我国化肥产业发展特征及可持续性研究
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摘要
化肥是支持粮食生产的重要生产资料。但由于我国化肥生产与施用消耗大量的自然资源和产生巨大的环境影响而可持续性差。本文运用国家统计数据、文献资料和工业协会数据分析了我国建国以来氮肥、磷肥和钾肥的产业发展特征,并结合情景分析提出了我国化肥可持续发展方向。在此研究基础上分析提出了不同化肥品种的发展建议。主要结论如下：
(1)我国氮肥产量从1949年的6000吨N增加到2013年的5287万吨N,不仅实现了自给,而且成为第一出口大国。生产规模也不断扩大,大型装置明显增加。产业布局向能源产地转移,尿素成为主导产品。氮肥消费量从1961年53万吨N增加到2012年的4105万吨N。近些年工业消费量继续快速增长,而农业消费量基本维持在3300万吨N左右。
(2)由于技术进步,单位合成氨能耗从2714kg标煤/t NH3下降到1561k标煤/tNH3,温室气体排放从6.3t CO2-eq/tNH3下降到3.7tCO2-eq/tNH3;由于尿素比重的增加,氮肥生产到施用单位氮的能耗和农田损失增加,但温室气体排放减少。由于氮肥产量与消费量的增加,氮肥生产与消费的总能耗、总温室气体排放和总损失都增加。如果能提高技术水平、优化产品结构、禁止氮肥出口和优化氮肥农业消费量(生产量与消费量相同),能显著降低氮肥生产到施用的能耗、温室气体排放和氮损失,分别降低40.9%、29.8%和63.4%(国内水平)。
(3)我国磷肥产量从1961年的12万吨P205增加到2013年的1653万吨P205,不仅实现自给,而且成为主要的出口大国。磷肥生产主要集中在磷矿产地,企业规模扩大,生产集中度提高,高浓度磷肥成为主要产品。磷肥消费量从1961年的12万吨P205增加到2012年的1176万吨P205,近些年消费基本稳定在1100万吨P205。
(4)由于磷矿生产量的快速增加和高浓度磷肥的生产导致磷矿开采与加工回收率降低,磷矿产量迅速增加,从13万吨P205增加到3196万吨P2O5。未来由于人口增加、社会经济发展和饮食结构的变化,磷矿需求量将进一步增加,从2010年的3196万吨P2O5增加到2030年的3556万吨P205,2100年降至2462万吨P205。保持2100年需求量,探明的磷矿储量将在2118年消耗完。然而,如果能在开采、加工、磷肥需求与粪便和废水磷回收环节采取措施,磷矿的需求将会显著下降,中国磷矿资源可以利用到2593年。采取措施还能显著的降低磷素向环境中的排放量。
(5)我国钾肥产量从1981年的2万吨K2O增加到2013年的472万吨K20。产量增加的同时,产品种类多样化。钾肥生产主要集中在青海和新疆钾矿资源地。由于受到资源短缺的制约,钾肥产量依然不能满足国内消费,但是进口量减少,进口依存度下降,目前保持在50%。近年来,我国工农业钾肥消费量约600万吨K2O,趋于稳定。
(6)从目前的化肥产业总体分析发现：氮磷肥产能过剩显现,产品高浓度单一化,资源消耗与环境影响增大。与先进水平及我国可持续发展目标相比,提升工业生产和农业施用效率仍是主要目标,工业环节应化解过剩产能,通过基础肥料产业向资源产地集中以及生产装置大型化进一步提高资源效率；进一步优化产品结构,发展适合土壤、作物和现代农业生产方式的产品,并配套科学施用方法,进一步提升肥料利用效率。钾肥由于资源紧缺,应该保持国内钾肥现有产量,这样利于钾肥进口谈判。同时,应建设海外钾肥项目打破国际垄断和开发利用丰富的难溶性钾资源。
Chemical fertilizer is an important material to support grain production. However, the sustainability of China's fertilizer industry is poor due to the higher resource consumption and higher environmental costs during the process of fertilizer production and consumption. This thesis analyzes the China's industrial development characteristics of the nitrogen, phosphorus and potash fertilizer since1949by using data from National Bureau of Statistics, fertilizer industry association, and literature. Meanwhile, this thesis presents the direction and measures of sustainable development of China's fertilizer industry based on scenario analysis. Finally, this thesis gives development proposals of different fertilizer products. The principal conclusions as follows:
(1) The total production of nitrogen fertilizer (N nutrient) in China increased from6000tons in1949to52.98MT in2013, which not only achieved the self-sufficiency, but also became the largest exporter of nitrogen fertilizers in the world. Meanwhile, with the scale of production expanded, the large equipment increased significantly. Furthermore, the industrial layout transferred to producing areas of energy resources, and urea became the most important product. The consumption of N-fertilizers has been grown from0.53MT to41.1MT over the period between1961and2012. In recent years, the most of N-fertilizers were consumed by industrial sectors instead of agricultural sectors, and the total consumption of N-fertilizer by agricultural sectors remained constant at33MT.
