酸化、压裂措施经济分析方法研究
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摘要
酸化、压裂是油田的重要增产措施，目前已经普遍应用于开发生产中。通过酸化和压裂，可以在一定时期内增加一定的原油产量，因而采取酸化、压裂措施对油田的增产和稳产起到了重要的作用。但是，酸化、压裂的作业费用是十分可观的。如果通过实行酸化、压裂而增加的原油销售收入不足以弥补酸化、压裂作业费和增加的采油成本，就会导致利润减少，影响企业的经济效益。因此为了保证酸化、压裂措施不仅能够促进原油的稳产或增产，同时也能够增加企业利润，就必须对酸化、压裂措施的经济性进行分析和评价。
过去由于石油企业的生产以原油的稳产和增产为主要目标，因而对酸化、压裂措施的经济性并不十分关心。但近年来，随着石油企业改革的不断深入，油田开发企业更加重视经济效益，因此对酸化、压裂措施的经济性也越来越关注。井下酸化、压裂的经济分析的研究这一课题就是在此情况下根据油田开发的需要提出的。
本文以井下酸化、压裂措施为对象，对方案的经济性进行分析。本文根据井下酸化、压裂措施的特点，利用神经网络知识对日增油效果进行预测并提出投资、成本费用的测算方法。
本文根据酸化、压裂有效期较短的特点，在评价时采用差异分析方法，对由于酸化、压裂作业而增加的销售收入和成本费用进行比较，计算差异利润。本文根据盈亏平衡原理对酸化、压裂措施进行经济界限分析，并建立经济界限模型。
本文开发了经济评价系统，并将其应用于实际，因此本文的研究具有一定的创新性和适用性，它将为油田开发决策提供可靠的理论、方法和工具。
Acidification and fracturing is an important measure for increasing oil production, and has been widely used in the exploitation. The oil output can be increased at a certain extent in a period of time through acidification and fracturing, which plays an important role in increasing and maintaining oil output in the oilfield. But its expense is quite considerable. If the added oil revenue by carrying out acidification and fracturing can not meet the added cost, the profit will be decreased and the benefit of the oilfield will be influenced. Therefore, the economic analysis and evaluation on acidification and fracturing must be conducted in order to increase or maintain oil output and increase the profit of the oilfield as well.
Since maintaining and increasing oil production being is a principle objective in the petroleum enterprise in the past, the economical efficiency of acidification and fracturing has not been thought much by the oilfield. But in recent year, along with the continuous deepening of petroleum enterprise reformation, the benefit is thought much of by oil field. And also the economical of acidification and fracturing attract more attention. In terms of the demand of oil field development, the subject of acidification and fracturing economic analysis is put forward.
This paper takes acidification and fracturing measure as an object and analyzes the economical efficiency of the project. According to the characteristic of acidification and fracturing, this paper utilizes nerve network knowledge and predicts daily added oil effect and put forward the estimating method for investment and cost.
According to the characteristic of acidification and fracturing that the availability period is short, this paper adopts odds analysis method and compares the added sales revenue and the according cost of acidification and fracturing, then calculates the odds profit. According to the principle of the balance between profit and loss, the paper analyzes the economic boundaries of acidification and fracturing and establishes the model of the economic boundaries.
This paper develops the system of economic evaluation and applies it into practice. Thus this paper has certainly innovation character and holds applicable character.
过去由于石油企业的生产以原油的稳产和增产为主要目标，因而对酸化、压裂措施的经济性并不十分关心。但近年来，随着石油企业改革的不断深入，油田开发企业更加重视经济效益，因此对酸化、压裂措施的经济性也越来越关注。井下酸化、压裂的经济分析的研究这一课题就是在此情况下根据油田开发的需要提出的。
本文以井下酸化、压裂措施为对象，对方案的经济性进行分析。本文根据井下酸化、压裂措施的特点，利用神经网络知识对日增油效果进行预测并提出投资、成本费用的测算方法。
本文根据酸化、压裂有效期较短的特点，在评价时采用差异分析方法，对由于酸化、压裂作业而增加的销售收入和成本费用进行比较，计算差异利润。本文根据盈亏平衡原理对酸化、压裂措施进行经济界限分析，并建立经济界限模型。
本文开发了经济评价系统，并将其应用于实际，因此本文的研究具有一定的创新性和适用性，它将为油田开发决策提供可靠的理论、方法和工具。
Acidification and fracturing is an important measure for increasing oil production, and has been widely used in the exploitation. The oil output can be increased at a certain extent in a period of time through acidification and fracturing, which plays an important role in increasing and maintaining oil output in the oilfield. But its expense is quite considerable. If the added oil revenue by carrying out acidification and fracturing can not meet the added cost, the profit will be decreased and the benefit of the oilfield will be influenced. Therefore, the economic analysis and evaluation on acidification and fracturing must be conducted in order to increase or maintain oil output and increase the profit of the oilfield as well.
