摘要
当今世界,国与国之间的冲突频频发生,在许多国家或地区,虽然表面没有发生明显冲突,但实际上却存在潜在冲突的威胁。当代国际经济与国际政治之间的相互渗透和相互作用十分明显,经贸发展与国际冲突的关系也越发引起学者们的重视。国际贸易和国际直接投资都表现出引发冲突和消减冲突的两面性,研究国际贸易和国际直接投资对国际冲突的净效应,无疑具有重要的意义。在和平和发展成为世界主题的今天,如何营造良好的多边环境成为各国面对的主要问题。中国目前所处的国际环境是一个十字路口,面临不少潜在的冲突威胁。因此,研究贸易和直接投资对国家间冲突的净效应,从而有效利用经济手段来解决国际冲突,实现经济平稳有效地发展,对中国来说具有重要的理论和现实意义。
论文在全面分析了国际贸易和国际直接投资对国际冲突的影响之后,应用两国模型和多国模型,分析得出贸易和直接投资可以减少发起国对目标国的冲突的结论,并说明在经济全球化的条件下贸易和直接投资能更好地消减国际冲突。博弈模型说明,在较多国家参与贸易和直接投资的情况下,贸易和直接投资中的相对收益问题不会成为国际冲突的导火索。在文章的实证分析中,采用亚洲国家以及经济合作与发展组织成员国的数据做联立方程模型,证明了贸易和直接投资对国际冲突的确具有显著的消减作用,能促进国际合作。本文通过建立向量自回归模型做广义脉冲响应和方差分解看出,国际直接投资对国际冲突的消减作用更持久更显著,并且国际贸易与国际直接投资可以呈互补式消减国际冲突。文章提出了能使国际贸易和国际直接投资最大程度发挥平抚国际冲突作用的现实最优条件。最后结合中国实际,分析了中国(大陆)与几个存在冲突的国家和地区间的关系,并对中国的贸易和直接投资发展提出政策建议。
论文的主要创新点在于:将国际贸易和国际直接投资结合起来分析对国际冲突的影响;全面论述了国际贸易、国际直接投资对国际冲突的影响,并提出现实最优条件;改进了国际贸易、国际直接投资消减国际冲突的理论模型;采用了较具体的评估体系和新的国际冲突与合作数据;完善了国际贸易、国际直接投资消减国际冲突的实证检验方法;将国际贸易、国际直接投资消减国际冲突的理论联系中国实际进行分析。
In the world, the conflicts between countries break up continuously. In some economies, though there is no obvious conflict, there still exist some potential conflicts. The interaction of international economics and international politics becomes more remarkable, therefore, the relationship between international trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) and conflict draw much people's attention.Trade and FDI shows two-sided characteristics, one is inducing conflict, the other is mitigating conflict. Under these circumstances, it is very important to look into the relationship between trade, FDI and international conflict. Nowadays, the key of the world is "Peace and Development". Each country is faced in the problem how to establish the peaceful surroundings. So the net effect of trade and FDI on international conflict is worth studying. China now locates in a crossroad, where there is much potential threat of conflict. What's the net effect of trade and FDI on international conflict? How to resolve international conflict by taking good advantage of economic method? That's the topic which is valuable to be researched.
The thesis researches the effect of trade and FDI on international conflict from two aspects. In the theoretical analysis part, the dyads model and multi-country model derives that trade and FDI can cut down conflict between the source country and target country. The more countries in the system, the better effect of trade and FDI are.The game theory model illustrate that, the relative gain problem in the trade and FDI can't be the fuse of international conflict when many countries paticipate trade and FDI. In empirical analysis, the thesis attempted to test the model's conclusion by using panel data of Asia and OECD countries in the 1991-2000 periods. The result is that the trade can mitigate international conflict and promote international cooperation. Through constituting VAR model to do generalise impulse response and variance decomposition, the thesis discovered that the FDI has stronger effect than trade in reducing international conflict. Moreover, trade and FDI could reduce conflict complementarily. The thesis branched up the optimum condition in which trade and FDI could be taken good advantage to reduce international conflict. At last, the thesis provided some suggestion to Chinese trade and FDI combined with China's reality.
The innovation points of this thesis are as follows: First, it combined trade and FDI together when analyze effect on international conflict; Second, it point out the optimum conditions in which trade and FDI could be taken good advantage to reduce international conflict; Third, it revise the theoretical models; Forth, it improved the empirical models; Fifth, it put the theories into Chinese practice.
引文
[1]张季良.国际关系概论[M].北京:世界知识出版社,1989.57.
[2]罗伯特·吉尔平.国际关系政治经济学[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1989.8.
[3]王逸舟.当代国际政治析论[M].上海:上海人民出版社,1995.12.
[4]柳剑平.国际经济关系政治化问题研究[M].北京:人民出版社,2002.71-73.
[1]柳剑平.国际经济关系政治化问题研究[M].北京:人民出版社,2002.77.
[1]詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著,阎学通等译.争论中的国际关系理论[M].北京:世界知识出版社,2003.200.
[1]畅征,王杏芳等.国际政治学[M]。北京:中国人民大学出版社,1995.262.
[2]同上,262.
[1]倪世雄.当代西方国际关系理论[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2001.273-275.
[1]金应忠,倪世雄.国际关系理论比较研究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1992.313.
[2]同上,315-316.
[1]汉斯·摩根索.又一次“大辩论”:美国的国家利益,参见霍夫曼编.当代国际关系理论[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1990.94.
[1]兹比格纽·布热津斯基.大棋局——美国的首要地位及其地缘战略[M].上海:上海人民出版社,1998.66.
[1]亨廷顿.文明的冲突与世界秩序的重建[M].北京:新华出版社,1998.22.
[1]联合国贸发会议.1998年世界投资报告(中译本)[M].北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社,1999.
[1]肯尼思·沃尔兹.国际政治理论[M].北京:中国人民公安大学出版社,1992.192,185-186.
[2]邓小平文选(第3卷)[M].北京:人民出版社,1993.319.
[1]罗伯特·吉尔平.世界政治中的战争与变革[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1994.217.
[2]樊勇明.西方国际政治经济学[M].上海人民出版社,2002.190.
