摘要
随着国际社会对中国碳排放量的关注,以及中国对外贸易在中国经济中的重要地位,中国国际贸易对碳量的影响已成为学者关注的焦点。本文利用投入产出模型,采用多边贸易数据计算1997-2010年贸易内涵CO_2量,研究对外贸易对中国国内CO_2排量的影响,并利用SDA分别和Divisia指数分解模型,解释了造成这种影响的原因。MRI-O模型计算结果显示对外贸易不利于我国CO_2减排量(BEET)目标的实现,有利于降低我国的碳排放强度(PTT)。本文使用SDA分解模型分解出口内含碳的影响因素,利用分解结果描述五大效应对出口内含碳影响的大小。同时,本文也使用Divisia指数对各部门的BEET进行分解,分解结果显示,对外贸易的规模效应是造成我国净内涵CO_2增加的重要原因,而各个部门的技术效应有利于我国环境质量(CO_2排量)的提高,但结构效应作用并不明显。在不牺牲经济利益情况下(不改变规模效应的前提),本文又对各部门的PTT再次做Divisia指数分解,分解结果表明技术效应有利于降低我国污染强度,结构效应影响并不统一,但通过结构效应和技术效应的“交叉”作用,可以通过对外贸易进一步降低CO_2排放强度。
With the increase of focus on the carbon emission in the international society andmore importance of international trade in the Chinese economic development. This paper studiesthe influence of foreign trade on the CO_2emission by using MRI-O model and accounts for theinfluences by using Structure Decomposition Analysis and Divisia Index decomposition. Theresults show that foreign trade can reduce CO_2emission intensity (PTT) but will increase theCO_2emission (BEET).The results of Structure Decomposition Analysis on the CO_2embodied inthe export indicates five factors can account for the increase of CO_2.Divisia IndexDecomposition into BEET from each sector show scale effect (trade surplus) is the main cause ofthe CO_2emission increase while technology effect can decrease it, and composition effect isuncertain. Also, this paper explores the driving factors of PTT by Divisia Index Decompositionto exclude the scale effect on CO_2emission. The result shows technology effect can reduce thePTT while composition scale is still uncertain, and adjusting the "cross" influence between themis effective to reduce the PTT.
引文
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