金融脱媒下我国商业银行的现状分析与路径选择
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摘要
金融脱媒最早起源于美国。当时出现的现象是在存款的定期利率上限受到政府政策或其他因素的管制背景下,当出现货币市场利率高于存款机构的支付存款利率时,由于货币本身的逐利性,大量的存款机构的资金就会流向货币市场。而从更广义的层面看,金融脱媒更包含资金需求方绕过金融中介直接在货币市场利用短期融资工具而获得资金融通的现象。20世纪中后期的美国,“Q条例”的颁布使得大量存款为追求更高的收益而流出商业银行体系,从而使商业银行信用收缩、盈利下降,并最终导致商业银行经营遇到困难。随后在其他西方主要发达国家,如日本、德国、意大利、英国也相继出现类似的“金融脱媒”现象。
金融脱媒最早出现在我国,应该要追溯到大约十几年前。直到最近几年,其才成为理论界研究的热点之一。从本质上看,“金融脱媒”是脱离银行这个传统金融介质的资金融通现象与形式,同时也是资金脱离银行信用中介进行的间接融资直接化现象。虽然目前银行业仍然占绝对的主导地位和垄断地位,但随着我国资本市场的不断发展及金融创新技术的不断完善,银行的传统经营模式将会受到前所未有的挑战。然而,目前国内学者对金融脱媒对商业银行影响的研究主要集中于解释现象本身和定性分析,并未对证券市场和债券市场影响商业银行的因素进行具体的分析,更没有利用实证研究对金融脱媒进行定量分析使得不能更具体了解脱媒的影响效应并采取合适的策略积极应对这一形势。因此,也就无法给公司管理者和有关监管部门提供更有操作意义的政策和建议。
根据目前的统计资料可以看出：国外银行业的非利息收入约占其总收入比例高达36%以上,而中国银行业的非利息收入仅仅只占其收入总额不到20%。在国内银行业现有的资产结构中,信贷类资产一般占八成左右,直接导致息差收入在总收入结构中基本占据了八到九成的比例,使得国内商业银行的业务发展和利润增长在绝对程度上依赖于信贷资产规模的扩张,信贷资产规模如果出现缩水,银行将面临着极为重大的考验。因此,银行对于信贷业务的依赖性与依存度决定了“贷款与银行如鱼水不能分离一样”,而近几年随着我国信贷规模的相对紧缩,致使“金融脱媒”的现象愈演愈烈,银行业已将其视为巨大的挑战,引起业内广泛高度的关注。
银行业在中国金融业中处于主体地位,是国家重点扶持和监控的行业,因为它关系到了国家经济安全和社会稳定。因此,面对我国金融脱媒日益发展这一重要现实,就迫切需要进一步研究和评价其对商业银行影响程度,并对证券市场和债券市场影响商业银行的因素进行研究,本文试图基于金融中介的理论解释,通过现实的经验数据对理论分析加以验证,对影响商业银行实际的效应进行客观的评价和揭示,从而对金融脱媒背景下资本市场影响商业银行的具体效应,以及金融市场结构优化、利率市场化和资金配置优化等深层制度对于我国商业银行创新路径选择的作用,做出基于一种新的理论假说下的系统回答。
本文样本主要来源于《2002—-2011年中国金融统计年鉴》、《《2002—-2011年中国统计年鉴》及中国债券信息网。本文从中筛选出了2002年1月——2011年12月的存款余额、贷款余额、GDP、股票市场筹资金额、企业债发行规模、短期融资券及中期票据发行规模、资产支持证券发行规模等六个指标的季度数据。
本文将利用向量自回归模型(vector autoregression,VAR)及脉冲响应函数(impulse response function,IRF)分析我国证券市场以及企业债、短期融资券、资产证券化等方面的融资规模对我国商业银行传统业务即存、贷款的冲击程度。
本文由四大部分内容构成,第一部分是导论,即第1章,主要介绍本论文的研究背景、现实意义、选题依据、研究思路、研究方法、主要结论以及论文的创新与不足等内容。第二部分是研究的理论分析和现实依据,包括第2章、第3章、第4章,首先阐述了金融中介及相关作用,进而基于对以交易成本为核心的传统金融中介理论、以风险管理和参与成本为核心的现代金融中介理论阶段和当代金融功能阶段等金融中介理论的分析,引出了这些理论对金融脱媒理论的指导意义,并从国外和国内学者相关研究成果两个层面全面阐述了金融脱媒的原因和效应,界定并介绍了金融脱媒与其主要的表现方式,再次从政府管制、技术发展、企业和居民投融资环境的变化方面来说明金融脱媒产生的原因,接着从存贷款的流失、中间业务比重增长和银行经营难度增加这三个目前银行业面临的最紧迫压力角度分析金融脱媒的现象对商业银行所产生的影响,随后根据我国商业银行制度演进与现阶段金融环境的更迭详细研究了我国商业银行功能发展历程。首先,将我国商业银行制度演进分成了四个发展阶段,并对应分析了各阶段我国商业银行金融功能发展历程；其次,结合现阶段金融环境变化的实际情况、金融脱媒与间接融资直接化发展趋势,研究了我国商业银行现阶段核心功能的扩展与金融功能结构优化；最后,研究了我国商业银行在金融脱媒背景下不同于其他国家商业银行的表现——中小企业纷纷“金融脱媒”,难以获得银行的金融支持,本章将从制度的层面分析深层次原因,并提出了相应的解决措施。第三部分证券市场和债券市场影响商业银行因素的实证检验和分析,是论文的核心内容,包括第5章、第6章。通过实证分析,并利用向量白回归模型(VAR)、脉冲响应函数(IRF)实证分析结论表明：随着国内资本市场的蓬勃发展、多元化投资工具的逐渐普及运用及新的企业制度创新的逐渐推广,导致储蓄实现分流的渠道不断增多、速度不断加快、范围日趋扩大,越来越多的民间资金绕过金融中介机构直接进入流通领域,从而大大降低了以商业银行为主体的传统中介在金融体系中的重要性；第四部分主要是研究结论、政策建议,即第7章、第8章。籍此,利用我国金融统计年鉴的经验数据,借助向量自回归模型(VAR)、脉冲响应函数(IRF)等统计分析方法,对商业银行资产和负债规模与证券市场之间的关系,进行了系统地验证。研究成果的创新性主要可概括为：
第一,视角的创新。综观大量金融脱媒的研究文献,大部分是较为简单的介绍金融脱媒的起源及定性分析其对商业银行的影响,并未对证券市场和债券市场影响商业银行的因素进行具体的分析。本文首先将金融脱媒与商业银行功能创新有机结合在一起,并在此基础上利用实证方法对证券、债券的作用进行研究,试图以一个崭新的视角开辟探究金融脱媒背景下商业银行转型的思路。
第二,方法的创新。目前现有的研究文献基本是对金融脱媒进行定性分析,而较少对金融脱媒进行定量分析,尤其是缺乏脱媒对商业银行的效应进行实证研究。因此本文将利用向量自回归模型(VAR)、脉冲响应函数(IRF)及格兰杰因果关系检验等现代计量经济学实证研究方法对金融脱媒进行定量分析,以便能更好的掌握金融脱媒对商业银行的具体影响,并采取合适的策略应对这一形势。首先,将上市公司首次发行新股、企业债、中期票据及短期融资券等融资方式定量化,得到相应的解释变量；其次,结合GDP的增长规律,分析金融脱媒对我国商业银行最重要的业务即存款和贷款这两项指标的冲击。
