航运企业船舶租赁融资优化决策及风险控制研究
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摘要
航运企业属于资金密集行业,无论造船、买船还是租赁船舶都需巨额资金投入。与工程项目、高科技产业相比,船舶融资项目的投资回收期长,风险性更高,所需要协调的环节更多。尤其是在当今的航运市场,运价跌宕起伏,存在着许多不可控制的因素。航运企业一旦出现战略性的经营失误,就可能面临巨额损失,甚至导致企业破产。因此,如何优化船舶融资决策,预防与规避船舶融资项目的风险对航运企业来说无疑是关系到企业的生死存亡的头等大事。
开展科学决策和风险管控是航运企业船舶融资业务的核心内容。只有运用科学的决策方法,有效识别风险类别及其产生原因,并评估其兑现时的影响,才能有效地管理风险。由于目前我国租赁融资业务发展历史不长,船舶租赁融资更是刚刚开始,与我国实际相结合的船舶租赁融资的相关理论和技术尤其欠缺,特别是航运企业的船舶租赁融资项目的风险评价体系还不健全,相关的控制措施研究方面更有待加强。正是在这样的背景下,本文试图对航运企业船舶租赁融资的理论、技术、实际运用以及风险评估与控制进行深入、系统地研究。该研究将有助于推动我国航运企业加强对船舶租赁融资项目决策的科学性及风险管理的有效性,使租赁融资真正成为我国航运企业融资的一种重要途径,从而促进我国航运企业健康、快速发展。
本文重点研究船舶租赁融资优化决策问题。通过科学界定船舶租赁融资概念的内涵,从系统性风险和非系统性风险两个方面,剖析了船舶融资租赁项目风险的成因和特点；在深入研究船舶租赁融资优化决策理论的基础上,提出了航运企业完整的船舶租赁优化决策框架,构建了船舶租赁融资的优化决策模型,并从博弈论视角探讨了航运企业在租船决策的行动策略；在船舶租赁融资风险因素的评判、汇集的基础上,提出了科学客观的评价指标体系,运用现代非线性数学方法对航运企业船舶融资租赁项目的风险状态进行评价,为航运企业船舶租赁融资提供决策依据。
本文主要研究结论如下：
(1)船舶租赁融资作为国内航运企业船舶融资的一条重要渠道,具有其独特的优势,但由于投入资金量巨大、租赁期长、外部环境不确定因素多,使得项目本身存有较高的风险。根据航运企业对船舶租赁融资项目风险的可控制程度,本文界定船舶租赁融资项目的系统风险主要包括：航运市场风险、宏观政策风险、宏观经济环境风险；非系统性风险主要包括：公司治理风险、公司管理风险、公司资信风险、公司财务能力风险、项目因素风险。
(2)航运企业获取标的船舶使用权的过程是一个风险型决策过程,该决策系统由六个子决策问题构成,这些决策问题逐层递进,共同决定和影响着航运企业的风险收益状况,在此过程中,航运企业进行策略性行动至关重要。
(3)基于对航运企业船舶租赁融资项目的风险研究,本文构建了船舶租赁融资项目的风险评估指标体系。该风险指标评价体系准则层指标有八个,主要是该项目的系统风险与非系统风险。指标层为二十五个影响准则层的指标。
(4)本文研究结果表明,项目因素风险、公司财务能力风险与公司资信风险三个一级指标的权重系数在所有一级指标中列前三位,意味着这三个风险指标在整个风险指标体系中占有非常重要的位置,在航运企业的风险管理中尤其要重视。
Maritime enterprises are capital-intensive, whether to build, buy or charter a ship, financially require huge capital investment. Compared with construction projects or high-tech industry, the ship financial leasing project has a longer payback period with higher risk and more aspects needed to be coordinated. Especially in today's shipping market, with tariffs up and down, there are many uncontrollable factors. Once the strategic operations went wrong, maritime enterprises may be faced with huge losses or even led to bankruptcy. Therefore, how to optimize the ship financing decision-making to prevent and avoid the risk of ship financing projects is undoubtedly related to the survival of the enterprise, which is a top priority for maritime enterprises.
