外向直接投资与中国外贸演化：机理与实证
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摘要
中国对外贸易以往三十多年的快速发展并由贸易小国迅速变为贸易大国的跳跃式扩张,得益于一系列按照时间序列展开与叠加的因素。早期几乎完全仰仗有限的体制改革和限于特区的引进外资,后来是整个沿海地区的对外开放,再后来是“入世”与履行“入世”承诺的全方位对外开放,最后则是企业“走出去”与外向直接投资(ODI)。这些因素相继成为围绕中国外贸扩张研究的热点论题。最近的热点论题之一,无疑是0DI对于外贸发展的效应。ODI与外贸扩张原本是国际经济学的一个老论题,但已有研究存在两个明显的偏向：一个是有关理论几乎完全基于发达工业化国家以往的现实提出,鲜有基于新兴市场经济体的理论。另一个是大多围绕着ODI与贸易的互补抑或替代关系展开,而忽略了此类效应作用的机理以及别的贸易效应,尤其是贸易结构效应与贸易条件效应。本文主旨,就在于从新兴市场经济体ODI所具有的特点出发,以中国现实数据为依据,分析ODI在中国贸易规模、贸易结构与贸易条件动态演化中的系列效应。
机理分析方面,本文从资本流动与母国贸易的关系切入,通过对Mundell模型从小国模型到大国模型的扩展,刻画了资本流动对母国贸易条件变化的作用机理。考虑到ODI流动中企业决策的核心地位,故从跨国公司利润最大化目标的假定出发,构建了反映ODI母国贸易效应的理论模型,分析了ODI对母国贸易替代效应或互补效应的作用机理。在此基础上引出三个实证命题,分别围绕ODI-贸易数量动态变化、ODI-贸易结构动态变化以及ODI-贸易条件动态变化展开。
实证检验以机理分析为基础,以中国ODI扩展现实为线索及依据,构建了一个实证检验模型,引入UNCTAD和WTO数据分别对中国ODI的贸易规模效应、贸易结构效应和贸易条件效应进行了实证检验。其中,围绕第一个命题的实证检验证明,中国ODI存量与流量都对外贸规模产生了明显的影响,且存量对外贸规模的影响大于流量。具体而言,从1982年到2010年,ODI的贸易规模效应最为明显,ODI存量促进了货物贸易和服务贸易进出口规模的全面扩张；但从2005至2010年中国ODI的地区分布看,ODI对货物出口的影响存在着一定差异,符合“中国式”ODI的理论判断。围绕第二个实证命题的检验证明,当ODI-贸易规模效应发生,进而会产生ODI-贸易结构效应,但是ODI-贸易结构效应存在着一定的时滞。具体地说,通过时间序列检验的ODI母国贸易结构效应不如贸易规模效应显著；但通过对2006至2010年七个细分行业的ODI和贸易的面板数据分析表明,无论ODI存量还是ODI流量都对这些行业的贸易结构产生了影响。围绕第三个实证命题的检验证明,ODI会产生一定的贸易条件效应,但ODI不是决定贸易条件变化的最主要因素。通过时间序列对ODI的贸易条件效应进行检验表明,ODI产生了一定的贸易条件效应,ODI存量一定程度上有助于中国贸易条件改善,而ODI流量却加速了贸易条件的恶化,但是影响贸易条件效应变化的最主要因素仍然是国际与国内市场的需求变化。
上述结论的理论意义,首先在于对ODI-贸易效应论题研究视野的拓展与命题本身的深化。从作为新兴市场经济体而具有的“中国式ODI”特征切入,将论题由单纯的贸易规模效应拓展至结构效应和贸易条件效应,同时对以往研究所关注的规模效应进行了综合视野的动态化拓展。实证检验按照命题要求探索了新的方法。研究的现实政策启示在于,政府旨在鼓励企业“走出去”与对外投资的政策目标,不仅应考虑其单纯的境外市场与境外资源开拓效应带来的贸易规模效应,而且更重要的应考虑其贸易结构效应和贸易条件效应,后两种贸易效应包涵了更多的贸易福利内涵。
The rapid expansion of China's foreign trade and its quick transforming from a small trading country to giant one during the last three decades owe a lot to a series overlaping elements related with opening up strategy and policies. The institutional reform, attracting FDI with privileged polices in the special economic zones, opening up the whole coastland areas, joining the WTO and launching the "going out strategy", etc, are typical ones. All these can be looked as series events. Recently, the hot topic is the effect of ODI on China's foreign trade. The relationship between ODI and foreign trade of the home country is an old topic of international economics. But until now, researches on the topic neglected some basic facts. On the one hand, most of researches have paid more attention to the relationship between ODI and trade in the industrial countries but they neglected the phenomenon in emerging market economies; On the other hand, most of the researches have paid more attention to the hypothesis of "complementary effect" or "substitution effect" but neglected the mechanism of the effect of ODI on trade. In the meanwhile, they neglected the trade structure effect and terms of trade effect. The main aim of this dissertation is to study the dynamic trade effect of China's ODI, including trade scale effect, trade structure effect and terms of trade effect.