第三,观点的创新。对金融脱媒下我国商业银行转型功能创新的研究,既是深化我国金融改革过程中对实践途径的一次探索,同样也是中国经济金融理论完善与发展的一次理论探讨,对于我国推进金融改革的深化与发展均具有重要的理论与现实意义。全文从当前金融脱媒现象入手,以商业银行功能创新为研究重心,通过分析商业银行功能创新的内在原因、形成机理,以及商业银行功能创新与金融市场结构优化等系列问题,试图从一个崭新的视角探求一条完善我国金融体系和深化金融市场的实践路径。
总之,“金融脱媒”是金融系统改革所面临的不可逆转的潮流与趋势,必须正确与客观的分析当前形势,积极应对主动调整。转变经营观念,完善与健全经营模式,化“危”为“机”,促进各类型业务均衡发展,培养出新的核心竞争力,实现银行业新的跨越式发展。唯有如此,才会从真正意义上实现构建一个健康和富有竞争力的银行体系的目标。同样,我国银行体系现存的诸多问题当前最需要的也正是“标本兼治”。
From the U.S. financial disintermediation. Narrowly speaking, at that time is defined as the maximum interest rates on term deposits under control conditions, when money market interest rates higher than the deposit-taking institutions will pay deposit interest rates, the deposit-taking institutions will deposit funds into money market instruments, a large number of phenomena. Broadly speaking, financial disintermediation refers to the deposit of funds not only direct the flow of high interest rates of assets, but also refers to the demand side of funds directly to bypass the financial intermediaries in the money market by issuing short-term debt instruments."Financial disintermediation" phenomenon first appeared in the late20th century the United States,"Q Ordinance" promulgated by making savings in the commercial banking system out of turn to the financial markets to seek higher investment income, so that commercial bank credit contraction profit decline in the operating commercial banks in difficulties. Japan, France, Italy, Germany, Britain and other Western developed countries have also followed a "financial disintermediation" phenomenon. China's "financial disintermediation," the emergence of the term is about10years ago, but became involved in the study of financial theory is the recent hot topics in2012. Financial disintermediation is a financial phenomenon, is "out of banks, the traditional "financial intermediation" financing and the form of financial intermediation, but also funds from the bank credit by the intermediary or the media directly to the phenomenon of indirect financing. For my country, although the banking sector is an absolute dominant position and monopoly position, but with China's continuous development of capital markets and financial innovation continue to improve the bank's traditional business model will be an unprecedented challenge. However, scholars of the current domestic financial disintermediation of commercial banks to study the impact of focus on interpretation and qualitative analysis of the phenomenon itself, and not the stock market and bond market factors that affect the commercial banks carry out specific analysis, but did not make use of empirical research on financial disintermediation can make quantitative analysis of more specific effects of free media and to take