[3]同上,191.
[1]罗伯特·吉尔平.国际关系政治经济学[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1989.272.
[2]徐乃炯.帝国主义对第三世界国家的控制和剥削(统计资料)[M].北京:人民出版社,1978.347-348.
[1]徐崇利.从南北纷争焦点的转移看国际投资法的晚近发展[J].比较法研究,1997,(1):44-54.
[2]徐乃炯.帝国主义对第三世界国家的控制和剥削(统计资料)[M].北京:人民出版社,1978.351.
[1]尼尔·胡德,斯蒂芬·杨著,叶刚等译.跨国企业经济学[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1990.419-420.
[2]同上。
[1]张宇燕,马杰.共享繁荣:世界经济的现在与未来[M].上海:远东出版社,转引自王逸舟.全球化时代的国际安全[M].上海:译文出版社,1999.195.
[1]亚历山大·温特著,秦亚青译.国际政治的社会理论[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2001.434-435.
[1]曹云华.中国—东盟经济合作中的绝对获益与相对获益[J].亚太经济,2004,(3):54-56.原文引自大卫·A·鲍德温著,肖欢容译.新现实主义与新自由主义[M].浙江:浙江人民出版社,2001.176.
[1]余先予.国际经济法教程[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2000.449.
[1]滕藤,谷源洋.1997~1998世界经济形势分析与预测[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1998.24.
[2]数据来源于UNCTAD网站。
[1]陈同仇,薜荣久.国际贸易[M].北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社,1991.279.
[1]UNCTAD.World Investment Report[R].1996,152-153.
[2]联合国贸发会议.1995年世界投资报告(中译本)[M].北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社,1996.467-468.
[1]李少军.国际政治学概论[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2002.529.
[1]陈学明.中国和平崛起的社会制度基础.载文明的和解:中国和平崛起以后的世界(上海证大研究所编)[M].北京:人民出版社,2005.345.
[1]陈学明.中国和平崛起的社会制度基础.载文明的和解:中国和平崛起以后的世界(上海证大研究所编)[M].北京:人民出版社,2005.315.
[2]詹姆斯·多尔蒂,小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著,阎学通等译.争论中的国际关系理论[M].北京:世界知识出版社,2003.469-470.
[3]邓小平文选(第3卷)[M].北京:人民出版社,1993.104.
[1]由于哈佛大学政策研究中心开发的数据只更新到2004年,因此本章中反映中美、中日、两岸冲突合作关系的图都只绘到2004年。
[1]为与冲突合作数据的年份相对应,本章中反映中美、中日、两岸的贸易和直接投资状况的表格中数据也只写出1990-2004年。
[1]秋田浩之.是加深相互依赖避免矛盾还是加强日美印同盟面对威胁——美国的对华观依然摇摆不定[N].日本经济新闻,2006-02-15.
[1]傅梦孜.中美关系中的经济政治学[J].世界知识,2005,(2):66.
[2]罗伯特·基欧汉,约瑟夫·奈.权力与相互依赖[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2001.11.
[1]孔泉.例行记者会上答记者问[EB/01].http://www.fmprc.gof.cn/chn/xwfw/fyrth/tl_1972024.htm,2005-05-24.
[2]孙秀萍.日本议员看历史心态复杂[N].环球时报,2006-06-26.
[1]Japan and China Need New Framework[N].Japan Times,2002-09-30.
[1]Agarwal,J.P.Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment:A Survey[J].Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,1980,116(4):739-773.
[2]Agtmael,A.W.How Business Has Dealt with Political Risk[J].Financial Executive,1977,44:26-33.
[3]Anderson,J.E.A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation[J].American Economic Review,1979,69(3):106-116.
[4]Anderton,C.H.and Carter,J.R.On Disruption of Trade by War:A Reply to Barbieri and Levy[J].Journal of Peace Research,2001,38(5):625-628.
[5]Angell,S.N.The Great Illusion:A Study of the Relation of Military Power to National Advantage[M].New York:Garland Publishing,1913.
[6]Antkiewicz,A.and Whalley,J.Recent Chinese Buyout Activity and the Implications for Global Architecture[Z].NBER Working Paper No.12072,2006.
[7]Arad,R.W.and Seer H.Peacemaking and Vested Interests:International Economic Transactions[J].International Studies Quarterly,1981,25(9):439-468.
[8]Arad,R.,Seer H.,and Alfred T.,Economics of Peace Making:Focus on the Egyptian-Israeli Situation[M].London:the Macmillan Press,1983.
[9]Axelrod,R.The Evolution of Cooperation[M].New York:Basic Books,1984.
[10]Baldwin,D.Economic Statecraft[M].Princeton,NJ:Princeton University Press,1985.
[11]Barbieri,K.Economic Interdependence:A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict?[J].Journal of Peace Research,1996,33(1):29-49.
[12]Barbieri,K.Economic Interdependence and Militarized Interstate Conflict,1870-1985[D].PhD Dissertation.Binghamton,NY:Department of Political Science,Binghamton University,1995.
[13]Barbieri,K.Risky Business:The Impact of Trade Linkages on Interstate Conflict,1870-1985[Z].in Schneider G.& Weitsman P.A.,eds,Enforcing Cooperation:'Risky'States and the Intergovernmental Management of Conflict.London:Macmillan,1997.
[14]Barbieri,K.Trade and conflict:Assessing the Impact of Interdependence on Militarized Conflict[Z].Unpublised Manuscript,1998.
[15]Barbieri,K.and Schneider,G.Globalization and Peace:Assessing New Directions in the Study of Trade and Conflict[J].Journal of Peace Research,1999,36(4):387-404.
[16]Barbieri,K.and Levy,J.S.Does War Impede Trade? A Response to Anderton and Carter [J].Journal of Peace Research,2001,38(5):619-624.
[17]Barbieri K.The liberal illusion:Does trade promote peace?[M].AnnArbor:University of Michigan Press,2002.
[18]Bearce,D.H.and Eric O.F.Computer Simulations of International Trade and Conflict[Z]. Unpublised Manuscript,2001.
[19]Bearce,D.H.and Eric O.F.Economic Geography,Trade,and War[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,2002,46(3):365-393.
