中石化石油焦物流配送中心建设研究
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摘要
物流配送中心在物流系统中处于枢纽或重要位置,发挥着重要作用,是现代物流发展的关键之一。物流配送中心最贴近终端客户,可以有效地提高物流作业效率、缩短交货周期、改进物流服务质量、加速商品流通、降低物流成本,从而提高企业竞争力。
目前,随着我国经济的快速发展,石油焦下游行业迅速发展,国内石油焦的消费量迅速增长。中石化作为国内最大的石油焦生产商,面对日益激烈的市场竞争,开始逐渐意识到,建立石油焦物流配送中心,可以更加贴近客户、缩短交货周期、提供更多的服务和提高企业竞争力。因此,研究中石化石油焦物流配送中心建设,具有重要的理论和实践意义。物流配送中心建设包括很多方面,本研究将重点研究中石化石油焦物流配送中心选址问题。
本文首先提出研究的选题背景、目的和意义,阐述物流量需求预测研究现状和物流配送中心选址研究现状,接着介绍物流配送中心的概念、作用、分类及功能,物流配送中心选址的影响因素和方法;然后剖析中石化石油焦市场现状和物流运作现状,了解目前中石化石油焦物流运作,确定石油焦供需分布和供需量,并根据中石化石油焦物流量数据,采用直线趋势外推法对中石化石油焦物流量进行预测。在此基础上,结合对备选地调研情况,基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价法确定石油焦物流配送中心备选地址,构建物流配送中心选址的线性规划模型,对物流配送中心的设置规模、位置等问题进行研究;最后,对中石化石油焦物流配送中心建设提出可行性建议,为中石化实施石油焦物流配送中心建设提供参考与借鉴。
Logistics and distribution center is at the hub and plays an important role in the logistics system. It is the key to the development of modern logistics. Distribution Center is most close to the end customers, effectively improves the efficiency of logistics operations, shortens delivery cycles, improves logistics service quality, accelerates the circulation of commodities, and reduces logistics costs, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of enterprises.
Now, with the rapid development of China's economic and the swift evolution of petroleum coke downstream industries, the domestic consumption of the petroleum coke growth rapidly. In the face of increasingly fierce market competition, Sinopec, as China's largest coke producer, begin to realize that the establishment of logistics distribution center of petroleum coke can get closer to customers, shorten delivery cycle, provide more services and improve the competitive force. Therefore, the study of the Sinopec petroleum coke distribution center construction has important theoretical and practical significance. Logistics and distribution center includes many aspects .This study will focus on the problem of the Sinopec petroleum coke logistics distribution center location.
Firstly, this thesis proposes the background, purpose and meaning of the study, describes research status of the amount of demand forecasting and logistics distribution center location, then introduces the logistics and distribution center's concept , classification, function, location factors and methods; then analyzes the market situation and logistics status of the Sinopec petroleum coke, introduces the current operations of the Sinopec Petroleum coke, confirms the distribution and amount of petroleum coke supply and demand, and uses a linear trend extrapolation to predict the amount of the Sinopec petroleum coke logistics, according to the amount of the Sinopec petroleum coke logistics data. On this basis, combined with the research situation on alternatives, using the AHP-Fuzzy to determine options for petroleum coke distribution center address, building linear programming model of the logistics distribution center location , and researching the question about scale and location of the logistics distribution center;Finally, putting forward feasibility proposal for the Sinopec petroleum coke distribution center building, and providing reference and experience for the Sinopec 's implementation of the petroleum coke logistics and distribution center.
目前,随着我国经济的快速发展,石油焦下游行业迅速发展,国内石油焦的消费量迅速增长。中石化作为国内最大的石油焦生产商,面对日益激烈的市场竞争,开始逐渐意识到,建立石油焦物流配送中心,可以更加贴近客户、缩短交货周期、提供更多的服务和提高企业竞争力。因此,研究中石化石油焦物流配送中心建设,具有重要的理论和实践意义。物流配送中心建设包括很多方面,本研究将重点研究中石化石油焦物流配送中心选址问题。
本文首先提出研究的选题背景、目的和意义,阐述物流量需求预测研究现状和物流配送中心选址研究现状,接着介绍物流配送中心的概念、作用、分类及功能,物流配送中心选址的影响因素和方法;然后剖析中石化石油焦市场现状和物流运作现状,了解目前中石化石油焦物流运作,确定石油焦供需分布和供需量,并根据中石化石油焦物流量数据,采用直线趋势外推法对中石化石油焦物流量进行预测。在此基础上,结合对备选地调研情况,基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价法确定石油焦物流配送中心备选地址,构建物流配送中心选址的线性规划模型,对物流配送中心的设置规模、位置等问题进行研究;最后,对中石化石油焦物流配送中心建设提出可行性建议,为中石化实施石油焦物流配送中心建设提供参考与借鉴。
Logistics and distribution center is at the hub and plays an important role in the logistics system. It is the key to the development of modern logistics. Distribution Center is most close to the end customers, effectively improves the efficiency of logistics operations, shortens delivery cycles, improves logistics service quality, accelerates the circulation of commodities, and reduces logistics costs, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of enterprises.
