企业财务风险预警系统研究
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摘要
目前，财务风险管理已成为财务管理的核心问题。财务风险是企业经营风险的集中体现，并且客观、广泛的存在于企业的全部理财活动中，对企业实现财务目标有重要的意义。财务风险预警系统研究是针对企业财务风险提出的管理系统，其目的是为了提高企业财务管理水平和经济效益，把企业财务管理过程中存在的问题和潜在的风险揭示出来，从源头阻止企业财务危机的发生和减少企业财务危机造成的损失。
本论文依据企业预警管理理论的基本原理，以财务管理理论、风险管理理论为基础，以企业财务风险为研究对象，对企业财务活动过程中各种风险进行预警和防范。首先从企业所处经济环境出发，提出财务风险预警管理问题，阐述了其研究价值和意义，并对国内外相关的理论研究进行了简要综述；其次通过介绍企业财务风险含义、特征等相关内容，界定了对企业财务风险的分类，分析了各类财务风险；第三，阐述企业财务预警系统的理论模型，包括构建原则、工作内容及流程、方法体系。最后以企业资金运动为主线，重点选取一系列指标与财务预警模型结合，并进行实际应用的检验。
研究成果如下：系统分析了各类财务风险的成因机理，构建了财务风险预警评价指标体系，运用多级模糊综合评判法和层次分析法，从定性与定量相结合的角度出发对财务风险进行量化综合评价，建立企业财务风险预警评价系统，最后加以实证分析。
To present, financial risk management is the key question of financial management. Financial risk focus on reflects enterprise-working risk, and objectively consists in management activities. It is the important significance for realizing enterprise financial aim. Its target is to improve the level of enterprise's financial management and economy benefit, and to reveal the question and latent risk in the financial management, and to originally prevent the occur or to decrease the loss of enterprise's financial crisis.
According as enterprise early warning management theory, this thesis is based on theories of financial management, risk management. Taking enterprise financial risk as research subject, this thesis takes precautions against all kinds of financial risk. Firstly, this thesis analyzes the economic circumstances of enterprise and put forward the question of financial risk warning management. Secondly, it gives the research value and significance and the research actuality at home and abroad. Thirdly, author define the enterprise financial kind in this thesis by means of introduce the meaning and Victorianism of enterprise's financial risk and systematically analyze all financial risks. Finally, according to enterprise's capital movement, author selects a series of indexes, and integrates indexes into the model of financial forewarning. Then, author verifies it in practice.
The research achievements of this thesis are mainly embodies in several perspectives as follows: it importantly analyze cause of formation all kinds of financial risk and build financial risk forewarning evaluation index system. Form combining qualitative and quantitative factors point of view, it applied level analysis method and multilevel fuzzy integrative evaluation method to quantitatively evaluate financial risk, and uses an example to demonstrate the model.
本论文依据企业预警管理理论的基本原理，以财务管理理论、风险管理理论为基础，以企业财务风险为研究对象，对企业财务活动过程中各种风险进行预警和防范。首先从企业所处经济环境出发，提出财务风险预警管理问题，阐述了其研究价值和意义，并对国内外相关的理论研究进行了简要综述；其次通过介绍企业财务风险含义、特征等相关内容，界定了对企业财务风险的分类，分析了各类财务风险；第三，阐述企业财务预警系统的理论模型，包括构建原则、工作内容及流程、方法体系。最后以企业资金运动为主线，重点选取一系列指标与财务预警模型结合，并进行实际应用的检验。
研究成果如下：系统分析了各类财务风险的成因机理，构建了财务风险预警评价指标体系，运用多级模糊综合评判法和层次分析法，从定性与定量相结合的角度出发对财务风险进行量化综合评价，建立企业财务风险预警评价系统，最后加以实证分析。
To present, financial risk management is the key question of financial management. Financial risk focus on reflects enterprise-working risk, and objectively consists in management activities. It is the important significance for realizing enterprise financial aim. Its target is to improve the level of enterprise's financial management and economy benefit, and to reveal the question and latent risk in the financial management, and to originally prevent the occur or to decrease the loss of enterprise's financial crisis.
According as enterprise early warning management theory, this thesis is based on theories of financial management, risk management. Taking enterprise financial risk as research subject, this thesis takes precautions against all kinds of financial risk. Firstly, this thesis analyzes the economic circumstances of enterprise and put forward the question of financial risk warning management. Secondly, it gives the research value and significance and the research actuality at home and abroad. Thirdly, author define the enterprise financial kind in this thesis by means of introduce the meaning and Victorianism of enterprise's financial risk and systematically analyze all financial risks. Finally, according to enterprise's capital movement, author selects a series of indexes, and integrates indexes into the model of financial forewarning. Then, author verifies it in practice.
