中国工业品出口结构低碳转型问题研究
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摘要
环境问题是当今世界发展不可回避的重大问题,其中气候变化问题作为环境问题中最严重的一种已经直接威胁到人类社会的可持续发展。国际社会就此展开了广泛的讨论和努力,目前已经在《联合国气候变化框架公约》的框架下达成了共同应对气候变化的共识。《框架公约》下的历次缔约方大会均致力于限制和减少CO2等温室气体的排放,一些低碳贸易措施相继被提出。中国作为世界C02排放大国和出口贸易大国,在节能减排方面的行动越来越受到国际社会的关注。工业又是中国能源消耗最高和出口占比最大的产业,本文在对国际低碳贸易措施进行分析的前提下,主要关注中国工业品出口“碳结构”现状以及如何进行调整的问题。
全文分为六章,除了第一章的绪论和第六章的结论,中间四个部分为全文的核心所在,具体安排如下：
第二章介绍了国际社会应对气候变化的各项“低碳贸易措施”，包括碳关税、国际温室气体管理标准、碳标签和低碳产品认证,并在WTO框架下对这些措施的合法性进行了判定。结果发现碳关税措施与WTO规定存在相抵触的地方,其推行将受到国际方面的一定阻力。而对产品进行温室气体标准化检测等措施则存在更多的合理性和可操作性,是中国产品生产应该积极采纳和奉行的。尽管碳关税存在与WTO规则不相符的地方,依然受到欧美一些国家的支持,他们通过征收国内碳税等方式存在将碳关税合法强加于发展中国家的可能性。届时,中国将成为碳关税征收的主要对象,出口将不可避免地受到影响。
第三章是对中国出口工业品“碳结构”的分析。首先使用了“投入产出法”,利用最新数据,对中国工业品出口中的隐含碳排放额情况进行了估算。并发现,中国的巨额CO2排放量中有相当一部分是通过产品出口的形式为国外消费者承担的。接着通过“绝对碳排放量结构”和“碳排放强度结构”两个指标,对中国工业品出口碳结构进行了解析,发现中国工业品出口碳结构确实存在不合理。继而模拟分析了中国工业品出口在遭遇出口碳关税的情况下将会受到的影响。结果表明,工业出口成本及竞争力、工业部门生产和工业部门就业这三个方面都将遭受到巨大冲击。
第四部分是对中国工业品出口低碳转型所具备的条件和所面临的困难进行分析。有利条件包括：节能减排潜力大、成本低,国际技术合作空间巨大,丰富的清洁能源储备以及国内政策的支持。而所面临的困难主要有：能源消费结构不合理、难以迅速扭转,经济发展相对落后、能源消耗量大,研发能力不足、技术差距大以及观念落后、制度建设不健全。
第五部分是对中国工业品出口低碳化转型的对策建议。首先提到国际对策,即指中国应该积极参与到国际应对气候变化的规则制定中去,充分保护自己的权益。国内对策主要是针对前文提到的转型困难,包括能源对策、针对工业发展阶段的对策、基金技术对策以及制度观念对策。
本文的基本观点是,国际贸易措施中的碳关税存在不合理性,是一种新型的国际贸易壁垒。美国等发达国家不仅不应该征收碳关税,而且还应该考虑到中国为了世界利益做出的巨大牺牲,积极转让先进的技术,以全球化视角看待问题,解决问题。中国企业也应该正视自身高碳生产高碳出口的现状,主动参与到产品出口结构低碳转型中去。
Environmental problems have become the inevitable issues in the world development; and the climate change is the most serious one as a direct threat to human society in the sustainable development. The international community has discussed widely and worked hard together; now has jointly responded to the climate change under the United Nations framework convention on climate change. Under the framework convention, every party congress is committed to limit and reduce CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases; in the other hand, some low carbon trading measures are put forward. China as a big export country with huge CO2 emissions, the action in energy conservation and emission reduction has been attracted more and more attention by the international community. Industry has the highest energy consumption and the biggest export in China. This paper will base on the analysis of international low carbon trading measures, focus on the "low carbon structure" of the present Chinese industry export; then discuss how to adjust this problem.