appropriate strategy to deal with this situation, therefore, can not Regulatory authorities and corporate managers to provide a more meaningful policy and operational recommendations. Statistics show that China's banking sector of its non-interest income accounted for only19percent of total income, while foreign banks in non-interest income ratio of more than35%. Existing assets in the banking sector structure, the credit assets in general accounts for about80%of income in total income margin of90%of the structure, therefore, loans and banks such as fish and water can not be separated, the so-called "financial disintermediation" phenomenon in the banking industry is seen as a serious challenge, once the industry's attention. In this mode, the commercial bank's business development and profit growth to a large extent dependent on the size of the expansion of credit assets, the size of the event of credit assets fell, the banks will face a major test. Banking in China's financial industry in a dominant position is to support and monitor the state's key industries, as it relates to the national economic security and social stability.
Therefore, in the face of growing disintermediation in China's financial development and the urgent need for further study and evaluation of its impact on the commercial banks of this important reality, and the stock market and bond market factors that affect the commercial banks to carry out research, based on the attempt to explain the theory of financial intermediation through the reality of empirical data to verify the theoretical analysis and practical effect of an objective evaluation and revealed, thus the context of financial disintermediation effects of the capital market of the specific effects of commercial banks, as well as structural optimization of the financial markets, interest rates and capital market-oriented configuration Deep system optimization in China's commercial banks to choose the path of the role of innovation to make a new theory based on a hypothesis to answer under the system. This article comes mainly from the sample,"2008Statistical Yearbook of China's financial","China Statistical Yearbook2008" and China's bond information networks. In this paper, selected from20001month-December2008the balance of deposits, loans, GDP, stock market, the amount of financing, corporate debt issuance, short-term financing bill and the size of the medium-term note issuance, asset-backed securities, such as issue size six indicators of quarterly data. This article will use the vector autoregression(VAR) and impulse response function(IRF) analysis of the stock market and corporate debt, short-term finance certificates, asset securitization financing, such as the size of our traditional business of commercial banks that depositors, the impact of the extent of the loan.