[20]Bearce,D.H.and Omori,S.How Do Commercial Institutions Promote Peace?[J].Journal of Peace Research,2005,42(6):659-678.
[21]Bennett,D.S.and Allan,S.EUGene:A Conceptual Manual[J].International Interactions,2000,26:179-204.
[22]Benson,M.A.Dyadic Hostility and the Ties That Bind:State-to-State versus State-to-System Security and Economic Relationships[J].Journal of Peace Research,2004,41(6):659-676.
[23]Bergeijk,van Peter A.G.Diplomatic Barriers to Trade[J].De Economist,1992,140(1):44-63.
[24]Bhagwati,J.N.The Theory of Immiserising Growth:Further Application[Z].in M.Connolly and A.Swoboda,eds.,International Trade and Money,The Press of Toronto University,1973.
[25]Blomberg,S.B.and Hess,G.D.The Temporal Links between Conflict and Economic Activity[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,2002,46(1):74-90.
[26]Borrus,M.and Zysman J.Industrial Competitiveness and American National Security[Z].Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy Paper BRIEWP_39,1991.
[27]Brewer,T.L.An Issue-Area Approach to the Analysis of MNE-Govemment Relations[J].Journal of International Business Studies,1992,23(2):295-309.
[28]Bremer,S.Dangerous Dyads:Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War,1816-1965[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,1992,36(6):309-341.
[29]Brito,D.and Intriligator,M.Conflict,War,and Redistribution[J].American Political Science Review,1985,79(3):953-957.
[30]Brooks,S.G.The Globalization of Production and the Changing Benefits of Conquest[J].The Journal of Conflict Resolution,1999,43(5):646-670.
[31]Chang,Y.C.,Polachek,S.and Robst,J.Conflict and trade:the relationship between geographic distance and international interactions[J].Journal of Socio-Economics,2004,33(4):491-509.
[32]Chang,Y.C.Economic Interdependence and International Interactions:Impact of Third-Party Trade on Political Cooperation and Conflict[J].Cooperation and Conflict:Journal of the Nordic International Studies Association,2005,40(2):207-232.
[33]Chang,Y.C.Bilateral Trade and International Interactions:The Impact of Foreign Aid and Tariffs on Political Conflict and Cooperation[J].The Journal of Social,Political and Economic Studies,2005,30(1):41-78.
[34]Choate,P.Agents of Influence:How Japan Manipulates America's Political and Economic System[M].New York:Simon and Schuster,1990.
[35]Copeland,D.C.Economic Interdependence and War:A Theory of Trade Expectations[J].International Security,1996,20(4):5-41.
[36]Cox,R.Production,Power,and World Order:Social Forces in the Making of History[M].New York:Columbia University Press,1987.
[37]Crescenzi M.J.C.Economic Exit,Interdependence,and Conflict[J].Journal of Politics,2003,65(3):809-832.
[38]Deardorff,A.V.Testing Trade Theories and Predicting Trade Flows[Z].in Ronald W.J.& Peter B.K.,eds,Handbook of International Economics.Amsterdam:NorthHolland Press,1984.
[39]Deardorff,Alan V.Determinants of bilateral trade:Does gravity work in a neoclassical world?[Z]in the Regionalization of the World Economy,edited by Jeffrey A.Frankel,7-31.Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1998.
[40]Deutsch,K.W.et al.Political Community and the North Atlantic Area[M].Princeton,NJ:Princeton University Press,1957.
[41]Diehl,P.F.Contiguity and Military Escalation in Major Power Rivalries,1816-1980[J].Journal of Politics,1985,47(4):1203-1211.
[42]Domke,W.K.War and the Changing Global System[M].New Haven,CT:Yale University Press,1988.
[43]Dorussen,H.Balance of Power Revisited:A Multi-Country Model of Trade and Conflict [J].Journal of Peace Research,1999,36(4):443-462.
[44]Dorussen,H.Trade and Conflict in Multi-Country Models:A Rejoinder[J].Journal of Peace Research,2002,39(1):115-118.
[45]Dorussen,H.Heterogeneous Trade Interests and Conflict[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,2006,50(1):87-107.
[46]Doyle,M.W.Ways of War and Peace:Realism,Liberalism,and Socialism[M].New York:Norton,1997.
[47]Dunning,J.H.Multinational Enterprises and the Global Economy[M].Mass.:Addison-Wesley,1992.
[48]Encarnation,D.J.Rivals beyond Trade:America versus Japan in Global Competition[M].Cornell Studies in Political Economy,1992.
[49]Fearon,J.D.Rationalist Explanations for War[J].International Organization,1995,49(3):379-414.
[50]Fielding,D.How Does Violent Conflict Affect Investment Location Decisions? Evidence from Israel during the Intifada[J].Journal of Peace Research,2004,41(4):465-484.
[51]Frankel,J.A.,and Romer D.Does Trade Cause Growth?[J].American Economic Review,1999,89(3):379-399.
[52]Frazier,D.,Dixon,G.and Ingersoll,R.Democracies as Third Party Intermediaries in Militarized Interstate Disputes[Z].Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association,2001.
[53]Galia,P.B.The Neglected Dimension of Commercial Liberalism:Economic Cooperation and Transition to Peace[J].Journal of Peace Research,2006,43(3):261-278.
[54]Garrett,G.Global Markets and National Politics:Collision Course or Virtuous Circle[J].International Organization,1998,52(4):787-824.
[55]Gartzke,E.,Li Q.and Boehmer C.Investing in the Peace:Economic Interdependence and International Conflict[J].International Organization,2001,55(2):391-438.
[56]Gartzke,E.Measure for Measure:Concept Operationalization and the Trade Interdependence-Conflict Debate[J].Journal of Peace Research,2003,40(5):553-571.
[57]Gartzke,E.and Li Q.All's Well That Ends Well:A Reply to Oneal,Barbieri and Peters[J].Journal of Peace Research,2003,40(6):727-732.
[58]Gasiorowski,M.J.and Polachek,S.Conflict and Interdependence:East West Trade and Linkages in the Era of Detente[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,1982,26(4):709-729.
