国际贸易与中国产业结构调整
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摘要
在开放经济条件下，如何加快转变经济发展方式，推动产业结构优化升级是我国当前面临的最紧迫的任务之一。作为世界上头号贸易大国，国际贸易的发展无疑对我国产业结构调整具有重要影响。因此，研究国际贸易和产业结构调整之间的关系具有重要意义。
从现有相关研究文献来看，主要存在两个方面的不足：一是对国际贸易作用于产业结构调整的传导机制缺乏深入的探讨；二是鲜有学者同时从产值结构和就业结构的视角同时对这一问题进行研究。基于此，本文从中国当前产业结构调整的实际情况出发，深入分析国际贸易对产业结构调整的作用机制，从产值结构和就业结构调整的视角，探讨了国际贸易对中国产业结构调整的影响。
在理论分析、历史比较分析、国际比较分析的基础之上，本文运用1987-2008年的省际面板数据对国际贸易与我国产业结构调整之间的关系进行了实证分析。通过研究，本文主要得出了以下结论：（1）在开放经济条件下，一国的产业结构调整不仅受国内需求的影响，也受到国际贸易的影响。贸易战略和政策的不同导致各国的产业结构调整和工业化所处阶段也不同，也是各国影响结构转化诸因素的相对重要性有所区别的主要原因，即由于贸易战略和政策上的差异，产业结构调整速度和状态也不同。（2）从国际贸易对产值结构的影响来看，国际贸易主要是通过影响各产业经济增长率来影响产值结构转换，国际贸易使得农业增长下降，工业和服务业增长上升。实证结果显示国际贸易对工业增长有倒U型的影响：随着开放程度的加深，工业经济增长率在经历一段时间上升之后会呈下降趋势。国际贸易对不同产业增长率的差异最终会导致产值结构发生转换，即第一产业在国民生产总值中所占份额减少，而第二产业和第三产业在国民生产总值中所占份额增加。值得注意的是，这一实证研究结果在对东部地区影响不明显，而在中部地区和西部地区都非常显著，这可能主要是因为不同地区国际贸易的“技术外溢效应”不同造成的。（3）从国际贸易对就业结构的影响来看，受恩格尔定律和部门偏向的技术进步的影响，国际贸易导致了农业就业比重下降、工业就业比重呈倒U型变动、服务业就业比重上升。在开放经济下，工业就业比重的倒U型变动预示着随着开放程度的加深，刚开始会使得工业就业比重有一个较大幅度的上升，越过最高点后，国际贸易对工业就业比重的拉升作用会呈下降趋势，即未来中国工业吸纳劳动力的能力将在某一时刻呈下降趋势。国际贸易导致服务业就业比重得到逐渐提升，尽管各地区提升幅度有所不同，但总体来看，国际贸易对服务业就业比重有促进作用，这说明提高国际贸易的开放程度有利于扩大服务业的就业规模。（4）除了国际贸易以外，投资率、政府支出、人力资本丰裕度、城镇化等因素均对各产业经济增长产生影响。基于以上研究结论，借鉴发达国家国际经验，并结合我国的实际情况，本文分别从国际贸易政策、产业政策、劳动力政策和城镇化四个方面提出了相关对策建议。
与现有研究成果相比，本文可能的创新之处体现在以下五个方面：（1）以往的研究大多关注国际贸易对一国经济增长的影响，而本文深入到产业结构内部，从产值结构和就业结构的角度，探讨了国际贸易对产业结构调整的影响。（2）本文从我国的实际情况为出发点，结合相关理论系统阐述国际贸易影响产值结构的机理和传导机制和影响就业调整的Mastuyama模型，对国际贸易影响产业增长和产业结构调整进行了系统的理论分析，为实证检验提供坚实的理论基础。（3）本文对国际贸易与产业结构调整的研究框架进行梳理，明确了本文在产业结构调整研究体系中的地位、已取得的成果、研究热点及争议点，并将国际贸易、产业结构统一在同一框架之下研究他们之间的相互作用与关系，结合中国实情，试图回答在中国经济发展每个阶段国际贸易与产业结构所运用的重点所在。（4）为克服单纯利用时序资料分析国际贸易和产业结构调整的缺陷，本文充分利用面板资料，在包群（2008）和Mastsuyama（2009）的理论框架的基础上建立了更符合中国实情的计量模型，对国际贸易影响我国产业结构调整的作用进行分析，并结合各产业特点和区域特点对这一问题进行深入的探讨。（5）本文验证了Mastsuyama（2009）的理论框架在中国的适用性。
In an open economy, how to accelerate the transformation of economicdevelopment, promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is one ofthe most urgent tasks facing our country. As the world’s number one trading nation,the development of international trade will undoubtedly have a significant impact onChina’s industrial restructuring. Therefore, the study of the relationship betweeninternational trade and industrial structure adjustment has important significance.
