中国农村居民收入流动性实证研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,中国高速的经济增长引起了世界惊叹,但是与之相伴随的是收入差距的不断扩大,目前中国已进入世界上不平等程度较高的国家行列。与此同时,在过去的近四分之一个世纪中,尽管中国实现了世界上规模最大的减贫,但是由于贫困人口基数大,我国仍是世界贫困人口总量第二大的国家,而且在最近的十年里,我国减贫的速度却在下降,在有些年份贫困甚至有所回升。除了“对平等的关怀几乎是所有道德哲学共有的特征”之外,更为重要的是,目前已有研究表明高度的收入不平等倾向于损害整体经济增长,并损害经济增长的减贫效果,从而不利于经济的可持续增长。由此,在保持经济稳定快速增长的同时,如何兼顾到收入公平,就成为学者和政策制定者们关注的焦点。
本研究的总目标是探索实现经济增长兼顾收入公平的新思路,以经济增长如何兼顾收入公平作为研究出发点,认为收入流动性有利于促进长期收入的均等化,并增强经济增长的减贫效果,进而实现经济增长兼顾长期内的收入公平。通过构建“收入流动性——促进长期收入均等化,增强经济增长的减贫效果——经济增长兼顾长期内收入公平”的研究框架,本研究考察了中国农村收入流动性的状况,并重点分析了收入流动性在促进长期收入均等化和增强经济增长减贫效果方面的重要作用。在此基础之上,本研究进一步分析了中国农村收入流动性的影响因素,以此为政府选择并实施切实有效的促进经济增长兼顾收入公平的政策提供了决策依据。本研究得出的初步结论可以总结如下：
1.在1988～2003年间,虽然有一定波动,但是中国农村居民家庭的收入流动性整体上不断上升。在收入差距不断扩大的背景下,其意义尤为重要。收入流动性在农村内部不同类型的农村居民之间、农村居民与城镇居民之间存在差异性,但在收入流动性的变动趋势上都呈现出同步变化特征。在1996年以后,农村居民收入流动性的提高主要归因于城市发展对农民工以及农产品的需求本身具有选择性和不确定性,而国企改革导致的大规模职工下岗和再就业所引致的收入波动性提高,可能是引起城镇居民收入流动性上升的主要原因。
2.收入流动性有力地促进了中国农村居民家庭长期收入分配的均等化,它是促使农村居民长期收入分配状况较短期更为公平的主要原因。但是,在1996年以后,伴随着收入不平等程度的持续扩大,收入流动性对长期收入均等化的贡献并没有相应程度的提高,从而导致了中国农村居民长期收入均等化程度的下降。如果这种趋势继续保持下去的话,那么可以预见,中国农村居民的收入分层结构将逐渐趋于稳定,从而长期收入分配的不平等程度将逐步扩大。因此,如何在控制收入差距进一步扩大的同时,尽力提高中国农村居民的收入流动性,将是中国政府亟待解决的重要课题。
3.由于收入流动性的积极作用,中国农村贫困更多地是一种暂时性的贫困,绝大多数的贫困家庭并不会在长期内一直处于贫困的状态。中国农村存在着较高程度的脱离贫困与进入贫困并存的现象,且其呈现出以下特征：在下一调查年度会脱离(或进入)贫困的家庭中,大多数家庭都分布在离贫困线较近的阶层；不同收入阶层的贫困(或非贫困)家庭在脱离(或进入)贫困的可能性上存在明显的差别,离贫困线越近的贫困(或非贫困)家庭在下一调查年度脱离(或进入)贫困的可能性越高；绝大多数的贫困(或非贫困)家庭在脱离(或进入)贫困后都分布在离贫困线较近的收入阶层；贫困家庭在脱贫后并不具有较强的维持非贫困状态的能力,而且脱贫家庭进入贫困的可能性要显著高于没有经历过贫困的家庭,同时,对于从非贫困状态进入到贫困状态的家庭来说,该类家庭在脱贫的可能性上要略高于之前一直保持贫困状态的家庭。
在中国农村减贫的速度有所下降的情况下,收入流动性在缓解贫困方面的作用凸显。但是,收入流动性在缓解贫困方面的积极作用存在其局限性,收入流动性仅仅有利于缓解部分特定人群(接近贫困线的人群)的贫困,它并不能从根本上解决中国农村的贫困问题。经济增长、日益公平的收入分配以及有力的扶贫措施(尤其针对于远离贫困线的贫困人群)仍然是彻底消除贫困的有力措施,而收入流动性则会起到锦上添花的作用。
4.教育水平、耕地规模、初始收入地位和地理区位等因素,尤其是非农收入比重对中国农村的收入流动性具有显著的影响。较高的教育水平会降低收入地位向下流动的可能性,而家庭人均耕地水平、非农收入比重的提高都会促进农户家庭收入地位的向上流动。这里尤其需要关注的是非农收入对收入流动性的重要作用,其政策含义意味着政府在将为农民创造更多的非农就业机会作为工作重点的同时,也要注重广大农民工的职业教育和就业技能培训,并在提供就业信息上承担更多的责任,从而为广大农民提供一个公平的获得非农就业机会的环境。这不但会对提高农民收入产生积极的促进作用,而且有利于改善农村居民家庭的长期收入分配状况,促进农村经济社会的和谐稳定发展。
最后,本文提出了努力提高收入流动性,使其处于合理的水平；抑制收入差距的进一步扩大；将深度贫困人口作为未来扶贫工作的重点；统一和完善城乡劳动力市场及社会保障体系,提供完善和成熟的公平竞争的市场经济制度环境等政策建议。
Since the reform and opening, along with China's surprising rapid economic growth, the income inequality was expanding constantly, and China has been a country with high income inequality. Meanwhile, during the past quarter of a century, China has realized the largest scale of poverty reduction, and because of the huge poverty population, China is still the second largest poverty population country in the world, but also the speed of poverty reduction was decreased in the most recent ten years. Except caring for equality is the common characteristic of the Moral Philosophy, more importantly, recent research demonstrates that the effect of high income inequality on growth is negative, also for the effect of anti-poverty. Therefore, how to promote national economy increasing fast and steadily by combining fairness considered has become the focus of many scholars and policy makers.
