基于博弈分析的物流园区运营模式研究
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摘要
我国物流园区建设快速,在取得了巨大成就的同时,也暴露了不少的问题。投融资结构不合理；物流园区空置率过高；物流园区的盈利手段单一,盈利能力低下。不能起到降低区域内企业的物流成本,增强本区域企业或产业的竞争力,促进本地经济发展的作用。可以说,物流园区的运营虽然有国外物流园区运营的成功经验可供借鉴,但国内物流园区的运营模式必须走一条适应我国特色和地方经济发展需求的道路。
本文以物流园区运营模式作为研究对象,从系统分析方法入手,分析了物流园区运营中存在的问题,研究了物流园区运营模式的功能,阐明了物流园区运营模式的概念和内涵,论文主要研究结论如下：
(1)构建了物流园区投资开发模式参与主体关系博弈模型；运用博弈论中的“完全信息静态博弈”的理论,对于政府和企业的投资动机和心理进行分析,以物流园区需要投资的基础设施和载运工具作为具体的分析对象,分析政府和企业对于物流园区投资的划分范畴,做到在对物流园区的投资中,政府和企业的资金各自用到适当的投资对象上。
(2)提出了采用PPP模式来投资开发物流园区,分析了PPP模式在物流园区开发中的类型、特点和适用性,设计了PPP模式开发物流园区的整体模式和分散模式。并改进了博弈论中的“讨价还价”模型构建了物流园区的PPP模式开发模式融资风险分担模型——多人参与的多阶段“讨价还价”风险分担模型,讨论在物流园区建设中PPP模式的可行性和风险奉陪的策略；更为理性的分配物流园区开发中政府和企业合作开发所存在的风险。
(3)运用“监督博弈理论”,构建了物流园区“服务质量博弈模型”,为物流园区管理方维护物流园区声誉,监管园区入驻物流企业的服务质量提供一种可行的方法。并运用“委托——代理理论”构建了物流园区“价格监管博弈模型”,为物流园区管理者预防园区入驻物流企业进行恶性竞争,监管园区入驻物流企业的服务价格提供一种可行的方法。
(4)在构建物流园区盈利能力评价指标体系的基础上,综合运用德尔菲法、层次分析法和模糊综合评判法,建立了物流园区盈利能力层次-模糊评价模型,对物流园区的盈利能力进行系统的分析,评价盈利模式的优劣和适应性,为物流园区选择最佳的盈利模式提供决策方法。
本文提出的物流园区投资模式、管理模式和盈利模式,可为区域物流园区运营模式选择提供借鉴,对我国物流园区的发展具有重要的现实意义。
The logistics parks of our country have existed for twelve years till now, and many problems have been exposed with the great achievements. The investment and financing structure are unreasonable, because the loans from bank take large proportion in the development capitals of logistics parks with less using the social and foreign capitals, in existence of the financial risk. The vacancy rate of Logistics Park is over high because of lacking the market investigation and research before the construction, as a result, the logistics parks are difficult to be accepted by the market. The vertical structures of clear levels are not forming in the logistics park management. The government focuses on dealing with the programming, investment and construction of Logistics Park, but they ignore the management system. The profiting methods are single, and profiting ability are low, the logistics costing of the regional corporation is not decreased, meanwhile, the competition capability of the regional corporations and industries is not increased, so the local economics development are not accelerated. Although the domestic operation of the logistics park are able to draw lessons from the successful experiences of the foreign logistics parks'operation, it is still in the process of exploration, thus the domestic operation mode of logistics park should adapt the regional economics development and full of Chinese characters.
This paper chooses operation mode of Logistics Park as the study object and usees systemic analysis method, analyzing the existing problem of the logistics parks' operation, studying the operation mode's functions of Logistics Park, describing the conception and connotation of operation mode of Logistics Park. The researching achievements are as below:
(1) The paper builds the investors' relations model of Logistics Park's investment mode based on the Game Theory. Using the theory of "static game of compete information" to analyze the investing motivation and psychology of the government and corporation by taking the infrastructure and equipment of Logistics Park as the research object. It verifies the investing categories of government and corporation to make sure that the capitals of government and corporation are used in the appropriate investing object separately, and distribute capitals effectively to avoid the unnecessary waste and pleonastic construction.
(2) The paper proposes to use the PPP (Public and private partnership) mode to invest and develop the Logistics Park, and analyze the types, characters and applicability of PPP mode in the logistics park exploitation. Design the integral and separated mode of logistics parks exploitation. Improve the "bargaining" model of Game Theory to build risk-sharing models of the PPP mode. Discuss the situation of many participators and multi-stage, and analyze the feasibility of PPP mode and strategy of taking on risks in the construction of the logistics park. Then, allocate the risks of the exploitation between cooperation and government rationally.
(3) Using the "Supervising Game" theory to build the "Game model of service quality", propose how to solve the problem of uneven service quality which provided by different logistic corporations in the same logistics park. Taking the "Principal-agent Theory" build the "Game model of price regulation" to make the managers of logistics park able to supervise the service charge of the inner logistic companies. It is helpful for manager of Logistics Park to supervise the inner logistic companies and improve the service levels, and increase the market competitiveness of the logistics park.
(4) Delphi Method, Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation methods are used to build the profiting capability hierarchy--fuzzy evaluation model, using the relevant indicators to distinguish the logistics park's profiting model in order to find out the suitable profiting model which adapt to the development of logistics park.
