人民币汇率变动对我国进出口价格传递效应研究
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摘要
汇率作为一国货币的对外价格，是一国经济内外部平衡调整的核心变量。汇率变动会直接引起一国的相对于进口的出口价格的变化，进而通过支出转换效应引起一国贸易收支的调整。汇率变动还会进一步传递给一国的一般价格水平。
自2005年，人民币汇率形成机制进一步市场化改革以来，人民币名义和实际有效汇率持续大幅升值。据经典的贸易收支调节理论，人民币的持续大幅升值势必引起中国贸易条件的改善，抑制出口鼓励进口，通过支出转换效应调节贸易收支，解决中国经济长期的外部不平衡现象。但事实与经典理论是相悖的，2005年7月21日以来人民币持续大幅升值，但同时我国的贸易顺差从2004年的319.8亿美元激增至1018.8亿美元，并以2005年为转折点，进入千亿美元以上的大规模高速增长阶段。经典贸易收支理论不能解释“人民币汇率与我国贸易收支调节相悖”的现象，必须寻找新的解释角度。本文从人民币汇率变动对我国进出口价格传递效应的角度进行了总体、行业和国家层面的多层次较为深入的研究。
首先，对汇率进出口价格传递效应的国内外文献理论和经验研究文献进行了梳理。第二，考虑到汇率传递效应的作用路径是汇率-进出口价格-贸易收支，通过梳理开放宏观理论中有关汇率、进出口价格和贸易收支调整关系的理论和分析范式的演进，厘清三者之间的关系及其影响因素，并在新开放宏观理论分析范式的基础上，提出人民币汇率传递与中国贸易收支调整问题的分析思路。第三，分析人民币汇率制度、人民币汇率、我国进出口商品价格和进出口商品结构以及我国贸易收支规模和结构的变动趋势和特征，进一步说明了研究的选题背景和意义。第四，基于“双边”方法，分别估计了人民币汇率变动对我国出口价格总指数和行业出口价格的传递效应。第五，基于细分行业数据和“多边”方法，研究人民币汇率变动对我国出口价格传递效应的行业和国别差异。第六，基于“双边”方法，分别在加总数据层面和高度细分的行业数据层面研究人民币汇率变动对我国进口价格的传递效应。第七，在第5～第7章的经验研究的结果的基础上，讨论人民币汇率不完全传递与我国贸易条件变动之间的关系，并分析人民币持续升值与我国贸易条件恶化并存的矛盾现象发生的原因。最后，分析人民币汇率不完全不对称传递的政策含义。
研究结果表明：
首先，在整体上，人民币汇率变动对我国以外币标价的出口价格的传递在汇率变动3个月后接近于完全，此后逐步回调，1年后稳定在0.43。而对我国进口价格的传递是逐步累积的，汇率变动1年后稳定在0.92。人民币汇率出口传递和进口传递的动态传递模式是非常不一致的。出口传递在滞后3个月快速接近完全后就开始回调，并且表现出越来越显著的按市场定价行为。由于出口传递的特点是按市场定价行为累积而进口传递的特点是快速趋近完全传递，因此汇率变动后，出口相对价格会体现出快速超调地提高出口相对价格的趋势，但随后又逐渐降低。汇率变动1年后，相对出口价格的提高程度约为经典理论的一半。这意味着汇率调整的支出转换效应被削弱了约50%。
在行业层面，我国的贸易顺差主要来自于机电和劳动密集型产品，而这两类产品正是我国出口定价中按市场定价行为特别突出的两大行业，研究估计机电行业的按市场定价系数约为0.7，劳动密集型产品还要高于0.7。这意味着贸易顺差主要来源于两个支出转换效应被减弱了约70%的行业。
从国别层面看，主要贸易顺差来源国美国，也是我国出口定价中按市场定价行为最显著的国家。由于我国从美国进口的汇率传递率是完全的，这意味着中美双边贸易中，人民币升值的支出转换效应约被抵消了50%。中日双边贸易中，人民币汇率的出口价格传递是和进口价和传递是差不多的，但都不完全，意味着人民币汇率变动对中日贸易差额的调节作用较美国强。
2005~2007年间，人民币持续升值与贸易条件恶化并存，除了人民币汇率不完全传递大大削弱了升值改善贸易条件的效应之外，影响进出口相对价格的国内外市场的需求供给因素逆转了这一作用。一方面，中国出口商定价能力弱和出口商品结构的调整使我国出口价格的上升幅度较小，另一方面基础建设投资拉动的对能源和原材料的需求大幅增长使我国的进口价格上升幅度较大。我国2005～2007年的顺差高增长是特定的内部和外部供求因素作用下的结果，我国很难在贸易条件持续恶化和外部需求减少的情况下维持出口和贸易顺差的增长。
上述研究结论对当今中国面临的宏观内外部平衡问题具有重要的政策启示：首先，必须强调，在以美元为主要国际储备货币的国际货币制度的大背景下，人民币汇率完全不是全球再平衡的关键。不从中美两国的内部平衡着手是无法解决外部平衡问题的。第二，我国的汇率和贸易收支政策短期内的基本原则应该是尽量保持人民币汇率的稳定，避免人民币在短期内的大幅升值，以保证我国对外贸易的稳步发展和经济稳定增长。与此同时，应谨慎有序推进资本项目可兑换改革。第三，我国贸易政策的核心应为提高进出口商的议价能力。最后，内外部平衡政策的大方向应该是从出口驱动和投资拉动型的经济增长方式转变为内需拉动型的经济增长方式。
Foreign Exchange Rate, as the price for an economy’s currency, is the keyvariable for its internal and external balance adjustment. Foreign Exchange Ratefluctuations directly change an economy’s relative export prices to the import prices,which, through the Expenditure Switching Effect, leads to the adjustment of tradebalance and further of the country’s general price level.