[59]Gasiorowski,M.J.Economic Interdependence and International Conflict:Some Cross-sectional Evidence[J].International Studies Quarterly,1986,30(1):23-38.
[60]Geortz,G.and Diehl,P.F.Territorial Changes and International Conflict[M].London:Routledge,1992.
[61]Gilpin,R.U.S.Power and the Multinational Corporation:The Political Economy of Foreign Direct Investment[M].New York:Basic Books,1975.
[62]Gilpin,R.Structural Constraints on Economic Leverage:Market-Type Systems[Z].Strategic Dimension of Economic Behavior,1984,105-128.
[63]Gilpin,R.Global Political Economy:Understanding the International Economic Order [M].Princeton University Press,2001.
[64]Gleditsch,N.P.Geography,Democracy and Peace[J].International Interactions,1995,20(2):297-324.
[65]Gleditsch,K.S.Expanded Trade and GDP data[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,2002,46(5):712-724.
[66]Gochman,C.S.Interstate Metrics:Conceptualizing,Operationalizing and Measuring the Geographic Proximity of States since the Congress of Vienna[J].International Interactions,1991,17(5):93-112.
[67]Goldstein,J.S.A Conflict-Cooperation Scale for WEIS Event Data[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,1992,36(2):369-385.
[68]Goldberg,L.S.and Michael W.K.International Trade and Factor Mobility:An Empirical Investigation[J].NBER Working Papers W7196,1999.
[69]Gowa,J.Allies,Adversaries and International Trade[M].Princeton,NJ:Princeton University Press,1994.
[70]Grieco,J.M.Anarchy and the Limits of Cooperation:A Realist Critique of the Newest Liberal Institutionalism[J].International Organization,1988,42(4):485-529.
[71]Grieco,J.M.Cooperation among Nations.Europe,America,and Non-Tariff Barriers to Trade[M].Ithaca,NY & London:Comell University Press,1990.
[72]Grossman,H.I.and Kim M.Predation and Production[Z].in Michelle R.G.& Skaperdas S.,eds,The Political Economy of Conflict and Appropriation.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996.
[73]Gunder,F.A.Capitalism and Underdevelopment in Latin America:Historical Studies of Chile and Brazil[M].New York:Monthly Review Press,1967.
[74]Haendel,D.Foreign Direct Investment and the Management of Political Risk[M].Boulder:Westview Press,1979.
[75]Harbom,L.and Wallensteen,P.Armed Conflict,1989-2006[J].Journal of Peace Research,2007,44(5):623-634.
[76]Hegre,H.Development and the Liberal Peace:What Does It Take to Be a Trading State?[J].Journal of Peace Research,2000,37(1):5-30.
[77]Hegre,H.Has Commerce Replaced Conquest? Development and Territorial Wars[Z].American Political Science Association,2000.
[78]Hegre,H.Trade Decreases Conflict More in Multi-actor Systems:A Comment on Dorussen [J].Journal of Peace Research,2002,39(1):109-114.
[79]Hegre,H.Size Asymmetry,Trade,and Militarized Conflict[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,2004,48(3):403-429.
[80]Hirschman,A.O.National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade[M].Berkeley,CA:University of California Press,1980.(Originally published in 1945.)
[81]Howell,L.D.Political Risk and Political Risk Loss for Foreign Investment[J].The International Executive,1992,34:485-498.
[82]Huxley,T.ASEAN's Role in the Emerging East Asian Regional Security Architecture[Z].Fragmented Asia:Regional integration and National Disintegration in Pacific Asia,1996.
[83]Hymer,S.H.The International Operations of National Firms:A Study of Direct Foreign Investment[M].Cambridge:MIT Press,1976.
[84]Japan and China Need New Framework IN].Japan Times,2002-9-30.
[85]Jeffrey W.L.Domestic Influences on International Trade Policy:Factor Mobility in the United States,1963 to 1992[J].International Organization,2006,60(4):69-103.
[86]Jensen,N.M.Democratic Governance and Multinational Corporations:Political Regimes and Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment[J].International Organization,2003,57(3):587-616.
[87]Johnson,H.G.International Factor Movement and the Theory of Tariff and Trade[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1967,81:1-38.
[88]Kahler,M.Strategic Uses of Economic Interdependence:Engagement Policies on the Korean Peninsula and Across the Taiwan Strait[J].Journal of Peace Research,2006,43(5):523-541.
[89] Kang, H. and Reuveny, R. Exploring Multi-Country Dynamic Relations between Trade and Conflict [J]. Defence and Peace Economics, 2001, 12:175-196.
[90] Kastner, S. L. When Do Conflicting Political Relations Affect International Trade? [J]. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2007, 51(4):664-688.
[91] Kim, S. Y. Ties That Bind: The Role of Trade in International Conflict Processes, 1950-1992 [D]. PhD Dissertation, Yale University, 1998.
[92] Kim, S. Y. Structure and Change in International Trade and Militarized Conflict: When Is Engagement Constructive? [Z]. Princeton University: Center of International Studies Bendheim Hall, 2000.
[93] Klodt, H. Conflicts and Conflict Resolution in International Anti-trust: Do We Need International Competition Rules? [Z]. Blackwell Publisher Ltd, 2001, 24(7): 877-888.
[94] Knorr, K. The Power of Nations: The Political Economy of International Relations [M]. New York Basic Books, 1975.
[95] Kobrin, S. Managing Political Risk Assessment [M]. Berkley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1982.
[96] Koubi, V. War and Economic Performance [J]. Journal of Peace Research, 2005, 42(1):67-82.
[97] Krustev, V. L. Interdependence and the Duration of Militarized Conflict [J]. Journal of Peace Research, 2006,43(3):243-260.
[98] Lee, H. Foreign Direct Investment and Militarized Interstate Conflict [Z]. Unpublised Manuscript, 2005.
[99] Levy, J. S. Economic Interdependence, Opportunity Cost, and War [Z]. Unpublised Manuscript, 2001.
[100] Long, A. G. Defense Pacts and International Trade [J]. Journal of Peace Research, 2003, 40(5):537-552.
[101] Long, A. G. Trading for Security: Military Alliances and Economic Agreements [J]. Journal of Peace Research, 2006,43(4):433-451.
