多边贸易体制的理论与实践研究
摘要
当前国内外学界对世界贸易体制的研究主要基于国际法学角度,国际贸易体系作为国际贸易研究的三大方向之一,其研究范式理应与传统国际经济学的研究框架保持一致。20世纪90年代后期,多边贸易体制经济学研究范式的提出,使得对世界贸易体制的研究“回归”到国际经济学研究框架中,初步实现了经济学与国际法学的交叉融合。
本文的逻辑结构主要分三个层次展开,一是基于经济学研究范式对多边贸易体制的理论基础、制度特征、多边贸易谈判的三大特征等进行分析;二是对多边贸易体制的实践与绩效进行考察,并从多哈发展议程视角剖析多边贸易体制的深层危机;三是在多边贸易体制框架下探讨中国参与WTO的绩效与应对策略。
首先通过对多边贸易体制不同研究范式的比较,重点阐述了多边贸易体制经济学研究范式的基本框架,分析了该体制的内在逻辑,回答了贸易协定存在的目的,即各国在特定目标函数下,通过制度化的合作博弈(贸易协定),提供一个能避免陷入由贸易条件变化导致的“囚徒困境”,改善整体福利水平的制度框架。并对多边贸易体制的主要制度特征进行进一步的扩展分析。在此基础上,从博弈的角度,指出多边贸易体制的规则导向、国际贸易利益分配和成员实力的非对称性,决定了多边贸易谈判过程是一个动态的竞争又合作的博弈过程,分析了多边贸易谈判的三个明显特征:基于演化的共赢性博弈;基于最优关税组合的多层合作博弈和一揽子议题谈判下的市场准入交换博弈。这也是本文的主要创新点之一。
其次,对多边贸易体制的实践与绩效的考察,基本证实了多边贸易体制经济学研究范式得出的结论:虽然“多哈发展议程”的进展中遇到一些挫折,突显多边贸易体制的深层危机,但并非意味着多边贸易体制的毁灭;战后世界经济发展的实践证明,一个具有权威的、合理的多边贸易体制是符合各方利益的。本文试图从多哈发展议程视角分析多边贸易体制的困境,为多边贸易体制的健康发展寻找改革的方向。
最后,基于上述对多边贸易体制的理论和实践的认识,本文认为,随着我国过渡期基本结束,作为WTO成员和一个发展中的贸易大国,中国在推动多边贸易体制发展与和参与多边贸易体制中应有自己的立场和作为,必须在维护中国主权和国家利益、进一步开放市场和促进改革的前提下,积极推动多边贸易体制的改革和发展,享受多边贸易自由化的成果,并从多边贸易体制、区域经济合作、国内贸易改革三个方面提出相关的对策建议。
本文的主要结论是,多边贸易体制制度安排的内在机理是实现互惠性的合作共赢博弈,也是目前为止最理想的国际贸易体制,其所代表的共赢贸易理念是在国家界限存在情况下,国际贸易理论演化的最高阶段,一个具有权威的、合理的多边贸易体制是符合各方利益的。多边贸易体制的实践和绩效表明,在多边贸易体制发展进程中出现的一些困境和挫折是正常的现象,符合事物发展的客观规律,各成员方只有积极推动多边贸易体制的改革和发展,才能更好地享受多边贸易自由化带来的成果。
Currently, the domestic and foreign academic world study the world trade system mainly based on the aspect of international law. Being one of the three major aspects of international trade research, the research model of international trade system should be in accordance with the traditional international economics research frame. In the late 1990s, with the raising of the research model of the economic of multilateral trading system, the research of the world trade system "comes back" to the international economics research frame, and the goal of combining the economic with the international law has been reached initially.