The overall objective of this study is to explore possible new approaches for realizing economic growth with fairness considered. This study holds that income mobility is beneficial to promote the equalization of long-term income, and enhance the positive effect of economy growth on anti-poverty, thus realizing economic growth with long-term income fairness considered. Through constructing the frame of income mobility—promoting equalization of long-term income, enhancing the positive effect of economy growth on anti-poverty—economy growth with long-term income fairness considered, this study analyzed the income mobility in rural China from 1988 to 2003, mainly analyzed the positive effect of income mobility on promoting equalization of long-term income and anti-poverty. Base on these works, this study further analyzed the influencing factors of income mobility, and provided the decision support for realizing economy growth with long-term income fairness considered. The tentative conclusions of this study are:
1. Though a certain fluctuation existed, from the global aspect, the income mobility in rural China was rising constantly form 1988 to 2003. This has a very important meaning under the realistic background that income inequality has been getting more and more. The difference of income mobility among different rural household groups, between rural and town was significant, but the tendency of income mobility for all groups was same. After 1996, the characteristics of selectivity and uncertainty, which the demand of peasant workers and agricultural products for urban development has, was the main reason of promoting the increase of income mobility in rural China. While, the income fluctuation maybe result the increasing of income mobility in town, which was caused by laid-off and reemployment in the state-owned enterprises.
2. Income mobility has forcibly promoted the equalization of long-term income for rural household; it is the mean reason that caused the income distribution was more equal in the long-term. But after 1996, with the constant enlargement of income equality, the decrease of the equalization degree of long-term income after 1996 was caused by the improvement degree of income mobility was lower than the decreasing degree of income distribution. If this trend will continue in the future, it can be predicted that the income stratified structure in rural China will gradually stabilized, and the long-term income inequality will be gradually enlarged. Therefore, it will be an important subject needed to resolve as soon as possible that how to control the enlargement of income equality by combining striving to improve income mobility considered for government.
