汇率变动、汇率传递和企业行为研究
摘要
人民币从2005年7月21日汇率形成机制改革迄今已经过去了三年有余。人民币汇率水平的改变迫使中国出口型企业对其行为，包括出口和投资等方面的行为进行调整以求得生存与发展。本文从汇率传递的角度探讨人民币升值与出口型企业的出口、投资行为问题。
本文采取理论与实证相结合的分析方法，首先分析人民币升值对国内外经济环境的影响，其中包括对中国传统出口市场和新开发的出口市场的经济影响以及中国企业国内生产价格、出口商品定价和汇率风险等方面的影响。
其次，本文论述了在新的宏观经济环境下出口型企业的出口定价行为模式。出口企业的出口行为定位于不完全竞争经济环境下的不同目标函数的行为模式。之所以不同，是因为企业的控制模式不同。不管是何种目标函数，归根结底都是围绕着利润这个中轴线在转动，无非是实现的手段、过程、时限等方面的不同。
在分析不同的出口定价行为时，本文讨论了出口企业在不同时期不同目标函数下从古诺竞争过渡到伯川德竞争，提出了这个竞争模式的逻辑关系以及企业之间采取不同的竞争模式，分析了不同市场结构下的竞争强度与价格控制力度之间的负相关关系。笔者发现，在不完全竞争经济模式下，垄断竞争和寡头竞争对价格控制最为复杂，其中寡头竞争对价格的控制力大于垄断竞争，因为寡头竞争容易建立价格联盟关系。以此，推导出寡头竞争的市场结构是定价能力最强的，它的汇率传递程度也是最高的。另一个发现就是，市场一体化程度越高定价的能力也就越强，因为市场一体化使得资源得到了有效的配置，企业的经营成本包括沉淀成本和菜单成本会越低直至达到可以忽略的程度。
出口定价行为是汇率传递水平的基础，而汇率传递是出口定价行为的反映。因此，在对企业定价行为进行理论分析之后，本文对汇率的各种传递现象进行逐一的论述和模型化分析，主要是从数理的角度分析出口汇率完全传递、不完全传递、汇率完全不传递、负传递和汇率超传递的存在环境和表现形式。
本文的重点在于提出汇率超传递的现象。这是本论文的主要创新。笔者从企业不同控制模式出发，以托宾的风险规避下资产组合选择理论为基础，提出汇率超传递问题。通过建立汇率的超传递模型并对超传递现象进行数理推导和分析，推导出汇率超传递形成的原因、实现的条件和产生的传递效应等结论，同时也指出了汇率超传递的对称性与对经济整体冲击的危害性等。
在理论分析之后，本文对汇率传递特别是超传递进行了实证分析。本文的实证分析以福建省的出口型企业数据为分析基础。在实证分析中，根据不同控制模式的企业出口商品结构、生产成本、利润构成等一系列的数据进行计量分析，验证汇率传递理论中的超传递现象。通过实证，证明了独占式外资企业利用出口行为把境外资金引入国内进行投资活动，实现汇率超传递。其结果是此类企业在出口价格上游离于汇率变动，获取汇率变动条件下的超额回报。
最后是本文的总结。本文总结了汇率传递的研究结果并提出了汇率超传递对中国经济整体的影响以及政策建议。在相关结论中，笔者提出了人民币升值以及汇率传递水平必然影响国家的出口。在出口导向型经济特征显著的中国，在汇率传递水平较低的情况下出口的较大幅度的减少不利于外向型经济的健康发展。因此建议，在现有的汇率传递水平下，人民币汇率变动首先要考虑到出口型企业的承受力，特别是民族出口型企业的产业结构和产品结构调整与升级是否能够通过汇率水平的变动达到预期目标。此外，人民币升值幅度和频率必须考虑到各种控制模式的外向型行为对汇率政策的反效应，否则，汇率变动不仅不会给本国经济带来好处，反而可能被一些不良外资企业所利用，扰乱中国的金融和经济秩序，威胁中国经济的健康发展。本文还指出，提高出口型企业的汇率传递水平是一个系统工程，需要政府、企业和银行等多部门和行业的共同努力。结论部分还指出了本论文存在的不足并提出了今后努力的方向。由于篇幅的限制，本文没有对一些涉及汇率传递程度的重要行为进行分析，比如：企业对汇率变动的心理预期行为、企业的进口行为等。本文把它们作为今后进一步深入研究汇率传递问题的努力方向。
More than 3 years have passed since the RMB overnight appreciation in July 21,2005.The unexpected change in the RMB exchange level has forced theforeign-oriented enterprises in China to change their operation behavior,including theexport and investment behaviors so as to seek survival and development in thechanging economic environment.This paper intends to probe into the RMBappreciation's effects on the changes of the out-going enterprises' export andinvestment from the point of foreign exchange rate pass-through.