From the existing research literature, there are two major shortcomings: the firstis the lack of in-depth discussion on the role of international trade in industrialstructure adjustment of the transmission mechanism; Second, few scholars from boththe perspective of the industrial structure and employment structure at the same timeconduct research on this issue. Based on this, from the actual situation of China’scurrent industrial structure adjustment departure, this paper analyzes the mechanismsof international trade on industrial restructuring, then, from the industrial structureand employment structure adjustment of perspectives, this paper explores the impactof international trade on China’s industrial structure adjustment.
In the above theoretical analysis, history, on the basis of comparative analysisand comparative analysis, this paper uses the1987-2008provincial panel data tointernational trade and the relationship between the adjustment of industrial structurein our country has carried on the empirical analysis. Through the research, this paperdraws the following conclusion:(1) Results in an open economy, a country’sindustrial structure adjustment is not only affected by domestic demand, is alsoaffected by international trade. Different trading strategies and policies lead toindustrial restructuring and the stage industrialized countries are different, but alsoaffect the structural transformation of the relative importance of the various countriesof various factors distinguish the main reason for that is due to differences instrategies and policies on trade, industrial structure adjust the speed and the state isdifferent.(2) From the point of international trade’s influence on the output valuestructure, international trade to influence economic growth mainly through affectingthe industry output value structure transformation, international trade has made theagricultural decline, industry and service industry grow. The empirical results showthat the international trade of industrial growth is the influence of the inverted U type: as the degree of opening, the industrial economic growth after a period of time up willbe a downward trend. International trade will ultimately lead to difference of differentindustry growth rate of output structure transformation: the first industry in GDPshare will be decreasing, while the second industry and tertiary industry share will beincreasing in the gross national product (GNP). It is important to note that theempirical study results in the eastern region has not significant, but in the centralregion and western region is very significant.(3) From the point of the impact ofinternational trade on employment structure, the Engel’s Law and the department tothe influence of the technological progress, leading to a fall in agriculturalemployment proportion of international trade, industry, employment proportion risingby inverted U type change and the service sector employment proportion rising.Industrial employment proportion in the open, under the influence of changes in theinverted u-shaped signal with the open degree of deepening, beginning will make theindustry has a considerably increase the proportion of employment, across the peak,the international trade of industrial employment proportion will pull up effect is onthe decline, that is the future China’s ministry of industry’s ability to absorb labor willat some point is on the decline. Employment is gradually increase the proportion ofinternational trade in services, even though rise among regions is different, but overall,the international trade of service sector employment proportion has a promoting effect,suggesting that improving the openness of the international trade is beneficial toenlarge the scale of service industry employment.(4) In addition to international trade,investment, government spending and human capital abundance, urbanization andother factors are all to influence the industry economic growth.Finally, based on theabove research conclusion, drawing lessons from international experience in thedeveloped countries, and combined with the actual situation of our country, this paperhas put forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions from four aspects includingthe international trade policy, industrial policy, labor policy and urbanization.
Compared with the existing research results, this paper may be the innovation ofthe embodied in the following five aspects:First, previous studies mostly focus on theinfluence of international trade on a country’s economic growth, but this article goesdeep into the internal industrial structure from the perspective of production valuestructure and employment structure, in order to investigate the influence ofinternational trade on the industrial structure adjustment.Second, this paper takes theactual situation of our country as the starting point, combining with related theory system, the influence mechanism of production structure and international trade to themechanism and influencing employment adjustment Mastuyama model in this paper,analyzing the impact on the international trade industry growth and industrialstructure adjustment for the theoretical analysis of the system, providing a strongtheoretical basis for empirical.hird, in this paper does up the research framework ofinternational trade and industrial structure adjustment, clearing the status of theresearch system based on the industrial structure adjustment, has been achieved,research hotspots and controversial points, and international trade, industrial structureand unified under the same framework to study interactions and relationships betweenthem, combined with China’s the truth, trying to answer in each stage of internationaltrade and economic growth of China as applied to the industrial structure of thepoint.Fourth, to overcome the simple use of time-series data analysis the defect ofinternational trade and industrial structure adjustment, this paper makes full use ofpanel data. On the basis of the research of BaoQun (2008) and Mastsuyama (2009),this paper established the theoretical framework of the truth of econometric modelmore accord with China, impacting on the international trade of our country’sindustrial structure adjustment effect is analyzed, and combining with thecharacteristics of each industry and regional features an in-depth discussion on thisissue.Fifth, this paper verified the Mastsuyama (2009) of the applicability of thetheoretical framework in China.
