基于协同演化的企业发展研究
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摘要
上世纪中叶后,人类社会逐渐步入后工业社会,工业社会中所建立的经济学与管理学理论逐渐崩塌,人们开始探究后工业社会的特征和支持后工业社会的相应的经济学和管理学理论。笔者的导师十多年来一直关注这个问题,并对此问题进行了持续研究。从工业社会开始,不管是大卫·休谟(David Hume)还是亚当·斯密(Adam Smith)所提出的经济学和管理学理论都建立在人性自私的基础上。到马尔萨斯(Thomas Robert Malthus)特别是达尔文(George Darwin)时期,企业与企业之间的关系被完全建立在斗争的基础上,企业唯一的目的就是追求最大利润,企业管理理论把管理者和被管理者完全分割。从法约尔(Henry Fayol)开始,计划—命令——控制这种管理模式支持了工业社会的发展,形成了工业社会的秩序。这种理论的可行性是建立在劳动者强依赖于资本的基础上,从而形成了企业内部的高度的不稳定性。企业与企业之间的你死我活的斗争给人类社会带来了灾难。而在后工业社会,技术与产品不断创新,生产能力不断提高,企业之间的竞争越来越激烈,企业生存与发展的生态环境发生了根本的转变。企业发展的第一要素由资本转变为技术人才；劳动强依赖于资本转变为资本强依赖于人才；消费者消费多样化,要求高质量的产品和服务,并要求企业承担社会责任。那么,后工业社会经济学和管理学究竟应该是什么模式,就成为一个重要的研究课题。
本文认为从工业社会到后工业社会的最主要特征是人类(企业间)从生物斗争转变为协同演化。本文借助生态学、复杂科学、突变和共生理论、系统动力学及微分方程几何理论等原理,从协同演化的生态学观点对企业经营管理进行研究,提出了协同演化的企业管理理论与方法,系统剖析了企业生态系统的内涵与主要特征；建立了企业经营管理协同演化的动态演化模型,利用微分方程几何理论深入研究企业生态系统的动态演化规律和演化机制,从外部协同演化和内部协同演化两个角度研究了企业管理的两个根本问题,即企业内部稳定性及对外环境的适应性。
对于企业内部的稳定性,通过建立协同演化动力学模型,利用微分方程几何理论,从企业体制、企业文化和契约管理下人性两重性互催化的综合控制角度探讨了企业内部稳定性的动态演变过程,严格证明了在存在机会主义行为和人性两重性互催化的条件下,雇佣制度和契约理论在严格的监督管理下均不可能解决“严格意义”下的企业内部不稳定的问题。当没有监督惩罚治理机制时,只依靠文化治理的企业只能达到亚健康稳态；当存在监督惩罚治理机制,不存在守约者向违约者自逆转化时,企业内部存在完全健康、亚健康和病态三个稳态,只有当监控人数与被监控人数满足平方比律关系时,企业才可能达到完全稳定；当守约者存在向违约者转化时,企业可能出现只存在一个亚健康稳态或存在一个亚健康稳态和一个病态稳态两种情况。
对于企业对外环境的适应性问题,本文从两个方面讨论了企业与环境之间的协同演化：一方面是企业与企业之间的协同演化;另一方面是企业与消费者之间的协同演化,并得出了以下结论：
(1)通过建立企业间竞争的协同演化动力学模型,利用微分方程几何理论探讨了企业竞争系统的动态演变过程及其演化结果——突变与共生,通过数值仿真进一步得出竞争的演化结果取决于市场竞争的激烈程度,而且企业的自催化程度将会影响企业的发展。
(2)通过对传统生态学模型作适当修改,建立具有死亡阈值的纯竞争动力学模型和技术开发合作与市场竞争动力学模型,利用微分方程几何理论方法对企业竞争与合作的演化进行动态分析。研究结果表明：对于非强竞争状态下的纯竞争模型,系统演化呈现出四个鞍点,四个稳定结点和一个不稳定结点的复杂状态。四个鞍点的脊线把相平面分为共存、共亡、强者胜(A企业胜或B企业胜)四个区域,并且当且仅当两企业的初始条件大于死亡阈值时,竞争的两个企业实现共存；对于非强竞争状态下的技术开发合作市场竞争模型,系统演化出现三个鞍点,两个稳定结点和两个不稳定结点的复杂情况,并由三个鞍点的脊线把相平面分为共赢,共亡、强者胜(A企业胜或B企业胜)四个区域。在技术开发合作与市场竞争中,只有强强联手才有可能实现共赢,弱弱合作必然走向共亡,强弱合作或者是弱者把强者拖垮走向共亡,或者是强存弱亡,而弱者把强者拖垮走向共亡的可能性更大。
(3)通过研究企业与消费者之间的协同演化,提出协同演化下的企业营销对策是寻找优质市场,即企业能够通过创新努力使消费者满意度趋于最大并能持续获得正利润的市场,并详细论述了消费疲劳这一概念。通过将消费疲劳的强度转化为企业创新竞争的强度,根据消费者与企业的品格特征对消费者与企业进行划分,构建了企业创新竞争下消费者满意度与企业创新努力协同演化的动力学模型,并利用微分方程几何理论对不同品格的消费者和企业所组成的四种不同的市场演化模型进行研究,分析了优质市场的存在性及其存在的条件。研究结果表明,当且仅当消费者为追求时尚型,并且消费者对企业创新努力的反应系数大于消费疲劳系数时,才能实现优质市场。这一结论为企业营销的市场选择、预测分析和行动对策提供了严格的理论依据。
(4)通过建立企业间的协同演化动力学模型,既考虑企业与企业之间的竞争性选择,又考虑消费者的选择作用以及消费者与企业之间的协同效应,利用微分方程几何理论严格证明了市场竞争中“优胜劣汰”并非必然,完全可以“劣胜优汰”。企业胜出或被淘汰并不取决于它是强者或是弱者,而取决于初始优势和协同效应。这否定了通常所说的“市场竞争,优(强)胜劣(弱)汰”定律的必然性,充分说明了市场竞争的复杂性和初始优势与协同效应的重要意义。
