房地产税对房价的影响机理与实证分析
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摘要
房地产税历来作为国家调节房地产市场和社会经济分配的一个重要杠杆,是地方政府获取财政收入的重要手段,在整个税制中占有重要地位。在继土地、金融等政策组合实施之后,利用税收手段进一步加强对房地产市场调控正在成为我国房地产市场宏观调控的重点。近年来随着房地产业的持续升温,房地产价格和房地产税制改革问题正在成为学术研究、讨论的热点。究竟房地产税是如何影响房价?它的影响机理是什么?中国房地产税对房价的影响特征如何?正在酝酿开展的房地产税制改革对房价和地方公共财政又有何影响?本研究正试图分析这些问题。
本研究主要分文献综述,理论研究、实证检验、国际经验和房地产税制改革影响研究五个部分。文献综述系统综述有关房地产税对房价影响的理论研究进展。理论研究部分通过一般理论分析、地方公共支出视角和消费者需求视角三个维度展开,分别采用了局部均衡分析、Tiebout理论、效用函数和竞租函数等理论模型。经验实证部分分全国、区域和典型城市三个层面,分别基于全国数据,省际面板数据、杭州市数据,并采用面板数据平稳性分析、面板协整检验、面板数据误差修正模型、面板数据格兰杰因果关系检验和面板数据回归模型等计量经济方法,分析不同层面房地产税对房价的影响特征。国际经验部分本文对台湾等地房地产税制改革的经验和启示进行分析。房地产税制改革影响研究从改革前后房价波动、房地产税收收入变化视角分析房地产税制改革对房价和地方公共财政的影响,测算改革后的地方财政缺口。
本研究得出的主要结论如下
(1)对房地产征税,房地产价值会因房地产税收资本化而下降,同时又因地方公共服务资本化而提高。最终房地产税对房地产价值的影响,主要取决于房地产税、地方公共支出与房地产价值的关联性。
(2)在收入约束条件下,营业税、个人所得税的征收影响消费者住房消费、公共服务消费和复合产品消费三者的组合结构,并最终影响房地产价格。
(3)全国、区域层面的实证研究结果表明:房地产税对房价具有抑制作用,而地方公共支出则有助于房地产价值提升。
(4)房地产税对房价的影响效应具有显著的区域差异,总体而言,中部地区最明显,西部地区次之,东部地区不显著;同时各房地产税种对房价的影响效应也不尽相同。
(5)无论是地方公共支出强度,还是由交通资源、教育资源、文化资源、医疗资源和城市环境等变量表示的地方公共服务品支出水平,都与房地产价格有着显著的相关关系,这种影响效应具有动态差异性和区域差异性。
(6)以杭州市为案例的实证分析结果显示税收刺激与房地产价格波动具有显著相关性,2004年1月起实施的房地产转让所得税政策对房地产价格影响显著。
(7)国际经验的比较与借鉴表明,房地产税制改革时是否获得纳税人支持、坚持“宽税基、少税种、低税率”的改革方向、正确处理与地方公共财政的关系以及建立有效的房地产税收管理体系是决定房地产税制改革成败的关键因素。
(8)房地产税制改革对房价和地方公共财政影响模拟分析显示现行的房地产税制改革方案将导致存量和增量房地产价格下降,房地产税收收入增加;同时显示房地产税制改革方案对房价和地方公共财政具有重要影响。
本研究的政策建议是:首先,实行房地产税收政策和地方公共支出预算相互配合的财政组合政策,促进地区房地产市场发展;其次,应对现行的房地产税收制度进行改革,重点是减少房地产流通环节的税种和税负,开征物业税;再次,房地产税制改革应注重区域性的调控策略;最后,加强地方财政配套措施与房地产税收征管制度建设,有助于房地产税制改革成功实施。
Real estate taxes policy is an effective instrument for real estate market regulation and socio-economic resources distribution. It provides revenues for local governments, and plays a very important role in the entire tax system. Real estate taxes policy has become a important tool for real estate market macro-control, along with the implementation of land supply and finance policies. In recent years, the discussions on housing prices and real estate taxes reform are increasing. How does real estate taxes policy affect housing price? What is the mechanism of real estate taxes affecting housing price? What are the characteristics of China real estate taxes effects on housing price? How does the China real estate taxes reform impact housing price and local public finance? This study aims to analyze these questions.