This paper is divided into six chapters. Except the first chapter "introduction" and the last chapter "conclusion", the other four parts are the core of this paper. Specific arrangements are as follows:
The second chapter introduces the "low carbon trading measures" to deal with the climate change by the international community, including carbon tariffs, international greenhouse gas management standards, carbon labels and low carbon product certification, also discusses the legality of these measures under the framework of WTO. The result shows:carbon tariffs exist conflict with WTO regulation; the implementation will have certain resistance. The international greenhouse gas management standards has more rationality and operability, we should actively adopt and execute. Yet the carbon tariffs exists some conflict with WTO rules, the developed country still support carbon tariffs. They insist impose domestic carbon tax in order to impose legal carbon tariffs on the possibility of developing countries.Then China will become the main object of carbon tariffs imposed, the export will be inevitably affected.
The third chapter is about the "carbon structure" analysis of Chinese industry export. First, we base on the "input-output method", use the latest data to estimate the implicit carbon amount in Chinese industry export. In the huge CO2 emissions, China bears a certain part CO2 emissions for the foreign consumers in the form of implicit carbon in export commodity. Then through two indexes:the "absolute carbon emissions structure" and the "carbon intensity structure", we analyze the "carbon structure" of Chinese Industry Export and found the "carbon structure" really exists unreasonable. Then we simulate under the condition of carbon tariffs, and analyze the influence to Chinese Industry Export. The result show that the cost and competitiveness of industry export, industry production and employment of industry department will be subjected to the huge impact.
The fourth chapter is about the conditions and difficulties in the low carbon transformation of Chinese industry export. The favorable conditions including:big potential and low cost of energy conservation and emission reduction, more international technology cooperation, abundant clean energy reserves and active domestic policy support. The main difficulties faced including:the energy consumption structure is unreasonable and difficult to reverse rapid; the economic development is relatively behind; energy consumption is huge and research capability is insufficient; the concept is behind and the system construction is imperfect.
The fifth chapter is the countermeasures and suggestions to the low carbon transformation of Chinese industry export. First, the international countermeasure is mentioned, it suggests that China should participate actively in the international climate change rule formulation to protect our reasonable rights and interests. The domestic countermeasure is mainly aimed at the difficulty of low carbon transformation, including:energy countermeasure, countermeasure for industry development stage, fund and technical countermeasure, concept and system countermeasure.
The basic views of this paper are:the carbon tariff is unreasonable in the international trade; it's a new kind of international trading barriers. The United States and other developed countries should not levy carbon tariff, but also consider that China has made huge sacrifice to the whole world. The developed countries should positively transfer advanced technology with the globalization angle to solve the problem. Chinese enterprises should face up to the production situation of high carbon export and actively participate in the low carbon transformation of industry export structure.
全文分为六章,除了第一章的绪论和第六章的结论,中间四个部分为全文的核心所在,具体安排如下：
第二章介绍了国际社会应对气候变化的各项“低碳贸易措施”，包括碳关税、国际温室气体管理标准、碳标签和低碳产品认证,并在WTO框架下对这些措施的合法性进行了判定。结果发现碳关税措施与WTO规定存在相抵触的地方,其推行将受到国际方面的一定阻力。而对产品进行温室气体标准化检测等措施则存在更多的合理性和可操作性,是中国产品生产应该积极采纳和奉行的。尽管碳关税存在与WTO规则不相符的地方,依然受到欧美一些国家的支持,他们通过征收国内碳税等方式存在将碳关税合法强加于发展中国家的可能性。届时,中国将成为碳关税征收的主要对象,出口将不可避免地受到影响。
第三章是对中国出口工业品“碳结构”的分析。首先使用了“投入产出法”,利用最新数据,对中国工业品出口中的隐含碳排放额情况进行了估算。并发现,中国的巨额CO2排放量中有相当一部分是通过产品出口的形式为国外消费者承担的。接着通过“绝对碳排放量结构”和“碳排放强度结构”两个指标,对中国工业品出口碳结构进行了解析,发现中国工业品出口碳结构确实存在不合理。继而模拟分析了中国工业品出口在遭遇出口碳关税的情况下将会受到的影响。结果表明,工业出口成本及竞争力、工业部门生产和工业部门就业这三个方面都将遭受到巨大冲击。
第四部分是对中国工业品出口低碳转型所具备的条件和所面临的困难进行分析。有利条件包括：节能减排潜力大、成本低,国际技术合作空间巨大,丰富的清洁能源储备以及国内政策的支持。而所面临的困难主要有：能源消费结构不合理、难以迅速扭转,经济发展相对落后、能源消耗量大,研发能力不足、技术差距大以及观念落后、制度建设不健全。
第五部分是对中国工业品出口低碳化转型的对策建议。首先提到国际对策,即指中国应该积极参与到国际应对气候变化的规则制定中去,充分保护自己的权益。国内对策主要是针对前文提到的转型困难,包括能源对策、针对工业发展阶段的对策、基金技术对策以及制度观念对策。
本文的基本观点是,国际贸易措施中的碳关税存在不合理性,是一种新型的国际贸易壁垒。美国等发达国家不仅不应该征收碳关税,而且还应该考虑到中国为了世界利益做出的巨大牺牲,积极转让先进的技术,以全球化视角看待问题,解决问题。中国企业也应该正视自身高碳生产高碳出口的现状,主动参与到产品出口结构低碳转型中去。
Environmental problems have become the inevitable issues in the world development; and the climate change is the most serious one as a direct threat to human society in the sustainable development. The international community has discussed widely and worked hard together; now has jointly responded to the climate change under the United Nations framework convention on climate change. Under the framework convention, every party congress is committed to limit and reduce CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases; in the other hand, some low carbon trading measures are put forward. China as a big export country with huge CO2 emissions, the action in energy conservation and emission reduction has been attracted more and more attention by the international community. Industry has the highest energy consumption and the biggest export in China. This paper will base on the analysis of international low carbon trading measures, focus on the "low carbon structure" of the present Chinese industry export; then discuss how to adjust this problem.