Since2005in which reform for the formation mechanism of RMB’s ForeignExchange Rate has been more market-oriented, Both the Nominal and Real EffectiveExchange Rate of RMB have been rising continuously and sharply. According to theclassic trade balance theory, this will result in relative export prices adjustment withimport prices denominated in local currency decrease and export prices in foreigncurrency increase and thus depressing exports and encouraging imports which throughthe Expenditure Switching Effect, reducing China’s huge trade surplus and improvingChina’s internal and external imbalance. But facts contradict the theory. China's tradesurplus increased sharply from$31.98billion in2004to$101.88billion in2005andsince then China’s trade surplus has been experiencing rapid growth in large-scale.There really is the paradox of trade surplus accumulation with RMB appreciation whichthis dissertation tries to explain from the view of Foreign Exchange Rate Pass-Through.
To explain the paradox, first the dissertation makes a literature and theory surveyof the Foreign Exchange Rate Pass-Through. Second reviewing the analytical frame forthe relationship of Foreign Exchange Rate, relative export prices and the trade balanceadjustment in open macroeconomics, the dissertation bases its analytical frame on theNew Open Economy Macroeconomics. Third facts and figures on the statistical trend ofRMB Foreign Exchange Rate, China’s export and import prices and China’s tradebalances are analyzed describing further the paradox. Fourth the dissertation estimatesthe RBM’s exchange rate pass-through rate into China’s export prices at aggregate andindustry levels respectively basing on bilateral approach. Fifth the dissertation focuseson the variation of RBM’s exchange rate pass-through rate into China’s export pricesacross country and industries on multilateral estimation and highly disaggregated data.Sixth RBM’s exchange rate pass-through rate into China’s import prices is estimatedusing the bilateral approach. Seventh, basing on the experimental estimation resultsfrom Chapter5to7, the dissertation discusses the relationship between incomplete Exchange Rate Pass Through and the tendency of China’s Terms of Trade explaining theparadox of trade surplus accumulation with the continuing deterioration of China’s TOT.Finally Chapter9provides insights for the internal-external balances adjustmentpolicies.
The conclusions of the dissertation are as follows:
First aggregately the dynamics of RBM’s exchange rate pass-through rate intoChina’s export prices are almost complete3months after the RMB exchange ratechange, and then fall gradually to0.431year later. The dynamics of RBM’s exchangerate pass-through rate into China’s import prices are approaching complete. The obviousPricing-to-Market behavior in China’s export weakens the Expenditure Switching Effectby half.
At the industry level, the main resources for China’s trade surplus are SITC7(machinery and transport equipment) and SITC8(labor intensive products).Pricing-to-Market coefficients for these two industries are over0.7thus weakening theExpenditure Switching Effect by70%considering the complete exchange ratepass-through rate into China’s import prices.
