中国钢铁产业的效率与生产率研究
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摘要
钢铁材料以其优越的力学性能、物理性能、化学性能、工艺性能以及性价比,成为国民经济、社会发展和国防建设重要的原材料,在国民经济和国防建设主要领域还不可替代。我国对钢铁材料的需求量大,在可预见的未来,我国必须拥有大而且强的钢铁产业。钢铁产业是中国工业化、现代化前进道路上不可以舍弃的、具有重要战略意义的产业。
中国钢铁产业自1949年以来取得了显著的发展和进步,钢产量已超过全球产量的三分之一,中国已成为世界主要的钢铁生产基地。但我国钢铁产业地域较为分散,中小钢铁企业多,产业集中度不高。劳动生产率、能耗水平、污染物排放与治理等重要指标与国际先进水平相比有较大差距,出口钢材的附加值不高,高端产品仍依赖进口。中国钢铁产业的问题主要可归结为大而不强、竞争力不足的问题。效率与生产率是产业竞争力的一个重要方面,对中国钢铁产业的效率与生产率进行分析,可为解决上述主要问题提供定量依据。本文从总量层次、省级层次和企业层次,利用中国统计资料可能获取的时间序列数据、面板数据和横截面数据,收集整理万余个数据,采用改进的索罗余值方法、DEA方法以及基于准DEA模型的Malmquist方法对中国钢铁产业的效率与生产率进行了测度,获得的主要结果如下:
(1)测算出了1949-2006年中国钢铁产业的总量生产率及其增长率。由改进的索罗模型测得中国钢铁产业在1975-2006年的生产率增长率为3.6%;由传统的索罗模型测得中国钢铁产业在1975-2006年和1949-2006年的生产率增长率分别为4.2%、2.8%;加入能耗指标后,避免了对中国钢铁产业1975-2006年生产率增长率约0.6%的高估。
(2)1985-2000年全国钢铁产业平均的生产率增长率为3.0%,技术效率的增长率为1.3%,纯技术效率增长率为1.4%,技术进步率为1.7%。技术效率增长对生产率增长的贡献为43%,技术进步对生产率增长的贡献为57%。全国钢铁产业平均的技术效率为0.798,省际间的技术效率相差较大,东部沿海地区的技术效率显著高于其它地区,落后省份只获得了前沿省份产出的50%左右。一些省份规模效率有不超过1%的轻微下降,全国钢铁产业平均的规模效率下降仅为0.1%。我国钢铁产业在规模迅速扩张的同时,基本保持规模报酬不变。
(3)对15个主要钢铁企业1995-2006年间的分析表明,总体平均的技术效率为0.900,企业间的技术效率有最高达28%的差距。总体平均的生产率增长率为5.4%、技术进步率为4.2%、技术效率增长率为1.1%、纯技术效率增长率为0.3%、规模效率增长率为0.8%。
(4)对2005年28个钢铁主营上市公司的分析表明,企业的规模至关重要,大型钢铁联合企业拥有规模效率优势。我国钢铁企业最低经济规模为年产粗钢300-500万吨,年产量达到千万吨的最大钢铁企业没有进入规模报酬递减区域。一些钢铁主营上市公司与前沿企业相比,可能存在严重的人力冗余。
与以往的研究相比,本文的主要创新体现在3个方面:
(1)从宏观、中观和微观层次对中国钢铁产业效率与生产率进行了全面系统的分析,得到了完整、丰富而具有启示性的结果,这些结果相互印证、逻辑一致,形成了对中国钢铁产业效率与生产率较为全面立体的认识,避免了以往孤立、短期分析在结果上的零散性。
(2)基于传统索罗模型,加入能源消耗新变量,构建了适合中国钢铁产业的总量生产率分析模型,并对随机扰动项做出了存在一阶序列自相关的判断且进行了一阶自回归处理。由此而丰富了钢铁产业总量生产率分析方法。
(3)厘清了中国钢铁产业的技术进步、企业规模、产业集中度、产业的地域分布等因素与效率、生产率的相关关系,从定量分析的视角获得了关于中国钢铁产业在技术进步、规模效率和技术效率3个方面的新结论。其一是肯定中国钢铁产业长期而言由劳动资本密集型向资本技术密集型转变,主要依靠技术进步而不是单纯的资源投入取得了生产率增长。其二是揭示出大型钢铁企业具有规模优势,最大的钢铁企业没有进入规模报酬递减区域。其三是具有比较优势的省份和企业有更高的技术效率,东部沿海地区的技术效率显著高于其它地区。
Iron and steel which have predominant mechanics performance, physics and chemistry properties, processing characteristics, and price performance ratio, are important raw and processed materials in national economy, social development and national defence construction.They cannot be substituted by other materials in main domains of national economy and national defence.China demands enormous iron and steel materials.In the foreseeable future,China should hold strong iron and steel industry. Iron and steel industry is an important strategic industry in the forward path of industrialization and modernization of China, which cannot be absolutely weakened.