The analysis integrates the theoretical and empirical methodologies throughout thewhole paper.The analysis is arranged as following:
Firstly,the paper begins with the RMB appreciation's effects both on the economicenvironments of China's traditional export target markets and the newly-developedexport markets and the China's out-going enterprises' production costs and foreignexchange risks at home as well.
Secondly,the paper discusses the export pricing behaviors of the enterprises underthe new macro-economic environment.The export models describe the enterprises'different behaviors with different target functions under non-complete competitiveeconomic environment.The differences arise from different control models of theenterprises.No matter what target function is,benefit is the only aim the enterprisesintend to achieve,so all the methods,procedures and timing employed arepurpose-oriented.
In our analyzing different pricing behaviors,the paper discusses how the enterprisescompete from Cournot to Bertrand under changing target functions in different timingperiods,pointing out the transition's logical relationship and different competitivemodels the enterprises take.The market structure,being the key factor effecting thecompetition,is also discussed,the focus of the discussion is mainly on the negativecorrelation between the intensiveness of competition and price control.It is found thatunder the non-complete competition economic environment,the price control mechanism is most complicated under monopolistic competition and oligopolycompetition.Under oligopoly competition,the price control is more tensed than thatunder monopolistic competition,because price coalition is easier to be formed.Accordingly,the foreign exchange rate pass-through is highest under oligopolycompetition.The result of the market structure's theoretical analysis shows that themore integrated the market structure is,the stronger the pricing control is.The reasonis that the more integrated the market structure is,the more effective the resources canbe relocated,and the operation costs including the menu cost and sunk cost becomelower than ever or are so low as to be neglected.
Export pricing behavior is the base of the foreign exchange rate pass-through,andthe level of the pass-through is the reflection of the pricing behavior.As a logic result,different models are formed to describe the different levels of the pass-through,including complete pass-through,non-complete pass-through,completely nopass-through,negative pass-through and super pass-through.
The major creative theoretical point of the paper is the super pass-through.Based onTobin's theory of asset portfolio without risks and the author,the new theory isanalyzed beginning with the different enterprises' control models to find out the causesof the super pass-through,the preconditions for its realization and its effects as well.The paper also points out the symmetric features of the pass-through and theaftermaths of its impact on economy.
Based on the findings of the theoretical analysis,empirical analysis is followed up toprove the soundness of the theory.By our using the first-hand data from the leadingout-going enterprises in Fujian Province,covering the export product structure,production cost and benefit's structure,a set of econometric models are used to test thetheory of the foreign exchange rate super pass-through in export.The result of theempirical study shows that the foreign owned enterprises (FOEs) with soleproprietorship or the Sino-foreign joint-ventures actually controlled by foreigninvestors are more likely to manipulate the export pricing to bring extra foreign capital,i.e.,hot money,into China to seek arbitrage in capital market and real estate market forhigher return.The behavior separates the export pricing from the effects of foreign exchange rate change to realize the super pass-through.
The findings of the theory of the foreign exchange rate super pass-through show thatthe appreciation of RMB may be manipulated by ill-minded FOEs and some Chineseprivate enterprises to threaten the soundness of China's economy.The centralgovernment's aim to adjust China's economic structure from labor-driven to hi-techdriven may not be realized by using the monetary tools.Based on the above findings,the paper suggests that the policy makers of Chinese government should,first of all,consider how to effectively stop the arbitrage of the FOEs and keep the sustainabilityof the Chinese investment enterprises (CIEs) in mind when launching foreignexchange rate reform.Otherwise,the CIEs without being ready for the rigid changewill gradually lose their competitive advantages and the national economy will lose itsbackbone accordingly.