3. Because of the positive effect of income mobility on anti-poverty, the state of poverty in rural China was mostly temporary poverty. The phenomenon of exiting from and slipping into poverty was very common, and it has the following characteristics:most of the household that will escape (or slip) poverty in the next investigating year was located near the poverty line; there existed a significant difference on the possibility of exiting from or slipping into poverty between different income levels household in poverty or non-poverty, the household near the poverty line has a more possibility to escape or slip poverty in the next investigation year; the poverty or non-poverty household mostly located near the poverty line after escaping or slipping into poverty; the poverty household didn't had strong capacity of maintaining the state of non-poverty after exiting from poverty, meanwhile, the possibility of escaping from poverty for the household that slipping into poverty was higher than the household had been in poverty long before.
The positive effect of income mobility on anti-poverty is very important, especially under the condition of the speed of decreasing poverty in China decreased somewhat. But, it must be treated that the positive effect of income mobility on anti-poverty has limitation, which has positive effect for specific population (especially for the poverty population near the poverty line), it can't solve the China's poverty radically. Economy growth, equitable distribution of income and powerful anti-poverty measure is still the effective measures for anti-poverty completely, while income mobility can make it more perfect.
4. It was found that education, the amount of household land, initial income status and geographical location, especially the proportion of non-agriculture income have significant effects on the household income mobility in rural China. A higher education can decrease the possibility of downward income mobility, while the improving of the familial per capita average agrarian area and the non-farm income rate can increase the possibility of upward income mobility. The non-farm income plays an important role in income mobility, it means that on the base of creation more non-agricultural employment opportunities has been taken as the important work, government should pay more attention to the peasant workers'vocational education and employment skill training, shoulder more responsibilities for providing employment information, and provide a fair environment of acquiring non-agricultural employment opportunities. It can not only increase peasants' income, but also improve the peasants'long-term income inequality, so as to promote the harmonious and stable development of economy and society in rural areas.