China’s iron and steel industry (CISI) has made great progress and development since 1949.China is a leading base in iron and steel producing field on the earth and her crude steel output exceeds more than one third of that in the world.But CISI scatters in her territory a lot of small and middle scale enterprises and has lower industry concentration ratio. Its labour productivity and the ratio of energy consumption, pollutants emission and pollutants utilization have obvious gaps with international advanced level. The additive values of Chinese export steel products are lower than those of import ones.China needs to import high-class steel products.The main problem of CISI is that it has only quantitative advantage but no quality predominance synchronously, and has lower international competitiveness.Efficiency and productivity is a primary aspect of competitiveness.This thesis, using improved Solow’s Residual Method and Data Envelopment Analysis Method also quasi-DEA based Malmquist Index Method, measures and analyzes on the efficiency and productivity of CISI by collecting and dealing with more than ten thousand data which were gross time series data, panel data of provinces and enterprises, and cross-sectional data of public companies of CISI from Chinese statistical literature. The main obtained results are as below:
(1)The author has measured the efficiency and productivity of CISI in the period of 1949 to 2006.The total factor productivity(tfp) growth rate of CISI in the period of 1975-2006 is 3.6 percent measured by improved Solow’s Residual Method. It is 4.2 percent and 2.8 percent respectively, measured by Solow’s Residual Method in the period of 1975-2006 and 1949-2006. By adding energy consumption variable, it avoids 0.6 percent of overestimation of the tfp growth rate of CISI in 1975-2006.
(2) In the period of 1985 to 2000, totally, CISI obtains 3.0 percent of tfp growth rate, 1.3 percent of technical efficiency growth rate, 1.4 percent of pure technical efficiency growth rate and 1.7 percent of technological progress rate. The contribution ratio of technical efficiency growth and technological progress to tfp growth of CISI in this period is 43 percent and 57 percent respectively. Totally, the technical efficiency of CISI is 0.798, there are high gaps between provinces’technical efficiencies.The technical efficiency of eastern coast zone was higher than any other zone markedly, and the most laggard province in technical efficiency produced almost 50 percent yields of that on the production frontier.Some provinces have less than 1 percent decline of scale efficiency.There is only 0.1 percent decline of scale efficiency of CISI totally.The scale efficiency of CISI was almost changeless with its expand of producing scale.
(3) The results from analyzing on the 15 Chinese main iron and steel enterprises in the period of 1995 to 2006 show that their average technical efficiency was 0.900, but there was 28 percent highest gap between the best enterprise and the most laggard one. Their average growth rate of tfp, technological progress, technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency was 5.4, 4.2, 1.1, 0.3 and 0.8 percent respectively.
(4) The results from analyzing on the 28 Chinese steel producing public companies in 2005 show that the scale of an enterprise is important to its efficiency. A larger iron and steel integrated complex has greater predominance to a smaller one. The lowest economy scale of a Chinese iron and steel enterprise is about 3 to 5 million tons of annual crude steel output. The number one enterprise with more than 20 million tons of annual crude steel output does not operate in the decreasing returns to scale region of feasible production. Some Chinese steel producing public companies may have serious labour redundancy as compared with one on the frontier.
Compared with the previous researches, the innovative points of this paper lie in the following three aspects:
First, this thesis measures the efficiency and productivity of CISI systematically at macroscopical, medium-cosmic and microcosmic level and receives abundant helpful revelatory results. The results are confirmed with each other, harmonious in logic, and show a panorama of the efficiency and productivity of CISI. It avoids fragmentary solution to analysis on the efficiency and productivity of CISI, and is unlike that of a previous isolated short-term investigation.
Second,based on traditional Solow’s Residual Method,the author constructs a proper model improved by adding energy consumption variable to measure gross productivity growth of CISI. The author estimates that there be serial autocorrelation in the stochastic disturbance of the improved model and treats it by AR(1) model. The author’s contribution in model improvement and stochastic disturbance treatment enriches the method of measuring gross productivity growth of iron and steel industry.
Third, the author makes clear the relationship between CISI’s technology progress, enterprise scale, concentration ratio of industry, regional distribution of industry with efficiency and productivity, and receives three new conclusions about technological progress, scale efficiency and technical efficiency via quantitative analysis.First,the author affirms that CISI changes form labour and capital intensive type to capital and technology intensive one in long term and receives its tfp growth mainly by technological progress but not merely by quantity of resource inputs.Second, the author shows that a larger scale enterprise has more scale advantage than a smaller one, and the biggest one has not enter into the DRS region of the feasible production boundary.Third,a province or enterprise with comparative advantages exhibits higher technical efficiency, and the eastern coastal area has higher technical efficiency than any other one.