Carrying out scientific decision-making and risk management and control are the core contents of the maritime enterprises'ship financing business. Only by adopting scientific decision-making, effectively identifying categories of risks and its causes, and assessing the impact of its occurrence, can risks be effectively managed. In China, financial leasing does not have a long history, let alone ship financial leasing. There is also a lack of concerning theories and technologies combined with actual situation in China, especially that ship financial leasing project risk evaluation system is not perfect, researches on controlling measures need to be strengthened. It is in this context, this paper attempted to study in-depth and systematically on maritime enterprises'ship leasing financing theory, technology, practical application, and risk assessment. The study will help promote China's maritime enterprises to strengthen the effectiveness of scientific decision-making and risk management, and make financial leasing project truly become an important way for the financing of maritime enterprises, thereby contributing to the healthy and fast development of maritime enterprise.
This paper mainly studied the optimization decision problem on ship leasing financing. Through defining the concept of ship leasing financing scientifically, this paper deeply analyzed the causes and characteristics of ship leasing financing project risks from two aspects——the systematic risks and the unsystematic risks. Based on the ship leasing financing optimization decision theory, a full set of maritime enterprises' ship leasing financing optimization decision framework was proposed, and a model of it was constructed. Then from the angle of Game Theory, the paper discussed the strategies about charter decisions. On the basis of the factors influencing the risks of ship leasing financing, put forward a scientific and objective evaluation index system. Then using modern nonlinear mathematical method, evaluated the risks of maritime enterprises'ship leasing financing, which would provide decision basis for ship leasing financing.
The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:
(1)As an important way of financing for domestic maritime enterprises, ship financial leasing has its unique advantages. However, with huge amount of investment, long leasing period and the uncertainty of various external environments, ship financial leasing project will have a higher risk. According to the control degree of the risk factors in ship financial leasing project, this paper defined systematic risk and non-systematic risk of ship financial leasing project. The systematic risks included the risk of shipping market, the risk of macroeconomic policy and the risk of macroeconomic environment. The non-systematic risks included the risk of corporate governance, the risk of management, the credit risk of the company, the risk of company's financial ability and the risk of project.
(2) The process of maritime enterprises to obtain the target ship's right of use is als o a process of risk decision. The decision system consists of six sub-decision problems, these decisions are progressive, and influence the shipping enterprise risk-benefit situati on jointly. In this session, strategic action of maritime enterprises is essential.
(3) Based on studies on risk of ship financial leasing of maritime enterprises, this paper established a risk assessment indicators system for ship financial leasing projects. The system has eight standard layer indicators, which mainly indicates the project's system risk and non-system risk. There are twenty five indexes that affect the standard layer.
(4) The results indicated that project risks, financial risks and enterprise credit risks weighted the top three among all the first level indicators, which meant that the three indicators were very important in the risk index system, especially in the risk management of maritime enterprises.
开展科学决策和风险管控是航运企业船舶融资业务的核心内容。只有运用科学的决策方法,有效识别风险类别及其产生原因,并评估其兑现时的影响,才能有效地管理风险。由于目前我国租赁融资业务发展历史不长,船舶租赁融资更是刚刚开始,与我国实际相结合的船舶租赁融资的相关理论和技术尤其欠缺,特别是航运企业的船舶租赁融资项目的风险评价体系还不健全,相关的控制措施研究方面更有待加强。正是在这样的背景下,本文试图对航运企业船舶租赁融资的理论、技术、实际运用以及风险评估与控制进行深入、系统地研究。该研究将有助于推动我国航运企业加强对船舶租赁融资项目决策的科学性及风险管理的有效性,使租赁融资真正成为我国航运企业融资的一种重要途径,从而促进我国航运企业健康、快速发展。
本文重点研究船舶租赁融资优化决策问题。通过科学界定船舶租赁融资概念的内涵,从系统性风险和非系统性风险两个方面,剖析了船舶融资租赁项目风险的成因和特点；在深入研究船舶租赁融资优化决策理论的基础上,提出了航运企业完整的船舶租赁优化决策框架,构建了船舶租赁融资的优化决策模型,并从博弈论视角探讨了航运企业在租船决策的行动策略；在船舶租赁融资风险因素的评判、汇集的基础上,提出了科学客观的评价指标体系,运用现代非线性数学方法对航运企业船舶融资租赁项目的风险状态进行评价,为航运企业船舶租赁融资提供决策依据。
本文主要研究结论如下：
(1)船舶租赁融资作为国内航运企业船舶融资的一条重要渠道,具有其独特的优势,但由于投入资金量巨大、租赁期长、外部环境不确定因素多,使得项目本身存有较高的风险。根据航运企业对船舶租赁融资项目风险的可控制程度,本文界定船舶租赁融资项目的系统风险主要包括：航运市场风险、宏观政策风险、宏观经济环境风险；非系统性风险主要包括：公司治理风险、公司管理风险、公司资信风险、公司财务能力风险、项目因素风险。
(2)航运企业获取标的船舶使用权的过程是一个风险型决策过程,该决策系统由六个子决策问题构成,这些决策问题逐层递进,共同决定和影响着航运企业的风险收益状况,在此过程中,航运企业进行策略性行动至关重要。
(3)基于对航运企业船舶租赁融资项目的风险研究,本文构建了船舶租赁融资项目的风险评估指标体系。该风险指标评价体系准则层指标有八个,主要是该项目的系统风险与非系统风险。指标层为二十五个影响准则层的指标。
