人民币汇率变动对我国出口商品价格影响研究
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摘要
自2005年7月人民币汇率形成机制改革两年多来,人民币对美元汇率一直处于稳步、小幅、高频的动态升值过程中。然而我国的出口依然随着人民币升值继续大幅度增加,同时贸易顺差也持续加大。这些传统国际收支理论所不能解释的现象需要从新的视角进行解读。本文利用汇率不完全传递理论对我国出口企业的微观定价行为进行研究,以期找出人民币汇率变动对我国出口企业的具体影响机制和影响程度。本文的研究不但对拓展汇率政策的有效性研究具有理论意义,而且对中国的汇率政策、贸易政策以及对外开放模式的选择都有重要的现实意义。
本文的创新主要在三个方面:第一,研究角度的创新。以往对人民币升值效应的研究主要集中在宏观或者中观层面上进行,从出口企业微观主体入手进行研究的尚不多见。本文研究角度的创新使得研究汇率传导的过程和具体机制成为可能,也使得研究的成果更为可靠。第二,为了考察行业和国别效应,本文引入了面板数据分析方法进行研究,这与以往对人民币汇率和出口价格的关系的研究中只考虑总体出口价格指数与汇率关系是不同的。通过运用行业面板数据和国别面板数据进行对比分析,分行业和分国别研究出口价格的传递效应,可以更深入地分析我国总出口价格汇率传递不完全的原因,得出的结果也应该更为可信。第三,本文在对我国汇率传递的研究中得到了新的结论,其一是发现我国不同的出口行业的汇率传递弹性并没有显著差别,而对不同的出口对象国则显示出了较为明显的不同;其二,发现我国出口企业减少加成的空间有限,主要是通过减少成本,如增加进口原材料和降低工人实际工资来降低汇率传递度的。
本文认为由于出口商能够吸收一定幅度的汇率变动,短期内汇率政策效果不明显,但长期来看,人民币汇率升值对我国产业结构的调整应具有显著作用。从根本上来说,只有转变我国的经济增长方式,包括通过调整收入分配政策、有效提高内需、转变外贸增长方式等,才能实现我国内外经济的平衡发展。
The RMB exchange rate against the dollar has been in a steady, small, high-frequency dynamic revaluation process for more than two years since the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism comes into being in July 2005. However, China's exports has continued to increase substantially, as while as the trade surplus. This phenomenon that can not be explained by these traditional theories of the balance of payments needs to be interpreted from the new perspective.
The paper studies the conduct of China's export-enterprises' micro-pricing by using the theory of incomplete exchange rate pass-through to try to find out the specific mechanism and extent of effect by changes of RMB exchange rate to export-enterprise in China. Our paper not only has the theoretical significance on expanding the effectiveness of exchange rate policy, but also has important practical significance on China's exchange rate policies, trade policies, as well as the choices of opening-up model.
This paper has three main innovations: First, the innovation of research perspective. Anciently, the research of RMB revaluation's effects mainly concentrated on the macro or middle level. But this paper interprets from the start with microscopic view of the main export enterprises. It is still rare. This innovation not only makes the conduction process and the specific mechanisms possible, but also makes the results more reliable. Second, Based on empirical studies on the export prices in connection with the RMB exchange rate, the paper differs with the general study of only considering the overall export price index and the relationship with the exchange rate. It contrasts and analyses the industry panel data and country panel data, and partitions sectors and countries to study the effects of passing through of export prices in order to analyze thoroughly the reason of incomplete exchange rate pass through of tall exports prices of China. So makes the results more reliable. Third, one of the conclusions of the paper is that there are no significant differences in different export industries' exchange rate flexibility of pass through, but there are obvious difference in the export object countries. The other is that the ability of reducing markup ration in export companies of China is limited, mainly by reducing the cost such as increasing of imported raw materials and decreasing real wages of workers to reduce the rate of transmission.