中国钢铁产业自1949年以来取得了显著的发展和进步,钢产量已超过全球产量的三分之一,中国已成为世界主要的钢铁生产基地。但我国钢铁产业地域较为分散,中小钢铁企业多,产业集中度不高。劳动生产率、能耗水平、污染物排放与治理等重要指标与国际先进水平相比有较大差距,出口钢材的附加值不高,高端产品仍依赖进口。中国钢铁产业的问题主要可归结为大而不强、竞争力不足的问题。效率与生产率是产业竞争力的一个重要方面,对中国钢铁产业的效率与生产率进行分析,可为解决上述主要问题提供定量依据。本文从总量层次、省级层次和企业层次,利用中国统计资料可能获取的时间序列数据、面板数据和横截面数据,收集整理万余个数据,采用改进的索罗余值方法、DEA方法以及基于准DEA模型的Malmquist方法对中国钢铁产业的效率与生产率进行了测度,获得的主要结果如下:
(1)测算出了1949-2006年中国钢铁产业的总量生产率及其增长率。由改进的索罗模型测得中国钢铁产业在1975-2006年的生产率增长率为3.6%;由传统的索罗模型测得中国钢铁产业在1975-2006年和1949-2006年的生产率增长率分别为4.2%、2.8%;加入能耗指标后,避免了对中国钢铁产业1975-2006年生产率增长率约0.6%的高估。
(2)1985-2000年全国钢铁产业平均的生产率增长率为3.0%,技术效率的增长率为1.3%,纯技术效率增长率为1.4%,技术进步率为1.7%。技术效率增长对生产率增长的贡献为43%,技术进步对生产率增长的贡献为57%。全国钢铁产业平均的技术效率为0.798,省际间的技术效率相差较大,东部沿海地区的技术效率显著高于其它地区,落后省份只获得了前沿省份产出的50%左右。一些省份规模效率有不超过1%的轻微下降,全国钢铁产业平均的规模效率下降仅为0.1%。我国钢铁产业在规模迅速扩张的同时,基本保持规模报酬不变。
(3)对15个主要钢铁企业1995-2006年间的分析表明,总体平均的技术效率为0.900,企业间的技术效率有最高达28%的差距。总体平均的生产率增长率为5.4%、技术进步率为4.2%、技术效率增长率为1.1%、纯技术效率增长率为0.3%、规模效率增长率为0.8%。
(4)对2005年28个钢铁主营上市公司的分析表明,企业的规模至关重要,大型钢铁联合企业拥有规模效率优势。我国钢铁企业最低经济规模为年产粗钢300-500万吨,年产量达到千万吨的最大钢铁企业没有进入规模报酬递减区域。一些钢铁主营上市公司与前沿企业相比,可能存在严重的人力冗余。
与以往的研究相比,本文的主要创新体现在3个方面:
(1)从宏观、中观和微观层次对中国钢铁产业效率与生产率进行了全面系统的分析,得到了完整、丰富而具有启示性的结果,这些结果相互印证、逻辑一致,形成了对中国钢铁产业效率与生产率较为全面立体的认识,避免了以往孤立、短期分析在结果上的零散性。
(2)基于传统索罗模型,加入能源消耗新变量,构建了适合中国钢铁产业的总量生产率分析模型,并对随机扰动项做出了存在一阶序列自相关的判断且进行了一阶自回归处理。由此而丰富了钢铁产业总量生产率分析方法。
(3)厘清了中国钢铁产业的技术进步、企业规模、产业集中度、产业的地域分布等因素与效率、生产率的相关关系,从定量分析的视角获得了关于中国钢铁产业在技术进步、规模效率和技术效率3个方面的新结论。其一是肯定中国钢铁产业长期而言由劳动资本密集型向资本技术密集型转变,主要依靠技术进步而不是单纯的资源投入取得了生产率增长。其二是揭示出大型钢铁企业具有规模优势,最大的钢铁企业没有进入规模报酬递减区域。其三是具有比较优势的省份和企业有更高的技术效率,东部沿海地区的技术效率显著高于其它地区。
Iron and steel which have predominant mechanics performance, physics and chemistry properties, processing characteristics, and price performance ratio, are important raw and processed materials in national economy, social development and national defence construction.They cannot be substituted by other materials in main domains of national economy and national defence.China demands enormous iron and steel materials.In the foreseeable future,China should hold strong iron and steel industry. Iron and steel industry is an important strategic industry in the forward path of industrialization and modernization of China, which cannot be absolutely weakened.