The US is the main country resource for China’s trade surplus andPricing-to-Market coefficient is the highest among China’s main trade partnersweakening the Expenditure Switching Effect by50%considering the completeexchange rate pass-through rate into China’s import prices from the US. In bilateraltrade between China and Japan, RBM’s exchange rate pass-through rate into China’sexport prices to Japan and import price from Japan are both incomplete and almostequal (0.7).
There are two chains from the fluctuation of Foreign Exchange Rate to theadjustment of the trade surplus: first the relative export price e.g. the Terms of Tradeadjusts with the change of Foreign Exchange Rate and then through the ExpenditureSwitching Effect, the Change of TOT influences an Economy’s trade surplus. Howeverfrom2005to2007, continuous appreciation of RMB has been accompanying withcontinuous deterioration of TOT because other demand and supply factors in domesticand international markets reverse the Expenditure Switching Effect besides incompleteExchange Pass Through weakening it seriously. On one hand, the increase of the exportprices is limited because of the weak bargaining power of China’s exporters and therestructuring of the exporting commodity; On the other hand, investment-driven importdemand for energy and raw materials push sharply China’s importing prices. The rapid growth of large scale trade surplus between2005and2007is the result of both theinternal and external supply-demand factors. It will be hard for China to see the furthergrowth of trade surplus with the continuous deterioration of TOT and decreasing ofexternal demand since the global financial crisis in2008.
Conclusively the dissertation explains the paradox of trade surplus accumulationwith RMB appreciation form Exchange Rate Pass-Through and provides new insightsfor our internal-external imbalance adjustment policy making
First it must be stressed that under the background of USD as the maininternational reserve currency, the Foreign Exchange Rate of RMB is absolutely not thekey to the global rebalance. Without US and China’s efforts to restructure theireconomies, it is impossible to solve the problem of global imbalance. Secondly, inshort-run, the fundamental principle for China’s Foreign Exchange Rate and tradebalance policies should keep RMB stable and avoid sharp appreciation to ensure thegrowth of trade and GDP. At the same time, the government should make the RMBconvertible under capital accounts gradually and cautiously. Thirdly the core of China’strade policies should be improving the bargaining power of Chinese importers andexporters. Finally Considering the internal and external adjustments are not cyclical butstructural, China’s future growth must depend on domestic demand.
For macroeconomic internal and external balance, RMB’s Foreign Exchange Rateis far away from the key. The Elasticity analysis deals Foreign Exchange Rate under thepartial equilibrium frame which is actually a typical general equilibrium problem.Reform instead of appreciation of RMB is the key for China’s macroeconomic balanceproblems.
