阻碍因素；对产生“发展门槛”与阻碍因素的深层原因、直接原因进行反思；提出“发展门槛”破解及解决其它阻碍因素的系统内外部解决思路。
5.“农超对接”模式的发展政策研究。基于政府发展政策支持体系构成、“农超对接”模式发展目标及发展政策的着眼点研究,从农民专业合作社发展、超市连锁企业“农超对接”业务发展、介入对接供应链的专业服务外包企业发展,以及“农超对接”发展支持体系建设等方面,提出了“农超对接”模式发展政策制定的方向和建议。
二.研究的主要结论
1.“农超对接”模式的发展需要特定的实现条件,需要市场实现机制发挥基础作用,政府引导调控机制发挥扶持、促进和规范作用。“农超对接”发展,固然是双方的意愿、政府的推动所致,但实现对接发展必须满足特定的实现条件,即组织性、互补性、耦合性和效益性。组织性是对接的基础条件,它既要求农户与合作社具有相应的组织性,还要求超市与对接系统具有较好的组织性；互补性是对接的诱导性条件,即合作双方各自能获得需要的利益,存在资源互补性；耦合性是对接的操作性条件,即对接双方合作规则、合作秩序的联系的紧密性、匹配性；效益性是对接的实现动力性条件,即对接双方能实现直接的效益和间接的社会效益。同时,开展“农超对接”还需要发挥市场实现机制的主导作用,政府引导调控机制的推动扶持、促进与规范作用。供求机制、价格机制、竞争机制、风险机制等市场实现机制的作用,具体地需要通过体现对接体内部性的以价格为基础的主体利益分配与调节机制、成本管理与分担机制、风险管理与分担机制、系统整合发展机制、动态均衡发展机制来实现。而治理市场失灵和发展不成熟,需要政府引导调控机制的作用来实现。政府引导调控机制是为了应对市场失效而履行经济、社会与政治职能,采用财政、税收、货币金融、市场规制等等手段,对“农超对接”中市场机制无法发挥作用的领域进行引导、促进、扶持、规范的调控机制。
2.“农超对接”模式的成立与稳定发展主要是基于合作社介入,农超双方博弈的结果是契约稳定性得到提高,长期利益空间增大。基于“农户+合作社+超市”的“农超对接”基本模式,以利益为根本点,农户与超市直接对接,无论农户还是超市都存在违约风险,维权成本高,合作不成立；而加入合作社后,双方无论是基于短期利益还是长期利益博弈,均可规避风险,实现纳什均衡,对接合作可以成立,且合作社与农户的合作的稳定性也得到提高。从不完全信息下超市与合作社静态博弈来看,双方对接合作后,合作社收益空间更大,尽管超市由于合作初期必要的投入使成本上升、毛利下降,但长期合作带来的稳定的规模效益会大大增加,加之政府的补助,双方的利益可以得到保障,合作关系会更加稳定；从不完全信息下双方动态博弈来看,合作社与超市间基于长期利益考量,不会轻易违约；合作社如果有超市的支持、政府的补助,农超合作关系会更加稳定；就合作社内部成员利益分配视角来看,合作收益大于独自经营收益,合作实现了双赢。整体上看,“农超对接”模式理论上可以实现农户、合作社、超市的多赢,但合作发展的初级阶段,政府有一定的补助,超市对合作社有一定的支持,更有利于度过初期的困难,达到长期的合作的稳定发展状态。
3.“农超对接”模式系统运行研究表明,内部因素、外部因素相互影响形成因果循环关系链,影响的方向与属性制约着系统的良性发展。就合作社成长基模、超市收益增长基模及系统整合运行发展基模因果循环关系链运行方向与属性米看,在无超市与政府补助下,只有市场交易成本E1(t)直接负向影响合作社农户数L1(t)、罚金标准L16(t)和合作社农户数量L1(t),自然风险E2(t)直接负向影响生产条件L4(t)、农产品质量达标合格率L11(t)；个体农户农产品增值额E10(t)作为合作社农产品增值额L6(t)的外部参照系,直接负向影响农产品增值差额L7(t)；单次检测成本E5(t)既直接负向影响检测频率,又直接正向影响检测成本,进而负向影响超市收益L18(t)。其它均为正向影响关系。可见,制约合作成长的因素主要是交易成本、自然风险、合作体外个体农户增值额。自然风险难以预计,需要农业保险与政府补贴；个体农户增值额前述已经证明,加入合作体收益会更多,可以淡化；问题还是在于如何降低交易成本。在有超市与政府补助下,系统运行表明,政府补助分别作用于合作社生产条件改善,或补助直接拨付合作社,提高收益,保护了合作社种植积极性。超市对合作社的补助,使合作社收益增加,生产条件改善,合作社农产品增值额增加,产量增加,合作社产品质量达标率上升,合作社生产关系更为稳定,合作社成长环境更加有利。只要政府对超市的补助效益大于等于超市对合作社的补助支出,超市的原有收益就会保持稳定,超市就有意愿、有能力持续的对参与“农超对接”模式的合作社补助,提高合作社的生产、运营等能力。超市对合作社补助下,生产条件改善,合作社产品质量上升,检测成本下降,超市收益也会增加,可以弥补补助的付出。
4.“农超对接”发展处于初级阶段,存在“发展门槛”问题与其它阻碍因素,破解“发展门槛”和削弱其它阻碍因素的关键是解决对接模式系统内外部发展优化问题。“农超对接”模式发展变迁分析表明,“农超对接”处于发展的初级阶段,存在农户与合作社组织化程度低、对接难的“发展门槛”和涉及到合作社、超市、政府政策等其它方面的发展阻碍因素问题。“发展门槛”和其它阻碍因素的存在,或形成发展瓶颈,对接的成本反而更高,把部分农户与合作社挡在超市之外,或制约对接模式的顺利发展。造成“发展门槛”和其它阻碍因素的深层原因是“二元结构”下城乡生产力发展不平衡、小生产与大流通、市场主体间企业制度、重组供应链与传统供应链等方面的矛盾所致,直接原因是发展初级阶段对接成本增加、业务经营规则耦合性差、政府政策科学性与平衡性不够等造成的。破解“发展门槛”的关键是提高农户与合作社的组织化程度,彻底解决卖方的失位问题。其它阻碍因素的解决思路一是以合作社、超市及参与对接的服务外包企业自我发展为基础,以市场调节与实现机制为基本的市场竞争与资源配置的方式,实现“农超对接”模式系统内部良性发展；二是以政府引导调控机制为外部推力,以参与对接模式的合作社与企业为发展依托和市场行为规范的主体,逐步形成“农超对接”模式系统外部优化发展格局。
5.在“农超对接”模式发展不充分、不平衡,市场作用机制短期失效阶段,政府需要扮演推动、扶持、规范者的角色,不断优化已有政策,提出新的政策体系和新的政策切入点,催化“农超对接”模式的发展成熟。基于发展初级阶段市场失效下对接双方存在的发展中问题,若要加速“农超对接”模式发展,必须认识到政府原有的政策体系已不完全适应新的要求,必须尽快针对发展中的新问题,区分国家和地方政府两个层次,既统筹、又区别职能地制定多样化、动态性、规范化的政策体系,区分地区、主体类型、发展状况、规模等,形成针对性、适应性强的政策促进格局,治理市场失效,从农民专业合作社内部发展、超市连锁企业“农超对接”业务发展、介入“农超对接”供应链的专业服务外包企业发展,以及“农超对接”发展的支持体系建设等方面切入,研究分析政府发展政策支持体系的新构成、“农超对接”模式发展目标及发展政策的着眼点,制定农民专业合作社发展、引导多元投资主体进入合作社、合作社向供应链下游发展等推动合作社自我发展的引导、推动政策,设计超市扩大“农超对接”业务、专业服务外包企业发展的引导、促进政策,完善和创新农产品质量认证与标准化、市场行为规范、公共信息平台构建、人才培养支持等“农超对接”模式支持体系建设促进政策。通过发展政策支持体系、具体政策的升级换代,全面提高发展政策体系的科学性、针对性和有效性,破解“农超对接”模式的“发展门槛”效应,削弱相关的发展阻碍因素,催化“农超对接”模式逐步走向成熟。
三.可能的创新点
1.以契约稳定性为依托,以长期利益为发展目标,研究“农超对接”模式发展的机理。以往研究“农超对接”发展大多以价格、交易成本为对象展开分析,本文从“农超对接”基础模式“农户+合作社十超市”模式切入,以参与合作各方间契约的稳定性作为衡量合作与否的依托点,以长期合作利益为目标,开展合作主体间完全信息下、不完全信息下的静态、动态博弈分析,研究“农超对接”模式生成机理、发展机理,及发展初期在有无外部补助下的发展状态差别。在研究设计上做了新的尝试。