At last, we put forth policy suggestion on how to realize economy growth with long-term income fairness considered such as improving income mobility on a reasonable level; controlling enlargement of income equality in rural China; making the very poor population as the important work in the future poverty relief work; integrating and perfecting rural-urban labor market and social security system, providing an institutional conditions of market economic environment of perfect, mature and fair competition.
本研究的总目标是探索实现经济增长兼顾收入公平的新思路,以经济增长如何兼顾收入公平作为研究出发点,认为收入流动性有利于促进长期收入的均等化,并增强经济增长的减贫效果,进而实现经济增长兼顾长期内的收入公平。通过构建“收入流动性——促进长期收入均等化,增强经济增长的减贫效果——经济增长兼顾长期内收入公平”的研究框架,本研究考察了中国农村收入流动性的状况,并重点分析了收入流动性在促进长期收入均等化和增强经济增长减贫效果方面的重要作用。在此基础之上,本研究进一步分析了中国农村收入流动性的影响因素,以此为政府选择并实施切实有效的促进经济增长兼顾收入公平的政策提供了决策依据。本研究得出的初步结论可以总结如下：
1.在1988～2003年间,虽然有一定波动,但是中国农村居民家庭的收入流动性整体上不断上升。在收入差距不断扩大的背景下,其意义尤为重要。收入流动性在农村内部不同类型的农村居民之间、农村居民与城镇居民之间存在差异性,但在收入流动性的变动趋势上都呈现出同步变化特征。在1996年以后,农村居民收入流动性的提高主要归因于城市发展对农民工以及农产品的需求本身具有选择性和不确定性,而国企改革导致的大规模职工下岗和再就业所引致的收入波动性提高,可能是引起城镇居民收入流动性上升的主要原因。
2.收入流动性有力地促进了中国农村居民家庭长期收入分配的均等化,它是促使农村居民长期收入分配状况较短期更为公平的主要原因。但是,在1996年以后,伴随着收入不平等程度的持续扩大,收入流动性对长期收入均等化的贡献并没有相应程度的提高,从而导致了中国农村居民长期收入均等化程度的下降。如果这种趋势继续保持下去的话,那么可以预见,中国农村居民的收入分层结构将逐渐趋于稳定,从而长期收入分配的不平等程度将逐步扩大。因此,如何在控制收入差距进一步扩大的同时,尽力提高中国农村居民的收入流动性,将是中国政府亟待解决的重要课题。
3.由于收入流动性的积极作用,中国农村贫困更多地是一种暂时性的贫困,绝大多数的贫困家庭并不会在长期内一直处于贫困的状态。中国农村存在着较高程度的脱离贫困与进入贫困并存的现象,且其呈现出以下特征：在下一调查年度会脱离(或进入)贫困的家庭中,大多数家庭都分布在离贫困线较近的阶层；不同收入阶层的贫困(或非贫困)家庭在脱离(或进入)贫困的可能性上存在明显的差别,离贫困线越近的贫困(或非贫困)家庭在下一调查年度脱离(或进入)贫困的可能性越高；绝大多数的贫困(或非贫困)家庭在脱离(或进入)贫困后都分布在离贫困线较近的收入阶层；贫困家庭在脱贫后并不具有较强的维持非贫困状态的能力,而且脱贫家庭进入贫困的可能性要显著高于没有经历过贫困的家庭,同时,对于从非贫困状态进入到贫困状态的家庭来说,该类家庭在脱贫的可能性上要略高于之前一直保持贫困状态的家庭。
在中国农村减贫的速度有所下降的情况下,收入流动性在缓解贫困方面的作用凸显。但是,收入流动性在缓解贫困方面的积极作用存在其局限性,收入流动性仅仅有利于缓解部分特定人群(接近贫困线的人群)的贫困,它并不能从根本上解决中国农村的贫困问题。经济增长、日益公平的收入分配以及有力的扶贫措施(尤其针对于远离贫困线的贫困人群)仍然是彻底消除贫困的有力措施,而收入流动性则会起到锦上添花的作用。
4.教育水平、耕地规模、初始收入地位和地理区位等因素,尤其是非农收入比重对中国农村的收入流动性具有显著的影响。较高的教育水平会降低收入地位向下流动的可能性,而家庭人均耕地水平、非农收入比重的提高都会促进农户家庭收入地位的向上流动。这里尤其需要关注的是非农收入对收入流动性的重要作用,其政策含义意味着政府在将为农民创造更多的非农就业机会作为工作重点的同时,也要注重广大农民工的职业教育和就业技能培训,并在提供就业信息上承担更多的责任,从而为广大农民提供一个公平的获得非农就业机会的环境。这不但会对提高农民收入产生积极的促进作用,而且有利于改善农村居民家庭的长期收入分配状况,促进农村经济社会的和谐稳定发展。
最后,本文提出了努力提高收入流动性,使其处于合理的水平；抑制收入差距的进一步扩大；将深度贫困人口作为未来扶贫工作的重点；统一和完善城乡劳动力市场及社会保障体系,提供完善和成熟的公平竞争的市场经济制度环境等政策建议。
Since the reform and opening, along with China's surprising rapid economic growth, the income inequality was expanding constantly, and China has been a country with high income inequality. Meanwhile, during the past quarter of a century, China has realized the largest scale of poverty reduction, and because of the huge poverty population, China is still the second largest poverty population country in the world, but also the speed of poverty reduction was decreased in the most recent ten years. Except caring for equality is the common characteristic of the Moral Philosophy, more importantly, recent research demonstrates that the effect of high income inequality on growth is negative, also for the effect of anti-poverty. Therefore, how to promote national economy increasing fast and steadily by combining fairness considered has become the focus of many scholars and policy makers.
