国际贸易和国际直接投资对国际冲突的影响研究
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摘要
当今世界,国与国之间的冲突频频发生,在许多国家或地区,虽然表面没有发生明显冲突,但实际上却存在潜在冲突的威胁。当代国际经济与国际政治之间的相互渗透和相互作用十分明显,经贸发展与国际冲突的关系也越发引起学者们的重视。国际贸易和国际直接投资都表现出引发冲突和消减冲突的两面性,研究国际贸易和国际直接投资对国际冲突的净效应,无疑具有重要的意义。在和平和发展成为世界主题的今天,如何营造良好的多边环境成为各国面对的主要问题。中国目前所处的国际环境是一个十字路口,面临不少潜在的冲突威胁。因此,研究贸易和直接投资对国家间冲突的净效应,从而有效利用经济手段来解决国际冲突,实现经济平稳有效地发展,对中国来说具有重要的理论和现实意义。
论文在全面分析了国际贸易和国际直接投资对国际冲突的影响之后,应用两国模型和多国模型,分析得出贸易和直接投资可以减少发起国对目标国的冲突的结论,并说明在经济全球化的条件下贸易和直接投资能更好地消减国际冲突。博弈模型说明,在较多国家参与贸易和直接投资的情况下,贸易和直接投资中的相对收益问题不会成为国际冲突的导火索。在文章的实证分析中,采用亚洲国家以及经济合作与发展组织成员国的数据做联立方程模型,证明了贸易和直接投资对国际冲突的确具有显著的消减作用,能促进国际合作。本文通过建立向量自回归模型做广义脉冲响应和方差分解看出,国际直接投资对国际冲突的消减作用更持久更显著,并且国际贸易与国际直接投资可以呈互补式消减国际冲突。文章提出了能使国际贸易和国际直接投资最大程度发挥平抚国际冲突作用的现实最优条件。最后结合中国实际,分析了中国(大陆)与几个存在冲突的国家和地区间的关系,并对中国的贸易和直接投资发展提出政策建议。
论文的主要创新点在于:将国际贸易和国际直接投资结合起来分析对国际冲突的影响;全面论述了国际贸易、国际直接投资对国际冲突的影响,并提出现实最优条件;改进了国际贸易、国际直接投资消减国际冲突的理论模型;采用了较具体的评估体系和新的国际冲突与合作数据;完善了国际贸易、国际直接投资消减国际冲突的实证检验方法;将国际贸易、国际直接投资消减国际冲突的理论联系中国实际进行分析。
In the world, the conflicts between countries break up continuously. In some economies, though there is no obvious conflict, there still exist some potential conflicts. The interaction of international economics and international politics becomes more remarkable, therefore, the relationship between international trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) and conflict draw much people's attention.Trade and FDI shows two-sided characteristics, one is inducing conflict, the other is mitigating conflict. Under these circumstances, it is very important to look into the relationship between trade, FDI and international conflict. Nowadays, the key of the world is "Peace and Development". Each country is faced in the problem how to establish the peaceful surroundings. So the net effect of trade and FDI on international conflict is worth studying. China now locates in a crossroad, where there is much potential threat of conflict. What's the net effect of trade and FDI on international conflict? How to resolve international conflict by taking good advantage of economic method? That's the topic which is valuable to be researched.
The thesis researches the effect of trade and FDI on international conflict from two aspects. In the theoretical analysis part, the dyads model and multi-country model derives that trade and FDI can cut down conflict between the source country and target country. The more countries in the system, the better effect of trade and FDI are.The game theory model illustrate that, the relative gain problem in the trade and FDI can't be the fuse of international conflict when many countries paticipate trade and FDI. In empirical analysis, the thesis attempted to test the model's conclusion by using panel data of Asia and OECD countries in the 1991-2000 periods. The result is that the trade can mitigate international conflict and promote international cooperation. Through constituting VAR model to do generalise impulse response and variance decomposition, the thesis discovered that the FDI has stronger effect than trade in reducing international conflict. Moreover, trade and FDI could reduce conflict complementarily. The thesis branched up the optimum condition in which trade and FDI could be taken good advantage to reduce international conflict. At last, the thesis provided some suggestion to Chinese trade and FDI combined with China's reality.