China’s iron and steel industry (CISI) has made great progress and development since 1949.China is a leading base in iron and steel producing field on the earth and her crude steel output exceeds more than one third of that in the world.But CISI scatters in her territory a lot of small and middle scale enterprises and has lower industry concentration ratio. Its labour productivity and the ratio of energy consumption, pollutants emission and pollutants utilization have obvious gaps with international advanced level. The additive values of Chinese export steel products are lower than those of import ones.China needs to import high-class steel products.The main problem of CISI is that it has only quantitative advantage but no quality predominance synchronously, and has lower international competitiveness.Efficiency and productivity is a primary aspect of competitiveness.This thesis, using improved Solow’s Residual Method and Data Envelopment Analysis Method also quasi-DEA based Malmquist Index Method, measures and analyzes on the efficiency and productivity of CISI by collecting and dealing with more than ten thousand data which were gross time series data, panel data of provinces and enterprises, and cross-sectional data of public companies of CISI from Chinese statistical literature. The main obtained results are as below:
(1)The author has measured the efficiency and productivity of CISI in the period of 1949 to 2006.The total factor productivity(tfp) growth rate of CISI in the period of 1975-2006 is 3.6 percent measured by improved Solow’s Residual Method. It is 4.2 percent and 2.8 percent respectively, measured by Solow’s Residual Method in the period of 1975-2006 and 1949-2006. By adding energy consumption variable, it avoids 0.6 percent of overestimation of the tfp growth rate of CISI in 1975-2006.
(2) In the period of 1985 to 2000, totally, CISI obtains 3.0 percent of tfp growth rate, 1.3 percent of technical efficiency growth rate, 1.4 percent of pure technical efficiency growth rate and 1.7 percent of technological progress rate. The contribution ratio of technical efficiency growth and technological progress to tfp growth of CISI in this period is 43 percent and 57 percent respectively. Totally, the technical efficiency of CISI is 0.798, there are high gaps between provinces’technical efficiencies.The technical efficiency of eastern coast zone was higher than any other zone markedly, and the most laggard province in technical efficiency produced almost 50 percent yields of that on the production frontier.Some provinces have less than 1 percent decline of scale efficiency.There is only 0.1 percent decline of scale efficiency of CISI totally.The scale efficiency of CISI was almost changeless with its expand of producing scale.
(3) The results from analyzing on the 15 Chinese main iron and steel enterprises in the period of 1995 to 2006 show that their average technical efficiency was 0.900, but there was 28 percent highest gap between the best enterprise and the most laggard one. Their average growth rate of tfp, technological progress, technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency was 5.4, 4.2, 1.1, 0.3 and 0.8 percent respectively.
(4) The results from analyzing on the 28 Chinese steel producing public companies in 2005 show that the scale of an enterprise is important to its efficiency. A larger iron and steel integrated complex has greater predominance to a smaller one. The lowest economy scale of a Chinese iron and steel enterprise is about 3 to 5 million tons of annual crude steel output. The number one enterprise with more than 20 million tons of annual crude steel output does not operate in the decreasing returns to scale region of feasible production. Some Chinese steel producing public companies may have serious labour redundancy as compared with one on the frontier.
Compared with the previous researches, the innovative points of this paper lie in the following three aspects:
First, this thesis measures the efficiency and productivity of CISI systematically at macroscopical, medium-cosmic and microcosmic level and receives abundant helpful revelatory results. The results are confirmed with each other, harmonious in logic, and show a panorama of the efficiency and productivity of CISI. It avoids fragmentary solution to analysis on the efficiency and productivity of CISI, and is unlike that of a previous isolated short-term investigation.
Second,based on traditional Solow’s Residual Method,the author constructs a proper model improved by adding energy consumption variable to measure gross productivity growth of CISI. The author estimates that there be serial autocorrelation in the stochastic disturbance of the improved model and treats it by AR(1) model. The author’s contribution in model improvement and stochastic disturbance treatment enriches the method of measuring gross productivity growth of iron and steel industry.
Third, the author makes clear the relationship between CISI’s technology progress, enterprise scale, concentration ratio of industry, regional distribution of industry with efficiency and productivity, and receives three new conclusions about technological progress, scale efficiency and technical efficiency via quantitative analysis.First,the author affirms that CISI changes form labour and capital intensive type to capital and technology intensive one in long term and receives its tfp growth mainly by technological progress but not merely by quantity of resource inputs.Second, the author shows that a larger scale enterprise has more scale advantage than a smaller one, and the biggest one has not enter into the DRS region of the feasible production boundary.Third,a province or enterprise with comparative advantages exhibits higher technical efficiency, and the eastern coastal area has higher technical efficiency than any other one.
引文
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