农户借贷行为及其对收入的影响研究
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摘要
对有借贷需求的农户而言,借贷行为是家庭生产生活的重要组成部分。当实际借贷行为发生后,农户可以进一步优化现有家庭资源配置效率,从而有望把握住生产经营投资机会,并在短期内提高收入水平；或者有效改善家庭生活消费水平,并通过未来的努力进行偿还,由此在长期实现家庭效用最大化。但在现实中,由于信贷约束在农村地区的普遍存在(Stiglitz等,1981),有借贷需求的农户所面对的农村金融市场环境并不乐观,这已经成为制约农户收入增长的关键因素之一。根据杜晓山(2010)的调查结果,全国只有27%的农户能获得正规渠道贷款,在有金融需求的农户中,仍有约40%以上不能获得正规信贷支持；从规模来看,农户未被满足的信贷需求缺口占到其贷款需求总额的56.72%(程郁,2010)。因此,要优化农户借贷行为,进而提高有借贷需求农户的收入与福利水平,迫切需要强化农村金融支持,降低农户进入农村正规金融市场的门槛,切实改善有借贷需求农户的融资机会。
从国家政策层面来看,自2004年起,连续七年的中央一号文件均高度关注农村金融,党的十七届三中全会也明确强调要建立现代农村金融制度,这既充分肯定了农村金融的重要性,也说明现有农村金融体系仍难以满足农村地区金融需求,亟待深化改革与发展。在这种背景下,讨论农业和农村经济问题,非常有必要重视农户这一研究对象。作为我国农村地区社会经济的微观基础,农户经济行为特征及其与农村金融改革发展的关系,始终是农村金融问题研究的基本内容之一。回顾以往的农村金融改革不难发现一个共性特征：遵循自上而下的改革路径,过多强调金融深化本身,对需求主体的考虑较为缺乏,相应的政策目标自然难以实现。就农户层面而言,只有从农村金融需求的主体——实际存在借贷需求的农户入手,以高效率、快捷化和低成本为导向,为那些有借贷需求且具有偿还能力的农户提供金融支持,才能更加有效地推进农村金融改革,促进农村金融深化和农村金融机构支农目标的实现。
近年来,农户借贷行为是国内外研究者广泛讨论的主题,并取得了较为丰富的研究成果。对已有文献进行整理后发现以下特点：一是研究内容比较全面,对农户借贷行为的各个方面均不同程度地有所涉及,借贷行为特征有比较多的共识,构成后续研究的重要基础；二是研究方法相对集中,对农户借贷行为的描述性分析和实证检验较多,从理论上进行解释的文献偏少,同时将理论分析与实证分析结合起来的更少,因而缺少对农户借贷行为内在逻辑的经济学分析,政策含义有待挖掘；三是研究深度有待拓展,这突出体现在对农户借贷行为的福利效应分析方面,以对收入的影响为例,尽管分析方法有差异,但较多文献的普遍做法是,简单地将农户借贷行为与收入纳入计量模型,对农户借贷行为影响收入的作用机制考虑相对不足,甚至是忽略。
基于上述分析,在研究农户借贷行为时首先需要明确的问题是,在研究对象上严格区分有借贷需求和没有借贷需求的农户,其中,本文的重点研究对象是“有借贷需求的农户”。农户借贷渠道、借贷用途以及借贷行为对收入的影响是最为重要也是最有意义的三个方面。为此,本文拟在借鉴已有文献的基础上,通过理论分析与实证检验相结合的方式,重点研究和解决以下三个问题：第一,在农村地区普遍存在信贷约束的条件下,作为被动借贷的结果,如何从理论上对农户正规借贷渠道偏好和非正规借贷渠道偏好进行合理的经济学解释,探究这一现象形成的内在逻辑,并进行相应的实证检验?如何设计有针对性的农村公共政策和金融政策,以提高农户的正规借贷渠道偏好?第二,作为富有理性的农户,为什么在借贷用途选择上,比较倾向于将借贷资金用于生活性支出?与此相关的问题是,农户在何种情况下会选择生产性借贷或生活性借贷?特别地,农户选择不能直接增加收入水平的生活性借贷,除了应对临时或必要开支的消费功能以外,如何从经济学理论上进行相应的解释,以便更为深入系统地考察农户生活性借贷选择的理性经济人行为动机?第三,在农户就业结构、生产规模、经营方式、种植结构等差异日趋明显的现实背景下,围绕提高收入这一目标,应该如何从理论上认识农户借贷行为对收入的影响机制?换言之,借贷行为的发生和借贷资金的获得,究竟通过何种机制和途径影响农户收入?农户借贷行为对家庭农业收入和非农收入的影响是否存在差异?其相应的政策含义是什么?
