中国农产品出口市场结构及其优化研究
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摘要
针对我国商品出口市场过于集中于美、日、欧等发达国家,从而使我国的商品出口风险过于集中的状况,我国在上世纪90年代就制定了旨在优化我国出口市场结构的“出口市场多元化战略”。“多样性导致稳定性”是生态学中一条重要的原理,该原理蕴含着深刻的科学思想,具有普遍意义,对许多领域具有重要启示。而出口市场多元化的宗旨,恰与该原理不谋而合。相对于总体出口而言,我国农产品出口的市场集中程度更高,因此出口市场结构优化的压力也更大。本文首先从我国农产品出口市场结构和世界进口市场结构两个方面评价和分析了我国农产品出口市场结构存在的问题,在简单介绍贸易引力模型的基础上,通过构建反映我国农产品出口市场结构的贸易引力模型,分析了我国农产品出口市场结构的影响因素,然后分别从出口份额潜力、出口依赖程度、世界进口份额以及农产品比较优势等四个方面讨论了我国农产品出口市场结构的优化问题。
本文的创新之处：
(1)为了衡量我国农产品的出口市场结构是否与世界农产品的进口市场结构相匹配,本文使用斯皮尔曼(Spearman)秩相关的方法来对其进行研究。斯皮尔曼秩相关是利用斯皮尔曼秩相关系数测定变量间等级相关程度的一种非参数统计相关分析方法,用于两个至少是定序尺度测量的样本问相关程度的测定。本文用斯皮尔曼秩相关系数表示农产品出口市场结构与世界农产品进口市场结构的匹配性指数,简称农产品出口的匹配性指数,并对其进行时间序列的分析和国际间的比较。
(2)本文还扩大了收益性结构变动指数和劳伦斯指数的应用范围。收益性结构变动指数本来是用来研究一国的出口商品结构与世界进口商品结构变动是否一致的工具,是衡量出口国商品生产对世界商品需求变化是否敏感的一个指标。通过改变收益性结构变动指数各组成部分的含义,本文使用这一指数检验了我国农产品出口市场结构与世界进口市场结构的变动是否一致,改变后的收益性结构变动指数成为衡量出口国出口方向或营销方向对进口市场的份额变化是否敏感的一个指标。劳伦斯指数本来也是衡量一国商品贸易结构变化的指数,本文也它来衡量我国农产品出口市场结构的变化幅度。
(3)本文通过构建反映我国农产品出口市场结构的贸易引力模型来分析我国农产品出口市场结构的影响因素并测算我国农产品对各出口市场的出口份额潜力,并结合出口依赖系数的高低与世界农产品进口市场结构以及农产品比较优势模式,分析我国农产品出口市场结构的优化。这种测算出口潜力和寻找出口市场的方法与传统的仅使用贸易强度指数、贸易互补性指数的方法有很大的不同。
本文的不足
(1)收益性结构变动指数是一个以我国农产品出口份额为权数的加权平均数,我们知道计算加权平均数时,其权数之和应等于1,但是由于本文只分析了我国的部分出口市场,其出口份额累计之和并不等于1,更重要的是不同年份我国对这些出口市场的累计份额可能也不一样,这样就影响了收益性结构变动指数在年度之间的可比性。在国际比较上这个问题可能更加严重,因为不同的分析主体国家对本文所选择的样本国家出口的份额差别更大,这也影响了收益性结构变动指数在国家之间的可比性。
(2)本文构建的是反映我国所有农产品出口市场结构的贸易引力模型,并运用这一模型测算出口份额潜力、寻找目标市场,但是农产品又分为好多种,这样的模型可能对我国出口比重较大的农产品有相对较好的预测能力,而对相对来说出口比重较小的农产品的预测能力则会有所降低。
The fact that the developed countries like the USA, Japan and European countries are China's main export markets puts China's foreign trade at a high risk. In view of this, Chinese government has long since issued the market diversification strategy to optimize the export market structure. Diversity results in stability. As one of the underlying principle in bionomics, it embodies a universal scientific thought and gives revelations in many fields. So it is in the policy of market diversification strategy. For its gross export, the present China's agricultural export status implies a high market concentration; therefore a call for optimization is even more stressful.
The innovations of this paper:
(1)In order to measure if China's farm produce export market structure matches with that of the world, this paper uses Spearman's rank correlation approach to research. Spearman's rank correlation uses of the Spearman rank correlation coefficient measured variable degree of correlation between the levels of a non-parametric statistical analysis method for at least two measurement scales sequencing of the samples of the determination of the degree of inter-related. In this paper, the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient stands for the matching index of the exports of agricultural products market structure and market structure in the world imports of agricultural products, i.e. the matching index of the export of agricultural products and its analysis of time series and international comparisons.