In theory, this dissertation has studied the mechanism of capital movement on trade through expanding Mundell's capital movement of small country model to big country model. But the mechanism of ODI on trade is more complex than mere capital movement. Therefore this dissertation analyzes the theoretical model of effect of ODI on home country trade on the hypothesis that multinational corporations would maximize their profit. The dissertation derives three empirical prepositions (dynamic effect of relationship between ODI and trade scale, trade structure and terms of trade) on the theoretical analysis.
On the basis of analysis of mechanism of effect of ODI on trade, this paper builds the empirical regress model to testify the relationship between ODI and trade scale, trade structure and terms of trade, using time series data of China's ODI and trade which come from UNCTAD and WTO respectively. As far as the effect of ODI on trade scale, using data from1982-2010, empirical results show that both the stock and flow of ODI have positive effect on the scale of home country's trade. Furthermore, the stock of ODI has more effect on trade scale than the flow of ODI does. The stock of ODI expands both the volume of home country's merchandizing trade and service trade. As far as the effect of ODI on trade structure, there is no obvious evidence that the stock of ODI has positive effect on trade structure when using time series data. But the flow of ODI has lagged effect on trade structure. Furthermore, when the panel data of China's7industries from2006to2010are used, the empirical results show that the stock and flow of ODI have positive effect on the structure of home country trade. Lastly, this dissertation testifies the relationship between ODI and home country's terms of trade. Results show that the stock of ODI improves China's terms of trade but the flow of ODI deteriorates it when time series data are used. But the demand of domestic market and international market are decisive factors of China's terms of trade.
The theoretical meaning of this study is that this dissertation extends the study field and deepens the preposition of the topic on relationship between ODI and home country trade. This dissertation analyzes the characteristics of China's ODI as a typical model of emerging market and extends the study field from trade scale effect to trade structure effect and terms of trade effect as well as the dynamic trade scale effect. This paper attempts to use new method to test the preposition. The policy meaning of this study is that the government should set the appropriate aim of "Going Out Policy".The "Going Out Policy" should not only consider the trade scale effect of market expanding motivated and resource seeking ODI but also the trade structure effect and terms of trade effect, which contains more trade benefit effect.
机理分析方面,本文从资本流动与母国贸易的关系切入,通过对Mundell模型从小国模型到大国模型的扩展,刻画了资本流动对母国贸易条件变化的作用机理。考虑到ODI流动中企业决策的核心地位,故从跨国公司利润最大化目标的假定出发,构建了反映ODI母国贸易效应的理论模型,分析了ODI对母国贸易替代效应或互补效应的作用机理。在此基础上引出三个实证命题,分别围绕ODI-贸易数量动态变化、ODI-贸易结构动态变化以及ODI-贸易条件动态变化展开。
实证检验以机理分析为基础,以中国ODI扩展现实为线索及依据,构建了一个实证检验模型,引入UNCTAD和WTO数据分别对中国ODI的贸易规模效应、贸易结构效应和贸易条件效应进行了实证检验。其中,围绕第一个命题的实证检验证明,中国ODI存量与流量都对外贸规模产生了明显的影响,且存量对外贸规模的影响大于流量。具体而言,从1982年到2010年,ODI的贸易规模效应最为明显,ODI存量促进了货物贸易和服务贸易进出口规模的全面扩张；但从2005至2010年中国ODI的地区分布看,ODI对货物出口的影响存在着一定差异,符合“中国式”ODI的理论判断。围绕第二个实证命题的检验证明,当ODI-贸易规模效应发生,进而会产生ODI-贸易结构效应,但是ODI-贸易结构效应存在着一定的时滞。具体地说,通过时间序列检验的ODI母国贸易结构效应不如贸易规模效应显著；但通过对2006至2010年七个细分行业的ODI和贸易的面板数据分析表明,无论ODI存量还是ODI流量都对这些行业的贸易结构产生了影响。围绕第三个实证命题的检验证明,ODI会产生一定的贸易条件效应,但ODI不是决定贸易条件变化的最主要因素。通过时间序列对ODI的贸易条件效应进行检验表明,ODI产生了一定的贸易条件效应,ODI存量一定程度上有助于中国贸易条件改善,而ODI流量却加速了贸易条件的恶化,但是影响贸易条件效应变化的最主要因素仍然是国际与国内市场的需求变化。
上述结论的理论意义,首先在于对ODI-贸易效应论题研究视野的拓展与命题本身的深化。从作为新兴市场经济体而具有的“中国式ODI”特征切入,将论题由单纯的贸易规模效应拓展至结构效应和贸易条件效应,同时对以往研究所关注的规模效应进行了综合视野的动态化拓展。实证检验按照命题要求探索了新的方法。研究的现实政策启示在于,政府旨在鼓励企业“走出去”与对外投资的政策目标,不仅应考虑其单纯的境外市场与境外资源开拓效应带来的贸易规模效应,而且更重要的应考虑其贸易结构效应和贸易条件效应,后两种贸易效应包涵了更多的贸易福利内涵。