本文研究的总目标是,以有借贷需求的农户为研究对象,以农村金融理论、农户经济理论和交易成本理论等为基础,分别从交易成本视角解释农户借贷渠道偏好,以及从家庭效用视角考察农户借贷用途选择；在此基础上,深入阐述农户借贷行为影响收入的作用机制,并综合运用实地调查和统计数据,构建计量经济模型对上述理论分析结果进行相应的实证检验,为设计优化农户借贷行为、改善农户融资机会、促进农户收入增长及福利水平提高的农村金融改革路径和政策措施提供理论与经验依据。与此相对应,本文的主要研究内容与基本结论具体如下：
研究内容一：有借贷需求的农户借贷行为特征分析
以有借贷需求的农户为分析对象,在分析农户申请正规借贷时信贷约束状况与未申请正规借贷原因的基础上,重点从借贷渠道、借贷用途、借贷金额、借贷利率等方面,具体描述和分析我国农户借贷行为现状,总结其基本特点,并进行初步分析和解释。研究结果发现,总体而言,非正规渠道仍然是现阶段我国有借贷需求农户的主要选择,资金短缺与信贷约束仍是目前我国农村地区较为普遍的现象,但在一些发达地区以及家庭经济条件较好的农户中,正规借贷渠道的作用有所提高。由于外部经济环境以及农户自身能力的限制,较多农户缺乏必要的生产经营投资机会,此时用于生活性支出依然是农户借贷的主要目的；不过,随着农业新品种新技术的日益广泛使用和非农就业机会的日趋多元化,上述状况也在不断发生变化,农户生产性借贷正在变得更加突出和重要。无息借贷仍是农户借贷的主要形式,但有息借贷正在变得更加普遍,这说明随着市场化进程的深入,农户逐渐由关系型借贷转向契约型借贷。
研究内容二：农户借贷渠道偏好的理论分析与实证检验
基于农户受到信贷约束的前提假定,构造农户借贷渠道偏好与交易成本关系的理论模型,由此证明,如果农户面临的正规借贷渠道交易成本过高,则农户将转向非正规借贷渠道。在此基础上,从农户社会资本和农村金融服务供给两个方面量化交易成本,从而检验农户社会资本的提高和农村金融服务供给的增加,是否有助于提高农户的正规借贷渠道偏好,即农户的借贷需求更多地被农村正规金融机构所接受。研究结果发现：社会资本可以起到信号甄别的作用,从而降低农户与借贷资金供给方之间的信息不对称,这在非正规借贷渠道已经得到验证,不同类型的个人社会资本和社区社会资本作用存在显著差异,且个人社会资本的作用小于社区社会资本；而增加农村金融服务供给,包括加强农村金融产品和服务宣传、增加服务农户的信贷工作人员、提高对农村地区的有效覆盖率、增加对农户贷款总规模等,有助于降低交易成本,进而增强农户接触正规借贷渠道的方便程度,提高农户正规借贷渠道资金的可获得性。
研究内容三：农户借贷用途选择的理论分析与实证检验
引入农户家庭效用概念,由此构建跨期的农户借贷用途选择与家庭效用函数模型,从理论上阐明生产性借贷用途和生活性借贷用途均有助于提高农户家庭效用；而农户对生产性借贷用途和生活性借贷用途的选择,主要由家庭生产生活特征和面临的生产投资机会决定。基于理论分析结果,建立计量经济模型考察农户家庭生产生活特征和生产投资机会对农户借贷用途选择的影响。研究结果发现：生产开支比较大的农户,更倾向于选择生产性借贷；日常生活开支对借贷用途选择的影响不明显,当发生非固定的大笔生活开支时,农户往往需要借贷来应对；人情往来支出多的农户、家里有子女上学和老人的农户,对生活性借贷资金的需求明显比较大；发达地区和相对落后地区的农户对生活性借贷资金的需求都要大于生产性借贷资金。
研究内容四：农户借贷行为影响收入的理论分析与实证检验
以麦金农模型为基础,首先构建跨期农户生产投资——消费决策的一般均衡模型,考察生产性借贷与生活性借贷对农户收入的影响机理及影响程度；然后综合运用新古典经济理论和农户经济理论,遵循农户技术边界、技术组合和要素优化的分析思路,由此阐释借贷行为对农户收入的影响机制。在考虑农户个体及家庭特征和地区因素影响的基础上,构建多元回归模型分别考察农户借贷行为对家庭总收入、农业收入和非农收入的影响方向及影响程度,并比较其差异。研究结果发现：当农户存在资金短缺进而有借贷需求时,能否获得借贷资金对这一部分农户家庭总收入增长具有重要影响,且借贷资金对农户非农收入增长的作用要大于对农业收入增长的作用,但这种差异比较小；借贷渠道对农户家庭总收入和农业收入增长也起着重要作用,且正规借贷渠道所起的作用要明显大于非正规借贷渠道；尽管影响机理不同,生产性借贷与生活性借贷都有助于提高农户收入,且在短期生产性借贷用途的作用要明显大于生活性借贷用途；借贷利率对农户农业收入、非农收入和家庭总收入的增长具有一定的负面作用,但这种作用很不显著。
Rural households who have credit demand could further optimize the existing family resource allocation efficiency, if they are able to access to necessary external funding support. Then they may capture the grasp investment opportunities of production and operation and improve income level in the short term. Of course, they could also improve family life consumption level and repay the money through future efforts, which is the way to achieve maximum family utility in the long term. But in reality, due to the prevalence of credit constraints in rural areas (Stiglitz et al.,1981), rural households who have credit demand are facing bad rural financial market environment. And this has become one of the key factors blocking rural households' income growth. According to Du Xiaoshan (2010) investigation results, there are only27%rural households who can get loan from formal channels. There are still about40%rural households who have credit demand can not get loan from formal channels. Unmet credit demand gap of rural households accounted for56.72%of total loan demand (Cheng Yu,2010). Therefore, it's urgent to strengthen rural financial support. The reduction of threshold access to rural formal financial market and improvement of financing opportunities is very important for rural households who have credit demand.
