基于家庭生命周期的住房保障需求研究
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摘要
住房是人类生存发展的基本要素之一，解决人口住房问题，是每个国家的难题。作为世界上人口最多的国家，中国政府投入了大量的人力物力财力进行保障性住房建设，但却在多个城市却出现了保障性住房被“弃租”、“弃购”的现象。产生此类矛盾的根本原因不是住房保障供给总量不足，而是住房保障供给结构与被保障家庭对住房保障的需求不匹配。只有深入研究住房保障需求，才能为住房保障政策制定提供依据，使住房保障措施发挥最大效用。
本文通过对国内外住房保障研究文献的梳理，发现当前住房保障研究多集中于供给模式、成功经验总结等方面，鲜有对个体家庭住房保障需求特征、住房保障需求变化规律、影响因素等方面的研究。
本文以界定住房保障需求，明确住房保障需求的本质，确定住房保障需求的主体范围及构成为切入点，搭建由人口学、福利学、需求层次理论、梯度消费理论组成的研究住房保障需求的理论框架，并分析住房保障需求的消费者剩余、家庭消费选择及社会福利等经济学意义。在理论研究的基础上，将经典的家庭生命周期理论应用于住房保障需求研究，以引起家庭人口数量及结构变化的家庭事件为节点划分家庭生命周期阶段，并引入粒子群模糊聚类法对家庭所处生命周期阶段进行识别。根据家庭生命周期循环往复的规律，建立住房保障需求的家庭生命周期螺旋，并通过对该螺旋模型中影响住房保障需求因素的分析确定研究住房保障需求的四个维度，进而构建家庭生命周期住房保障需求结构方程理论模型。
通过用调查数据分析住房保障需求结构方程理论模型，分别研究住房现状、住房保障政策认知及住房保障需求等研究维度的周期性特征；又通过拟合函数间的对比分析确定住房保障需求更符合威布尔函数变化，证实住房保障需求结构方程理论模型具有周期性特征。
在理论研究及数据证明的基础上，通过对住房保障需求结构方程理论模型检验、模型预判、信度检验、适配度分析及结构方程模型中变量关系的多次修正，确定与样本数据适配的住房保障需求结构方程模型，并根据研究结论分析家庭生命周期对住房保障需求的直接影响及间接影响，提出应以家庭生命周期理论指导住房保障政策制定，建立阶段型住房保障体系，综合控制影响因素提供多样化住房保障服务，及应结合公共交通规划进行保障性住房建设等政策建议。
从需求角度研究住房保障，完善了住房保障研究理论体系；将家庭生命周期理论用于住房保障需求研究，建立住房保障需求家庭生命周期螺旋，刻画住房保障需求家庭生命周期阶段规律；应用改进粒子群模糊聚类法对住房保障需求家庭生周期阶段进行划分，为家庭生周期阶段判定提供新方法；构建基于家庭生命周期的住房保障需求结构方程理论模型，并用实证法研究住房保障需求的影响维度及其关系，为住房保障需求的量化研究提供新的手段；探讨政策认知对住房保障需求的影响，揭示影响住房保障需求的新因素。
从家庭住房保障需求入手，研究生命周期不同阶段的住房保障需求特点，用统计与数理方法揭示住房保障需求的周期性规律，完善住房保障理论研究体系；为科学合理的制定住房保障政策提供理论依据；为有效实施住房保障政策、提高保障效用建立理论基础。
Housing is one of the basic elements of human survival and development,access to fitful housing security is the basic human rights. It is the problem eachcountry must face to, that guarantee the low-income population have house to live.As the most populous country in the world, China has invested a lot of manpower,material and financial resources to carry out the construction of indemnificatoryhousing. However, the phenomenon of indemnificatory housing be abandoned torent or buy has happened in many cities. Facing such strange phase, the studybelieves that according to the demand of public, the effectiveness ofindemnificatory housing measures will achieve the maximum.
Summarizes the research on the indemnificatory housing at home and abroadfirstly, and found that the research has focused on the macro system and supply andthe summary of local successful experiences, but less research on micro-familydemand characteristics, variation, impact factors for indemnificatory housingsecurity.