自2005年，人民币汇率形成机制进一步市场化改革以来，人民币名义和实际有效汇率持续大幅升值。据经典的贸易收支调节理论，人民币的持续大幅升值势必引起中国贸易条件的改善，抑制出口鼓励进口，通过支出转换效应调节贸易收支，解决中国经济长期的外部不平衡现象。但事实与经典理论是相悖的，2005年7月21日以来人民币持续大幅升值，但同时我国的贸易顺差从2004年的319.8亿美元激增至1018.8亿美元，并以2005年为转折点，进入千亿美元以上的大规模高速增长阶段。经典贸易收支理论不能解释“人民币汇率与我国贸易收支调节相悖”的现象，必须寻找新的解释角度。本文从人民币汇率变动对我国进出口价格传递效应的角度进行了总体、行业和国家层面的多层次较为深入的研究。
首先，对汇率进出口价格传递效应的国内外文献理论和经验研究文献进行了梳理。第二，考虑到汇率传递效应的作用路径是汇率-进出口价格-贸易收支，通过梳理开放宏观理论中有关汇率、进出口价格和贸易收支调整关系的理论和分析范式的演进，厘清三者之间的关系及其影响因素，并在新开放宏观理论分析范式的基础上，提出人民币汇率传递与中国贸易收支调整问题的分析思路。第三，分析人民币汇率制度、人民币汇率、我国进出口商品价格和进出口商品结构以及我国贸易收支规模和结构的变动趋势和特征，进一步说明了研究的选题背景和意义。第四，基于“双边”方法，分别估计了人民币汇率变动对我国出口价格总指数和行业出口价格的传递效应。第五，基于细分行业数据和“多边”方法，研究人民币汇率变动对我国出口价格传递效应的行业和国别差异。第六，基于“双边”方法，分别在加总数据层面和高度细分的行业数据层面研究人民币汇率变动对我国进口价格的传递效应。第七，在第5～第7章的经验研究的结果的基础上，讨论人民币汇率不完全传递与我国贸易条件变动之间的关系，并分析人民币持续升值与我国贸易条件恶化并存的矛盾现象发生的原因。最后，分析人民币汇率不完全不对称传递的政策含义。
研究结果表明：
首先，在整体上，人民币汇率变动对我国以外币标价的出口价格的传递在汇率变动3个月后接近于完全，此后逐步回调，1年后稳定在0.43。而对我国进口价格的传递是逐步累积的，汇率变动1年后稳定在0.92。人民币汇率出口传递和进口传递的动态传递模式是非常不一致的。出口传递在滞后3个月快速接近完全后就开始回调，并且表现出越来越显著的按市场定价行为。由于出口传递的特点是按市场定价行为累积而进口传递的特点是快速趋近完全传递，因此汇率变动后，出口相对价格会体现出快速超调地提高出口相对价格的趋势，但随后又逐渐降低。汇率变动1年后，相对出口价格的提高程度约为经典理论的一半。这意味着汇率调整的支出转换效应被削弱了约50%。
在行业层面，我国的贸易顺差主要来自于机电和劳动密集型产品，而这两类产品正是我国出口定价中按市场定价行为特别突出的两大行业，研究估计机电行业的按市场定价系数约为0.7，劳动密集型产品还要高于0.7。这意味着贸易顺差主要来源于两个支出转换效应被减弱了约70%的行业。
从国别层面看，主要贸易顺差来源国美国，也是我国出口定价中按市场定价行为最显著的国家。由于我国从美国进口的汇率传递率是完全的，这意味着中美双边贸易中，人民币升值的支出转换效应约被抵消了50%。中日双边贸易中，人民币汇率的出口价格传递是和进口价和传递是差不多的，但都不完全，意味着人民币汇率变动对中日贸易差额的调节作用较美国强。
2005~2007年间，人民币持续升值与贸易条件恶化并存，除了人民币汇率不完全传递大大削弱了升值改善贸易条件的效应之外，影响进出口相对价格的国内外市场的需求供给因素逆转了这一作用。一方面，中国出口商定价能力弱和出口商品结构的调整使我国出口价格的上升幅度较小，另一方面基础建设投资拉动的对能源和原材料的需求大幅增长使我国的进口价格上升幅度较大。我国2005～2007年的顺差高增长是特定的内部和外部供求因素作用下的结果，我国很难在贸易条件持续恶化和外部需求减少的情况下维持出口和贸易顺差的增长。
上述研究结论对当今中国面临的宏观内外部平衡问题具有重要的政策启示：首先，必须强调，在以美元为主要国际储备货币的国际货币制度的大背景下，人民币汇率完全不是全球再平衡的关键。不从中美两国的内部平衡着手是无法解决外部平衡问题的。第二，我国的汇率和贸易收支政策短期内的基本原则应该是尽量保持人民币汇率的稳定，避免人民币在短期内的大幅升值，以保证我国对外贸易的稳步发展和经济稳定增长。与此同时，应谨慎有序推进资本项目可兑换改革。第三，我国贸易政策的核心应为提高进出口商的议价能力。最后，内外部平衡政策的大方向应该是从出口驱动和投资拉动型的经济增长方式转变为内需拉动型的经济增长方式。
Foreign Exchange Rate, as the price for an economy’s currency, is the keyvariable for its internal and external balance adjustment. Foreign Exchange Ratefluctuations directly change an economy’s relative export prices to the import prices,which, through the Expenditure Switching Effect, leads to the adjustment of tradebalance and further of the country’s general price level.
Since2005in which reform for the formation mechanism of RMB’s ForeignExchange Rate has been more market-oriented, Both the Nominal and Real EffectiveExchange Rate of RMB have been rising continuously and sharply. According to theclassic trade balance theory, this will result in relative export prices adjustment withimport prices denominated in local currency decrease and export prices in foreigncurrency increase and thus depressing exports and encouraging imports which throughthe Expenditure Switching Effect, reducing China’s huge trade surplus and improvingChina’s internal and external imbalance. But facts contradict the theory. China's tradesurplus increased sharply from$31.98billion in2004to$101.88billion in2005andsince then China’s trade surplus has been experiencing rapid growth in large-scale.There really is the paradox of trade surplus accumulation with RMB appreciation whichthis dissertation tries to explain from the view of Foreign Exchange Rate Pass-Through.
