高新技术企业投资机会价值评估研究
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摘要
本文首先分析我国高新技术企业的发展现状，探讨了高新技术企业投资机会价值评估的必要性和可能性。通过对高新技术企业价值评估的国内外现状研究，分析了目前存在的不足。并根据高新技术企业的特点，结合我国的实际情况，提出了高新技术企业投资机会价值评估模型。
选取西北化工研究院的双马项目作为实例，对模型进行了验证，并从固定跳跃频率深入到随机跳跃频率来进一步分析和探讨评估结论对投资决策的影响。在此基础上，本文通过对技术、市场、管理、资金和政策环境等因素对高新技术企业评估结果的影响进行了阶段性和敏感性分析，结果表明：除了市场供给和市场需求以外，还有竞争强度、投资的时滞、投资的有效期和无风险利率参数等都对投资机会价值评估结果产生巨大的影响。
本文的主要研究成果如下：(1)投资机会价值在高新技术企业价值评估中占有重要的地位；(2)在提出的投资机会价值评估模型的基础上，结合实际，深入探讨随机跳跃频率下的评估结论对投资决策的影响；(3)从定性和定量两个角度系统地说明了技术、市场、管理、资金及政策对评估结论的影响程度是随着企业发展阶段的不同而不同；(4)证明了外部竞争强度、投资的时滞和无风险利率对企业的期权价值评估产生极大的负影响，即外部竞争强度越强、投资的时滞越长和无风险利率越大，企业的期权价值就越低，反之就越高；(5)市场需求和供给的分析结果与从经济学上的供需对产品价格的影响结论是一致的。总之，本文的研究成果除了具有一定的理论创新价值外，还对实践具有一定的启发性和指导性意义。
This thesis analyzed the status quo of domestic hi-tech enterprises' development and discussed the necessity and the feasibility to valuating the investment opportunity of hi-tech enterprise. By studying the status quo of domestic and foreign valuation theories and methods of hi-tech enterprise, the thesis analyzed the existing deficiency of the studies, and put forward a model of valuation of the investment opportunity of hi-tech enterprise on the base of features of hi-tech enterprise and the domestic practicalities.
The thesis chose ShuangMa project of Northwest Chemical Industry Academe as example to testify the model and deeply discuss the impactions on the result of the valuating the investment decision from fixed jumping frequency to random jumping frequency. Furthermore, this paper made staged analysis and sensitivity analysis of the factors', including technology, market, management, capital and policy environment, impaction on the result of the valuation of the hi-tech enterprise's investment opportunity. The analysis result indicates that: many parameters such as the competition intensity, the time lag of investment, the investment effective-life and the riskless interest rate beside the varieties of the market supply and the market demand make great impaction on the result of the valuation of the investment opportunity of hi-tech enterprise.
The thesis achieved such following main results and innovation points: (1) The valuation of the investment opportunity plays an important role in the valuation of hi-tech enterprise. (2) Based on putting forward the model and combined with practice, this paper deeply discusses the impactions on the result of the valuation of the investment decision on condition of random jumping frequency. (3) It proved that the factors such as technology, market, management, fund and policy environment make different impaction on the result of the valuation of the investment opportunity of hi-tech enterprise during different developmental phases. (4) The competition intensity, the time lag of investment and the riskless rate make great negative impaction on the option value of hi-tech enterprise. (5) The conclusion of analysis achieved from which the varieties of the market supply and the market demand make impaction on the result of the valuation accord with the conclusion of analysis achieved from which the varieties impact to price on economics. Generally, the results of this thesis not only play important role in theory, but also take elicitation and direction to practice in the real world.
选取西北化工研究院的双马项目作为实例，对模型进行了验证，并从固定跳跃频率深入到随机跳跃频率来进一步分析和探讨评估结论对投资决策的影响。在此基础上，本文通过对技术、市场、管理、资金和政策环境等因素对高新技术企业评估结果的影响进行了阶段性和敏感性分析，结果表明：除了市场供给和市场需求以外，还有竞争强度、投资的时滞、投资的有效期和无风险利率参数等都对投资机会价值评估结果产生巨大的影响。
本文的主要研究成果如下：(1)投资机会价值在高新技术企业价值评估中占有重要的地位；(2)在提出的投资机会价值评估模型的基础上，结合实际，深入探讨随机跳跃频率下的评估结论对投资决策的影响；(3)从定性和定量两个角度系统地说明了技术、市场、管理、资金及政策对评估结论的影响程度是随着企业发展阶段的不同而不同；(4)证明了外部竞争强度、投资的时滞和无风险利率对企业的期权价值评估产生极大的负影响，即外部竞争强度越强、投资的时滞越长和无风险利率越大，企业的期权价值就越低，反之就越高；(5)市场需求和供给的分析结果与从经济学上的供需对产品价格的影响结论是一致的。总之，本文的研究成果除了具有一定的理论创新价值外，还对实践具有一定的启发性和指导性意义。
This thesis analyzed the status quo of domestic hi-tech enterprises' development and discussed the necessity and the feasibility to valuating the investment opportunity of hi-tech enterprise. By studying the status quo of domestic and foreign valuation theories and methods of hi-tech enterprise, the thesis analyzed the existing deficiency of the studies, and put forward a model of valuation of the investment opportunity of hi-tech enterprise on the base of features of hi-tech enterprise and the domestic practicalities.