本论文认为人性中自私和慷慨的两重性是随着社会发展而演化的。自文明社会出现以来,物质的引诱使自私高度膨胀,争夺和贪婪一度成为社会人性的主流,并引起人类社会的浩劫。人类的人性逐渐向善的慷慨回归,呼唤着社会的责任、和谐与合作。在后工业社会的技术、经济和政治的环境下,合作与协同演化成为必要与必然,企业经营管理是随着社会的生态环境而动态演变的,基于协同演化的生态学思想研究企业经营管理更适于后工业社会的现实。
Human society has entered into post-industrial society gradually since the mid-20th centruy. New economics and management theories appropriate to post-industrial society have been raised and studied by more and more researchers, while those applied in the industrial society have collapsed. My advisor has paid attention to this problem for many years, and studied it continually. Economics and management theories for the industrial society presented by David Hume and Adam Smith were based on the view that human is selfish in nature. In Malthus period, especially Darwin period, the relationship of different enterprises was considered to be based on struggle completely. The only objective of enterprises was to pursue the maximum profits. The enterprise management theory divided managers and the people being managed entirely. The planning----commanding----controlling management pattern, supporting the development of industrial society, has formed the order of industrial society since Fayol. The feasibility of this theory was based on the fact that laborers were strongly depended on capital, which led to the high internal instability of enterprise. The struggle among enterprises caused disaster to human society. In post-industrial society, the technologies and products are continuously innovated. The producing ability is rising rapidly. And the competition among enterprises is more and more intense. Therefore, the ecological environment for the existence and development of enterprises has radically changed. Technical personnel have become the first element of enterprise development instead of capital. The situation where Laborers strongly depended on capital has changed to that where capital strongly depended on talents. The consumpation of consumers has tended to diversification, and they require high quality products and services. The enterprises are requied to take up social responsibility. Then it has become a significant research subject to find the appropriate pattern of the economics and management applied to post-industrial society.