Now, with the rapid development of China's economic and the swift evolution of petroleum coke downstream industries, the domestic consumption of the petroleum coke growth rapidly. In the face of increasingly fierce market competition, Sinopec, as China's largest coke producer, begin to realize that the establishment of logistics distribution center of petroleum coke can get closer to customers, shorten delivery cycle, provide more services and improve the competitive force. Therefore, the study of the Sinopec petroleum coke distribution center construction has important theoretical and practical significance. Logistics and distribution center includes many aspects .This study will focus on the problem of the Sinopec petroleum coke logistics distribution center location.
Firstly, this thesis proposes the background, purpose and meaning of the study, describes research status of the amount of demand forecasting and logistics distribution center location, then introduces the logistics and distribution center's concept , classification, function, location factors and methods; then analyzes the market situation and logistics status of the Sinopec petroleum coke, introduces the current operations of the Sinopec Petroleum coke, confirms the distribution and amount of petroleum coke supply and demand, and uses a linear trend extrapolation to predict the amount of the Sinopec petroleum coke logistics, according to the amount of the Sinopec petroleum coke logistics data. On this basis, combined with the research situation on alternatives, using the AHP-Fuzzy to determine options for petroleum coke distribution center address, building linear programming model of the logistics distribution center location , and researching the question about scale and location of the logistics distribution center;Finally, putting forward feasibility proposal for the Sinopec petroleum coke distribution center building, and providing reference and experience for the Sinopec 's implementation of the petroleum coke logistics and distribution center.
引文
[1] Gregory A Godfrey,Warren B Powell. Transportation Research.Part B,2000,(34);45 1-469.
[2] AL-Deek,Haitham M.Using of vessel freight data to forecast heavy truck movements at seaports. Transportation System Institute,Dept of Civ./Environ. University of Central Florida,Orlando,FL32818-2450,United States.
[3] Garrido,Rodrig A,Mahmassani. Forecasting freight transportation demand with the space-time multinomial probit modle.Transportation Research,Part B.2000.(34):403-418.
[4] PauloS A Freitas , AntOnio J L Rodrigues. Model combination in neural-Based forecasting.European Journal of Operational Research,2006,(173):801—814.
[5]李海建,曹卫东,曹有挥.芜湖市物流业发展的现状分析及规模预测[J].安徽师范大学学报(自然科学版),2003,6
[6]徐金河.三次指数平滑法在太仓港吞吐量预测中的应用[J].物流工程与管理,2009,6
[7]纪龙.灰色模型在港口货物吞吐量预测中的应用[J].科技资讯,2009,25
[8]马昌喜,郭坤卿,马永红.基于改进灰色-马尔可夫链方法的公路货运量预测[J].兰州交通大学学报,2009,8
[9]乔向明,董梅,张明香.基于弹性系数法的全国公路客货运量预测研究[J].华东公路,2004,9
[10]方威,肖衡,任湘郴.基于线性回归模型的物流需求预测分析[J].生产力研究,2009,12
[11]窦宁,赵庆祯,黄春波.基于农村物流需求量的组合预测分析[J].物流科技,2008,12
