电力产业节能减排机制设计模型与方法研究
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摘要
中国电力工业的节能减排工作对提高全社会的能源使用效率和保护环境具有重要的意义。过去虽然我国在电力节能减排机制的设计上取得了一定的成果,但是由于大多注重于建设法律机制和政策机制,市场机制和价格机制的设计和建设没有得到充分的重视,在未来,随着市场条件的不断完善,我国必将在这两方面做更多努力,而本课题就是以此为背景,主要研究以市场和价格为导向的电力节能减排机制设计方法和模型构建,旨在为未来我国电力节能减排的建设提供理论参考。课题从产业链的角度进行研究,分别研究了发电侧、供电侧和发供侧联合节能减排的设计模型与方法。
关于发电侧节能减排机制的设计问题,课题重点研究了发电排污权交易机制和发电权交易机制的设计模型。在发电排污权交易机制的设计上,课题首先提出了五种发电排污权分配模型,并对比了他们的特点,指出了其适应范围。随后建立了基于双层博弈理论的发电排污权交易价格优化模型,模型能够很好地协调发电商和交易中心之间的利益,最小化系统的总排污量。在发电权交易机制的设计上,课题将发电商之间的发电权交易视为一种合作行为,运用合作博弈理论构建了发电商之间的利润分配模型,模型更符合中国当前市场条件还不成熟的实际情况。
关于供电侧节能减排机制的设计,课题重点分析了差别电价影响作用分析模型和能效电厂投资优化组合模型。在差别电价上,运用投入产出模型分析了差别电价对国民经济、社会、能源和环境的影响作用,分析发现总体来看,差别电价的正面影响还是大于负面影响。在能效电厂的投资优化问题上,运用MSV风险度量方法度量能效电厂在有碳交易情况下的投资风险,构建投资决策优化模型,该方法较其他方法更能真正体现能效电厂的投资风险。
在发供联合构建节能减排机制设计方面,课题首先分析了发供侧在节能减排上的共同利益链条。在此基础上,以需求侧响应为例,运用系统动力学模型建立了发供相互作用的系统模型,并进行了实证模拟分析。研究表明,发电公司与供电公司在节能减排上合作是有必要的,这包括发电公司必须将其由于供电公司参与而产生的节能减排效益中的一部分资金转移给供电公司以弥补供电公司的售电收入损失,同时,发电公司也必须及时将资金转移到位,只有这样供电公司才会积极参与到需求侧响应计划中去。
在电力节能减排绩效的评估问题上,课题以二氧化碳减排为例,首先将全社会的二氧化碳排放分解为电力二氧化碳排放和其他活动的二氧化碳排放,运用LMDI分解模型研究了电力工业的二氧化碳减排对全社会二氧化碳减排的贡献,结果发现电力在提高全社会的二氧化碳减排绩效方面发挥了非常重要的作用。同时进一步运用LMDI模型将电力节能减排的影响因素分解为发电二氧化碳排放系数效应、发电标准能耗效应、发用电比率效应、单位GDP电耗效应和电力GDP比重效应。实证分析表明,就全国而言,发电标准降耗效应和单位GDP电耗效应是促进电力二氧化碳减排取的最主要因素。但就各省市来说,有时候其他指标也同样发挥着非常重要的作用。
The energy-efficient and emission-reducing of power industry is of great signifinance to improve China's energy usage efficiency and environmental protection. Although the power industry had made great gains in this regard, most of them focused on building the legal mechanisms and policy mechanisms, the designning and constructing market mechanisms and price mechanism have not been fully appreciated. In the future, China will do more in these two areas with the improving of market conditions. Based on this background, this paper researches the desinging methods and modelling of market and price-oriented energy-efficient and emission-reducing mechanisms for the electric power industry, which could provide theoretical reference for the future works. The generation side, supply side and jointly side energy-efficient and emission-reducing mechnism'designning had been researched from the industies'perspective.
On the mechanism for power generation-side energy-efficient and emission-reducing, the designing of power emission trading mechanism and power generation alloawance trading mechanism are researched. Firstly, the distribution of power generation emission allowance are researched, in which five modes are proposed and compared. And then a model to design the generation emission allowance price are established by the game theory, the model can well coordinate the benefits of the trading center and generators so as to minimize their total emissions. Finnaly, the cooperative game theory are applied for distributing the generators'profits under the case that they are cooperated in the generation allowance trading, this model can well explain the current case of China.
On the desinging mechanism of power supply-side energy-efficient and emission-reducing, the problems on explaining the effects of differential electric power pricing (DEPP) and investment of energy efficiency power plant are researched in this work. The input-output model is applied for modelling the effects of DEPP on China's energy, environment, society and economy and the results show that the positive effects of DEPP are better than its negative effects. The MSV risk measure is applied for constructing the designing model of energy efficiency power plant's investment, this method are superior to other method in that it can better reflect the risk confronted by the energy efficiency power plant.
On the designning of generation and supply operative mechanism of energy-efficient and emission-reducing, the profit relationship is firstly researched. Based on this, the system dynamics model is applied to model the chain among power generators and suppliers in the case of demand side response, and finnaly an empirical simulation is done. The research shows that it is necessary for the generators to cooperate with the suppliers, and they should transfer part of their benefits to the suppliers to compensate part of the suppliers'electricity sale revenue. Meantime, the transfer should be payed in time to fully encourage the suppliers.