We suggest that the primary character of the change from industrial society to post-industrial society is the change from struggle to co-evolution. Enterprise management is studied from the point of view of co-evolutional ecology in this paper by means of ecology, complex science, catastrophe and symbiosis theory, system dynamics and differential geometry theoretical approach. We have proposed co-evolutional enterprise management theory and methods, analyzed the meaning and characteristics of enterprise ecosystem systemically, constructed the dynamic co-evolution models of the enterprise operation and management, discussed the dynamic evolutionary rules and evolutionary mechanism of enterprise ecosystem by use of differential geometry theoretical approach, and studied two fundamental issues of enterprise management from the point of external co-evolution and internal co-evolution, which are enterprise internal stability and adaptability to the environment.
For the first issue about internal stability, the dynamic evolution of enterprise internal stability is discussed in this article in the view of integrated control for mutual catalytic of dual human nature under the enterprise institutions, culture and contract management, through the construction of dynamic models and the use of differential equation geometry theory, and it is proved that the enterprises would be difficult to come to be complete stability. When there is no supervision and punishment governance mechanisms, enterprises which rely on culture governance can reach sub-health steady state; when there are supervision and punishment governance mechanisms in the enterprises, and contract implementers could not self-reversal convert to defaulters, there are three steady states complete health, sub-health and morbid state for the enterprises. Furthermore, the enterprise can achieve complete stability only when the relation between the number of monitors and persons being monitored is quadratic. If contract implementers could convert to defaulters, there are two cases of stable state for the enterprises, a sub-health steady state, or a sub-health steady-state and a morbid state.
For the second issue about the enterprise adaptation to environment, we have discussed the co-evolution between enterprises and environment from two aspects:the co-evolution between enterprises and enterprises and the co-evolution between enterprises and customers. Several conclusions have been drawn.
(1) We have demonstrated the dynamic evolution process and evolution results ---- catastrophe and symbiosis of firm competition system through constructing the co-evolution dynamic model and using differential geometry theoretical approach. Moreover, we show with a numerical simulation that the evolution results of competition depend on the fierce degree of market competition, and the autocatalysis effect can accelerate the development of firms.
(2) Modifying conventional ecology model, we has constructed pure competition dynamics model and cooperation in technology development but competition in market dynamics model with perdition threshold, and analyzed the evolution of firm competition and cooperation using differential equations geometry theoretical approach. The findings are as follows:there are four saddle points, four stable nodal points and one unstable nodal point for the pure competition system under the condition of non-fierce competition. The phase plane is divided into four regions, which are called as co-existence, synnecrosis, and win of the strong firm, by the ridge lines of four saddle points, and two competitive firms can realize co-existence only when their initial conditions are greater than the perdition threshold. There are three saddle points, two stable nodal points and two unstable nodal points for the system of cooperation in technology development but competition in market under the condition of non-fierce competition. The phase plane is divided into four regions, i.e. win-win, synnecrosis, and win of the strong firm, by the ridge lines of three saddle points. In the model of cooperation in technology development but competition in market, only the win-win state can be realized for the cooperation between strong firms, and cooperation between weak firms must lead to synnecrosis. Cooperation between strong firm and weak firm either makes both firms evolve to synnecrosis, or makes strong firm exist and weak firm die, and the possibility of the synnecrosis is greater.
(3) Studying the co-evolution between enterprises and customers, we have suggested that the marketing strategy of enterprises is to find the quality market, where the firm can make the customer satisfaction tend to be maximum and gain positive profit continually through innovation efforts. To this problem, we propose the concept of "consuming fatigue", which is resulted from the innovation competition between firms and can be taken as the measure of fierce extent of innovation competition. Then we construct a model of the co-evolution between customer satisfaction and firm's innovation efforts, which can be classified into four types based on the characters of customers and firms. It has been proved that the quality market is existent from the analysis of these four different co-evolutionary models by use of differential geometry theoretical approach. However, the quality market can be occurred only when the customers are the type of pursuing fashion, and the response coefficient of customers to firms' innovation efforts is greater than the consuming fatigue coefficient. The conclusion provides theoretical foundation for market selection, forecasting analysis and countermeasures of firms.
(4) We have demonstrated that the "survival of the fittest" is not inevitable, and "the survival of the inferior and the elimination of the superior" can be realized through constructing the co-evolution dynamic model and using differential geometry theoretical approach. In the model, we both consider the competitive selection between firms, the selection of customers and the synergy effect between customers and firms. As a result, the elimination or survival of a firm does not depend on whether it is inferior (weak) or superior (strong), but is associated with the initial advantages and synergy effect. This suggests that "survival of the fittest" is not a reliable maxim, and the initial advantages and synergy effect are important for firms in market competition.