[12]马银军.基于BP神经网络的物流量预测方法研究[J].物流科技,2010,5
[13]杨峰,牛惠民,邵晓彤.基于GA—BP算法的模糊神经网络模型在港口物流量预测中的应用[J].物流科技,2009,12
[14]朱超.组合预测在港口吞吐量预测中的应用研究[J].港工技术,2006,9
[15]刘延平,邵悦然,李卫东.我国铁路客运量的组合预测[J].物流技术,2010,4
[16]于忠霞,李家伟.组合预测法在成都公路物流需求预测中的应用[J].中国储运,2008,3
[17] Aikens C H. Facility location models for distribution planning. European Journal of Operational Research, 1985, 22(3):263-279
[18] Holmberg K. Exact Solution Methods for Incapacitated Location Problem with Convex Transportation Costs.European Journal of Operational Research, 1999, 114(1):127-140
[19] Chen Tang Chen.A fuzzy approach to select the location of the distribution Center Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 200l, l18:65—73
[20] Barahona E,Jensen D.Plant Location with Minimum Inventory.Mathematical Programming, 1998, 83(1):101-111
[21] Steven J.E.,Russell D.M. The Interaction of Location and Inventory in Designing Distribution Systems.IIE transcations, 2000, 32:155-166
[22] Owen S H, Daskin M S.Strategic facility location:a review.European Journal of Operational Research, 1998, 111(3):423--447
[23]戴英姿,马啸来.配送中心选址方案的综合评价方法[J].石家庄铁道学院学报, 2004,17
[24]肖剑,陈义华.DEA评价下的配送中心再选址模型及求解[J].系统工程学报,2006, 21
[25]丁立群,李永周.基于模糊评价的物流配送中心选址问题研究[J].物流工程与管理,2009,31(12)
[26]郭轶,周丹.基于TOPSIS/DEA/AHP法的物流配送中心选址问题分析[J].重庆工学院学报(自然科学),2009,23(11)
[27]张方,刘丙午.基于混合整数规划模型的物流配送中心选址优化[J]物流技术,2007,26(11)
[28]刘晓惠,景清泉,霍俊爽.基于0-1型整数规划的配送中心选址[J]中国市场,2009,2
[29]孙会君,高自友.一类有竞争的物流配送中心选址模型[J]交通运输工程学报,2002,2(4)
[30]冯瑞芳,丰超.物流配送中心选址策略研究[J].科学技术与工程,2008,8(12)
[31]吴颖,程赐胜.基于SOM神经网络的民用爆炸物品配送中心选址决策.长沙交通学院学报,2007,23
[32]任春玉,王晓博.基于遗传算法和模糊综合评价法物流配送中心选址研究[J].物流科技,2006,29(10)
[33]王芳.配送中心选址算法研究[D].华中师范大学硕士学位论文,2008
[34]李昌兵,杜茂康.基于混沌免疫进化算法的物流配送中心选址方案[J].商场现代化,2008,3
[35]杜乐乐,燕子宗,李静等。油库选址的最大覆盖模型研究[J].长江大学学报(自然科学版), 2008,5(3)
[36]薛永吉,李旭宏,程日盛.基于仿真技术的物流中心站台数确定方法研究[J].物流技术,2005,6
[37]吕奇光,许茂增.基于交通流分析的物流中心选址仿真研究[J].交通信息与安全,2009,4
[38]张云凤,乔立新,刘伟东.基于仿真技术的配送中心选址方法研究[J].物流技术,2005,12
[39]王家聚.基于重心法的配送中心选址研究及应用[J].长江大学学报(社会科学版),2008,8
[40]杨茂盛,李霞.改进重心法在物流配送中心选址中的应用[J].物流技术,2007,6
[41]刘飞.基于改进的重心法在配送中心选址中的应用[J].物流科技,2009,6
[42]贾争现.物流配送中心规划与设计[M].(第2版).北京:机械工业出版社,2010.1-2
[43]杨双林.配送中心的选址问题研究[D].江苏大学硕士学位论文,2005.
[44]孙景元.现代物流配送中心探讨[J].现代商业,2009,35
[45]徐杰,郑凯,田源等.配送中心选址的影响因素分析及案例[J].北方交通大学学报,2001,
[46]王玲.物流中心物流量预测及实例分析[J].科技信息,2006,9
[47]赵刚.物流运筹[M].成都:四川人民出版社,2002
[48]徐国详.统计预测和决策[M].(第2版).上海:上海财经大学出版社,2005
[49]陈林华,刘秀琴.物流配送中心选址问题研究[J].消费导刊,2009,5
[50]徐贤浩.物流配送中心规划与运作管理[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2007
[51]李佑珍.层次分析法在物流中心选址中的应用[J].青海师范大学学报(自然科学版),2003,2
[2] AL-Deek,Haitham M.Using of vessel freight data to forecast heavy truck movements at seaports. Transportation System Institute,Dept of Civ./Environ. University of Central Florida,Orlando,FL32818-2450,United States.
[3] Garrido,Rodrig A,Mahmassani. Forecasting freight transportation demand with the space-time multinomial probit modle.Transportation Research,Part B.2000.(34):403-418.
[4] PauloS A Freitas , AntOnio J L Rodrigues. Model combination in neural-Based forecasting.European Journal of Operational Research,2006,(173):801—814.
