上市公司现金流量与收益关系的实证研究
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摘要
一般来说，权责发生制下的报表收益(净利润)能比现金流量更好地反映企业的经营业绩。然而现金流量指标在收付实现制基础上产生，且需由第三方机构——银行(信用度较大)提供原始凭证和相关数据，因此普遍认为现金流量指标的真实值更高。这样，就构成了分析企业业绩时的一对矛盾数据：一方是可以很好地反映企业经营业绩，却易于被操纵的报表收益指标(净利润)；另一方是虽不易被操纵，但反映上市公司经营业绩能力相对较弱的现金流量指标。因而，系统而准确的比较、评价报表收益指标和现金流量指标之间的关系，以及二者各自与股票价格之间的关系对实现不同主体的利益，规范我国证券市场，完善上市公司的管理有重大意义。
本文主要采用了理论和实证研究相结合的方法，首先根据研究对象的特性即现金流量的特性对其进行理论上的定性研究，在此基础上进一步采用实证研究的方法来验证所要证明的假设。同时，结合中国证券市场的实际情况针对st股票和非st股票进行样本的采集，按照理论、应用最后到实证研究的进程展开研究。
在实证研究时本文从我国股市A股中选取92家st股票、90家非st股票，运用上述的调整的自由现金流量模型，对与股票价格、每股报表收益和每股自由现金流量相关的四个假设进行验证。
通过对四个假设的实证研究，最后在结论部分总结得出以下结论：每股自由现金流量的波动性要大于每股报表收益的波动性；股票价格与每股报表收益之间的相关性强于股票价格与每股自由现金流量的相关性，每股报表收益与每股自由现金流量的之间的相关性很弱；每股报表收益对股票价格的解释能力强于每股自由现金流量对股票价格的解释能力，每股报表收益与每股自由现金流量联合无法提高每股报表收益对股票价格的解释能力；每股报表收益与每股自由现金流量之间有因果关系。上述结论说明四个假设均与结论相一致。同时，我们也指出在研究工作中的一些不足以及对今后研究工作的展望。
A pair of contradictions datum when report form income and cash flow form enterprise' s achievement of analyzing: One party can reflect enterprise business performance well, but easy report form income index that handle (net profit); another party although difficult to handle, reflect listed company business performance ability relatively weaker cash flow index. Therefore, the relation between accurate appraisal report form income index and cash flow index has great significance to the security market of our country of the norm and the management of perfecting the listed company.
This text has adopted the method that the theory combines with positive research mainly, It is that the characteristic of the cash flow determines the nature to study to its one that goes on in theory according to the characteristic of the research object at first, The method of adopting the positive research further on the basis of this verifies the assumptions that are proved. Besides, the reality of combining China' s securities market carries on the gathering of the sample to st's stock, According to the theory, the process used to the positive research at last launches studying.
Through the positive research to four assumptions, we summarize and draw following conclusions in the conclusion part at last: The fluctuations of each whiff of own cash flow should be greater than the fluctuation of the income of report form per share, Suppose 1 to totally establish. Per share net assets unite each manage unable to raise the income explanation ability to the stock price of report form per share cash flow, The income explanation ability strong explanation ability to the stock price in each whiff of free cash flow to the stock price of report form per share. The dependence between stock price and income of report form per share is strong in the dependence of the stock price and each whiff of free cash flow; per share report form have causality with each a whiff of free cash flows by income. Above-mentioned conclusions prove that four assumptions are compatible with conclusion.