There exist several shortcomings in the paper,for instances,several importantfactors like enterprise's psychological forecasts of RMB exchange rate's change andimport behaviors,which are decisive in the study of the foreign exchange ratepass-through,are not touched.All these are sure to be the fields for further study in thefuture.
本文采取理论与实证相结合的分析方法，首先分析人民币升值对国内外经济环境的影响，其中包括对中国传统出口市场和新开发的出口市场的经济影响以及中国企业国内生产价格、出口商品定价和汇率风险等方面的影响。
其次，本文论述了在新的宏观经济环境下出口型企业的出口定价行为模式。出口企业的出口行为定位于不完全竞争经济环境下的不同目标函数的行为模式。之所以不同，是因为企业的控制模式不同。不管是何种目标函数，归根结底都是围绕着利润这个中轴线在转动，无非是实现的手段、过程、时限等方面的不同。
在分析不同的出口定价行为时，本文讨论了出口企业在不同时期不同目标函数下从古诺竞争过渡到伯川德竞争，提出了这个竞争模式的逻辑关系以及企业之间采取不同的竞争模式，分析了不同市场结构下的竞争强度与价格控制力度之间的负相关关系。笔者发现，在不完全竞争经济模式下，垄断竞争和寡头竞争对价格控制最为复杂，其中寡头竞争对价格的控制力大于垄断竞争，因为寡头竞争容易建立价格联盟关系。以此，推导出寡头竞争的市场结构是定价能力最强的，它的汇率传递程度也是最高的。另一个发现就是，市场一体化程度越高定价的能力也就越强，因为市场一体化使得资源得到了有效的配置，企业的经营成本包括沉淀成本和菜单成本会越低直至达到可以忽略的程度。
出口定价行为是汇率传递水平的基础，而汇率传递是出口定价行为的反映。因此，在对企业定价行为进行理论分析之后，本文对汇率的各种传递现象进行逐一的论述和模型化分析，主要是从数理的角度分析出口汇率完全传递、不完全传递、汇率完全不传递、负传递和汇率超传递的存在环境和表现形式。
本文的重点在于提出汇率超传递的现象。这是本论文的主要创新。笔者从企业不同控制模式出发，以托宾的风险规避下资产组合选择理论为基础，提出汇率超传递问题。通过建立汇率的超传递模型并对超传递现象进行数理推导和分析，推导出汇率超传递形成的原因、实现的条件和产生的传递效应等结论，同时也指出了汇率超传递的对称性与对经济整体冲击的危害性等。
在理论分析之后，本文对汇率传递特别是超传递进行了实证分析。本文的实证分析以福建省的出口型企业数据为分析基础。在实证分析中，根据不同控制模式的企业出口商品结构、生产成本、利润构成等一系列的数据进行计量分析，验证汇率传递理论中的超传递现象。通过实证，证明了独占式外资企业利用出口行为把境外资金引入国内进行投资活动，实现汇率超传递。其结果是此类企业在出口价格上游离于汇率变动，获取汇率变动条件下的超额回报。
最后是本文的总结。本文总结了汇率传递的研究结果并提出了汇率超传递对中国经济整体的影响以及政策建议。在相关结论中，笔者提出了人民币升值以及汇率传递水平必然影响国家的出口。在出口导向型经济特征显著的中国，在汇率传递水平较低的情况下出口的较大幅度的减少不利于外向型经济的健康发展。因此建议，在现有的汇率传递水平下，人民币汇率变动首先要考虑到出口型企业的承受力，特别是民族出口型企业的产业结构和产品结构调整与升级是否能够通过汇率水平的变动达到预期目标。此外，人民币升值幅度和频率必须考虑到各种控制模式的外向型行为对汇率政策的反效应，否则，汇率变动不仅不会给本国经济带来好处，反而可能被一些不良外资企业所利用，扰乱中国的金融和经济秩序，威胁中国经济的健康发展。本文还指出，提高出口型企业的汇率传递水平是一个系统工程，需要政府、企业和银行等多部门和行业的共同努力。结论部分还指出了本论文存在的不足并提出了今后努力的方向。由于篇幅的限制，本文没有对一些涉及汇率传递程度的重要行为进行分析，比如：企业对汇率变动的心理预期行为、企业的进口行为等。本文把它们作为今后进一步深入研究汇率传递问题的努力方向。
More than 3 years have passed since the RMB overnight appreciation in July 21,2005.The unexpected change in the RMB exchange level has forced theforeign-oriented enterprises in China to change their operation behavior,including theexport and investment behaviors so as to seek survival and development in thechanging economic environment.This paper intends to probe into the RMBappreciation's effects on the changes of the out-going enterprises' export andinvestment from the point of foreign exchange rate pass-through.