(2)The Energy consumption by per unit ammonia production decreased from2714kg tce/t NH3in1981tol561kg tce/t NH3in2012, and GHG emission decreased from6.3t CO2-eq/1NH3to3.7t CO2-eq/t NH3thanks to adoption of advanced technologies in China; Meanwhile, the energy consumption and N loss in the process of production and application of N-fertilizers increased due to the increase in the proportion of urea production, but the GHG emission dcreased. Meanwhile, the total energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and total reactive nitrogen losses of nitrogen fertilizer in the process of production and consumption increased significantly due to the increased nitrogen fertilizer production and consumption. However, total energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and total reactive nitrogen losses can be decreased by40.9%,29.8%and63.4%respectively if some measures would be implemented, such as the improving technical level, optimizing product structure, prohibiting the export of nitrogen fertilizer, and optimizing nitrogen fertilizer consumption in agriculture.
(3) The production of phosphate fertilizers increased from122,000tonnes in1961to16.53MT P2O5in2012, which not only achieved self-sufficiency, but also became the main exporter in the world. Phosphate fertilizer producers are mainly concentrated in provinces where are rich in phosphate rocks, the scale of production has been expanded, the degree of production concentration increased, and the high-concentration phosphate fertilizers became the main product. Moreover, the consumption of phosphate fertilizers increased from122,000tonnes P2O5in1961to11.76MT P2O5in2012. Currently, the consumption is stabilizing at11MT.
(4) Due to the rapid increase of phosphate production and the low level of recovery in process of phosphate rock's mining and processing, the production of phosphate rock increased from130000tonnes P2O5to31.96MT P2O5. In future, the Phosphorus demand will increase from31.96MT P2O5in2010to35.56MT P2O5, and will decrease to24.62MT P205in2100because of population increase, the social and economic development and change in dietary structure. Furthermore, the current reserves of phosphate rock will be depleted in2118according to the demand in2100. However, the phosphate rock reserves will last to year of2593, if certain measures can be adopted in the process of mining, processing, application of phosphate rock, and enhanced the utilization and recovery of phosphorus from the wastewater
(5) Potash production increased from36,000tonnes K2O in1990to4.72MT K2O in2013. Meanwhile, with the increase of the production, the structure of products became variety. Potash production mainly concentrated in producing areas of potassium resource, like Qinghai and Xinxiang province. Due to the shortage of resources, potash production still cannot meet domestic demand,50%of the total consumption need to be imported from other countries at present. In recent years, the consumption of K fertilizers is stabilizing at6MT K2O.
(6) The problems, such as the overcapacity of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers, simplified product structure, and great impacts on resource consumption and ecological environment. Therefore, improving the industrial production and agricultural efficiency is still the main target for sustainable development of fertilizer industry. Specific measures like digesting excess capacity in industrial chain, improving the resource efficiency by shifting fertilizer producers to the origin of resources and using advanced equipment; Meanwhile, improving the fertilizer utilization efficiency by optimizing the product structure, developing the products according the soil quality, and supporting the scientific method of fertilizer application. Moreover, because of the scarcity of resources, the production of potash fertilizer should maintain at current level. At the same time, government should encourage overseas potash project in order to break the international monopoly and utilization of the plentiful insoluble potassium resource.
