碳关税对中国工业品出口贸易影响效应研究
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摘要
随着经济全球化的不断发展，全球气候变暖严重影响了人类自然生存环境。二氧化碳过度排放引起国际社会广泛关注，控制碳排放、缓解气候变暖成为国际社会关注的焦点和热点。在削减碳排放方面，《京都议定书》规定发达国家和发展中国家承担“共同但有区别的责任”。发展中国家不承担减排任务，发达国家承担减排责任和履行减排义务，并向发展中国家提供减排援助。
发达国家认为，发达国家的减排措施必然会增加高耗能产品的生产成本。为降低产品生产成本，部分发达国家高耗能、高污染企业转移到发展中国家从事生产活动。这种污染产业跨国转移现象导致生产要素在全球范围内重新配置，增加了非减排国家碳排放。发展中国家因此而成为环境污染避难所，继而产生碳泄漏或者碳转移问题，从而使《京都议定书》限制减少温室气体排放的效果不理想。因此，近年来发达国家把碳泄露和本国产业竞争力作为理论研究和政策重点，要求包括中国在内的发展中国家承担碳减排义务，并提出对来自于非减排国家的进口高耗能产品征收CO2排放关税。
欧美发达国家以保护全球气候环境、防止碳泄漏为名提出碳关税征收政策，强调通过对高耗能产品征收碳关税能够减少或避免碳泄漏，解决全球气候变暖及二氧化碳减排问题。碳关税被发达国家作为限制发展中国家温室气体排放的重要措施，实质是利用碳关税贸易壁垒手段抑制发展中国家高耗能产品出口，并保护发达国家高能耗产业国际竞争力。
目前，我国是世界最大出口国和碳排放国。发达国家实施碳关税征收政策，包括中国在内的发展中国家将被实施强制减排约束。碳关税征收使中国能源密集型出口产品面临严峻挑战，主要表现为：降低低成本竞争优势、缩小出口市场范围、减少出口贸易额、恶化贸易条件、加剧贸易摩擦、损害出口企业经济效益、影响中国工业品出口贸易发展，进而阻碍中国工业化发展进程和抑制中国经济快速增长。
从国内外对碳排放、碳泄漏，以及碳关税对出口贸易的影响方面的研究来看，大部分研究从发达国家的经济利益角度分析碳关税的作用，结存仍然存在分歧。从发展中国家经济增长和发展的角度分析碳关税的带来的风险和机遇，还存在进一步的研究空间。通过整理分析前期的国内外相关文献，发现碳关税与国际贸易之间的研究仍很不足，特别是碳关税与中国工业品出口贸易关系的研究非常有限。
现阶段，在全球气候环境日益恶化的背景下，探讨如何在保护气候环境的前提下发展经济，如何利用贸易政策影响和保护气候环境，环境治理政策和国际贸易政策之间存在何种联系，分析碳关税对出口贸易发展的影响途径和传导机制，对应对发达国家碳关税征收和促进我国出口贸易稳定发展，具有积极的理论和现实指导意义。因此，本文研究目的在于通过研究碳排放、碳关税对中国工业品出口贸易产生的影响，对中国工业品出口贸易应对碳关税冲击，进行低碳出口贸易转型给予理论支持，并从多个角度、多个层次提出积极应对碳关税的对策措施。论文所做的主要研究工作和研究结论是：
1.梳理和分析了碳排放、碳关税与出口贸易的相关理论及国内外研究现状，以环境外部性理论和国际贸易理论为主线，重新梳理了论文主要依据的环境和贸易相关理论，从中探求二者的联动机理，为中国工业品出口贸易的低碳发展提供理论和和实证分析依据。
2.论文界定了碳关税的概念，并分析碳关税的多种属性。从理论层面运用经济学局部与一般均衡理论，分析了碳关税对出口贸易发展的影响途径和传导机制。同时对碳关税背后的国家间政治经济利益博弈进行了深入剖析，为研究碳关税对中国工业品出口贸易的影响因素和影响效果提供比较系统的理论支撑。
3.从现实层面研究了中国工业品出口贸易历史发展特征与对外依存度，以及中国工业品出口贸易碳排放现状和存在问题。由于中国既是世界第一大出口国，也是世界最大碳排放国，同时还是隐含碳净出口国，导致中国工业品出口贸易是高碳型出口贸易，出口工业制成品的生产和加工过程造成了中国碳排放大幅增长。
4.运用计量经济学VAR模型，利用1991~2011年数据，实证分析了碳关税对中国工业品出口贸易、中国机械及运输设备出口贸易的影响程度。模型分析了变量之间的长期均衡关系、Granger因果关系，实证结果表明，中国工业品和机械及运输设备出口与碳关税的关联性较强，短期内碳关税对中国工业制成品和机械及运输设备出口贸易冲击剧烈，长期缓慢负向增加。工业制成品出口贸易随着的碳关税而变化，其弹性值为3.69，即碳关税增长1%，则出口额减少3.69%。
5.梳理了发达国家发展低碳出口贸易的实践历程和成功经验，并对其进行了对比分析与经验总结，为我国工业品出口贸易低碳发展起到借鉴作用。发达国家都把低碳经济和低碳出口贸易作为新经济增长点，并给予本国低碳产业和出口贸易强有力支持和发展引导。发达国家的低碳产业和低碳出口贸易发展战略，将改变世界经济的增长轨迹和发展方向，对世界经济格局的改变将会产生重要影响。
6.对碳关税背景下中国工业品出口贸易进行了SWOT分析。分析认为从短期看，碳关税是减缓国内经济增长和弱化中国工业品出口贸易竞争优势的压力。然而从长期来看，碳关税也是促进我国经济增长模式转型的动力，并成为我国低碳经济发展新的增长点的契机。在全球气候环境恶化与世界经济持续低迷的背景下，我国发展低碳经济和低碳工业品出口贸易是大势所趋。由此本文从国家环境外交活动、政府行为、企业行为、出口贸易结构和碳排放交易市场构建等方面，提出中国工业品出口贸易应对碳关税的具体策略。
With the rapid development of economic globalization, climate environment has beenseriously changed by global warming. Excessive carbon emissions cause widespread concernin the international society. It is becoming a focus of the international society to controlcarbon emissions and to alleviate climate warming. In cutting carbon emissions, the KyotoProtocol suggests that developed and developing countries should have the common butdifferentiated responsibilities. The task of reducing carbon emissions should be undertaken bydeveloped countries, rather than the developing countries. Meanwhile, developed countriesshould help developing countries reduce their carbon emissions.