This article has four major elements, the first part of the Introduction, namely, Chapter1, this paper introduces the research background, and practical significance, based on topics, research ideas, research methods, the main conclusions, as well as innovation and the lack of paper, etc.. The second part is the research based on theoretical analysis and practical, including Chapter2, Chapter3, Chapter4, first of all, on the role of financial intermediation and related, and based on transaction costs as the core of the traditional theory of financial intermediation, risk management and participation costs as the core of the modern theory of financial intermediation and financial functions of the contemporary stage of the theory of financial intermediation, such as analysis, the theory leads to disintermediation of the financial guidance of the theory of meaning, and scholars from abroad and domestic research results related to two aspects of a comprehensive financial disintermediation on the causes and effects, as defined and described the disintermediation of the financial performance of its main means, and then from government control, technology development, investment and financing businesses and residents of the changes in the environment to illustrate the financial disintermediation causes then the loss of deposits and loans, the proportion of intermediary business growth and increase the difficulty of the three banks point of view of financial disintermediation of commercial banks and thus the basis of the evolution of China's commercial banking system and financial environment changes at this stage a detailed study of China's commercial banks function the course of development. First of all, China's commercial banking system in accordance with the evolution of the four stages of development, corresponding to an analysis of China's commercial banking and financial functions of the development process; Secondly, the combination of changes in financial conditions at this stage, financial disintermediation direct and indirect financing of the development trend of study at this stage China's commercial banks to expand the core function of structural optimization and financial functions; Finally, the study of China's commercial banks in the context of financial disintermediation in other countries is different from the performance of commercial banks-small and medium enterprises have "financial disintermediation," access to bank financial support from the system level, this chapter analyzes the deep-seated reasons, and the corresponding solution.; The third part of the stock market and bond market factors affect the commercial banks and analysis of empirical testing is the core content of papers, including the Chapter5, Chapter6. Through empirical analysis and the use of vector autoregression model (VAR), impulse response function (IRF) concluded that the empirical analysis:With the development of capital markets and the growing diversification of investment instruments in general, continue to accelerate the diversion of savings, more capital flows bypassing financial intermediaries to enter the field of finance capital directly, thereby reducing the commercial banks as the mainstay of traditional intermediaries in the financial system, the importance of; fourth part is the main conclusion of the study, policy recommendations, that is, Chapter7, Chapter8. Take, using the Statistical Yearbook of China's financial experience data using vector autoregressive model (VAR), impulse response function (IRF), such as statistical analysis methods, assets and liabilities of commercial banks in the securities market size and the relationship between a system to verify. Innovative research can be summarized mainly as follows:
Firstly, the perspective of innovation. Looking at the large number of financial disintermediation of the research literature, most of them relatively simple to introduce the origin of financial disintermediation and its impact on commercial banks to carry out a qualitative analysis of the impact, but not the stock market and bond market factors that affect the commercial banks carry out specific analysis. This article first financial disintermediation of commercial banks and functional innovation in combination with organic and in the use of empirical methods based on the securities, bonds, the role of research, trying to open up a new perspective into the context of financial disintermediation of commercial banks in transition ideas. Secondly, the methods of innovation. In the current research literature available on the basic analysis of financial disintermediation, and less financial disintermediation of quantitative analysis, especially in disintermediation of commercial banks to carry out empirical studies of the effect. Therefore, this article will use the vector autoregressive model (VAR), impulse response function (IRF) pass Granger causality test and other modern methods of econometric empirical studies of financial disintermediation quantitative analysis in order to better grasp the financial disintermediation of the specific impact of the commercial banks and to take appropriate strategies to deal with this situation. First of all, the will for the first time the issue of new shares, issue new shares of listed companies, corporate debt, medium-term notes and short-term financing coupons quantitative mode of financing has been the interpretation of the corresponding variable; Secondly, the combination of GDP growth in the law, analysis of our financial disintermediation commercial bank that is the most important business deposits and loans of the impact of these two indicators. Thirdly, the perspective of innovation. Of financial disintermediation of commercial banks under the transition functions of our innovative research, the practice of financial deepening is the way to my research, but also enrich and develop China's economic and financial theory an extension of China's financial deepening and financial development, are of great theoretical and practical significance. This article from the current financial disintermediation phenomenon starting to commercial banks to function as a focus on innovation, commercial banks through the analysis of functional innovation in the inherent causes of the formation mechanism, and function of commercial banks in the financial market innovation and range of issues such as structural optimization, an attempt from a new a perfect perspective to explore China's financial system and deepen the financial markets, the practice of the path.