2.运用系统动力学流率基本入树建模法,从内部、外部因素两个维度研究“农超对接”模式系统运行机理。为了更贴切地研究内部因素、外部因素对“农超对接”模式运行系统的影响,进而分析其发展运行的规律,采用系统动力学流率基本入树建模方法,建立合作社成长基模、超市收益增长基模及系统整合发展基模,并就其因果反馈结构、反馈链关系及运行展开分析,得出系统运行发展的结论。把系统动力学流率基本入树建模方法运用于“农超对接”模式系统运行分析尚属少见。
3.提出发展初级阶段,破解“发展门槛”与相关阻碍因素的“农超对接”模式内部系统、外部系统优化发展思路。“农超对接”模式在发展初期还存在诸多的障碍,最突出的是农超双方对接的“发展门槛”制约,还有其它相关阻碍因素。笔者通过“农超对接”发展变迁研究分析,反思了影响发展的深层原因与直接原因,提出了“发展门槛”破解及解决其它阻碍因素的“农超对接”模式内部系统、外部系统优化发展思路,为提出新的政策体系和发展政策切入点提供了重要参考。
In this paper, in order to resolve the development threshold and relevant obstacle factors of "Agricultural Super-Docking",we make a study of the basic pattern of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode which is name as "Farmers+Farmer Cooperatives+Supermarket",and do a Research on development mode and operation mechanism and initial development ideas of "Agricultural Super-Docking ".Base on analysis of the basic theoretical issues, we use game theory and system dynamics modeling approach to focus on the game rules of stakeholders under different conditions, internal and external system factors of operating rules,to reveal the development mechanism and system operation mechanism of "agriculture super-docking " mode, to find an entry point and the direction in theory which is used to promote the stable development of the docking mode; to reflect on the underlying causes and the direct causes of the development threshold and relevant obstacle factors; to propose development ideas and policies which are used to resolve the problems of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode early stages from the perspective of internal and external systems optimization.
One. Content of the study
1.The basic theoretical research of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode of development
We mainly do the system analysis of definition, elements, characteristics, the system components and docking pattern of the "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, and make a in-depth study of function, realization condition and realization mechanism on "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, in order to prepare for theoretical study of development mechanism and system operation mechanism, etc..
2.Development mechanism of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode
We make theoretical explanation on formation and development of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode,and do the in-depth analysis of static games of incomplete Information and dynamic games of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode which are dominant of supermarket, development mechanism based on distribution of benefits about the cooperative.
3. Research of operation mechanism on "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode of the system
We use basic flow rate through the system dynamics modeling approach into the trees to generate grow archetypes of the cooperative., growth benefits archetypes of supermarket and system integration development archetypes. According to the chain of causation, we make a study of system operation mechanism on "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, and find development rules and development direction growth of the docking mode.