This paper advances the dual human nature that selfishness and generosity evolves with the development of society. Since the emergence of civil society, the lure of material made selfishness to a high degree so that struggle and greed became the mainstream of human nature of the society, which caused the catastrophe of human society. However, nowadays human nature has gradually returned towards generosity, calling for social responsibility, harmony and cooperation. In the technological, economic and political environment of the post-industrial society, cooperation and co-evolution have become necessary and inevitable, and enterprise management evolves dynamically with the social ecological environment, therefore enterprise management research based on the co-evolutional ecology thought is suitable for the future and reality of the post-industrial society.
本文认为从工业社会到后工业社会的最主要特征是人类(企业间)从生物斗争转变为协同演化。本文借助生态学、复杂科学、突变和共生理论、系统动力学及微分方程几何理论等原理,从协同演化的生态学观点对企业经营管理进行研究,提出了协同演化的企业管理理论与方法,系统剖析了企业生态系统的内涵与主要特征；建立了企业经营管理协同演化的动态演化模型,利用微分方程几何理论深入研究企业生态系统的动态演化规律和演化机制,从外部协同演化和内部协同演化两个角度研究了企业管理的两个根本问题,即企业内部稳定性及对外环境的适应性。
对于企业内部的稳定性,通过建立协同演化动力学模型,利用微分方程几何理论,从企业体制、企业文化和契约管理下人性两重性互催化的综合控制角度探讨了企业内部稳定性的动态演变过程,严格证明了在存在机会主义行为和人性两重性互催化的条件下,雇佣制度和契约理论在严格的监督管理下均不可能解决“严格意义”下的企业内部不稳定的问题。当没有监督惩罚治理机制时,只依靠文化治理的企业只能达到亚健康稳态；当存在监督惩罚治理机制,不存在守约者向违约者自逆转化时,企业内部存在完全健康、亚健康和病态三个稳态,只有当监控人数与被监控人数满足平方比律关系时,企业才可能达到完全稳定；当守约者存在向违约者转化时,企业可能出现只存在一个亚健康稳态或存在一个亚健康稳态和一个病态稳态两种情况。
对于企业对外环境的适应性问题,本文从两个方面讨论了企业与环境之间的协同演化：一方面是企业与企业之间的协同演化;另一方面是企业与消费者之间的协同演化,并得出了以下结论：
(1)通过建立企业间竞争的协同演化动力学模型,利用微分方程几何理论探讨了企业竞争系统的动态演变过程及其演化结果——突变与共生,通过数值仿真进一步得出竞争的演化结果取决于市场竞争的激烈程度,而且企业的自催化程度将会影响企业的发展。
(2)通过对传统生态学模型作适当修改,建立具有死亡阈值的纯竞争动力学模型和技术开发合作与市场竞争动力学模型,利用微分方程几何理论方法对企业竞争与合作的演化进行动态分析。研究结果表明：对于非强竞争状态下的纯竞争模型,系统演化呈现出四个鞍点,四个稳定结点和一个不稳定结点的复杂状态。四个鞍点的脊线把相平面分为共存、共亡、强者胜(A企业胜或B企业胜)四个区域,并且当且仅当两企业的初始条件大于死亡阈值时,竞争的两个企业实现共存；对于非强竞争状态下的技术开发合作市场竞争模型,系统演化出现三个鞍点,两个稳定结点和两个不稳定结点的复杂情况,并由三个鞍点的脊线把相平面分为共赢,共亡、强者胜(A企业胜或B企业胜)四个区域。在技术开发合作与市场竞争中,只有强强联手才有可能实现共赢,弱弱合作必然走向共亡,强弱合作或者是弱者把强者拖垮走向共亡,或者是强存弱亡,而弱者把强者拖垮走向共亡的可能性更大。
(3)通过研究企业与消费者之间的协同演化,提出协同演化下的企业营销对策是寻找优质市场,即企业能够通过创新努力使消费者满意度趋于最大并能持续获得正利润的市场,并详细论述了消费疲劳这一概念。通过将消费疲劳的强度转化为企业创新竞争的强度,根据消费者与企业的品格特征对消费者与企业进行划分,构建了企业创新竞争下消费者满意度与企业创新努力协同演化的动力学模型,并利用微分方程几何理论对不同品格的消费者和企业所组成的四种不同的市场演化模型进行研究,分析了优质市场的存在性及其存在的条件。研究结果表明,当且仅当消费者为追求时尚型,并且消费者对企业创新努力的反应系数大于消费疲劳系数时,才能实现优质市场。这一结论为企业营销的市场选择、预测分析和行动对策提供了严格的理论依据。
(4)通过建立企业间的协同演化动力学模型,既考虑企业与企业之间的竞争性选择,又考虑消费者的选择作用以及消费者与企业之间的协同效应,利用微分方程几何理论严格证明了市场竞争中“优胜劣汰”并非必然,完全可以“劣胜优汰”。企业胜出或被淘汰并不取决于它是强者或是弱者,而取决于初始优势和协同效应。这否定了通常所说的“市场竞争,优(强)胜劣(弱)汰”定律的必然性,充分说明了市场竞争的复杂性和初始优势与协同效应的重要意义。
本论文认为人性中自私和慷慨的两重性是随着社会发展而演化的。自文明社会出现以来,物质的引诱使自私高度膨胀,争夺和贪婪一度成为社会人性的主流,并引起人类社会的浩劫。人类的人性逐渐向善的慷慨回归,呼唤着社会的责任、和谐与合作。在后工业社会的技术、经济和政治的环境下,合作与协同演化成为必要与必然,企业经营管理是随着社会的生态环境而动态演变的,基于协同演化的生态学思想研究企业经营管理更适于后工业社会的现实。