To study the demand for indemnificatory housing, it defines the concept ofdemand for indemnificatory housing, and explores the basic theory of that, and findsthat it could dialysis the demand for indemnificatory housing if it is studied with thefamily life-cycle. The study establishes research theoretical framework whichincludes the classic hierarchy of needs theory, the housing filtering theory, gradientconsumer theory, demography, welfare science and economics. It then build thefamily life cycle spiral depth of the demand for indemnificatory housing, whichreveals the family life-cycle characteristics of the demand for indemnificatoryhousing, and provides a solid theoretical foundation for the establishment ofdemand for indemnificatory housing structural equation model.
After theoretical analysis, it makes the questionnaire on demand characteristicsof the various stages of the family life-cycle, and analyses the data with factoranalysis, reliability test, homogeneity test, interpreted regression analysis andexploratory factor analysis. The results prove that the questionnaires are higherreliability; the data can reflect the demand characteristics of the family life-cycleindemnificatory housing, and the two variables have a multivariate correlation. Itprovides quantitative evidences for the demand for indemnificatory housingstructural equation model. Then, the demand for indemnificatory housing is fittingfunctions. By a comparative analysis among the fitting functions to find that theWeibull function is better than the normal distribution function for the demand forindemnificatory housing fimily lifecycle characteristics.
The study analysis the demand for indemnificatory housing structural equationmodel with the survey data. It studies the cyclical features of the demand forindemnificatory housing on the housing situation, the indemnificatory housingpolicy awareness and the expected demand for respectively. It fits the functions ofthe demand for indemnificatory, juxtaposes and analysis them to find that theWeibull function is more suitable. All these confirmes that the demand forindemnificatory housing structural equation model has cyclical characteristics.
With the theoretical framework and the results of data, finally the studyestablishes the family life-cycle demand for indemnificatory housing structuralequation model. It carries reliability test, the goodness-of-fit test, and modifies. Thestudy proposes some policy proposals and initiatives, such as that the family life-cycle theory should guide indemnificatory housing policy, integrated controlinfluencing factors, stage housing security system, planning the site ofindemnificatory housing according to public transport, and so on.
The study improve indemnificatory housing theory research system, provides atheoretical basis for improve indemnificatory housing policies, provides atheoretical basis for the effective implementation and utility maximization of theindemnificatory housing policy. The study contributes to good the social securitysystem, the establishment of indemnificatory housing system dynamic sustainabledevelopment, and the formation of the housing supply system.
本文通过对国内外住房保障研究文献的梳理，发现当前住房保障研究多集中于供给模式、成功经验总结等方面，鲜有对个体家庭住房保障需求特征、住房保障需求变化规律、影响因素等方面的研究。
本文以界定住房保障需求，明确住房保障需求的本质，确定住房保障需求的主体范围及构成为切入点，搭建由人口学、福利学、需求层次理论、梯度消费理论组成的研究住房保障需求的理论框架，并分析住房保障需求的消费者剩余、家庭消费选择及社会福利等经济学意义。在理论研究的基础上，将经典的家庭生命周期理论应用于住房保障需求研究，以引起家庭人口数量及结构变化的家庭事件为节点划分家庭生命周期阶段，并引入粒子群模糊聚类法对家庭所处生命周期阶段进行识别。根据家庭生命周期循环往复的规律，建立住房保障需求的家庭生命周期螺旋，并通过对该螺旋模型中影响住房保障需求因素的分析确定研究住房保障需求的四个维度，进而构建家庭生命周期住房保障需求结构方程理论模型。
通过用调查数据分析住房保障需求结构方程理论模型，分别研究住房现状、住房保障政策认知及住房保障需求等研究维度的周期性特征；又通过拟合函数间的对比分析确定住房保障需求更符合威布尔函数变化，证实住房保障需求结构方程理论模型具有周期性特征。
在理论研究及数据证明的基础上，通过对住房保障需求结构方程理论模型检验、模型预判、信度检验、适配度分析及结构方程模型中变量关系的多次修正，确定与样本数据适配的住房保障需求结构方程模型，并根据研究结论分析家庭生命周期对住房保障需求的直接影响及间接影响，提出应以家庭生命周期理论指导住房保障政策制定，建立阶段型住房保障体系，综合控制影响因素提供多样化住房保障服务，及应结合公共交通规划进行保障性住房建设等政策建议。
从需求角度研究住房保障，完善了住房保障研究理论体系；将家庭生命周期理论用于住房保障需求研究，建立住房保障需求家庭生命周期螺旋，刻画住房保障需求家庭生命周期阶段规律；应用改进粒子群模糊聚类法对住房保障需求家庭生周期阶段进行划分，为家庭生周期阶段判定提供新方法；构建基于家庭生命周期的住房保障需求结构方程理论模型，并用实证法研究住房保障需求的影响维度及其关系，为住房保障需求的量化研究提供新的手段；探讨政策认知对住房保障需求的影响，揭示影响住房保障需求的新因素。
从家庭住房保障需求入手，研究生命周期不同阶段的住房保障需求特点，用统计与数理方法揭示住房保障需求的周期性规律，完善住房保障理论研究体系；为科学合理的制定住房保障政策提供理论依据；为有效实施住房保障政策、提高保障效用建立理论基础。
