OECD国家养老金投资对中国养老金制度的借鉴
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摘要
社会养老金制度从其诞生到现在已经经历了100多年的历程,然而在全球性金融危机和人口老龄化日益严重的背景下,该制度在财务上是否具有可持续性、养老金资产的保值增值问题便显得格外突出。寻求养老金资产的合理投资,无论是对于养老金制度本身还是该制度的参与者而言,乃至对各国资本市场的发展都有着重要意义。尤其对中国而言,正处在各项事业改革的浪潮之中,养老金制度和资本市场的改革也在积极推进,养老金制度还很不完善,资本市场的发展也很不成熟,在这一大背景下研究养老金投资运营更加具有现实意义。
OECD国家作为养老金制度比较成熟和发达的国家,在养老金领域积累了很多的经验教训,本文对OECD国家养老金规模、影响其规模的因素、投资收益率以及面临的问题进行了系统而又全面的阐述,并将上述问题与中国养老金制度的现状进行横向以及纵向的比较,找出了目前我国养老金制度所存在的不足以及制约养老金与资本市场互动的限制性因素,对我国今后养老金乃至资本市场的发展提出了一系列合理化建议,这包括：(1)增加政府的社会养老金投入；(2)通过划拨国有股和外汇储备来充实养老金资产；(3)积极发展养老金体系的第二支柱和第三支柱；(4)拓宽养老基金的投资渠道；(5)在基本养老保险基金的管理中引入市场机制。此外,本文还运用实证研究的方法,对OECD国家以及我国的养老金与资本市场互动的因果关系进行了葛兰杰检验,得出养老金与资本市场的互动是需要多种条件这样一个结论。
It has been through more than 100 years since the birth of social pension system. However, due to the global financial crisis and aging of the population, it is doubtful whether the system can be financially sustainable and keep the assets hedged. Reasonable investment of the pension assets is of great importance for the system itself, participants and the capital markets in every country. Especially for China, we are in the wave of reform among various undertakings including pension reform and capital market reform. Our pension system is far from perfect and the capital market is also very immature. So in this kind of context, the study of pension investment is of great practical significance.
Pension systems in OECD countries are mature and advanced, and they have accumulated a lot of lessons and experience in this area. This paper makes a systematical and comprehensive presentation on factors affecting the pension size, investment rate of return and problems they are facing currently. We also compare the status quo of pension system in China with OECD countries related to problems mentioned above from both horizontal and vertical aspects. We also find out the shortcomings of the pension system in China, and factors affecting interaction between capital market and pension funds. Some reasonable proposals are made for the development of pension funds and capital market in China in the future. These proposals include:1) to increase investments in pension funds from our government; 2) to enrich the pension assets through re-allocation of state-owned shares and foreign reserves; 3) to develop the second pillar and third pillar for our pension system actively; 4) to broaden the investment channels for pension funds; 5) to introduce the market mechanisms in the management of public pension funds. In addition, the paper also made the Granger causality tests for the interaction between pension funds and the capital market of both OECD countries and China. A conclusion was made that interaction mentioned above involved a variety of conditions.
Data unavailability due to short period for some countries is the inadequacy of this paper. This problem may have some effects on validity of our conclusions.
OECD国家作为养老金制度比较成熟和发达的国家,在养老金领域积累了很多的经验教训,本文对OECD国家养老金规模、影响其规模的因素、投资收益率以及面临的问题进行了系统而又全面的阐述,并将上述问题与中国养老金制度的现状进行横向以及纵向的比较,找出了目前我国养老金制度所存在的不足以及制约养老金与资本市场互动的限制性因素,对我国今后养老金乃至资本市场的发展提出了一系列合理化建议,这包括：(1)增加政府的社会养老金投入；(2)通过划拨国有股和外汇储备来充实养老金资产；(3)积极发展养老金体系的第二支柱和第三支柱；(4)拓宽养老基金的投资渠道；(5)在基本养老保险基金的管理中引入市场机制。此外,本文还运用实证研究的方法,对OECD国家以及我国的养老金与资本市场互动的因果关系进行了葛兰杰检验,得出养老金与资本市场的互动是需要多种条件这样一个结论。
It has been through more than 100 years since the birth of social pension system. However, due to the global financial crisis and aging of the population, it is doubtful whether the system can be financially sustainable and keep the assets hedged. Reasonable investment of the pension assets is of great importance for the system itself, participants and the capital markets in every country. Especially for China, we are in the wave of reform among various undertakings including pension reform and capital market reform. Our pension system is far from perfect and the capital market is also very immature. So in this kind of context, the study of pension investment is of great practical significance.