All in all, Financial disintermediation in the background, the commercial banks must conform to the trend of the times, a correct understanding of the current situation, objective analysis, face-to-face, take the initiative to adapt to this trend, take full advantage of financial disintermediation brought about by market opportunities, changing the operating concept changed the mode of operations, develop new core competencies, and promote various aspects of their business to achieve new leaps and bounds. Only in this way will achieve a real sense from the construction of a healthy and competitive banking system objectives.
金融脱媒最早出现在我国,应该要追溯到大约十几年前。直到最近几年,其才成为理论界研究的热点之一。从本质上看,“金融脱媒”是脱离银行这个传统金融介质的资金融通现象与形式,同时也是资金脱离银行信用中介进行的间接融资直接化现象。虽然目前银行业仍然占绝对的主导地位和垄断地位,但随着我国资本市场的不断发展及金融创新技术的不断完善,银行的传统经营模式将会受到前所未有的挑战。然而,目前国内学者对金融脱媒对商业银行影响的研究主要集中于解释现象本身和定性分析,并未对证券市场和债券市场影响商业银行的因素进行具体的分析,更没有利用实证研究对金融脱媒进行定量分析使得不能更具体了解脱媒的影响效应并采取合适的策略积极应对这一形势。因此,也就无法给公司管理者和有关监管部门提供更有操作意义的政策和建议。
根据目前的统计资料可以看出：国外银行业的非利息收入约占其总收入比例高达36%以上,而中国银行业的非利息收入仅仅只占其收入总额不到20%。在国内银行业现有的资产结构中,信贷类资产一般占八成左右,直接导致息差收入在总收入结构中基本占据了八到九成的比例,使得国内商业银行的业务发展和利润增长在绝对程度上依赖于信贷资产规模的扩张,信贷资产规模如果出现缩水,银行将面临着极为重大的考验。因此,银行对于信贷业务的依赖性与依存度决定了“贷款与银行如鱼水不能分离一样”,而近几年随着我国信贷规模的相对紧缩,致使“金融脱媒”的现象愈演愈烈,银行业已将其视为巨大的挑战,引起业内广泛高度的关注。
银行业在中国金融业中处于主体地位,是国家重点扶持和监控的行业,因为它关系到了国家经济安全和社会稳定。因此,面对我国金融脱媒日益发展这一重要现实,就迫切需要进一步研究和评价其对商业银行影响程度,并对证券市场和债券市场影响商业银行的因素进行研究,本文试图基于金融中介的理论解释,通过现实的经验数据对理论分析加以验证,对影响商业银行实际的效应进行客观的评价和揭示,从而对金融脱媒背景下资本市场影响商业银行的具体效应,以及金融市场结构优化、利率市场化和资金配置优化等深层制度对于我国商业银行创新路径选择的作用,做出基于一种新的理论假说下的系统回答。
本文样本主要来源于《2002—-2011年中国金融统计年鉴》、《《2002—-2011年中国统计年鉴》及中国债券信息网。本文从中筛选出了2002年1月——2011年12月的存款余额、贷款余额、GDP、股票市场筹资金额、企业债发行规模、短期融资券及中期票据发行规模、资产支持证券发行规模等六个指标的季度数据。
本文将利用向量自回归模型(vector autoregression,VAR)及脉冲响应函数(impulse response function,IRF)分析我国证券市场以及企业债、短期融资券、资产证券化等方面的融资规模对我国商业银行传统业务即存、贷款的冲击程度。
本文由四大部分内容构成,第一部分是导论,即第1章,主要介绍本论文的研究背景、现实意义、选题依据、研究思路、研究方法、主要结论以及论文的创新与不足等内容。第二部分是研究的理论分析和现实依据,包括第2章、第3章、第4章,首先阐述了金融中介及相关作用,进而基于对以交易成本为核心的传统金融中介理论、以风险管理和参与成本为核心的现代金融中介理论阶段和当代金融功能阶段等金融中介理论的分析,引出了这些理论对金融脱媒理论的指导意义,并从国外和国内学者相关研究成果两个层面全面阐述了金融脱媒的原因和效应,界定并介绍了金融脱媒与其主要的表现方式,再次从政府管制、技术发展、企业和居民投融资环境的变化方面来说明金融脱媒产生的原因,接着从存贷款的流失、中间业务比重增长和银行经营难度增加这三个目前银行业面临的最紧迫压力角度分析金融脱媒的现象对商业银行所产生的影响,随后根据我国商业银行制度演进与现阶段金融环境的更迭详细研究了我国商业银行功能发展历程。首先,将我国商业银行制度演进分成了四个发展阶段,并对应分析了各阶段我国商业银行金融功能发展历程；其次,结合现阶段金融环境变化的实际情况、金融脱媒与间接融资直接化发展趋势,研究了我国商业银行现阶段核心功能的扩展与金融功能结构优化；最后,研究了我国商业银行在金融脱媒背景下不同于其他国家商业银行的表现——中小企业纷纷“金融脱媒”,难以获得银行的金融支持,本章将从制度的层面分析深层次原因,并提出了相应的解决措施。第三部分证券市场和债券市场影响商业银行因素的实证检验和分析,是论文的核心内容,包括第5章、第6章。通过实证分析,并利用向量白回归模型(VAR)、脉冲响应函数(IRF)实证分析结论表明：随着国内资本市场的蓬勃发展、多元化投资工具的逐渐普及运用及新的企业制度创新的逐渐推广,导致储蓄实现分流的渠道不断增多、速度不断加快、范围日趋扩大,越来越多的民间资金绕过金融中介机构直接进入流通领域,从而大大降低了以商业银行为主体的传统中介在金融体系中的重要性；第四部分主要是研究结论、政策建议,即第7章、第8章。籍此,利用我国金融统计年鉴的经验数据,借助向量自回归模型(VAR)、脉冲响应函数(IRF)等统计分析方法,对商业银行资产和负债规模与证券市场之间的关系,进行了系统地验证。研究成果的创新性主要可概括为：
第一,视角的创新。综观大量金融脱媒的研究文献,大部分是较为简单的介绍金融脱媒的起源及定性分析其对商业银行的影响,并未对证券市场和债券市场影响商业银行的因素进行具体的分析。本文首先将金融脱媒与商业银行功能创新有机结合在一起,并在此基础上利用实证方法对证券、债券的作用进行研究,试图以一个崭新的视角开辟探究金融脱媒背景下商业银行转型的思路。