4. Historical changes and reflection of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode
From the angle of practice development, we do the analysis of development background, causes and changes on "agriculture super-docking" mode; we reveal development threshold effect of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode "which has been in the initial stage of development, and reveal the main impediments in research practice; we reflect on the underlying causes and direct causes of the development threshold and main impediments,and propose solution ideas to solve the development threshold and main impediments from the angle of internal and external system
5. Development Policy research of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode
From the angle of study emphasis based on the constitutes of develop policy support system about government, development goals and development policies of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, we propose development directions and recommendations on policy of the "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, which include development of the cooperative, chain business development of supermarket in "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, development of professional service outsourcing enterprises which are involved in the docking supply chain, as well as support system construction on development of "Agricultural Super-Docking", etc. Two. The main conclusions of the study
1. Development of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode requires specific conditions for the realization, it need the market mechanisms to play a fundamental role and government-led regulatory mechanisms to have the function of promotion and regulation. The development of "agricultural Super-Docking", it is of course a result which is attributed to the willingness of both sides and the push factors of government, but the development of "agricultural Super-Docking" must meet certain realization conditions which contain organization, complementary coupling and effectiveness.Organization is the basic condition. The organization not only requests farmers and cooperative of the docking which have corresponding requirements of the organization, but also it requests the supermarket and docking system which have a better common organization complementarity is butt-induced condition in the docking, that is a station that both partners can get their cooperation needed interests and their resource is complementary; coupling is operant conditioning, that is tightness of cooperation rules and cooperation order, and matching effectiveness is the implementary impetus of docking condition, it means that both sides can achieve direct benefits and indirect benefits. At the same time, implementation of the " Agricultural Super-Docking" also need to realize the market mechanism which play a leading role in society, have a guide regulatory mechanisms of government which is support to promote and regulate the implementation.The action of achieve the mechanism of supply and demand mechanism, price mechanism, the mechanism of competition, risks and other market mechanisms, specifically, they have the realization of the specific form which contain price-based benefit distribution and regulatory mechanisms, management and cost-sharing mechanisms, risk management and sharing mechanisms, systems integration development mechanism, dynamic balanced achieve mechanisms. But the market failures and immature development needed to guide regulatory mechanisms which are form government action. Government guidance regulatory mechanism are used to solve market failure and fulfill economic, social and political functions. the use of finance, taxation, monetary and financial, market regulation and so on means, are aimed at recovery about the defect of market mechanisms in " Agricultural Super-Docking".
2. Established and stable development of the "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode is mainly based on cooperative intervention, the results of both agricultural super-game contract stability is improved, the long-term interests of the space increases. Based on the " Farmers+Cooperatives+Supermarket " and " Agricultural Super-Docking" basic mode, we consider interest as the fundamental point to study, and find some conclusions:In "farmers+supermarkets" direct docking mode, whether farmers or supermarket that there are apt to giving rise to default risk, high cost of rights protection, consequencely,their cooperation is not established; however, while the cooperatives join the "farmers+supermarkets" direct docking mode, Whether the Cooperatives and Supermarket both can avoid the risk and realize Nash equilibrium in the game of short-term interests and long-term interests, consequencely,their cooperation is established,and the stability of cooperatives and cooperative farmers is also improved. From the angle of the cooperatives and supermarket on static games of incomplete information, the interests of the cooperatives have been improved after docking cooperation, even though the supermarket gross margin declined and costs raise due to increasing necessary investment in initial cooperation, but economies of scale will greatly increased in the long-term, coupled with government subsidies, the interests of both can be protected effectively, the cooperative relations of both will be more stable; From the angle of the cooperatives and supermarket on dynamic games of incomplete information, it is hard for they to give rise to default risk in the long-term interest; if the cooperatives can gain subsidies from supermarket and government,the cooperative relations in "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode will be more stable; From the angle of the distribution of benefits on members of cooperatives, the cooperation income can be gain greater than Independent operating income.Overall, from the perspective of theoretical analysis, farmers, cooperatives, supermarkets can achieve win-win in the " Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, but if the cooperatives can gain subsidies from supermarket and government in the initially cooperative stage, it will be beneficial to work out initial difficulties, consequencely, the cooperative relations will be more stable in the long term.
3. Operation of the "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode system is shows that internal factors, and external factors influence each other to form the chain of causation, affected direction and property restrict the healthy development of the system. based on the running of grow archetypes of the cooperative, growth benefits archetypes of supermarket,system integration development archetypes and the chains of causation, we can gain some conclusions:in the absence of supermarkets and government subsidies, only the market transaction costs El(t) has a direct negative impact on cooperatives households, L1(t), fine standard L16(t) and the number of cooperatives L1(t); natural risks E2(t) has a direct negative impact on the production conditions L4(t), the passing rate of agricultural quality standards L11(t); individual farmers to produce value added E10(t) is as a value-added agricultural cooperatives L6(t) of the external frame of reference, has a direct negative impact on agricultural value added difference L7(t);single testing costs E5(t) has direct negative a impact on the detection frequency, and has a direct positive impact testing costs, thereby have a negative impact on the supermarket income L13(t). Others are positive influence factors. Therefore, the main restricting factors in grow archetypes of the cooperative contain transaction costs, natural risks, value-added co-vitro individual farmers.it is difficult to predict natural risks, therefore, agricultural insurance and government subsidies must be generated to solve the problem; added value of individual farmers have been proved, if farmers join in the cooperatives, they will be gain more cooperative income. The key question still is how to reduce transaction costs. If both supermarkets and government can provide subsidies, the system operation shows that the role of government subsidies can improve production conditions of the cooperatives, or government subsidies directly increase income of the cooperatives, so, government subsidies can improve profitability and protect cooperatives planting initiative to the cooperatives. Supermarket subsidies can increase revenue of cooperatives, improve production conditions, increase value-added agricultural of cooperatives, increase production, rose the rate of product quality on cooperatives, stabilize cooperative relations, be beneficial to growth environment. As long as government subsidies to cooperatives can be more greater than or equal to the supermarket subsidies to cooperatives, the original income of supermarket will remain stable,the supermarkets will be willing and have the ability to continue to supply supermarket subsidies to cooperatives, continue to improve production, operations and other capabilities. meanwhile, super-market subsidies have other Benefits which include improvement of production conditions, improvement of production quality, decreasing testing cost, increasing income of supermarket,are can remedy the pressure of supermarket subsidies.