To explain the paradox, first the dissertation makes a literature and theory surveyof the Foreign Exchange Rate Pass-Through. Second reviewing the analytical frame forthe relationship of Foreign Exchange Rate, relative export prices and the trade balanceadjustment in open macroeconomics, the dissertation bases its analytical frame on theNew Open Economy Macroeconomics. Third facts and figures on the statistical trend ofRMB Foreign Exchange Rate, China’s export and import prices and China’s tradebalances are analyzed describing further the paradox. Fourth the dissertation estimatesthe RBM’s exchange rate pass-through rate into China’s export prices at aggregate andindustry levels respectively basing on bilateral approach. Fifth the dissertation focuseson the variation of RBM’s exchange rate pass-through rate into China’s export pricesacross country and industries on multilateral estimation and highly disaggregated data.Sixth RBM’s exchange rate pass-through rate into China’s import prices is estimatedusing the bilateral approach. Seventh, basing on the experimental estimation resultsfrom Chapter5to7, the dissertation discusses the relationship between incomplete Exchange Rate Pass Through and the tendency of China’s Terms of Trade explaining theparadox of trade surplus accumulation with the continuing deterioration of China’s TOT.Finally Chapter9provides insights for the internal-external balances adjustmentpolicies.
The conclusions of the dissertation are as follows:
First aggregately the dynamics of RBM’s exchange rate pass-through rate intoChina’s export prices are almost complete3months after the RMB exchange ratechange, and then fall gradually to0.431year later. The dynamics of RBM’s exchangerate pass-through rate into China’s import prices are approaching complete. The obviousPricing-to-Market behavior in China’s export weakens the Expenditure Switching Effectby half.
At the industry level, the main resources for China’s trade surplus are SITC7(machinery and transport equipment) and SITC8(labor intensive products).Pricing-to-Market coefficients for these two industries are over0.7thus weakening theExpenditure Switching Effect by70%considering the complete exchange ratepass-through rate into China’s import prices.
The US is the main country resource for China’s trade surplus andPricing-to-Market coefficient is the highest among China’s main trade partnersweakening the Expenditure Switching Effect by50%considering the completeexchange rate pass-through rate into China’s import prices from the US. In bilateraltrade between China and Japan, RBM’s exchange rate pass-through rate into China’sexport prices to Japan and import price from Japan are both incomplete and almostequal (0.7).
There are two chains from the fluctuation of Foreign Exchange Rate to theadjustment of the trade surplus: first the relative export price e.g. the Terms of Tradeadjusts with the change of Foreign Exchange Rate and then through the ExpenditureSwitching Effect, the Change of TOT influences an Economy’s trade surplus. Howeverfrom2005to2007, continuous appreciation of RMB has been accompanying withcontinuous deterioration of TOT because other demand and supply factors in domesticand international markets reverse the Expenditure Switching Effect besides incompleteExchange Pass Through weakening it seriously. On one hand, the increase of the exportprices is limited because of the weak bargaining power of China’s exporters and therestructuring of the exporting commodity; On the other hand, investment-driven importdemand for energy and raw materials push sharply China’s importing prices. The rapid growth of large scale trade surplus between2005and2007is the result of both theinternal and external supply-demand factors. It will be hard for China to see the furthergrowth of trade surplus with the continuous deterioration of TOT and decreasing ofexternal demand since the global financial crisis in2008.
Conclusively the dissertation explains the paradox of trade surplus accumulationwith RMB appreciation form Exchange Rate Pass-Through and provides new insightsfor our internal-external imbalance adjustment policy making
First it must be stressed that under the background of USD as the maininternational reserve currency, the Foreign Exchange Rate of RMB is absolutely not thekey to the global rebalance. Without US and China’s efforts to restructure theireconomies, it is impossible to solve the problem of global imbalance. Secondly, inshort-run, the fundamental principle for China’s Foreign Exchange Rate and tradebalance policies should keep RMB stable and avoid sharp appreciation to ensure thegrowth of trade and GDP. At the same time, the government should make the RMBconvertible under capital accounts gradually and cautiously. Thirdly the core of China’strade policies should be improving the bargaining power of Chinese importers andexporters. Finally Considering the internal and external adjustments are not cyclical butstructural, China’s future growth must depend on domestic demand.