The analysis integrates the theoretical and empirical methodologies throughout thewhole paper.The analysis is arranged as following:
Firstly,the paper begins with the RMB appreciation's effects both on the economicenvironments of China's traditional export target markets and the newly-developedexport markets and the China's out-going enterprises' production costs and foreignexchange risks at home as well.
Secondly,the paper discusses the export pricing behaviors of the enterprises underthe new macro-economic environment.The export models describe the enterprises'different behaviors with different target functions under non-complete competitiveeconomic environment.The differences arise from different control models of theenterprises.No matter what target function is,benefit is the only aim the enterprisesintend to achieve,so all the methods,procedures and timing employed arepurpose-oriented.
In our analyzing different pricing behaviors,the paper discusses how the enterprisescompete from Cournot to Bertrand under changing target functions in different timingperiods,pointing out the transition's logical relationship and different competitivemodels the enterprises take.The market structure,being the key factor effecting thecompetition,is also discussed,the focus of the discussion is mainly on the negativecorrelation between the intensiveness of competition and price control.It is found thatunder the non-complete competition economic environment,the price control mechanism is most complicated under monopolistic competition and oligopolycompetition.Under oligopoly competition,the price control is more tensed than thatunder monopolistic competition,because price coalition is easier to be formed.Accordingly,the foreign exchange rate pass-through is highest under oligopolycompetition.The result of the market structure's theoretical analysis shows that themore integrated the market structure is,the stronger the pricing control is.The reasonis that the more integrated the market structure is,the more effective the resources canbe relocated,and the operation costs including the menu cost and sunk cost becomelower than ever or are so low as to be neglected.
Export pricing behavior is the base of the foreign exchange rate pass-through,andthe level of the pass-through is the reflection of the pricing behavior.As a logic result,different models are formed to describe the different levels of the pass-through,including complete pass-through,non-complete pass-through,completely nopass-through,negative pass-through and super pass-through.
The major creative theoretical point of the paper is the super pass-through.Based onTobin's theory of asset portfolio without risks and the author,the new theory isanalyzed beginning with the different enterprises' control models to find out the causesof the super pass-through,the preconditions for its realization and its effects as well.The paper also points out the symmetric features of the pass-through and theaftermaths of its impact on economy.
Based on the findings of the theoretical analysis,empirical analysis is followed up toprove the soundness of the theory.By our using the first-hand data from the leadingout-going enterprises in Fujian Province,covering the export product structure,production cost and benefit's structure,a set of econometric models are used to test thetheory of the foreign exchange rate super pass-through in export.The result of theempirical study shows that the foreign owned enterprises (FOEs) with soleproprietorship or the Sino-foreign joint-ventures actually controlled by foreigninvestors are more likely to manipulate the export pricing to bring extra foreign capital,i.e.,hot money,into China to seek arbitrage in capital market and real estate market forhigher return.The behavior separates the export pricing from the effects of foreign exchange rate change to realize the super pass-through.
The findings of the theory of the foreign exchange rate super pass-through show thatthe appreciation of RMB may be manipulated by ill-minded FOEs and some Chineseprivate enterprises to threaten the soundness of China's economy.The centralgovernment's aim to adjust China's economic structure from labor-driven to hi-techdriven may not be realized by using the monetary tools.Based on the above findings,the paper suggests that the policy makers of Chinese government should,first of all,consider how to effectively stop the arbitrage of the FOEs and keep the sustainabilityof the Chinese investment enterprises (CIEs) in mind when launching foreignexchange rate reform.Otherwise,the CIEs without being ready for the rigid changewill gradually lose their competitive advantages and the national economy will lose itsbackbone accordingly.
There exist several shortcomings in the paper,for instances,several importantfactors like enterprise's psychological forecasts of RMB exchange rate's change andimport behaviors,which are decisive in the study of the foreign exchange ratepass-through,are not touched.All these are sure to be the fields for further study in thefuture.
引文
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