完善房地产估价方法的研究
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摘要
由于全球经济一体化和信息高速公路的发展，在全球市场占有一席之地的房地产业，国际化趋势日益明显。入世后，中国经济与世界经济联系更加密切，而房地产业的发展与经济发展呈高度的正比例关系，因而，我国的房地产业受国际经济全局和区域变化的影响也会越来越明显。房地产估价业作为我国的一个新兴行业，无论在制度、政策、法规等方面，还是理论方法研究方面，与国外一些发达国家相比还不够完善。因此，加入WTO一方面将促进我国房地产中介行业向国际惯例靠拢，另一方面也将使我国的中介行业受到国外中介机构入住的强烈冲击，面临严峻挑战。鉴于上述背景，笔者认为加强房地产估价理论与方法的研究，将定性与定量、静态与动态分析相结合，对于提高房地产估价业的科技含量，提高我国房地产估价业的国际竞争力，有着理论和实践意义。为此，本文针对目前国内外房地产估价理论与方法的现状，以及我国现有的房地产估价方法在应用中存在的问题，较系统地研究了房地产估价常用的三大估价方法：市场比较法、收益法和成本法的估价方法及其应用的完善，内容包括基于模糊数学的市场比较法、基于灰色预测理论的收益法以及建筑物价值减价修正方法的量化研究。
(1)应用模糊数学的贴近度概念来解决市场比较法应用中的可比实例的科学选择问题，用模糊数学的综合评判法来确定区域因素和个别因素修正系数，最后再次应用贴近度和择近原则较科学地解决了估价结果的合理确定问题。
(2)对收益法中的资本化率内涵进行了剖析，提出了资本化率应是行业基准收益率和机会利率之和，且小于行业内部收益率的观点。由于房地产寿命长久性的特点，决定了其收益年期也较长，因此，本文首次提出了应用灰色预测理论来解决估价对象未来纯收益预测问题的观点，克服了以前常用的线性回归、长期趋势法等预测方法的缺点。
(3)通过考虑时间和物价变动因素，对成本法中旧有房地产估价的折旧方法进行了改进，并应用AHP法来量化影响成新率的各项因素的影响值大小。
With the integrating of global economy and the development of information thruway, the real estate, which possesses a territory in global market, is internationalized more and more obviously. With joining in WTO, Chinese economy intimately contact with international economy. For the development of real estate is in
high direct proportion with economic development, real estate in our country will be influenced by all and even part of the international economy change more and more obviously. As a new industry, real estate appraisal, is less perfect than some foreign developed country either on system, police, code or on study of theory and approaches.
Joining in WTO will accelerate the real estate agency in our country to approach the international routine in one hand, on the other hand it will make our agency to face a serious challenge. AS this, the author thinks that enhancing the study of real estate appraisal theory and technique, connecting the qualitative with quantitative and
static state with dynamic analysis, are all in favor of increasing the technological content of real estate appraisal and international competitive power in the academic and practical significance. So in this thesis, I studied three appraisal approaches: market data approach -income approach and cost approach, which are in common use by
the numbers through aiming at the domestic and overseas actuality and the questions exited in our present appraisal techniques. The contents of this thesis conclude in market data approach based on fuzzy mathematics, income approach based on grayer forecast theory and the quantitative study of buildings' value depreciation modify.
(1) Firstly applying the notion of appropinquity in fuzzy mathematics to solve the scientific choice of optional instances. Secondly using synthetical judge to confirm the amendatory coefficient of territorial and separate factor. Lastly applying appropinquity and choosing close principle again to rationally confirm the appraisal result.
(2) Anatomising the connote of capitalization rate and arising a view that capitalization rate should be the add of industry fiducial return and opportunity interest and less than industry IRR. Based on real estate having
long life, it has long return life. So there is a firstly advanced view in this thesis that is to use grayer forecast theory to resolve the net return's forecast of appraisal object. The new technique overcame the defect of other forecast technique such as linear regress and long trend etc.
(3) Through taking account of the influences of time and price fluctuant, I mended the old method of discount calculation and used AHP to make the influences quantitative.