For macroeconomic internal and external balance, RMB’s Foreign Exchange Rateis far away from the key. The Elasticity analysis deals Foreign Exchange Rate under thepartial equilibrium frame which is actually a typical general equilibrium problem.Reform instead of appreciation of RMB is the key for China’s macroeconomic balanceproblems.
引文
①参见Stulz(2007),Shambaugh(2008)。
②参见Ghosh A.和R.Rajan.2007.“A Survey of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Asia”
③参见Goldberg和Knetter(1997), Webber(1999)，Coughlin和Pollard(2000)，Marazzi和Sheets(2006)等大量文献。
①参见Branson(1972)，Magee(1973)以及Ghosh和Wolf(1994)
②参见Hooper和Mann(1989)以及Campa和Goldberg(2004)等
③参见Goldberg和Hellerstein (2007)以及Nakamura (2007)。
①参见Woo，1984; Hooper、Mann，1989；
①参见李东平（2008）：“近年中国贸易顺差虚假贸易程度及其对货币政策的影响分析”，《国际经济评论》，第5~6期；王志浩（2006）：“中国贸易：百慕大三角洲，计算方法问题，还是外汇流入？”，《渣打银行报告》；张明，徐以升（2008）：“全口径测算中国当前的热钱规模”，中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中工作论文No.0814。
①参见Knetter和Goldberg(1989)
①参见McCarthy(2000)
②参见Choudhri，Farquee和Hakura(2005)
①参见Michael M. Knetter (1989)“Price Discrimination by U.S. and German Exporters”, the American EconomicReview, Vol.79, No.1(Mar.,1989), pp.202对该问题的详细讨论。
②参见Froot和Klemperer（1989），Parsley（1995），Goldberg和Knetter (1997)
①参见卢峰（2004）
②参见Ghosh,A.和R.S. Rajan (2007)
③参见Devereux和Engel(2001)
②参见feenstra(1989); Campa and Goldberg(2004)
①参见Knetter和Goldberg(1989)
②参见McCathy(2000)
③参见Choudhri，Farquee和Hakura(2005)
③参见Melitz(2003)。
④参见Bernard&Jensen(2004), Arnold&Hussinger (2005),Aw, Roberts and Winston(2007)以及Kasahara&Rodrigue(2008)。
⑤参见李春顶（2009，2010）。
①参见IMF.2012. Regional Economic Outlook:Asia and Pacific-Managing Spillovers andAdvancing EconomicRebalancing：36.
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②参见Ghosh A.和R.Rajan.2007.“A Survey of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Asia”
③参见Goldberg和Knetter(1997), Webber(1999)，Coughlin和Pollard(2000)，Marazzi和Sheets(2006)等大量文献。
①参见Branson(1972)，Magee(1973)以及Ghosh和Wolf(1994)
②参见Hooper和Mann(1989)以及Campa和Goldberg(2004)等
③参见Goldberg和Hellerstein (2007)以及Nakamura (2007)。
①参见Woo，1984; Hooper、Mann，1989；
①参见李东平（2008）：“近年中国贸易顺差虚假贸易程度及其对货币政策的影响分析”，《国际经济评论》，第5~6期；王志浩（2006）：“中国贸易：百慕大三角洲，计算方法问题，还是外汇流入？”，《渣打银行报告》；张明，徐以升（2008）：“全口径测算中国当前的热钱规模”，中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中工作论文No.0814。
①参见Knetter和Goldberg(1989)
①参见McCarthy(2000)
②参见Choudhri，Farquee和Hakura(2005)
①参见Michael M. Knetter (1989)“Price Discrimination by U.S. and German Exporters”, the American EconomicReview, Vol.79, No.1(Mar.,1989), pp.202对该问题的详细讨论。
②参见Froot和Klemperer（1989），Parsley（1995），Goldberg和Knetter (1997)
①参见卢峰（2004）
②参见Ghosh,A.和R.S. Rajan (2007)
③参见Devereux和Engel(2001)
②参见feenstra(1989); Campa and Goldberg(2004)
①参见Knetter和Goldberg(1989)
②参见McCathy(2000)
③参见Choudhri，Farquee和Hakura(2005)
③参见Melitz(2003)。
④参见Bernard&Jensen(2004), Arnold&Hussinger (2005),Aw, Roberts and Winston(2007)以及Kasahara&Rodrigue(2008)。
⑤参见李春顶（2009，2010）。
①参见IMF.2012. Regional Economic Outlook:Asia and Pacific-Managing Spillovers andAdvancing EconomicRebalancing：36.
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