On assessing the performance of power industries'energy-efficient and emission-reducing, the LMDI method is applied firstly to researche the importance of power industry in contributing to the whole societies'energy-efficient and emission-reducing taking the CO2 emission reduction as an example. Results show that the power industry is vital in this regard. And the factors influencing the performance of power industries'energy-efficient and emission-reducing are decomposed into the effects of CO2 coefficient, energy intensity of power generation, ratio of power generation and consumption, electricity intensity of GDP and structural effects of power industry. The results shows that the effects of energy intensity of power generation and electricity intensity of GDP are most important for reducing China's CO2 emissions of the power industry, but other factors may also be important to several provinces in China.
关于发电侧节能减排机制的设计问题,课题重点研究了发电排污权交易机制和发电权交易机制的设计模型。在发电排污权交易机制的设计上,课题首先提出了五种发电排污权分配模型,并对比了他们的特点,指出了其适应范围。随后建立了基于双层博弈理论的发电排污权交易价格优化模型,模型能够很好地协调发电商和交易中心之间的利益,最小化系统的总排污量。在发电权交易机制的设计上,课题将发电商之间的发电权交易视为一种合作行为,运用合作博弈理论构建了发电商之间的利润分配模型,模型更符合中国当前市场条件还不成熟的实际情况。
关于供电侧节能减排机制的设计,课题重点分析了差别电价影响作用分析模型和能效电厂投资优化组合模型。在差别电价上,运用投入产出模型分析了差别电价对国民经济、社会、能源和环境的影响作用,分析发现总体来看,差别电价的正面影响还是大于负面影响。在能效电厂的投资优化问题上,运用MSV风险度量方法度量能效电厂在有碳交易情况下的投资风险,构建投资决策优化模型,该方法较其他方法更能真正体现能效电厂的投资风险。
在发供联合构建节能减排机制设计方面,课题首先分析了发供侧在节能减排上的共同利益链条。在此基础上,以需求侧响应为例,运用系统动力学模型建立了发供相互作用的系统模型,并进行了实证模拟分析。研究表明,发电公司与供电公司在节能减排上合作是有必要的,这包括发电公司必须将其由于供电公司参与而产生的节能减排效益中的一部分资金转移给供电公司以弥补供电公司的售电收入损失,同时,发电公司也必须及时将资金转移到位,只有这样供电公司才会积极参与到需求侧响应计划中去。
在电力节能减排绩效的评估问题上,课题以二氧化碳减排为例,首先将全社会的二氧化碳排放分解为电力二氧化碳排放和其他活动的二氧化碳排放,运用LMDI分解模型研究了电力工业的二氧化碳减排对全社会二氧化碳减排的贡献,结果发现电力在提高全社会的二氧化碳减排绩效方面发挥了非常重要的作用。同时进一步运用LMDI模型将电力节能减排的影响因素分解为发电二氧化碳排放系数效应、发电标准能耗效应、发用电比率效应、单位GDP电耗效应和电力GDP比重效应。实证分析表明,就全国而言,发电标准降耗效应和单位GDP电耗效应是促进电力二氧化碳减排取的最主要因素。但就各省市来说,有时候其他指标也同样发挥着非常重要的作用。
The energy-efficient and emission-reducing of power industry is of great signifinance to improve China's energy usage efficiency and environmental protection. Although the power industry had made great gains in this regard, most of them focused on building the legal mechanisms and policy mechanisms, the designning and constructing market mechanisms and price mechanism have not been fully appreciated. In the future, China will do more in these two areas with the improving of market conditions. Based on this background, this paper researches the desinging methods and modelling of market and price-oriented energy-efficient and emission-reducing mechanisms for the electric power industry, which could provide theoretical reference for the future works. The generation side, supply side and jointly side energy-efficient and emission-reducing mechnism'designning had been researched from the industies'perspective.
On the mechanism for power generation-side energy-efficient and emission-reducing, the designing of power emission trading mechanism and power generation alloawance trading mechanism are researched. Firstly, the distribution of power generation emission allowance are researched, in which five modes are proposed and compared. And then a model to design the generation emission allowance price are established by the game theory, the model can well coordinate the benefits of the trading center and generators so as to minimize their total emissions. Finnaly, the cooperative game theory are applied for distributing the generators'profits under the case that they are cooperated in the generation allowance trading, this model can well explain the current case of China.
On the desinging mechanism of power supply-side energy-efficient and emission-reducing, the problems on explaining the effects of differential electric power pricing (DEPP) and investment of energy efficiency power plant are researched in this work. The input-output model is applied for modelling the effects of DEPP on China's energy, environment, society and economy and the results show that the positive effects of DEPP are better than its negative effects. The MSV risk measure is applied for constructing the designing model of energy efficiency power plant's investment, this method are superior to other method in that it can better reflect the risk confronted by the energy efficiency power plant.
On the designning of generation and supply operative mechanism of energy-efficient and emission-reducing, the profit relationship is firstly researched. Based on this, the system dynamics model is applied to model the chain among power generators and suppliers in the case of demand side response, and finnaly an empirical simulation is done. The research shows that it is necessary for the generators to cooperate with the suppliers, and they should transfer part of their benefits to the suppliers to compensate part of the suppliers'electricity sale revenue. Meantime, the transfer should be payed in time to fully encourage the suppliers.
On assessing the performance of power industries'energy-efficient and emission-reducing, the LMDI method is applied firstly to researche the importance of power industry in contributing to the whole societies'energy-efficient and emission-reducing taking the CO2 emission reduction as an example. Results show that the power industry is vital in this regard. And the factors influencing the performance of power industries'energy-efficient and emission-reducing are decomposed into the effects of CO2 coefficient, energy intensity of power generation, ratio of power generation and consumption, electricity intensity of GDP and structural effects of power industry. The results shows that the effects of energy intensity of power generation and electricity intensity of GDP are most important for reducing China's CO2 emissions of the power industry, but other factors may also be important to several provinces in China.
引文
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