This thesis, through the comparison of different research model of multilateral trade system, mainly presents the idea of research model of the economic of multilateral trading system, analyses its internal logic, provides the answer to the purpose of the existence of trade agreement—every country under the specific government objective function, through institution cooperation game (trade agreement), prevent the government from falling into "the convict difficult position" which is caused by the changes of trade agreement, and carries on the further analysis to the leading feature of multilateral trading system. Based on the above statement, from the aspect of game, the paper points out that the asymmetry in the guidance of the rule of multilateral trading system, the division of international trade profit and the member's strength have determined that the multilateral trade negotiation process is a dynamic game process which competes and cooperates unceasingly, analyses the three obvious features of the multilateral trade negotiation: win-win games based on the evolution; multi-layered cooperation games based on the most superior customs duty combination and the exchange games of market access under wholesale negotiations.
The conclusion of the research model of the economic of multilateral trading system has been confirmed by the inspection of the practice and the achievement of multilateral trading system. Although "Doha developing agenda" comes across some setbacks, underlining the deep crisis of multilateral trading system, it doesn't mean the deconstruction of multilateral trading system. The practice of the economic development in the postwar world has proved that: an authoritative and reasonable multilateral trading system benefits all quarters. This article analyzes the difficult position of multilateral trading system from the aspect of Doha round, attempting to find a way for the reform of the healthy development of multilateral trading system.
Based on the above understanding of the theory and the practice of multilateral trading, the writer of this paper believes that with the end of our country's "compulsory redemption-period", as one member of WTO and a developing trading country, China must have its own standpoint and the action in promoting the development of multilateral trading system and participating multilateral trading system. China should promote the reform and development of multilateral trading system, further open the market and devote itself to the domestic reform and enjoy the achievement of multilateral trade liberalization on the stage of defending Chinese sovereignty and national interest. Finally, the paper proposes some relative suggestions.
本文的逻辑结构主要分三个层次展开,一是基于经济学研究范式对多边贸易体制的理论基础、制度特征、多边贸易谈判的三大特征等进行分析;二是对多边贸易体制的实践与绩效进行考察,并从多哈发展议程视角剖析多边贸易体制的深层危机;三是在多边贸易体制框架下探讨中国参与WTO的绩效与应对策略。
首先通过对多边贸易体制不同研究范式的比较,重点阐述了多边贸易体制经济学研究范式的基本框架,分析了该体制的内在逻辑,回答了贸易协定存在的目的,即各国在特定目标函数下,通过制度化的合作博弈(贸易协定),提供一个能避免陷入由贸易条件变化导致的“囚徒困境”,改善整体福利水平的制度框架。并对多边贸易体制的主要制度特征进行进一步的扩展分析。在此基础上,从博弈的角度,指出多边贸易体制的规则导向、国际贸易利益分配和成员实力的非对称性,决定了多边贸易谈判过程是一个动态的竞争又合作的博弈过程,分析了多边贸易谈判的三个明显特征:基于演化的共赢性博弈;基于最优关税组合的多层合作博弈和一揽子议题谈判下的市场准入交换博弈。这也是本文的主要创新点之一。
其次,对多边贸易体制的实践与绩效的考察,基本证实了多边贸易体制经济学研究范式得出的结论:虽然“多哈发展议程”的进展中遇到一些挫折,突显多边贸易体制的深层危机,但并非意味着多边贸易体制的毁灭;战后世界经济发展的实践证明,一个具有权威的、合理的多边贸易体制是符合各方利益的。本文试图从多哈发展议程视角分析多边贸易体制的困境,为多边贸易体制的健康发展寻找改革的方向。
最后,基于上述对多边贸易体制的理论和实践的认识,本文认为,随着我国过渡期基本结束,作为WTO成员和一个发展中的贸易大国,中国在推动多边贸易体制发展与和参与多边贸易体制中应有自己的立场和作为,必须在维护中国主权和国家利益、进一步开放市场和促进改革的前提下,积极推动多边贸易体制的改革和发展,享受多边贸易自由化的成果,并从多边贸易体制、区域经济合作、国内贸易改革三个方面提出相关的对策建议。
本文的主要结论是,多边贸易体制制度安排的内在机理是实现互惠性的合作共赢博弈,也是目前为止最理想的国际贸易体制,其所代表的共赢贸易理念是在国家界限存在情况下,国际贸易理论演化的最高阶段,一个具有权威的、合理的多边贸易体制是符合各方利益的。多边贸易体制的实践和绩效表明,在多边贸易体制发展进程中出现的一些困境和挫折是正常的现象,符合事物发展的客观规律,各成员方只有积极推动多边贸易体制的改革和发展,才能更好地享受多边贸易自由化带来的成果。
Currently, the domestic and foreign academic world study the world trade system mainly based on the aspect of international law. Being one of the three major aspects of international trade research, the research model of international trade system should be in accordance with the traditional international economics research frame. In the late 1990s, with the raising of the research model of the economic of multilateral trading system, the research of the world trade system "comes back" to the international economics research frame, and the goal of combining the economic with the international law has been reached initially.