This study mainly consists of five parts, including literature review, theoretical study, empirical study, international experience and real estate taxes reform effect discussion. Firstly, literature review examined the relative methods and theory about the impact of real estate taxes on housing price. Secondly, in the theoretical study, partial equilibrium analysis, Tiebout model, utility function and bid-rent function were employed to study the mechanism of real estate taxes' effects on housing price from the perspectives of general theoretical analysis, local public expenditure perspective and partial equilibrium framework. Thirdly, empirical study employed national level data, regional panel data and city level data to analyze the relationship between real estate taxes and housing price, by employing panel stationarity analysis, panel cointegraiotn test, panel error correction model, panel granger causality test and panel regression model. Fourthly, we adopted the national and district perspectives to analyze the real estate taxes reform experience Taiwan and other places. Finally, we discuss the impact of real estate taxes reform on housing price fluctuation and local public finance, and measure the financial gap after the reform.
The main conclusions go as follow.
(1) Real estate value would decrease for real estate capitalization and increase for local public service capitalization. How does real estate value change depends on the relationship among real estate taxes, local public expenditure and housing price.
(2) Under consumer budget constraint, business tax and personal income tax would affect the consumption structure of house, public services and composite goods. The taxes would change the level of housing consumption and finally influence housing price.
(3) The empirical study on national level data and regional panel reveal that China real estate taxes had negative impact on housing price, while local public expenditure would increase housing price.
(4) The effects of real estate taxes on housing price are regionally different, which is more obvious in Middle China than West China. In East China the real estate taxes effects on housing price are not obvious. We also found that each kind of real estate tax's impact on housing price was different.
(5) The effects of local public expenditure on housing price are dynamically and regionally different. We adopted the variables of traffic resources, educational resources, cultural resources, medical resources and the environment resources to analyze their impacts on housing price, and get the same conclusion.
(6) The empirical study with the case of Hangzhou reveals the significant correlation between real estate taxes incentives and housing price fluctuation. We found that real estate transfer tax policy implemented in January 2004 has a significant impact on housing price.
(7) International experience shows that whether the real estate taxes reform get the taxpayer's support, adhere to the "broad tax base, less categories of real estate taxes and low tax rates"direction, accurately deal with the relationship with public finance and establish effective real estate tax collection managements are very important factors for successful China real estate taxes reform.
(8) Simulation study of the impact of China real estate taxes reform on housing price and local public expenditure shows that the reform would lead to housing price decrease and real estate taxes revenue increase. It also shows that different reform plans induces to different effects on housing price and local public finance.
The policy implications are: (1) real estate taxes policy and pubic expenditure budget should be jointly used to control the real estate market development; (2) a reform on real estate taxes system is necessary. The tax burden in real estate circulation should be reduced, and property tax should be collected; (3) regional real estate taxes policies should be carried out; (4) measures to strengthen local financial regulation and real estate taxes collection management would contribute to a successful real estate taxes reform.
本研究主要分文献综述,理论研究、实证检验、国际经验和房地产税制改革影响研究五个部分。文献综述系统综述有关房地产税对房价影响的理论研究进展。理论研究部分通过一般理论分析、地方公共支出视角和消费者需求视角三个维度展开,分别采用了局部均衡分析、Tiebout理论、效用函数和竞租函数等理论模型。经验实证部分分全国、区域和典型城市三个层面,分别基于全国数据,省际面板数据、杭州市数据,并采用面板数据平稳性分析、面板协整检验、面板数据误差修正模型、面板数据格兰杰因果关系检验和面板数据回归模型等计量经济方法,分析不同层面房地产税对房价的影响特征。国际经验部分本文对台湾等地房地产税制改革的经验和启示进行分析。房地产税制改革影响研究从改革前后房价波动、房地产税收收入变化视角分析房地产税制改革对房价和地方公共财政的影响,测算改革后的地方财政缺口。
本研究得出的主要结论如下
(1)对房地产征税,房地产价值会因房地产税收资本化而下降,同时又因地方公共服务资本化而提高。最终房地产税对房地产价值的影响,主要取决于房地产税、地方公共支出与房地产价值的关联性。
(2)在收入约束条件下,营业税、个人所得税的征收影响消费者住房消费、公共服务消费和复合产品消费三者的组合结构,并最终影响房地产价格。
(3)全国、区域层面的实证研究结果表明:房地产税对房价具有抑制作用,而地方公共支出则有助于房地产价值提升。
(4)房地产税对房价的影响效应具有显著的区域差异,总体而言,中部地区最明显,西部地区次之,东部地区不显著;同时各房地产税种对房价的影响效应也不尽相同。
(5)无论是地方公共支出强度,还是由交通资源、教育资源、文化资源、医疗资源和城市环境等变量表示的地方公共服务品支出水平,都与房地产价格有着显著的相关关系,这种影响效应具有动态差异性和区域差异性。
(6)以杭州市为案例的实证分析结果显示税收刺激与房地产价格波动具有显著相关性,2004年1月起实施的房地产转让所得税政策对房地产价格影响显著。
(7)国际经验的比较与借鉴表明,房地产税制改革时是否获得纳税人支持、坚持“宽税基、少税种、低税率”的改革方向、正确处理与地方公共财政的关系以及建立有效的房地产税收管理体系是决定房地产税制改革成败的关键因素。
(8)房地产税制改革对房价和地方公共财政影响模拟分析显示现行的房地产税制改革方案将导致存量和增量房地产价格下降,房地产税收收入增加;同时显示房地产税制改革方案对房价和地方公共财政具有重要影响。