The rapid expansion of China's foreign trade and its quick transforming from a small trading country to giant one during the last three decades owe a lot to a series overlaping elements related with opening up strategy and policies. The institutional reform, attracting FDI with privileged polices in the special economic zones, opening up the whole coastland areas, joining the WTO and launching the "going out strategy", etc, are typical ones. All these can be looked as series events. Recently, the hot topic is the effect of ODI on China's foreign trade. The relationship between ODI and foreign trade of the home country is an old topic of international economics. But until now, researches on the topic neglected some basic facts. On the one hand, most of researches have paid more attention to the relationship between ODI and trade in the industrial countries but they neglected the phenomenon in emerging market economies; On the other hand, most of the researches have paid more attention to the hypothesis of "complementary effect" or "substitution effect" but neglected the mechanism of the effect of ODI on trade. In the meanwhile, they neglected the trade structure effect and terms of trade effect. The main aim of this dissertation is to study the dynamic trade effect of China's ODI, including trade scale effect, trade structure effect and terms of trade effect.
In theory, this dissertation has studied the mechanism of capital movement on trade through expanding Mundell's capital movement of small country model to big country model. But the mechanism of ODI on trade is more complex than mere capital movement. Therefore this dissertation analyzes the theoretical model of effect of ODI on home country trade on the hypothesis that multinational corporations would maximize their profit. The dissertation derives three empirical prepositions (dynamic effect of relationship between ODI and trade scale, trade structure and terms of trade) on the theoretical analysis.
On the basis of analysis of mechanism of effect of ODI on trade, this paper builds the empirical regress model to testify the relationship between ODI and trade scale, trade structure and terms of trade, using time series data of China's ODI and trade which come from UNCTAD and WTO respectively. As far as the effect of ODI on trade scale, using data from1982-2010, empirical results show that both the stock and flow of ODI have positive effect on the scale of home country's trade. Furthermore, the stock of ODI has more effect on trade scale than the flow of ODI does. The stock of ODI expands both the volume of home country's merchandizing trade and service trade. As far as the effect of ODI on trade structure, there is no obvious evidence that the stock of ODI has positive effect on trade structure when using time series data. But the flow of ODI has lagged effect on trade structure. Furthermore, when the panel data of China's7industries from2006to2010are used, the empirical results show that the stock and flow of ODI have positive effect on the structure of home country trade. Lastly, this dissertation testifies the relationship between ODI and home country's terms of trade. Results show that the stock of ODI improves China's terms of trade but the flow of ODI deteriorates it when time series data are used. But the demand of domestic market and international market are decisive factors of China's terms of trade.
The theoretical meaning of this study is that this dissertation extends the study field and deepens the preposition of the topic on relationship between ODI and home country trade. This dissertation analyzes the characteristics of China's ODI as a typical model of emerging market and extends the study field from trade scale effect to trade structure effect and terms of trade effect as well as the dynamic trade scale effect. This paper attempts to use new method to test the preposition. The policy meaning of this study is that the government should set the appropriate aim of "Going Out Policy".The "Going Out Policy" should not only consider the trade scale effect of market expanding motivated and resource seeking ODI but also the trade structure effect and terms of trade effect, which contains more trade benefit effect.
引文
1 Outward Foreign Direct Investment,也可以缩写成OFDI。本文把对外商直接投资(Inward Foreign Direct Investment)简称为FDI,把外向直接投资(对外直接投资)简称为ODI。
2 Mundell Robert, International Trade and Factor Mobility[J], American Economic Review,1957,47(7).
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17项本武.中国对外直接投资：决定因素与经济效应的实证研究[M],社会科学文献出版社,2005.项本武.对外直接投资的贸易效应研究——基于中国经验的检验[J],中南财经政法大学学报,2006(3),9-15.项本武.东道国特征与中国对外直接投资的实证研究[J],数量经济技术经济研究,2009(7),34-45.项本武.中国对外直接投资的贸易效应研究——基于面板数据的协整分析[J],财贸经济,2009(4),77-82.
18俞毅、万炼.我国进出口商品结构与对外直接投资的相关性研究--基于VAR模型的分析框架[J],国际贸易问题,2009(6),96-104.