从现有相关研究文献来看，主要存在两个方面的不足：一是对国际贸易作用于产业结构调整的传导机制缺乏深入的探讨；二是鲜有学者同时从产值结构和就业结构的视角同时对这一问题进行研究。基于此，本文从中国当前产业结构调整的实际情况出发，深入分析国际贸易对产业结构调整的作用机制，从产值结构和就业结构调整的视角，探讨了国际贸易对中国产业结构调整的影响。
在理论分析、历史比较分析、国际比较分析的基础之上，本文运用1987-2008年的省际面板数据对国际贸易与我国产业结构调整之间的关系进行了实证分析。通过研究，本文主要得出了以下结论：（1）在开放经济条件下，一国的产业结构调整不仅受国内需求的影响，也受到国际贸易的影响。贸易战略和政策的不同导致各国的产业结构调整和工业化所处阶段也不同，也是各国影响结构转化诸因素的相对重要性有所区别的主要原因，即由于贸易战略和政策上的差异，产业结构调整速度和状态也不同。（2）从国际贸易对产值结构的影响来看，国际贸易主要是通过影响各产业经济增长率来影响产值结构转换，国际贸易使得农业增长下降，工业和服务业增长上升。实证结果显示国际贸易对工业增长有倒U型的影响：随着开放程度的加深，工业经济增长率在经历一段时间上升之后会呈下降趋势。国际贸易对不同产业增长率的差异最终会导致产值结构发生转换，即第一产业在国民生产总值中所占份额减少，而第二产业和第三产业在国民生产总值中所占份额增加。值得注意的是，这一实证研究结果在对东部地区影响不明显，而在中部地区和西部地区都非常显著，这可能主要是因为不同地区国际贸易的“技术外溢效应”不同造成的。（3）从国际贸易对就业结构的影响来看，受恩格尔定律和部门偏向的技术进步的影响，国际贸易导致了农业就业比重下降、工业就业比重呈倒U型变动、服务业就业比重上升。在开放经济下，工业就业比重的倒U型变动预示着随着开放程度的加深，刚开始会使得工业就业比重有一个较大幅度的上升，越过最高点后，国际贸易对工业就业比重的拉升作用会呈下降趋势，即未来中国工业吸纳劳动力的能力将在某一时刻呈下降趋势。国际贸易导致服务业就业比重得到逐渐提升，尽管各地区提升幅度有所不同，但总体来看，国际贸易对服务业就业比重有促进作用，这说明提高国际贸易的开放程度有利于扩大服务业的就业规模。（4）除了国际贸易以外，投资率、政府支出、人力资本丰裕度、城镇化等因素均对各产业经济增长产生影响。基于以上研究结论，借鉴发达国家国际经验，并结合我国的实际情况，本文分别从国际贸易政策、产业政策、劳动力政策和城镇化四个方面提出了相关对策建议。
与现有研究成果相比，本文可能的创新之处体现在以下五个方面：（1）以往的研究大多关注国际贸易对一国经济增长的影响，而本文深入到产业结构内部，从产值结构和就业结构的角度，探讨了国际贸易对产业结构调整的影响。（2）本文从我国的实际情况为出发点，结合相关理论系统阐述国际贸易影响产值结构的机理和传导机制和影响就业调整的Mastuyama模型，对国际贸易影响产业增长和产业结构调整进行了系统的理论分析，为实证检验提供坚实的理论基础。（3）本文对国际贸易与产业结构调整的研究框架进行梳理，明确了本文在产业结构调整研究体系中的地位、已取得的成果、研究热点及争议点，并将国际贸易、产业结构统一在同一框架之下研究他们之间的相互作用与关系，结合中国实情，试图回答在中国经济发展每个阶段国际贸易与产业结构所运用的重点所在。（4）为克服单纯利用时序资料分析国际贸易和产业结构调整的缺陷，本文充分利用面板资料，在包群（2008）和Mastsuyama（2009）的理论框架的基础上建立了更符合中国实情的计量模型，对国际贸易影响我国产业结构调整的作用进行分析，并结合各产业特点和区域特点对这一问题进行深入的探讨。（5）本文验证了Mastsuyama（2009）的理论框架在中国的适用性。
In an open economy, how to accelerate the transformation of economicdevelopment, promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is one ofthe most urgent tasks facing our country. As the world’s number one trading nation,the development of international trade will undoubtedly have a significant impact onChina’s industrial restructuring. Therefore, the study of the relationship betweeninternational trade and industrial structure adjustment has important significance.
