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陕西农村正规金融发展区域差异研究
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摘要
区域金融是大国经济金融发展的一种客观现象,由于自然、经济、社会和技术条件的地域差异,金融运行和发展呈现出明显的地域特征。中国是经济社会发展区域差异特征显著的国家之一,经济改革和发展正处于关键时期,经济结构急剧变动,这种变动也体现在区域金融发展的差异上。对区域金融时空运动规律进行探讨,研究区域金融发展差异的发展趋势和相关条件,对区域经济发展乃至整体经济健康运行具有重要意义。此外,随着农村经济的不断发展,农村金融体制改革步伐的加快,农村经济结构的变动过程中,农村经济发展的关键性要素农村金融发展中面临的四大问题之一即是地区发展的不平衡,金融条块分割现象严重。农村金融作为区域金融的重要组成部分,也是影响农村经济发展的关键要素,将区域差异研究的视角转向农村金融领域具有重要意义。
     位于欠发达地区的陕西,从北到南形成了陕北高原、关中平原、秦巴山地三个地貌区,独特的地理特征决定了区域经济金融发展的差异。陕西正处于从传统农业向现代农业过渡时期,“三农”呈现的特征之一即是区域差异性,不仅区域农村经济特点鲜明,而且区域农村金融发展差异特征也十分显著,以该地区农村金融发展的区域差异为研究对象,不仅能够丰富区域金融的研究内容,而且可以为如何从金融视角探求欠发达地区农村经济增长提供理论支撑。
     基于上述研究背景和现实情况,研究选取陕西农村正规金融发展的区域差异为研究对象,充分运用金融学、金融地理学、宏观经济学和发展经济学等多学科知识体系,建构涵盖数量和质量的农村金融发展指标体系,从区域间(各市间)和区域内(县域间)两个层面对陕西农村正规金融发展区域差异的表现进行准确衡量,探索其形成机理和原因,分析其长期变动趋势,对其现存差距的合理性进行判断,为推动陕西农村正规金融发展,实现区域内金融均衡提供具有可操作性的政策建议。
     运用按照这一逻辑关系,论文研究内容主要如下:
     第一章,导论。主要阐述选题的背景、意义、国内外已有研究的现状,论文研究的思路、方法及可能的创新之处。
     第二章,基于农村经济主体金融需求的视角构建了农村金融发展决定要素的理论框架,将农村金融发展视为系统内要素(农村经济主体的金融需求、农村正规金融供给主体产品和服务供给能力、创新能力)和外部动力要素(农村经济发展水平、政府行为以及农村金融生态环境)共同推动的结果,是农村金融系统不断升级发展的过程。基于这些要素衍生出决定农村金融发展区域差异的理论模型,认为农村金融发展区域差异是外生机制(制度要素和区域固有要素等)和内生机制(农村经济水平和创新能力)共同作用的结果。
     第三章,陕西农村正规金融发展的区域差异的表现。建立包含数量和质量的农村正规金融发展衡量指标体系,从区域间(各市间)和区域内(县域间)两个层面对农村正规金融发展的规模、速度进行比较分析,结果显示陕北贷款规模近年远超过商洛和渭南地区,区域涉农贷款规模差距不断拉大。农村正规金融机构呈现出农业银行脱农现象严重,农村信用社一家独大,邮政储蓄以及其他新型农村金融机构发展不足的特征。农村金融发展水平相对差异分析认为陕西农村正规金融差异呈现“U”型特征,且区域内差异远远大于区域间差异。其中,榆林农村金融发展县域间差异1997-2009年呈递增态势,渭南和商洛呈“U”型特征。对陕西农村正规金融发展与经济增长间关系进行判断,结果显示短期内存在单向促进关系,长期存在阻碍现象。陕西农村正规金融支农绩效的差异比较中,渭南地区最高,商洛次之,榆林最低。
     第四章,陕西农村正规金融发展区域差异的成因解释。基于协整检验和夏普里值回归分解方法,对陕西整体和样本地区农村正规金融发展区域差异形成的原因进行分析。虽然在不同区域影响区域农村金融发展差异的要素有所差异,但区域固有要素(耕地、劳动力等要素)的影响最为重要,经济发展水平、金融创新能力以及体制要素对区域差异形成的重要性因地区不同而出现差异。
     第五章,农村正规金融发展区域差异变动趋势分析。陕西整体、榆林和商洛农村正规金融发展县域间差异呈现异化现象,而渭南农村正规金融发展区域差异未来会呈现缩小趋势。随着区域经济、教育水平、创新能力以及政策干预等决定区域农村金融的要素不断收敛,区域农村金融发展会趋向收敛。σ收敛检验结果显示各地区σ收敛呈现明显的阶段性和区域性,2003年之前不论整体还是县域间都具有σ收敛,之后仅渭南地区有σ收敛,绝对β收敛结果显示榆林地区农村金融发展一直呈现扩散状态,其他地区检验结果与σ收敛基本一致。
     第六章,陕西农村正规金融发展区域差异的合理性判断。陕西整体农村正规金融发展区域差异较长的时期内会持续存在,不同区域内农村正规金融发展呈现出不同的特点。基于对日益增长的金融需求满足度和农村金融与农村经济的协调度视角对陕西农村金融发展区域差异的趋势进行判断,结果显示农村正规金融发展区域差异的拉大是农村经济金融发展过程中的正常现象,是合理的,个别地区农村正规金融发展区域收敛是农村正规金融发展低水平均衡的体现,长期可能不利于经济发展。
     第七章,实现农村金融发展区域均衡发展对策建议。针对陕西农村金融发展滞后和区域差异长期存在的现状,提出了完善农村金融体系、提高农村金融发展水平,促进农村金融与农村经济协调发展以及调控农村金融发展区域差异的对策建议。
