杭州千岛湖镇土地利用变化及其生态效应研究
|
摘要
土地利用/覆盖变化是全球气候变化的主要原因和响应,也是与可持续发展密切相关的课题。土地利用/覆盖变化模拟是预测未来土地利用/覆盖变化的重要方法。选择小尺度空间范围的典型区域作为研究对象,是深入认识和分析土地利用时空变化规律及其驱动机制的有效途径,可以使中国的土地利用/覆盖变化研究向更深、更广的方向发展。建立在明确空间定位基础上综合集成的动态模型,是理解和认识区域土地利用/土地覆盖变化的某些关键过程的重要手段,是对未来的土地利用变化格局和影响进行研究评价的重要工具。在众多土地利用变化模型中,CLUE-S模型比较适用于小尺度空间范围的区域土地利用变化研究。
目前,国内对区域土地利用变化的研究多是以县级尺度为最小单位,而对乡镇一级的土地利用变化研究则很少涉及。本研究选择地处长江三角洲腹地、经济发展很快的杭州市千岛湖镇为研究对象,以1993和2004年的土地利用现状数据和统计数据为数据源,运用GIS技术、数理统计分析等方法,研究了该地区土地利用变化的过程、驱动机制。运用CLUE-S模型模拟、预测了2004年和2015年不同情景下的土地利用变化,并运用景观格局分析方法对千岛湖镇过去11年间的土地利用变化的生态效应进行了分析。可为编制乡镇一级土地利用规划和生态环境建设提供有效决策支持,具有一定的理论和现实意义。研究表明:
(1)在1993～2004年的11年间,千岛湖镇土地利用发生了较大的变化。从数量上来看,变化幅度大小依次是城镇及工矿用地＞林地＞未利用土地＞园地＞耕地＞交通运输用地＞其他未利用地＞其他农用地＞水利设施用地＞牧草地;从土地利用综合指数来看,该区域的开发程度还处于一个合理开发阶段,但以每年4.533%的速率发展,其发展速度还是较快的;从土地利用变化构成指数来看,研究区牧草地、城镇及工矿用地、交通运输用地和其它农用地处于稳定增加的状态,未利用土地、耕地和林地处于稳定减少状态。
(2)研究区土地利用变化既受自然因素的影响,又受社会经济和政策因素的影响,在所选择的驱动因子中,距国道的距离是最重要的自然驱动因子,人口密度是最重要的社会经济因子。
(3)通过对驱动因子Logistic分析,选择对研究区土地利用变化贡献较大的影响因子导入CLUE-S模型进行模拟,用2004年的土地利用现状图对模拟结果进行检验。结果显示在基本单元(90m*90m)的水平上的模拟的正确率为84.71%,Kappa指数值为0.825,这证明CLUE-S模型可以较为成功地模拟研究区域土地利用时空动态变化。基于此,设计两个情景对2015年的土地利用变化进行模拟,与2004年相比较,明显的变化是城镇工矿用地的扩张和林地的减少,并且城镇工矿用地的扩张多是在原有城镇及工矿用地的基础上向四周扩展,侵占的多是周边的耕地、林地、未利用地。情景一比情景二有更多的栅格单元发生了转化,特别是属性为耕地和林地的栅格较多转化成城镇工矿用地。
(4)在类型尺度水平上,林地是最主要的景观类型,是千岛湖镇景观的基质,1993年占78.31%,2004年占75.23%,城镇工矿用地比例由1993年的3.22%增加到2004年的7.4%,斑块个数总体上呈增加的趋势。在景观尺度水平上,千岛湖镇在合理的生态功能规划下,各种景观类型分布趋于聚集,形成一定的规模;单类景观占据主导的趋势在减弱将导致生态系统的稳固,同时也应看到,随着林地的不断减少,城镇化水平的不断提高,生态环境将会受到一定的影响。具体表现在:生境质量下降;景观内部均质化发展,降低了景观抗干扰能力;边缘效应降低;生态系统组分单一化。
LUCC (Land Use and Land Cover Change) is the main reason and response of the globe climate change, and also has a close relation with the sustainable development. LUCC model is the important method to predict future land use change. Selecting typical region of small scale spatial range as a study object is an effective path to deeply recognize and analyze the spatial change and driving mechanism about land use. It can make the research about LUCC develop more deeply and widely in china. The synthesized-integrated dynamic model which built on the clear space orientation foundation is the essential means to understand and know the region land use/land cover change, and is the crucial tool to study and appraise the land use change's pattern and influence in the future. It shows that the CLUE-S Model is suitable which to research the land use change of small scale and spatial region contrast with the other models.
Nowadays, the domestic researches on the region land use change always focus on the county scale, however the villages and towns scale are little involved. Employing the technology of GIS and the method of statistic analysis, the thesis studies the process and driving factors of land use change which utilizes statistic data from 1993 to 2004 of Qiandao Lake in Hangzhou city which lies in the center of the Yangtze River Delta. Based on CLUE-S model, the paper simulates and forecasts land use change in 2004 and in 2015 in the different conditions, and analyses the ecological effects during past 11 years by using the theory of landscape ecology. The study can provide effective support for land use plan and ecological environment construction in the village and town scale, therefore the paper has certain theoretical and realistic meaning.