Pension systems in OECD countries are mature and advanced, and they have accumulated a lot of lessons and experience in this area. This paper makes a systematical and comprehensive presentation on factors affecting the pension size, investment rate of return and problems they are facing currently. We also compare the status quo of pension system in China with OECD countries related to problems mentioned above from both horizontal and vertical aspects. We also find out the shortcomings of the pension system in China, and factors affecting interaction between capital market and pension funds. Some reasonable proposals are made for the development of pension funds and capital market in China in the future. These proposals include:1) to increase investments in pension funds from our government; 2) to enrich the pension assets through re-allocation of state-owned shares and foreign reserves; 3) to develop the second pillar and third pillar for our pension system actively; 4) to broaden the investment channels for pension funds; 5) to introduce the market mechanisms in the management of public pension funds. In addition, the paper also made the Granger causality tests for the interaction between pension funds and the capital market of both OECD countries and China. A conclusion was made that interaction mentioned above involved a variety of conditions.
Data unavailability due to short period for some countries is the inadequacy of this paper. This problem may have some effects on validity of our conclusions.
引文
[1]陈彦艳.我国企业年金投资运营研究[D].苏州大学.2007.
[2]邓大宋.中国企业年金制度研究[M].北京：人民出版社.2004.
[3]耿志民.养老保险基金与资本市场[M].北京：经济管理出版社.2000.
[4]李春玲.美国企业年金制度变迁研究[M].北京：知识产权出版社.2007.
[5]林羿.美国企业养老金的监督与管理[M].北京：中国财政经济出版社,2006.
[6]吕英.我国养老保险基金投资运营机制研究[D].武汉科技大学.2010.
[7]李雅文.养老保险基金的资本市场效应研究[D].陕西师范大学.2009.
[8]李仕达.企业年金基金投资[R].中国-欧盟社会保障合作项目.2010.
[9]龙菊.社会保障基金营运管理[M].北京：社会保障基金营运管理.2007.
[10]毛治文.退休基金投资策略与股票市场发展[D]台湾国立大学.2008.
[11]梅瑞江.社会养老金制度的金融功能研究[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社,2006.
[12]沈炳熙.企业年金改革与金融市场发展[J].金融纵横.2008,(1).8-12.
[13]孙建勇.养老金治理与投资[M].北京：中国发展出版社,2007.
[14]万解秋.社会保障基金投资运营研究[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2003.
[15]王虹霞.我国养老金与资本市场间互动关系的几点看法[J].四川会计.2003,(2).45.
[16]王晓曦.我国企业年金与资本市场互动问题研究[J].财经论坛.2005,(10).124-125.
[17]伊志宏.养老金投资与资本市场：国际经验及中国的选择[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2009.
[18]袁伟荣.养老基金投资与资本市场发展的双重性[J].经济改革.2007,(3).28-41.
[19]中国养老金网.中国企业年金规范与发展[M].北京：中华工商联合出版社,2007.
[20]曾欣.国外怎样投资和管理企业年金[J].经济导刊.2006,(10).29-33.
[21]张松.养老基金与资本市场互动的理论与实证研究[M].重庆：西南财经大学出版社.2006.
[22]张松.养老基金与资本市场互动的理论与实证研究[D].西南财经大学.2005.
[23]赵云.我国企业年金基金资本化运营研究[D].广西民族大学.2009.
[24]章伟.我国企业年金基金投资运作研究[D].厦门大学.2006.
[25]郑秉文.社保改革：启示与方向[J].中国报道.2009,(1).1-6.
[26]郑秉文.社保改革“智利模式"25年的发展历程回眸[J].拉丁美洲研究.2006.(5).3-15.
[27]郑秉文.人口膨胀与老龄化[N].2010-01-07(21)
[28]Annual Statistical Supplement 2010,2011, Social Security Administration.
[29]Broken Promises:Can the World's Stressed-out Pension Plans Be Rescued, 2010, Knowledge @ Wharton.
[30]Channarith Meng,2010, The Role of Pension Funds in Capital Market Development, GRIPS Policy Research Center.
[31]Dimitri, Vittas,1996, Pension Funds and Capital Markets, Word Bank.
[32]Daniel, B. Radner,1998, The Retirement Propects of the Baby Boom Generation, Social Security Administration.
[33]Dave Shoffner,2010, Distributional Effects of Raising the Social Security Payroll Tax, Social Security Administration.
[34]Francesco, Franzoni,2006, "Pension Plan Funding and Stock Market Efficiency", The Journal of Finance, Vol. LXI, Apr., PP921-956.
[35]How Wealth Nations Can Avoid a Looming Retirement Crisis,2002, Knowledge @ Wharton.
[36]Poterba, James M,2004, "The Impact of Population Aging on Financial Markets." Cambridge, Mass.:National Bureau of Economic Research,2004.