Human society has entered into post-industrial society gradually since the mid-20th centruy. New economics and management theories appropriate to post-industrial society have been raised and studied by more and more researchers, while those applied in the industrial society have collapsed. My advisor has paid attention to this problem for many years, and studied it continually. Economics and management theories for the industrial society presented by David Hume and Adam Smith were based on the view that human is selfish in nature. In Malthus period, especially Darwin period, the relationship of different enterprises was considered to be based on struggle completely. The only objective of enterprises was to pursue the maximum profits. The enterprise management theory divided managers and the people being managed entirely. The planning----commanding----controlling management pattern, supporting the development of industrial society, has formed the order of industrial society since Fayol. The feasibility of this theory was based on the fact that laborers were strongly depended on capital, which led to the high internal instability of enterprise. The struggle among enterprises caused disaster to human society. In post-industrial society, the technologies and products are continuously innovated. The producing ability is rising rapidly. And the competition among enterprises is more and more intense. Therefore, the ecological environment for the existence and development of enterprises has radically changed. Technical personnel have become the first element of enterprise development instead of capital. The situation where Laborers strongly depended on capital has changed to that where capital strongly depended on talents. The consumpation of consumers has tended to diversification, and they require high quality products and services. The enterprises are requied to take up social responsibility. Then it has become a significant research subject to find the appropriate pattern of the economics and management applied to post-industrial society.
We suggest that the primary character of the change from industrial society to post-industrial society is the change from struggle to co-evolution. Enterprise management is studied from the point of view of co-evolutional ecology in this paper by means of ecology, complex science, catastrophe and symbiosis theory, system dynamics and differential geometry theoretical approach. We have proposed co-evolutional enterprise management theory and methods, analyzed the meaning and characteristics of enterprise ecosystem systemically, constructed the dynamic co-evolution models of the enterprise operation and management, discussed the dynamic evolutionary rules and evolutionary mechanism of enterprise ecosystem by use of differential geometry theoretical approach, and studied two fundamental issues of enterprise management from the point of external co-evolution and internal co-evolution, which are enterprise internal stability and adaptability to the environment.