第二,方法的创新。目前现有的研究文献基本是对金融脱媒进行定性分析,而较少对金融脱媒进行定量分析,尤其是缺乏脱媒对商业银行的效应进行实证研究。因此本文将利用向量自回归模型(VAR)、脉冲响应函数(IRF)及格兰杰因果关系检验等现代计量经济学实证研究方法对金融脱媒进行定量分析,以便能更好的掌握金融脱媒对商业银行的具体影响,并采取合适的策略应对这一形势。首先,将上市公司首次发行新股、企业债、中期票据及短期融资券等融资方式定量化,得到相应的解释变量；其次,结合GDP的增长规律,分析金融脱媒对我国商业银行最重要的业务即存款和贷款这两项指标的冲击。
第三,观点的创新。对金融脱媒下我国商业银行转型功能创新的研究,既是深化我国金融改革过程中对实践途径的一次探索,同样也是中国经济金融理论完善与发展的一次理论探讨,对于我国推进金融改革的深化与发展均具有重要的理论与现实意义。全文从当前金融脱媒现象入手,以商业银行功能创新为研究重心,通过分析商业银行功能创新的内在原因、形成机理,以及商业银行功能创新与金融市场结构优化等系列问题,试图从一个崭新的视角探求一条完善我国金融体系和深化金融市场的实践路径。
总之,“金融脱媒”是金融系统改革所面临的不可逆转的潮流与趋势,必须正确与客观的分析当前形势,积极应对主动调整。转变经营观念,完善与健全经营模式,化“危”为“机”,促进各类型业务均衡发展,培养出新的核心竞争力,实现银行业新的跨越式发展。唯有如此,才会从真正意义上实现构建一个健康和富有竞争力的银行体系的目标。同样,我国银行体系现存的诸多问题当前最需要的也正是“标本兼治”。
From the U.S. financial disintermediation. Narrowly speaking, at that time is defined as the maximum interest rates on term deposits under control conditions, when money market interest rates higher than the deposit-taking institutions will pay deposit interest rates, the deposit-taking institutions will deposit funds into money market instruments, a large number of phenomena. Broadly speaking, financial disintermediation refers to the deposit of funds not only direct the flow of high interest rates of assets, but also refers to the demand side of funds directly to bypass the financial intermediaries in the money market by issuing short-term debt instruments."Financial disintermediation" phenomenon first appeared in the late20th century the United States,"Q Ordinance" promulgated by making savings in the commercial banking system out of turn to the financial markets to seek higher investment income, so that commercial bank credit contraction profit decline in the operating commercial banks in difficulties. Japan, France, Italy, Germany, Britain and other Western developed countries have also followed a "financial disintermediation" phenomenon. China's "financial disintermediation," the emergence of the term is about10years ago, but became involved in the study of financial theory is the recent hot topics in2012. Financial disintermediation is a financial phenomenon, is "out of banks, the traditional "financial intermediation" financing and the form of financial intermediation, but also funds from the bank credit by the intermediary or the media directly to the phenomenon of indirect financing. For my country, although the banking sector is an absolute dominant position and monopoly position, but with China's continuous development of capital markets and financial innovation continue to improve the bank's traditional business model will be an unprecedented challenge. However, scholars of the current domestic financial disintermediation of commercial banks to study the impact of focus on interpretation and qualitative analysis of the phenomenon itself, and not the stock market and bond market factors that affect the commercial banks carry out specific analysis, but did not make use of empirical research on financial