[102] Mansfield, E. D. Power, Trade and War [M]. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994.
[103] Mansfield, E. D., Milner, H. V. and Rosendorff, B. Why Democracies Cooperate More: Electoral Control and international Trade Agreements [Z]. The 94th Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, 1998.
[104] Mansfield, E. D. and Pevehouse, J. C. Trade Blocs, Trade Flows, and International Conflict [J]. International Organization, 2000, 54(4):775-808.
[105] Mansfield, E. D. and Pollins, B. M. The Study of Interdependence and Conflict: Recent Advances, Open Questions, and Directions for Future Research [J]. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2001,45(6):834-859.
[106] Mansfield, E. D. and Snyder, J. Democratic Transitions, Institutional Strength, and War [J]. International Organization,2002,56(2):297-337.
[107]Manzetti,L.The Political Economy of MERCOSUR[J].Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs,1993,35(4):101-141.
[108]Markuson,J.R.and James R.M.Factor Movements and Commodity Trade as Complements[J].Journal of International Economics,1983,13(2):341-356.
[109]Markuson,J.R.and Svensson L.E.O.Trade in Goods and Factor with International Differences in Technology[J].International Economic Review,1985,26(1):75-192.
[110]Maoz,Z.and Russett B.Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace[J].American Political Science Review,1993,87(3):624-638.
[111]Maoz,Z.Systemic Polarization,Interdependence,and International Conflict,1816-2002[J].Journal of Peace Research,2006,43(4):391-411.
[112]Marchick,D.M.and Graham,E.M.How China Can Break Down America's Wall[Z].2006.
[113]Margit,B.and Hans,W.Foreign Direct Investment and Militarized Conflict[Z].The 45th annual ISA convention Discussion Paper,2004.
[114]McDonald,P.J.Peace through Trade or Free Trade?[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,2004,48:547-572.
[115]Mearsheimer,J.J.Back to the Future:Instability in Europe after the Cold War[J].International Security,1990,15(1):5-56.
[116]Michael,J.H.International Trade and Political Conflict:Commerce,Coalitions,and Mobility[M].Princeton University Press,2002.
[117]Morrow,J.D.When Do "Relative Gains" Impede Trade?[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,1997,41(1):12-37.
[118]Morrow,J.D.,Siverson,R.M.and Taberes,T.E.The Political Determinants of International Trade:The Major Powers,1907-1990[J].American Political Science Review,1998,92(3):49-61.
[119]Morrow,J.D.How Could Trade Affect Conflict?[J].Journal of Peace Research,Special Issue on Trade and Conflict,1999,36(4):481-489.
[120]Mosher,J.S.Relative Gains Concerns When the Number of States in the International System Increases[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,2003,47(5):642-668.
[121]Mundell,R.A.International Trade and Factor Mobility[J].American Economic Review,1957,47(3):321-335.
[122]Nigh,D.and Schollhammer,H.Foreign Direct Investment,Political Conflict and Co-Operation:The Asymmetric Response Hypothesis[J].Managerial and Decision Economics,1987,8(4):307-312.
[123]Noland,M.Trade,Investment,and Economic Conflict between the United States and Asia [J].Journal of Asian Economics,1996,7(3):435-458.
[124]Nye,J.S.Multinationals:The Game and the Rules:Multinational Corporations in World Politics [J]. Foreign Affairs. 1974, 10.
[125] Nu'man K. Trade-A Catalyst for Peace? [J]. The Economic Journal, 2001, 111(472):276-F290.
[126] Ohmae, K. The Borderless World. Power and Strategy in the Interlinked Economy [M]. New York: Harper Business, 1990.
[127] Oneal, J. R. Measuring Interdependence and Its Pacific Benefits: A Reply to Gartzke and Li [J]. Journal of Peace Research, 2003,40(6):721-725.
[128] Oneal, J. R., Oneal, F. H., Maoz, Z., and Russett, B. The Liberal Peace: Interdependence, Democracy, and International Conflict, 1950-86 [J]. Journal of Peace Research, 1996, 33(1):11-28.
[129] Oneal, J. R. and Ray, J. L. New Tests of the Democratic Peace: Controlling for Economic Interdependence, 1950-85 [J]. Political Research Quarterly, 1997, 50(4):751-775.
[130] Oneal, J. R. and Russett, B. The Classical Liberals were Right: Democracy, and International Conflict, 1950-85 [J]. International Studies Quarterly, 1997,41(2): 267-294.
[131] Oneal, J. R. and Russett, B. Assessing the Liberal Peace with Alternative Specifications: Trade still Reduces Conflict [J]. Journal of Peace Research, 1999, 36(4):423-442.
[132] Paarlberg, R. L. Food, Oil, and Coercive Resource Power [J]. International Security, 1978, 3(2):3-19.
[133] Pahre, R. and Papayoanou, P. A. Using Game Theory to Link Domestic and International Politics [J]. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1997,41(1):4-11.
[134] Peter, D. H. and Michael, D. W. Analyzing Dependencies in International Relations: Commerce, Capitalism, Conflict, Cooperation, and Democracy. [C]. The 46th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, 2005.
[135] Peter, L. Trade and Peace [J]. International Studies Review, 2004, 6:139-141.
[136] Petersen, C. E. Trade Conflict and Resolution Methodologies [J]. American Economic Review, 1992, 82(2):62-66.
[137] Polachek, S. Conflict and Trade. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1980,24(1): 55-78.
[138] Polachek, S. Conflict and Trade: An Economics Approach to Political International Interactions [J]. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 1992, 5(2):89-120.
[139] Polachek, S. and McDonald J. Strategic Trade and the Incentive for Cooperation [Z]. Disarmament, Economic Conversion, and Management of Peace, 1992:273-284.
[140] Polachek, S. Why Democracies Cooperate More and Fight Less: The Relationship Between International Trade and Cooperation [J]. Review of International Economics, 1997, 5(3):295-309.
[141] Polachek, S. Conflict and Trade: An Economics Approach to Political International Interactions [J]. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 1999, 5(2): 1-30.
[142] Polachek, S., Robst, J. and Chang, Y. C. Liberalism and Interdependence: Extending the Trade-Conflict Model [J]. Journal of Peace Research, 1999, 36(4):405-422.