This thesis, through the comparison of different research model of multilateral trade system, mainly presents the idea of research model of the economic of multilateral trading system, analyses its internal logic, provides the answer to the purpose of the existence of trade agreement—every country under the specific government objective function, through institution cooperation game (trade agreement), prevent the government from falling into "the convict difficult position" which is caused by the changes of trade agreement, and carries on the further analysis to the leading feature of multilateral trading system. Based on the above statement, from the aspect of game, the paper points out that the asymmetry in the guidance of the rule of multilateral trading system, the division of international trade profit and the member's strength have determined that the multilateral trade negotiation process is a dynamic game process which competes and cooperates unceasingly, analyses the three obvious features of the multilateral trade negotiation: win-win games based on the evolution; multi-layered cooperation games based on the most superior customs duty combination and the exchange games of market access under wholesale negotiations.
The conclusion of the research model of the economic of multilateral trading system has been confirmed by the inspection of the practice and the achievement of multilateral trading system. Although "Doha developing agenda" comes across some setbacks, underlining the deep crisis of multilateral trading system, it doesn't mean the deconstruction of multilateral trading system. The practice of the economic development in the postwar world has proved that: an authoritative and reasonable multilateral trading system benefits all quarters. This article analyzes the difficult position of multilateral trading system from the aspect of Doha round, attempting to find a way for the reform of the healthy development of multilateral trading system.
Based on the above understanding of the theory and the practice of multilateral trading, the writer of this paper believes that with the end of our country's "compulsory redemption-period", as one member of WTO and a developing trading country, China must have its own standpoint and the action in promoting the development of multilateral trading system and participating multilateral trading system. China should promote the reform and development of multilateral trading system, further open the market and devote itself to the domestic reform and enjoy the achievement of multilateral trade liberalization on the stage of defending Chinese sovereignty and national interest. Finally, the paper proposes some relative suggestions.
引文
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[1]法理学(jurisprudence)是关于法律观念和法律理论的学说。法理学作为一种思想方法,是在不同学术流派的批评性思考中发展的,它使人们从有关法的观念的哲学层次上来理解法律如何规范社会制度和个人行为。
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[1]肖恩·D·默菲编著:《美国国际法的当代实践》(Contemporary Practice of the United States Relating to International Law,Sean D.Murphy ed.),《美国国际法杂志》第94卷,第375页(2000年);马克·L·莫维塞西恩:《主权、守则和世界贸易组织:最高法院复审史的教训》,《密歇概国际法杂志》第20卷,第779页。
[2]在国际范围内,“削高就低”是一种国际竞争加速导致的监管标准的不断降低。参见弗雷德里克·M·艾博特:《国际贸易和社会福利:新议程》,《比较劳动法杂志》第17卷,第368页。
[1]张军旗.多边贸易关系中的国家主权问题[M].北京:人民法院出版社,2006年,P119-123。
[2]事实上,试图将现实中经济活动领域与政治活动领域分开,是徒劳的和失败的。财富和权力是互补的,在一定程度上是合二为一,本文对国际政治学范式的界定,主要在以权力为基础的博弈论分析的指引下,从国际机制研究多边贸易体制。
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[5]约翰·H·杰克逊.世界贸易体制:国际经济关系的法律与政策[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2001,P121。
[1]张斌.多边贸易体制的变迁:一个国际机制理论的解释[J].世界经济研究,2003,(7),P50-55。
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[1]Mill,John Stuart.1844.Essays on Some Unsettled Questions of Political Economy.London:Parker.Torrens,Robert.1844.The Budget:On Commercial Policy and Colonial Policy.London:Smith,Elder.
