美元利率—汇率传导机制对中国汇率改革的借鉴
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摘要
本篇论文着眼于美元利率-汇率之间的传导机制的具体表现及其对中国的借鉴意义。
一方面,从对美国1990年到2005年汇率、利率政策的分析得出,在美国的货币市场和外汇市场,利率-汇率的传导机制得到了良好体现,货币政策与汇率政策之间可以灵活配合,共同服务于国内经济目标。利率和汇率配合的目标主要是稳定国内经济增长率,降低通货膨胀与失业率。美国对汇率波动采取放任态度,从不会单一为了稳定汇率而牺牲国内经济,这对汇率机制改革后我国货币政策与汇率政策的制定和实施有着较强的借鉴意义
另一方面,从中国1994年后货币与汇率政策配合情况的分析中可得出,目前人民币汇率与利率的相关性较弱,这在一定程度上导致了货币传导机制运行不畅。其主要原因是金融市场的不健全以及“双率”形成机制的非市场化。在我国新一轮的汇率改革中,尤其要注重利率机制与汇率机制的配套改革。首先,要加快利率市场化改革,形成利率与汇率的灵活的传导机制,其次,要加强货币政策与汇率政策的协调。
This paper focuses on the transmitting mechanism between US dollars' interestrate and foreign exchange rate and its lessons to China's foreign exchange reform.
On one hand, according to the analysis on America's foreign exchange rate andinterest rate policies from 1990 to 2005, the transmitting mechanism between interestrate and foreign exchange rate has been realized soundly in the money market andforeign exchange market, and foreign exchange rate and interest rate policiescooperated effectively to serve the national economic objectives together, which aremainly to stable the national economic growth rate and low the inflation rate andunemployment rate. American government assumes a let-along attitude on the foreignexchange fluctuations and never sacrifices national economy solely for the objectiveto stable the foreign exchange rate, which is a good lesson to the constitution andimplementation of China's foreign exchange rate and interest rate policies after theforeign exchange rate reform.
On the other hand, according to the analysis on the interaction between foreignexchange rate and interest rate policies of China after 1994, currently the correlationbetween RMB's foreign exchange rate and interest rate is relatively weak, which hashampered the functioning of money transmitting mechanism to some extent. Themajor reasons are the unsoundness of the financial market and in-marketization of the“Double Rate” formulation mechanism. In the new-round foreign exchange ratereform, the government should pay much attention to the supporting reform on theinterest rate mechanism and foreign exchange rate mechanism. First, the reform oninterest rate marketization should be fastened, and the transmitting mechanismbetween interest rate and foreign exchange rate should be established. Second, thegovernment should strengthen the cooperation between foreign exchange rate andinterest rate policies
一方面,从对美国1990年到2005年汇率、利率政策的分析得出,在美国的货币市场和外汇市场,利率-汇率的传导机制得到了良好体现,货币政策与汇率政策之间可以灵活配合,共同服务于国内经济目标。利率和汇率配合的目标主要是稳定国内经济增长率,降低通货膨胀与失业率。美国对汇率波动采取放任态度,从不会单一为了稳定汇率而牺牲国内经济,这对汇率机制改革后我国货币政策与汇率政策的制定和实施有着较强的借鉴意义
另一方面,从中国1994年后货币与汇率政策配合情况的分析中可得出,目前人民币汇率与利率的相关性较弱,这在一定程度上导致了货币传导机制运行不畅。其主要原因是金融市场的不健全以及“双率”形成机制的非市场化。在我国新一轮的汇率改革中,尤其要注重利率机制与汇率机制的配套改革。首先,要加快利率市场化改革,形成利率与汇率的灵活的传导机制,其次,要加强货币政策与汇率政策的协调。
This paper focuses on the transmitting mechanism between US dollars' interestrate and foreign exchange rate and its lessons to China's foreign exchange reform.
On one hand, according to the analysis on America's foreign exchange rate andinterest rate policies from 1990 to 2005, the transmitting mechanism between interestrate and foreign exchange rate has been realized soundly in the money market andforeign exchange market, and foreign exchange rate and interest rate policiescooperated effectively to serve the national economic objectives together, which aremainly to stable the national economic growth rate and low the inflation rate andunemployment rate. American government assumes a let-along attitude on the foreignexchange fluctuations and never sacrifices national economy solely for the objectiveto stable the foreign exchange rate, which is a good lesson to the constitution andimplementation of China's foreign exchange rate and interest rate policies after theforeign exchange rate reform.