(4)本文研究结果表明,项目因素风险、公司财务能力风险与公司资信风险三个一级指标的权重系数在所有一级指标中列前三位,意味着这三个风险指标在整个风险指标体系中占有非常重要的位置,在航运企业的风险管理中尤其要重视。
Maritime enterprises are capital-intensive, whether to build, buy or charter a ship, financially require huge capital investment. Compared with construction projects or high-tech industry, the ship financial leasing project has a longer payback period with higher risk and more aspects needed to be coordinated. Especially in today's shipping market, with tariffs up and down, there are many uncontrollable factors. Once the strategic operations went wrong, maritime enterprises may be faced with huge losses or even led to bankruptcy. Therefore, how to optimize the ship financing decision-making to prevent and avoid the risk of ship financing projects is undoubtedly related to the survival of the enterprise, which is a top priority for maritime enterprises.
Carrying out scientific decision-making and risk management and control are the core contents of the maritime enterprises'ship financing business. Only by adopting scientific decision-making, effectively identifying categories of risks and its causes, and assessing the impact of its occurrence, can risks be effectively managed. In China, financial leasing does not have a long history, let alone ship financial leasing. There is also a lack of concerning theories and technologies combined with actual situation in China, especially that ship financial leasing project risk evaluation system is not perfect, researches on controlling measures need to be strengthened. It is in this context, this paper attempted to study in-depth and systematically on maritime enterprises'ship leasing financing theory, technology, practical application, and risk assessment. The study will help promote China's maritime enterprises to strengthen the effectiveness of scientific decision-making and risk management, and make financial leasing project truly become an important way for the financing of maritime enterprises, thereby contributing to the healthy and fast development of maritime enterprise.
This paper mainly studied the optimization decision problem on ship leasing financing. Through defining the concept of ship leasing financing scientifically, this paper deeply analyzed the causes and characteristics of ship leasing financing project risks from two aspects——the systematic risks and the unsystematic risks. Based on the ship leasing financing optimization decision theory, a full set of maritime enterprises' ship leasing financing optimization decision framework was proposed, and a model of it was constructed. Then from the angle of Game Theory, the paper discussed the strategies about charter decisions. On the basis of the factors influencing the risks of ship leasing financing, put forward a scientific and objective evaluation index system. Then using modern nonlinear mathematical method, evaluated the risks of maritime enterprises'ship leasing financing, which would provide decision basis for ship leasing financing.
The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:
(1)As an important way of financing for domestic maritime enterprises, ship financial leasing has its unique advantages. However, with huge amount of investment, long leasing period and the uncertainty of various external environments, ship financial leasing project will have a higher risk. According to the control degree of the risk factors in ship financial leasing project, this paper defined systematic risk and non-systematic risk of ship financial leasing project. The systematic risks included the risk of shipping market, the risk of macroeconomic policy and the risk of macroeconomic environment. The non-systematic risks included the risk of corporate governance, the risk of management, the credit risk of the company, the risk of company's financial ability and the risk of project.
(2) The process of maritime enterprises to obtain the target ship's right of use is als o a process of risk decision. The decision system consists of six sub-decision problems, these decisions are progressive, and influence the shipping enterprise risk-benefit situati on jointly. In this session, strategic action of maritime enterprises is essential.
(3) Based on studies on risk of ship financial leasing of maritime enterprises, this paper established a risk assessment indicators system for ship financial leasing projects. The system has eight standard layer indicators, which mainly indicates the project's system risk and non-system risk. There are twenty five indexes that affect the standard layer.
(4) The results indicated that project risks, financial risks and enterprise credit risks weighted the top three among all the first level indicators, which meant that the three indicators were very important in the risk index system, especially in the risk management of maritime enterprises.
引文
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