This paper believes that exporters can absorb a certain level of the exchange rate movements, and the exchange rate policy is void in the short-term, but from a long time, the appreciation of the RMB has a prominent role in readjustment of the industrial structure in China. But fundamentally, only changing the mode of China's economic growth, including through adjusting the income distribution policy to effectively improve domestic demand, and the transformation of foreign trade growth mode, and so on, can achieve a balanced development of the economy at home and abroad.
本文的创新主要在三个方面:第一,研究角度的创新。以往对人民币升值效应的研究主要集中在宏观或者中观层面上进行,从出口企业微观主体入手进行研究的尚不多见。本文研究角度的创新使得研究汇率传导的过程和具体机制成为可能,也使得研究的成果更为可靠。第二,为了考察行业和国别效应,本文引入了面板数据分析方法进行研究,这与以往对人民币汇率和出口价格的关系的研究中只考虑总体出口价格指数与汇率关系是不同的。通过运用行业面板数据和国别面板数据进行对比分析,分行业和分国别研究出口价格的传递效应,可以更深入地分析我国总出口价格汇率传递不完全的原因,得出的结果也应该更为可信。第三,本文在对我国汇率传递的研究中得到了新的结论,其一是发现我国不同的出口行业的汇率传递弹性并没有显著差别,而对不同的出口对象国则显示出了较为明显的不同;其二,发现我国出口企业减少加成的空间有限,主要是通过减少成本,如增加进口原材料和降低工人实际工资来降低汇率传递度的。
本文认为由于出口商能够吸收一定幅度的汇率变动,短期内汇率政策效果不明显,但长期来看,人民币汇率升值对我国产业结构的调整应具有显著作用。从根本上来说,只有转变我国的经济增长方式,包括通过调整收入分配政策、有效提高内需、转变外贸增长方式等,才能实现我国内外经济的平衡发展。
The RMB exchange rate against the dollar has been in a steady, small, high-frequency dynamic revaluation process for more than two years since the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism comes into being in July 2005. However, China's exports has continued to increase substantially, as while as the trade surplus. This phenomenon that can not be explained by these traditional theories of the balance of payments needs to be interpreted from the new perspective.
The paper studies the conduct of China's export-enterprises' micro-pricing by using the theory of incomplete exchange rate pass-through to try to find out the specific mechanism and extent of effect by changes of RMB exchange rate to export-enterprise in China. Our paper not only has the theoretical significance on expanding the effectiveness of exchange rate policy, but also has important practical significance on China's exchange rate policies, trade policies, as well as the choices of opening-up model.
This paper has three main innovations: First, the innovation of research perspective. Anciently, the research of RMB revaluation's effects mainly concentrated on the macro or middle level. But this paper interprets from the start with microscopic view of the main export enterprises. It is still rare. This innovation not only makes the conduction process and the specific mechanisms possible, but also makes the results more reliable. Second, Based on empirical studies on the export prices in connection with the RMB exchange rate, the paper differs with the general study of only considering the overall export price index and the relationship with the exchange rate. It contrasts and analyses the industry panel data and country panel data, and partitions sectors and countries to study the effects of passing through of export prices in order to analyze thoroughly the reason of incomplete exchange rate pass through of tall exports prices of China. So makes the results more reliable. Third, one of the conclusions of the paper is that there are no significant differences in different export industries' exchange rate flexibility of pass through, but there are obvious difference in the export object countries. The other is that the ability of reducing markup ration in export companies of China is limited, mainly by reducing the cost such as increasing of imported raw materials and decreasing real wages of workers to reduce the rate of transmission.
This paper believes that exporters can absorb a certain level of the exchange rate movements, and the exchange rate policy is void in the short-term, but from a long time, the appreciation of the RMB has a prominent role in readjustment of the industrial structure in China. But fundamentally, only changing the mode of China's economic growth, including through adjusting the income distribution policy to effectively improve domestic demand, and the transformation of foreign trade growth mode, and so on, can achieve a balanced development of the economy at home and abroad.
引文
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