For the first issue about internal stability, the dynamic evolution of enterprise internal stability is discussed in this article in the view of integrated control for mutual catalytic of dual human nature under the enterprise institutions, culture and contract management, through the construction of dynamic models and the use of differential equation geometry theory, and it is proved that the enterprises would be difficult to come to be complete stability. When there is no supervision and punishment governance mechanisms, enterprises which rely on culture governance can reach sub-health steady state; when there are supervision and punishment governance mechanisms in the enterprises, and contract implementers could not self-reversal convert to defaulters, there are three steady states complete health, sub-health and morbid state for the enterprises. Furthermore, the enterprise can achieve complete stability only when the relation between the number of monitors and persons being monitored is quadratic. If contract implementers could convert to defaulters, there are two cases of stable state for the enterprises, a sub-health steady state, or a sub-health steady-state and a morbid state.
For the second issue about the enterprise adaptation to environment, we have discussed the co-evolution between enterprises and environment from two aspects:the co-evolution between enterprises and enterprises and the co-evolution between enterprises and customers. Several conclusions have been drawn.
(1) We have demonstrated the dynamic evolution process and evolution results ---- catastrophe and symbiosis of firm competition system through constructing the co-evolution dynamic model and using differential geometry theoretical approach. Moreover, we show with a numerical simulation that the evolution results of competition depend on the fierce degree of market competition, and the autocatalysis effect can accelerate the development of firms.
(2) Modifying conventional ecology model, we has constructed pure competition dynamics model and cooperation in technology development but competition in market dynamics model with perdition threshold, and analyzed the evolution of firm competition and cooperation using differential equations geometry theoretical approach. The findings are as follows:there are four saddle points, four stable nodal points and one unstable nodal point for the pure competition system under the condition of non-fierce competition. The phase plane is divided into four regions, which are called as co-existence, synnecrosis, and win of the strong firm, by the ridge lines of four saddle points, and two competitive firms can realize co-existence only when their initial conditions are greater than the perdition threshold. There are three saddle points, two stable nodal points and two unstable nodal points for the system of cooperation in technology development but competition in market under the condition of non-fierce competition. The phase plane is divided into four regions, i.e. win-win, synnecrosis, and win of the strong firm, by the ridge lines of three saddle points. In the model of cooperation in technology development but competition in market, only the win-win state can be realized for the cooperation between strong firms, and cooperation between weak firms must lead to synnecrosis. Cooperation between strong firm and weak firm either makes both firms evolve to synnecrosis, or makes strong firm exist and weak firm die, and the possibility of the synnecrosis is greater.
(3) Studying the co-evolution between enterprises and customers, we have suggested that the marketing strategy of enterprises is to find the quality market, where the firm can make the customer satisfaction tend to be maximum and gain positive profit continually through innovation efforts. To this problem, we propose the concept of "consuming fatigue", which is resulted from the innovation competition between firms and can be taken as the measure of fierce extent of innovation competition. Then we construct a model of the co-evolution between customer satisfaction and firm's innovation efforts, which can be classified into four types based on the characters of customers and firms. It has been proved that the quality market is existent from the analysis of these four different co-evolutionary models by use of differential geometry theoretical approach. However, the quality market can be occurred only when the customers are the type of pursuing fashion, and the response coefficient of customers to firms' innovation efforts is greater than the consuming fatigue coefficient. The conclusion provides theoretical foundation for market selection, forecasting analysis and countermeasures of firms.
(4) We have demonstrated that the "survival of the fittest" is not inevitable, and "the survival of the inferior and the elimination of the superior" can be realized through constructing the co-evolution dynamic model and using differential geometry theoretical approach. In the model, we both consider the competitive selection between firms, the selection of customers and the synergy effect between customers and firms. As a result, the elimination or survival of a firm does not depend on whether it is inferior (weak) or superior (strong), but is associated with the initial advantages and synergy effect. This suggests that "survival of the fittest" is not a reliable maxim, and the initial advantages and synergy effect are important for firms in market competition.
This paper advances the dual human nature that selfishness and generosity evolves with the development of society. Since the emergence of civil society, the lure of material made selfishness to a high degree so that struggle and greed became the mainstream of human nature of the society, which caused the catastrophe of human society. However, nowadays human nature has gradually returned towards generosity, calling for social responsibility, harmony and cooperation. In the technological, economic and political environment of the post-industrial society, cooperation and co-evolution have become necessary and inevitable, and enterprise management evolves dynamically with the social ecological environment, therefore enterprise management research based on the co-evolutional ecology thought is suitable for the future and reality of the post-industrial society.
引文
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