本文主要采用了理论和实证研究相结合的方法，首先根据研究对象的特性即现金流量的特性对其进行理论上的定性研究，在此基础上进一步采用实证研究的方法来验证所要证明的假设。同时，结合中国证券市场的实际情况针对st股票和非st股票进行样本的采集，按照理论、应用最后到实证研究的进程展开研究。
在实证研究时本文从我国股市A股中选取92家st股票、90家非st股票，运用上述的调整的自由现金流量模型，对与股票价格、每股报表收益和每股自由现金流量相关的四个假设进行验证。
通过对四个假设的实证研究，最后在结论部分总结得出以下结论：每股自由现金流量的波动性要大于每股报表收益的波动性；股票价格与每股报表收益之间的相关性强于股票价格与每股自由现金流量的相关性，每股报表收益与每股自由现金流量的之间的相关性很弱；每股报表收益对股票价格的解释能力强于每股自由现金流量对股票价格的解释能力，每股报表收益与每股自由现金流量联合无法提高每股报表收益对股票价格的解释能力；每股报表收益与每股自由现金流量之间有因果关系。上述结论说明四个假设均与结论相一致。同时，我们也指出在研究工作中的一些不足以及对今后研究工作的展望。
A pair of contradictions datum when report form income and cash flow form enterprise' s achievement of analyzing: One party can reflect enterprise business performance well, but easy report form income index that handle (net profit); another party although difficult to handle, reflect listed company business performance ability relatively weaker cash flow index. Therefore, the relation between accurate appraisal report form income index and cash flow index has great significance to the security market of our country of the norm and the management of perfecting the listed company.
This text has adopted the method that the theory combines with positive research mainly, It is that the characteristic of the cash flow determines the nature to study to its one that goes on in theory according to the characteristic of the research object at first, The method of adopting the positive research further on the basis of this verifies the assumptions that are proved. Besides, the reality of combining China' s securities market carries on the gathering of the sample to st's stock, According to the theory, the process used to the positive research at last launches studying.
Through the positive research to four assumptions, we summarize and draw following conclusions in the conclusion part at last: The fluctuations of each whiff of own cash flow should be greater than the fluctuation of the income of report form per share, Suppose 1 to totally establish. Per share net assets unite each manage unable to raise the income explanation ability to the stock price of report form per share cash flow, The income explanation ability strong explanation ability to the stock price in each whiff of free cash flow to the stock price of report form per share. The dependence between stock price and income of report form per share is strong in the dependence of the stock price and each whiff of free cash flow; per share report form have causality with each a whiff of free cash flows by income. Above-mentioned conclusions prove that four assumptions are compatible with conclusion.
引文
1 冯巍．内部现金流量和企业投资分析．经济科学．1999，8：30-37
2 Beaver, W.H. Financial Reporting: An Accounting Resolution. The Journal of Finance, Economics, 3rd Edition. Prentice Hall International, Inc.