From the perspective of national policy, the No.1file released by the central government of China had pay close attention to rural finance since2004. The Third Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee of CPC also emphasized the establishment of modern rural financial system, which means the importance of rural finance. At the same time, the existing rural financial system is still difficult to meet rural financial demand which is necessary to deepen reform and develop. It's very necessary to pay special attention to rural households when discussing agriculture and rural economy problems. As micro foundation of society and economy in China's rural area, the economic behavior characteristics of rural households and its' relationship with reform and development of rural finance is always one of the core contents about rural finance research. The common feature of all previous rural financial reforms is following reform path from top to bottom and having too much emphasis on financial deepening itself. Due to little consideration of demand subject, it is very hard to achieve the policy targets. The reform of rural finance must emphasize the rural households who have credit demand, which should be guided by high efficiency, quick service and low cost. Financial support must be supplied to those who have credit demand and has the ability to pay. Only in this way could more effectively promote rural financial reform and rural financial deepening and realize the preset targets rural financial institutions.
In recent years, credit behavior of rural households has been widely discussed by domestic and foreign researchers. As a result, comparatively rich research results have been achieved. The characteristics of existing literatures are as follow. First, many aspects of credit behavior of rural households have been studied and a lot of common sense has been achieved, which is important basis of the future study. Second, study methods are relatively concentrated. The literature using descriptive analysis and empirical tests is quite much and the literature through theoretical analysis is relatively less. Furthermore, little literature has used theoretical analysis and empirical tests in one paper, which is lack of economic analysis of inner logic for credit behavior of rural households. At the same time, policy implication is to be excavated. Third, the depth should be enlarged, which is embodied in welfare effect analysis of credit behavior of rural households. For example, much literature simply does empirical analysis to test the effect of credit behavior on rural households' income. However, quite little literature has discussed the operating mechanism.
