灾害条件下路网交通运行态势快速分析与评估技术研究
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摘要
近年来,世界各国突发灾害事件发生频繁,诸如美国“9.11”恐怖袭击事件、韩国地铁火灾事件、英国伦敦的公交系统连环爆炸事件、印度洋地震海啸灾害、美国的Ike飓风灾害、日本地震海啸灾害和福岛核电站泄露灾害等。我国也呈现出重特大灾害事故频发的态势,特别是2008年南方雨雪冰冻灾害、四川汶川特大地震灾害、青海玉树地震灾害和2010的洪涝灾害和南方冻雨灾害等,使多个省份的道路交通均受到较大的影响。
随着社会经济的快速发展,人口、建筑、生产、财富等的集中程度不断提高,突发灾害事件发生频率越来越高,危害程度也越来越严重。因此,建立行之有效的灾害应急管理系统就显得尤为重要。道路交通系统是灾害应急管理系统的重要组成部分,负责完成人员疏散、伤员运送和救援人员与物资运输等任务,在灾害应急管理中起到至关重要的作用。同时,道路系统很容易在灾害中遭到破坏,具有显著的灾害易损性,常常成为疏散和救援的薄弱环节。
在灾害条件下,快速、有效的应急交通组织可以显著减少生命和财产损失,有助于将灾害损失降低到最小。灾害条件下路网交通运行态势快速分析和评估技术是交通组织指挥决策的基础,对应急交通组织和指挥的及时性和有效性具有显著影响。
本文以大范围区域路网为研究对象,对灾害条件下路网交通运行态势快速分析和评估技术进行了创新性研究,并取得了如下成果。
(1)提出了路网交通状态远程判别方法
针对交通拥挤远程判别方法较少且已有交通事件远程判别方法判别率低、误判率高、鲁棒性较差的缺点,根据路网所采集交通数据序列的特点,提出了纵向时间序列的概念和两种交通状态新的分类方法,并在此基础上引入局部增益放大原理构建了基于多源交通数据的交通状态远程判别通用算法,根据不同种类交通数据的特点,给出了不同数据源条件下的交通状态远程判别具体算法。研究结果弥补了目前缺少交通拥挤远程判别方法的不足,有效地改善了交通拥挤和交通事件远程判别的效果。
(2)提出了路网交通运行可靠性动态分析方法
针对现有成果无法对道路交通可靠性进行动态评价的不足,在深入分析不同用户在“平”和“灾”两种情况下分析需求的基础上,提出了路网交通运行可靠性的概念,基于多源实测交通数据设计了适合在线分析的交通运行可靠度和交通运行可靠性指数两类可靠性测度特征量。根据路网交通运行可靠性分析的特点,设计了相应的可靠性网络表达方法,为后续研究提供了基础。首次提出OD对间子路网的概念,并分别基于交通运行可靠度和交通运行可靠性指数设计了路段、路径、OD对间子路网和路网交通运行可靠性分析方法,并据此设计了关键路口和路段的快速确定方法。研究成果可以基于实测数据对路网可靠性进行实时动态地分析,为常态与非常态下的交通组织管理提供更有力的决策支持。
(3)提出了灾害对道路交通影响的量化分析方法
针对目前灾害条件下道路交通组织与管理决策缺少量化依据的现实,根据灾害对道路交通的影响程度和影响方式,提出了灾害分类的新方法,并设计了基于GIS的灾害对路网影响范围确定方法、灾害对路网影响持续时间估计方法和受影响道路的通行能力折算方法,在量化描述灾害对路网影响方面进行了有益探索。
(4)提出了灾害条件下道路交通需求预测方法
针对我国缺乏灾害条件下道路交通需求预测模型和我国各地区数据储备情况差异较大的问题,在对灾害条件下交通需求分析范围和交通需求调查数据进行分析的基础上,给出了灾害条件下疏散交通需求的预测流程。分别基于集计数据、分区集计数据和非集计数据设计了灾前疏散交通生成预测模型、灾后疏散交通生成预测模型、灾害条件下疏散交通方式选择预测模型和灾害条件下疏散目的地选择预测模型,设计了灾害条件下疏散时间分布预测模型和灾害条件下疏散交通分配方法,并利用实际调查数据对模型进行了标定和验证,进一步完善了灾害条件下道路交通需求预测的技术方法。
(5)提出了灾害条件下道路交通运行态势快速评估技术
针对已有交通运行态势评估仅以交通事故为对象且模型输入参数较多等问题,根据灾害条件下交通运行态势估计过程中经验知识非常重要且很难通过数学模型进行分析的特点,基于专家系统思想提出了灾害条件下交通运行态势快速评估模型,设计了灾害条件下交通运行态势快速评估专家系统框架,确定了交通运行态势快速评估专家系统知识库的知识来源、知识表示方法和知识存储结构,设计了森林态网状结构作为专家系统知识库的组织结构,构建了与知识库相适应的推理机,包括推理方向、冲突消解策略和知识搜索策略三个方面。研究成果进一步拓展了非常态下路网交通运行态势快速评估技术的适用范围。
木论文中涉及到的许多研究内容、研究方法和研究结论是对灾害条件下交通运行态势快速评估技术研究的探索和补充,可以为今后深入研究灾害条件下交通运行态势评估和交通运行组织技术提供理论和工程参考,同时也可对路网应急交通管理和路网交通监测提供技术支持。
In recent years, disasters have caused major damage to transportation networks in many countries, leading to significant economic disruption. Such as "9.11" terrorists attack in U.S, subway fire incident in South Korea, transit system bombings in London, earthquake cum tsunami disaster in Indian Ocean, Ike hurricane in United States and so on. The disasters in our country also occur frequently, such as snow and ice storms in south of china, wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan province, and Yushu earthquake in Qinghai province and so on. With the rapid development of the social and economic, increase in population, construction, production and wealth increase quickly. The frequency and harmful levels of disasters increase quickly too. So it very important to set up disaster emergency management systems by analyzing the characteristics of disasters that have occurred. Traffic system is a very important part of disaster emergency management systems, using for evacuation and rescue workers or materials transport.