Regional finance is an objective phenomenon in financial development process of bigcountry economy, due to the natural conditions, economic conditions, social and technicalconditions,financial operation and development show a significant geographical features. Inthe crucial period of reform and development, Chinese economic structure changesquickly,China is already one of largest of the the regional differences of economic and socialdevelopment,which is reflected in the differences of regional financial development, thenexploring the spatial and temporal motion law of the regional financial and studying on therelative conditions and development trends of regional financial difference, which have asignificant for regional economic development,even the overall economic health of running.So is the rural finance, as the important component of regional finance, and the key factor torural economy development, it has a significant to study on the regional difference of ruralfinancial development.
     In the less developed regions of Shaanxi, unique geographical features, from north tosouth, forming three landform areas such as Northern Shaanxi plateau, Guanzhong Plain,Qinba mountain, which determine the differences of regional economic and financialdevelopment. In transition period from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture, regionaldifferences is an important feature of "Agriculture-countryside-farmer” issues, including notonly the distinct characteristics of the regional rural economy,but also the significant ofdevelopment difference of regional rural financial.To choose regional financial developmentdifference in Shaanxi as the objective, to explore the regional differences, causes, changetrends and economic impacts, which are not only to enrich the research content of regionalfinance, but also to provide theoretical support on rural economic growth in underdevelopedareas from the finance point of views.
     Based on the above research background and current situation, the dissertation takes theShaanxi rural financial development regional differences as the research objective, makes fulluse of finance, financial geography, macrioeconomics and development economics and so on,building rural financial development indicator system through both quantity and quality of theuse of statistical methods to accurately measure Shaanxi rural financial development difference, exploring its formation mechanism and reasons, analyzing its long-term trend andfluctuation characteristics and the function of economic development, which providingoperable policy suggestion for promoting the Shaanxi rural financial development, andcontractible area difference.
     According to this logic, the content of this dissertation is as following:
     The first chapter is introduction. This chapter mainly elaborates the background,significance, domestic and foreign research situation, research ideas, methods and the possibleinnovation and shortage of research.