(1)我国氮肥产量从1949年的6000吨N增加到2013年的5287万吨N,不仅实现了自给,而且成为第一出口大国。生产规模也不断扩大,大型装置明显增加。产业布局向能源产地转移,尿素成为主导产品。氮肥消费量从1961年53万吨N增加到2012年的4105万吨N。近些年工业消费量继续快速增长,而农业消费量基本维持在3300万吨N左右。
(2)由于技术进步,单位合成氨能耗从2714kg标煤/t NH3下降到1561k标煤/tNH3,温室气体排放从6.3t CO2-eq/tNH3下降到3.7tCO2-eq/tNH3;由于尿素比重的增加,氮肥生产到施用单位氮的能耗和农田损失增加,但温室气体排放减少。由于氮肥产量与消费量的增加,氮肥生产与消费的总能耗、总温室气体排放和总损失都增加。如果能提高技术水平、优化产品结构、禁止氮肥出口和优化氮肥农业消费量(生产量与消费量相同),能显著降低氮肥生产到施用的能耗、温室气体排放和氮损失,分别降低40.9%、29.8%和63.4%(国内水平)。
(3)我国磷肥产量从1961年的12万吨P205增加到2013年的1653万吨P205,不仅实现自给,而且成为主要的出口大国。磷肥生产主要集中在磷矿产地,企业规模扩大,生产集中度提高,高浓度磷肥成为主要产品。磷肥消费量从1961年的12万吨P205增加到2012年的1176万吨P205,近些年消费基本稳定在1100万吨P205。
(4)由于磷矿生产量的快速增加和高浓度磷肥的生产导致磷矿开采与加工回收率降低,磷矿产量迅速增加,从13万吨P205增加到3196万吨P2O5。未来由于人口增加、社会经济发展和饮食结构的变化,磷矿需求量将进一步增加,从2010年的3196万吨P2O5增加到2030年的3556万吨P205,2100年降至2462万吨P205。保持2100年需求量,探明的磷矿储量将在2118年消耗完。然而,如果能在开采、加工、磷肥需求与粪便和废水磷回收环节采取措施,磷矿的需求将会显著下降,中国磷矿资源可以利用到2593年。采取措施还能显著的降低磷素向环境中的排放量。
(5)我国钾肥产量从1981年的2万吨K2O增加到2013年的472万吨K20。产量增加的同时,产品种类多样化。钾肥生产主要集中在青海和新疆钾矿资源地。由于受到资源短缺的制约,钾肥产量依然不能满足国内消费,但是进口量减少,进口依存度下降,目前保持在50%。近年来,我国工农业钾肥消费量约600万吨K2O,趋于稳定。
(6)从目前的化肥产业总体分析发现：氮磷肥产能过剩显现,产品高浓度单一化,资源消耗与环境影响增大。与先进水平及我国可持续发展目标相比,提升工业生产和农业施用效率仍是主要目标,工业环节应化解过剩产能,通过基础肥料产业向资源产地集中以及生产装置大型化进一步提高资源效率；进一步优化产品结构,发展适合土壤、作物和现代农业生产方式的产品,并配套科学施用方法,进一步提升肥料利用效率。钾肥由于资源紧缺,应该保持国内钾肥现有产量,这样利于钾肥进口谈判。同时,应建设海外钾肥项目打破国际垄断和开发利用丰富的难溶性钾资源。
Chemical fertilizer is an important material to support grain production. However, the sustainability of China's fertilizer industry is poor due to the higher resource consumption and higher environmental costs during the process of fertilizer production and consumption. This thesis analyzes the China's industrial development characteristics of the nitrogen, phosphorus and potash fertilizer since1949by using data from National Bureau of Statistics, fertilizer industry association, and literature. Meanwhile, this thesis presents the direction and measures of sustainable development of China's fertilizer industry based on scenario analysis. Finally, this thesis gives development proposals of different fertilizer products. The principal conclusions as follows:
(1) The total production of nitrogen fertilizer (N nutrient) in China increased from6000tons in1949to52.98MT in2013, which not only achieved the self-sufficiency, but also became the largest exporter of nitrogen fertilizers in the world. Meanwhile, with the scale of production expanded, the large equipment increased significantly. Furthermore, the industrial layout transferred to producing areas of energy resources, and urea became the most important product. The consumption of N-fertilizers has been grown from0.53MT to41.1MT over the period between1961and2012. In recent years, the most of N-fertilizers were consumed by industrial sectors instead of agricultural sectors, and the total consumption of N-fertilizer by agricultural sectors remained constant at33MT.