4."Agricultural Super-Docking" is in the early stages of development, it have the "development threshold" issues and other impediments,the key to crack the "development threshold" and weaken other impediments is to solve the problem of optimization of internal and external development of the docking mode.The analysis of development and changes to" Agricultural Super-Docking" mode shows that the " Agricultural Super-Docking" is in the early stages of development. There are low degree organization of farmers and cooperatives, hard "development threshold" and other obstacle factors which are involved in cooperatives, supermarkets, government policies, etc." Development threshold" and other impediments are generated bottleneck or improve the cost of docking, therefore, the problems can be caused to the phenomenon that the part of the farmers and cooperatives will be blocked in the supermarket or be constricted its development.The underlying reasons of development threshold" and obstructive factors are caused by unbalanced urban and rural development which are under "dual structure" contradictory productivity, the Contradictions which are form small-scale production with the largest circulation among market players enterprise system, restructuring the supply chain and other aspects. The direct cause contain the increasing costs which are constricted to initial development stage of docking, poor business rule in coupling, unscientific government policies, unbalance, cet. The key solutions of development threshold" contain improvement the degree of organization of farmers and cooperatives, solution of absence to seller. Other obstructive factors have been solved by two methods. First, cooperatives, supermarkets and service outsourcing enterprises involved in docking need select the way that implementation of the basically competitive mechanisms of market and self-development must be considered as the basis market regulation and the allocation of resources,in order to achieve internal positive cycle in "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode; Second, we must build a mechanisms that contain the regulatory mechanism for the government which can form a positive impact in Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, and a market that cooperatives and enterprises rely on norms of behavior, therefore, the optimizing in outside the system of" Agricultural Super-Docking" mode will be promoted gradually.
5. At the stage of insufficient, unbalanced, short-term failure market mechanism of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, the government needs to play a role of promotion, support and regulation, constantly optimize existing policies, propose new policies and new policy entry points system, so as to mature the "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode. Based on existing problems of development in initial stage of market failure, if we want to accelerate the development of " Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, we must recognize that the existing government policy system doesn't has been adapted to the new requirements, and we must as soon as possible to solve new question of development.,the methods is that we should make a distinction between national and local government on two levels and overall consider the differences the functions, dynamic, standardized policy system, regions, the main type of development, scale, form targeted, on this basis, we carry out reasonable and adaptable supporting policies to promote the development pattern, to solve governance market failure. In addition, From the angle of internal development from farmer cooperatives, supermarket chain in " Agricultural Super-Docking", professional services outsourcing business development in" Agricultural Super-Docking" supply chain and development system and other aspects in " Agricultural Super-Docking", we do the analysis of the new government development policy research, supporting system constitutes and development objectives of " Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, focus of development policy, the development of the cooperatives, guided multiple investors into cooperatives and cooperative downstream to the supply chain, in order to promote the development and self-development of cooperatives, promote policies designed to expand the supermarket business in" Agricultural Super-Docking", promote development of professional service outsourcing enterprises, improve and innovate quality certification and standardization of agricultural products, Make market conduct specification, build public information Platform, support personnel training, etc. All in all, we advice that the development of policy support system, upgrading of specific policies, improvement of the science and relevance and effectiveness of development policy system in " Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, to solve the "development threshold" effect " in " Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, weaken impediments related development, catalysis " Agricultural Super-Docking " mode transformation to matured mode gradually.
Three. Possible innovation
1. The mechanism research of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode of development is on the basis of contract, stability and the goal of long-term benefits.The previous studies of development in "Agricultural Super-Docking" mostly focus on transaction costs and price, this paper select a specific aspect that focus on the " Farmers+Farmer Cooperatives+Supermarket " mode in "Agricultural Super-Docking" base mode, The study begins with the measure whether the cooperation continue for a long term is depended on the stability of contract, meanwhile, in order to achieve goals that we aim at pursuing the interests of long-term, we do some analysis of forming mechanism, development mechanism and the difference of the condition which has no allowance or allowance from external system, in the different situations which contain static games of complete information, dynamic games of complete information, static games of incomplete information, dynamic games of incomplete information. In addition, it took a new try in study design on this paper.
2. The basic system dynamics flow rate into the tree modeling method to study the mechanism of operation,"Agricultural Super-Docking" mode systems from internal and external factors that two dimensions. In order to study the impact more closely how the internal and external factors take effect on the "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, and do a further analysis of development mechanism and operation mechanism, we use the modeling approach of "System dynamics basic flow rate into the tree" to build three archetypes,such as grow archetypes of the cooperative, growth benefits archetypes of supermarket,system integration development archetypes.Furthermore, we do in-depth analysis of the three archetypes and its causal structure and its causal chain, so as to recognize the rule of the system on "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode. Of course, it is still rare for any researcher to use the modeling approach of "System dynamics basic flow rate into the tree" in the analysis of development mechanism and operation mechanism on 'Agricultural Super-Docking" mode.
3.Proposed the ideas of development of an early stage, to solve the problem of "development threshold",weaken related impediments of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, and optimization of internal and external sys-tem. There are lots of constraint factors,especially such as "development threshold" constraints and obstructive factors, in the early development stage of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mo-de. Author in this paper do a in-depth analysis of the Change of "Agricultural Super-Docking",and reflect on the underlying causes and the direct causes of the development threshold and relevant obstacle factors, and propose optimization ideas which are used to resol-ve development threshold constraints and obstructive factors in the "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode from internal and external systems. Meanwhile, the optimization ideas and analysis in this paper can be considered as significant referents to new policy system and development policy.