This paper is divided into six chapters. Except the first chapter "introduction" and the last chapter "conclusion", the other four parts are the core of this paper. Specific arrangements are as follows:
The second chapter introduces the "low carbon trading measures" to deal with the climate change by the international community, including carbon tariffs, international greenhouse gas management standards, carbon labels and low carbon product certification, also discusses the legality of these measures under the framework of WTO. The result shows:carbon tariffs exist conflict with WTO regulation; the implementation will have certain resistance. The international greenhouse gas management standards has more rationality and operability, we should actively adopt and execute. Yet the carbon tariffs exists some conflict with WTO rules, the developed country still support carbon tariffs. They insist impose domestic carbon tax in order to impose legal carbon tariffs on the possibility of developing countries.Then China will become the main object of carbon tariffs imposed, the export will be inevitably affected.
The third chapter is about the "carbon structure" analysis of Chinese industry export. First, we base on the "input-output method", use the latest data to estimate the implicit carbon amount in Chinese industry export. In the huge CO2 emissions, China bears a certain part CO2 emissions for the foreign consumers in the form of implicit carbon in export commodity. Then through two indexes:the "absolute carbon emissions structure" and the "carbon intensity structure", we analyze the "carbon structure" of Chinese Industry Export and found the "carbon structure" really exists unreasonable. Then we simulate under the condition of carbon tariffs, and analyze the influence to Chinese Industry Export. The result show that the cost and competitiveness of industry export, industry production and employment of industry department will be subjected to the huge impact.
The fourth chapter is about the conditions and difficulties in the low carbon transformation of Chinese industry export. The favorable conditions including:big potential and low cost of energy conservation and emission reduction, more international technology cooperation, abundant clean energy reserves and active domestic policy support. The main difficulties faced including:the energy consumption structure is unreasonable and difficult to reverse rapid; the economic development is relatively behind; energy consumption is huge and research capability is insufficient; the concept is behind and the system construction is imperfect.
The fifth chapter is the countermeasures and suggestions to the low carbon transformation of Chinese industry export. First, the international countermeasure is mentioned, it suggests that China should participate actively in the international climate change rule formulation to protect our reasonable rights and interests. The domestic countermeasure is mainly aimed at the difficulty of low carbon transformation, including:energy countermeasure, countermeasure for industry development stage, fund and technical countermeasure, concept and system countermeasure.
The basic views of this paper are:the carbon tariff is unreasonable in the international trade; it's a new kind of international trading barriers. The United States and other developed countries should not levy carbon tariff, but also consider that China has made huge sacrifice to the whole world. The developed countries should positively transfer advanced technology with the globalization angle to solve the problem. Chinese enterprises should face up to the production situation of high carbon export and actively participate in the low carbon transformation of industry export structure.
引文
①针对国内产品CO2排放的征税。
②赵维田.协调贸易规则与环境需要——评WTO“海龟案”[J],国际贸易2000(1)
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①张所续,对我国发展低碳经济的思考与建议[J],西部资源2010(1)
②新华网-财经频道,2006-12-05.http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2006-12/05/content_5437421.htm
③马凯,2004中国发展高层论坛发言稿.
①国家统计局、科技部、财政部联合发布：2008年全国科技经费投入统计公报
②世界经济合作组织：
①凤凰网-财经频道2010-03-02. http://finance.ifeng.com/news/special/2010zongqinghou/20100302/1873052.shtml
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