The main conclusions are the followings:
(1) Over the past 11 years from 1993 to 2004, dramatic change has taken place on land use in Qiandao Lake town. In quantitative terms, the absolute change extent obeyed the following sequence: land for urban areas and mining(533.49ha)>forest land (-415.025ha) >idle land (-189.057ha) >garden land(137.941ha)>cultivated land (-131.545ha) > land for traffic (53.319)>other idle land(-39.741ha) >other agricultural land(28.33ha) > land for water facilities(20.912ha)>grassland(1.375ha); In land use synthetic index terms, the exploitation development degree in this region is also at a reasonable phase, but the development speed is quicker at an average rate of 4.533% each year; In land use change constitution index terms, grassland, land for urban areas and mining, and also land for traffic and other agriculture land are at a stably increasing condition, however, idle land, cultivated land and forest land are at the stably reducing condition.
(2) Land use change in Qiandao Lake town not only has been influenced by the natural factor, but also influenced by the social economy and the policy factors. In the selected driving factors, the distance to the federal highway is the most important natural driving factor, and the population density is the most important social economy factor.
(3) According the analysis of the logistic regress on driving factors, the more contributive driving factors to the analysis of land use change would be chosen into the simulation of the CLUE-S model and its result would be tested by land use map of 2004. The result indicates that CLUE-S model is capable of simulating correctly 84.71% and Kappa index 0.825 at the basic grid level (90m*90m). The land use temporal and spatial change simulation of the CLUE-S model in this region has achieved its goal. Based on that, the author designed two scenes to carry on the simulation to land use change of Year 2015. Comparing two status land use maps of Year 2015 and 2004, the obvious change is the expansion of land for urban areas and mining and the reduction of forest land, meanwhile, the expansion of land for urban areas and mining is usually based on the original land for urban areas and mining, which invaded around some land, such as forest land, cultivated land, idle land etc. Comparing with the two scenes, the transformation quantities of the cell unit of the first scene are more than that of the second, especially those cell units are forest land and cultivated land have been more transformed into land for urban areas and mining.
(4) In the scale of class type, forest land was the most essential landscape type, the matrix in the region was forest land. This land use type occupied 78.31% in 1993 and 75.23% in 2004. The scale of land of traffic increased from 3.22% in 1993 to 7.4% in 2004. In the all, the number of patches about land of traffic and garden land increased and showed the trend of larger, while the number of patches about cultivated and idle land reduced; In the scale of landscape, each kind of landscape type distribution of Qiandao Lake town tends to gathering and forms the certain scale; The tendency of the single kind of landscape occupy leading is weakening, which will cause the stability of the ecosystem. Meanwhile, we should also watch that with the unceasing reduction of forest land and the enhancement of the cities level, the ecological environment will be subjected to the certain influence. It shows: the ecological environment drops in quality; the development of the landscape interior is well-distributed, which reduces the resist-disturbing ability of the landscape; the edge effect reduces; ecosystem component is simplifying.
目前,国内对区域土地利用变化的研究多是以县级尺度为最小单位,而对乡镇一级的土地利用变化研究则很少涉及。本研究选择地处长江三角洲腹地、经济发展很快的杭州市千岛湖镇为研究对象,以1993和2004年的土地利用现状数据和统计数据为数据源,运用GIS技术、数理统计分析等方法,研究了该地区土地利用变化的过程、驱动机制。运用CLUE-S模型模拟、预测了2004年和2015年不同情景下的土地利用变化,并运用景观格局分析方法对千岛湖镇过去11年间的土地利用变化的生态效应进行了分析。可为编制乡镇一级土地利用规划和生态环境建设提供有效决策支持,具有一定的理论和现实意义。研究表明:
(1)在1993～2004年的11年间,千岛湖镇土地利用发生了较大的变化。从数量上来看,变化幅度大小依次是城镇及工矿用地＞林地＞未利用土地＞园地＞耕地＞交通运输用地＞其他未利用地＞其他农用地＞水利设施用地＞牧草地;从土地利用综合指数来看,该区域的开发程度还处于一个合理开发阶段,但以每年4.533%的速率发展,其发展速度还是较快的;从土地利用变化构成指数来看,研究区牧草地、城镇及工矿用地、交通运输用地和其它农用地处于稳定增加的状态,未利用土地、耕地和林地处于稳定减少状态。
(2)研究区土地利用变化既受自然因素的影响,又受社会经济和政策因素的影响,在所选择的驱动因子中,距国道的距离是最重要的自然驱动因子,人口密度是最重要的社会经济因子。
(3)通过对驱动因子Logistic分析,选择对研究区土地利用变化贡献较大的影响因子导入CLUE-S模型进行模拟,用2004年的土地利用现状图对模拟结果进行检验。结果显示在基本单元(90m*90m)的水平上的模拟的正确率为84.71%,Kappa指数值为0.825,这证明CLUE-S模型可以较为成功地模拟研究区域土地利用时空动态变化。基于此,设计两个情景对2015年的土地利用变化进行模拟,与2004年相比较,明显的变化是城镇工矿用地的扩张和林地的减少,并且城镇工矿用地的扩张多是在原有城镇及工矿用地的基础上向四周扩展,侵占的多是周边的耕地、林地、未利用地。情景一比情景二有更多的栅格单元发生了转化,特别是属性为耕地和林地的栅格较多转化成城镇工矿用地。
(4)在类型尺度水平上,林地是最主要的景观类型,是千岛湖镇景观的基质,1993年占78.31%,2004年占75.23%,城镇工矿用地比例由1993年的3.22%增加到2004年的7.4%,斑块个数总体上呈增加的趋势。在景观尺度水平上,千岛湖镇在合理的生态功能规划下,各种景观类型分布趋于聚集,形成一定的规模;单类景观占据主导的趋势在减弱将导致生态系统的稳固,同时也应看到,随着林地的不断减少,城镇化水平的不断提高,生态环境将会受到一定的影响。具体表现在:生境质量下降;景观内部均质化发展,降低了景观抗干扰能力;边缘效应降低;生态系统组分单一化。
LUCC (Land Use and Land Cover Change) is the main reason and response of the globe climate change, and also has a close relation with the sustainable development. LUCC model is the important method to predict future land use change. Selecting typical region of small scale spatial range as a study object is an effective path to deeply recognize and analyze the spatial change and driving mechanism about land use. It can make the research about LUCC develop more deeply and widely in china. The synthesized-integrated dynamic model which built on the clear space orientation foundation is the essential means to understand and know the region land use/land cover change, and is the crucial tool to study and appraise the land use change's pattern and influence in the future. It shows that the CLUE-S Model is suitable which to research the land use change of small scale and spatial region contrast with the other models.