本研究的政策建议是:首先,实行房地产税收政策和地方公共支出预算相互配合的财政组合政策,促进地区房地产市场发展;其次,应对现行的房地产税收制度进行改革,重点是减少房地产流通环节的税种和税负,开征物业税;再次,房地产税制改革应注重区域性的调控策略;最后,加强地方财政配套措施与房地产税收征管制度建设,有助于房地产税制改革成功实施。
Real estate taxes policy is an effective instrument for real estate market regulation and socio-economic resources distribution. It provides revenues for local governments, and plays a very important role in the entire tax system. Real estate taxes policy has become a important tool for real estate market macro-control, along with the implementation of land supply and finance policies. In recent years, the discussions on housing prices and real estate taxes reform are increasing. How does real estate taxes policy affect housing price? What is the mechanism of real estate taxes affecting housing price? What are the characteristics of China real estate taxes effects on housing price? How does the China real estate taxes reform impact housing price and local public finance? This study aims to analyze these questions.
This study mainly consists of five parts, including literature review, theoretical study, empirical study, international experience and real estate taxes reform effect discussion. Firstly, literature review examined the relative methods and theory about the impact of real estate taxes on housing price. Secondly, in the theoretical study, partial equilibrium analysis, Tiebout model, utility function and bid-rent function were employed to study the mechanism of real estate taxes' effects on housing price from the perspectives of general theoretical analysis, local public expenditure perspective and partial equilibrium framework. Thirdly, empirical study employed national level data, regional panel data and city level data to analyze the relationship between real estate taxes and housing price, by employing panel stationarity analysis, panel cointegraiotn test, panel error correction model, panel granger causality test and panel regression model. Fourthly, we adopted the national and district perspectives to analyze the real estate taxes reform experience Taiwan and other places. Finally, we discuss the impact of real estate taxes reform on housing price fluctuation and local public finance, and measure the financial gap after the reform.
The main conclusions go as follow.
(1) Real estate value would decrease for real estate capitalization and increase for local public service capitalization. How does real estate value change depends on the relationship among real estate taxes, local public expenditure and housing price.
(2) Under consumer budget constraint, business tax and personal income tax would affect the consumption structure of house, public services and composite goods. The taxes would change the level of housing consumption and finally influence housing price.
(3) The empirical study on national level data and regional panel reveal that China real estate taxes had negative impact on housing price, while local public expenditure would increase housing price.
(4) The effects of real estate taxes on housing price are regionally different, which is more obvious in Middle China than West China. In East China the real estate taxes effects on housing price are not obvious. We also found that each kind of real estate tax's impact on housing price was different.
(5) The effects of local public expenditure on housing price are dynamically and regionally different. We adopted the variables of traffic resources, educational resources, cultural resources, medical resources and the environment resources to analyze their impacts on housing price, and get the same conclusion.
(6) The empirical study with the case of Hangzhou reveals the significant correlation between real estate taxes incentives and housing price fluctuation. We found that real estate transfer tax policy implemented in January 2004 has a significant impact on housing price.
(7) International experience shows that whether the real estate taxes reform get the taxpayer's support, adhere to the "broad tax base, less categories of real estate taxes and low tax rates"direction, accurately deal with the relationship with public finance and establish effective real estate tax collection managements are very important factors for successful China real estate taxes reform.
(8) Simulation study of the impact of China real estate taxes reform on housing price and local public expenditure shows that the reform would lead to housing price decrease and real estate taxes revenue increase. It also shows that different reform plans induces to different effects on housing price and local public finance.
The policy implications are: (1) real estate taxes policy and pubic expenditure budget should be jointly used to control the real estate market development; (2) a reform on real estate taxes system is necessary. The tax burden in real estate circulation should be reduced, and property tax should be collected; (3) regional real estate taxes policies should be carried out; (4) measures to strengthen local financial regulation and real estate taxes collection management would contribute to a successful real estate taxes reform.
引文
[7]陈多长.房地产税收论[M].北京:中国市场出版社,2005.
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