The traffic system is the base of disaster relief and rapid and effective emergency transport organizations can significantly reduce loss of life and property in disaster. The technology for traffic running situation evaluating method under disasters is the base of emergency transport organizations, which directly determine the timeliness and effectiveness of transport organization. It is very important to develop a technology, which can be used for traffic running situation evaluation.
This thesis studied on the analysis and evaluation techniques of traffic situation under disaster situation, the main research works conclude as follows:
(1)Present a remote identification method of network traffic state
According to the characteristics of traffic data collected from network, based on new classification of traffic data series and new definition of traffic state, identification algorithm for traffic congestion and remote identification algorithm for traffic incident are designed. In order to meet the needs of different detector conditions laid, two type of remote identification algorithm for traffic incident are designed.
(2)Present traffic reliability dynamic analysis method of road network
Based on the analysis on the needs of traffic running reliability of road network analysis, traffic running reliability of road network was defined and two reliability indexes are designed. According to the characteristics of traffic reliability analysis, the expressions and storage method of reliability network was designed. The concept of OD pairs network and traffic reliability dynamic analysis method was proposed.
(3) Present a quantitative analysis method of disasters Impact to road network
According to the impact way and impact Level of disasters, the disasters was divided into different parts. Then the disasters impact scope determining method was designed based on GIS, and the disasters impact duration time estimation method was proposed.
(4) Present traffic demand forecasting methods under disaster
Based on the analysis on needs of traffic demand forecasting under disaster, the Implementation process of traffic demand forecasting methods under disaster was designed. The pre-disaster evacuation generation forecasting model, post-disaster evacuation generation forecasting model, Evacuation transportation way selection forecasting model, evacuation destination distribution model was designed.