一.研究的内容
1.“农超对接”模式发展的理论分析。主要对“农超对接”模式的定义、要素、特点、系统及其构成、对接方式等进行系统分析,并针对“农超对接”模式功能、实现条件、实现机制等进行深入研究,为发展机理、系统运行机理研究等作理论准备。
2.“农超对接”模式发展的机理研究。对“农超对接”模式的形成与发展作理论解释,并深入开展超市主导下超市与合作社在不完全信息下的静态博弈、动态博弈研究,以及对基于利益分配的合作社发展机理进行剖析。
3.“农超对接”模式系统运行分析。通过系统动力学流率基本入树建模法,生成合作社成长基模、超市利益增长基模与系统整合发展基模,根据因果循环关系链对“农超对接”模式系统进行运行机理研究,寻找对接模式系统的发展规律与发展方向。
4.“农超对接”模式的发展变迁与反思。从实践发展的视角切入,分析“农超对接”模式的发展背景、起因、变迁；揭示发展初级阶段“农超对接”模式的“发展门槛”效应,调查研究实践中的主要阻碍因素；对产生“发展门槛”与阻碍因素的深层原因、直接原因进行反思；提出“发展门槛”破解及解决其它阻碍因素的系统内外部解决思路。
5.“农超对接”模式的发展政策研究。基于政府发展政策支持体系构成、“农超对接”模式发展目标及发展政策的着眼点研究,从农民专业合作社发展、超市连锁企业“农超对接”业务发展、介入对接供应链的专业服务外包企业发展,以及“农超对接”发展支持体系建设等方面,提出了“农超对接”模式发展政策制定的方向和建议。
二.研究的主要结论
1.“农超对接”模式的发展需要特定的实现条件,需要市场实现机制发挥基础作用,政府引导调控机制发挥扶持、促进和规范作用。“农超对接”发展,固然是双方的意愿、政府的推动所致,但实现对接发展必须满足特定的实现条件,即组织性、互补性、耦合性和效益性。组织性是对接的基础条件,它既要求农户与合作社具有相应的组织性,还要求超市与对接系统具有较好的组织性；互补性是对接的诱导性条件,即合作双方各自能获得需要的利益,存在资源互补性；耦合性是对接的操作性条件,即对接双方合作规则、合作秩序的联系的紧密性、匹配性；效益性是对接的实现动力性条件,即对接双方能实现直接的效益和间接的社会效益。同时,开展“农超对接”还需要发挥市场实现机制的主导作用,政府引导调控机制的推动扶持、促进与规范作用。供求机制、价格机制、竞争机制、风险机制等市场实现机制的作用,具体地需要通过体现对接体内部性的以价格为基础的主体利益分配与调节机制、成本管理与分担机制、风险管理与分担机制、系统整合发展机制、动态均衡发展机制来实现。而治理市场失灵和发展不成熟,需要政府引导调控机制的作用来实现。政府引导调控机制是为了应对市场失效而履行经济、社会与政治职能,采用财政、税收、货币金融、市场规制等等手段,对“农超对接”中市场机制无法发挥作用的领域进行引导、促进、扶持、规范的调控机制。
2.“农超对接”模式的成立与稳定发展主要是基于合作社介入,农超双方博弈的结果是契约稳定性得到提高,长期利益空间增大。基于“农户+合作社+超市”的“农超对接”基本模式,以利益为根本点,农户与超市直接对接,无论农户还是超市都存在违约风险,维权成本高,合作不成立；而加入合作社后,双方无论是基于短期利益还是长期利益博弈,均可规避风险,实现纳什均衡,对接合作可以成立,且合作社与农户的合作的稳定性也得到提高。从不完全信息下超市与合作社静态博弈来看,双方对接合作后,合作社收益空间更大,尽管超市由于合作初期必要的投入使成本上升、毛利下降,但长期合作带来的稳定的规模效益会大大增加,加之政府的补助,双方的利益可以得到保障,合作关系会更加稳定；从不完全信息下双方动态博弈来看,合作社与超市间基于长期利益考量,不会轻易违约；合作社如果有超市的支持、政府的补助,农超合作关系会更加稳定；就合作社内部成员利益分配视角来看,合作收益大于独自经营收益,合作实现了双赢。整体上看,“农超对接”模式理论上可以实现农户、合作社、超市的多赢,但合作发展的初级阶段,政府有一定的补助,超市对合作社有一定的支持,更有利于度过初期的困难,达到长期的合作的稳定发展状态。
3.“农超对接”模式系统运行研究表明,内部因素、外部因素相互影响形成因果循环关系链,影响的方向与属性制约着系统的良性发展。就合作社成长基模、超市收益增长基模及系统整合运行发展基模因果循环关系链运行方向与属性米看,在无超市与政府补助下,只有市场交易成本E1(t)直接负向影响合作社农户数L1(t)、罚金标准L16(t)和合作社农户数量L1(t),自然风险E2(t)直接负向影响生产条件L4(t)、农产品质量达标合格率L11(t)；个体农户农产品增值额E10(t)作为合作社农产品增值额L6(t)的外部参照系,直接负向影响农产品增值差额L7(t)；单次检测成本E5(t)既直接负向影响检测频率,又直接正向影响检测成本,进而负向影响超市收益L18(t)。其它均为正向影响关系。可见,制约合作成长的因素主要是交易成本、自然风险、合作体外个体农户增值额。自然风险难以预计,需要农业保险与政府补贴；个体农户增值额前述已经证明,加入合作体收益会更多,可以淡化；问题还是在于如何降低交易成本。在有超市与政府补助下,系统运行表明,政府补助分别作用于合作社生产条件改善,或补助直接拨付合作社,提高收益,保护了合作社种植积极性。超市对合作社的补助,使合作社收益增加,生产条件改善,合作社农产品增值额增加,产量增加,合作社产品质量达标率上升,合作社生产关系更为稳定,合作社成长环境更加有利。只要政府对超市的补助效益大于等于超市对合作社的补助支出,超市的原有收益就会保持稳定,超市就有意愿、有能力持续的对参与“农超对接”模式的合作社补助,提高合作社的生产、运营等能力。超市对合作社补助下,生产条件改善,合作社产品质量上升,检测成本下降,超市收益也会增加,可以弥补补助的付出。
4.“农超对接”发展处于初级阶段,存在“发展门槛”问题与其它阻碍因素,破解“发展门槛”和削弱其它阻碍因素的关键是解决对接模式系统内外部发展优化问题。“农超对接”模式发展变迁分析表明,“农超对接”处于发展的初级阶段,存在农户与合作社组织化程度低、对接难的“发展门槛”和涉及到合作社、超市、政府政策等其它方面的发展阻碍因素问题。“发展门槛”和其它阻碍因素的存在,或形成发展瓶颈,对接的成本反而更高,把部分农户与合作社挡在超市之外,或制约对接模式的顺利发展。造成“发展门槛”和其它阻碍因素的深层原因是“二元结构”下城乡生产力发展不平衡、小生产与大流通、市场主体间企业制度、重组供应链与传统供应链等方面的矛盾所致,直接原因是发展初级阶段对接成本增加、业务经营规则耦合性差、政府政策科学性与平衡性不够等造成的。破解“发展门槛”的关键是提高农户与合作社的组织化程度,彻底解决卖方的失位问题。其它阻碍因素的解决思路一是以合作社、超市及参与对接的服务外包企业自我发展为基础,以市场调节与实现机制为基本的市场竞争与资源配置的方式,实现“农超对接”模式系统内部良性发展；二是以政府引导调控机制为外部推力,以参与对接模式的合作社与企业为发展依托和市场行为规范的主体,逐步形成“农超对接”模式系统外部优化发展格局。
5.在“农超对接”模式发展不充分、不平衡,市场作用机制短期失效阶段,政府需要扮演推动、扶持、规范者的角色,不断优化已有政策,提出新的政策体系和新的政策切入点,催化“农超对接”模式的发展成熟。基于发展初级阶段市场失效下对接双方存在的发展中问题,若要加速“农超对接”模式发展,必须认识到政府原有的政策体系已不完全适应新的要求,必须尽快针对发展中的新问题,区分国家和地方政府两个层次,既统筹、又区别职能地制定多样化、动态性、规范化的政策体系,区分地区、主体类型、发展状况、规模等,形成针对性、适应性强的政策促进格局,治理市场失效,从农民专业合作社内部发展、超市连锁企业“农超对接”业务发展、介入“农超对接”供应链的专业服务外包企业发展,以及“农超对接”发展的支持体系建设等方面切入,研究分析政府发展政策支持体系的新构成、“农超对接”模式发展目标及发展政策的着眼点,制定农民专业合作社发展、引导多元投资主体进入合作社、合作社向供应链下游发展等推动合作社自我发展的引导、推动政策,设计超市扩大“农超对接”业务、专业服务外包企业发展的引导、促进政策,完善和创新农产品质量认证与标准化、市场行为规范、公共信息平台构建、人才培养支持等“农超对接”模式支持体系建设促进政策。通过发展政策支持体系、具体政策的升级换代,全面提高发展政策体系的科学性、针对性和有效性,破解“农超对接”模式的“发展门槛”效应,削弱相关的发展阻碍因素,催化“农超对接”模式逐步走向成熟。