The investment model, management model and profiting model of Logistics Park which put forward by the paper are able to provide lessons for selecting the operating model, and have important practical significance on the healthy development of Chinese Logistics Park.
本文以物流园区运营模式作为研究对象,从系统分析方法入手,分析了物流园区运营中存在的问题,研究了物流园区运营模式的功能,阐明了物流园区运营模式的概念和内涵,论文主要研究结论如下：
(1)构建了物流园区投资开发模式参与主体关系博弈模型；运用博弈论中的“完全信息静态博弈”的理论,对于政府和企业的投资动机和心理进行分析,以物流园区需要投资的基础设施和载运工具作为具体的分析对象,分析政府和企业对于物流园区投资的划分范畴,做到在对物流园区的投资中,政府和企业的资金各自用到适当的投资对象上。
(2)提出了采用PPP模式来投资开发物流园区,分析了PPP模式在物流园区开发中的类型、特点和适用性,设计了PPP模式开发物流园区的整体模式和分散模式。并改进了博弈论中的“讨价还价”模型构建了物流园区的PPP模式开发模式融资风险分担模型——多人参与的多阶段“讨价还价”风险分担模型,讨论在物流园区建设中PPP模式的可行性和风险奉陪的策略；更为理性的分配物流园区开发中政府和企业合作开发所存在的风险。
(3)运用“监督博弈理论”,构建了物流园区“服务质量博弈模型”,为物流园区管理方维护物流园区声誉,监管园区入驻物流企业的服务质量提供一种可行的方法。并运用“委托——代理理论”构建了物流园区“价格监管博弈模型”,为物流园区管理者预防园区入驻物流企业进行恶性竞争,监管园区入驻物流企业的服务价格提供一种可行的方法。
(4)在构建物流园区盈利能力评价指标体系的基础上,综合运用德尔菲法、层次分析法和模糊综合评判法,建立了物流园区盈利能力层次-模糊评价模型,对物流园区的盈利能力进行系统的分析,评价盈利模式的优劣和适应性,为物流园区选择最佳的盈利模式提供决策方法。
本文提出的物流园区投资模式、管理模式和盈利模式,可为区域物流园区运营模式选择提供借鉴,对我国物流园区的发展具有重要的现实意义。
The logistics parks of our country have existed for twelve years till now, and many problems have been exposed with the great achievements. The investment and financing structure are unreasonable, because the loans from bank take large proportion in the development capitals of logistics parks with less using the social and foreign capitals, in existence of the financial risk. The vacancy rate of Logistics Park is over high because of lacking the market investigation and research before the construction, as a result, the logistics parks are difficult to be accepted by the market. The vertical structures of clear levels are not forming in the logistics park management. The government focuses on dealing with the programming, investment and construction of Logistics Park, but they ignore the management system. The profiting methods are single, and profiting ability are low, the logistics costing of the regional corporation is not decreased, meanwhile, the competition capability of the regional corporations and industries is not increased, so the local economics development are not accelerated. Although the domestic operation of the logistics park are able to draw lessons from the successful experiences of the foreign logistics parks'operation, it is still in the process of exploration, thus the domestic operation mode of logistics park should adapt the regional economics development and full of Chinese characters.
This paper chooses operation mode of Logistics Park as the study object and usees systemic analysis method, analyzing the existing problem of the logistics parks' operation, studying the operation mode's functions of Logistics Park, describing the conception and connotation of operation mode of Logistics Park. The researching achievements are as below:
(1) The paper builds the investors' relations model of Logistics Park's investment mode based on the Game Theory. Using the theory of "static game of compete information" to analyze the investing motivation and psychology of the government and corporation by taking the infrastructure and equipment of Logistics Park as the research object. It verifies the investing categories of government and corporation to make sure that the capitals of government and corporation are used in the appropriate investing object separately, and distribute capitals effectively to avoid the unnecessary waste and pleonastic construction.
(2) The paper proposes to use the PPP (Public and private partnership) mode to invest and develop the Logistics Park, and analyze the types, characters and applicability of PPP mode in the logistics park exploitation. Design the integral and separated mode of logistics parks exploitation. Improve the "bargaining" model of Game Theory to build risk-sharing models of the PPP mode. Discuss the situation of many participators and multi-stage, and analyze the feasibility of PPP mode and strategy of taking on risks in the construction of the logistics park. Then, allocate the risks of the exploitation between cooperation and government rationally.
(3) Using the "Supervising Game" theory to build the "Game model of service quality", propose how to solve the problem of uneven service quality which provided by different logistic corporations in the same logistics park. Taking the "Principal-agent Theory" build the "Game model of price regulation" to make the managers of logistics park able to supervise the service charge of the inner logistic companies. It is helpful for manager of Logistics Park to supervise the inner logistic companies and improve the service levels, and increase the market competitiveness of the logistics park.
(4) Delphi Method, Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation methods are used to build the profiting capability hierarchy--fuzzy evaluation model, using the relevant indicators to distinguish the logistics park's profiting model in order to find out the suitable profiting model which adapt to the development of logistics park.
The investment model, management model and profiting model of Logistics Park which put forward by the paper are able to provide lessons for selecting the operating model, and have important practical significance on the healthy development of Chinese Logistics Park.
引文
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