On the other hand, according to the analysis on the interaction between foreignexchange rate and interest rate policies of China after 1994, currently the correlationbetween RMB's foreign exchange rate and interest rate is relatively weak, which hashampered the functioning of money transmitting mechanism to some extent. Themajor reasons are the unsoundness of the financial market and in-marketization of the“Double Rate” formulation mechanism. In the new-round foreign exchange ratereform, the government should pay much attention to the supporting reform on theinterest rate mechanism and foreign exchange rate mechanism. First, the reform oninterest rate marketization should be fastened, and the transmitting mechanismbetween interest rate and foreign exchange rate should be established. Second, thegovernment should strengthen the cooperation between foreign exchange rate andinterest rate policies
引文
1、陆文磊,2005 年:美元汇率有望企稳,新金融,2005,(6)
2、哈继铭,中国利率和汇率问题,国际金融研究,2006(1)
3、梁静、陈冰夷,2004年美元汇率走低的原因分析,科学与管理2005,(4)
4、蒋惠惠、王贵平、姜新旺,美元长期大幅贬值的探讨——兼论美国贸易赤字和美元贬值的关系,金融与经济,2005(9)
5、张纯威,金融约束下的货币政策传导,郑州大学学报,2005(1)
6、于培伟,美元持续贬值的看法和思考,中国远洋航务公告,2005(6)
7、黄瑞玲,汇率稳定机制——以钉住汇率制下的货币危机为视角,社会科学文献出版社,2005
8、刘兴华,汇率制度的选择,经济管理出版社,2005
9、刘淄,资本流动与货币政策下利率、汇率传导途径,南京财经大学学报,2005,(1)
10、杨忻、李志华,央行加息对人民币汇率的潜在影响,中国物流与采购,2005(2)
11、章丽群,货币政策与汇率制度的相关性分析,国际商务研究,2005年(3)
12、程实,美元汇率缘何跌跌不休,国际融资,2004,(9)
13、葛兰、易军,我国货币政策传导中利率机制的缺失及原因分析,《商场现代化》2006,(1)
14、张志超,汇率制度理论的新发展:文献综述,世界经济,2002,(1)
15、中国人民银行研究局课题组,利率和汇率政策协调与维护国家经济安全,经济工作者学习资料,2001,(18)
16、姜波克,开放经济下的货币市场调控,复旦大学出版社,1999
17、黄瑞玲,汇率稳定机制——以钉住汇率制下的货币危机为视角,社会科学文献出版社,2005
18、Michael Mussa、 Paul Masson、 Alexander Swoboda、Esteban Jadresic、 Paolo Mauro、and Andy Berg ,Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy,2005
19、何凌云、刘传哲,人民币汇率与利率的关联性检验:1979一2002,上海金融,2005(5)
20、薛荣俊,外汇市场与证券市场相互传导机制研究,经济论坛,2005(11)
21、王蕾,升息周期中美元汇率变动趋势分析—兼论美元的中长期弱势,国际金融研究,2005(5)
22、苗颖,我国利率与汇率政策关系,资本市场杂志,2004(6)
23、巴曙松,利率汇率互动空前紧密,中国证券报
24、万解秋、孙文基,开放经济下利率市场化的必要性与制度分析,世界经济,2004(4)
25、何攀,推进利率市场化改革,促进利率与汇率协调发展,四川大学硕士学位论文,2004
26、刘燕筠,近年影响美元汇率变动的五大因素,汇市分析,2003,(5)
27、王番红,利率政策对汇率传导机制研究,中国外汇管理,2000(1)
28、NBER Working Paper No.8963,The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation,May 2002
29、Joachim Fels,One money -but many nations,DECEMBER 2000
30、肖健,美元汇率变化与趋势研究,大连理工大学硕士学位论文,1999
31、黄锐光,美元汇率变动决定因素分析,中央财经大学硕士学位论文,1998
2、哈继铭,中国利率和汇率问题,国际金融研究,2006(1)
3、梁静、陈冰夷,2004年美元汇率走低的原因分析,科学与管理2005,(4)
4、蒋惠惠、王贵平、姜新旺,美元长期大幅贬值的探讨——兼论美国贸易赤字和美元贬值的关系,金融与经济,2005(9)
5、张纯威,金融约束下的货币政策传导,郑州大学学报,2005(1)
6、于培伟,美元持续贬值的看法和思考,中国远洋航务公告,2005(6)
7、黄瑞玲,汇率稳定机制——以钉住汇率制下的货币危机为视角,社会科学文献出版社,2005
8、刘兴华,汇率制度的选择,经济管理出版社,2005
9、刘淄,资本流动与货币政策下利率、汇率传导途径,南京财经大学学报,2005,(1)
10、杨忻、李志华,央行加息对人民币汇率的潜在影响,中国物流与采购,2005(2)
11、章丽群,货币政策与汇率制度的相关性分析,国际商务研究,2005年(3)
12、程实,美元汇率缘何跌跌不休,国际融资,2004,(9)
13、葛兰、易军,我国货币政策传导中利率机制的缺失及原因分析,《商场现代化》2006,(1)
14、张志超,汇率制度理论的新发展:文献综述,世界经济,2002,(1)
15、中国人民银行研究局课题组,利率和汇率政策协调与维护国家经济安全,经济工作者学习资料,2001,(18)
16、姜波克,开放经济下的货币市场调控,复旦大学出版社,1999
17、黄瑞玲,汇率稳定机制——以钉住汇率制下的货币危机为视角,社会科学文献出版社,2005
18、Michael Mussa、 Paul Masson、 Alexander Swoboda、Esteban Jadresic、 Paolo Mauro、and Andy Berg ,Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy,2005
19、何凌云、刘传哲,人民币汇率与利率的关联性检验:1979一2002,上海金融,2005(5)
20、薛荣俊,外汇市场与证券市场相互传导机制研究,经济论坛,2005(11)
21、王蕾,升息周期中美元汇率变动趋势分析—兼论美元的中长期弱势,国际金融研究,2005(5)
22、苗颖,我国利率与汇率政策关系,资本市场杂志,2004(6)
23、巴曙松,利率汇率互动空前紧密,中国证券报
24、万解秋、孙文基,开放经济下利率市场化的必要性与制度分析,世界经济,2004(4)
25、何攀,推进利率市场化改革,促进利率与汇率协调发展,四川大学硕士学位论文,2004
26、刘燕筠,近年影响美元汇率变动的五大因素,汇市分析,2003,(5)
27、王番红,利率政策对汇率传导机制研究,中国外汇管理,2000(1)
28、NBER Working Paper No.8963,The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation,May 2002
29、Joachim Fels,One money -but many nations,DECEMBER 2000
30、肖健,美元汇率变化与趋势研究,大连理工大学硕士学位论文,1999
31、黄锐光,美元汇率变动决定因素分析,中央财经大学硕士学位论文,1998