The research achievements of this thesis are mainly embodies in several perspectives as follows: it importantly analyze cause of formation all kinds of financial risk and build financial risk forewarning evaluation index system. Form combining qualitative and quantitative factors point of view, it applied level analysis method and multilevel fuzzy integrative evaluation method to quantitatively evaluate financial risk, and uses an example to demonstrate the model.
引文
[1] 张友棠．现代财务理论及其在财务预警中的应用研究．武汉理工大学报，2000，(2)：77～80
[2] 张毅力．风险基础财务管理研究．北京：中国财政经济出版社，2002
[3] 许谨良．企业风险管理．上海：上海财经大学出版社，2000
[4] 余廉企业预警管理理论．河北：河北科学技术出版社，1999
[5] Didier Van Caller.(1999) Business failure prediction models: What is the theory looking for? Risk and crisis management 5-7 May 1999 international conference.[R]
[6] Mathieu Business.(2002) to words a new early warning system of financial crises (European center bank) working paper series May 2002
[7] Clarence Tan (1999) A study on using artificial neural networks to develop an early warning predictor for credit union financial distress with comparison to probit model CNW Tan November 1999
[8] Altman E.I. (1968): Financial ratios, discriminate analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy, Journal of Finance, 23(4): 589～609
[9] Edward I. Airman.(2000) Predicting financial distress of comp4nies: Revisiting the Z-score and zeta models [J] July 2000
[10] Attman E.I. (1968): Financial ratios, discriminate analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy, Journal of Finance, 23 (4): 589～609
[11] Altman E.I. (1983): Corporate financial distress: a complete guide to predicting, avoiding and dealing with bankruptcy, lst edition, John-Wiley & Sons: New-York.
[12] 周首华．现代财务理论前沿专题．大连：东北财经大学出版社，2000
[13] 周敏等．基于模糊优选和神经网络的企业财务危机预警．管理科学学报，2002，(3)：86-90
[14] 顾晓安．公司财务预警系统的构建．财经论丛，2000，(4)：5～7
[15] 阴留军．现代企业财务失败预警系统的建立．中国地址矿产经济，2001，(2)：42～45
[16] 奈特．风险、不确定性与利润[博士论文]．1926．
[17] 余廉．业预警管理实物．河北：河北科技出版社
[18] 寇同明．企业财务风险及管理．经济管理，2001，(1)：41～42
[19] 王鑫．谈如何建立企业内部风险预警系统．北方经贸，2001(1)：118～120
[20] 宋旭芒．企业预警管理及其运行机制的研究[硕士论文]．浙江：浙江工业大学，2001
[21] 刘表．会计报表分析．北京：中国人民大学出版社，2002
[22] 财政部注册会计师考试办公室．北京：中国财政经济出版社，2003，4
[23] 常大勇．经济管理中的模糊数学方法．北京：北京经济出版社，1995
[24] 吴秉坚．模糊数学及其经济分析．北京：中国标准出版社，1994
[25] 陈功．浅谈企业财务预警系统的构建．华东经济管理，2000，(5)：83～84
[26] 谢家平等．基于ERP的快速反映财务系统研究．机械与电子，2002，(2)：51～55
[27] 尹侠等．上市公司财务预警的实证分析．财经理论与实践，2001，(6)：83～87
[28 张友棠等．财务预警警兆识别系统．武汉理工大学学报．2002，(6)：98～100
[29] 黄岩等．上市公司财务失败预测实证研究．系统工程理论方法应用，2001(1)：45～51
[30] 崔毅．从亚洲金融风暴反观企业风险的传导机理．南方金融，2001，(7)：27～30
[31] 邓明然等．论上市公司财务预警系统．财经理论与实践，2002，(2)：88～89
[32] 闫军等．并购企业财务预警管理系统的建立．经济师，2002，(5)：186～187
[33] 杜兴强．核心能力、风险披露及财务预警系统．中国审计，2002，(6)：46～47
[34] 杨保安等．BP神经网络在企业财务危机预警之应用．预测，2001，(2)：49～55
[35] 戴新民等．财务失败预测模型的思考．华东冶金学院学报．2000，(4)：363～366
[36] 吴小蕾．财务失败的预警与分析．技术经济与管理研究，2001，(4)：57～58
[37] 李小青等．企业财务预警系统及定量分析探讨．会计之友，2000，(1)：28～29
[38] 田高良等．企业财务预警模式和机制的构架．西北大学学报，2002，(5)：91～95
[39] 丁成．上市公司财务预警系统研究．上海财税，2001，(5)32～34
[40] Altman E.I. (1984): The success of business failure prediction models: an international survey, Journal of Banking and Finance, 8:171～198 662, 727～731
[41] Gambol, Katz (1983) : A note on cash flow and classification patterns of financial ratios,The Accounting Review (January) : 105～114
[42] prgenti J. (1976) : Corporate collapse : the causes and symptoms, New-York : John-Wiley
[43] Aziz, Kenyon (1989): Predicting small firm bankruptcy, Small Firm Financial Research Symposium, School of Business and Administrative Sciences, California State University
[44] Cromie S.(1991):The problems experienced by young firms, International Small Business Journal, 9 (May-June) : 43～61
[2] 张毅力．风险基础财务管理研究．北京：中国财政经济出版社，2002
[3] 许谨良．企业风险管理．上海：上海财经大学出版社，2000
[4] 余廉企业预警管理理论．河北：河北科学技术出版社，1999
[5] Didier Van Caller.(1999) Business failure prediction models: What is the theory looking for? Risk and crisis management 5-7 May 1999 international conference.[R]
[6] Mathieu Business.(2002) to words a new early warning system of financial crises (European center bank) working paper series May 2002
[7] Clarence Tan (1999) A study on using artificial neural networks to develop an early warning predictor for credit union financial distress with comparison to probit model CNW Tan November 1999
[8] Altman E.I. (1968): Financial ratios, discriminate analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy, Journal of Finance, 23(4): 589～609
[9] Edward I. Airman.(2000) Predicting financial distress of comp4nies: Revisiting the Z-score and zeta models [J] July 2000
[10] Attman E.I. (1968): Financial ratios, discriminate analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy, Journal of Finance, 23 (4): 589～609
[11] Altman E.I. (1983): Corporate financial distress: a complete guide to predicting, avoiding and dealing with bankruptcy, lst edition, John-Wiley & Sons: New-York.