19联合国贸易与发展会议(UNCTAD)从1991年起每年发布《世界投资报告》(World Investment Report).1992年《世界投资报告》详见http://www.unctad.org/en/pages/PublicationArchive.aspx?publicationid=639
20张二震等,贸易投资一体化与中国战略[M],人民出版社,2004年,p38。
21这一定义来自于IMF《国际收支手册》(IMF,1993)、UNCTAD《世界投资报告》(UNCTAD,1995)以及OECD《外国直接投资定义的详细指标》(OECD,1996)。
22参见Mundell Robert, International Trade and Factor Mobility[J], American Economic Review,1957,47(7).
23国内有学者把转换曲线解释为生产可能性边界。本文认为,二者还是存在着不同,在这里转换曲线的实质是国内生产与进口贸易之间的转换或选择,而生产可能性边界则更适合于解释厂商决策中生产成本与交易成本的比较。
24雷布津斯基定理(Rybczynski Theorem)是指在商品相对价格不变的前提下,某一要素的增加会导致密集使用该要素部门的生产增加,而另一部门的生产则下降。
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Bhagwati, Jagdish N., The Theory of Immiserising Growth:Further Application, in M.Connolly and A. Swoboda, eds. International Trade and Money[M], The Press of Toronto University,1973:45-54.
27同4。
28同5。
29 Schmitz.A., Helmberger,P., Factor Mobility and International Trade:The Case of Complementarity[J], American Economic Review,1970,60(4):761-767.
Flatters, Frank, Commodity Price Equalization:A Note on Factor Mobility and Trade[J], American Economic Review,1972,62(3):442-476.
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32 Goldberg,Linda S., Klein,Michael W., International Trade and Factor Mobility:An Empirical Investigation [J], NBER Working Paper No.7196,1999.
33同6。
34小岛清(日)著,周宝廉译,对外贸易论[M],南开大学出版社,1987年版。
35 Markusen,J.R.,Factor Movements and Commodity Trade as Complements[J], Journal of International Economics,1983,14:341-356.
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20
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49同9。
50同10。
51李兵,对外直接投资的贸易效应研究——以日、韩为例[D],2008。
52同11。
53 Brainard,L S., An empirical Assessment of the Proximity-concentration Trade-off Between Multinational Sales and Trade [J],American Economic Review,1997,87:520-544.
56同12。
57 Grossman,G.M,Helpman,E.,Szeidl,A.,Optimal Integration Strategies for the Multinational FirmrR], NBER Working Paper No.10189,2004.
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59 Schmitz, Andrew&Helmberger, Peter,1970, Factor Mobility and International Trade:The Case of Complemen-tarity, American Economic Review,60(4),:761-767.
60同13。
61 Svensson,R., Effects of Overseas Production on Home Country Exports:Evidence Based on Swedish Multinationals[J], Weltwitschaftliched Archiv,1996,35(3):87-196.
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63同12。
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66 Lipsey, R.E., M. Y. Weiss, Exports and Foreign Investment in Manufacturing Industries, NBER Working Papers No.0131,1976.
67 Linsev.R.E.. M.Y.Weiss.Foreign Production and Exports in Manufacturing Industries[J].Review of Economics and Statistics.1981.63:488-494.
68 Lipsey R.E., M. Y.Weiss, Foreign Production and Exports of Individual Firms[J], Review of Economics and Statistics,1984,66:304-308.
69 Blomstrom, M., R. Lipsey and K. Kulchycky, U.S. and Swedish Direct Investment and Exports,in R. Baldwin (ed.),Trade Police Issues and Empirical Results.Chicago University Press,1988:259-97.
70 Lipsey,R. E.,Ramstetter,E. and Blomstrom,M., Outward FDI and Parent Exports and Employment:Japan, the United States and Sweden, NBER Working Paper,No.7623,2000.
71 Lipsey R.E., EricD.Ramstetter, Affiliate Activity in Japanese and U.S. Multinationals and Japanese Exports, 1986-1995, NBER Working Papers, No.8581,2001.
72 Nigel Pain,Katharine Wakelin, Export Performance and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment,The Manchester School of Economics&Social Studies,1997,66:62-88
73 Eaton J. and Tamura A., Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns, Journal of the Japanese and International Economics,1994,8.
74 Fontagne L.and Pajot M.,How Foreign Direct Investment Affect International Trade and Competiveness:An Empirical Assessment,CEPII,document de travail,1997:97-167.
75 Hejazi,W.,Safarian,A.E., The Complementarity Between U.S.Foreign Direct Investment Stock and Trade[J]. Atlantic Economic Journal,2001,29(4):420-437.