Housing is one of the basic elements of human survival and development,access to fitful housing security is the basic human rights. It is the problem eachcountry must face to, that guarantee the low-income population have house to live.As the most populous country in the world, China has invested a lot of manpower,material and financial resources to carry out the construction of indemnificatoryhousing. However, the phenomenon of indemnificatory housing be abandoned torent or buy has happened in many cities. Facing such strange phase, the studybelieves that according to the demand of public, the effectiveness ofindemnificatory housing measures will achieve the maximum.
Summarizes the research on the indemnificatory housing at home and abroadfirstly, and found that the research has focused on the macro system and supply andthe summary of local successful experiences, but less research on micro-familydemand characteristics, variation, impact factors for indemnificatory housingsecurity.
To study the demand for indemnificatory housing, it defines the concept ofdemand for indemnificatory housing, and explores the basic theory of that, and findsthat it could dialysis the demand for indemnificatory housing if it is studied with thefamily life-cycle. The study establishes research theoretical framework whichincludes the classic hierarchy of needs theory, the housing filtering theory, gradientconsumer theory, demography, welfare science and economics. It then build thefamily life cycle spiral depth of the demand for indemnificatory housing, whichreveals the family life-cycle characteristics of the demand for indemnificatoryhousing, and provides a solid theoretical foundation for the establishment ofdemand for indemnificatory housing structural equation model.
After theoretical analysis, it makes the questionnaire on demand characteristicsof the various stages of the family life-cycle, and analyses the data with factoranalysis, reliability test, homogeneity test, interpreted regression analysis andexploratory factor analysis. The results prove that the questionnaires are higherreliability; the data can reflect the demand characteristics of the family life-cycleindemnificatory housing, and the two variables have a multivariate correlation. Itprovides quantitative evidences for the demand for indemnificatory housingstructural equation model. Then, the demand for indemnificatory housing is fittingfunctions. By a comparative analysis among the fitting functions to find that theWeibull function is better than the normal distribution function for the demand forindemnificatory housing fimily lifecycle characteristics.
The study analysis the demand for indemnificatory housing structural equationmodel with the survey data. It studies the cyclical features of the demand forindemnificatory housing on the housing situation, the indemnificatory housingpolicy awareness and the expected demand for respectively. It fits the functions ofthe demand for indemnificatory, juxtaposes and analysis them to find that theWeibull function is more suitable. All these confirmes that the demand forindemnificatory housing structural equation model has cyclical characteristics.
With the theoretical framework and the results of data, finally the studyestablishes the family life-cycle demand for indemnificatory housing structuralequation model. It carries reliability test, the goodness-of-fit test, and modifies. Thestudy proposes some policy proposals and initiatives, such as that the family life-cycle theory should guide indemnificatory housing policy, integrated controlinfluencing factors, stage housing security system, planning the site ofindemnificatory housing according to public transport, and so on.
The study improve indemnificatory housing theory research system, provides atheoretical basis for improve indemnificatory housing policies, provides atheoretical basis for the effective implementation and utility maximization of theindemnificatory housing policy. The study contributes to good the social securitysystem, the establishment of indemnificatory housing system dynamic sustainabledevelopment, and the formation of the housing supply system.
引文
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