Since maintaining and increasing oil production being is a principle objective in the petroleum enterprise in the past, the economical efficiency of acidification and fracturing has not been thought much by the oilfield. But in recent year, along with the continuous deepening of petroleum enterprise reformation, the benefit is thought much of by oil field. And also the economical of acidification and fracturing attract more attention. In terms of the demand of oil field development, the subject of acidification and fracturing economic analysis is put forward.
This paper takes acidification and fracturing measure as an object and analyzes the economical efficiency of the project. According to the characteristic of acidification and fracturing, this paper utilizes nerve network knowledge and predicts daily added oil effect and put forward the estimating method for investment and cost.
According to the characteristic of acidification and fracturing that the availability period is short, this paper adopts odds analysis method and compares the added sales revenue and the according cost of acidification and fracturing, then calculates the odds profit. According to the principle of the balance between profit and loss, the paper analyzes the economic boundaries of acidification and fracturing and establishes the model of the economic boundaries.
This paper develops the system of economic evaluation and applies it into practice. Thus this paper has certainly innovation character and holds applicable character.
引文
[1] 巢华庆．对21世纪大庆油田开发前沿技术发展的初步思考，石油勘探与开发，2001．6：P6～10
[2] 刘庆，胡文志．大力发展油田稳产新技术实现油田开发的良性循环，内蒙古石油化工，2001．3：P135～136
[3] 黄琳，成金华，李奇明．油井增产措施的经济评价方法，地质技术经济管理，1999．7：P5～8
[4] 韩力群．人工神经网络理论、设计及应用，化学工业出版社，2002．1：P25～28
[5] Jack,M. Aurada. Introduction to Artificial Neural Systems, St. Paul: West Publishing Company, 1992.6
[6] CaiMin, Liqun Han Neural Network Based Computer Leather Matching System. Proc or the IEEE CIPS 97, 万国出版社, 1997.3
[7] 王伟．人工神经网络原理入门与应用，北京航空航天大学出版社，1995．10：P52～54
[8] S. Ahmad, G. Tesuro. Scaling and Generalization in Neural Networks, Proc of 1988 Connectionist Models Summer School, 1989.5
[9] Marilyn McCord Nelson, W.T. Illingworth, A Practical Guide to Neural Nets, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1992.7
[1O] Liqun Han. Initial Weight Selection Methods for Self-Organizing Training, Proc. Of the IEEE CIPS 97, 万国出版社, 1997.7
[11] Tuxuyan. Information Structure and Pattern of Neural Systems, Invited Speech of International Processing, Beijing 1995.8
[12] 张立明．人工神经网络的模型及其应用，复旦大学出版社，1993．6
[13] 阎平凡，黄端旭．人工神经网络——模型、分析与应用，安徽教育出版社，1993．5
[14] 胡守仁，余少波，戴葵．神经网络导论，国防科技大学出版社，1993．9：P45～65
[15] 韩力群．基于白组织神经网络皮革纹理分类．中国皮革，1997．6：11～14
[19] 董万白．油井压裂效果预测分析，国外油田工程(Foreign oilfield engineering)，2001．5：P9～13
[20] 王大力，陈玉英，前馈神经网络用于压裂效果预测，石油物探，2000．9：P121～123
[21] 王维，贺京同．人工神经网络在非线性经济预测中的应用，系统工程学报，2000．6：P202～205
[22] 于洪金，赵俊平，《油气钻井工程经济》，石油工业出版社，2001．4
[24] 巩艳芬．《技术经济学》，哈尔滨工程大学出版社，2001．8
[25] 侯荣华．关于投资方案经济评价中的NPV与IRR的研究，上海海运学院学报，1998．9：P21～26
[26] 傅家骥，仝允桓．《工业技术经济学》，清华大学出版社，1998．7
[27] 胡月亭．差额投资内部收益率法用于方案比选存在问题的质疑，技术经济，1994．5：P22～24
[28] 王兰荣．《技术经济学》，哈尔滨工业大学出版社，1996．9
[29] 黄耀琴，金铁文．动态盈亏平衡点法在油气田开发投资中的应用，西南石油学院学报，2001．8：P4～6
[30] Yu Xuezhang, Li Binwen He Weiguo. Applications of Acid Fracturing Operation in 3rd&4th Tache Oilfields, Petroleum drilling Techniques, 2000.3:P1～7