(1)应用模糊数学的贴近度概念来解决市场比较法应用中的可比实例的科学选择问题，用模糊数学的综合评判法来确定区域因素和个别因素修正系数，最后再次应用贴近度和择近原则较科学地解决了估价结果的合理确定问题。
(2)对收益法中的资本化率内涵进行了剖析，提出了资本化率应是行业基准收益率和机会利率之和，且小于行业内部收益率的观点。由于房地产寿命长久性的特点，决定了其收益年期也较长，因此，本文首次提出了应用灰色预测理论来解决估价对象未来纯收益预测问题的观点，克服了以前常用的线性回归、长期趋势法等预测方法的缺点。
(3)通过考虑时间和物价变动因素，对成本法中旧有房地产估价的折旧方法进行了改进，并应用AHP法来量化影响成新率的各项因素的影响值大小。
With the integrating of global economy and the development of information thruway, the real estate, which possesses a territory in global market, is internationalized more and more obviously. With joining in WTO, Chinese economy intimately contact with international economy. For the development of real estate is in
high direct proportion with economic development, real estate in our country will be influenced by all and even part of the international economy change more and more obviously. As a new industry, real estate appraisal, is less perfect than some foreign developed country either on system, police, code or on study of theory and approaches.
Joining in WTO will accelerate the real estate agency in our country to approach the international routine in one hand, on the other hand it will make our agency to face a serious challenge. AS this, the author thinks that enhancing the study of real estate appraisal theory and technique, connecting the qualitative with quantitative and
static state with dynamic analysis, are all in favor of increasing the technological content of real estate appraisal and international competitive power in the academic and practical significance. So in this thesis, I studied three appraisal approaches: market data approach -income approach and cost approach, which are in common use by
the numbers through aiming at the domestic and overseas actuality and the questions exited in our present appraisal techniques. The contents of this thesis conclude in market data approach based on fuzzy mathematics, income approach based on grayer forecast theory and the quantitative study of buildings' value depreciation modify.
(1) Firstly applying the notion of appropinquity in fuzzy mathematics to solve the scientific choice of optional instances. Secondly using synthetical judge to confirm the amendatory coefficient of territorial and separate factor. Lastly applying appropinquity and choosing close principle again to rationally confirm the appraisal result.
(2) Anatomising the connote of capitalization rate and arising a view that capitalization rate should be the add of industry fiducial return and opportunity interest and less than industry IRR. Based on real estate having
long life, it has long return life. So there is a firstly advanced view in this thesis that is to use grayer forecast theory to resolve the net return's forecast of appraisal object. The new technique overcame the defect of other forecast technique such as linear regress and long trend etc.