[143] Polachek, S. How Outsourcing Affects Bilateral Political Relations [Z]. IZA Discussion Paper, 2004.
[144] Polachek, S., Seiglie C. and Xiang J. Globalization and International Conflict: Can FDI Increase Peace? [Z]. ISA meetings Discussion Paper, 2005.
[145] Polachek, S., Seiglie C. and Xiang J. Globalization and International Conflict: Can FDI Increase Peace as Trade Does? [Z]. Unpublised Manuscript, 2006.
[146] Polachek, S. and Seiglie C. Trade, Peace and Democracy: An Analysis of Dyadic Dispute [Z]. IZA Discussion Paper, 2006.
[147] Pollins, B. M. Conflict, Cooperation, and Commerce: The Effect of International Political Interactions on Bilateral Trade Flows [J]. American Journal of Political Science, 1989, 33(3):737-761.
[148] Pollins, B. M. Does Trade Still Follow the Flag? [J]. American Political Science Review, 1989, 83(2): 465-480.
[149] Pollins, B. M. Globalization and Armed Conflict among Nations: Prospects through the Lens of International Relations Theory [Z]. Globalization and National Security Conference Discussion Paper, 2007.
[150] Powell, R. Absolute and Relative Gains in International Relations Theory [J]. American Political Science Review, 1991, 85(4):1303-1320.
[151] Powell, R. Guns, Butter, and Anarchy [J]. American Political Science Review, 1993, 87(1): 115-132.
[152] Rasler, K. and Thompson, W. R. War, Trade, and the Mediation of Systemic Leadership [J]. Journal of Peace Research, 2005,42(3):251-269.
[153] Reuveny, R. and Kang, H. International Trade, Political Conflict/Cooperation, and Granger Causality [J]. American Journal of Political Science, 1996,40(3):943-970.
[154] Reuveny, R. and Kang, H. Bilateral Trade and Political Conflict/Cooperation: Do Goods Matter? [J]. Journal of Peace Research, 1998,35(5):581-602.
[155] Reuveny, R. and Maxwell, J. Free Trade and Arms Races [J]. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1998,42(6):771-803.
[156] Reuveny, R. and Kang, H. A Simultaneous-Equations Model of Trade, Conflict, and Cooperation [J]. Review of International Economics, 2003,11(2):279-295.
[157] Reuveny, R. and Li Q. Is All Trade the Same? The Effect of Disaggregated Bilateral Trade on Militarized Disputes [Z]. The Peace Science Society (International) Thirty-Eighth American Meeting, 2004.
[158] Robock, S. Political Risk: Identification and Assessment [J]. Columbia Journal of World Business, 1971,6(4): 6-20.
[159] Robst, J., Polachek, S. and Chang, Y. C. Geographic Proximity, Trade and International Conflict/Cooperation [Z]. IZA Discussion Paper, 2006.
[160] Roemer, J. E. The Effects of Sphere of Influence and Economic Distance on the Commodity Composition of Trade in Manufactures[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1977,59(3):318-327.
[161]Rosecrance,R.The Rise of the Trading State:Commerce and Conquest in the Modern World[M].New York:Basic Books,1986.
[162]Rosecrance,R.The Rise of the Virtual State[M].New York:Basic Books,1999.
[163]Russett,B.M.International Regions and the International System:A Study in Political Ecology[M].Chicago,IL:Rand McNally,1967.
[164]Russett,B.,Oneal J.R.and David R.D.The Third Leg of the Kantian Tripod for Peace:International Organizations and Militarized Disputes,1950-1985[J].International Organization,1998,52(3):441-467.
[165]Sandler,T.Economic Analysis of Conflict[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,2000,44:723-729.
[166]Sandoval,B.R.Interdependence and Militarized Conflict:Does Trade Inform States?[J].Annual meeting of the International Studies Association Discussion Paper,2006.
[167]Schelling,T.International Economics[M].Boston,MA:Allyn & Bacon,1958.
[168]Scheiling,T.Micromotives and Macrobehavior[M].New York:Norton,1978.
[169]Schneider,F.and Frey B.S.Economic and Political Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment[J].World Development,1985,13(2):161-175.
[170]Schneider G.and G(u|¨)nther G.S.Trade and Armed Conflict:The Domestic Foundations of Commercial Liberalism[Z].Unpublished Manuscript,2005.
[171]Schneider,G.and Troeger,V.E.War and the World Economy:Stock Market Reactions to International Conflicts[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,2006,50(5):623-645.
[172]Selfridge,H.G.The Romance of Commerce[M].London:Bodley Head,1918.
[173]Sen,A.Isolation,Assurance and the Social Rate of Discount[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1967,81(1):112-124.
[174]Shaheen,B.A.Dyadic Risk and Foreign Direct Investment[Z].Wharton Research Scholars Honors Thesis.University of Pennsylvania,2005.
[175]Simmons,B.A.Rules over Real Estate:Trade,Territorial Conflict,and International Borders as Institution[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,2005,49(6):823.
[176]Simon,J.D.Political Risk Assessment:Past Trends and Future Prospects[J].Columbia Journal of World Business,1982,17(5):62-71.
[177]Skaperdas,S.Cooperation,Conflict,and Power in the Absence of Property Rights[J].American Economic Review,1992,82(4):720-739.
[178]Skaperdas,S.and Syropoulos C.Competitive Trade with Conflict[Z].in Michelle R.G.& Skaperdas S.,eds,The Political Economy of Conflict and Appropriation.New York:Cambridge University Press,1996.
[179]Smith,P.H.The Politics of Integration:Concept and Themes[Z].The Challenge of Integration:Europe and the Americas,New Brunswick,NJ:Transaction Publishers,1993.
[180]Snidal,D.Power versus Plenty:How Much Do Relative Gains Considerations Impede International Cooperation?[Z].International Studies Association Meetings Discussion Paper,1989.
[181]Snidal,D.International Cooperation among Relative Gains Maximizers[J].International Studies Quarterly,1991,35(4):387-402.
[182]Snidal,D.Relative Gains and the Pattern of International Cooperation[J].American Political Science Review,1991,85(3):701-726.