disintermediation can make quantitative analysis of more specific effects of free media and to take appropriate strategy to deal with this situation, therefore, can not Regulatory authorities and corporate managers to provide a more meaningful policy and operational recommendations. Statistics show that China's banking sector of its non-interest income accounted for only19percent of total income, while foreign banks in non-interest income ratio of more than35%. Existing assets in the banking sector structure, the credit assets in general accounts for about80%of income in total income margin of90%of the structure, therefore, loans and banks such as fish and water can not be separated, the so-called "financial disintermediation" phenomenon in the banking industry is seen as a serious challenge, once the industry's attention. In this mode, the commercial bank's business development and profit growth to a large extent dependent on the size of the expansion of credit assets, the size of the event of credit assets fell, the banks will face a major test. Banking in China's financial industry in a dominant position is to support and monitor the state's key industries, as it relates to the national economic security and social stability.
Therefore, in the face of growing disintermediation in China's financial development and the urgent need for further study and evaluation of its impact on the commercial banks of this important reality, and the stock market and bond market factors that affect the commercial banks to carry out research, based on the attempt to explain the theory of financial intermediation through the reality of empirical data to verify the theoretical analysis and practical effect of an objective evaluation and revealed, thus the context of financial disintermediation effects of the capital market of the specific effects of commercial banks, as well as structural optimization of the financial markets, interest rates and capital market-oriented configuration Deep system optimization in China's commercial banks to choose the path of the role of innovation to make a new theory based on a hypothesis to answer under the system. This article comes mainly from the sample,"2008Statistical Yearbook of China's financial","China Statistical Yearbook2008" and China's bond information networks. In this paper, selected from20001month-December2008the balance of deposits, loans, GDP, stock market, the amount of financing, corporate debt issuance, short-term financing bill and the size of the medium-term note issuance, asset-backed securities, such as issue size six indicators of quarterly data. This article will use the vector autoregression(VAR) and impulse response function(IRF) analysis of the stock market and corporate debt, short-term finance certificates, asset securitization financing, such as the size of our traditional business of commercial banks that depositors, the impact of the extent of the loan.