The carbon emissions reduction measures will increase the production cost ofenergy-intensive products and reduce competitiveness in developed countries. In order toreduce the production cost, some developed countries shifted energy-intensive products todeveloping countries. This cross-border shifting of pollution industries led to thereconfiguration of productive elements in the global scope, and increases carbon emissions ofdeveloping countries. Therefore, developing countries become the refuge of developedcountries keeping away from environmental pollution, and then carbon leakage occurred. Forthese reasons, the Kyoto Protocol agreement is not satisfactory to reduce greenhouse gasemissions. So, in recent years, developed countries focus on trade and environment policyresearch of carbon leakage and industrial competitiveness. They require developing countriesincluding China to bear the carbon emissions reduction obligations.
Carbon tariff is a levy of carbon emissions imported by developed countries onenergy-intensive products. It is becoming an excuse for carbon tariff policy proposed by theUS to protect the global climate environment and to prevent carbon leakage. They emphasizethat the carbon tariff of energy-intensive products can reduce or avoid carbon leakage, andsolve the problems of the global climate change. In essence, developed countries want to limitthe export of energy-intensive products of developing countries through border carbonadjustments, and protect the international competitiveness of their energy-intensive products.
At present, China is the largest exporter and carbon emitter in the world. If carbon tariffis implemented, developing countries including China will be forced to reduce the carbonemissions. The export of energy-intensive products of China will face serious challenges, including mainly as follows: decreasing the competitive advantage on the low cost, damagingprofits of export enterprises, increasing trade frictions, reducing the export markets and theexport trade, and thus hinder the process of China's industrialization and inhibit the rapideconomic growth of China.
With respect to carbon leakage and competitiveness, most of the researches analyzed theeffect of carbon tariff on the economic benefits of developed countries, but the conclusionsare different. Based on the economic growth of developing countries, there are furtherresearch space in the analysis of the risks and opportunities brought by carbon tariff. Throughthe analysis of the related literatures, the research between carbon tariff and internationaltrade was found to be still insufficient; especially the study on the relationship betweencarbon tariff and industrial product export of China is very limited.