76关于新兴市场经济体究竟包括哪些国家和地区,各大全球性经济组织有划分略有不同：2004年起IMF重新对全球经济体进行了分类,把原来发达经济体、转型经济体和发展中经济体三类调整为两大类,亚洲新兴工业化经济体(NIES)被列入了先行经济体,而其他的则称为新兴市场和发展中经济体。UNCTAD对新兴市场经济体的分类中则通常包括了亚洲新兴工业化经济体。但是不管哪种分类,都认为“金砖国家”是目前新兴市场经济体的典型代表。
77 Agarwal. J. H.,Third Word Multinationals and Balance of Payments Effects on Home Countries:A Case Study of India. in Khushi.,M.K.(ed).Multinationals from the South[M],London, Macmillan,1986:84-195. 30
80同16。
81 Jung Soo Seo;Chung-Sok Suh, An Analysis of Home Country Trade Effects of Outward Foreign Direct Investment, ASEAN Economic Bulletin,2006, (2)23:160-171.
82 Joshua Aizenman, Ilan Noy, FDI and Trade—Two-way Linkages?[J], The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,2006,46(3):317-337.
83项本武：中国对外直接投资：决定因素与经济效应的实证研究[M],社会科学文献出版社,2005年8月。
84相关文献在此次金融危机后迅速增加,比如SaschaO.Becker, Marc-Andreas Muendler, The Effect of FDI on Job Security,The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy,2008,8; McDonnell,Anthony,Outward foreign direct investment and human capital development,Journal of European Industrial Training,2008,32; Castellani, Davide; Mariotti, Ilaria; Piscitello,Lucia, The Impact of Outward Investments on Parent Company's Employment and Skill Composition Evidence From the Italian Case, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2008,19. Driffield,Nigel;Love,James H.;Tayer,Karl, Productivity and Labour Demand Effects of Inward and Outward Foreign Direct Investment on UK Industry, Manchester School,2009,77.
85吴先明.国际贸易理论与国际直接投资理论的融合发展趋势[J],经济学动态,1999(7),51-55.
86李荣林.国际贸易与直接投资的关系[J],世界经济,2002(4),44-46.
87胡国恒.贸易和直接投资理论的一体化发展及其最新进展[J],外国经济与管理,2005(7),16-26.
88龚晓莺、杨小勇、王朝科.国际贸易与国际直接投资的三种关系——芒德尔贸易与投资替代模型引发的思考[J],国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2006(4),54-57.
89邱立成.论国际直接投资与国际贸易之间的联系[J],南开经济研究,1999(6),33-39.
90梁志成.论国际贸易与国际直接投资的新型关系——对芒德尔贸易与投资替代模型的重新思考[J],经济评论,2001(2),113-115.
91尼尔.胡德,斯蒂芬.扬(英),叶刚译.《跨国企业经济学》[M],经济科学出版社1990..
92古广东,对外直接投资与母国经济利益：理论分析与实证研究[D],2006.
93李兵,对外直接投资的贸易效应研究——以日、韩为例[D],2008年4月。
94赵伟.中国企业“走出去”——政府政策取向与典型案例分析[M],经济科学出版社,2004.
95蔡锐、刘泉.中国的国际直接投资与贸易是互补的吗?一基于小岛清“边际产业理论”的实证分析[J],世界经济研究[J],2004(8),64-70.
96张如庆.中国对外直接投资与对外贸易的关系分析[J],世界经济研究,2005(3),23-27.
97陈石清.对外直接投资与出口贸易实证比较研究[J],财经理论与实践,2006(1),56-61.
98王英、刘思峰.中国对外直接投资的出口效应：一个实证分析[J],世界经济与政治论坛,2007(1),36-41
99古广东,中国企业对外直接投资对出口贸易影响分析[J],亚太经济,2008(1),55-57.
100项本武.中国对外直接投资：决定因素与经济效应的实证研究[M],社会科学文献出版社,2005.
101项本武.对外直接投资的贸易效应研究——基于中国经验的检验[J],中南财经政法大学学报,2006(3),9-15.
102项本武.东道国特征与中国对外直接投资的实证研究[J],数量经济技术经济研究,2009(7),34-45.项本武.中国对外直接投资的贸易效应研究——基于面板数据的协整分析[J],财贸经济,2009(4),77-82.
103同18。
104江泽民.通报中央政治局常委“三讲”情况的讲话,2000年1月20日,江泽民文选(第二卷)[M],人民出版社,2006年8月第一版,P569.
106熊性美、戴金平等,当代国际经济与国际经济学主流[M],东北财经大学出版社,2004年11月版,p496499。
107详见《国民经济和社会发展第十个五年计划纲要》,人民出版社,2001年3月。
108详见《国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年计划纲要》第三十七章。人民出版社,2006年3月。
109 1949年11月在美国操纵下,西方国家成立的旨在限制对社会主义国家出口的国际性组织,确定数千种商品和750种技术设备禁止向社会主义国家出口。该委员会下设有“中国委员会”,直至1994年4月宣布解散。
111根据国家统计局数据http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/计算得到。
Deng, P., Foreign Investment by Multinationals From Emerging Countries:the Case of China[J], Journal of Leadership & Organizational Studies,2003,10:113-123.