三.可能的创新点
1.以契约稳定性为依托,以长期利益为发展目标,研究“农超对接”模式发展的机理。以往研究“农超对接”发展大多以价格、交易成本为对象展开分析,本文从“农超对接”基础模式“农户+合作社十超市”模式切入,以参与合作各方间契约的稳定性作为衡量合作与否的依托点,以长期合作利益为目标,开展合作主体间完全信息下、不完全信息下的静态、动态博弈分析,研究“农超对接”模式生成机理、发展机理,及发展初期在有无外部补助下的发展状态差别。在研究设计上做了新的尝试。
2.运用系统动力学流率基本入树建模法,从内部、外部因素两个维度研究“农超对接”模式系统运行机理。为了更贴切地研究内部因素、外部因素对“农超对接”模式运行系统的影响,进而分析其发展运行的规律,采用系统动力学流率基本入树建模方法,建立合作社成长基模、超市收益增长基模及系统整合发展基模,并就其因果反馈结构、反馈链关系及运行展开分析,得出系统运行发展的结论。把系统动力学流率基本入树建模方法运用于“农超对接”模式系统运行分析尚属少见。
3.提出发展初级阶段,破解“发展门槛”与相关阻碍因素的“农超对接”模式内部系统、外部系统优化发展思路。“农超对接”模式在发展初期还存在诸多的障碍,最突出的是农超双方对接的“发展门槛”制约,还有其它相关阻碍因素。笔者通过“农超对接”发展变迁研究分析,反思了影响发展的深层原因与直接原因,提出了“发展门槛”破解及解决其它阻碍因素的“农超对接”模式内部系统、外部系统优化发展思路,为提出新的政策体系和发展政策切入点提供了重要参考。
In this paper, in order to resolve the development threshold and relevant obstacle factors of "Agricultural Super-Docking",we make a study of the basic pattern of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode which is name as "Farmers+Farmer Cooperatives+Supermarket",and do a Research on development mode and operation mechanism and initial development ideas of "Agricultural Super-Docking ".Base on analysis of the basic theoretical issues, we use game theory and system dynamics modeling approach to focus on the game rules of stakeholders under different conditions, internal and external system factors of operating rules,to reveal the development mechanism and system operation mechanism of "agriculture super-docking " mode, to find an entry point and the direction in theory which is used to promote the stable development of the docking mode; to reflect on the underlying causes and the direct causes of the development threshold and relevant obstacle factors; to propose development ideas and policies which are used to resolve the problems of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode early stages from the perspective of internal and external systems optimization.
One. Content of the study
1.The basic theoretical research of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode of development
We mainly do the system analysis of definition, elements, characteristics, the system components and docking pattern of the "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, and make a in-depth study of function, realization condition and realization mechanism on "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, in order to prepare for theoretical study of development mechanism and system operation mechanism, etc..
2.Development mechanism of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode
We make theoretical explanation on formation and development of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode,and do the in-depth analysis of static games of incomplete Information and dynamic games of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode which are dominant of supermarket, development mechanism based on distribution of benefits about the cooperative.
3. Research of operation mechanism on "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode of the system
We use basic flow rate through the system dynamics modeling approach into the trees to generate grow archetypes of the cooperative., growth benefits archetypes of supermarket and system integration development archetypes. According to the chain of causation, we make a study of system operation mechanism on "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, and find development rules and development direction growth of the docking mode.