Nowadays, on the background of deteriorated global climate environment, for dealingwith carbon tariff proposed by developed countries and promoting the stable development ofChina export, there are some important theoretical and practical meanings in the followingaspects: how to develop economy under the climate change environment, how to use tradepolicy to protect climate environment, what are the relationships between environmentalpolicy and trade policy? What will happen if carbon tariff is implemented? Therefore, theaims of this study are to analyze the effect of carbon emissions and carbon tariff on China’sindustrial product export, and provide theoretical and practical support for China industrialproduct export to deal with carbon tariff. Countermeasures are suggested to actively respondto carbon tariffs from different angles and levels. The main conclusions of this study are asfollowing:
1. According to present researches of carbon emissions and relevant theories, the theorieshad been sorted out based on externality theory, factor endowment theory, and trade theory.Through exploring the linkage between environment and trade theories, the theoretical andempirical analysis had been provided for development of China industrial products export.
2. The paper analyzes the various traits of carbon tariff. Economic partial and generalequilibrium theory is used to analyze transmission mechanism of carbon tariff. The resultssuggest that carbon tariff will have negative impact on developing country’s export. At thesame time, the political and economical interest confliction behind carbon tariff is analyzed.
3. From reality perspective, the paper analyzes degree of dependence on foreign tradeand carbon emission problems of China industrial product export. Since China is the largest exporter and largest carbon emitter in the world, the producing process of export productsincrease China's carbon emissions.
4. By using econometric VAR model, it is completed to analyze empirically the long-runequilibrium relationship between carbon tariff and China industrial product export during1991~2011. The empirical study shows that China industrial product export has a strongrelation with carbon tariff. In short-term, carbon tariff has severe negative impact on Chinaindustrial product export. In long-term, the negative influence of carbon tariff will increaseslowly. The result indicates that export will change with carbon tariff; the elasticity is3.69,namely carbon tariff increase by1%, while exports reduce by3.69%.
5. The successful experience of low carbon export in developed countries is analyzed. Itis completed to take the comparative analysis between different developed countries, and toprovide a reference for the low carbon development of China industrial products export. Lowcarbon development strategy of export in developed countries will change the growthdirection of the world economy, and have an important impact on the world economic pattern.
6. SWOT analysis is completed on the industrial product export of China under thebackground of carbon tariff. Results suggest that in the short term, carbon tariff will slowdomestic economic growth and weaken the international trade competitive advantage ofChina. However, in the long run, carbon tariff will be the drivers to promote thetransformation of China's economic growth pattern. Under the background of climate change,it is a trend to develop China's low-carbon economy. The paper puts forward some concretestrategies responding to carbon tariff in terms of environmental diplomacy, governmentbehavior, enterprise behavior, and export structure.