113 Deng. P., Outward investment by Chinese MNCS:Motivations and Implications[J], Business Horizons,2004, 3:8-16
114 Deng, P., Why do Chinese Firms Tend to Acquire Strategic Assets in International Expansion? [J], Journal of World Business.2009.44:74-84.
Erdener, C.&Shapiro,D.M., the Internationalization of Chinese Family Enterprises and Dunning's Eclectic MNE Paradigm[J], Management and Organization Rrview,2005,1:411-436
116小岛清(日),对外贸易论[M],南开大学出版社1987年版,P423.
117杜凯、周勤,中国对外直接投资“贸易壁垒诱发的跨越行为[J],南开经济研究,2010(2),44-63。
118 1981—2010年间的跨国并购,有37%发生在石油采矿业中,这类的跨国并购项目通常金额巨大。
119 E. Helpman & P. Antras, Contractual Frictions and Global Sourcing, NBER Working Papers, No.12747, 2006.
120 Markusen,J R, Venables A J, The Theory of Endowment,Intra-industry,and Multinational Trade[J], Journal of International Economics.2000.52:209-234.
121 Carr,D.L.Markusen,J.R.&Maskus K E., Estimating the Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise[J],American Economic Review,2001,91:693-708.
123 UNCTAD自1992年起每年发布《世界投资报告》,同时公布以海外资产和跨国指数(TNI)排序的“全球最大100个跨国公司”。详细资料参见http://www.unctad.org/Templates/Page.asp?intItemID=2443&lang=1
125英国经济学家希克斯(J.R.Hicks)把技术进步分为中性技术进步、劳动节约型技术进步与资本节约型技术进步三类。由于各种类型的技术进步和它发生所在的产业部门不同,生产可能性曲线向外扩张后的形状不同,因而对贸易结构的影响也不同。
126 Helpman E., Krugman P.R., Trade Policy and Market Structure [M], The MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass,1989.
127林毅夫,经济发展与转型——思潮、战略与自生能力[M],北京：北京大学出版社,2007。
128赵东,广东省对外贸易商品结构与产业结构关系的实证分析[D].广东外语外贸大学,2006。
129原毅军、董琨,产业结构的变动与优化：理论解释和定量分析[M],大连：大连理工大学出版社,2008。
130同102。
131高敏雪、李颖俊,对外直接投资发展阶段的实证分析——国际经验与中国现状的探讨[J],管理世界,2004(1),55-61。
132李辉,经济增长与对外投资大国地位的形成[J],经济研究,2007(2),38-47。
133梁军、谢康,中国“双向投资”的结构：阶段检验与发展趋势[J],世界经济研究,2008(1),3-9。
134陈漓高、黄武俊,投资发展路径(IDP)：阶段检验和国际比较研究[J],世界经济研究,2009(9),51-56。
135黄武俊、燕安,中国对外直接投资发展阶段实证检验和国际比较[J],国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2010(1),67-73。
136 UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2004, p:46
137中国的主要贸易伙伴选取了香港、日本、韩国、东盟(10国)、欧盟(27国)、北美自由贸易区(NAFTA3国)和南美(13国),涵盖了从1982—2010年间中国不同时期主要贸易伙伴。
138本文除特别注明外,运用的计量软件均为E-views 6.0软件。
139货物贸易出口比重(PEXM)是指货物贸易出口占货物贸易进出口的比重,货物贸易进口比重(PIMM)是指货物贸易进口占货物贸易进出口的比重,主要反映货物贸易中进出口结构比例的变化。同理得到服务贸易出口比重(PEXS)和服务贸易进口比重(PIMS),反映服务贸易中进出口结构的变化。
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2 Mundell Robert, International Trade and Factor Mobility[J], American Economic Review,1957,47(7).
3 Bhagwati, Jagdish N., The Theory of Immiserising Growth:Further Application, in M.Connolly and A. Swoboda, eds. International Trade and Money[M], The Press of Toronto University,1973:45-54.
4 Kemp, M.C., The Gain from International Trade ang Investment:A Neo-Hechschor-Ohlina Approac[J], Ametiran Ecoomisc Review.1966.56.288-298.
5 Johns,R.W.,Internatioal Capital Movements and the Theory of Tariffs and Trade[J], Quarterly Journal of Economics,1967,81(1):1-38.
6 Kojima,K, International Trade and Foreign Investment:substitutes or Complements [J], Journal of Economics, 1975.15.1.
7 Markusen,J.R.,Factor Movements and Commodity Trade as Complements[J], Journal of International Economics,1983,14:341-356.
8 Markusen, J.R., E.O.Sevesson, Trade in Goods and Factor with International Differences in Technology[J], International Economic Review,1985,26:175-192.