(3) Through taking account of the influences of time and price fluctuant, I mended the old method of discount calculation and used AHP to make the influences quantitative.
引文
1 柴强．房地产估价理论与方法．中国物价出版社，2001
2 包亚钧 汪洪涛．房地产经济论．同济大学出版社，1998
3 王要武 罗兆烈 孙平．房地产市场．中国计划出版社，1999
4 沈振闻．新编房地产投资理论与实务．中国物价出版社，1998
5 王克忠 张维然 杨国诚．房地产估价理论与方法．高等教育出版社，1998
6 王洪卫 简德三 孙明章．房地产经济学．上海财经大学出版社，1997
7 徐国详 胡清友．统计预测和决策．上海财经大学出版社，1998
8 黄贤金 吴群 吴克宁 陈龙乾．不动产估价．中国林业出版社，1998
9 陈修年 李启明．房地产估价方法与实务，东南大学出版社，1998
10 金慰祖 许谨良．美国房地产理论与实务．经济科学出版社，1993
11 罗龙昌．房地产经营管理．暨南大学出版社，1995年12月
12 毕宝德．最新房地产投资与估价运作手册．中国发展出版社，1994
13 杨继瑞．中国城市地价探索．高等教育出版社，1997
14 李铃．中国地产价格与评估．中国人民大学出版社，1999
15 王万茂．房地产经济学．东南大学出版社，1994
16 冯文权．经济预测和决策技术．3．武汉大学出版社，1994
17 冯忠铨．经济预测与决策．中国财政经济出版社，1995
18 李铁映 张听．预测决策方法．辽宁科学技术出版社，1984
19 暴奉贤．经济预测的原理和方法．广东人民出版社，1984
20 张渝．土地估价理论与实务．企业管理出版社，1992
21 李启明．现代房地产开发与经营．江苏科学技术出版社，1993
22 王菊仙．房地产价格与评估．江苏人民出版社，1993
23 吕华．房地产估价理论与实务．同济大学出版社，1990
24 王彦．房地产价格．中国物价出版社，1993
25 张协奎．房地产价格模糊评估及其应用．房地产评估．1991，9
26 张协奎．房屋折旧方法改进探讨．中国房地产估价师．1998，4
27 张协奎．房屋新旧成色评定的定量方法．中国房地产估价师．1998，2：34-36．
28 董黎明 叶向忠．容积率与房地产价格．中国房地产估价师．1998，2
29 张协奎．房地产估价方法与应用．武汉工业大学出版社，2000
30 董力．现代经济管理预测与决策方法．地震出版社，1995
31 李京文 郑友敬．技术经济手册—理论方法卷，中国科学技术出版社，
1990
32 屠梅曾．房地产投资与评估．上海交通大学出版社，1996
33 陈启浩．模糊值及其在模糊推理中的应用．北京师范大学出版社，2000
34 谢季坚 刘乘平．模糊数学方法及其应用．2．华中理工大学出版社，2000
35 梁运斌．房地产估价：方法、参数与百例精选．经济管理出版社，1996
36 王福振．中国地产开发评估管理实务全书．中国大地出版社，2000
37 全国注册资产评估师考试辅导教材编写组．建筑工程评估基础，中国财政经济出版社，2001
38 陈满雄．不动产估价理论与实务．台湾中华征信所企业股份有限公司出版部，1984
39 谢潮仪 黄进城．不动产经济学导论．台湾茂荣图书有限公司，1993
40 林英彦．不动产估价．台湾文笙书局，1983
41 [英] F．普丽玛．房地产估价导论．胡至廉．中国建筑工业出版社，1996
42 [美]威廉姆．B．布鲁格曼 杰夫瑞．D．费雪．李秉翔 孙鸿飞 钱勇．3．东北财经大学出版社，2000
43 [美]罗纳德·格尔根等．美国资产评估理论与实务．企业管理出版社，1989
44 [美]Douglas M.Bates [加拿大]Donald G.Watts．非线性回归分析及其应用．韦博成等．中国统计出版社，1997
45 David Isaac and Terry Steley. Property Valuation Techniques. Macmillan,1991
46 William Britton,Keith Davies and Tiny Johson. Modern Methods of Valuation of Land, House and Buildings.eighth edition. Estates Gazette, 1989
47 L.L.Lapin. Statistics for Modern Business Decision.3. 1982
48 Morris Hamburg. Statistical Analysis For Decision Making. 4. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich ,Inc, 1983
49 S.Christian Albright. Statistics for Business and Economics. Macmillan Publishing Company, a division of Macmilla ,Inc, 1987
50 Dennis S. Tosh,William B. Rayburn. Fundamentals of Real Estate Appraisal. Dearborn Financial Publishing,Inc,March,2001
51 Jack Rudman. Real Property Appraisal Technician. National Learning Corporation,January, 1994
52 Phil Parnham, C.Rispin. Residential Property Appraisal.Routledge,June,2000
53 Rogo H.Allen. Real Estate Investment and Texation.2.South western publishing CO., 1984
54 R.Barlewe Land Resource Economics The Economics of Real Estate 1986