The overall objective of this study is to explore possible new approaches for realizing economic growth with fairness considered. This study holds that income mobility is beneficial to promote the equalization of long-term income, and enhance the positive effect of economy growth on anti-poverty, thus realizing economic growth with long-term income fairness considered. Through constructing the frame of income mobility—promoting equalization of long-term income, enhancing the positive effect of economy growth on anti-poverty—economy growth with long-term income fairness considered, this study analyzed the income mobility in rural China from 1988 to 2003, mainly analyzed the positive effect of income mobility on promoting equalization of long-term income and anti-poverty. Base on these works, this study further analyzed the influencing factors of income mobility, and provided the decision support for realizing economy growth with long-term income fairness considered. The tentative conclusions of this study are:
1. Though a certain fluctuation existed, from the global aspect, the income mobility in rural China was rising constantly form 1988 to 2003. This has a very important meaning under the realistic background that income inequality has been getting more and more. The difference of income mobility among different rural household groups, between rural and town was significant, but the tendency of income mobility for all groups was same. After 1996, the characteristics of selectivity and uncertainty, which the demand of peasant workers and agricultural products for urban development has, was the main reason of promoting the increase of income mobility in rural China. While, the income fluctuation maybe result the increasing of income mobility in town, which was caused by laid-off and reemployment in the state-owned enterprises.
2. Income mobility has forcibly promoted the equalization of long-term income for rural household; it is the mean reason that caused the income distribution was more equal in the long-term. But after 1996, with the constant enlargement of income equality, the decrease of the equalization degree of long-term income after 1996 was caused by the improvement degree of income mobility was lower than the decreasing degree of income distribution. If this trend will continue in the future, it can be predicted that the income stratified structure in rural China will gradually stabilized, and the long-term income inequality will be gradually enlarged. Therefore, it will be an important subject needed to resolve as soon as possible that how to control the enlargement of income equality by combining striving to improve income mobility considered for government.
3. Because of the positive effect of income mobility on anti-poverty, the state of poverty in rural China was mostly temporary poverty. The phenomenon of exiting from and slipping into poverty was very common, and it has the following characteristics:most of the household that will escape (or slip) poverty in the next investigating year was located near the poverty line; there existed a significant difference on the possibility of exiting from or slipping into poverty between different income levels household in poverty or non-poverty, the household near the poverty line has a more possibility to escape or slip poverty in the next investigation year; the poverty or non-poverty household mostly located near the poverty line after escaping or slipping into poverty; the poverty household didn't had strong capacity of maintaining the state of non-poverty after exiting from poverty, meanwhile, the possibility of escaping from poverty for the household that slipping into poverty was higher than the household had been in poverty long before.
The positive effect of income mobility on anti-poverty is very important, especially under the condition of the speed of decreasing poverty in China decreased somewhat. But, it must be treated that the positive effect of income mobility on anti-poverty has limitation, which has positive effect for specific population (especially for the poverty population near the poverty line), it can't solve the China's poverty radically. Economy growth, equitable distribution of income and powerful anti-poverty measure is still the effective measures for anti-poverty completely, while income mobility can make it more perfect.
4. It was found that education, the amount of household land, initial income status and geographical location, especially the proportion of non-agriculture income have significant effects on the household income mobility in rural China. A higher education can decrease the possibility of downward income mobility, while the improving of the familial per capita average agrarian area and the non-farm income rate can increase the possibility of upward income mobility. The non-farm income plays an important role in income mobility, it means that on the base of creation more non-agricultural employment opportunities has been taken as the important work, government should pay more attention to the peasant workers'vocational education and employment skill training, shoulder more responsibilities for providing employment information, and provide a fair environment of acquiring non-agricultural employment opportunities. It can not only increase peasants' income, but also improve the peasants'long-term income inequality, so as to promote the harmonious and stable development of economy and society in rural areas.
At last, we put forth policy suggestion on how to realize economy growth with long-term income fairness considered such as improving income mobility on a reasonable level; controlling enlargement of income equality in rural China; making the very poor population as the important work in the future poverty relief work; integrating and perfecting rural-urban labor market and social security system, providing an institutional conditions of market economic environment of perfect, mature and fair competition.
引文
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