人民币升值对出口商品价格传递效应及应对策略研究
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摘要
从中国2005年7月21日人民币汇率制度实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节，有管理的浮动汇率制度以来，人民币汇率呈现双向波动，长期升值的趋势。在人民币持续升值的七年多的时间内，中国总体还是分行业的贸易收支顺差较大状况并没有逆转，某些行业贸易顺差还有不断增加的趋势，特别是我国机电产品、化学工业产品等出口增长上升趋势明显。总的来看，中国贸易结构不断改善，但不同类别行业发展速度存在差异。传统的国际收支理论无法解释这种现象。本文利用汇率不完全传递理论考察不同出口行业特殊的市场结构和产业组织结构以及企业微观定价行为来进行分析，以期得到人民币升值对中国出口商品价格的传导效应及其原因。为出口企业转嫁汇率风险、提高竞争力提出应对措施，同时为中国的汇率政策、出口贸易战略、经济增长方式以及货币政策提出指导性的政策建议。
本文基于HS商品分类下12类主要制造业商品从2005年7月到2011年12月的数据，利用面板数据模型，实证检验了人民币汇率变动对不同行业出口商品价格传递弹性的差异。总体而言，在人民币升值期间，各行业的汇率传递效应是不完全的，出口商都通过降低本币出口价格吸收了一部分汇率变动。分行业来看，汇率对传统的劳动密集型产品出口价格传递弹性较小，汇率对我国主要资本技术含量较高的制造业类产品出口价格传递弹性较大。在进一步考虑汇率及技术创新会降低生产成本影响因素后，发现大部分出口产品汇率弹性减小。
基于理论与实证的研究基础，结合中国不同行业的实际情况，本文从出口产品的市场势力、对国外市场的依赖程度、出口产品竞争优势多方面探讨了人民币汇率不完全传递的原因。在此基础上，本文提出我国出口企业在转嫁汇率风险能力较低的情况下，通过增加原材料进口、提高市场集中度、增强技术创新能力减少成本是可行的措施。从根本上来说，只有进一步完善人民币汇率形成机制，调整我国出口贸易战略，转变我国的经济增长方式，包括通过有效提高内需、转变高投入、高消耗增长方式、增强自主创新能力，提高经济增长的质量和效益等，才能实现我国内外经济的平衡发展。
China begins to implement management floating exchange rate regime based onmarket supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies since July21,2005.RMB exchange rate presents the two-way volatility, long-term appreciation trend. Duringmore than seven years of RMB continued appreciation, Chinese trade surplus in thegeneral or sub-industry is not reversed. Some industry’s trade surplus presents a risingtrend. Especially China’s exports growth of machinery and electronic products, chemicalproducts appear obvious upward trend. Overall, China’s trade structure continues toimprove, but the development pace of different industry is difference. The traditionaltheory of international payments can not explain the phenomenon. The dissertationanalyses the phenomenon from the market structure and industrial organization ofdifferent export industry based on incomplete pass-through theory，in order to concludeeffect of RMB appreciation pass-through into export price and its reason. Thedissertation proposes countermeasures for export enterprises transferring exchange raterisk and improving competitiveness. At the same time, put forwards concerning guidingsuggestion for China’s exchange rate policy, export strategy, economic growth andmonetary policy.
The dissertation is based on the12main mamufacturing industry data under the HScommodity classification from July2005to December2011. It tests differences inflexibility of RMB exchange rate change to export price using panel data model. Overall,the effect of RMB appreciation pass-through into export price in incomplete. Price ofexport absorbs a large part of exchange rate movemengt by exporters lowering the localcurrency prices. From specific industries, the flexibility of exchange rate pass through totraditional labor-intensive commodities is less comparing with capita-intensivecommdities. Further considering the influence of exchange rate and technology onproduction cost, the flexibility of exchange rate pass through to majority of exportcommodities is reduced.