[12] 周首华．现代财务理论前沿专题．大连：东北财经大学出版社，2000
[13] 周敏等．基于模糊优选和神经网络的企业财务危机预警．管理科学学报，2002，(3)：86-90
[14] 顾晓安．公司财务预警系统的构建．财经论丛，2000，(4)：5～7
[15] 阴留军．现代企业财务失败预警系统的建立．中国地址矿产经济，2001，(2)：42～45
[16] 奈特．风险、不确定性与利润[博士论文]．1926．
[17] 余廉．业预警管理实物．河北：河北科技出版社
[18] 寇同明．企业财务风险及管理．经济管理，2001，(1)：41～42
[19] 王鑫．谈如何建立企业内部风险预警系统．北方经贸，2001(1)：118～120
[20] 宋旭芒．企业预警管理及其运行机制的研究[硕士论文]．浙江：浙江工业大学，2001
[21] 刘表．会计报表分析．北京：中国人民大学出版社，2002
[22] 财政部注册会计师考试办公室．北京：中国财政经济出版社，2003，4
[23] 常大勇．经济管理中的模糊数学方法．北京：北京经济出版社，1995
[24] 吴秉坚．模糊数学及其经济分析．北京：中国标准出版社，1994
[25] 陈功．浅谈企业财务预警系统的构建．华东经济管理，2000，(5)：83～84
[26] 谢家平等．基于ERP的快速反映财务系统研究．机械与电子，2002，(2)：51～55
[27] 尹侠等．上市公司财务预警的实证分析．财经理论与实践，2001，(6)：83～87
[28 张友棠等．财务预警警兆识别系统．武汉理工大学学报．2002，(6)：98～100
[29] 黄岩等．上市公司财务失败预测实证研究．系统工程理论方法应用，2001(1)：45～51
[30] 崔毅．从亚洲金融风暴反观企业风险的传导机理．南方金融，2001，(7)：27～30
[31] 邓明然等．论上市公司财务预警系统．财经理论与实践，2002，(2)：88～89
[32] 闫军等．并购企业财务预警管理系统的建立．经济师，2002，(5)：186～187
[33] 杜兴强．核心能力、风险披露及财务预警系统．中国审计，2002，(6)：46～47
[34] 杨保安等．BP神经网络在企业财务危机预警之应用．预测，2001，(2)：49～55
[35] 戴新民等．财务失败预测模型的思考．华东冶金学院学报．2000，(4)：363～366
[36] 吴小蕾．财务失败的预警与分析．技术经济与管理研究，2001，(4)：57～58
[37] 李小青等．企业财务预警系统及定量分析探讨．会计之友，2000，(1)：28～29
[38] 田高良等．企业财务预警模式和机制的构架．西北大学学报，2002，(5)：91～95
[39] 丁成．上市公司财务预警系统研究．上海财税，2001，(5)32～34
[40] Altman E.I. (1984): The success of business failure prediction models: an international survey, Journal of Banking and Finance, 8:171～198 662, 727～731
[41] Gambol, Katz (1983) : A note on cash flow and classification patterns of financial ratios,The Accounting Review (January) : 105～114
[42] prgenti J. (1976) : Corporate collapse : the causes and symptoms, New-York : John-Wiley
[43] Aziz, Kenyon (1989): Predicting small firm bankruptcy, Small Firm Financial Research Symposium, School of Business and Administrative Sciences, California State University
[44] Cromie S.(1991):The problems experienced by young firms, International Small Business Journal, 9 (May-June) : 43～61