3 Beaver. The Time Series Behavior of Earnings and Stock Price Journal of Accounting Research. 1980, 8:62-69
4 Fama, E.F. Efficient Capital Market: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. The Journal of Finance. 1970, 25:77-101
5 Sloan R.G..Do Stock Price Fully Reflect Information in Accrual and Cash Flow about Future Earnings?. The Accounting Review, 1996, 7:289-315
6 Miller, M.H., and F. Modigliani. Some Estimate of the Cost of Capital to the Electric Utiliti Industry. The American Economic Review. 1996, 9:333-391
7 Abarbanell, J.S., Brian J. Bushee. Fundamental Analysis, Future Earning, and Stock Prices. Journal of Accounting Research. 1997:1-24
8 Livnat, J., P. Zarow in The Incremental Information Content of Cash Flow Components. Journal of Accounting and Economics. 1990.13:25-46
9 Ronald E. Shrieves, John M. Wachowicz. Free Cash Flow(FCF), Economic Value Added(EVA) , and Net Present Value(NPV): A Reconciliation of Variations Discounted-Cash-Flow(DCF) Valuation. 2000, 6:5-6
10 Patell, Kaplan. The Information Content of Cash Flow Data Relative to Annual Earnings. Stanforal University Working Paper. 1977, 8:16-20
11 Born, Jeffery A.,Moser, James T..Bank-Equity Returns and Changes in the Discount Rate. Journal of Financial Services Research, 1988(3):223-242
12 Gonedes, N. Corporate Signaling, External Accounting, and Capital Market Equilibrium:Evidence on Dividends, Income, and Extraordinary Items. Journal of Accounting Research, 1978, (16):26-79
13 郭强．浅议自由现金流量．上海会计．2003，4：48-50
14 何荣天，林国春．基于自由现金流量的组合投资策略与实证分析．证券市场导报．2001，12：22-26
15 (美)．罗斯．L．瓦茨．会计信息与股票价格．实证会计理论．东北财经大学出版社．1999
16 徐琪．利用现金流量法测算股票的内在价值．技术经济与管理．1999，6：20-25
17 赵宇龙．会计盈余披露的信息含量．经济研究．1998，7：41-49
18 叶青，易丹辉．中国股票市场价格波动与经济波动的关系．统计与决策．2000，1：7-8
19 黄海宁，李业．股票交易中操纵市场行为的形式与成因的剖析．经济理论与经济管理．1997，4：61-65
20 胡文学．现金流量表分析．财会月刊．1998，10：27-28
21 陈伟．自由现金流量在财务报表分析中的妙用．四川会计．1999，10：30-34
22 张先治．论以现金流量为基础的价值评估．求是学刊：2001，11：40-45
23 徐国祥．现阶段我国证券市场经济功能的统计测定研究．中国会计教授学会论文．1995：23-32
24 刘宇．我国股票市场功能定位的缺陷．经济导刊．1999，1：47-51
25 赵宇龙，王志台．我国证券市场”功能锁定”现象的实证研究．经济研究．1999，9：56-63
26 沈艺峰．会计信息披露和我国国票市场半强式有效性的实证分析．会计研究．1996，
27 傅依，张平．公司价值评估与证券投资分析，中国财政经济出版社．2001，7：104-105
28 张杰．收益相关性、小公司效应与市场效应．当代经济科学．1999，1：60-67
29 蒋义宏，李树华．证券市场会计问题实证研究．上海财经大学出版社．1998：71-123
30 陈晓， 陈小悦，刘钊．A股盈余报告的有用性研究．经济研究．1999，6：21-28
31 国际会计准测第7号——现金流量表
32 冯洪全，曾大宏，吴树畅．试论会计信息在资本市场中的价值．会计研究．1999，3：16-23
33 李增泉．实证分析：审计意见的信息含量．会计研究．1999，8：16-22
34 林勇峰．现金流动制会计．中国财政经济出版社．2002，3：65-66
35 沈艺峰．上市公司信息披露制度的公共效应．经济学动态．1998，3：18-23
36 徐宗宇．财务预测信息披露及其可靠性的实证研究．数量经济技术经济研究．1998，1：52-55
37 吴世农，韦绍永．上海股市投资组合和风险关系的实证研究．1998，4：104-112
38 陆静，孟卫东，廖刚．上市公司会计盈余、现金流量与股票价格的实证研究．经济科学．2002，5：34-43
39 卢纹岱，朱一力，沙捷．SPSS for Windows 从入门到精通。电子工业出版社。2000
40 徐哗．我国实证会计研究现状及前景．财会月刊．1998，5：14-16
2 Beaver, W.H. Financial Reporting: An Accounting Resolution. The Journal of Finance, Economics, 3rd Edition. Prentice Hall International, Inc.