Based on the theoretical and empirical research, considering the actual situation of the different industries, the dissertation discusses the reason of incomplete pass through frommany aspects, such as export commodities’ market forces, the extent of dependence onforeign market, export commodities’ competitive advantages. Base on the above analysis,under the low capability of transferring exchange rate risk, reducing production cost forexport enterprises is reliable by increasing imports of raw materials, increasing marketconcentration, enhance the technological innovation capability. From a long time, theappreciation of the RMB has a prominent role in readjustment of industrial structure andtrade structure in China. Fundamentally, only further improving RMB exchange rateformation mechanism, adjusting export trade strategy, changing the mode of economicgrowth including increasing domestic demand effectively, transforming the productionmode of high investment and high consumption, enhancing the capability of independentinnovation, improving the quality and efficiency of economic gowth, and so on, canachieve a balanced development of the economy at home and abroad.
本文基于HS商品分类下12类主要制造业商品从2005年7月到2011年12月的数据，利用面板数据模型，实证检验了人民币汇率变动对不同行业出口商品价格传递弹性的差异。总体而言，在人民币升值期间，各行业的汇率传递效应是不完全的，出口商都通过降低本币出口价格吸收了一部分汇率变动。分行业来看，汇率对传统的劳动密集型产品出口价格传递弹性较小，汇率对我国主要资本技术含量较高的制造业类产品出口价格传递弹性较大。在进一步考虑汇率及技术创新会降低生产成本影响因素后，发现大部分出口产品汇率弹性减小。
基于理论与实证的研究基础，结合中国不同行业的实际情况，本文从出口产品的市场势力、对国外市场的依赖程度、出口产品竞争优势多方面探讨了人民币汇率不完全传递的原因。在此基础上，本文提出我国出口企业在转嫁汇率风险能力较低的情况下，通过增加原材料进口、提高市场集中度、增强技术创新能力减少成本是可行的措施。从根本上来说，只有进一步完善人民币汇率形成机制，调整我国出口贸易战略，转变我国的经济增长方式，包括通过有效提高内需、转变高投入、高消耗增长方式、增强自主创新能力，提高经济增长的质量和效益等，才能实现我国内外经济的平衡发展。
China begins to implement management floating exchange rate regime based onmarket supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies since July21,2005.RMB exchange rate presents the two-way volatility, long-term appreciation trend. Duringmore than seven years of RMB continued appreciation, Chinese trade surplus in thegeneral or sub-industry is not reversed. Some industry’s trade surplus presents a risingtrend. Especially China’s exports growth of machinery and electronic products, chemicalproducts appear obvious upward trend. Overall, China’s trade structure continues toimprove, but the development pace of different industry is difference. The traditionaltheory of international payments can not explain the phenomenon. The dissertationanalyses the phenomenon from the market structure and industrial organization ofdifferent export industry based on incomplete pass-through theory，in order to concludeeffect of RMB appreciation pass-through into export price and its reason. Thedissertation proposes countermeasures for export enterprises transferring exchange raterisk and improving competitiveness. At the same time, put forwards concerning guidingsuggestion for China’s exchange rate policy, export strategy, economic growth andmonetary policy.
The dissertation is based on the12main mamufacturing industry data under the HScommodity classification from July2005to December2011. It tests differences inflexibility of RMB exchange rate change to export price using panel data model. Overall,the effect of RMB appreciation pass-through into export price in incomplete. Price ofexport absorbs a large part of exchange rate movemengt by exporters lowering the localcurrency prices. From specific industries, the flexibility of exchange rate pass through totraditional labor-intensive commodities is less comparing with capita-intensivecommdities. Further considering the influence of exchange rate and technology onproduction cost, the flexibility of exchange rate pass through to majority of exportcommodities is reduced.
Based on the theoretical and empirical research, considering the actual situation of the different industries, the dissertation discusses the reason of incomplete pass through frommany aspects, such as export commodities’ market forces, the extent of dependence onforeign market, export commodities’ competitive advantages. Base on the above analysis,under the low capability of transferring exchange rate risk, reducing production cost forexport enterprises is reliable by increasing imports of raw materials, increasing marketconcentration, enhance the technological innovation capability. From a long time, theappreciation of the RMB has a prominent role in readjustment of industrial structure andtrade structure in China. Fundamentally, only further improving RMB exchange rateformation mechanism, adjusting export trade strategy, changing the mode of economicgrowth including increasing domestic demand effectively, transforming the productionmode of high investment and high consumption, enhancing the capability of independentinnovation, improving the quality and efficiency of economic gowth, and so on, canachieve a balanced development of the economy at home and abroad.
引文
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