BOT项目特许协议的风险研究
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摘要
面对不充足的公共财政状况和日益增长的基础设施的需求,世界上许多政府正在积极探索实践私人投资于公共基础设施的建设模式，其中Build-Operate-Transfer ( BOT )是一个非常盛行的选择。
BOT(建设--经营--转让) 在基础设施发展中是一个相对新的方法, 它使在诸如道路、桥梁和电站等大型项目中的直接私人投资成为可能。BOT的采购系统已经发展出了几种类似的方法，其中包括项目融资创始PFI (Private-Finance-Initiative)和公私合营PPP (Public-Private-Partnership)。在过去的20多年中，BOT合同在筹集公共基础建设项目所需资金方面被证实是一个有效的方法，这一点在发达国家和发展中国家都是相同的。
在达成BOT特许协议合同之前，来自项目公司和政府部门的各个谈判小组就合同中存在的不确定性因素进行内部风险衡量，评估风险事件。先前的研究主要集中在BOT融资方法的风险分配战略上，而对于风险评估的定量研究和建模方面所做的工作就十分有限了。
本文在对BOT系统及其主要特征讨论分析的基础上，着重进行了BOT风险分析，基于Keeney 和 Raffia所阐述的多属性效用理论（MAUT）提出了BOT项目风险测量和评估的模型，并将该模型应用于BOT特许协议合同的谈判过程的风险分析中并给出了应用实例。
Facing inadequate public financial status and increasing demand on infrastructure facilities, many governments worldwide are exploring new infrastructure procurement routes through private investment in public infrastructure among which the BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) is a very popular option.
BOT is a relatively new approach to infrastructure development, which enables direct private sector investment in large-scale projects such as roads, bridges and power plants. The BOT procurement system has been developed with several similar parallel approaches including Private-Finance-Initiative (PFI) and Public-Private-Partnership (PPP). Over the last 20 years, the BOT contract has proven to be an effective method in financing public infrastructure projects in both developing and developed countries.
Before BOT concession contract agreement, the negotiation groups from both the Concession Company and the government conduct risk assessment internally regarding those uncertain factors existing in the contract, evaluate and the risk events. It appears that previous research particularly focused risk allocation strategies in BOT financing method and limited research has been undertaken in providing a quantitative analysis and modeling approach to evaluate the risks.
This paper analyzes the BOT system and its main features, and critically reviews the concession agreement negotiation. Based on the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) formulated by Keeney and Raffia, a risk measurement and assessment model is developed. A given numerical example proves that decision makers to analyze risks during BOT concession contract negotiations can effectively apply this model.
BOT(建设--经营--转让) 在基础设施发展中是一个相对新的方法, 它使在诸如道路、桥梁和电站等大型项目中的直接私人投资成为可能。BOT的采购系统已经发展出了几种类似的方法，其中包括项目融资创始PFI (Private-Finance-Initiative)和公私合营PPP (Public-Private-Partnership)。在过去的20多年中，BOT合同在筹集公共基础建设项目所需资金方面被证实是一个有效的方法，这一点在发达国家和发展中国家都是相同的。
在达成BOT特许协议合同之前，来自项目公司和政府部门的各个谈判小组就合同中存在的不确定性因素进行内部风险衡量，评估风险事件。先前的研究主要集中在BOT融资方法的风险分配战略上，而对于风险评估的定量研究和建模方面所做的工作就十分有限了。
本文在对BOT系统及其主要特征讨论分析的基础上，着重进行了BOT风险分析，基于Keeney 和 Raffia所阐述的多属性效用理论（MAUT）提出了BOT项目风险测量和评估的模型，并将该模型应用于BOT特许协议合同的谈判过程的风险分析中并给出了应用实例。
Facing inadequate public financial status and increasing demand on infrastructure facilities, many governments worldwide are exploring new infrastructure procurement routes through private investment in public infrastructure among which the BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) is a very popular option.
BOT is a relatively new approach to infrastructure development, which enables direct private sector investment in large-scale projects such as roads, bridges and power plants. The BOT procurement system has been developed with several similar parallel approaches including Private-Finance-Initiative (PFI) and Public-Private-Partnership (PPP). Over the last 20 years, the BOT contract has proven to be an effective method in financing public infrastructure projects in both developing and developed countries.
Before BOT concession contract agreement, the negotiation groups from both the Concession Company and the government conduct risk assessment internally regarding those uncertain factors existing in the contract, evaluate and the risk events. It appears that previous research particularly focused risk allocation strategies in BOT financing method and limited research has been undertaken in providing a quantitative analysis and modeling approach to evaluate the risks.
This paper analyzes the BOT system and its main features, and critically reviews the concession agreement negotiation. Based on the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) formulated by Keeney and Raffia, a risk measurement and assessment model is developed. A given numerical example proves that decision makers to analyze risks during BOT concession contract negotiations can effectively apply this model.
