基于扩大内需的中国农村居民消费变动研究
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摘要
消费作为拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一,在国民经济运行中具有重要地位。20世纪90年代末以来,扩大内需成为宏观调控的方向和目标。其中,扩大农村需求尤其是扩大农村消费需求,对拉动内需和解决“三农”问题都具有重要的意义,日益受到政府和理论界的关注。
本文以消费经济理论为基础,运用实证分析和比较研究等方法,分析市场经济体制确立以来,中国农村居民消费需求、消费水平、消费结构、消费市场的变动趋势和特点,并对影响农村居民消费行为的因素进行了定量和定性分析,为促进农村居民消费提供理论支持。
本文重点对以下方面进行了研究,研究内容及成果主要包括:
1.确定本文研究对象为中国农村居民的消费行为,将从微观和宏观两个角度分析农村居民的消费特点和变动趋势,并考察影响农村居民消费的因素。界定消费、农村居民及农村居民消费的相关概念,并分别从消费方式、边际效用和消费者选择及消费函数方面奠定居民消费行为研究的理论基础。
2.研究中国农村居民消费需求变动及与经济增长的关系,并对支出法GDP各构成项对经济增长的拉动作用进行动态比较。认为1992-2008年中国农村居民总体上属于轻度滞后的消费模式。农村居民消费支出总额除个别年份外逐年增加,农村居民消费率几乎逐年下降。农村居民消费支出对GDP增长的贡献率在1997年后没有发挥过重要影响,城镇居民消费支出和资本形成总额对GDP增长影响较大。
农村居民人均消费支出与人均GDP存在双向格兰杰因果关系,任一变量的前期信息都会影响另一变量的当期信息。通过构建中国农村居民宏观消费函数并进行检验发现,农村居民消费具有很强的惯性。人均GDP与农村居民人均消费支出之间的长期均衡关系对农村居民人均消费支出变动具有十分强烈的制约作用,短期农村居民人均消费支出将围绕长期均衡关系不断进行调整。
3.揭示农村居民家庭消费水平和消费结构的特点和变动趋势,并通过ELES模型分析农村居民消费结构。认为总体上农村居民消费水平不断提高,消费支出结构不断优化;食品、衣着、家庭设备用品及服务比重下降,居住和交通通讯比重上升;交通通讯序列位次明显提升。从1993年到2008年,农村居民生活消费支出结构序列变动最频繁的项目是交通通讯,变动最活跃的年份是2000-2003年。
从城乡居民消费水平和消费结构的动态比较看,城乡收入差距总体呈上升趋势;城镇居民消费支出结构序列变动比农村居民更频繁;农村居民食品和居住支出比重明显高于城镇居民。从不同收入组农村居民的动态比较看,农村内部不同收入组之间收入差距在扩大,消费支出差距略有缩小,消费支出金额差距最明显的是交通通讯和居住。从不同地区的动态比较看,收入和消费支出地区差距有所缩小。东部地区农村居民居住、交通通讯支出比重高于其他地区;东北地区医疗保健、衣着比重高于其他地区,家庭设备比重低于其他地区。
横截面数据ELES模型实证分析表明,除食品、居住外,2008年城镇居民其他六类商品及服务的边际消费倾向均高于同期农村居民。2008年农村居民食品、文教娱乐、其他商品及服务的边际消费倾向比2002年有所降低。2008年农村居民基本需求支出为2534.84元,比当年低收入户的实际生活消费支出高390.06元;城镇居民基本需求支出为4940.16元,是同期农村居民基本需求支出的1.95倍。除居住外,2008年城镇居民各类商品及服务的收入弹性都高于农村居民;城镇居民各类商品及服务的价格弹性都高于农村居民,而农村居民对居住、交通通讯的价格变动反应最敏感;城乡居民食品价格变动对其他七类商品及服务需求量影响最大。时间序列数据2ELES模型实证分析结果表明,农村居民边际消费倾向在1993-1996(Ⅰ)阶段最高,2005-2008(Ⅲ)阶段次之,1997-2004(Ⅱ)阶段最低。
4.考察农村消费品市场的变动特征和变动趋势,并对农村居民家庭耐用品消费需求进行专项研究,同时评价正在实施的“家电下乡”政策。从城乡消费品零售额比重变动看,城市消费品零售额比重不断上升,县及县以下比重不断下降,县以下所占比重下降尤为明显;从消费品市场数量、比重及成交额变动看,城乡消费品市场发展不平衡且差距不断扩大。