In addition, the article also expanded the income of changes in the structure of the index and the index of Lawrence's application. Changes in the structure of the profitability index is used to study a country's export structure with the World change in the structure of the imported goods are the same tools, which is to measure if commodity-exporting countries is sensitive to the world production of demanded goods. Profitability by changing the structure of the various components of the index, this paper takes it as an index to test if the market structure of China's agricultural products exports is sensitive to the world market structure changes. Laurence index also would have to measure a country's merchandise trade structure changes, and this paper also takes it to measure the change rate of China's exports of agricultural products market.
(2)By building a reflection of China's farm produce export volume of trade gravity model to estimate China's agricultural products export potential, combined with coefficient dependent index, this paper divides China's agricultural export market into low-risk, high-potential market, high-risk high-potential market, low-risk high-potential market with low risk and low-potential market. This calculation of export potential and finding a way to export markets is very different from the use of traditional trade intensity index, and trade complementarities index methods, and the two can complement each other.
The shortages of this paper:
(1)Changes in the structure of the profitability index is the weighted average number based on a share of China's agricultural exports. We know that when calculating the weighted average, its weighting should be one, but due to this paper only analyzes part of our of the export market, its total export share is not one. More importantly, China's exports to these markets may not be the same cumulative share in different years. So it impacts the comparability of the index of earning change structure in different years. In the international comparison this issue may be more serious, because the export share of different sample countries may enjoy an even greater gap, which also affects the comparability between different countries in the calculation of changing index of earnings structure.
(2)Construction of this article is a trade gravity model to reflect all of China's farm produce export volume, and use the model to estimate export potential and find the target market, but agricultural products are various, such a model may forecast well China's important export produce, but not those less important ones. This paper does not distinguish them, and uses the same model to forecast the export potential of meat products, fruits, vegetables and aquatic products.
本文的创新之处：
(1)为了衡量我国农产品的出口市场结构是否与世界农产品的进口市场结构相匹配,本文使用斯皮尔曼(Spearman)秩相关的方法来对其进行研究。斯皮尔曼秩相关是利用斯皮尔曼秩相关系数测定变量间等级相关程度的一种非参数统计相关分析方法,用于两个至少是定序尺度测量的样本问相关程度的测定。本文用斯皮尔曼秩相关系数表示农产品出口市场结构与世界农产品进口市场结构的匹配性指数,简称农产品出口的匹配性指数,并对其进行时间序列的分析和国际间的比较。
(2)本文还扩大了收益性结构变动指数和劳伦斯指数的应用范围。收益性结构变动指数本来是用来研究一国的出口商品结构与世界进口商品结构变动是否一致的工具,是衡量出口国商品生产对世界商品需求变化是否敏感的一个指标。通过改变收益性结构变动指数各组成部分的含义,本文使用这一指数检验了我国农产品出口市场结构与世界进口市场结构的变动是否一致,改变后的收益性结构变动指数成为衡量出口国出口方向或营销方向对进口市场的份额变化是否敏感的一个指标。劳伦斯指数本来也是衡量一国商品贸易结构变化的指数,本文也它来衡量我国农产品出口市场结构的变化幅度。
(3)本文通过构建反映我国农产品出口市场结构的贸易引力模型来分析我国农产品出口市场结构的影响因素并测算我国农产品对各出口市场的出口份额潜力,并结合出口依赖系数的高低与世界农产品进口市场结构以及农产品比较优势模式,分析我国农产品出口市场结构的优化。这种测算出口潜力和寻找出口市场的方法与传统的仅使用贸易强度指数、贸易互补性指数的方法有很大的不同。
本文的不足
(1)收益性结构变动指数是一个以我国农产品出口份额为权数的加权平均数,我们知道计算加权平均数时,其权数之和应等于1,但是由于本文只分析了我国的部分出口市场,其出口份额累计之和并不等于1,更重要的是不同年份我国对这些出口市场的累计份额可能也不一样,这样就影响了收益性结构变动指数在年度之间的可比性。在国际比较上这个问题可能更加严重,因为不同的分析主体国家对本文所选择的样本国家出口的份额差别更大,这也影响了收益性结构变动指数在国家之间的可比性。
(2)本文构建的是反映我国所有农产品出口市场结构的贸易引力模型,并运用这一模型测算出口份额潜力、寻找目标市场,但是农产品又分为好多种,这样的模型可能对我国出口比重较大的农产品有相对较好的预测能力,而对相对来说出口比重较小的农产品的预测能力则会有所降低。
The fact that the developed countries like the USA, Japan and European countries are China's main export markets puts China's foreign trade at a high risk. In view of this, Chinese government has long since issued the market diversification strategy to optimize the export market structure. Diversity results in stability. As one of the underlying principle in bionomics, it embodies a universal scientific thought and gives revelations in many fields. So it is in the policy of market diversification strategy. For its gross export, the present China's agricultural export status implies a high market concentration; therefore a call for optimization is even more stressful.
The innovations of this paper:
(1)In order to measure if China's farm produce export market structure matches with that of the world, this paper uses Spearman's rank correlation approach to research. Spearman's rank correlation uses of the Spearman rank correlation coefficient measured variable degree of correlation between the levels of a non-parametric statistical analysis method for at least two measurement scales sequencing of the samples of the determination of the degree of inter-related. In this paper, the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient stands for the matching index of the exports of agricultural products market structure and market structure in the world imports of agricultural products, i.e. the matching index of the export of agricultural products and its analysis of time series and international comparisons.