This article has four major elements, the first part of the Introduction, namely, Chapter1, this paper introduces the research background, and practical significance, based on topics, research ideas, research methods, the main conclusions, as well as innovation and the lack of paper, etc.. The second part is the research based on theoretical analysis and practical, including Chapter2, Chapter3, Chapter4, first of all, on the role of financial intermediation and related, and based on transaction costs as the core of the traditional theory of financial intermediation, risk management and participation costs as the core of the modern theory of financial intermediation and financial functions of the contemporary stage of the theory of financial intermediation, such as analysis, the theory leads to disintermediation of the financial guidance of the theory of meaning, and scholars from abroad and domestic research results related to two aspects of a comprehensive financial disintermediation on the causes and effects, as defined and described the disintermediation of the financial performance of its main means, and then from government control, technology development, investment and financing businesses and residents of the changes in the environment to illustrate the financial disintermediation causes then the loss of deposits and loans, the proportion of intermediary business growth and increase the difficulty of the three banks point of view of financial disintermediation of commercial banks and thus the basis of the evolution of China's commercial banking system and financial environment changes at this stage a detailed study of China's commercial banks function the course of development. First of all, China's commercial banking system in accordance with the evolution of the four stages of development, corresponding to an analysis of China's commercial banking and financial functions of the development process; Secondly, the combination of changes in financial conditions at this stage, financial disintermediation direct and indirect financing of the development trend of study at this stage China's commercial banks to expand the core function of structural optimization and financial functions; Finally, the study of China's commercial banks in the context of financial disintermediation in other countries is different from the performance of commercial banks-small and medium enterprises have "financial disintermediation," access to bank financial support from the system level, this chapter analyzes the deep-seated reasons, and the corresponding solution.; The third part of the stock market and bond market factors affect the commercial banks and analysis of empirical testing is the core content of papers, including the Chapter5, Chapter6. Through empirical analysis and the use of vector autoregression model (VAR), impulse response function (IRF) concluded that the empirical analysis:With the development of capital markets and the growing diversification of investment instruments in general, continue to accelerate the diversion of savings, more capital flows bypassing financial intermediaries to enter the field of finance capital directly, thereby reducing the commercial banks as the mainstay of traditional intermediaries in the financial system, the importance of; fourth part is the main conclusion of the study, policy recommendations, that is, Chapter7, Chapter8. Take, using the Statistical Yearbook of China's financial experience data using vector autoregressive model (VAR), impulse response function (IRF), such as statistical analysis methods, assets and liabilities of commercial banks in the securities market size and the relationship between a system to verify. Innovative research can be summarized mainly as follows:
Firstly, the perspective of innovation. Looking at the large number of financial disintermediation of the research literature, most of them relatively simple to introduce the origin of financial disintermediation and its impact on commercial banks to carry out a qualitative analysis of the impact, but not the stock market and bond market factors that affect the commercial banks carry out specific analysis. This article first financial disintermediation of commercial banks and functional innovation in combination with organic and in the use of empirical methods based on the securities, bonds, the role of research, trying to open up a new perspective into the context of financial disintermediation of commercial banks in transition ideas. Secondly, the methods of innovation. In the current research literature available on the basic analysis of financial disintermediation, and less financial disintermediation of quantitative analysis, especially in disintermediation of commercial banks to carry out empirical studies of the effect. Therefore, this article will use the vector autoregressive model (VAR), impulse response function (IRF) pass Granger causality test and other modern methods of econometric empirical studies of financial disintermediation quantitative analysis in order to better grasp the financial disintermediation of the specific impact of the commercial banks and to take appropriate strategies to deal with this situation. First of all, the will for the first time the issue of new shares, issue new shares of listed companies, corporate debt, medium-term notes and short-term financing coupons quantitative mode of financing has been the interpretation of the corresponding variable; Secondly, the combination of GDP growth in the law, analysis of our financial disintermediation commercial bank that is the most important business deposits and loans of the impact of these two indicators. Thirdly, the perspective of innovation. Of financial disintermediation of commercial banks under the transition functions of our innovative research, the practice of financial deepening is the way to my research, but also enrich and develop China's economic and financial theory an extension of China's financial deepening and financial development, are of great theoretical and practical significance. This article from the current financial disintermediation phenomenon starting to commercial banks to function as a focus on innovation, commercial banks through the analysis of functional innovation in the inherent causes of the formation mechanism, and function of commercial banks in the financial market innovation and range of issues such as structural optimization, an attempt from a new a perfect perspective to explore China's financial system and deepen the financial markets, the practice of the path.
All in all, Financial disintermediation in the background, the commercial banks must conform to the trend of the times, a correct understanding of the current situation, objective analysis, face-to-face, take the initiative to adapt to this trend, take full advantage of financial disintermediation brought about by market opportunities, changing the operating concept changed the mode of operations, develop new core competencies, and promote various aspects of their business to achieve new leaps and bounds. Only in this way will achieve a real sense from the construction of a healthy and competitive banking system objectives.
引文
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