中国对外贸易对碳排量的影响以及驱动因素的实证分析
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摘要
随着国际社会对中国碳排放量的关注，以及中国对外贸易在中国经济中的重要地位，中国国际贸易对碳量的影响已成为学者关注的焦点。本文利用投入产出模型，采用多边贸易数据计算1997-2010年贸易内涵CO_2量，研究对外贸易对中国国内CO_2排量的影响，并利用SDA分别和Divisia指数分解模型，解释了造成这种影响的原因。MRI-O模型计算结果显示对外贸易不利于我国CO_2减排量（BEET）目标的实现，有利于降低我国的碳排放强度（PTT）。本文使用SDA分解模型分解出口内含碳的影响因素，利用分解结果描述五大效应对出口内含碳影响的大小。同时，本文也使用Divisia指数对各部门的BEET进行分解，分解结果显示,对外贸易的规模效应是造成我国净内涵CO_2增加的重要原因，而各个部门的技术效应有利于我国环境质量（CO_2排量）的提高，但结构效应作用并不明显。在不牺牲经济利益情况下（不改变规模效应的前提），本文又对各部门的PTT再次做Divisia指数分解，分解结果表明技术效应有利于降低我国污染强度，结构效应影响并不统一，但通过结构效应和技术效应的“交叉”作用，可以通过对外贸易进一步降低CO_2排放强度。
With the increase of focus on the carbon emission in the international society andmore importance of international trade in the Chinese economic development. This paper studiesthe influence of foreign trade on the CO_2emission by using MRI-O model and accounts for theinfluences by using Structure Decomposition Analysis and Divisia Index decomposition. Theresults show that foreign trade can reduce CO_2emission intensity (PTT) but will increase theCO_2emission (BEET).The results of Structure Decomposition Analysis on the CO_2embodied inthe export indicates five factors can account for the increase of CO_2.Divisia IndexDecomposition into BEET from each sector show scale effect (trade surplus) is the main cause ofthe CO_2emission increase while technology effect can decrease it, and composition effect isuncertain. Also, this paper explores the driving factors of PTT by Divisia Index Decompositionto exclude the scale effect on CO_2emission. The result shows technology effect can reduce thePTT while composition scale is still uncertain, and adjusting the "cross" influence between themis effective to reduce the PTT.
With the increase of focus on the carbon emission in the international society andmore importance of international trade in the Chinese economic development. This paper studiesthe influence of foreign trade on the CO_2emission by using MRI-O model and accounts for theinfluences by using Structure Decomposition Analysis and Divisia Index decomposition. Theresults show that foreign trade can reduce CO_2emission intensity (PTT) but will increase theCO_2emission (BEET).The results of Structure Decomposition Analysis on the CO_2embodied inthe export indicates five factors can account for the increase of CO_2.Divisia IndexDecomposition into BEET from each sector show scale effect (trade surplus) is the main cause ofthe CO_2emission increase while technology effect can decrease it, and composition effect isuncertain. Also, this paper explores the driving factors of PTT by Divisia Index Decompositionto exclude the scale effect on CO_2emission. The result shows technology effect can reduce thePTT while composition scale is still uncertain, and adjusting the "cross" influence between themis effective to reduce the PTT.
引文
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[19]IPCC(1997), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Revised1996IPCC Guidelines for NatI-OnalGreenhouse Gas Inventories.
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[20]Jie.He.,2010.Economic Development，energy demand and Atmospheric PollutI-On: Changlles andOpportunity in the future30years, University of Sherbrooke,working paper.
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[23]Muradian, R., O Connor,M. and J. Martinez-Alier.,2001.‘Embodied pollution in trade: estimating the‘environmental load displacement’ of industrialized countries’,FEEM Working Paper,57.
[24]Mongelli, I., Tassielli, G., Notarnicola, B.,2006. Global warming agreements, international trade andenergy/carbon embodiments: an input–output approach to the Italian case.Energy Policy34(1):88–100.
[25]Peters, G.P., Hertwich, E.G.,2008, CO2embodied in international trade with implications for globalclimate policy. Environmental Science&Technology42(5):1401–1407.
[26]Peter,R and Thomas.O.,2005.Structural Decomposition Analysis of Air Emissions in Denmark in1980-2002,Paper prepared in15thInternational conference on Input-Output Techniques(Beijing,China).
[27]Yi F Chang and Sue J Lin.,1990.Structural Decomposition Analysis of industraial CO2emission in Taiwan:an input-output approach. Energy Policy(26):5-12.
[28]Sánchez-Chóliz, J., Duarte, R.,2004. CO2emissions embodied in international trade:evidence for Spain.Energy Policy32(18):1999–2005.
[29]Sheng Lisheng and Tangzhi.,2009. Reducing the pollutI-On by adjusting china trade mix——A case studyof SO2emission.China Economist (10):97-105.
[30]Temurshoev,U.,2006.‘Pollution haven hypothesis or factor endowment hypothesis:theory and empiricalexamination for the US and China’, Working Paper Series ISSN1211-3298.
[31]Tun, G.., Türüt-A k, S., Akbostanc, E,2007. CO2emissions vs. CO2responsibility: an input–outputapproach for the Turkish economy. Energy Policy35(2),855–868.
[32]Wyckoff, W. Andrew and Joseph M. Roop.,1994. The Embodiment of Carbon in Imports of ManufacturedProducts: Implications for International Agreements on Greenhouse Gas Emissions.Energy Policy22(3):187-194.
