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城市住房援助政策评估与仿真实验
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摘要
我国住房制度改革以来城市居民住房自有率和人均面积获得了较大提升,但大城市高房价对城市新增人口和弱势群体产生了明显排斥,夹心层现象也比较严重。这是到2020年实现“住有所居”所面临的重大挑战。为此政府拟大量增加公共住房(经适房和公租房)建设量,试图缓解中低收入者买房负担重、租房难、住房状况改善缓慢等社会问题。但在城市层面,经适房政策目标和实际绩效间存在较大差距。在政策层面,关于公共住房合理供给结构、经适房存废与否和住房补贴方式问题仍存在较大争议,本研究对此在理论上进行了探索,并使用多种方法进行了评测和比较。
     论文首先基于国际惯例提出住房政策的主要目标是支援和帮助中低收入群体获得适宜住房。住房政策中包含住房保障和住房援助两类,“住房保障”以房为本,目标是为最低收入者提供“基本住房”。住房援助以人为本,以支援帮助居民获得可负担的“适宜住房”为目标。住房保障和住房援助在政策目标上存在递进关系,在政策工具上有差异。论文基于问卷调查和文献研究对住房援助进行了定义,将实践中的援助活动分为政策型、项目型、金融型、科技型和非政府型五种类型。论文归纳了我国援助工具集合,发现现有政策和项目都偏向购房援助,忽视了租房援助。根据我国与世界主流的住房模式的异同,总结了适合我国国情的住援经验,提出应加强上位法规制定、产权转移兼顾租售、激励雇主进行住房援助和加快公共住房的市场化、社会化改革的建议。
     囤房现象是加剧大城市住房紧张和结构失衡的主要原因。论文通过解析中高收入家庭囤房的原因,论证了我国长期实行的购房援助政策在家庭高储蓄率心智模式下会导致负面效应,因此住房政策应保持中性,避免造成贫富悬殊和社会阶层严重分化。治理囤房的策略重点是弱化囤房动机、推动市场化的公租房项目、提高存量住房的周转速度和使用效率。
     就经适房是否应取消的问题,论文进行了经适房和公租房的政策对比。通过文献研究,比较了经适房管理政策调整前后的住房产权结构变化,发现政策正在向经适房全封闭运行的方向改革。论文按照绩效、效率、充足性、公平性、回应性和适宜性六项评估标准,将住房援助政策目标分解为具体的子目标。利用民意测评和模糊评价法,对当前试图以公租房取代经适房的政策改革进行了绩效预评估。证明了相同住房财政支出情况下,公租房不宜完全替代经适房。单纯调整援助方式,实行以公租房为主流的政策将难以提高城市住房政策的整体绩效。论文论证了公租房和经适房政策不应偏废,租售两种援助方式各有利弊,应根据市场需求、因地制宜灵活运用。
     针对公共住房管理中的福利错配和公平难题,论文通过7个相似制度案例进行聚类分析,论证了许可权(配额)交易是一种适合市场经济体制的管理工具,可以移植到公共住房领域。通过对武汉市和黄石市(住建部公租房试点城市)的案例研究,结合与其他大城市公租房管理政策的比较,探讨了推行以可交易房券为补贴方式的改革历程和经验教训,论证了住房援助应采用更加市场化的方式来进行,通过合理运用许可权交易进行政府规制可提高援助政策绩效。
     为了评估关键援助政策工具的长期效果,论文通过对购房者的行为调查,将住房和家庭分为了具有共性的若干子类,依据主体行为规则构建了基于Netlogo仿真平台的房地产市场多主体微观仿真模型。该模型包含了商品房、经适房和公租房三个子市场,家庭可根据自身情况进入该三个市场进行交易,公共住房和商品房也可有条件转化。该模型考虑了城市区位特征和活动中心,模拟了家庭综合考虑房价(租)和交通成本的行为模式,集成了家庭的区位选择与租售选择。仿真模型使用武汉市2000~2010年的历史数据进行了标定和有效性校验。
     论文利用仿真模型对已开展和未开展的住房援助政策进行了实验。发现当新增公共住房的总比例少于10%时,对商品住房市场的冲击比较小的,成交量没有明显变化。但公共住房配建比例越大,成交量震动波幅越大,比例越小,震动波幅越小。对仿真城市而言,采用10%的规划配建比例(经适房和公租房各5%),公租房就会在2015年后出现大于15%的空置率,因此该政策应在2015年左右逐步调整或取消。如果保持低于平均住房面积60%的公共住房准入标准,公租房项目在2015年后就会出现明显的空置率上升。如果放宽到低于全市平均面积水平就可以准入,则空置率始终在10%以内。如果要维持10%配建比例时,该市应适当调高准入标准,建议用“9070”标准(即家庭收入标准为90%,人均住房面积标准为70%)取代“8060”标准,这样可维持适度的轮候时间又不至于出现申购不足。通过多次运行仿真还发现经适房比例增大,高收入人群平均家庭总资产降低,最低收入家庭总资产增加,中等收入人群不明显。显示经适房对贫富差距的调节相对有效。房产税是一种包容性的购房援助,但对租房者改善作用不大。提高个人售房所得税率可以增加无房户的租房面积,但对有房困难户没有显著影响。
     论文根据住房援助的基本原理和政策目标,简要回顾了住房制度改革的历史,探讨了住有所居的实现路径,提出了从剩余模式经多元模式向高级普惠模式过渡的构想,并结合我国当前社会结构变动趋势和前述实证研究成果提出了政策建议。
Chinese urban housing reform has been achieved the objective of high home-ownership rate and per capita housing area. However, the high housing prices has become an obvious exclusion to additional population and vulnerable groups, that is the major challenges to fulfill the goals of "all the people can get affordable housing" in2020. Chinese government is constructing copious amounts of affordable housing and trying to relieve the low-income urban households'social problems such as difficult to buying house, renting suitable house and improving housing conditions. However, at the city level, ongoing need of land and capital are difficult to implement, which lead to a big gap between policy objectives and actual performance. Even though the affordable housing and public rental housing policy has been revised for many times, there is still a considerable controversy on property structure design, housing allowance approaches and other key housing policies, it is looking forward to summarizing and innovating in theory and also in policy.