Nowadays, the domestic researches on the region land use change always focus on the county scale, however the villages and towns scale are little involved. Employing the technology of GIS and the method of statistic analysis, the thesis studies the process and driving factors of land use change which utilizes statistic data from 1993 to 2004 of Qiandao Lake in Hangzhou city which lies in the center of the Yangtze River Delta. Based on CLUE-S model, the paper simulates and forecasts land use change in 2004 and in 2015 in the different conditions, and analyses the ecological effects during past 11 years by using the theory of landscape ecology. The study can provide effective support for land use plan and ecological environment construction in the village and town scale, therefore the paper has certain theoretical and realistic meaning.
The main conclusions are the followings:
(1) Over the past 11 years from 1993 to 2004, dramatic change has taken place on land use in Qiandao Lake town. In quantitative terms, the absolute change extent obeyed the following sequence: land for urban areas and mining(533.49ha)>forest land (-415.025ha) >idle land (-189.057ha) >garden land(137.941ha)>cultivated land (-131.545ha) > land for traffic (53.319)>other idle land(-39.741ha) >other agricultural land(28.33ha) > land for water facilities(20.912ha)>grassland(1.375ha); In land use synthetic index terms, the exploitation development degree in this region is also at a reasonable phase, but the development speed is quicker at an average rate of 4.533% each year; In land use change constitution index terms, grassland, land for urban areas and mining, and also land for traffic and other agriculture land are at a stably increasing condition, however, idle land, cultivated land and forest land are at the stably reducing condition.
(2) Land use change in Qiandao Lake town not only has been influenced by the natural factor, but also influenced by the social economy and the policy factors. In the selected driving factors, the distance to the federal highway is the most important natural driving factor, and the population density is the most important social economy factor.
(3) According the analysis of the logistic regress on driving factors, the more contributive driving factors to the analysis of land use change would be chosen into the simulation of the CLUE-S model and its result would be tested by land use map of 2004. The result indicates that CLUE-S model is capable of simulating correctly 84.71% and Kappa index 0.825 at the basic grid level (90m*90m). The land use temporal and spatial change simulation of the CLUE-S model in this region has achieved its goal. Based on that, the author designed two scenes to carry on the simulation to land use change of Year 2015. Comparing two status land use maps of Year 2015 and 2004, the obvious change is the expansion of land for urban areas and mining and the reduction of forest land, meanwhile, the expansion of land for urban areas and mining is usually based on the original land for urban areas and mining, which invaded around some land, such as forest land, cultivated land, idle land etc. Comparing with the two scenes, the transformation quantities of the cell unit of the first scene are more than that of the second, especially those cell units are forest land and cultivated land have been more transformed into land for urban areas and mining.
(4) In the scale of class type, forest land was the most essential landscape type, the matrix in the region was forest land. This land use type occupied 78.31% in 1993 and 75.23% in 2004. The scale of land of traffic increased from 3.22% in 1993 to 7.4% in 2004. In the all, the number of patches about land of traffic and garden land increased and showed the trend of larger, while the number of patches about cultivated and idle land reduced; In the scale of landscape, each kind of landscape type distribution of Qiandao Lake town tends to gathering and forms the certain scale; The tendency of the single kind of landscape occupy leading is weakening, which will cause the stability of the ecosystem. Meanwhile, we should also watch that with the unceasing reduction of forest land and the enhancement of the cities level, the ecological environment will be subjected to the certain influence. It shows: the ecological environment drops in quality; the development of the landscape interior is well-distributed, which reduces the resist-disturbing ability of the landscape; the edge effect reduces; ecosystem component is simplifying.
引文
铩颷1]刘纪远主编.中国资源环境遥感宏观调查与动态研究[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1996.
[2]Geist H J,Lambin E F.What drives tropical deforestation? LUCC Report Series.2001,(4).