农村居民对彩电、洗衣机、摩托车、电冰箱等传统耐用品的需求正逐步得到满足;空调、电脑、油烟机、热水器等较高档耐用品有望成为未来几年农村居民家庭耐用品消费热点。耐用品拥有数量的地区差距相当明显,发展阶段和升级程度的地区性差异也十分显著;各地区生活习惯和消费环境的差异,使同等收入和消费水平下的不同地区耐用品偏好也存在差异。除人均纯收入的绝对水平外,其增长率也是影响农村居民家庭耐用品需求的重要因素。
“家电下乡”对于正在富裕起来、有一定积蓄和购买力、有家电产品购买意愿的农村居民起到促进消费的作用,但最终还要受到收入水平的制约。因此,在鼓励农村居民消费的同时,要切实提高农村居民收入,尤其要关注低收入户的脱贫增收。实施过程中,要加强监督,防止积压滞销、假冒伪劣产品借机进入农村市场,确保补贴资金落到农村居民手中。
5.构建农村居民消费函数模型,实证分析农村居民消费与收入、流动性约束、不确定性等影响因素之间的关系。在验证消费主要取决于持久收入观点的同时,表明持久收入和暂时收入对农村居民消费的影响在不同阶段可能有所不同。1985-1996年和1997-2008年农村居民消费的持久收入弹性分别为0.9110和0.8901,农村居民持久收入边际消费倾向分别为0.912和0.725;持久收入的边际消费倾向和收入弹性均有所下降。
对农村居民消费进行λ假说检验,可知我国农村居民消费对当期收入存在过度敏感性。通过对农村居民消费过度敏感性的原因进行实证分析,认为造成这种过度敏感性的主要原因是流动性约束,市场风险引起的农业收入波动对农村居民消费的影响不显著。
农村居民消费函数实证分析的政策含义是要促进农村居民收入尤其是持久收入稳定增长,稳定农村居民收入预期,改革农村金融服务体系,缓解流动性约束;同时分担农村居民面临的各种不确定性,包括自然风险、市场风险和社会风险导致的收入和支出波动。
6.分析公共产品供给、市场体系建设、企业产品结构等因素对农村居民消费行为的影响,将未列入农村居民消费函数的因素纳入研究范畴。认为道路、电力、通讯等生产生活性基础设施建设除直接增加农村社会需求和通过提高农村居民增收能力间接促进其消费外,还可改善农村居民消费环境和放松农村居民消费约束。
教育和医疗保健支出除满足当前生存与生活需要外,还可提高人力资本的知识与技能水平,保持劳动者身心健康,从而为未来获取更高收入奠定体力与智力基础。农村社会保障事业主要从两条路径影响农村居民消费行为,一是通过社会保障支出增加农村居民收入;再者通过建立健全社会保障制度稳定农村居民收入和支出预期。
完善的交通通讯基础设施和发达的商业网点对农村居民消费具有明显的促进作用。加强农村市场监管、整顿农村市场秩序,能够促进农村消费品市场发育,降低农村居民的购买成本。生产企业的产品供给,其中主要是产品结构,也是影响农村居民消费行为的重要因素。
7.根据农村居民消费特点、消费热点和制约农村居民消费行为的现实因素,探讨并提出促进农村居民消费的思路和措施。提出建立农村居民持续增收的长效机制和制度保证是扩大农村消费需求的根本之策。在稳定增加农村居民收入的同时,要以改革农村金融服务体系和分担农村居民风险为支撑,缓解流动性约束和不确定性影响。
近期来看,扩大农村消费需求的重点是实施技术层面的政策措施,如建设农村基础设施和市场体系、引导企业开拓农村市场及生产适销对路的产品等;目的是在现有农村居民购买力的基础上,通过完善农村消费的配套设施,保障潜在需求向现实需求的顺利转化。
As one of the troika pulling economic growth, consumption played an important role in national economy. Since the late 1990 years, expanding domestic demand had become the orientation and objective of macroeconomic control. Among them, expanding rural demand, especially rural consumption demand, was significant for pulling domestic demand and solving the“three rural”issues, which had been given increasing concern by the government and the theoretical circles.