[37]The Short and Long-Term Outlook for Stocks,2004, Knowledge @ Wharton.
[38]Ten Years From Now, Will Retiring Baby Boomers Cause a Stock Market Meltdown,2001, Knowledge @ Wharton.
[39]The U.S. Retirement Market 2009,2010, ICI.
[40]The U.S Retirement Market Fourth Quarter 2010,2011, ICI.
[41]401(k) Plan Asset Allocation, Account Balances, and Loan Activity in 2009, 2010, ICI.
[2]邓大宋.中国企业年金制度研究[M].北京：人民出版社.2004.
[3]耿志民.养老保险基金与资本市场[M].北京：经济管理出版社.2000.
[4]李春玲.美国企业年金制度变迁研究[M].北京：知识产权出版社.2007.
[5]林羿.美国企业养老金的监督与管理[M].北京：中国财政经济出版社,2006.
[6]吕英.我国养老保险基金投资运营机制研究[D].武汉科技大学.2010.
[7]李雅文.养老保险基金的资本市场效应研究[D].陕西师范大学.2009.
[8]李仕达.企业年金基金投资[R].中国-欧盟社会保障合作项目.2010.
[9]龙菊.社会保障基金营运管理[M].北京：社会保障基金营运管理.2007.
[10]毛治文.退休基金投资策略与股票市场发展[D]台湾国立大学.2008.
[11]梅瑞江.社会养老金制度的金融功能研究[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社,2006.
[12]沈炳熙.企业年金改革与金融市场发展[J].金融纵横.2008,(1).8-12.
[13]孙建勇.养老金治理与投资[M].北京：中国发展出版社,2007.
[14]万解秋.社会保障基金投资运营研究[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2003.
[15]王虹霞.我国养老金与资本市场间互动关系的几点看法[J].四川会计.2003,(2).45.
[16]王晓曦.我国企业年金与资本市场互动问题研究[J].财经论坛.2005,(10).124-125.
[17]伊志宏.养老金投资与资本市场：国际经验及中国的选择[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2009.
[18]袁伟荣.养老基金投资与资本市场发展的双重性[J].经济改革.2007,(3).28-41.
[19]中国养老金网.中国企业年金规范与发展[M].北京：中华工商联合出版社,2007.
[20]曾欣.国外怎样投资和管理企业年金[J].经济导刊.2006,(10).29-33.
[21]张松.养老基金与资本市场互动的理论与实证研究[M].重庆：西南财经大学出版社.2006.
[22]张松.养老基金与资本市场互动的理论与实证研究[D].西南财经大学.2005.
[23]赵云.我国企业年金基金资本化运营研究[D].广西民族大学.2009.
[24]章伟.我国企业年金基金投资运作研究[D].厦门大学.2006.
[25]郑秉文.社保改革：启示与方向[J].中国报道.2009,(1).1-6.
[26]郑秉文.社保改革“智利模式"25年的发展历程回眸[J].拉丁美洲研究.2006.(5).3-15.
[27]郑秉文.人口膨胀与老龄化[N].2010-01-07(21)
[28]Annual Statistical Supplement 2010,2011, Social Security Administration.
[29]Broken Promises:Can the World's Stressed-out Pension Plans Be Rescued, 2010, Knowledge @ Wharton.
[30]Channarith Meng,2010, The Role of Pension Funds in Capital Market Development, GRIPS Policy Research Center.
[31]Dimitri, Vittas,1996, Pension Funds and Capital Markets, Word Bank.
[32]Daniel, B. Radner,1998, The Retirement Propects of the Baby Boom Generation, Social Security Administration.
[33]Dave Shoffner,2010, Distributional Effects of Raising the Social Security Payroll Tax, Social Security Administration.
[34]Francesco, Franzoni,2006, "Pension Plan Funding and Stock Market Efficiency", The Journal of Finance, Vol. LXI, Apr., PP921-956.
[35]How Wealth Nations Can Avoid a Looming Retirement Crisis,2002, Knowledge @ Wharton.
[36]Poterba, James M,2004, "The Impact of Population Aging on Financial Markets." Cambridge, Mass.:National Bureau of Economic Research,2004.
[37]The Short and Long-Term Outlook for Stocks,2004, Knowledge @ Wharton.
[38]Ten Years From Now, Will Retiring Baby Boomers Cause a Stock Market Meltdown,2001, Knowledge @ Wharton.
[39]The U.S. Retirement Market 2009,2010, ICI.
[40]The U.S Retirement Market Fourth Quarter 2010,2011, ICI.
[41]401(k) Plan Asset Allocation, Account Balances, and Loan Activity in 2009, 2010, ICI.