[3]Turner B LⅡ,Clark W C,Kates R W,et al.The earth as transformed by human action.Global andregional changes in the biosphere over the past 300 years.Cambridge University Press(with ClarkUniversity).Cambridge,New York:Port Chester,Melbourne & Sydney,1990.
[4]周启星等.小城镇土地利用变化的生态效应分析[J].应用生态学报.2005,16(4):651-654
[5]张永民,赵士洞,P.H.Verburg.CLUE-S模型及其在奈曼旗土地利用时空动态变化模拟中的应用[J].自然资源学报.2003,18(3):310-318
[6]卢远.吉林西部土地利用土地覆盖变化及其生态效应[D].吉林大学博士论文.2005.6
[7]邢乐澄.论旅游环境的保护问题[J].环境与开发,1997.(3):15.
[8]史培军等.土地利用/覆盖变化研究的方法与实践[M],北京:科学出版社,2000.
[9]陈佑启,杨鹏.国际上土地利用/土地覆盖变化研究的新进展[J].经济地理,2001,21(1)
[10]IIASA.Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes in Europe and Northern Asia.1999 Research plan:14-21.Laxenburg,Austria.1998
[11]Fischer G.,Y.M.Ermoliev,Simulating the socio-economic and biogeophysical driving forces ofland use and land coyer change model.IIASA Publications Catalog-LUC Project,WP-96-010.
[12]卢远.吉林西部土地利用土地覆盖变化及其生态效应[D].吉林大学博士论文.2005.6
[13]Emilio F.Moran.News on the land project.Global Change News Letter,Jun.2003(54):19-21.
[14]Eric F Lambin,Turner B L,Helmut J Geist.Gloal enviroamen change:moving beyond the myths.GloalEnvironment change,2001,4(1-2):26-33.
[15]Fridolin Krausmann,Hemut Haberl,Niels B.Schulz,etal.Land-use change and socio-economicmetabolism in Austria-Part Ⅰ:driving forces of land-use change:1950-1995[J]Land Use Policy,2003,20:1-20.
[16]骆剑承,周成虎,杨艳.遥感地学智能图解模型支持下的土地覆盖/土地利用分类.自然资源学报,2001,16(2):179-183
[17]程昌秀,严泰来,朱德海,张玮.GIS与RS集成的高分辨率遥感影像分类技术在地类识别中的应用.中国农业大学学报,2001,6(3):50-54
[18]叶庆华,刘高焕,陆洲,龚争辉,Marco.基于GIS的时空复合体-土地利用变化图谱模型研究方法[J].地理科学进展,2002,21(4):349-357.
[19]郑海金,华珞,欧立业.中国土地利用/土地覆益变化研究综述[J].首都师范大学学报(自然科学版).2003,24(3)89-95.
[20]黎夏,叶嘉安.利用主成分分析改善土地利用变化的遥感监测精度--以珠江三解洲城市用地扩展为例.遥感学报,1997,1(4):282-259.
[21]陈宁强,戴锦芳.苏南现代化进程中的遥感土地利用动态监测.长江流域资源与环境,1999,8(3):288-293.
[22]张显峰,崔伟宏.运用RS、GPS和GIS技术进行大比例尺土地利用动态监测的实验研究.地理科学进展,1999,18(2):137-146.
[23]朱会义,李秀彬,何书金等.环渤海地区土地利用的时空变化分析.地理学报,2001,56(6):253-259.
[24]葛全胜,赵名荣,郑景云20世纪中国土地利用变化研究.地理学报,2000,55(6):698-706
[25]王思远,刘纪远,张增祥等.中国土地利用时空特征分析.地理学报,2001,56(6):631-639.
[26]石瑞香,康慕谊.NECT上农牧交错区耕地变化及其驱动力分析.北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2000,36(5):700-705.
[27]李静,赵庚星,范瑞彬.黄河三角洲土地利用及土地覆盖变化驱动力分析.西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2003,31(3):117-122.
铩颷28]龙楼花,李秀彬.长江沿线样带土地利用格局及其影响因子分析.地理学报,2001,56(4):417-425.
[29]顾朝林.北京土地利用/覆盖变化机制研究.自然资源学报,1999,14(4):307-312.
[30]赵庚星,王人潮,尚建业.黄河三角洲垦利县土地利用的系统动力学仿真模拟研究.浙江农业大学学报,1998,24(2):141-147.
[31]赵茂盛,Ronald P.Neilson,延晓冬等.气候变化对中国植被可能影响的模拟.地理学报.2002 Vol.57 No.1
[32]魏伟,周婕,许峰.大城市边缘区土地利用时空格局模拟[J],2006,15(2):174-179.
[33]邓祥征,刘纪远,战金艳,赵涛.太仆寺旗土地利用变化时空格局的动态模拟[J].地理研究,2004,23(2):147-156.
[34]贾华,祝国瑞,左藤洋平.土地利用变化研究中的细胞自动机与灰色局势决策.武汉测绘科技大学学报.1999,24(2):166-169.
[35]黎夏,叶嘉安.约束性单元自动演化CA模型及可持续城市发展形态的模拟.地理学报,1999,54(4):289-298.
[36]黎夏,叶嘉安.基于神经网络的单元自动机CA及真实和优化的城市模拟.地理学报,2002,57(2):159-166.