Based on the above analysis, distinguishing those who have no credit demand from those who have credit demand strictly is the primary core problem when studying credit behavior of rural households. This thesis only focuses on those who have credit demand. And study of credit channel, credit usage and impact of credit behavior on income is the most important and meaningful. On the basis of previous literature, this thesis intends to focus on and solve the following three problems through the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical test. First, due to the prevalence of credit constraints in rural area, credit behavior is passive result. Then, how to give reasonable economic explanation of the preference for formal channel and informal channel? How to explore the inner logic of phenomenon formation and do some related empirical tests? Besides, in order to improve rural households'preference for formal channel, how to design targeted rural public policy and financial policy? Second, as rational rural household, why does he prefer to borrow money for living expenses? The related problem is in what circumstances will rural household choose productive credit or living credit? In particular, in addition to the consumption function of dealing with temporary or necessary expenditure, how to give corresponding explanation for the living credit choice through economics theory? This will help to more deeply and systematically inspect rational economic person behavior motivation of living credit choice of rural household. Third, under today's realistic background, the differences of employment structure, scale of production, mode of operation, planting structure between rural households are becoming more and more apparent. In order to improve income, how should we analyze the influence mechanism of credit behavior on rural households'income? In other words, what are the mechanism and path? Are there any differences between agricultural income and nonagri cultural income? And what are the corresponding policy implications?
The overall goal of this paper is to focus on rural households who have credit demand. On the basis of rural financial theory, rural household economic theory and transaction cost theory, this thesis will explain credit channel preference and credit usage choice respectively. Then, influence mechanism of credit behavior on rural households'income will be discussed deeply. Finally, econometric models will be established to test the theoretical analysis using field survey and statistical data. And the main research contents and conclusions are as follow.
Part1:credit behavior characteristic analysis of rural households with credit demand
This part will analyze the credit constraints condition when rural households apply formal credit and the reasons of why not applying. The key work is to describe the channels, usage, scale, and interest rates of credit and summarize the basic characteristics. Finally, some preliminary analysis and interpretation will be given. According to the Results, informal channels are still the main choices of rural households in general. However, the role of formal channels is growing in some developed regions and rural households with better economic conditions. Due to the restriction of external economic environment and ability of rural households themselves, the majority of rural households are lack of necessary investment opportunities. As a result, the credit usage is mainly living expenditure. At the same time, the importance of productive credit is tending to growing. At last, Interest-free is still the main form of rural household credit. And interest-bearing credit is become more and more frequent. As the deepening of marketing process, rural households'preferences are changing from relationship type to contract type slowly.
Part2:theoretical analysis and empirical test of rural households'preference for credit channel
Based on the premise assumes of credit constraints, theoretical model about preference for credit channel and transaction cost is established. The relative level of formal credit channel and informal credit channel will decide rural households' preference. Then, transaction cost is quantified by rural households'social capital and rural financial supply service for empirical test. The research results show that social capital can play a signal screening effect helping to reduce the degree of information asymmetry between rural households and credit supplier. And this kind of function is very important for formal credit channel. The role of different personal social capital and community social capital has significant differences, and the role of personal social capital is less than community social capital. The increasing of rural financial service supply will reduce transaction cost and promote the more convenient access to formal credit channel, which includes strengthening promotion of rural financial products and services, growth of credit service staff, improvement of effective cover rate in rural area, enlargement of rural households' total credit scale.
Part3:theoretical analysis and empirical test of rural households'credit usage choice
With the introduction of rural households' family utility concept, an intertemporal model of credit usage choice and family utility function is constructed. Then it could be proved that both productive and living credit usage can increase the level of family utility. Finally, an econometric model will be used to identify the main factors deciding rural households' credit usage choice. The results show that rural households with relatively larger production expenditure will tend to choose production credit usage. The effect of daily expenditure is not obvious. Rural households will have to deal with unfixed sum of living expenses through credit. Rural households tend to need more living credit capital, which have more intercourse expenditure, or having children, or having the aged. Besides, the demand of living credit capital is much larger than productive credit capital in both developed and developing rural area.
Part4:theoretical analysis and empirical test of impact of rural households' credit behavior on income
On the basis of Mackinnon model, an intertemporal general equilibrium model is established to analyze mechanism of action and degree of productive and living credit on rural households' income. According to new classic economic theory and rural households' economic theory, this part will explain influence mechanism of rural households' credit behavior on income following the analytical path of technology boundary, technology portfolio combination and factor optimization. After considering individual and family characteristics and regional factors, this part has analyzed the impact of rural households' credit behavior on income. The research results show that credit capital has important effect on family income, agricultural income and nonagricultural income. And the role of credit capital on nonagricultural income is a little more important than agricultural income. Credit channels are of importance to family income and agricultural income, which the effect of formal credit channel is much larger than informal credit channel. Despite different impact mechanism, both productive and living credit usage could improve income, which the former is more important in the short term. Credit interest rate has some negative effects on family income, agricultural and nonagrincultural income, but the effects are not obvious.