3 Beaver. The Time Series Behavior of Earnings and Stock Price Journal of Accounting Research. 1980, 8:62-69
4 Fama, E.F. Efficient Capital Market: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. The Journal of Finance. 1970, 25:77-101
5 Sloan R.G..Do Stock Price Fully Reflect Information in Accrual and Cash Flow about Future Earnings?. The Accounting Review, 1996, 7:289-315
6 Miller, M.H., and F. Modigliani. Some Estimate of the Cost of Capital to the Electric Utiliti Industry. The American Economic Review. 1996, 9:333-391
7 Abarbanell, J.S., Brian J. Bushee. Fundamental Analysis, Future Earning, and Stock Prices. Journal of Accounting Research. 1997:1-24
8 Livnat, J., P. Zarow in The Incremental Information Content of Cash Flow Components. Journal of Accounting and Economics. 1990.13:25-46
9 Ronald E. Shrieves, John M. Wachowicz. Free Cash Flow(FCF), Economic Value Added(EVA) , and Net Present Value(NPV): A Reconciliation of Variations Discounted-Cash-Flow(DCF) Valuation. 2000, 6:5-6
10 Patell, Kaplan. The Information Content of Cash Flow Data Relative to Annual Earnings. Stanforal University Working Paper. 1977, 8:16-20
11 Born, Jeffery A.,Moser, James T..Bank-Equity Returns and Changes in the Discount Rate. Journal of Financial Services Research, 1988(3):223-242
12 Gonedes, N. Corporate Signaling, External Accounting, and Capital Market Equilibrium:Evidence on Dividends, Income, and Extraordinary Items. Journal of Accounting Research, 1978, (16):26-79
13 郭强．浅议自由现金流量．上海会计．2003，4：48-50
14 何荣天，林国春．基于自由现金流量的组合投资策略与实证分析．证券市场导报．2001，12：22-26
15 (美)．罗斯．L．瓦茨．会计信息与股票价格．实证会计理论．东北财经大学出版社．1999
16 徐琪．利用现金流量法测算股票的内在价值．技术经济与管理．1999，6：20-25
17 赵宇龙．会计盈余披露的信息含量．经济研究．1998，7：41-49
18 叶青，易丹辉．中国股票市场价格波动与经济波动的关系．统计与决策．2000，1：7-8
19 黄海宁，李业．股票交易中操纵市场行为的形式与成因的剖析．经济理论与经济管理．1997，4：61-65
20 胡文学．现金流量表分析．财会月刊．1998，10：27-28
21 陈伟．自由现金流量在财务报表分析中的妙用．四川会计．1999，10：30-34
22 张先治．论以现金流量为基础的价值评估．求是学刊：2001，11：40-45
23 徐国祥．现阶段我国证券市场经济功能的统计测定研究．中国会计教授学会论文．1995：23-32
24 刘宇．我国股票市场功能定位的缺陷．经济导刊．1999，1：47-51
25 赵宇龙，王志台．我国证券市场”功能锁定”现象的实证研究．经济研究．1999，9：56-63
26 沈艺峰．会计信息披露和我国国票市场半强式有效性的实证分析．会计研究．1996，
27 傅依，张平．公司价值评估与证券投资分析，中国财政经济出版社．2001，7：104-105
28 张杰．收益相关性、小公司效应与市场效应．当代经济科学．1999，1：60-67
29 蒋义宏，李树华．证券市场会计问题实证研究．上海财经大学出版社．1998：71-123
30 陈晓， 陈小悦，刘钊．A股盈余报告的有用性研究．经济研究．1999，6：21-28
31 国际会计准测第7号——现金流量表
32 冯洪全，曾大宏，吴树畅．试论会计信息在资本市场中的价值．会计研究．1999，3：16-23
33 李增泉．实证分析：审计意见的信息含量．会计研究．1999，8：16-22
34 林勇峰．现金流动制会计．中国财政经济出版社．2002，3：65-66
35 沈艺峰．上市公司信息披露制度的公共效应．经济学动态．1998，3：18-23
36 徐宗宇．财务预测信息披露及其可靠性的实证研究．数量经济技术经济研究．1998，1：52-55
37 吴世农，韦绍永．上海股市投资组合和风险关系的实证研究．1998，4：104-112
38 陆静，孟卫东，廖刚．上市公司会计盈余、现金流量与股票价格的实证研究．经济科学．2002，5：34-43
39 卢纹岱，朱一力，沙捷．SPSS for Windows 从入门到精通。电子工业出版社。2000
40 徐哗．我国实证会计研究现状及前景．财会月刊．1998，5：14-16