[37]仝川,郝敦元,高霞.利用马尔柯夫过程预测锡林河流域草原退化格局的变化[J]自然资源学报,2002,17(4):488-493.
[38]王铮.城市土地利用演变信息的数据挖掘--以上海市为例[J].地理研究,2002,21(6):675-681.
[39]李德成.利用马氏过程模拟和预测土壤侵蚀的动态演变[J].遥感学报,1995,10(2):89-96.
[40]Dawn C P,Thomas B,Steven M M.LUCC Report Series No.6:"Agent-Based Models of Land-Use/Land-CoverChange[R].Irvine,Caiifornia,USA:2001.
[41]Parker D C,S M Manson,et al.Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-coverchange:a review[A].Moran E,Ostrom E.CIPEC Working Paper[C].Bloomington,Indiana:Indiana University,CW-01-05,2001.
[42]张华,张勃.国际土地利用/覆盖变化模型研究综述[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(3):422-431.
[43]傅伯杰,陈利顶,马克明.黄土高原区小流域土地利用变化对生态环境的影响--以延安市羊圈沟流域为例.地理学报,1999,54(3):241-246.
[44]史培军,陈晋,潘耀忠.深圳市土地利用变化机制分析.地理学报,2000,55(2):151-160.
[45]蔡运龙,Barry Smit.全球气候变化下中国农业的脆弱性与适应对策.地理学报.1996,61(3):202-212.
[46]曾辉,邵楠,郭庆华.珠江二角洲东部常平地区景观异质性研究[J].地理学报,1999,54(3):255-262
[47]曾辉,郭庆华,喻红.东莞市风岗镇景观人工改造活动的空间分析[J].生态学报,1999,19(3):298-303
[48]张金屯,Picktt STA.城市化对森林植被、土壤和景观的影响[J].生态学报.1999,19(5):654-658
[49]吴波,慈龙骏.毛乌素沙地景观格局变化研究[J].生态学报,2001,21(2):191-196.
[50]贾宝全,慈龙骏,任一萍.绿洲景观动态变化分析[J].生态学报,2001,21(11):1947-1951
[51]王根绪,程国栋.干旱荒漠绿洲景观空间格局及其受水资源条件的影响分析[J].生态学报,2000.20(3):363-368.
[52]王根绪,程国栋,沈永平.干旱区受水资源胁迫的下游绿洲动态变化趋势分析--以黑河流域额济纳绿洲为例[J].应用生态学报,2002,13(5):564-568.
[53]张华,张勃,孟宝,丁文辉.张掖市土地利用/覆盖变化模拟[J].遥感技术与应用,2004,19(5):359-363.
[54]张永民,赵士洞,P.H.Verburg.CLUE-S模型及其在奈曼旗土地利用时空动态变化模拟中的应用[J].自然资源学报.2003,18(3):310-318
[55]Verburg P H,Soepboer W,Veldkamp A,et al.Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use:theCLUE-S Model[J].Envieonmental Management,2002,30(3):391-405.
[56]http://www.cluemodel.nl/[DB/OL].
[57]摆万奇等.大渡河上游地区土地利用动态模拟分析[J].地理研究,2005,24(2):206-213.
[58]Gobim A,Campling P,Feyen J.Logistic modeling to derive agricultural land determinants:a casestudy from southeastern Nigeria[J].Agriculture,Ecosystem and Environment,2002,89:213-228.
[59]Gabriela Bucini,Eric F Lambin.Fire impacts on vegetation in Central Africa:a remote-sensing-Basedstatistical analysis[J].Applied Geography,2002,22:27-48.
铩颷60]Pontius G G Jr,Laura C S.Land-cover change model Validation by an ROC method for IpswichWatershed,Massachusetts,USA,Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2001,85:239-248.
[61]王济川,郭志刚.Logistic回归模型--方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.
[62]Pontius R G.Quantification Error Versus Location Error in Comparison of CategoricalMaps.Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing,2000,66(8):1011-1016.
[63]谭永忠.县级尺度土地利用变化驱动机制及空间格局变化模拟研究[D].浙江大学,2004.
[64]沈琪.小流域土地利用变化模拟研究[M].兰州大学,2006.
[65]Formam R T T.Land Mosaics:the Ecology of Landscape and Regions[M].Cambridge:Cambridge UniversityPress,1995.
[66]George L W,Perry.Landscapes,space and equilibrium:shifting viewpoints[J].Progress in PhysicalGeography,2002,26:339-359.
[67]常学礼,邬建国.科尔沁沙地景观格局的特征分析[J].生态学报,1998,18(3):225-233.
[68]卢玲,李新,程国栋.黑河中游景观变化研究[J].应用生态学报,2001,12(1):68-74.
[69]角媛梅,马明国,肖笃宁,程国栋.干旱区农业绿洲景观格局研究[J].农村生态环境,2003.19(1):22-26.
[70]McGarigal K and Marks B.FRAGSTAS:Spatial pattern analysis program for quantifying landscapestructure.Reference manual.Forest Science Department,Oregon State University,Corvallis Oregon,March1994.62pp.+Append.
[71]Elkie P C,Rempel R Sand Carr A P.Patchanalyst user's manual,a tool for quantifying landscapestructur.Northeast Science & Technology.Ontario,February 1999.12.+Append.