     Based on the stratification and interactive principle of the real estate market, the study argue that the aim of housing policy is to help low and middle-income people to obtain affordable and suitable housing, so basic housing security(in Chinese) is house-oriented housing policy, which offer housing assistance for lowest-income households. Housing assistance is people oriented, the objectives of housing assistance is superior to basic housing security. In the second chapter, based on comparison of housing assistance between the China and other countries, the paper sum up the suitable experience of Chinese housing assistances which are based on the questionnaire and literature in classification (including5categories, that is policy, project, financial, technical and non-government assistance), and found that existing policies and programs in favor of the home ownership assistance, ignoring rental assistance. Paper suggest that senior regulations should be strengthened, the transfer method of public housing would take rental and ownership assistance into account, employers would be encouraged to offer housing assistance and marketization and socialization of public housing would be speed up.
     By making an analysis of hoarding-house phenomenon, the thesis develops the real estate economics discussion of housing characterizes and their derivative effects, studies the necessity and appropriateness of housing assistance, demonstrates housing assistance policy should remain neutral in order to avoid income and housing gap between rich and poor household of society widening.
     This thesis discusses the project design of housing assistance and develops a reasonable performance evaluation standard of housing assistance policy which is based on literature research and questionnaire survey. The viewpoint of reform that affordable housing should be cancelled or be replaced by public rental housing is pre-evaluated. The results indicate that it is inadvisable to do so under the same financial expenditure. Due to the characteristics of housing and housing market, there is both advantages and disadvantage on the aspect of selling and renting affordable housing, the different assistance project should be coexisted and applied flexibly.
     In view of the fairness problem of public housing policy, the thesis argues the micro-market-intervene can be implemented by using house vouchers. The research investigates the housing assistance reform in pilot city, Wuhan and Huangshi City, which arranged by MOHURD, and offers the solution on property right distribution of affordable housing and discusses the key parameters of formulas. It is demonstrated by a similar case that transferable permits (or quotas) is a public management tool which is suitable for the market economy system, and implement of permits trading system will improve performance of housing assistance policy.
     Based on survey of housing behavior, the housing and urban households agents are divided into subclass and database of housing rules have been constructed. The micro-simulation model (programmed on Netlogo simulation platform) is built based on ABM (agent-based-modeling) method. The model includes three sub-market, which are commercial housing, affordable housing and public rental housing market, households can get into and do housing business among three sub-markets. The model integrates the factors of housing location and (rental) price, simulates the actual behavior patterns of families who considering the house prices (or rent) and transport costs at the same time. Based on the statistical data of Wuhan City from year2000to2010, model is setup and its validity has been checked on2010.
     By using this simulation model, the paper detects the effect of long-term housing assistance policy which has been carried out or not done yet. paper find that when new-constructed public housing area less than10%of total housing construction, the impact of commodity housing market is relatively small, the sales volume did not change significantly. The proportion of public housing built with the construction of commercial housing is going up, the greater vibration amplitude of sales volume would be, if the proportion is declining, the vibration amplitude is also decreasing. As for modeling city, under10%construction-ratio planning policy (public rental housing and affordable housing are fifty-fifty), vacancy rate of public rental housing would be greater than15%in the2015, therefore, this policy would to be adjusted or canceled gradually. If the policy which public housing access standards is less than60%of the average housing area have to be keeping to year2015, the vacancy rate of public rental housing project would be rising significantly after2015. If access standards less than the city's average housing area, the vacancy rate is always less than10%. If the10%construction-ratio have to maintained, Wuhan city should be reformed the planning policy to increase the access standards, it is recommended to use "9070" standard (i.e., household income standard less than90%of average income, per capita housing area less than70%of the average standard) to replace the "8060" standard, so maintain an appropriate waiting time and avoid the situation that no enough application or purchase would be possible. By repeating the policy simulation test for many times, this paper also find that with higher construction ratio of affordable housing, the average total net assets of high-income people coming to reduce, on the contrary, low income households going up, and to middle-income people, the effects is not obvious, which can conclude affordable housing can be applied to adjust the gap between the rich and the poor. The property tax is an inclusive tenant based assistance tools, but offer little improvement to renters. The increase in personal income tax can increase average housing area of rigid-Ⅱ type households (no any house), but have no significant effects on the rigid-Ⅰ type households (with house in poor condition). An optimized combination of policy is explored by through several simulations, which provides a reference to housing policy-maker.
     In the conclusion, according to the basic principles and policy objectives of housing assistance policy, there is a brief review of the history and performance of the housing system reform in China. Analytical substance and actual meaning of housing assistance to the achievement of "all the people enjoy the right to the housing" has been proposed considering Chinese current change trend in the social structure. The paper proposes a reform path, which would be from the surplus model to the market balanced benefit model, is designed. Some policy recommendations are put forward also on the paper.
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