引文
[1] Tiong, L.K.R. Risks and guarantees in BOT tender, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1995, 121(2): 183-188
[2] Tiong, L. K. CSFs in Competitive Tender and Negotiation Model for BOT Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1996, 122(3): 205-211
[3] Wang, S. W., Tiong, R. L. K., Ting, S. K., Chew, D., and Ashley, D. Evaluation and competitive tendering of BOT power plant project in China. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1998, 124(4): 333-341
[4] Yeo, K.T.; Tiong, Robert L.K, Positive management of differences for risk reduction in BOT projects, International Journal of Project Management, 2000,18(4), pp. 257-265.
[5] Tiong, L. K. Comparative Study of BOT Projects, Journal of Management in Engineering, 1990, 6(1): 107-122.
[6] Tiong, L. K. Final Negotiation in Competitive BOT Tender, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1997, 123(1): 6-10
[7] L. Y. Shen, H. Li, Q. M. Li. Alternative Concession Model for BOT contracts projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2002, 128(4): 326-330.
[8] Feng, C.M., and Kang, C.C. Risk Identification and Measurement of BOT Projects. Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 1999, 4(4): 331-350.
[9] A. K. David. Risk modeling in energy contracts between host utilities and BOT plant investors. IEEE Trans on Energy Conversion, 1996, 11(2): 359-366.
[10] W. Xing, F. F. Wu, A game-theoretical model of private power production, Electrical power and Energy Systems, 2001, 23(3): 213-218.
[11] David G Woodward, Use of sensitivity analysis in build-own-operate-transfer project evaluation. International Journal of Project Management, 1995, 18(4): 239-246
[12] Petar Jovanovie. Application of sensitivity analysis in investment project evaluation under uncertainty and risk, International Journal of Project Management, 1999, 17(4): 217-222
[13] Alfredo del Cano, M. Pilar de la Cruz. Integrated methodology for project risk management. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2002, 128(6): 473-485
[14] Bose, U. Davey, A. M., and Olson, D. L. Multi-attribute Utility Methods in Group Decision-Making: Past Applications and Potential for Inclusion in GDSS.
Omega International Journal of Management Science, 1997, 25(6): 691-706
[15] Jia, J. and Dyer, J. S. A Standard Measure of Risk and Risk-Value Models, Management Science, 1996, 42(12): 1691-1705
[16] Keeney, R. L. and Raiffa, H. Decisions with Multiple Objectives Preferences and Value Tradeoffs, University Press, Cambridge, 1993.
[17] Haimes, Y. Y. Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management. John Willy and Sons, Inc., 1998.
[18] Seo, F. and Sakawa, M. Fuzzy Multi-attribute Utility Analysis for Collective Choice. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 1985, 15(1): 45-53
[19] Turner JR, Privatized Infrastructure: the BOT Approach, International Journal of Project Management, 1996, 14(4), pp. 256
[20] Bell, D. E., Risk, Return, and Utility. Management Science, 41:1: 23-30.
[21] 滔文，国际工程谈判，北京：中国建筑工业出版社，1999，103-105
[22] 顾培亮，一种谈判支持系统，决策与决策支持系统，1993，5（2）：1-7
[23] 高析，BOT项目融资模式风险分析，水力发电，2002，00 (004) ，10-14。
[24] 李秀辉 张世英，PPP与城市公共基础设施建设，城市规划，2002，26 (7) ：74-76。
[25] 何伯森 完彩芸，BOT项目的风险分担与合同管理，中国港湾建设，2001，5 (5) ，63-66
[26] 宋床克等，多属性评价方法及发展评述，决策与决策支持系统，1997，07 (04) ：128-132
[27] 张帆 谢剑彬，BOT项目的法律谈判，建筑施工，2003，025 (002) ：148-149
[28] 张水波 王辉，BOT模式项目融资的法律谈判，中国软科学，1999，00 (12) ： 81-84
[29] 陈有安 王学军 蔚维斌，项目融资与风险管理，北京：中国计划出版社，2000，8-13，209-226。
[30] 于九如，投资项目风险分析，北京：机械工业出版社，1999，10-17。
[31] 尔基什·亚诺什，谈判的艺术，上海：世界知识出版社，1992，7-10。
[32] 王雪青，国际工程项目管理，北京：中国建筑工业出版社，2000，162-172。
[33] 李金早 任树本 杜尊亚著，BOT投资方式，北京：中国经济出版社，1996。
[34] 夏何畏 徐轶昆，BOT项目的风险分析，江苏交通工程，1997，00 (001) ：50-53
[35] 陈杭君，项目风险管理与BOT风险研究，电力建设，1996，017 (002) ：55-58
[36] 宋志航 苏立萍，刍议BOT项目中的风险管理，建设监理，2002，00 (002) ：61-63
[37] 卢家仪，卢有杰等，项目融资，北京：清华大学出版社，1998，71-85
[38] 何伯森，国际工程合同与合同管理，北京：中国建筑工业出版社，1999，308-311。
[2] Tiong, L. K. CSFs in Competitive Tender and Negotiation Model for BOT Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1996, 122(3): 205-211
[3] Wang, S. W., Tiong, R. L. K., Ting, S. K., Chew, D., and Ashley, D. Evaluation and competitive tendering of BOT power plant project in China. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1998, 124(4): 333-341
[4] Yeo, K.T.; Tiong, Robert L.K, Positive management of differences for risk reduction in BOT projects, International Journal of Project Management, 2000,18(4), pp. 257-265.