[31] Guo Wei. Establishment of economic estimating model of casing failure wells and its solution, drilling & production technology, 2001.9:P24～30
[32] 国家计划委投资研究所，建设部标准定额研究所社会评价课题组．投资项目社会评价指南，经济管理出版社，1996．8：P55～78
[33] 吴添祖．《技术经济学概论》，高等教育出版社，1998．6：P89～120
[34] 许晓峰．《技术经济学》，中国发展出版社，1996．5：P78～112
[35] 冯文全．《经济预测的原理与方法》，武汉大学出版社，1986，4：P34～88
[36] 刘三军，寒江国，梁晓飞．喇嘛甸油田开发经济界限的确定，大庆石油地质与开发，2001．8：P44～46
[37] Shao Qiang, Zhao Junping. A study on issues correlative with layer oriented economic evaluation of oil commingling. ROCEEDING OF 2000 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MANAGEMNT SCIENCE & ENGINEERING. 2001.8:P3～6
[38] 邵强，赵俊平，田晓宁．面向油层的合采经济界限分析，数量经济与技术经济研究，2001．7：P23～30
[39] 胡泽，顾三春．一种新的油气田产量预测方法，西南石油学院，天然气工业，1999．11：P96～98
[40] 赵玉萍，王秀芝．经济界限值在油田开发中的应用，大庆石油学院学报，2001．6：P79～81
[2] 刘庆，胡文志．大力发展油田稳产新技术实现油田开发的良性循环，内蒙古石油化工，2001．3：P135～136
[3] 黄琳，成金华，李奇明．油井增产措施的经济评价方法，地质技术经济管理，1999．7：P5～8
[4] 韩力群．人工神经网络理论、设计及应用，化学工业出版社，2002．1：P25～28
[5] Jack,M. Aurada. Introduction to Artificial Neural Systems, St. Paul: West Publishing Company, 1992.6
[6] CaiMin, Liqun Han Neural Network Based Computer Leather Matching System. Proc or the IEEE CIPS 97, 万国出版社, 1997.3
[7] 王伟．人工神经网络原理入门与应用，北京航空航天大学出版社，1995．10：P52～54
[8] S. Ahmad, G. Tesuro. Scaling and Generalization in Neural Networks, Proc of 1988 Connectionist Models Summer School, 1989.5
[9] Marilyn McCord Nelson, W.T. Illingworth, A Practical Guide to Neural Nets, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1992.7
[1O] Liqun Han. Initial Weight Selection Methods for Self-Organizing Training, Proc. Of the IEEE CIPS 97, 万国出版社, 1997.7
[11] Tuxuyan. Information Structure and Pattern of Neural Systems, Invited Speech of International Processing, Beijing 1995.8
[12] 张立明．人工神经网络的模型及其应用，复旦大学出版社，1993．6
[13] 阎平凡，黄端旭．人工神经网络——模型、分析与应用，安徽教育出版社，1993．5
[14] 胡守仁，余少波，戴葵．神经网络导论，国防科技大学出版社，1993．9：P45～65
[15] 韩力群．基于白组织神经网络皮革纹理分类．中国皮革，1997．6：11～14
[19] 董万白．油井压裂效果预测分析，国外油田工程(Foreign oilfield engineering)，2001．5：P9～13
[20] 王大力，陈玉英，前馈神经网络用于压裂效果预测，石油物探，2000．9：P121～123
[21] 王维，贺京同．人工神经网络在非线性经济预测中的应用，系统工程学报，2000．6：P202～205
[22] 于洪金，赵俊平，《油气钻井工程经济》，石油工业出版社，2001．4
[24] 巩艳芬．《技术经济学》，哈尔滨工程大学出版社，2001．8
[25] 侯荣华．关于投资方案经济评价中的NPV与IRR的研究，上海海运学院学报，1998．9：P21～26
[26] 傅家骥，仝允桓．《工业技术经济学》，清华大学出版社，1998．7
[27] 胡月亭．差额投资内部收益率法用于方案比选存在问题的质疑，技术经济，1994．5：P22～24
[28] 王兰荣．《技术经济学》，哈尔滨工业大学出版社，1996．9
[29] 黄耀琴，金铁文．动态盈亏平衡点法在油气田开发投资中的应用，西南石油学院学报，2001．8：P4～6
[30] Yu Xuezhang, Li Binwen He Weiguo. Applications of Acid Fracturing Operation in 3rd&4th Tache Oilfields, Petroleum drilling Techniques, 2000.3:P1～7
[31] Guo Wei. Establishment of economic estimating model of casing failure wells and its solution, drilling & production technology, 2001.9:P24～30
[32] 国家计划委投资研究所，建设部标准定额研究所社会评价课题组．投资项目社会评价指南，经济管理出版社，1996．8：P55～78
[33] 吴添祖．《技术经济学概论》，高等教育出版社，1998．6：P89～120
[34] 许晓峰．《技术经济学》，中国发展出版社，1996．5：P78～112
[35] 冯文全．《经济预测的原理与方法》，武汉大学出版社，1986，4：P34～88
[36] 刘三军，寒江国，梁晓飞．喇嘛甸油田开发经济界限的确定，大庆石油地质与开发，2001．8：P44～46
[37] Shao Qiang, Zhao Junping. A study on issues correlative with layer oriented economic evaluation of oil commingling. ROCEEDING OF 2000 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MANAGEMNT SCIENCE & ENGINEERING. 2001.8:P3～6
[38] 邵强，赵俊平，田晓宁．面向油层的合采经济界限分析，数量经济与技术经济研究，2001．7：P23～30
[39] 胡泽，顾三春．一种新的油气田产量预测方法，西南石油学院，天然气工业，1999．11：P96～98
[40] 赵玉萍，王秀芝．经济界限值在油田开发中的应用，大庆石油学院学报，2001．6：P79～81