从国家政策层面来看,自2004年起,连续七年的中央一号文件均高度关注农村金融,党的十七届三中全会也明确强调要建立现代农村金融制度,这既充分肯定了农村金融的重要性,也说明现有农村金融体系仍难以满足农村地区金融需求,亟待深化改革与发展。在这种背景下,讨论农业和农村经济问题,非常有必要重视农户这一研究对象。作为我国农村地区社会经济的微观基础,农户经济行为特征及其与农村金融改革发展的关系,始终是农村金融问题研究的基本内容之一。回顾以往的农村金融改革不难发现一个共性特征：遵循自上而下的改革路径,过多强调金融深化本身,对需求主体的考虑较为缺乏,相应的政策目标自然难以实现。就农户层面而言,只有从农村金融需求的主体——实际存在借贷需求的农户入手,以高效率、快捷化和低成本为导向,为那些有借贷需求且具有偿还能力的农户提供金融支持,才能更加有效地推进农村金融改革,促进农村金融深化和农村金融机构支农目标的实现。
近年来,农户借贷行为是国内外研究者广泛讨论的主题,并取得了较为丰富的研究成果。对已有文献进行整理后发现以下特点：一是研究内容比较全面,对农户借贷行为的各个方面均不同程度地有所涉及,借贷行为特征有比较多的共识,构成后续研究的重要基础；二是研究方法相对集中,对农户借贷行为的描述性分析和实证检验较多,从理论上进行解释的文献偏少,同时将理论分析与实证分析结合起来的更少,因而缺少对农户借贷行为内在逻辑的经济学分析,政策含义有待挖掘；三是研究深度有待拓展,这突出体现在对农户借贷行为的福利效应分析方面,以对收入的影响为例,尽管分析方法有差异,但较多文献的普遍做法是,简单地将农户借贷行为与收入纳入计量模型,对农户借贷行为影响收入的作用机制考虑相对不足,甚至是忽略。
基于上述分析,在研究农户借贷行为时首先需要明确的问题是,在研究对象上严格区分有借贷需求和没有借贷需求的农户,其中,本文的重点研究对象是“有借贷需求的农户”。农户借贷渠道、借贷用途以及借贷行为对收入的影响是最为重要也是最有意义的三个方面。为此,本文拟在借鉴已有文献的基础上,通过理论分析与实证检验相结合的方式,重点研究和解决以下三个问题：第一,在农村地区普遍存在信贷约束的条件下,作为被动借贷的结果,如何从理论上对农户正规借贷渠道偏好和非正规借贷渠道偏好进行合理的经济学解释,探究这一现象形成的内在逻辑,并进行相应的实证检验?如何设计有针对性的农村公共政策和金融政策,以提高农户的正规借贷渠道偏好?第二,作为富有理性的农户,为什么在借贷用途选择上,比较倾向于将借贷资金用于生活性支出?与此相关的问题是,农户在何种情况下会选择生产性借贷或生活性借贷?特别地,农户选择不能直接增加收入水平的生活性借贷,除了应对临时或必要开支的消费功能以外,如何从经济学理论上进行相应的解释,以便更为深入系统地考察农户生活性借贷选择的理性经济人行为动机?第三,在农户就业结构、生产规模、经营方式、种植结构等差异日趋明显的现实背景下,围绕提高收入这一目标,应该如何从理论上认识农户借贷行为对收入的影响机制?换言之,借贷行为的发生和借贷资金的获得,究竟通过何种机制和途径影响农户收入?农户借贷行为对家庭农业收入和非农收入的影响是否存在差异?其相应的政策含义是什么?