[72]肖笃宁.景观生态学理论、方法和原理[M].北京:林业出版社.1991.
[73]肖笃宁.景观生态学研究进展[M].长沙:湖南科学技术出版社,1999.
[74]肖笃宁,李秀珍.当代景观生态学的进展和展望[J].地理科学,1997,17(4):356-363.
[75]潘竟虎,刘菊玲.黄河源区土地利用和景观格局变化及其生态环境效应[J].干旱区资源与环境,2005,19(4):69-74.
[76]李小玉,武开拓,肖笃宁.石羊河流域及其典型绿洲景观动态变化研究[J].冰川动土,2004,26(6):747-754.
[77]邹爱平,陈志彪.根溪河小流域侵蚀景观格局定量分析[J].福建师范大学学报,2006,22(4):19-23.
[78]王思远,刘纪远,张增祥等.中国土地利用时空特征分析[J].地理学报,2001,56(6):631-639.
[79]罗格平,周成虎,陈曦.干旱区绿洲土地利用与覆被变化过程[J].地理学报,2003.58(1):63-72.
[80]http://www.555u.net/view_1.asp?id=24[DB/OL].
[81]http://www.xzqh.org/quhua/33zj/0127ca.htm[DB/OL].
[82-85]淳安县统计局.淳安统计年鉴,1993-2004.
[86]朱会义,李秀彬,何书金等.环渤海地区土地利用的时空变化分析[J].地理学报,2001.56(3):253-260.
[87]朱会义,李秀彬.关于区域土地利用变化指数模型方法的讨论[J].地理学报,2003,58(5):643-650.
[88]王秀兰,包玉海.土地利用动态变化研究方法探讨[J].地理科学进展,199,18(1):81-87.
[89]许学强,牛剑如.城市地理学[M],北京:中国建筑出版社,1988.
[90]王波,唐志刚,濮励杰,彭补拙.区域土地利用动态变化及人文驱动力初步研究[J].土壤,2001,33(2):86-91.
[91]吴传均,郭焕成.中国土地利用[M].北京:科学出版社,1994.
[92]陈利顶.傅伯杰.黄河三角洲地区人类活动对景观结构的影响分析[J].生态学报,1996(4):337-344.
[93]陈利顶.徐建英,傅伯杰.斑块边缘效应的定量评价及其生态学意义[J].生态学报,2004,24(9):1827-1832.
[94]余兴修,杨贵山,李恒鹏.典型流域土地利用/覆被变化及其景观生态效应[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(1):13-19.
[2]Geist H J,Lambin E F.What drives tropical deforestation? LUCC Report Series.2001,(4).
[3]Turner B LⅡ,Clark W C,Kates R W,et al.The earth as transformed by human action.Global andregional changes in the biosphere over the past 300 years.Cambridge University Press(with ClarkUniversity).Cambridge,New York:Port Chester,Melbourne & Sydney,1990.
[4]周启星等.小城镇土地利用变化的生态效应分析[J].应用生态学报.2005,16(4):651-654
[5]张永民,赵士洞,P.H.Verburg.CLUE-S模型及其在奈曼旗土地利用时空动态变化模拟中的应用[J].自然资源学报.2003,18(3):310-318
[6]卢远.吉林西部土地利用土地覆盖变化及其生态效应[D].吉林大学博士论文.2005.6
[7]邢乐澄.论旅游环境的保护问题[J].环境与开发,1997.(3):15.
[8]史培军等.土地利用/覆盖变化研究的方法与实践[M],北京:科学出版社,2000.
[9]陈佑启,杨鹏.国际上土地利用/土地覆盖变化研究的新进展[J].经济地理,2001,21(1)
[10]IIASA.Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes in Europe and Northern Asia.1999 Research plan:14-21.Laxenburg,Austria.1998
[11]Fischer G.,Y.M.Ermoliev,Simulating the socio-economic and biogeophysical driving forces ofland use and land coyer change model.IIASA Publications Catalog-LUC Project,WP-96-010.
[12]卢远.吉林西部土地利用土地覆盖变化及其生态效应[D].吉林大学博士论文.2005.6
[13]Emilio F.Moran.News on the land project.Global Change News Letter,Jun.2003(54):19-21.
[14]Eric F Lambin,Turner B L,Helmut J Geist.Gloal enviroamen change:moving beyond the myths.GloalEnvironment change,2001,4(1-2):26-33.
[15]Fridolin Krausmann,Hemut Haberl,Niels B.Schulz,etal.Land-use change and socio-economicmetabolism in Austria-Part Ⅰ:driving forces of land-use change:1950-1995[J]Land Use Policy,2003,20:1-20.
[16]骆剑承,周成虎,杨艳.遥感地学智能图解模型支持下的土地覆盖/土地利用分类.自然资源学报,2001,16(2):179-183
[17]程昌秀,严泰来,朱德海,张玮.GIS与RS集成的高分辨率遥感影像分类技术在地类识别中的应用.中国农业大学学报,2001,6(3):50-54
[18]叶庆华,刘高焕,陆洲,龚争辉,Marco.基于GIS的时空复合体-土地利用变化图谱模型研究方法[J].地理科学进展,2002,21(4):349-357.