[5]李海建,曹卫东,曹有挥.芜湖市物流业发展的现状分析及规模预测[J].安徽师范大学学报(自然科学版),2003,6
[6]徐金河.三次指数平滑法在太仓港吞吐量预测中的应用[J].物流工程与管理,2009,6
[7]纪龙.灰色模型在港口货物吞吐量预测中的应用[J].科技资讯,2009,25
[8]马昌喜,郭坤卿,马永红.基于改进灰色-马尔可夫链方法的公路货运量预测[J].兰州交通大学学报,2009,8
[9]乔向明,董梅,张明香.基于弹性系数法的全国公路客货运量预测研究[J].华东公路,2004,9
[10]方威,肖衡,任湘郴.基于线性回归模型的物流需求预测分析[J].生产力研究,2009,12
[11]窦宁,赵庆祯,黄春波.基于农村物流需求量的组合预测分析[J].物流科技,2008,12
[12]马银军.基于BP神经网络的物流量预测方法研究[J].物流科技,2010,5
[13]杨峰,牛惠民,邵晓彤.基于GA—BP算法的模糊神经网络模型在港口物流量预测中的应用[J].物流科技,2009,12
[14]朱超.组合预测在港口吞吐量预测中的应用研究[J].港工技术,2006,9
[15]刘延平,邵悦然,李卫东.我国铁路客运量的组合预测[J].物流技术,2010,4
[16]于忠霞,李家伟.组合预测法在成都公路物流需求预测中的应用[J].中国储运,2008,3
[17] Aikens C H. Facility location models for distribution planning. European Journal of Operational Research, 1985, 22(3):263-279
[18] Holmberg K. Exact Solution Methods for Incapacitated Location Problem with Convex Transportation Costs.European Journal of Operational Research, 1999, 114(1):127-140
[19] Chen Tang Chen.A fuzzy approach to select the location of the distribution Center Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 200l, l18:65—73
[20] Barahona E,Jensen D.Plant Location with Minimum Inventory.Mathematical Programming, 1998, 83(1):101-111
[21] Steven J.E.,Russell D.M. The Interaction of Location and Inventory in Designing Distribution Systems.IIE transcations, 2000, 32:155-166
[22] Owen S H, Daskin M S.Strategic facility location:a review.European Journal of Operational Research, 1998, 111(3):423--447
[23]戴英姿,马啸来.配送中心选址方案的综合评价方法[J].石家庄铁道学院学报, 2004,17
[24]肖剑,陈义华.DEA评价下的配送中心再选址模型及求解[J].系统工程学报,2006, 21
[25]丁立群,李永周.基于模糊评价的物流配送中心选址问题研究[J].物流工程与管理,2009,31(12)
[26]郭轶,周丹.基于TOPSIS/DEA/AHP法的物流配送中心选址问题分析[J].重庆工学院学报(自然科学),2009,23(11)
[27]张方,刘丙午.基于混合整数规划模型的物流配送中心选址优化[J]物流技术,2007,26(11)
[28]刘晓惠,景清泉,霍俊爽.基于0-1型整数规划的配送中心选址[J]中国市场,2009,2
[29]孙会君,高自友.一类有竞争的物流配送中心选址模型[J]交通运输工程学报,2002,2(4)
[30]冯瑞芳,丰超.物流配送中心选址策略研究[J].科学技术与工程,2008,8(12)
[31]吴颖,程赐胜.基于SOM神经网络的民用爆炸物品配送中心选址决策.长沙交通学院学报,2007,23
[32]任春玉,王晓博.基于遗传算法和模糊综合评价法物流配送中心选址研究[J].物流科技,2006,29(10)
[33]王芳.配送中心选址算法研究[D].华中师范大学硕士学位论文,2008
[34]李昌兵,杜茂康.基于混沌免疫进化算法的物流配送中心选址方案[J].商场现代化,2008,3
[35]杜乐乐,燕子宗,李静等。油库选址的最大覆盖模型研究[J].长江大学学报(自然科学版), 2008,5(3)
[36]薛永吉,李旭宏,程日盛.基于仿真技术的物流中心站台数确定方法研究[J].物流技术,2005,6
[37]吕奇光,许茂增.基于交通流分析的物流中心选址仿真研究[J].交通信息与安全,2009,4
[38]张云凤,乔立新,刘伟东.基于仿真技术的配送中心选址方法研究[J].物流技术,2005,12
[39]王家聚.基于重心法的配送中心选址研究及应用[J].长江大学学报(社会科学版),2008,8
[40]杨茂盛,李霞.改进重心法在物流配送中心选址中的应用[J].物流技术,2007,6
[41]刘飞.基于改进的重心法在配送中心选址中的应用[J].物流科技,2009,6
[42]贾争现.物流配送中心规划与设计[M].(第2版).北京:机械工业出版社,2010.1-2
[43]杨双林.配送中心的选址问题研究[D].江苏大学硕士学位论文,2005.
[44]孙景元.现代物流配送中心探讨[J].现代商业,2009,35
[45]徐杰,郑凯,田源等.配送中心选址的影响因素分析及案例[J].北方交通大学学报,2001,
[46]王玲.物流中心物流量预测及实例分析[J].科技信息,2006,9
[47]赵刚.物流运筹[M].成都:四川人民出版社,2002
[48]徐国详.统计预测和决策[M].(第2版).上海:上海财经大学出版社,2005
[49]陈林华,刘秀琴.物流配送中心选址问题研究[J].消费导刊,2009,5
[50]徐贤浩.物流配送中心规划与运作管理[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2007
[51]李佑珍.层次分析法在物流中心选址中的应用[J].青海师范大学学报(自然科学版),2003,2