Based on the theory of consumption economy and using methods of empirical analysis and comparative analysis, this thesis had analyzed changes trendency and characteristics of consumption demand、consumption level、consumption structure、consumption market of rural household in China since the market economic established, and conducted quantitative and qualitative analysis on factors affecting consumption behavior of rural household with a view to provide theoretical support for promoting consumption demand of rural household.
Main research contents and achievements were as follows:
1. Identify consumption behavior of rural household as the study object, define consumption、rural household、rural household consumption and other related concepts, and laid the theoretical basis for consumer behavior research respectively from perspectives of consumption patterns、marginal utility and consumer choice、consumption function.
2. Study on changes trendency of rural household consumption demand and its relationship with economic growth, as well as comparing the pulling effect of components of GDP by expenditure approach. Judging from the degree of adaptation of rural household consumption to economic growth, rural household in China lagged slightly in consumption patterns from 1992 to 2008. Rural household consumption expenditures gradually increased except for a few years, but rural household consumption rate dropped almost every year. Rural household consumption had not played an important influence to GDP growth after 1997, and urban household consumption expenditures and Gross Capital Formation had been important.
Construct rural household’s macro-consumption function and examine it, finding that lagged per capita consumption expenditure of rural household had an stronger effect on currect per capita consumption expenditure of rural household than currect per capita GDP, and rural household consumption behavior were of strong inertia. The equilibrium relationship in long run between the per capita GDP and per capita consumption expenditure of rural household had strong constraint on short fluctuation of per capita consumption expenditure of rural household, and short-term per capita consumption expenditure of rural household would adjust according to the long-run equilibrium relationship continuously.
3. Reveal changes trendency and characteristics of consumption level and consumption structure of rural household, and analyze features of consumption structure of rural household through ELES demand function model. The overall level of rural household consumption had been rising, and had entered into overall well-off stage nowadays from early 1990s’food and clothing stage. Consumption expenditure structure of rural household in general continued to be optimized. The proportion of food、clothing、household facilities articles and services had dropped, and that of residence、transport and communications had increased; The rank of transport and communications in the sequence rose significantly. From 1993 to 2008, the item that had changed the most frequent was transport and communications, and the years in which consumption expenditure structure of rural household had changed most actively was 2000-2003.
In general, income gap between urban and rural households beacame bigger; Consumption expenditure structure sequence of urban household changed more frequently than rural household; the item which rose fastest was also transport and communications, followed by health care and medical services. The proportion of food and residence of rural household was significantly higher than that of urban households. Intra-rural income gap between different income-groups expanded; the items which had most apparent expenditure gap were transport and communications and residence. As income levels increased, the proporition of total of food、clothing and residence got downward, and that of transport and communications、education cultural and recreation and services and healthe care and medical services got upward. Income and consumption gaps between different regions had narrowed. The proporition of expenditure on residence and transport and communications of rural household in eastern region was higher than that in other areas; the proporition of health care and medicine services and clothing in northeast region was higher, and the proporition of household facilities articles and services was lower; the proporition of food in central and western regions were higher than that in eastern and northeast regions.
Cross-section ELES analysis showed that the MPC of urban household in other six items were higher than rural households except for food and residence in 2008. The MPC of food、education cultural and recreation and sevices and miscellaneous goods and services of rural household in 2008 were lower than in 2002. Expenditure for the basic needs of rural household in 2008 was 2534.84 yuan, which was 390.06 yuan higher than low income household’s real consumption expenditure; Expenditure for the basic needs of urbal household was 4940.16 yuan, which was 1.95 times rural household. In 2008, the income elasticity of all goods and services of urban household was higher than that of rural household except for residence; the price elasticity of all goods and services of urban household was higher than rural household’s, and rural household was more sensitive to price changes of residence and transport and communications. Changes in food price of urban and rural household made greast impact on seven other categories’demand. The result of time-series 2ELES analysis showed that the MPC of rural household was highest in 1993-1996(Ⅰ)phase, followed by 2005-2008(Ⅲ)phase, and 1997-2004(Ⅱ)phase was lowest.