(5) Present evaluation techniques of traffic situation under disaster
According to the characteristics of traffic situation evaluation, this paper designed the evaluation techniques of traffic situation under disaster based on expert system, proposed the framework of traffic situation evaluation expert system. The sources of knowledge, knowledge representation, knowledge storage structure and inference of expert system were designed.
随着社会经济的快速发展,人口、建筑、生产、财富等的集中程度不断提高,突发灾害事件发生频率越来越高,危害程度也越来越严重。因此,建立行之有效的灾害应急管理系统就显得尤为重要。道路交通系统是灾害应急管理系统的重要组成部分,负责完成人员疏散、伤员运送和救援人员与物资运输等任务,在灾害应急管理中起到至关重要的作用。同时,道路系统很容易在灾害中遭到破坏,具有显著的灾害易损性,常常成为疏散和救援的薄弱环节。
在灾害条件下,快速、有效的应急交通组织可以显著减少生命和财产损失,有助于将灾害损失降低到最小。灾害条件下路网交通运行态势快速分析和评估技术是交通组织指挥决策的基础,对应急交通组织和指挥的及时性和有效性具有显著影响。
本文以大范围区域路网为研究对象,对灾害条件下路网交通运行态势快速分析和评估技术进行了创新性研究,并取得了如下成果。
(1)提出了路网交通状态远程判别方法
针对交通拥挤远程判别方法较少且已有交通事件远程判别方法判别率低、误判率高、鲁棒性较差的缺点,根据路网所采集交通数据序列的特点,提出了纵向时间序列的概念和两种交通状态新的分类方法,并在此基础上引入局部增益放大原理构建了基于多源交通数据的交通状态远程判别通用算法,根据不同种类交通数据的特点,给出了不同数据源条件下的交通状态远程判别具体算法。研究结果弥补了目前缺少交通拥挤远程判别方法的不足,有效地改善了交通拥挤和交通事件远程判别的效果。
(2)提出了路网交通运行可靠性动态分析方法
针对现有成果无法对道路交通可靠性进行动态评价的不足,在深入分析不同用户在“平”和“灾”两种情况下分析需求的基础上,提出了路网交通运行可靠性的概念,基于多源实测交通数据设计了适合在线分析的交通运行可靠度和交通运行可靠性指数两类可靠性测度特征量。根据路网交通运行可靠性分析的特点,设计了相应的可靠性网络表达方法,为后续研究提供了基础。首次提出OD对间子路网的概念,并分别基于交通运行可靠度和交通运行可靠性指数设计了路段、路径、OD对间子路网和路网交通运行可靠性分析方法,并据此设计了关键路口和路段的快速确定方法。研究成果可以基于实测数据对路网可靠性进行实时动态地分析,为常态与非常态下的交通组织管理提供更有力的决策支持。
(3)提出了灾害对道路交通影响的量化分析方法
针对目前灾害条件下道路交通组织与管理决策缺少量化依据的现实,根据灾害对道路交通的影响程度和影响方式,提出了灾害分类的新方法,并设计了基于GIS的灾害对路网影响范围确定方法、灾害对路网影响持续时间估计方法和受影响道路的通行能力折算方法,在量化描述灾害对路网影响方面进行了有益探索。
(4)提出了灾害条件下道路交通需求预测方法
针对我国缺乏灾害条件下道路交通需求预测模型和我国各地区数据储备情况差异较大的问题,在对灾害条件下交通需求分析范围和交通需求调查数据进行分析的基础上,给出了灾害条件下疏散交通需求的预测流程。分别基于集计数据、分区集计数据和非集计数据设计了灾前疏散交通生成预测模型、灾后疏散交通生成预测模型、灾害条件下疏散交通方式选择预测模型和灾害条件下疏散目的地选择预测模型,设计了灾害条件下疏散时间分布预测模型和灾害条件下疏散交通分配方法,并利用实际调查数据对模型进行了标定和验证,进一步完善了灾害条件下道路交通需求预测的技术方法。
(5)提出了灾害条件下道路交通运行态势快速评估技术
针对已有交通运行态势评估仅以交通事故为对象且模型输入参数较多等问题,根据灾害条件下交通运行态势估计过程中经验知识非常重要且很难通过数学模型进行分析的特点,基于专家系统思想提出了灾害条件下交通运行态势快速评估模型,设计了灾害条件下交通运行态势快速评估专家系统框架,确定了交通运行态势快速评估专家系统知识库的知识来源、知识表示方法和知识存储结构,设计了森林态网状结构作为专家系统知识库的组织结构,构建了与知识库相适应的推理机,包括推理方向、冲突消解策略和知识搜索策略三个方面。研究成果进一步拓展了非常态下路网交通运行态势快速评估技术的适用范围。
木论文中涉及到的许多研究内容、研究方法和研究结论是对灾害条件下交通运行态势快速评估技术研究的探索和补充,可以为今后深入研究灾害条件下交通运行态势评估和交通运行组织技术提供理论和工程参考,同时也可对路网应急交通管理和路网交通监测提供技术支持。
In recent years, disasters have caused major damage to transportation networks in many countries, leading to significant economic disruption. Such as "9.11" terrorists attack in U.S, subway fire incident in South Korea, transit system bombings in London, earthquake cum tsunami disaster in Indian Ocean, Ike hurricane in United States and so on. The disasters in our country also occur frequently, such as snow and ice storms in south of china, wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan province, and Yushu earthquake in Qinghai province and so on. With the rapid development of the social and economic, increase in population, construction, production and wealth increase quickly. The frequency and harmful levels of disasters increase quickly too. So it very important to set up disaster emergency management systems by analyzing the characteristics of disasters that have occurred. Traffic system is a very important part of disaster emergency management systems, using for evacuation and rescue workers or materials transport.