[5] Tiong, L. K. Comparative Study of BOT Projects, Journal of Management in Engineering, 1990, 6(1): 107-122.
[6] Tiong, L. K. Final Negotiation in Competitive BOT Tender, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1997, 123(1): 6-10
[7] L. Y. Shen, H. Li, Q. M. Li. Alternative Concession Model for BOT contracts projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2002, 128(4): 326-330.
[8] Feng, C.M., and Kang, C.C. Risk Identification and Measurement of BOT Projects. Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 1999, 4(4): 331-350.
[9] A. K. David. Risk modeling in energy contracts between host utilities and BOT plant investors. IEEE Trans on Energy Conversion, 1996, 11(2): 359-366.
[10] W. Xing, F. F. Wu, A game-theoretical model of private power production, Electrical power and Energy Systems, 2001, 23(3): 213-218.
[11] David G Woodward, Use of sensitivity analysis in build-own-operate-transfer project evaluation. International Journal of Project Management, 1995, 18(4): 239-246
[12] Petar Jovanovie. Application of sensitivity analysis in investment project evaluation under uncertainty and risk, International Journal of Project Management, 1999, 17(4): 217-222
[13] Alfredo del Cano, M. Pilar de la Cruz. Integrated methodology for project risk management. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2002, 128(6): 473-485
[14] Bose, U. Davey, A. M., and Olson, D. L. Multi-attribute Utility Methods in Group Decision-Making: Past Applications and Potential for Inclusion in GDSS.
Omega International Journal of Management Science, 1997, 25(6): 691-706
[15] Jia, J. and Dyer, J. S. A Standard Measure of Risk and Risk-Value Models, Management Science, 1996, 42(12): 1691-1705
[16] Keeney, R. L. and Raiffa, H. Decisions with Multiple Objectives Preferences and Value Tradeoffs, University Press, Cambridge, 1993.
[17] Haimes, Y. Y. Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management. John Willy and Sons, Inc., 1998.
[18] Seo, F. and Sakawa, M. Fuzzy Multi-attribute Utility Analysis for Collective Choice. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 1985, 15(1): 45-53
[19] Turner JR, Privatized Infrastructure: the BOT Approach, International Journal of Project Management, 1996, 14(4), pp. 256
[20] Bell, D. E., Risk, Return, and Utility. Management Science, 41:1: 23-30.
[21] 滔文，国际工程谈判，北京：中国建筑工业出版社，1999，103-105
[22] 顾培亮，一种谈判支持系统，决策与决策支持系统，1993，5（2）：1-7
[23] 高析，BOT项目融资模式风险分析，水力发电，2002，00 (004) ，10-14。
[24] 李秀辉 张世英，PPP与城市公共基础设施建设，城市规划，2002，26 (7) ：74-76。
[25] 何伯森 完彩芸，BOT项目的风险分担与合同管理，中国港湾建设，2001，5 (5) ，63-66
[26] 宋床克等，多属性评价方法及发展评述，决策与决策支持系统，1997，07 (04) ：128-132
[27] 张帆 谢剑彬，BOT项目的法律谈判，建筑施工，2003，025 (002) ：148-149
[28] 张水波 王辉，BOT模式项目融资的法律谈判，中国软科学，1999，00 (12) ： 81-84
[29] 陈有安 王学军 蔚维斌，项目融资与风险管理，北京：中国计划出版社，2000，8-13，209-226。
[30] 于九如，投资项目风险分析，北京：机械工业出版社，1999，10-17。
[31] 尔基什·亚诺什，谈判的艺术，上海：世界知识出版社，1992，7-10。
[32] 王雪青，国际工程项目管理，北京：中国建筑工业出版社，2000，162-172。
[33] 李金早 任树本 杜尊亚著，BOT投资方式，北京：中国经济出版社，1996。
[34] 夏何畏 徐轶昆，BOT项目的风险分析，江苏交通工程，1997，00 (001) ：50-53
[35] 陈杭君，项目风险管理与BOT风险研究，电力建设，1996，017 (002) ：55-58
[36] 宋志航 苏立萍，刍议BOT项目中的风险管理，建设监理，2002，00 (002) ：61-63
[37] 卢家仪，卢有杰等，项目融资，北京：清华大学出版社，1998，71-85
[38] 何伯森，国际工程合同与合同管理，北京：中国建筑工业出版社，1999，308-311。