[19]郑海金,华珞,欧立业.中国土地利用/土地覆益变化研究综述[J].首都师范大学学报(自然科学版).2003,24(3)89-95.
[20]黎夏,叶嘉安.利用主成分分析改善土地利用变化的遥感监测精度--以珠江三解洲城市用地扩展为例.遥感学报,1997,1(4):282-259.
[21]陈宁强,戴锦芳.苏南现代化进程中的遥感土地利用动态监测.长江流域资源与环境,1999,8(3):288-293.
[22]张显峰,崔伟宏.运用RS、GPS和GIS技术进行大比例尺土地利用动态监测的实验研究.地理科学进展,1999,18(2):137-146.
[23]朱会义,李秀彬,何书金等.环渤海地区土地利用的时空变化分析.地理学报,2001,56(6):253-259.
[24]葛全胜,赵名荣,郑景云20世纪中国土地利用变化研究.地理学报,2000,55(6):698-706
[25]王思远,刘纪远,张增祥等.中国土地利用时空特征分析.地理学报,2001,56(6):631-639.
[26]石瑞香,康慕谊.NECT上农牧交错区耕地变化及其驱动力分析.北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2000,36(5):700-705.
[27]李静,赵庚星,范瑞彬.黄河三角洲土地利用及土地覆盖变化驱动力分析.西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2003,31(3):117-122.
铩颷28]龙楼花,李秀彬.长江沿线样带土地利用格局及其影响因子分析.地理学报,2001,56(4):417-425.
[29]顾朝林.北京土地利用/覆盖变化机制研究.自然资源学报,1999,14(4):307-312.
[30]赵庚星,王人潮,尚建业.黄河三角洲垦利县土地利用的系统动力学仿真模拟研究.浙江农业大学学报,1998,24(2):141-147.
[31]赵茂盛,Ronald P.Neilson,延晓冬等.气候变化对中国植被可能影响的模拟.地理学报.2002 Vol.57 No.1
[32]魏伟,周婕,许峰.大城市边缘区土地利用时空格局模拟[J],2006,15(2):174-179.
[33]邓祥征,刘纪远,战金艳,赵涛.太仆寺旗土地利用变化时空格局的动态模拟[J].地理研究,2004,23(2):147-156.
[34]贾华,祝国瑞,左藤洋平.土地利用变化研究中的细胞自动机与灰色局势决策.武汉测绘科技大学学报.1999,24(2):166-169.
[35]黎夏,叶嘉安.约束性单元自动演化CA模型及可持续城市发展形态的模拟.地理学报,1999,54(4):289-298.
[36]黎夏,叶嘉安.基于神经网络的单元自动机CA及真实和优化的城市模拟.地理学报,2002,57(2):159-166.
[37]仝川,郝敦元,高霞.利用马尔柯夫过程预测锡林河流域草原退化格局的变化[J]自然资源学报,2002,17(4):488-493.
[38]王铮.城市土地利用演变信息的数据挖掘--以上海市为例[J].地理研究,2002,21(6):675-681.
[39]李德成.利用马氏过程模拟和预测土壤侵蚀的动态演变[J].遥感学报,1995,10(2):89-96.
[40]Dawn C P,Thomas B,Steven M M.LUCC Report Series No.6:"Agent-Based Models of Land-Use/Land-CoverChange[R].Irvine,Caiifornia,USA:2001.
[41]Parker D C,S M Manson,et al.Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-coverchange:a review[A].Moran E,Ostrom E.CIPEC Working Paper[C].Bloomington,Indiana:Indiana University,CW-01-05,2001.
[42]张华,张勃.国际土地利用/覆盖变化模型研究综述[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(3):422-431.
[43]傅伯杰,陈利顶,马克明.黄土高原区小流域土地利用变化对生态环境的影响--以延安市羊圈沟流域为例.地理学报,1999,54(3):241-246.
[44]史培军,陈晋,潘耀忠.深圳市土地利用变化机制分析.地理学报,2000,55(2):151-160.
[45]蔡运龙,Barry Smit.全球气候变化下中国农业的脆弱性与适应对策.地理学报.1996,61(3):202-212.
[46]曾辉,邵楠,郭庆华.珠江二角洲东部常平地区景观异质性研究[J].地理学报,1999,54(3):255-262
[47]曾辉,郭庆华,喻红.东莞市风岗镇景观人工改造活动的空间分析[J].生态学报,1999,19(3):298-303
[48]张金屯,Picktt STA.城市化对森林植被、土壤和景观的影响[J].生态学报.1999,19(5):654-658
[49]吴波,慈龙骏.毛乌素沙地景观格局变化研究[J].生态学报,2001,21(2):191-196.
[50]贾宝全,慈龙骏,任一萍.绿洲景观动态变化分析[J].生态学报,2001,21(11):1947-1951
[51]王根绪,程国栋.干旱荒漠绿洲景观空间格局及其受水资源条件的影响分析[J].生态学报,2000.20(3):363-368.
[52]王根绪,程国栋,沈永平.干旱区受水资源胁迫的下游绿洲动态变化趋势分析--以黑河流域额济纳绿洲为例[J].应用生态学报,2002,13(5):564-568.