4. Historical changes and reflection of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode
From the angle of practice development, we do the analysis of development background, causes and changes on "agriculture super-docking" mode; we reveal development threshold effect of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode "which has been in the initial stage of development, and reveal the main impediments in research practice; we reflect on the underlying causes and direct causes of the development threshold and main impediments,and propose solution ideas to solve the development threshold and main impediments from the angle of internal and external system
5. Development Policy research of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode
From the angle of study emphasis based on the constitutes of develop policy support system about government, development goals and development policies of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, we propose development directions and recommendations on policy of the "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, which include development of the cooperative, chain business development of supermarket in "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, development of professional service outsourcing enterprises which are involved in the docking supply chain, as well as support system construction on development of "Agricultural Super-Docking", etc. Two. The main conclusions of the study
1. Development of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode requires specific conditions for the realization, it need the market mechanisms to play a fundamental role and government-led regulatory mechanisms to have the function of promotion and regulation. The development of "agricultural Super-Docking", it is of course a result which is attributed to the willingness of both sides and the push factors of government, but the development of "agricultural Super-Docking" must meet certain realization conditions which contain organization, complementary coupling and effectiveness.Organization is the basic condition. The organization not only requests farmers and cooperative of the docking which have corresponding requirements of the organization, but also it requests the supermarket and docking system which have a better common organization complementarity is butt-induced condition in the docking, that is a station that both partners can get their cooperation needed interests and their resource is complementary; coupling is operant conditioning, that is tightness of cooperation rules and cooperation order, and matching effectiveness is the implementary impetus of docking condition, it means that both sides can achieve direct benefits and indirect benefits. At the same time, implementation of the " Agricultural Super-Docking" also need to realize the market mechanism which play a leading role in society, have a guide regulatory mechanisms of government which is support to promote and regulate the implementation.The action of achieve the mechanism of supply and demand mechanism, price mechanism, the mechanism of competition, risks and other market mechanisms, specifically, they have the realization of the specific form which contain price-based benefit distribution and regulatory mechanisms, management and cost-sharing mechanisms, risk management and sharing mechanisms, systems integration development mechanism, dynamic balanced achieve mechanisms. But the market failures and immature development needed to guide regulatory mechanisms which are form government action. Government guidance regulatory mechanism are used to solve market failure and fulfill economic, social and political functions. the use of finance, taxation, monetary and financial, market regulation and so on means, are aimed at recovery about the defect of market mechanisms in " Agricultural Super-Docking".
2. Established and stable development of the "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode is mainly based on cooperative intervention, the results of both agricultural super-game contract stability is improved, the long-term interests of the space increases. Based on the " Farmers+Cooperatives+Supermarket " and " Agricultural Super-Docking" basic mode, we consider interest as the fundamental point to study, and find some conclusions:In "farmers+supermarkets" direct docking mode, whether farmers or supermarket that there are apt to giving rise to default risk, high cost of rights protection, consequencely,their cooperation is not established; however, while the cooperatives join the "farmers+supermarkets" direct docking mode, Whether the Cooperatives and Supermarket both can avoid the risk and realize Nash equilibrium in the game of short-term interests and long-term interests, consequencely,their cooperation is established,and the stability of cooperatives and cooperative farmers is also improved. From the angle of the cooperatives and supermarket on static games of incomplete information, the interests of the cooperatives have been improved after docking cooperation, even though the supermarket gross margin declined and costs raise due to increasing necessary investment in initial cooperation, but economies of scale will greatly increased in the long-term, coupled with government subsidies, the interests of both can be protected effectively, the cooperative relations of both will be more stable; From the angle of the cooperatives and supermarket on dynamic games of incomplete information, it is hard for they to give rise to default risk in the long-term interest; if the cooperatives can gain subsidies from supermarket and government,the cooperative relations in "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode will be more stable; From the angle of the distribution of benefits on members of cooperatives, the cooperation income can be gain greater than Independent operating income.Overall, from the perspective of theoretical analysis, farmers, cooperatives, supermarkets can achieve win-win in the " Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, but if the cooperatives can gain subsidies from supermarket and government in the initially cooperative stage, it will be beneficial to work out initial difficulties, consequencely, the cooperative relations will be more stable in the long term.
3. Operation of the "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode system is shows that internal factors, and external factors influence each other to form the chain of causation, affected direction and property restrict the healthy development of the system. based on the running of grow archetypes of the cooperative, growth benefits archetypes of supermarket,system integration development archetypes and the chains of causation, we can gain some conclusions:in the absence of supermarkets and government subsidies, only the market transaction costs El(t) has a direct negative impact on cooperatives households, L1(t), fine standard L16(t) and the number of cooperatives L1(t); natural risks E2(t) has a direct negative impact on the production conditions L4(t), the passing rate of agricultural quality standards L11(t); individual farmers to produce value added E10(t) is as a value-added agricultural cooperatives L6(t) of the external frame of reference, has a direct negative impact on agricultural value added difference L7(t);single testing costs E5(t) has direct negative a impact on the detection frequency, and has a direct positive impact testing costs, thereby have a negative impact on the supermarket income L13(t). Others are positive influence factors. Therefore, the main restricting factors in grow archetypes of the cooperative contain transaction costs, natural risks, value-added co-vitro individual farmers.it is difficult to predict natural risks, therefore, agricultural insurance and government subsidies must be generated to solve the problem; added value of individual farmers have been proved, if farmers join in the cooperatives, they will be gain more cooperative income. The key question still is how to reduce transaction costs. If both supermarkets and government can provide subsidies, the system operation shows that the role of government subsidies can improve production conditions of the cooperatives, or government subsidies directly increase income of the cooperatives, so, government subsidies can improve profitability and protect cooperatives planting initiative to the cooperatives. Supermarket subsidies can increase revenue of cooperatives, improve production conditions, increase value-added agricultural of cooperatives, increase production, rose the rate of product quality on cooperatives, stabilize cooperative relations, be beneficial to growth environment. As long as government subsidies to cooperatives can be more greater than or equal to the supermarket subsidies to cooperatives, the original income of supermarket will remain stable,the supermarkets will be willing and have the ability to continue to supply supermarket subsidies to cooperatives, continue to improve production, operations and other capabilities. meanwhile, super-market subsidies have other Benefits which include improvement of production conditions, improvement of production quality, decreasing testing cost, increasing income of supermarket,are can remedy the pressure of supermarket subsidies.