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[1]如果一国关税的提高不改变国内消费者的负担,那么,关税的成本必然是由国外出口商承担,这时国际市场价格的变动依然能提高高关税国家的福利,这种福利的提高是通过利益的分配来实现的。参见雷达.从经济学角度看世界贸易体系[J].中国人民大学学报,2005,(1)。
[2]陈琛.国际贸易体制的理论综述[J].收录于黄建忠、张明志、郑甘澍主编.国际经贸理论与实践[M].厦门:厦门大学出版社,2007年,P67-74。
[1]雷达.从经济学角度看世界贸易体系[J].中国人民大学学报,2005,(1)。
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[1]Kyle Bagwell,Robert W.Staiger.世界贸易体系经济学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005年,P14-46,P209-213。盛斌.WTO体制、规则与谈判:一个博弈论的经济分析[J].世界经济.2001年第12期。本文的讨论集中于采用传统经济学方法和政治-经济方法的研究.
[1]刘光溪.共赢性博弈——多边贸易体制的国际政治经济学分析[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2007年,P1。
[1]庄惠明、黄建忠.国际贸易理论的演化:维度、路径与逻辑[J].《国际经贸理论与实践》[M].厦门:厦门大学出版社,P2-10。
[1]如新贸易主义理论中寡头博弈的帕累托最优结果产生于该产业达到了某种共谋的结果并且产业总利润实现最大化之时。从社会整体的角度来看,这显然不是有效的。
[2]刘光溪.共赢性博弈——多边贸易体制的国际政治经济学分析[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2007年,P125-147。
[1]刘光溪.共赢性博弈——多边贸易体制的国际政治经济学分析[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2007年,P125-147。
[1]这是因为按照三国模型,外国1在进口商品1时的关税比外国2要低,导致本国向外国2(1)的出口减少(增加),这提高了本国向外国2出口商品1的价格,因此外国2的贸易条件恶化了。
[2]但赔偿措施被批评为“趋向于保守”,因为这些赔偿通常是“停止和打住”的命令,而非对违规行为的处罚(Hoekman and Kostecki,1995)。
[1]WTO例外和保障措施主要包括GATT1994第20条“一般例外”、第21条“安全例外”、第12条“国际收支例外”、第8条“取消数量限制例外”、第14条“非歧视原则例外”、第15条“外汇平衡例外”、第24条“关税同盟例外”以及第19条“紧急措施例外”,最后再加上《保障措施协议》。
[2]WTO对发展中成员差别待遇主要体现在GATT1994第18条“经济发展例外”、第四部分“贸易与发展”以及其他WTO协议中,如TRIPS、TRIMS和GATS等。
[3]刘光溪.共赢性博弈——多边贸易体制的国际政治经济学分析[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2007年,P138-139。
[1]Rajiv Satin,'Simply play in the Prisoner's Dilemma',Journal of Economic Behavior &Organization,Vol.40(1999) 105-113。
[2]海闻、沈琪.贸易保护、演化博弈与福利分析[J].第五届中国经济学年会论文,2005年。
[1]侯云先、林文.规划与博弈混合多层次模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2003年第7期。本文在该文的基础上对模型进行了扩展分析。
[1]联合国贸易与发展会议/世界贸易组织国际贸易中心、英联邦秘书处编著:《WTO企业指南》(Business Guide to the World Trading System),北京:企业管理出版社,第1页。
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[1]薛荣久.世界贸易组织(WTO)教程[M].北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社,2003年。
[1]Hoekman,Bernard,(2000),"The Next Round of Services Negotiations:Identifying Prior ities and Options," Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Review 82,pp31-47。