4. Analyze changes trendency and characteristics of rural market, and conduct a special research on durable consumer goods, as well as evaluate“household electrical appliances to the countryside”policy. Seeing from retail sales and its growth of urban and rural consumer goods, the proportion of retail sales of consumer goods in city was expanding and that in county and under county level was shrinking, particularly under county level. Urban and rural consumer goods market developed unbalanced and the gap was widening.
Rural household’s demand for color TV sets、washing machines、motorcycles、refrigerators and other traditional durable goods would gradually been met, and air-conditioner、computers、smoke machines、water heaters and other advanced durable goods was expected to become hot spots in next several years. Inter-regional and regional disparities in quantities of durable consumer goods were obvious, and variation in development stadge and upgrade degree was also significant. Regional difference of living habits and consumption environment made regions with the same level of income and consumption prefered differently. In addition to the absolute level of per capita net income, its growth rate was also an important factor affecting rural households’demand for durable consumer goods.
“Household electrical appliances to the countryside”would play a role in consumption promotion of that part of rural household who was being rich、had some savings and purchasing power and was ready to buy household electrical appliances. So this policy would eventually be constrained by income levels of rural household. Therefore, while encouraging consumption of rural household, their income should be improved effectively, particularly those low-income household. In the process of implementing the policy, supervision should be strengthened to prevent fake and shoddy procucts taking the opportunity to enter rural market and ensure the subsidies fall into the hands of rural household.
5. Construct rural household consumption function model, and analyze the relationship between consumption and income、liquidity constraints、uncertainties and other factors of rural household. While verifying the view of consumption mainly depending on permanent income, this chapter showed that the impact on rural household’s consumption made by permanent income and temporary income may vary at different phases. Permanent income elasticity was 0.911 in 1985-1996 and 0.890 in 1997-2008; the MPC of permanent income was 0.912 in 1985-1996 and 0.725 in 1997-2008. In the period of income growing slower, the MPC and income elasticity of permanent income both declined. In theλhypothesis testing, rural household consumption was sensitive to the current income. This excess sensitivity was mainly due to liquidity constraints, and fluctuations in agricultural income arising from market risk had no significant effect on rural household consumption.
Policy implication was to promote the income of rural household, especially permanent income to grow stably. Stabilize income expectation of rural household, and reform rural financial service system to ease the liquidity constraints of rural household; Share various uncertainties that faced rural household, including fluctuations in income and expenditure resulting from natural risks、market risks and social risks.
6. Analyze the effect that public goods、market system、product structure and other factors played on rural household consumption, and make the factors not included in rural household consumption function drawn into the scope of this chapter. Thinking that roads、electricity、communications and other production and living infrastructure would drive consumption demand of rural household by improving rural environment and relaxing consumption constraints.
Education and medicine service expenditure would lay physical and intellectual foundation for rural household to obtain higher income in the future. Social security affected the consumption behavior of rural household mainly from two paths: one was increasing rural household’s income through social security expenditure; the other was stabilizing income and expenditure expectation of rural household through building a sound social security system.
Improved transport and communications infrastructure and developed commercial networks played a significant role in promoting rural household consumption. Strengthing rural market supervision and rectifying rural market order could promote the development of rural consumer goods market and reduce the purchase cost of rural household. Products supply of manufacturers, mainly the products structure, was also an important factor affecting consumption behavior of rural household.
7. Explore and propose ideas and measures of promoting rural household consumption and expanding rural consumption market. Proposing that establishing the long-term mechanism and system security of increasing rural household income sustainedly was the fundamental policy. At the same time of increasing rural household income steadly, we must reform rural fianscial service system and share risks of rural household to ease liquidity constraints and uncertainties.