(2)The Energy consumption by per unit ammonia production decreased from2714kg tce/t NH3in1981tol561kg tce/t NH3in2012, and GHG emission decreased from6.3t CO2-eq/1NH3to3.7t CO2-eq/t NH3thanks to adoption of advanced technologies in China; Meanwhile, the energy consumption and N loss in the process of production and application of N-fertilizers increased due to the increase in the proportion of urea production, but the GHG emission dcreased. Meanwhile, the total energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and total reactive nitrogen losses of nitrogen fertilizer in the process of production and consumption increased significantly due to the increased nitrogen fertilizer production and consumption. However, total energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and total reactive nitrogen losses can be decreased by40.9%,29.8%and63.4%respectively if some measures would be implemented, such as the improving technical level, optimizing product structure, prohibiting the export of nitrogen fertilizer, and optimizing nitrogen fertilizer consumption in agriculture.
(3) The production of phosphate fertilizers increased from122,000tonnes in1961to16.53MT P2O5in2012, which not only achieved self-sufficiency, but also became the main exporter in the world. Phosphate fertilizer producers are mainly concentrated in provinces where are rich in phosphate rocks, the scale of production has been expanded, the degree of production concentration increased, and the high-concentration phosphate fertilizers became the main product. Moreover, the consumption of phosphate fertilizers increased from122,000tonnes P2O5in1961to11.76MT P2O5in2012. Currently, the consumption is stabilizing at11MT.
(4) Due to the rapid increase of phosphate production and the low level of recovery in process of phosphate rock's mining and processing, the production of phosphate rock increased from130000tonnes P2O5to31.96MT P2O5. In future, the Phosphorus demand will increase from31.96MT P2O5in2010to35.56MT P2O5, and will decrease to24.62MT P205in2100because of population increase, the social and economic development and change in dietary structure. Furthermore, the current reserves of phosphate rock will be depleted in2118according to the demand in2100. However, the phosphate rock reserves will last to year of2593, if certain measures can be adopted in the process of mining, processing, application of phosphate rock, and enhanced the utilization and recovery of phosphorus from the wastewater
(5) Potash production increased from36,000tonnes K2O in1990to4.72MT K2O in2013. Meanwhile, with the increase of the production, the structure of products became variety. Potash production mainly concentrated in producing areas of potassium resource, like Qinghai and Xinxiang province. Due to the shortage of resources, potash production still cannot meet domestic demand,50%of the total consumption need to be imported from other countries at present. In recent years, the consumption of K fertilizers is stabilizing at6MT K2O.
(6) The problems, such as the overcapacity of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers, simplified product structure, and great impacts on resource consumption and ecological environment. Therefore, improving the industrial production and agricultural efficiency is still the main target for sustainable development of fertilizer industry. Specific measures like digesting excess capacity in industrial chain, improving the resource efficiency by shifting fertilizer producers to the origin of resources and using advanced equipment; Meanwhile, improving the fertilizer utilization efficiency by optimizing the product structure, developing the products according the soil quality, and supporting the scientific method of fertilizer application. Moreover, because of the scarcity of resources, the production of potash fertilizer should maintain at current level. At the same time, government should encourage overseas potash project in order to break the international monopoly and utilization of the plentiful insoluble potassium resource.
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