     The second chapter is the theoretical framework. Based on literature review, in theperspective of the financial demand from rural economy participants, we built the theoreticalframework including rural financial development decision elements, took the rural financialdevelopment as system development process, which is the essential elements within thesystem (rural financial demand supply, formal finance product and service supply ability,innovation ability), and external power (rural economics development level, governmentbehavior and rural financial ecology environment). And then we tried to explain the regionaldifferences of rural finance development from exogenous mechanisms (elements of thesystem and regional natural factors) and endogenous mechanism (rural economy level andinnovation ability).
     The third chapter, what are the regional differences of formal rural financial developmentin Shaanxi.To establish the formal financial development indicator system with quality andquantitiy,then the comparsion analysis of development scale and speed show that in recentyears, the size of the loan in Yulin exceeds Shangluo and Weinan regions, which lead to thegradually big gap of regional agricultural loan scale.Rural formal financial institutionsshowed agricultural bank far away for farming seriously, the rural credit cooperatives(RCC) isa single large formal financial institutions, postal savings and other new types of ruralfinancial institutions development insufficient.The analysis of rural financial developmentlevel regional difference showed that Shaanxi rural formal finance difference presented" U"feature, and the inner-regional difference was greater than the inter-regional difference.duringthe comparing the difference,in Yulin county, rural financial development regional differenceshowed an increasing trend between1997-2009, the Weinan and Shangluo showed "U" typefeature. The judgment on Shaanxi rural financial development and economic growth relation,which showed that in the short term rural financial development promoted one-way economicgrowth, but in long-term existence of the blocking phenomenon between them. Compared tothe performance differences of Shaanxi rural formal finance supporting rural economic, thehighest performance is in Weinan,the second one is Yulin, the lowest region is Shangluo.
     The fourth chapter is to study on the interpretation of the differences of rural financialdevelopment regional in Shaanxi. Based on the cointegration test and shapely valuedecomposition method,which tried to analyze the forming reasons of overall and sample areasof formal financial development difference in Shaanxi.Although elements effecting onregional rural financial development difference is vary in different area, the influence ofregional natural elements (farmland, labor) are most important, other elements such as thelevel of economic development, financial innovation and institutional factors on regionaldifferences in the formation are also very important.
     The fifth chapter is to analyze the convergence and the wave characteristics of formalrural financial development regional difference in Shaanxi. Shaanxi,Yulin and Shangluo ruralfinancial development regional difference presented the alienation phenomenon,but inWeinan, rural financial development regional difference in the future will show a narrowingtrend. With the determinant factors of regional financial of regional economy, education,innovation ability and policy interventions and so on are gradually convergence, the regionalrural financial development trend is in convergence. Now, the test results showed that theconvergence region presents apparent stage and regional, before2003, all regions presenting σconvergence, after2003only Weinan has σ convergence. Absolute β convergence resultsshow Yulin rural financial development has been rendered diffusion situation, results of otherareas are consistent with σ convergence. In a longer period of time, Shaanxi rural financialdevelopment regional differences will continue to exist, and "measurable difference" problemof rural formal financial development should be considered from qualitative and quantitativeangles.
     The sixth chapter is the rationality judgement on Shaanxi rural financial developmentregional differences. Shaanxi rural financial development regional differences will continue toexist, and in different regions the formal rural financial development has differentcharacteristics. Based on the growing financial needs satisfaction and coordination degree ofrural finance and rural economy, we tried to judge Shaanxi rural financial developmentregional differences tendency. The results show the regional disparity of formal rural financialdevelopment of rural is in the process of economic and financial development normalphenomenon, and is reasonable, but rural financial development regional convergence islow-level balanced embodiment, long-term and may not conducive to economicdevelopment。
     The seventh chapter is countermeasure proposal of the development of rural finance andregional balanced rural finance development. In the light of Shaanxi rural financialdevelopment lags behind and the situation of regional differences in long-term, we try to propose a perfect rural financial system, to improve the rural financial development level,coordinate rural finance and rural economic development and to regulate regional differences.
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