In the short term, the implement of technical policies and measures was the focus of expandinig rural consumption demand, such as constructing rural infrastructure and market system、guiding enterprises to develop rural market and produce marketable products and so on; The purpose was to protect potential demand to transform into real demand smoothly by improving rural supplementary facilities and perfecting rural consumption environment.
本文以消费经济理论为基础,运用实证分析和比较研究等方法,分析市场经济体制确立以来,中国农村居民消费需求、消费水平、消费结构、消费市场的变动趋势和特点,并对影响农村居民消费行为的因素进行了定量和定性分析,为促进农村居民消费提供理论支持。
本文重点对以下方面进行了研究,研究内容及成果主要包括:
1.确定本文研究对象为中国农村居民的消费行为,将从微观和宏观两个角度分析农村居民的消费特点和变动趋势,并考察影响农村居民消费的因素。界定消费、农村居民及农村居民消费的相关概念,并分别从消费方式、边际效用和消费者选择及消费函数方面奠定居民消费行为研究的理论基础。
2.研究中国农村居民消费需求变动及与经济增长的关系,并对支出法GDP各构成项对经济增长的拉动作用进行动态比较。认为1992-2008年中国农村居民总体上属于轻度滞后的消费模式。农村居民消费支出总额除个别年份外逐年增加,农村居民消费率几乎逐年下降。农村居民消费支出对GDP增长的贡献率在1997年后没有发挥过重要影响,城镇居民消费支出和资本形成总额对GDP增长影响较大。
农村居民人均消费支出与人均GDP存在双向格兰杰因果关系,任一变量的前期信息都会影响另一变量的当期信息。通过构建中国农村居民宏观消费函数并进行检验发现,农村居民消费具有很强的惯性。人均GDP与农村居民人均消费支出之间的长期均衡关系对农村居民人均消费支出变动具有十分强烈的制约作用,短期农村居民人均消费支出将围绕长期均衡关系不断进行调整。
3.揭示农村居民家庭消费水平和消费结构的特点和变动趋势,并通过ELES模型分析农村居民消费结构。认为总体上农村居民消费水平不断提高,消费支出结构不断优化;食品、衣着、家庭设备用品及服务比重下降,居住和交通通讯比重上升;交通通讯序列位次明显提升。从1993年到2008年,农村居民生活消费支出结构序列变动最频繁的项目是交通通讯,变动最活跃的年份是2000-2003年。
从城乡居民消费水平和消费结构的动态比较看,城乡收入差距总体呈上升趋势;城镇居民消费支出结构序列变动比农村居民更频繁;农村居民食品和居住支出比重明显高于城镇居民。从不同收入组农村居民的动态比较看,农村内部不同收入组之间收入差距在扩大,消费支出差距略有缩小,消费支出金额差距最明显的是交通通讯和居住。从不同地区的动态比较看,收入和消费支出地区差距有所缩小。东部地区农村居民居住、交通通讯支出比重高于其他地区;东北地区医疗保健、衣着比重高于其他地区,家庭设备比重低于其他地区。
横截面数据ELES模型实证分析表明,除食品、居住外,2008年城镇居民其他六类商品及服务的边际消费倾向均高于同期农村居民。2008年农村居民食品、文教娱乐、其他商品及服务的边际消费倾向比2002年有所降低。2008年农村居民基本需求支出为2534.84元,比当年低收入户的实际生活消费支出高390.06元;城镇居民基本需求支出为4940.16元,是同期农村居民基本需求支出的1.95倍。除居住外,2008年城镇居民各类商品及服务的收入弹性都高于农村居民;城镇居民各类商品及服务的价格弹性都高于农村居民,而农村居民对居住、交通通讯的价格变动反应最敏感;城乡居民食品价格变动对其他七类商品及服务需求量影响最大。时间序列数据2ELES模型实证分析结果表明,农村居民边际消费倾向在1993-1996(Ⅰ)阶段最高,2005-2008(Ⅲ)阶段次之,1997-2004(Ⅱ)阶段最低。
4.考察农村消费品市场的变动特征和变动趋势,并对农村居民家庭耐用品消费需求进行专项研究,同时评价正在实施的“家电下乡”政策。从城乡消费品零售额比重变动看,城市消费品零售额比重不断上升,县及县以下比重不断下降,县以下所占比重下降尤为明显;从消费品市场数量、比重及成交额变动看,城乡消费品市场发展不平衡且差距不断扩大。