[1]在一个集团范围内,集团收益是公共性的,即集团中的每一个成员都能共同且均等地分享它,而不管它是否为之付出了成本,集团收益近种性质形成了集团成员的“搭便车”行为,集团越是大,分享收益的成员越多,为实现集体利益而进行活动的成员分享份额越小。相反,小集体之所以有效率,是因为成员少,因而集体决策的谈判过程费用较低,同时由于小集体透明度高,容易形成“选择性激励”,有助于抑制“搭便车”现象.参见奥尔森.集体行动的逻辑[M].上海:上海三联书店,1995年,第29-30页。
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[1]法理学(jurisprudence)是关于法律观念和法律理论的学说。法理学作为一种思想方法,是在不同学术流派的批评性思考中发展的,它使人们从有关法的观念的哲学层次上来理解法律如何规范社会制度和个人行为。
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[1]肖恩·D·默菲编著:《美国国际法的当代实践》(Contemporary Practice of the United States Relating to International Law,Sean D.Murphy ed.),《美国国际法杂志》第94卷,第375页(2000年);马克·L·莫维塞西恩:《主权、守则和世界贸易组织:最高法院复审史的教训》,《密歇概国际法杂志》第20卷,第779页。
[2]在国际范围内,“削高就低”是一种国际竞争加速导致的监管标准的不断降低。参见弗雷德里克·M·艾博特:《国际贸易和社会福利:新议程》,《比较劳动法杂志》第17卷,第368页。
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[2]事实上,试图将现实中经济活动领域与政治活动领域分开,是徒劳的和失败的。财富和权力是互补的,在一定程度上是合二为一,本文对国际政治学范式的界定,主要在以权力为基础的博弈论分析的指引下,从国际机制研究多边贸易体制。
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[1]如果一国关税的提高不改变国内消费者的负担,那么,关税的成本必然是由国外出口商承担,这时国际市场价格的变动依然能提高高关税国家的福利,这种福利的提高是通过利益的分配来实现的。参见雷达.从经济学角度看世界贸易体系[J].中国人民大学学报,2005,(1)。
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[1]如新贸易主义理论中寡头博弈的帕累托最优结果产生于该产业达到了某种共谋的结果并且产业总利润实现最大化之时。从社会整体的角度来看,这显然不是有效的。
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[1]这是因为按照三国模型,外国1在进口商品1时的关税比外国2要低,导致本国向外国2(1)的出口减少(增加),这提高了本国向外国2出口商品1的价格,因此外国2的贸易条件恶化了。
[2]但赔偿措施被批评为“趋向于保守”,因为这些赔偿通常是“停止和打住”的命令,而非对违规行为的处罚(Hoekman and Kostecki,1995)。
[1]WTO例外和保障措施主要包括GATT1994第20条“一般例外”、第21条“安全例外”、第12条“国际收支例外”、第8条“取消数量限制例外”、第14条“非歧视原则例外”、第15条“外汇平衡例外”、第24条“关税同盟例外”以及第19条“紧急措施例外”,最后再加上《保障措施协议》。
[2]WTO对发展中成员差别待遇主要体现在GATT1994第18条“经济发展例外”、第四部分“贸易与发展”以及其他WTO协议中,如TRIPS、TRIMS和GATS等。
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[1]在一个集团范围内,集团收益是公共性的,即集团中的每一个成员都能共同且均等地分享它,而不管它是否为之付出了成本,集团收益近种性质形成了集团成员的“搭便车”行为,集团越是大,分享收益的成员越多,为实现集体利益而进行活动的成员分享份额越小。相反,小集体之所以有效率,是因为成员少,因而集体决策的谈判过程费用较低,同时由于小集体透明度高,容易形成“选择性激励”,有助于抑制“搭便车”现象.参见奥尔森.集体行动的逻辑[M].上海:上海三联书店,1995年,第29-30页。
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