The thesis chose ShuangMa project of Northwest Chemical Industry Academe as example to testify the model and deeply discuss the impactions on the result of the valuating the investment decision from fixed jumping frequency to random jumping frequency. Furthermore, this paper made staged analysis and sensitivity analysis of the factors', including technology, market, management, capital and policy environment, impaction on the result of the valuation of the hi-tech enterprise's investment opportunity. The analysis result indicates that: many parameters such as the competition intensity, the time lag of investment, the investment effective-life and the riskless interest rate beside the varieties of the market supply and the market demand make great impaction on the result of the valuation of the investment opportunity of hi-tech enterprise.
The thesis achieved such following main results and innovation points: (1) The valuation of the investment opportunity plays an important role in the valuation of hi-tech enterprise. (2) Based on putting forward the model and combined with practice, this paper deeply discusses the impactions on the result of the valuation of the investment decision on condition of random jumping frequency. (3) It proved that the factors such as technology, market, management, fund and policy environment make different impaction on the result of the valuation of the investment opportunity of hi-tech enterprise during different developmental phases. (4) The competition intensity, the time lag of investment and the riskless rate make great negative impaction on the option value of hi-tech enterprise. (5) The conclusion of analysis achieved from which the varieties of the market supply and the market demand make impaction on the result of the valuation accord with the conclusion of analysis achieved from which the varieties impact to price on economics. Generally, the results of this thesis not only play important role in theory, but also take elicitation and direction to practice in the real world.
引文
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[9] Aswath Damodaran 著，朱武祥等译．投资估价．清化大学出版社，1999．
[10] 王少豪．高新技术企业价值评估．北京：中信出版社，2001：3-19，223-248
[11] 申长江，等．国内外风险投资项目评估概况．管理现代化．2000(6)：441-45
[12] 孙秋鹏，等．高科技风险投资项目风险评价体系．软科学，15(1)，2001
[13] 卫民堂，王宏毅，梁磊．决策理论与技术．西安：西安交通大学出版社，2000
[14] Adela Luque. An Option-Value Approach To Technology Adoption In U.S. Manufacturing: Evidence from Plant-Level Data. Working Paper, 1999.
[15] 钱世政，赵迎东．风险投资价值评估的柔性分析．财经研究[J]．
27(11),2001:44-50
[16] Margaret E. Slade. Managing Projects Flexibly: An Application of Real-Option Theory. Discussion Paper No. : 98-02, February. 1998
[17] 严复海，何伟平，尹文诚．期权理论在投资决策中的应用．甘肃工业大学学报．27(1)，2001．
[18] J.S. Busby, C.G.C. Pitts. Real Option and Capital Investment Decisions. Management Accounting(British), V 75, Nov, 1997.
[19] 彭澎．现代企业投资战略之期权分析．中南工学院学报，1998(1)．
[20] Harriet Black Nembhard, Leyuan Shi, Chan S. Park. Real Option Models for Managing Manufacturing System Changes in The New Economy. Engineering Economist, V45, Fall, 2000.
[21] Katrin Ostertag. Real Option Values and The Diffusion of Energy Saving Technologies. ETIC 2001 Conference, 2001.
[22] 阿维纳希．K．迪克希特，罗伯特．S．平代克．资本投资的期权方法，哈佛商业评论，1995年3-6月期．
[23] 期权思想与方法的应用探讨．http://www.chinatech.com.cn/. 2001(8)．
[24] Dimitri P. Bertsekas. Selected Theoretical Problem Solutions. Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control, V1 2000.
[25] 戴和忠．现实期权在R&D项目评价中的应用．科研管理，21(2)，2000．
[26] 徐尚友，张一帆．实物期权与创业价值评估．技术经济与管理研究．2002(4)，38-39
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