[2]杜运输,张为付.中国出口隐含碳排放增长以及驱动因素实证分析[J]国际贸易问题2012（3）
[3]黄菁.环境污染与工业结构:基于Divisia指数分解法的研究[J].统计研究,2009（12）
[4]李小平.污染产业转移和中国CO2排放[J].国际贸易,2009,（1）
[5陈迎，潘家华.中国外贸进出口商品中的内涵能源及政策含义[J]..经济研究.2009,（7）
[6杨全民.中国进出贸易内涵碳的计算与影响因素结构分析研究[M].中国优秀硕士论文,2009
[7]郭朝先.中国二氧化碳增长因素的分析—基于SDA分解技术[J].中国工业经济.2010,（12)
[8]袁鹏，程施，刘海洋.国际贸易对我国CO2排量的影响——基于SDA和LMDI结合的分解方法[J].国际贸易问题.2012(1)pp:122-132
[9]Ahmad, N., Wyckoff, A.,2003. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in International Trade of Goods.OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers.15.
[10]Bin Su.,H.C Huang.,2010.Input-Output analysis of CO2emission embodied in trade:The effects of sectoraggregation,Energy Ecomonics(32):166-175.
[11]Bruvoll,A., and Medin,H.,2003. Factors Behind the Environmental Kuznets Curve,Environmental andResource Economics(24):27-48
[12]Casler,S,D.,Rose,A.,1988Carbon dioxide emission in the US economy:A Structural DecompositionAnalysis. Environment and Resource Economics11(3-4),349-363.
[13]Chung, H.S.,2005. Balance of CO2Emissions Embodied in International Trade: Can Korean Carbon Taxon Its Imported Fossil Fuels Make Any Difference in BEET?Conference Paper
[14]Chris Milner and Fangya Xu.,2009.On the pollution content of China's Trade:clearing the air?,ReaserchPaper Series, China and The World Economy.
[15]Cole, M.A and R.J.R. Elliott.,2003.Determining the Trade-Environment Composition Effect: The Role ofCapital, Labor and Environmental Regulations, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management(46):363-383.
[16]G.M.Grossman and A.B.Krueger.,1991. Environmental Impacts of a North American Free TradeAgreement，Paper prepared for the Conference on United States-Mexico Free Trade Agreement.
[17]Grether, J-M., Mathys, N. and J. de Melo.,2005. A gravity analysis of the pollution content of trade, Paperpresented at ETSG Annual Conference (Dublin).
[18]Hongtao Liu et.,2010.Energy embodied in the international trade of China:An energy input-outpotanalysis,Energy Policy(38),3957-3964.
[19]IPCC(1997), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Revised1996IPCC Guidelines for NatI-OnalGreenhouse Gas Inventories.
[20]Hamilton,C. And Turton,H.,2002.Determinants of Emissions Growth in OECD Countries.EnergyPolicy(30):63-71
[21]Hoekstra, R., van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.,2002. Structural decomposition analysis of physical flows in theeconomy. Environmental and Resource Economics23(3),357–378
[20]Jie.He.,2010.Economic Development，energy demand and Atmospheric PollutI-On: Changlles andOpportunity in the future30years, University of Sherbrooke,working paper.
[22]Lucas, R.E.B., Wheeler, D. and H. Hettige.,1992. Economic development, environmental regulation, andthe international migration of toxic industrial pollution:1960-88, Policy Research Paper No.1062,(World Bank,Washington).
[23]Muradian, R., O Connor,M. and J. Martinez-Alier.,2001.‘Embodied pollution in trade: estimating the‘environmental load displacement’ of industrialized countries’,FEEM Working Paper,57.
[24]Mongelli, I., Tassielli, G., Notarnicola, B.,2006. Global warming agreements, international trade andenergy/carbon embodiments: an input–output approach to the Italian case.Energy Policy34(1):88–100.
[25]Peters, G.P., Hertwich, E.G.,2008, CO2embodied in international trade with implications for globalclimate policy. Environmental Science&Technology42(5):1401–1407.
[26]Peter,R and Thomas.O.,2005.Structural Decomposition Analysis of Air Emissions in Denmark in1980-2002,Paper prepared in15thInternational conference on Input-Output Techniques(Beijing,China).
[27]Yi F Chang and Sue J Lin.,1990.Structural Decomposition Analysis of industraial CO2emission in Taiwan:an input-output approach. Energy Policy(26):5-12.
[28]Sánchez-Chóliz, J., Duarte, R.,2004. CO2emissions embodied in international trade:evidence for Spain.Energy Policy32(18):1999–2005.
[29]Sheng Lisheng and Tangzhi.,2009. Reducing the pollutI-On by adjusting china trade mix——A case studyof SO2emission.China Economist (10):97-105.
[30]Temurshoev,U.,2006.‘Pollution haven hypothesis or factor endowment hypothesis:theory and empiricalexamination for the US and China’, Working Paper Series ISSN1211-3298.
[31]Tun, G.., Türüt-A k, S., Akbostanc, E,2007. CO2emissions vs. CO2responsibility: an input–outputapproach for the Turkish economy. Energy Policy35(2),855–868.
[32]Wyckoff, W. Andrew and Joseph M. Roop.,1994. The Embodiment of Carbon in Imports of ManufacturedProducts: Implications for International Agreements on Greenhouse Gas Emissions.Energy Policy22(3):187-194.