农村居民对彩电、洗衣机、摩托车、电冰箱等传统耐用品的需求正逐步得到满足;空调、电脑、油烟机、热水器等较高档耐用品有望成为未来几年农村居民家庭耐用品消费热点。耐用品拥有数量的地区差距相当明显,发展阶段和升级程度的地区性差异也十分显著;各地区生活习惯和消费环境的差异,使同等收入和消费水平下的不同地区耐用品偏好也存在差异。除人均纯收入的绝对水平外,其增长率也是影响农村居民家庭耐用品需求的重要因素。
“家电下乡”对于正在富裕起来、有一定积蓄和购买力、有家电产品购买意愿的农村居民起到促进消费的作用,但最终还要受到收入水平的制约。因此,在鼓励农村居民消费的同时,要切实提高农村居民收入,尤其要关注低收入户的脱贫增收。实施过程中,要加强监督,防止积压滞销、假冒伪劣产品借机进入农村市场,确保补贴资金落到农村居民手中。
5.构建农村居民消费函数模型,实证分析农村居民消费与收入、流动性约束、不确定性等影响因素之间的关系。在验证消费主要取决于持久收入观点的同时,表明持久收入和暂时收入对农村居民消费的影响在不同阶段可能有所不同。1985-1996年和1997-2008年农村居民消费的持久收入弹性分别为0.9110和0.8901,农村居民持久收入边际消费倾向分别为0.912和0.725;持久收入的边际消费倾向和收入弹性均有所下降。
对农村居民消费进行λ假说检验,可知我国农村居民消费对当期收入存在过度敏感性。通过对农村居民消费过度敏感性的原因进行实证分析,认为造成这种过度敏感性的主要原因是流动性约束,市场风险引起的农业收入波动对农村居民消费的影响不显著。
农村居民消费函数实证分析的政策含义是要促进农村居民收入尤其是持久收入稳定增长,稳定农村居民收入预期,改革农村金融服务体系,缓解流动性约束;同时分担农村居民面临的各种不确定性,包括自然风险、市场风险和社会风险导致的收入和支出波动。
6.分析公共产品供给、市场体系建设、企业产品结构等因素对农村居民消费行为的影响,将未列入农村居民消费函数的因素纳入研究范畴。认为道路、电力、通讯等生产生活性基础设施建设除直接增加农村社会需求和通过提高农村居民增收能力间接促进其消费外,还可改善农村居民消费环境和放松农村居民消费约束。
教育和医疗保健支出除满足当前生存与生活需要外,还可提高人力资本的知识与技能水平,保持劳动者身心健康,从而为未来获取更高收入奠定体力与智力基础。农村社会保障事业主要从两条路径影响农村居民消费行为,一是通过社会保障支出增加农村居民收入;再者通过建立健全社会保障制度稳定农村居民收入和支出预期。
完善的交通通讯基础设施和发达的商业网点对农村居民消费具有明显的促进作用。加强农村市场监管、整顿农村市场秩序,能够促进农村消费品市场发育,降低农村居民的购买成本。生产企业的产品供给,其中主要是产品结构,也是影响农村居民消费行为的重要因素。
7.根据农村居民消费特点、消费热点和制约农村居民消费行为的现实因素,探讨并提出促进农村居民消费的思路和措施。提出建立农村居民持续增收的长效机制和制度保证是扩大农村消费需求的根本之策。在稳定增加农村居民收入的同时,要以改革农村金融服务体系和分担农村居民风险为支撑,缓解流动性约束和不确定性影响。
近期来看,扩大农村消费需求的重点是实施技术层面的政策措施,如建设农村基础设施和市场体系、引导企业开拓农村市场及生产适销对路的产品等;目的是在现有农村居民购买力的基础上,通过完善农村消费的配套设施,保障潜在需求向现实需求的顺利转化。
As one of the troika pulling economic growth, consumption played an important role in national economy. Since the late 1990 years, expanding domestic demand had become the orientation and objective of macroeconomic control. Among them, expanding rural demand, especially rural consumption demand, was significant for pulling domestic demand and solving the“three rural”issues, which had been given increasing concern by the government and the theoretical circles.