本文研究的总目标是,以有借贷需求的农户为研究对象,以农村金融理论、农户经济理论和交易成本理论等为基础,分别从交易成本视角解释农户借贷渠道偏好,以及从家庭效用视角考察农户借贷用途选择；在此基础上,深入阐述农户借贷行为影响收入的作用机制,并综合运用实地调查和统计数据,构建计量经济模型对上述理论分析结果进行相应的实证检验,为设计优化农户借贷行为、改善农户融资机会、促进农户收入增长及福利水平提高的农村金融改革路径和政策措施提供理论与经验依据。与此相对应,本文的主要研究内容与基本结论具体如下：
研究内容一：有借贷需求的农户借贷行为特征分析
以有借贷需求的农户为分析对象,在分析农户申请正规借贷时信贷约束状况与未申请正规借贷原因的基础上,重点从借贷渠道、借贷用途、借贷金额、借贷利率等方面,具体描述和分析我国农户借贷行为现状,总结其基本特点,并进行初步分析和解释。研究结果发现,总体而言,非正规渠道仍然是现阶段我国有借贷需求农户的主要选择,资金短缺与信贷约束仍是目前我国农村地区较为普遍的现象,但在一些发达地区以及家庭经济条件较好的农户中,正规借贷渠道的作用有所提高。由于外部经济环境以及农户自身能力的限制,较多农户缺乏必要的生产经营投资机会,此时用于生活性支出依然是农户借贷的主要目的；不过,随着农业新品种新技术的日益广泛使用和非农就业机会的日趋多元化,上述状况也在不断发生变化,农户生产性借贷正在变得更加突出和重要。无息借贷仍是农户借贷的主要形式,但有息借贷正在变得更加普遍,这说明随着市场化进程的深入,农户逐渐由关系型借贷转向契约型借贷。
研究内容二：农户借贷渠道偏好的理论分析与实证检验
基于农户受到信贷约束的前提假定,构造农户借贷渠道偏好与交易成本关系的理论模型,由此证明,如果农户面临的正规借贷渠道交易成本过高,则农户将转向非正规借贷渠道。在此基础上,从农户社会资本和农村金融服务供给两个方面量化交易成本,从而检验农户社会资本的提高和农村金融服务供给的增加,是否有助于提高农户的正规借贷渠道偏好,即农户的借贷需求更多地被农村正规金融机构所接受。研究结果发现：社会资本可以起到信号甄别的作用,从而降低农户与借贷资金供给方之间的信息不对称,这在非正规借贷渠道已经得到验证,不同类型的个人社会资本和社区社会资本作用存在显著差异,且个人社会资本的作用小于社区社会资本；而增加农村金融服务供给,包括加强农村金融产品和服务宣传、增加服务农户的信贷工作人员、提高对农村地区的有效覆盖率、增加对农户贷款总规模等,有助于降低交易成本,进而增强农户接触正规借贷渠道的方便程度,提高农户正规借贷渠道资金的可获得性。
研究内容三：农户借贷用途选择的理论分析与实证检验
引入农户家庭效用概念,由此构建跨期的农户借贷用途选择与家庭效用函数模型,从理论上阐明生产性借贷用途和生活性借贷用途均有助于提高农户家庭效用；而农户对生产性借贷用途和生活性借贷用途的选择,主要由家庭生产生活特征和面临的生产投资机会决定。基于理论分析结果,建立计量经济模型考察农户家庭生产生活特征和生产投资机会对农户借贷用途选择的影响。研究结果发现：生产开支比较大的农户,更倾向于选择生产性借贷；日常生活开支对借贷用途选择的影响不明显,当发生非固定的大笔生活开支时,农户往往需要借贷来应对；人情往来支出多的农户、家里有子女上学和老人的农户,对生活性借贷资金的需求明显比较大；发达地区和相对落后地区的农户对生活性借贷资金的需求都要大于生产性借贷资金。
研究内容四：农户借贷行为影响收入的理论分析与实证检验
以麦金农模型为基础,首先构建跨期农户生产投资——消费决策的一般均衡模型,考察生产性借贷与生活性借贷对农户收入的影响机理及影响程度；然后综合运用新古典经济理论和农户经济理论,遵循农户技术边界、技术组合和要素优化的分析思路,由此阐释借贷行为对农户收入的影响机制。在考虑农户个体及家庭特征和地区因素影响的基础上,构建多元回归模型分别考察农户借贷行为对家庭总收入、农业收入和非农收入的影响方向及影响程度,并比较其差异。研究结果发现：当农户存在资金短缺进而有借贷需求时,能否获得借贷资金对这一部分农户家庭总收入增长具有重要影响,且借贷资金对农户非农收入增长的作用要大于对农业收入增长的作用,但这种差异比较小；借贷渠道对农户家庭总收入和农业收入增长也起着重要作用,且正规借贷渠道所起的作用要明显大于非正规借贷渠道；尽管影响机理不同,生产性借贷与生活性借贷都有助于提高农户收入,且在短期生产性借贷用途的作用要明显大于生活性借贷用途；借贷利率对农户农业收入、非农收入和家庭总收入的增长具有一定的负面作用,但这种作用很不显著。
Rural households who have credit demand could further optimize the existing family resource allocation efficiency, if they are able to access to necessary external funding support. Then they may capture the grasp investment opportunities of production and operation and improve income level in the short term. Of course, they could also improve family life consumption level and repay the money through future efforts, which is the way to achieve maximum family utility in the long term. But in reality, due to the prevalence of credit constraints in rural areas (Stiglitz et al.,1981), rural households who have credit demand are facing bad rural financial market environment. And this has become one of the key factors blocking rural households' income growth. According to Du Xiaoshan (2010) investigation results, there are only27%rural households who can get loan from formal channels. There are still about40%rural households who have credit demand can not get loan from formal channels. Unmet credit demand gap of rural households accounted for56.72%of total loan demand (Cheng Yu,2010). Therefore, it's urgent to strengthen rural financial support. The reduction of threshold access to rural formal financial market and improvement of financing opportunities is very important for rural households who have credit demand.
From the perspective of national policy, the No.1file released by the central government of China had pay close attention to rural finance since2004. The Third Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee of CPC also emphasized the establishment of modern rural financial system, which means the importance of rural finance. At the same time, the existing rural financial system is still difficult to meet rural financial demand which is necessary to deepen reform and develop. It's very necessary to pay special attention to rural households when discussing agriculture and rural economy problems. As micro foundation of society and economy in China's rural area, the economic behavior characteristics of rural households and its' relationship