发达国家认为，发达国家的减排措施必然会增加高耗能产品的生产成本。为降低产品生产成本，部分发达国家高耗能、高污染企业转移到发展中国家从事生产活动。这种污染产业跨国转移现象导致生产要素在全球范围内重新配置，增加了非减排国家碳排放。发展中国家因此而成为环境污染避难所，继而产生碳泄漏或者碳转移问题，从而使《京都议定书》限制减少温室气体排放的效果不理想。因此，近年来发达国家把碳泄露和本国产业竞争力作为理论研究和政策重点，要求包括中国在内的发展中国家承担碳减排义务，并提出对来自于非减排国家的进口高耗能产品征收CO2排放关税。
欧美发达国家以保护全球气候环境、防止碳泄漏为名提出碳关税征收政策，强调通过对高耗能产品征收碳关税能够减少或避免碳泄漏，解决全球气候变暖及二氧化碳减排问题。碳关税被发达国家作为限制发展中国家温室气体排放的重要措施，实质是利用碳关税贸易壁垒手段抑制发展中国家高耗能产品出口，并保护发达国家高能耗产业国际竞争力。
目前，我国是世界最大出口国和碳排放国。发达国家实施碳关税征收政策，包括中国在内的发展中国家将被实施强制减排约束。碳关税征收使中国能源密集型出口产品面临严峻挑战，主要表现为：降低低成本竞争优势、缩小出口市场范围、减少出口贸易额、恶化贸易条件、加剧贸易摩擦、损害出口企业经济效益、影响中国工业品出口贸易发展，进而阻碍中国工业化发展进程和抑制中国经济快速增长。
从国内外对碳排放、碳泄漏，以及碳关税对出口贸易的影响方面的研究来看，大部分研究从发达国家的经济利益角度分析碳关税的作用，结存仍然存在分歧。从发展中国家经济增长和发展的角度分析碳关税的带来的风险和机遇，还存在进一步的研究空间。通过整理分析前期的国内外相关文献，发现碳关税与国际贸易之间的研究仍很不足，特别是碳关税与中国工业品出口贸易关系的研究非常有限。
现阶段，在全球气候环境日益恶化的背景下，探讨如何在保护气候环境的前提下发展经济，如何利用贸易政策影响和保护气候环境，环境治理政策和国际贸易政策之间存在何种联系，分析碳关税对出口贸易发展的影响途径和传导机制，对应对发达国家碳关税征收和促进我国出口贸易稳定发展，具有积极的理论和现实指导意义。因此，本文研究目的在于通过研究碳排放、碳关税对中国工业品出口贸易产生的影响，对中国工业品出口贸易应对碳关税冲击，进行低碳出口贸易转型给予理论支持，并从多个角度、多个层次提出积极应对碳关税的对策措施。论文所做的主要研究工作和研究结论是：
1.梳理和分析了碳排放、碳关税与出口贸易的相关理论及国内外研究现状，以环境外部性理论和国际贸易理论为主线，重新梳理了论文主要依据的环境和贸易相关理论，从中探求二者的联动机理，为中国工业品出口贸易的低碳发展提供理论和和实证分析依据。
2.论文界定了碳关税的概念，并分析碳关税的多种属性。从理论层面运用经济学局部与一般均衡理论，分析了碳关税对出口贸易发展的影响途径和传导机制。同时对碳关税背后的国家间政治经济利益博弈进行了深入剖析，为研究碳关税对中国工业品出口贸易的影响因素和影响效果提供比较系统的理论支撑。
3.从现实层面研究了中国工业品出口贸易历史发展特征与对外依存度，以及中国工业品出口贸易碳排放现状和存在问题。由于中国既是世界第一大出口国，也是世界最大碳排放国，同时还是隐含碳净出口国，导致中国工业品出口贸易是高碳型出口贸易，出口工业制成品的生产和加工过程造成了中国碳排放大幅增长。
4.运用计量经济学VAR模型，利用1991~2011年数据，实证分析了碳关税对中国工业品出口贸易、中国机械及运输设备出口贸易的影响程度。模型分析了变量之间的长期均衡关系、Granger因果关系，实证结果表明，中国工业品和机械及运输设备出口与碳关税的关联性较强，短期内碳关税对中国工业制成品和机械及运输设备出口贸易冲击剧烈，长期缓慢负向增加。工业制成品出口贸易随着的碳关税而变化，其弹性值为3.69，即碳关税增长1%，则出口额减少3.69%。
5.梳理了发达国家发展低碳出口贸易的实践历程和成功经验，并对其进行了对比分析与经验总结，为我国工业品出口贸易低碳发展起到借鉴作用。发达国家都把低碳经济和低碳出口贸易作为新经济增长点，并给予本国低碳产业和出口贸易强有力支持和发展引导。发达国家的低碳产业和低碳出口贸易发展战略，将改变世界经济的增长轨迹和发展方向，对世界经济格局的改变将会产生重要影响。
6.对碳关税背景下中国工业品出口贸易进行了SWOT分析。分析认为从短期看，碳关税是减缓国内经济增长和弱化中国工业品出口贸易竞争优势的压力。然而从长期来看，碳关税也是促进我国经济增长模式转型的动力，并成为我国低碳经济发展新的增长点的契机。在全球气候环境恶化与世界经济持续低迷的背景下，我国发展低碳经济和低碳工业品出口贸易是大势所趋。由此本文从国家环境外交活动、政府行为、企业行为、出口贸易结构和碳排放交易市场构建等方面，提出中国工业品出口贸易应对碳关税的具体策略。
With the rapid development of economic globalization, climate environment has beenseriously changed by global warming. Excessive carbon emissions cause widespread concernin the international society. It is becoming a focus of the international society to controlcarbon emissions and to alleviate climate warming. In cutting carbon emissions, the KyotoProtocol suggests that developed and developing countries should have the common butdifferentiated responsibilities. The task of reducing carbon emissions should be undertaken bydeveloped countries, rather than the developing countries. Meanwhile, developed countriesshould help developing countries reduce their carbon emissions.
The carbon emissions reduction measures will increase the production cost ofenergy-intensive products and reduce competitiveness in developed countries. In order toreduce the production cost, some developed countries shifted energy-intensive products todeveloping countries. This cross-border shifting of pollution industries led to thereconfiguration of productive elements in the global scope, and increases carbon emissions ofdeveloping countries. Therefore, developing countries become the refuge of developedcountries keeping away from environmental pollution, and then carbon leakage occurred. Forthese reasons, the Kyoto Protocol agreement is not satisfactory to reduce greenhouse gasemissions. So, in recent years, developed countries focus on trade and environment policyresearch of carbon leakage and industrial competitiveness. They require developing countriesincluding China to bear the carbon emissions reduction obligations.