4."Agricultural Super-Docking" is in the early stages of development, it have the "development threshold" issues and other impediments,the key to crack the "development threshold" and weaken other impediments is to solve the problem of optimization of internal and external development of the docking mode.The analysis of development and changes to" Agricultural Super-Docking" mode shows that the " Agricultural Super-Docking" is in the early stages of development. There are low degree organization of farmers and cooperatives, hard "development threshold" and other obstacle factors which are involved in cooperatives, supermarkets, government policies, etc." Development threshold" and other impediments are generated bottleneck or improve the cost of docking, therefore, the problems can be caused to the phenomenon that the part of the farmers and cooperatives will be blocked in the supermarket or be constricted its development.The underlying reasons of development threshold" and obstructive factors are caused by unbalanced urban and rural development which are under "dual structure" contradictory productivity, the Contradictions which are form small-scale production with the largest circulation among market players enterprise system, restructuring the supply chain and other aspects. The direct cause contain the increasing costs which are constricted to initial development stage of docking, poor business rule in coupling, unscientific government policies, unbalance, cet. The key solutions of development threshold" contain improvement the degree of organization of farmers and cooperatives, solution of absence to seller. Other obstructive factors have been solved by two methods. First, cooperatives, supermarkets and service outsourcing enterprises involved in docking need select the way that implementation of the basically competitive mechanisms of market and self-development must be considered as the basis market regulation and the allocation of resources,in order to achieve internal positive cycle in "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode; Second, we must build a mechanisms that contain the regulatory mechanism for the government which can form a positive impact in Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, and a market that cooperatives and enterprises rely on norms of behavior, therefore, the optimizing in outside the system of" Agricultural Super-Docking" mode will be promoted gradually.
5. At the stage of insufficient, unbalanced, short-term failure market mechanism of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, the government needs to play a role of promotion, support and regulation, constantly optimize existing policies, propose new policies and new policy entry points system, so as to mature the "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode. Based on existing problems of development in initial stage of market failure, if we want to accelerate the development of " Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, we must recognize that the existing government policy system doesn't has been adapted to the new requirements, and we must as soon as possible to solve new question of development.,the methods is that we should make a distinction between national and local government on two levels and overall consider the differences the functions, dynamic, standardized policy system, regions, the main type of development, scale, form targeted, on this basis, we carry out reasonable and adaptable supporting policies to promote the development pattern, to solve governance market failure. In addition, From the angle of internal development from farmer cooperatives, supermarket chain in " Agricultural Super-Docking", professional services outsourcing business development in" Agricultural Super-Docking" supply chain and development system and other aspects in " Agricultural Super-Docking", we do the analysis of the new government development policy research, supporting system constitutes and development objectives of " Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, focus of development policy, the development of the cooperatives, guided multiple investors into cooperatives and cooperative downstream to the supply chain, in order to promote the development and self-development of cooperatives, promote policies designed to expand the supermarket business in" Agricultural Super-Docking", promote development of professional service outsourcing enterprises, improve and innovate quality certification and standardization of agricultural products, Make market conduct specification, build public information Platform, support personnel training, etc. All in all, we advice that the development of policy support system, upgrading of specific policies, improvement of the science and relevance and effectiveness of development policy system in " Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, to solve the "development threshold" effect " in " Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, weaken impediments related development, catalysis " Agricultural Super-Docking " mode transformation to matured mode gradually.
Three. Possible innovation
1. The mechanism research of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode of development is on the basis of contract, stability and the goal of long-term benefits.The previous studies of development in "Agricultural Super-Docking" mostly focus on transaction costs and price, this paper select a specific aspect that focus on the " Farmers+Farmer Cooperatives+Supermarket " mode in "Agricultural Super-Docking" base mode, The study begins with the measure whether the cooperation continue for a long term is depended on the stability of contract, meanwhile, in order to achieve goals that we aim at pursuing the interests of long-term, we do some analysis of forming mechanism, development mechanism and the difference of the condition which has no allowance or allowance from external system, in the different situations which contain static games of complete information, dynamic games of complete information, static games of incomplete information, dynamic games of incomplete information. In addition, it took a new try in study design on this paper.
2. The basic system dynamics flow rate into the tree modeling method to study the mechanism of operation,"Agricultural Super-Docking" mode systems from internal and external factors that two dimensions. In order to study the impact more closely how the internal and external factors take effect on the "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, and do a further analysis of development mechanism and operation mechanism, we use the modeling approach of "System dynamics basic flow rate into the tree" to build three archetypes,such as grow archetypes of the cooperative, growth benefits archetypes of supermarket,system integration development archetypes.Furthermore, we do in-depth analysis of the three archetypes and its causal structure and its causal chain, so as to recognize the rule of the system on "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode. Of course, it is still rare for any researcher to use the modeling approach of "System dynamics basic flow rate into the tree" in the analysis of development mechanism and operation mechanism on 'Agricultural Super-Docking" mode.
3.Proposed the ideas of development of an early stage, to solve the problem of "development threshold",weaken related impediments of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode, and optimization of internal and external sys-tem. There are lots of constraint factors,especially such as "development threshold" constraints and obstructive factors, in the early development stage of "Agricultural Super-Docking" mo-de. Author in this paper do a in-depth analysis of the Change of "Agricultural Super-Docking",and reflect on the underlying causes and the direct causes of the development threshold and relevant obstacle factors, and propose optimization ideas which are used to resol-ve development threshold constraints and obstructive factors in the "Agricultural Super-Docking" mode from internal and external systems. Meanwhile, the optimization ideas and analysis in this paper can be considered as significant referents to new policy system and development policy.
引文
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