55 G.Vincent Barrett,John,P. Blair. How to conduct and Analyze Real Estate Market and Feasibility Study, 1998
56 [美]雷利·芭洛维．土地资源经济学．北京农业大学出版社
57 [美]伊利．土地经济学原理．商务印书馆
2 包亚钧 汪洪涛．房地产经济论．同济大学出版社，1998
3 王要武 罗兆烈 孙平．房地产市场．中国计划出版社，1999
4 沈振闻．新编房地产投资理论与实务．中国物价出版社，1998
5 王克忠 张维然 杨国诚．房地产估价理论与方法．高等教育出版社，1998
6 王洪卫 简德三 孙明章．房地产经济学．上海财经大学出版社，1997
7 徐国详 胡清友．统计预测和决策．上海财经大学出版社，1998
8 黄贤金 吴群 吴克宁 陈龙乾．不动产估价．中国林业出版社，1998
9 陈修年 李启明．房地产估价方法与实务，东南大学出版社，1998
10 金慰祖 许谨良．美国房地产理论与实务．经济科学出版社，1993
11 罗龙昌．房地产经营管理．暨南大学出版社，1995年12月
12 毕宝德．最新房地产投资与估价运作手册．中国发展出版社，1994
13 杨继瑞．中国城市地价探索．高等教育出版社，1997
14 李铃．中国地产价格与评估．中国人民大学出版社，1999
15 王万茂．房地产经济学．东南大学出版社，1994
16 冯文权．经济预测和决策技术．3．武汉大学出版社，1994
17 冯忠铨．经济预测与决策．中国财政经济出版社，1995
18 李铁映 张听．预测决策方法．辽宁科学技术出版社，1984
19 暴奉贤．经济预测的原理和方法．广东人民出版社，1984
20 张渝．土地估价理论与实务．企业管理出版社，1992
21 李启明．现代房地产开发与经营．江苏科学技术出版社，1993
22 王菊仙．房地产价格与评估．江苏人民出版社，1993
23 吕华．房地产估价理论与实务．同济大学出版社，1990
24 王彦．房地产价格．中国物价出版社，1993
25 张协奎．房地产价格模糊评估及其应用．房地产评估．1991，9
26 张协奎．房屋折旧方法改进探讨．中国房地产估价师．1998，4
27 张协奎．房屋新旧成色评定的定量方法．中国房地产估价师．1998，2：34-36．
28 董黎明 叶向忠．容积率与房地产价格．中国房地产估价师．1998，2
29 张协奎．房地产估价方法与应用．武汉工业大学出版社，2000
30 董力．现代经济管理预测与决策方法．地震出版社，1995
31 李京文 郑友敬．技术经济手册—理论方法卷，中国科学技术出版社，
1990
32 屠梅曾．房地产投资与评估．上海交通大学出版社，1996
33 陈启浩．模糊值及其在模糊推理中的应用．北京师范大学出版社，2000
34 谢季坚 刘乘平．模糊数学方法及其应用．2．华中理工大学出版社，2000
35 梁运斌．房地产估价：方法、参数与百例精选．经济管理出版社，1996
36 王福振．中国地产开发评估管理实务全书．中国大地出版社，2000
37 全国注册资产评估师考试辅导教材编写组．建筑工程评估基础，中国财政经济出版社，2001
38 陈满雄．不动产估价理论与实务．台湾中华征信所企业股份有限公司出版部，1984
39 谢潮仪 黄进城．不动产经济学导论．台湾茂荣图书有限公司，1993
40 林英彦．不动产估价．台湾文笙书局，1983
41 [英] F．普丽玛．房地产估价导论．胡至廉．中国建筑工业出版社，1996
42 [美]威廉姆．B．布鲁格曼 杰夫瑞．D．费雪．李秉翔 孙鸿飞 钱勇．3．东北财经大学出版社，2000
43 [美]罗纳德·格尔根等．美国资产评估理论与实务．企业管理出版社，1989
44 [美]Douglas M.Bates [加拿大]Donald G.Watts．非线性回归分析及其应用．韦博成等．中国统计出版社，1997
45 David Isaac and Terry Steley. Property Valuation Techniques. Macmillan,1991
46 William Britton,Keith Davies and Tiny Johson. Modern Methods of Valuation of Land, House and Buildings.eighth edition. Estates Gazette, 1989
47 L.L.Lapin. Statistics for Modern Business Decision.3. 1982
48 Morris Hamburg. Statistical Analysis For Decision Making. 4. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich ,Inc, 1983
49 S.Christian Albright. Statistics for Business and Economics. Macmillan Publishing Company, a division of Macmilla ,Inc, 1987
50 Dennis S. Tosh,William B. Rayburn. Fundamentals of Real Estate Appraisal. Dearborn Financial Publishing,Inc,March,2001
51 Jack Rudman. Real Property Appraisal Technician. National Learning Corporation,January, 1994
52 Phil Parnham, C.Rispin. Residential Property Appraisal.Routledge,June,2000
53 Rogo H.Allen. Real Estate Investment and Texation.2.South western publishing CO., 1984
54 R.Barlewe Land Resource Economics The Economics of Real Estate 1986
55 G.Vincent Barrett,John,P. Blair. How to conduct and Analyze Real Estate Market and Feasibility Study, 1998
56 [美]雷利·芭洛维．土地资源经济学．北京农业大学出版社
57 [美]伊利．土地经济学原理．商务印书馆