The innovation points of this thesis are as follows: First, it combined trade and FDI together when analyze effect on international conflict; Second, it point out the optimum conditions in which trade and FDI could be taken good advantage to reduce international conflict; Third, it revise the theoretical models; Forth, it improved the empirical models; Fifth, it put the theories into Chinese practice.
论文在全面分析了国际贸易和国际直接投资对国际冲突的影响之后,应用两国模型和多国模型,分析得出贸易和直接投资可以减少发起国对目标国的冲突的结论,并说明在经济全球化的条件下贸易和直接投资能更好地消减国际冲突。博弈模型说明,在较多国家参与贸易和直接投资的情况下,贸易和直接投资中的相对收益问题不会成为国际冲突的导火索。在文章的实证分析中,采用亚洲国家以及经济合作与发展组织成员国的数据做联立方程模型,证明了贸易和直接投资对国际冲突的确具有显著的消减作用,能促进国际合作。本文通过建立向量自回归模型做广义脉冲响应和方差分解看出,国际直接投资对国际冲突的消减作用更持久更显著,并且国际贸易与国际直接投资可以呈互补式消减国际冲突。文章提出了能使国际贸易和国际直接投资最大程度发挥平抚国际冲突作用的现实最优条件。最后结合中国实际,分析了中国(大陆)与几个存在冲突的国家和地区间的关系,并对中国的贸易和直接投资发展提出政策建议。
论文的主要创新点在于:将国际贸易和国际直接投资结合起来分析对国际冲突的影响;全面论述了国际贸易、国际直接投资对国际冲突的影响,并提出现实最优条件;改进了国际贸易、国际直接投资消减国际冲突的理论模型;采用了较具体的评估体系和新的国际冲突与合作数据;完善了国际贸易、国际直接投资消减国际冲突的实证检验方法;将国际贸易、国际直接投资消减国际冲突的理论联系中国实际进行分析。
In the world, the conflicts between countries break up continuously. In some economies, though there is no obvious conflict, there still exist some potential conflicts. The interaction of international economics and international politics becomes more remarkable, therefore, the relationship between international trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) and conflict draw much people's attention.Trade and FDI shows two-sided characteristics, one is inducing conflict, the other is mitigating conflict. Under these circumstances, it is very important to look into the relationship between trade, FDI and international conflict. Nowadays, the key of the world is "Peace and Development". Each country is faced in the problem how to establish the peaceful surroundings. So the net effect of trade and FDI on international conflict is worth studying. China now locates in a crossroad, where there is much potential threat of conflict. What's the net effect of trade and FDI on international conflict? How to resolve international conflict by taking good advantage of economic method? That's the topic which is valuable to be researched.
The thesis researches the effect of trade and FDI on international conflict from two aspects. In the theoretical analysis part, the dyads model and multi-country model derives that trade and FDI can cut down conflict between the source country and target country. The more countries in the system, the better effect of trade and FDI are.The game theory model illustrate that, the relative gain problem in the trade and FDI can't be the fuse of international conflict when many countries paticipate trade and FDI. In empirical analysis, the thesis attempted to test the model's conclusion by using panel data of Asia and OECD countries in the 1991-2000 periods. The result is that the trade can mitigate international conflict and promote international cooperation. Through constituting VAR model to do generalise impulse response and variance decomposition, the thesis discovered that the FDI has stronger effect than trade in reducing international conflict. Moreover, trade and FDI could reduce conflict complementarily. The thesis branched up the optimum condition in which trade and FDI could be taken good advantage to reduce international conflict. At last, the thesis provided some suggestion to Chinese trade and FDI combined with China's reality.
The innovation points of this thesis are as follows: First, it combined trade and FDI together when analyze effect on international conflict; Second, it point out the optimum conditions in which trade and FDI could be taken good advantage to reduce international conflict; Third, it revise the theoretical models; Forth, it improved the empirical models; Fifth, it put the theories into Chinese practice.
引文
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