From the existing research literature, there are two major shortcomings: the firstis the lack of in-depth discussion on the role of international trade in industrialstructure adjustment of the transmission mechanism; Second, few scholars from boththe perspective of the industrial structure and employment structure at the same timeconduct research on this issue. Based on this, from the actual situation of China’scurrent industrial structure adjustment departure, this paper analyzes the mechanismsof international trade on industrial restructuring, then, from the industrial structureand employment structure adjustment of perspectives, this paper explores the impactof international trade on China’s industrial structure adjustment.
In the above theoretical analysis, history, on the basis of comparative analysisand comparative analysis, this paper uses the1987-2008provincial panel data tointernational trade and the relationship between the adjustment of industrial structurein our country has carried on the empirical analysis. Through the research, this paperdraws the following conclusion:(1) Results in an open economy, a country’sindustrial structure adjustment is not only affected by domestic demand, is alsoaffected by international trade. Different trading strategies and policies lead toindustrial restructuring and the stage industrialized countries are different, but alsoaffect the structural transformation of the relative importance of the various countriesof various factors distinguish the main reason for that is due to differences instrategies and policies on trade, industrial structure adjust the speed and the state isdifferent.(2) From the point of international trade’s influence on the output valuestructure, international trade to influence economic growth mainly through affectingthe industry output value structure transformation, international trade has made theagricultural decline, industry and service industry grow. The empirical results showthat the international trade of industrial growth is the influence of the inverted U type: as the degree of opening, the industrial economic growth after a period of time up willbe a downward trend. International trade will ultimately lead to difference of differentindustry growth rate of output structure transformation: the first industry in GDPshare will be decreasing, while the second industry and tertiary industry share will beincreasing in the gross national product (GNP). It is important to note that theempirical study results in the eastern region has not significant, but in the centralregion and western region is very significant.(3) From the point of the impact ofinternational trade on employment structure, the Engel’s Law and the department tothe influence of the technological progress, leading to a fall in agriculturalemployment proportion of international trade, industry, employment proportion risingby inverted U type change and the service sector employment proportion rising.Industrial employment proportion in the open, under the influence of changes in theinverted u-shaped signal with the open degree of deepening, beginning will make theindustry has a considerably increase the proportion of employment, across the peak,the international trade of industrial employment proportion will pull up effect is onthe decline, that is the future China’s ministry of industry’s ability to absorb labor willat some point is on the decline. Employment is gradually increase the proportion ofinternational trade in services, even though rise among regions is different, but overall,the international trade of service sector employment proportion has a promoting effect,suggesting that improving the openness of the international trade is beneficial toenlarge the scale of service industry employment.(4) In addition to international trade,investment, government spending and human capital abundance, urbanization andother factors are all to influence the industry economic growth.Finally, based on theabove research conclusion, drawing lessons from international experience in thedeveloped countries, and combined with the actual situation of our country, this paperhas put forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions from four aspects includingthe international trade policy, industrial policy, labor policy and urbanization.
Compared with the existing research results, this paper may be the innovation ofthe embodied in the following five aspects:First, previous studies mostly focus on theinfluence of international trade on a country’s economic growth, but this article goesdeep into the internal industrial structure from the perspective of production valuestructure and employment structure, in order to investigate the influence ofinternational trade on the industrial structure adjustment.Second, this paper takes theactual situation of our country as the starting point, combining with related theory system, the influence mechanism of production structure and international trade to themechanism and influencing employment adjustment Mastuyama model in this paper,analyzing the impact on the international trade industry growth and industrialstructure adjustment for the theoretical analysis of the system, providing a strongtheoretical basis for empirical.hird, in this paper does up the research framework ofinternational trade and industrial structure adjustment, clearing the status of theresearch system based on the industrial structure adjustment, has been achieved,research hotspots and controversial points, and international trade, industrial structureand unified under the same framework to study interactions and relationships betweenthem, combined with China’s the truth, trying to answer in each stage of internationaltrade and economic growth of China as applied to the industrial structure of thepoint.Fourth, to overcome the simple use of time-series data analysis the defect ofinternational trade and industrial structure adjustment, this paper makes full use ofpanel data. On the basis of the research of BaoQun (2008) and Mastsuyama (2009),this paper established the theoretical framework of the truth of econometric modelmore accord with China, impacting on the international trade of our country’sindustrial structure adjustment effect is analyzed, and combining with thecharacteristics of each industry and regional features an in-depth discussion on thisissue.Fifth, this paper verified the Mastsuyama (2009) of the applicability of thetheoretical framework in China.
引文
①摘自胡锦涛《坚定不移沿着中国特色社会主义道路前进为建成小康社会而奋斗——在中国共产党第十八次全国代表大会上的报告》，人民出版社，2012。
②经济学家麦迪森也持类似的观点，具体参见麦迪森的著作——《中国经济的长期表现》。
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②经济学家麦迪森也持类似的观点，具体参见麦迪森的著作——《中国经济的长期表现》。
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