The traffic system is the base of disaster relief and rapid and effective emergency transport organizations can significantly reduce loss of life and property in disaster. The technology for traffic running situation evaluating method under disasters is the base of emergency transport organizations, which directly determine the timeliness and effectiveness of transport organization. It is very important to develop a technology, which can be used for traffic running situation evaluation.
This thesis studied on the analysis and evaluation techniques of traffic situation under disaster situation, the main research works conclude as follows:
(1)Present a remote identification method of network traffic state
According to the characteristics of traffic data collected from network, based on new classification of traffic data series and new definition of traffic state, identification algorithm for traffic congestion and remote identification algorithm for traffic incident are designed. In order to meet the needs of different detector conditions laid, two type of remote identification algorithm for traffic incident are designed.
(2)Present traffic reliability dynamic analysis method of road network
Based on the analysis on the needs of traffic running reliability of road network analysis, traffic running reliability of road network was defined and two reliability indexes are designed. According to the characteristics of traffic reliability analysis, the expressions and storage method of reliability network was designed. The concept of OD pairs network and traffic reliability dynamic analysis method was proposed.
(3) Present a quantitative analysis method of disasters Impact to road network
According to the impact way and impact Level of disasters, the disasters was divided into different parts. Then the disasters impact scope determining method was designed based on GIS, and the disasters impact duration time estimation method was proposed.
(4) Present traffic demand forecasting methods under disaster
Based on the analysis on needs of traffic demand forecasting under disaster, the Implementation process of traffic demand forecasting methods under disaster was designed. The pre-disaster evacuation generation forecasting model, post-disaster evacuation generation forecasting model, Evacuation transportation way selection forecasting model, evacuation destination distribution model was designed.
(5) Present evaluation techniques of traffic situation under disaster
According to the characteristics of traffic situation evaluation, this paper designed the evaluation techniques of traffic situation under disaster based on expert system, proposed the framework of traffic situation evaluation expert system. The sources of knowledge, knowledge representation, knowledge storage structure and inference of expert system were designed.
引文
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