with reform and development of rural finance is always one of the core contents about rural finance research. The common feature of all previous rural financial reforms is following reform path from top to bottom and having too much emphasis on financial deepening itself. Due to little consideration of demand subject, it is very hard to achieve the policy targets. The reform of rural finance must emphasize the rural households who have credit demand, which should be guided by high efficiency, quick service and low cost. Financial support must be supplied to those who have credit demand and has the ability to pay. Only in this way could more effectively promote rural financial reform and rural financial deepening and realize the preset targets rural financial institutions.
In recent years, credit behavior of rural households has been widely discussed by domestic and foreign researchers. As a result, comparatively rich research results have been achieved. The characteristics of existing literatures are as follow. First, many aspects of credit behavior of rural households have been studied and a lot of common sense has been achieved, which is important basis of the future study. Second, study methods are relatively concentrated. The literature using descriptive analysis and empirical tests is quite much and the literature through theoretical analysis is relatively less. Furthermore, little literature has used theoretical analysis and empirical tests in one paper, which is lack of economic analysis of inner logic for credit behavior of rural households. At the same time, policy implication is to be excavated. Third, the depth should be enlarged, which is embodied in welfare effect analysis of credit behavior of rural households. For example, much literature simply does empirical analysis to test the effect of credit behavior on rural households' income. However, quite little literature has discussed the operating mechanism.
Based on the above analysis, distinguishing those who have no credit demand from those who have credit demand strictly is the primary core problem when studying credit behavior of rural households. This thesis only focuses on those who have credit demand. And study of credit channel, credit usage and impact of credit behavior on income is the most important and meaningful. On the basis of previous literature, this thesis intends to focus on and solve the following three problems through the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical test. First, due to the prevalence of credit constraints in rural area, credit behavior is passive result. Then, how to give reasonable economic explanation of the preference for formal channel and informal channel? How to explore the inner logic of phenomenon formation and do some related empirical tests? Besides, in order to improve rural households'preference for formal channel, how to design targeted rural public policy and financial policy? Second, as rational rural household, why does he prefer to borrow money for living expenses? The related problem is in what circumstances will rural household choose productive credit or living credit? In particular, in addition to the consumption function of dealing with temporary or necessary expenditure, how to give corresponding explanation for the living credit choice through economics theory? This will help to more deeply and systematically inspect rational economic person behavior motivation of living credit choice of rural household. Third, under today's realistic background, the differences of employment structure, scale of production, mode of operation, planting structure between rural households are becoming more and more apparent. In order to improve income, how should we analyze the influence mechanism of credit behavior on rural households'income? In other words, what are the mechanism and path? Are there any differences between agricultural income and nonagri cultural income? And what are the corresponding policy implications?