[183]Snitwongse,K.Thirty Years of ASEAN:Achievements through Political Cooperation[J].Pacific Review,1998,11(2):83-94.
[184]Souva,M.A.Essays on Interdependence,Institutions,and International Conflict[D].PhD Dissertaion:Michigan State University,2002.
[185]Souva,M.and Prins,B.The Liberal Peace Revisited:The Role of Democracy,Dependence,and Development in Militarized Interstate Dispute Initiation,1950-1999[J].International Interactions,2006,32(2):183-200.
[186]Spero,E.J.and Hart J.A.The Politics of International Political Economic Relations [M].Canada:Thomson Wadsworth,2003.
[187]Stein,A.A.Trade and Conflict:Uncertainty,Strategic Signaling,and Interstate Disputes [Z].Conference on Trade and Conflict Discussion Paper,2001.
[188]S(u|¨)heyla(O|¨).and Nur B.C.Survival of Rationalism between Hostility and Economic Growth[J].Journal of Peace Research,2001,38(4):515-535.
[189]Taylor,M.Anarchy and Cooperation[M].New York:Wiley.Revised version published as The Possibility of Cooperation.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1987.
[190]Tinbergen,J.Shaping the World Economy:Suggestions for an International Economic Policy[M].New York:Twentieth Century Fund,1962.
[191]UNCTAD.World Investment Report[R].1996,152-153.
[192]Valentin L.K.Interdependence and the Duration of Militarized Conflict[J].Journal of Peace Research,2006,43(3):243-260.
[193]Vernon,R.Sovereignty at Bay:The Multinational Spread of U.S.Enterprises[M].New York:Basic Books,1971.
[194]Viner,J.Studies in the Theory of International Trade[M].New York:Harper and Brothers,1937.
[195]Vogel,Steven.The Power behind "Spin-Ons":The Military Implications of Japan's Commercial Technology[Z].The Highest Stakes:The Economic Foundations of the Next Security System,New York:Oxford University Press,1992.
[196]Wallensteen,P.Structure and War:On International Relations 1920-1968[M].Stockholm:Raben & Sj(o|¨)gren,1973.
[197]Waltz,Kenneth.Theory of International Polities[M].New York:Random House.1979.
[198]Wells,L.T.Good and Fair Competition:Does the Foreign Direct Investor Face Still Other Risks in Emerging Markets[Z].in Theodor H.Moran,ed.,Managing International Political Risk.Alden:Blackwell Business,1998.
[199]Yeats,A.On the Accuracy of Economic Observations:Do Sub-Saharan Trade Statistics Mean Anything?[J].World Bank Economic Review,1990,4(2):135-156.
[200]曹云华.中国—东盟经济合作中的绝对获益与相对获益[J].亚太经济,2004,(3):54-56.
[201]畅征,王杏芳等.国际政治学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1995.
[202]常欣欣.后冷战时期的和平[D].中共中央党校,2001.
[203]陈安国.论经济全球化中的跨国公司及其对民族国家的挑战[J].南京师大学报(社会科学版),2000,(5):36-41.
[204]陈同仇,薜荣久.国际贸易[M].北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社,1991.
[205]陈有为.中美经济相互依赖[J].华人世界,2007,(3):24-25.
[206]陈振明.政治的经济学分析:新政治经济学导论[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2003.
[207]大卫·A·鲍德温著,肖欢容译.新现实主义与新自由主义[M].浙江人民出版社,2001.
[208]邓小平文选(第3卷)[M].北京:人民出版社,1993.
[209]范曦新.世纪和平发展背景下的中国战略选择[J].时代教育,2006,(12):174-175.
[210]樊勇明.西方国际政治经济学[M].上海人民出版社,2002.
[211]傅梦孜.中美关系中的经济政治学[J].世界知识,2005,(2):66.
[212]傅梦孜.中美经贸关系可能演绎的政治内涵[J].国际经济评论,2007,(4):13-14.
[213]高铁梅,孔宪丽,刘玉,胡玲.中国钢铁工业供给与需求影响因素的动态分析[J].管理世界,2004,(6):73-81.
[214]龚晓莺.国际贸易与国际直接投资的关系及政策选择[D].复旦大学,2003.
[215]国分良成著,崔存明摘译.冷战后中日关系转变的特点[J].国外理论动态,2007,(5):43-46.
[216]亨廷顿.文明的冲突与世界秩序的重建[M].北京:新华出版社,1998.
[217]赫尔曼康恩.论逐步升级——比喻和假想情景[M].北京:世界知识出版社,1965.
[218]霍夫曼编.当代国际关系理论[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1990.
[219]胡欣.世界体系中的中国与美国:冲突和合作[J].世界经济与政治论坛,2002,(4):70-73.
[220]金应忠,倪世雄.国际关系理论比较研究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1992.
[221]肯尼思·沃尔兹.国际政治理论[M].北京:中国人民公安大学出版社,1992.
[222]孔泉.例行记者会上答记者问[EB/01].http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/xwfw/fyrth/tl 197024.htm,2005-05-24.
[223]杰弗里·加勒特,彼得·兰格.国际化、制度和政治变迁[A].罗伯特·基欧汉,海伦·米尔纳著,姜鹏等译.国际化与国内政治[C].北京:北京大学出版社,2003.
[224]邝艳湘.经济相互依赖与国际和平[J].外交评论,2007,(2):65-72.
[225]邝艳湘.和平还是冲突:经济相互依赖的政治后果[J].国际论坛,2007,9(3):44-80.
[226]郎平.贸易是推动和平的力量吗?[J].世界经济与政治,2005,(10):45-52.
[227]李非.当前海峡两岸贸易形势分析[J].厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2007,(1):76-83.
[228]李非,熊俊莉.两岸高科技产业的发展与合作[J].亚太经济,2007,(1):67-71.
[229]李会民.冲突分析与合作理论研究[D].天津大学,2003.
[230]李荣林.国际贸易与直接投资的关系:文献综述[J].世界经济,2002,(4):44-46.
[231]李少军.“冲突——合作模型”与中美关系的量化分析[J].世界经济与政治,2002,(4):43-49.
[232]李少军.国际政治学概论[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2002.