9 Helpman E.,A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations [J], The Journal of Political Economy,1984,92:451-471.
10 Helpman E., Krugman P., Market Structure and Foreign Trade, in Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competion and International Economy[M], The MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass,1985.
11 Markusen,J R.,Multinationals,Multiplant Economies and the Gains from Trade[J].Journal of International Economics,1984,16:205-226 Markusen,J R, Venables A J, The Theory of Endowment,Intra-industry,and Multinational Trade[J], Journal of International Economics,2000,52:209-234 Markusen,J R.,Multinational Firms and the Theory of International Trade[M], Cambridge, MA:The MIT Press, 2002.
12 Helpman,E.Melitz,M.J.,Yeaple,S.R. Export versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms[J], American Economic Review,2004,94:300-316.
13 Adler M., Stevens G, The Trade Effects of Direct Investment[J]. Journal of Finance,1974,29(2):655-676.
14 Lin, An-loh, Trade Effects of Foreign Direct Investment:Evidence for Taiwan with Four ASEAN Countries[J], Review of World Economics,1995,131(4):737-47.
15 June-Dong Kim and In-Soo Kang, Outward FDI and Exports:The Case of South Korea and Japan[J]. Journal of Asian Economics,1997,8(1):38-42.
16 Lim, Sung-Hoon; Moon, Hwy-Chang, Effects of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Home Country Exports:The Case of Korean Firms, Multinational Business Review,2001, (1)9:42-49.
17项本武.中国对外直接投资：决定因素与经济效应的实证研究[M],社会科学文献出版社,2005.项本武.对外直接投资的贸易效应研究——基于中国经验的检验[J],中南财经政法大学学报,2006(3),9-15.项本武.东道国特征与中国对外直接投资的实证研究[J],数量经济技术经济研究,2009(7),34-45.项本武.中国对外直接投资的贸易效应研究——基于面板数据的协整分析[J],财贸经济,2009(4),77-82.
18俞毅、万炼.我国进出口商品结构与对外直接投资的相关性研究--基于VAR模型的分析框架[J],国际贸易问题,2009(6),96-104.
19联合国贸易与发展会议(UNCTAD)从1991年起每年发布《世界投资报告》(World Investment Report).1992年《世界投资报告》详见http://www.unctad.org/en/pages/PublicationArchive.aspx?publicationid=639
20张二震等,贸易投资一体化与中国战略[M],人民出版社,2004年,p38。
21这一定义来自于IMF《国际收支手册》(IMF,1993)、UNCTAD《世界投资报告》(UNCTAD,1995)以及OECD《外国直接投资定义的详细指标》(OECD,1996)。
22参见Mundell Robert, International Trade and Factor Mobility[J], American Economic Review,1957,47(7).
23国内有学者把转换曲线解释为生产可能性边界。本文认为,二者还是存在着不同,在这里转换曲线的实质是国内生产与进口贸易之间的转换或选择,而生产可能性边界则更适合于解释厂商决策中生产成本与交易成本的比较。
24雷布津斯基定理(Rybczynski Theorem)是指在商品相对价格不变的前提下,某一要素的增加会导致密集使用该要素部门的生产增加,而另一部门的生产则下降。
25 Johnson, H. G., International Factor Movement and the Theory of Tariff and Trade[J], Quarterly Journal of Economics,1967,81(3):151-154. Grubel, H. G.; Johnson, H. G., Nominal Tariff Rates and United States Valuation Practices:Two Case Studies[J], The Review of Economics and Statistics,1967,49(2):138-142.
Bhagwati, Jagdish N., The Theory of Immiserising Growth:Further Application, in M.Connolly and A. Swoboda, eds. International Trade and Money[M], The Press of Toronto University,1973:45-54.
27同4。
28同5。
29 Schmitz.A., Helmberger,P., Factor Mobility and International Trade:The Case of Complementarity[J], American Economic Review,1970,60(4):761-767.
Flatters, Frank, Commodity Price Equalization:A Note on Factor Mobility and Trade[J], American Economic Review,1972,62(3):442-476.
31 Purvis, D. D., Technology,Trade and FactorMobility[J], Economic Journal,1972,82:991-999.
32 Goldberg,Linda S., Klein,Michael W., International Trade and Factor Mobility:An Empirical Investigation [J], NBER Working Paper No.7196,1999.
33同6。
34小岛清(日)著,周宝廉译,对外贸易论[M],南开大学出版社,1987年版。
35 Markusen,J.R.,Factor Movements and Commodity Trade as Complements[J], Journal of International Economics,1983,14:341-356.
36 Markusen, J.R., E.O. Sevensson, Trade inGoods and Factor with International Differences in Technology[J], International Economic Review,1985,26:175-192.