[53]张华,张勃,孟宝,丁文辉.张掖市土地利用/覆盖变化模拟[J].遥感技术与应用,2004,19(5):359-363.
[54]张永民,赵士洞,P.H.Verburg.CLUE-S模型及其在奈曼旗土地利用时空动态变化模拟中的应用[J].自然资源学报.2003,18(3):310-318
[55]Verburg P H,Soepboer W,Veldkamp A,et al.Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use:theCLUE-S Model[J].Envieonmental Management,2002,30(3):391-405.
[56]http://www.cluemodel.nl/[DB/OL].
[57]摆万奇等.大渡河上游地区土地利用动态模拟分析[J].地理研究,2005,24(2):206-213.
[58]Gobim A,Campling P,Feyen J.Logistic modeling to derive agricultural land determinants:a casestudy from southeastern Nigeria[J].Agriculture,Ecosystem and Environment,2002,89:213-228.
[59]Gabriela Bucini,Eric F Lambin.Fire impacts on vegetation in Central Africa:a remote-sensing-Basedstatistical analysis[J].Applied Geography,2002,22:27-48.
铩颷60]Pontius G G Jr,Laura C S.Land-cover change model Validation by an ROC method for IpswichWatershed,Massachusetts,USA,Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2001,85:239-248.
[61]王济川,郭志刚.Logistic回归模型--方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.
[62]Pontius R G.Quantification Error Versus Location Error in Comparison of CategoricalMaps.Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing,2000,66(8):1011-1016.
[63]谭永忠.县级尺度土地利用变化驱动机制及空间格局变化模拟研究[D].浙江大学,2004.
[64]沈琪.小流域土地利用变化模拟研究[M].兰州大学,2006.
[65]Formam R T T.Land Mosaics:the Ecology of Landscape and Regions[M].Cambridge:Cambridge UniversityPress,1995.
[66]George L W,Perry.Landscapes,space and equilibrium:shifting viewpoints[J].Progress in PhysicalGeography,2002,26:339-359.
[67]常学礼,邬建国.科尔沁沙地景观格局的特征分析[J].生态学报,1998,18(3):225-233.
[68]卢玲,李新,程国栋.黑河中游景观变化研究[J].应用生态学报,2001,12(1):68-74.
[69]角媛梅,马明国,肖笃宁,程国栋.干旱区农业绿洲景观格局研究[J].农村生态环境,2003.19(1):22-26.
[70]McGarigal K and Marks B.FRAGSTAS:Spatial pattern analysis program for quantifying landscapestructure.Reference manual.Forest Science Department,Oregon State University,Corvallis Oregon,March1994.62pp.+Append.
[71]Elkie P C,Rempel R Sand Carr A P.Patchanalyst user's manual,a tool for quantifying landscapestructur.Northeast Science & Technology.Ontario,February 1999.12.+Append.
[72]肖笃宁.景观生态学理论、方法和原理[M].北京:林业出版社.1991.
[73]肖笃宁.景观生态学研究进展[M].长沙:湖南科学技术出版社,1999.
[74]肖笃宁,李秀珍.当代景观生态学的进展和展望[J].地理科学,1997,17(4):356-363.
[75]潘竟虎,刘菊玲.黄河源区土地利用和景观格局变化及其生态环境效应[J].干旱区资源与环境,2005,19(4):69-74.
[76]李小玉,武开拓,肖笃宁.石羊河流域及其典型绿洲景观动态变化研究[J].冰川动土,2004,26(6):747-754.
[77]邹爱平,陈志彪.根溪河小流域侵蚀景观格局定量分析[J].福建师范大学学报,2006,22(4):19-23.
[78]王思远,刘纪远,张增祥等.中国土地利用时空特征分析[J].地理学报,2001,56(6):631-639.
[79]罗格平,周成虎,陈曦.干旱区绿洲土地利用与覆被变化过程[J].地理学报,2003.58(1):63-72.
[80]http://www.555u.net/view_1.asp?id=24[DB/OL].
[81]http://www.xzqh.org/quhua/33zj/0127ca.htm[DB/OL].
[82-85]淳安县统计局.淳安统计年鉴,1993-2004.
[86]朱会义,李秀彬,何书金等.环渤海地区土地利用的时空变化分析[J].地理学报,2001.56(3):253-260.
[87]朱会义,李秀彬.关于区域土地利用变化指数模型方法的讨论[J].地理学报,2003,58(5):643-650.
[88]王秀兰,包玉海.土地利用动态变化研究方法探讨[J].地理科学进展,199,18(1):81-87.
[89]许学强,牛剑如.城市地理学[M],北京:中国建筑出版社,1988.
[90]王波,唐志刚,濮励杰,彭补拙.区域土地利用动态变化及人文驱动力初步研究[J].土壤,2001,33(2):86-91.
[91]吴传均,郭焕成.中国土地利用[M].北京:科学出版社,1994.
[92]陈利顶.傅伯杰.黄河三角洲地区人类活动对景观结构的影响分析[J].生态学报,1996(4):337-344.
[93]陈利顶.徐建英,傅伯杰.斑块边缘效应的定量评价及其生态学意义[J].生态学报,2004,24(9):1827-1832.
[94]余兴修,杨贵山,李恒鹏.典型流域土地利用/覆被变化及其景观生态效应[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(1):13-19.