The overall goal of this paper is to focus on rural households who have credit demand. On the basis of rural financial theory, rural household economic theory and transaction cost theory, this thesis will explain credit channel preference and credit usage choice respectively. Then, influence mechanism of credit behavior on rural households'income will be discussed deeply. Finally, econometric models will be established to test the theoretical analysis using field survey and statistical data. And the main research contents and conclusions are as follow.
Part1:credit behavior characteristic analysis of rural households with credit demand
This part will analyze the credit constraints condition when rural households apply formal credit and the reasons of why not applying. The key work is to describe the channels, usage, scale, and interest rates of credit and summarize the basic characteristics. Finally, some preliminary analysis and interpretation will be given. According to the Results, informal channels are still the main choices of rural households in general. However, the role of formal channels is growing in some developed regions and rural households with better economic conditions. Due to the restriction of external economic environment and ability of rural households themselves, the majority of rural households are lack of necessary investment opportunities. As a result, the credit usage is mainly living expenditure. At the same time, the importance of productive credit is tending to growing. At last, Interest-free is still the main form of rural household credit. And interest-bearing credit is become more and more frequent. As the deepening of marketing process, rural households'preferences are changing from relationship type to contract type slowly.
Part2:theoretical analysis and empirical test of rural households'preference for credit channel
Based on the premise assumes of credit constraints, theoretical model about preference for credit channel and transaction cost is established. The relative level of formal credit channel and informal credit channel will decide rural households' preference. Then, transaction cost is quantified by rural households'social capital and rural financial supply service for empirical test. The research results show that social capital can play a signal screening effect helping to reduce the degree of information asymmetry between rural households and credit supplier. And this kind of function is very important for formal credit channel. The role of different personal social capital and community social capital has significant differences, and the role of personal social capital is less than community social capital. The increasing of rural financial service supply will reduce transaction cost and promote the more convenient access to formal credit channel, which includes strengthening promotion of rural financial products and services, growth of credit service staff, improvement of effective cover rate in rural area, enlargement of rural households' total credit scale.
Part3:theoretical analysis and empirical test of rural households'credit usage choice
With the introduction of rural households' family utility concept, an intertemporal model of credit usage choice and family utility function is constructed. Then it could be proved that both productive and living credit usage can increase the level of family utility. Finally, an econometric model will be used to identify the main factors deciding rural households' credit usage choice. The results show that rural households with relatively larger production expenditure will tend to choose production credit usage. The effect of daily expenditure is not obvious. Rural households will have to deal with unfixed sum of living expenses through credit. Rural households tend to need more living credit capital, which have more intercourse expenditure, or having children, or having the aged. Besides, the demand of living credit capital is much larger than productive credit capital in both developed and developing rural area.
Part4:theoretical analysis and empirical test of impact of rural households' credit behavior on income
On the basis of Mackinnon model, an intertemporal general equilibrium model is established to analyze mechanism of action and degree of productive and living credit on rural households' income. According to new classic economic theory and rural households' economic theory, this part will explain influence mechanism of rural households' credit behavior on income following the analytical path of technology boundary, technology portfolio combination and factor optimization. After considering individual and family characteristics and regional factors, this part has analyzed the impact of rural households' credit behavior on income. The research results show that credit capital has important effect on family income, agricultural income and nonagricultural income. And the role of credit capital on nonagricultural income is a little more important than agricultural income. Credit channels are of importance to family income and agricultural income, which the effect of formal credit channel is much larger than informal credit channel. Despite different impact mechanism, both productive and living credit usage could improve income, which the former is more important in the short term. Credit interest rate has some negative effects on family income, agricultural and nonagrincultural income, but the effects are not obvious.
引文
1 杜晓山,当前农村金融存在四大问题,人民政协报,2010年11月2日第6版。
1 杜晓山,当前农村金融存在四大问题,人民政协报,2010年11月2日第6版。
2 泗洪17亿民间借贷秘链,经济观察报,2011年8月15日第7版。
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2 泗洪17亿民间借贷秘链,经济观察报,2011年8月15日第7版。
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