Carbon tariff is a levy of carbon emissions imported by developed countries onenergy-intensive products. It is becoming an excuse for carbon tariff policy proposed by theUS to protect the global climate environment and to prevent carbon leakage. They emphasizethat the carbon tariff of energy-intensive products can reduce or avoid carbon leakage, andsolve the problems of the global climate change. In essence, developed countries want to limitthe export of energy-intensive products of developing countries through border carbonadjustments, and protect the international competitiveness of their energy-intensive products.
At present, China is the largest exporter and carbon emitter in the world. If carbon tariffis implemented, developing countries including China will be forced to reduce the carbonemissions. The export of energy-intensive products of China will face serious challenges, including mainly as follows: decreasing the competitive advantage on the low cost, damagingprofits of export enterprises, increasing trade frictions, reducing the export markets and theexport trade, and thus hinder the process of China's industrialization and inhibit the rapideconomic growth of China.
With respect to carbon leakage and competitiveness, most of the researches analyzed theeffect of carbon tariff on the economic benefits of developed countries, but the conclusionsare different. Based on the economic growth of developing countries, there are furtherresearch space in the analysis of the risks and opportunities brought by carbon tariff. Throughthe analysis of the related literatures, the research between carbon tariff and internationaltrade was found to be still insufficient; especially the study on the relationship betweencarbon tariff and industrial product export of China is very limited.
Nowadays, on the background of deteriorated global climate environment, for dealingwith carbon tariff proposed by developed countries and promoting the stable development ofChina export, there are some important theoretical and practical meanings in the followingaspects: how to develop economy under the climate change environment, how to use tradepolicy to protect climate environment, what are the relationships between environmentalpolicy and trade policy? What will happen if carbon tariff is implemented? Therefore, theaims of this study are to analyze the effect of carbon emissions and carbon tariff on China’sindustrial product export, and provide theoretical and practical support for China industrialproduct export to deal with carbon tariff. Countermeasures are suggested to actively respondto carbon tariffs from different angles and levels. The main conclusions of this study are asfollowing:
1. According to present researches of carbon emissions and relevant theories, the theorieshad been sorted out based on externality theory, factor endowment theory, and trade theory.Through exploring the linkage between environment and trade theories, the theoretical andempirical analysis had been provided for development of China industrial products export.
2. The paper analyzes the various traits of carbon tariff. Economic partial and generalequilibrium theory is used to analyze transmission mechanism of carbon tariff. The resultssuggest that carbon tariff will have negative impact on developing country’s export. At thesame time, the political and economical interest confliction behind carbon tariff is analyzed.
3. From reality perspective, the paper analyzes degree of dependence on foreign tradeand carbon emission problems of China industrial product export. Since China is the largest exporter and largest carbon emitter in the world, the producing process of export productsincrease China's carbon emissions.
4. By using econometric VAR model, it is completed to analyze empirically the long-runequilibrium relationship between carbon tariff and China industrial product export during1991~2011. The empirical study shows that China industrial product export has a strongrelation with carbon tariff. In short-term, carbon tariff has severe negative impact on Chinaindustrial product export. In long-term, the negative influence of carbon tariff will increaseslowly. The result indicates that export will change with carbon tariff; the elasticity is3.69,namely carbon tariff increase by1%, while exports reduce by3.69%.
5. The successful experience of low carbon export in developed countries is analyzed. Itis completed to take the comparative analysis between different developed countries, and toprovide a reference for the low carbon development of China industrial products export. Lowcarbon development strategy of export in developed countries will change the growthdirection of the world economy, and have an important impact on the world economic pattern.
6. SWOT analysis is completed on the industrial product export of China under thebackground of carbon tariff. Results suggest that in the short term, carbon tariff will slowdomestic economic growth and weaken the international trade competitive advantage ofChina. However, in the long run, carbon tariff will be the drivers to promote thetransformation of China's economic growth pattern. Under the background of climate change,it is a trend to develop China's low-carbon economy. The paper puts forward some concretestrategies responding to carbon tariff in terms of environmental diplomacy, governmentbehavior, enterprise behavior, and export structure.
引文
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