[233]李玉珍,孔慧珍.中日经贸关系探析[J].社会科学论坛,2007,(5):126-128.
[234]李文溥.国际直接投资与国家经济利益及国家安全[J].学术月刊,1997,(10):21-25.
[235]联合国贸发会议.1995年世界投资报告(中译本)[M].北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社,1996.
[236]联合国贸发会议.1998年世界投资报告(中译本)[M].北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社,1999.
[237]刘彩.合作博弈:国际冲突决策模式的理性选择[D].华中师范大学,2005.
[238]柳剑平.国际经济关系政治化问题研究[M].北京:人民出版社,2002.
[239]罗伯特·基欧汉,约瑟夫·奈.权力与相互依赖[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2001.
[240]罗伯特·吉尔平.国际关系政治经济学[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1989.
[241]罗伯特·吉尔平.国际关系政治经济学[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1992.
[242]罗伯特·吉尔平.世界政治中的战争与变革[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1994.
[243]梅然.经济相互依赖与和平[J].欧洲,1998,(5):20-27.
[244]倪世雄.当代西方国际关系理论[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2001.
[245]尼尔·胡德,斯蒂芬·杨.跨国企业经济学[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1990.
[246]彭维学.十年来两岸关系的震荡与发展[J].统一论坛,2007,(1):8-11.
[247]秋田浩之.是加深相互依赖避免矛盾还是加强日美印同盟面对威胁——美国的对华观依然摇摆不定[N].日本经济新闻,2006-02-15.
[248]冉光和,李敬,熊德平,温涛.中国金融发展与经济增长关系的区域差异研究——基于面板数据的单位根检验、协整检验与误差纠正模型[Z].经济发展论坛工作论文,2005.
[249]上海证大研究所.文明的和解:中国和平崛起以后的世界[M].北京:人民出版社,2005.
[250]尚涛,郭根龙,冯宗宪.我国服务贸易自由化与经济增长的关系研究——基于脉冲响应函数方法的分析[J].国际贸易问题,2007,(8):92-98.
[251]时殷弘.中美关系与中国战略[J].现代国际关系,2007,(1):35-36.
[252]宋国友.贸易增长、利益集团与国家间冲突[J].现代国际关系,2004,(6):18-23.
[253]宋国友.国家冲突阴影下的贸易增长:一种社会—国家的分析[D].复旦大学,2006.
[254]苏长和.经济相互依赖及其政治后果[J].欧洲,1998,(4):34-39.
[255]苏珊·斯特兰奇.国际政治经济学导论:国家与市场[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1990.
[256]孙秀萍.日本议员看历史心态复杂(N].环球时报,2006-06-26.
[257]孙兆慧.海峡两岸经贸发展状况与趋势[J].国际经济合作,2007,(4):33-36.
[258]唐永胜,卢刚.中美关系的结构性矛盾及其化解[J].现代国际关系,2007,(6):52-60.
[259]滕藤,谷源洋.1997~1998世界经济形势分析与预测[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1998.
[260]王舒.贸易投资的一体化理论与国家产业竞争政策的演进[J].江苏社会科学,2002,(2):66-71.
[261]王逸舟.当代国际政治析论[M].上海:上海人民出版社,1995.
[262]王逸舟.全球化时代的国际安全[M].上海:上海译文出版社,1999.
[263]汪垚.20世纪90年代以来双边投资协定评介及发展趋势研究[D].对外经济贸易大学,2006.
[264]威廉·内斯特著,姚远,汪恒译.国际关系——21世纪的政治与经济[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2005.
[265]伍德里奇.横截面与面板数据的经济计量分析[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007.
[266]吴先明.国际贸易理论与国际直接投资理论的融合发展趋势[J].国际贸易问题,1999,(7):1-6.
[267]吴心伯.中美经贸关系的新格局及其对双边关系的影响[J].复旦学报(社会科学版),2007,(1):1-10.
[268]徐崇利.从南北纷争焦点的转移看国际投资法的晚近发展[J].比较法研究,1997,(1):44-54.
[269]徐坚.纵论国际形势与中国外交[J].国际问题研究,2007,(2):15-32.
[270]徐良.冲突与合作——后冷战时期中美关系析论[D].江西师范大学,2002.
[271]徐乃炯.帝国主义对第三世界国家的控制和剥削(统计资料)[M].北京:人民出版社,1978.
[272]薛荣久.不对等的两岸货物贸易[J].国际经贸探索,2007,(4):41-45.
[273]亚历山大·温特.国际政治的社会理论[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2001.
[274]杨耕.冷战后国际冲突的主权因素分析[D].吉林大学,2004.
[275]游红武.后冷战时代国际冲突探源[D].暨南大学,2000.
[276]俞进.论国际贸易和国际直接投资的理论融合[D].华东师范大学,2003.
[277]余先予.国际经济法教程[MI.北京:中国财政经济出版社,2000.
[278]袁鹏.中美关系新特点[J].国际问题研究,2007,(2):10-11.
[279]詹姆斯·多尔蒂,小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著,阎学通等译.争论中的国际关系理论[M].北京:世界知识出版社,2003.
[280]詹晓宁,葛顺奇.多边投资框架与中国战略利益[J].国际经济评论,2002,(4):19-23.
[281]张季良.国际关系概论[M].北京:世界知识出版社,1989.
[282]张建清,熊灵.中美经贸关系的政治经济分析[J].国外社会科学,2007,(6):30-35.
[283]张丽娟.试论贸易与政治的相互渗透及实现途径[J].太平洋学报,2005,(9):57-63.
[284]张如庆.中国对外直接投资和对外贸易的关系[J].世界经济研究,2005,(3):23-27.
[285]赵彬.国际直接投资的发展与我国引进外资战略的调整[D].厦门大学,2001.
[286]朱园丽,姜加强.基于VAR模型的方差分解和脉冲响应函数在损失率波动分析中的应用[J].金融经济,2007,(1):59-63.
[287]庄宗明,孔瑞等.中美经济相关性研究[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2007.
[288]兹比格纽·布热津斯基.大棋局——美国的首要地位及其地缘战略[M].上海:上海人民出版社,1998.
[289]邹志强.试论冷战后的中国经济外交[D].武汉大学,2005.