In addition, the article also expanded the income of changes in the structure of the index and the index of Lawrence's application. Changes in the structure of the profitability index is used to study a country's export structure with the World change in the structure of the imported goods are the same tools, which is to measure if commodity-exporting countries is sensitive to the world production of demanded goods. Profitability by changing the structure of the various components of the index, this paper takes it as an index to test if the market structure of China's agricultural products exports is sensitive to the world market structure changes. Laurence index also would have to measure a country's merchandise trade structure changes, and this paper also takes it to measure the change rate of China's exports of agricultural products market.
(2)By building a reflection of China's farm produce export volume of trade gravity model to estimate China's agricultural products export potential, combined with coefficient dependent index, this paper divides China's agricultural export market into low-risk, high-potential market, high-risk high-potential market, low-risk high-potential market with low risk and low-potential market. This calculation of export potential and finding a way to export markets is very different from the use of traditional trade intensity index, and trade complementarities index methods, and the two can complement each other.
The shortages of this paper:
(1)Changes in the structure of the profitability index is the weighted average number based on a share of China's agricultural exports. We know that when calculating the weighted average, its weighting should be one, but due to this paper only analyzes part of our of the export market, its total export share is not one. More importantly, China's exports to these markets may not be the same cumulative share in different years. So it impacts the comparability of the index of earning change structure in different years. In the international comparison this issue may be more serious, because the export share of different sample countries may enjoy an even greater gap, which also affects the comparability between different countries in the calculation of changing index of earnings structure.
(2)Construction of this article is a trade gravity model to reflect all of China's farm produce export volume, and use the model to estimate export potential and find the target market, but agricultural products are various, such a model may forecast well China's important export produce, but not those less important ones. This paper does not distinguish them, and uses the same model to forecast the export potential of meat products, fruits, vegetables and aquatic products.
引文
①范金,郑庆武,梅娟.应用产业经济学[M].经济管理出版社,2004年版第300页。
①该公式转引自魏浩.中国进出口地区结构及其对称性问题的实证研究[J].财贸经济,2007(5)：11-32.
①张德存.统计学[M].北京：科学出版社,2004：226-230.
①在计算中国和相关国家的农产品出口市场结构与世界农产品进口市场结构的匹配性指数时,只选择中国和相关国家的前10大出口市场作为样本国家进行分析。当然,不同年份的前10大出口市场是不一样的。
①美洲自由贸易区谈判最早是1994年在美国的迈阿密举行,参加国有美国和其他33个美洲国家。
②北美自由贸易区正式实施于1994年1月1日,参加国是美国、加拿大和墨西哥。
③南美共同市场正式实施于1991年11月29日,参加国是阿根廷、巴西、巴拉圭和乌拉圭。
①美国学者乔治·弗里德曼和梅雷迪思·勒巴德曾使用这种方法分析了日本进口矿物原料的依赖性,《下一次日美战争》,何力翻译,新华出版社1992年出版,第172-173页；傅龙波、钟甫宁和徐志刚等也使用该方法分析了我国粮食进口的依赖性,《管理世界》,2001年第3期,第135-140页。
②魏浩.中国进出口地区结构及其对称性问题的实证研究[J].财贸经济,2007(5),第11—17页.作者在该文中首次提出了贸易平衡指数的概念和计算公式,并运用该指数分析了中国对各贸易伙伴的总体贸易依赖程度。
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①该公式转引自魏浩.中国进出口地区结构及其对称性问题的实证研究[J].财贸经济,2007(5)：11-32.
①张德存.统计学[M].北京：科学出版社,2004：226-230.
①在计算中国和相关国家的农产品出口市场结构与世界农产品进口市场结构的匹配性指数时,只选择中国和相关国家的前10大出口市场作为样本国家进行分析。当然,不同年份的前10大出口市场是不一样的。
①美洲自由贸易区谈判最早是1994年在美国的迈阿密举行,参加国有美国和其他33个美洲国家。
②北美自由贸易区正式实施于1994年1月1日,参加国是美国、加拿大和墨西哥。
③南美共同市场正式实施于1991年11月29日,参加国是阿根廷、巴西、巴拉圭和乌拉圭。
①美国学者乔治·弗里德曼和梅雷迪思·勒巴德曾使用这种方法分析了日本进口矿物原料的依赖性,《下一次日美战争》,何力翻译,新华出版社1992年出版,第172-173页；傅龙波、钟甫宁和徐志刚等也使用该方法分析了我国粮食进口的依赖性,《管理世界》,2001年第3期,第135-140页。
②魏浩.中国进出口地区结构及其对称性问题的实证研究[J].财贸经济,2007(5),第11—17页.作者在该文中首次提出了贸易平衡指数的概念和计算公式,并运用该指数分析了中国对各贸易伙伴的总体贸易依赖程度。
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