Based on the theory of consumption economy and using methods of empirical analysis and comparative analysis, this thesis had analyzed changes trendency and characteristics of consumption demand、consumption level、consumption structure、consumption market of rural household in China since the market economic established, and conducted quantitative and qualitative analysis on factors affecting consumption behavior of rural household with a view to provide theoretical support for promoting consumption demand of rural household.
Main research contents and achievements were as follows:
1. Identify consumption behavior of rural household as the study object, define consumption、rural household、rural household consumption and other related concepts, and laid the theoretical basis for consumer behavior research respectively from perspectives of consumption patterns、marginal utility and consumer choice、consumption function.
2. Study on changes trendency of rural household consumption demand and its relationship with economic growth, as well as comparing the pulling effect of components of GDP by expenditure approach. Judging from the degree of adaptation of rural household consumption to economic growth, rural household in China lagged slightly in consumption patterns from 1992 to 2008. Rural household consumption expenditures gradually increased except for a few years, but rural household consumption rate dropped almost every year. Rural household consumption had not played an important influence to GDP growth after 1997, and urban household consumption expenditures and Gross Capital Formation had been important.
Construct rural household’s macro-consumption function and examine it, finding that lagged per capita consumption expenditure of rural household had an stronger effect on currect per capita consumption expenditure of rural household than currect per capita GDP, and rural household consumption behavior were of strong inertia. The equilibrium relationship in long run between the per capita GDP and per capita consumption expenditure of rural household had strong constraint on short fluctuation of per capita consumption expenditure of rural household, and short-term per capita consumption expenditure of rural household would adjust according to the long-run equilibrium relationship continuously.
3. Reveal changes trendency and characteristics of consumption level and consumption structure of rural household, and analyze features of consumption structure of rural household through ELES demand function model. The overall level of rural household consumption had been rising, and had entered into overall well-off stage nowadays from early 1990s’food and clothing stage. Consumption expenditure structure of rural household in general continued to be optimized. The proportion of food、clothing、household facilities articles and services had dropped, and that of residence、transport and communications had increased; The rank of transport and communications in the sequence rose significantly. From 1993 to 2008, the item that had changed the most frequent was transport and communications, and the years in which consumption expenditure structure of rural household had changed most actively was 2000-2003.
In general, income gap between urban and rural households beacame bigger; Consumption expenditure structure sequence of urban household changed more frequently than rural household; the item which rose fastest was also transport and communications, followed by health care and medical services. The proportion of food and residence of rural household was significantly higher than that of urban households. Intra-rural income gap between different income-groups expanded; the items which had most apparent expenditure gap were transport and communications and residence. As income levels increased, the proporition of total of food、clothing and residence got downward, and that of transport and communications、education cultural and recreation and services and healthe care and medical services got upward. Income and consumption gaps between different regions had narrowed. The proporition of expenditure on residence and transport and communications of rural household in eastern region was higher than that in other areas; the proporition of health care and medicine services and clothing in northeast region was higher, and the proporition of household facilities articles and services was lower; the proporition of food in central and western regions were higher than that in eastern and northeast regions.
Cross-section ELES analysis showed that the MPC of urban household in other six items were higher than rural households except for food and residence in 2008. The MPC of food、education cultural and recreation and sevices and miscellaneous goods and services of rural household in 2008 were lower than in 2002. Expenditure for the basic needs of rural household in 2008 was 2534.84 yuan, which was 390.06 yuan higher than low income household’s real consumption expenditure; Expenditure for the basic needs of urbal household was 4940.16 yuan, which was 1.95 times rural household. In 2008, the income elasticity of all goods and services of urban household was higher than that of rural household except for residence; the price elasticity of all goods and services of urban household was higher than rural household’s, and rural household was more sensitive to price changes of residence and transport and communications. Changes in food price of urban and rural household made greast impact on seven other categories’demand. The result of time-series 2ELES analysis showed that the MPC of rural household was highest in 1993-1996(Ⅰ)phase, followed by 2005-2008(Ⅲ)phase, and 1997-2004(Ⅱ)phase was lowest.
4. Analyze changes trendency and characteristics of rural market, and conduct a special research on durable consumer goods, as well as evaluate“household electrical appliances to the countryside”policy. Seeing from retail sales and its growth of urban and rural consumer goods, the proportion of retail sales of consumer goods in city was expanding and that in county and under county level was shrinking, particularly under county level. Urban and rural consumer goods market developed unbalanced and the gap was widening.
Rural household’s demand for color TV sets、washing machines、motorcycles、refrigerators and other traditional durable goods would gradually been met, and air-conditioner、computers、smoke machines、water heaters and other advanced durable goods was expected to become hot spots in next several years. Inter-regional and regional disparities in quantities of durable consumer goods were obvious, and variation in development stadge and upgrade degree was also significant. Regional difference of living habits and consumption environment made regions with the same level of income and consumption prefered differently. In addition to the absolute level of per capita net income, its growth rate was also an important factor affecting rural households’demand for durable consumer goods.
“Household electrical appliances to the countryside”would play a role in consumption promotion of that part of rural household who was being rich、had some savings and purchasing power and was ready to buy household electrical appliances. So this policy would eventually be constrained by income levels of rural household. Therefore, while encouraging consumption of rural household, their income should be improved effectively, particularly those low-income household. In the process of implementing the policy, supervision should be strengthened to prevent fake and shoddy procucts taking the opportunity to enter rural market and ensure the subsidies fall into the hands of rural household.
5. Construct rural household consumption function model, and analyze the relationship between consumption and income、liquidity constraints、uncertainties and other factors of rural household. While verifying the view of consumption mainly depending on permanent income, this chapter showed that the impact on rural household’s consumption made by permanent income and temporary income may vary at different phases. Permanent income elasticity was 0.911 in 1985-1996 and 0.890 in 1997-2008; the MPC of permanent income was 0.912 in 1985-1996 and 0.725 in 1997-2008. In the period of income growing slower, the MPC and income elasticity of permanent income both declined. In theλhypothesis testing, rural household consumption was sensitive to the current income. This excess sensitivity was mainly due to liquidity constraints, and fluctuations in agricultural income arising from market risk had no significant effect on rural household consumption.
Policy implication was to promote the income of rural household, especially permanent income to grow stably. Stabilize income expectation of rural household, and reform rural financial service system to ease the liquidity constraints of rural household; Share various uncertainties that faced rural household, including fluctuations in income and expenditure resulting from natural risks、market risks and social risks.
6. Analyze the effect that public goods、market system、product structure and other factors played on rural household consumption, and make the factors not included in rural household consumption function drawn into the scope of this chapter. Thinking that roads、electricity、communications and other production and living infrastructure would drive consumption demand of rural household by improving rural environment and relaxing consumption constraints.
Education and medicine service expenditure would lay physical and intellectual foundation for rural household to obtain higher income in the future. Social security affected the consumption behavior of rural household mainly from two paths: one was increasing rural household’s income through social security expenditure; the other was stabilizing income and expenditure expectation of rural household through building a sound social security system.
Improved transport and communications infrastructure and developed commercial networks played a significant role in promoting rural household consumption. Strengthing rural market supervision and rectifying rural market order could promote the development of rural consumer goods market and reduce the purchase cost of rural household. Products supply of manufacturers, mainly the products structure, was also an important factor affecting consumption behavior of rural household.
7. Explore and propose ideas and measures of promoting rural household consumption and expanding rural consumption market. Proposing that establishing the long-term mechanism and system security of increasing rural household income sustainedly was the fundamental policy. At the same time of increasing rural household income steadly, we must reform rural fianscial service system and share risks of rural household to ease liquidity constraints and uncertainties.
In the short term, the implement of technical policies and measures was the focus of expandinig rural consumption demand, such as constructing rural infrastructure and market system、guiding enterprises to develop rural market and produce marketable products and so on; The purpose was to protect potential demand to transform into real demand smoothly by improving rural supplementary facilities and perfecting rural consumption environment.
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