37 Neary,J.P.,Factor Mobilityand International trade[J],Canadian Journal of Economics,1995,28,Special Issue.
38 A.Patrie, The Regional Clustering of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade[R], Transnational Corporation, 1994,DEC.
39 Dinopoulos, Elias and Kar Yiu Wong. Quid Pro Quo Foreign Investment and Policy Intervention[J], International Trade and Global Development,1991,(1):62-90.
40 Bhagwati J. N., Dinopoulos E., and Kar Yiu Wong. Quid Pro Quo Foreign Investment [J], American Economy Review,1992,82:186-190.
41参见：李荣林,国际贸易与直接投资的关系：文献综述[J],世界经济,2002(4),44-46。
42 Hymer, S. H.,The International Operations of National Firms:A Study of Direct Foreign Investment. PhD Dissertation.1960, Published posthumously. The MIT Press,1976. Cambridge, Mass.
43 Hirsch,S.,An International Trade and Investment Theory of the Firm, Oxford Economic Paper,1976, 28:258-270.
20
44 Williamson O.,Transaction Cost Economy:The Governance of contractual Relations, Journal of Law and Economics,1979,22:233-261.
45 Casson,M.,Alternatives to the Multinational Enterprises, London, Macmillan Press,1979. Casson,M.,Multinational Enterprises and Economic Analysis,Cambridge University Press,1982.
46 Vernon R.,International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle,Quarterly Journal of Economics,1966:190-207. Vernon R.,The Produc Cycle Hypothesis in a New International Environment,Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,1979,.80:255-267.
47 J.H.Dunning, Trade, Location of Economic Activities, and the MNE:A Search for an Eclectic Approach, in B. Ohlin ed. International Allocation of Economic Activity. Holms &Meier,1977.
J.H.Dunning,International Production and the multinational Enterprise, London, Allen&Unwind Press,1981.
48胡国恒,贸易和直接投资理论的一体化发展及其最新进展[J],外国经济与管理,2005(7),16-26。
49同9。
50同10。
51李兵,对外直接投资的贸易效应研究——以日、韩为例[D],2008。
52同11。
53 Brainard,L S., An empirical Assessment of the Proximity-concentration Trade-off Between Multinational Sales and Trade [J],American Economic Review,1997,87:520-544.
56同12。
57 Grossman,G.M,Helpman,E.,Szeidl,A.,Optimal Integration Strategies for the Multinational FirmrR], NBER Working Paper No.10189,2004.
58 Dixit A.K. and Grossman Gene M., Trade and Protection with Multistage Production[J], The Review of Economic Studies,1982,10(49):583-594.
59 Schmitz, Andrew&Helmberger, Peter,1970, Factor Mobility and International Trade:The Case of Complemen-tarity, American Economic Review,60(4),:761-767.
60同13。
61 Svensson,R., Effects of Overseas Production on Home Country Exports:Evidence Based on Swedish Multinationals[J], Weltwitschaftliched Archiv,1996,35(3):87-196.
62 Belderbos, Rene, Sleuwaegen, Leo, Tariff Jumping DFI and Export Substitution:Japanese Electronics Firms in Europe, International Journal of Industrial Organization,1998,16(5):601-638, Sept.
63同12。
64 Horst, T., Firm and Industry Determinants of the Decision to Invest Abroad:An Empirical Study, Review of Economics and Statistics,1972,54(3), Aug.
63 Michael Pfaffermayr, Foreign Outward Direct Investment and Exports in Austrian Manufacturing:Substitutes or Complements? [J].Review of World Economics,1996,132.
66 Lipsey, R.E., M. Y. Weiss, Exports and Foreign Investment in Manufacturing Industries, NBER Working Papers No.0131,1976.
67 Linsev.R.E.. M.Y.Weiss.Foreign Production and Exports in Manufacturing Industries[J].Review of Economics and Statistics.1981.63:488-494.
68 Lipsey R.E., M. Y.Weiss, Foreign Production and Exports of Individual Firms[J], Review of Economics and Statistics,1984,66:304-308.
69 Blomstrom, M., R. Lipsey and K. Kulchycky, U.S. and Swedish Direct Investment and Exports,in R. Baldwin (ed.),Trade Police Issues and Empirical Results.Chicago University Press,1988:259-97.
70 Lipsey,R. E.,Ramstetter,E. and Blomstrom,M., Outward FDI and Parent Exports and Employment:Japan, the United States and Sweden, NBER Working Paper,No.7623,2000.
71 Lipsey R.E., EricD.Ramstetter, Affiliate Activity in Japanese and U.S. Multinationals and Japanese Exports, 1986-1995, NBER Working Papers, No.8581,2001.
72 Nigel Pain,Katharine Wakelin, Export Performance and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment,The Manchester School of Economics&Social Studies,1997,66:62-88
73 Eaton J. and Tamura A., Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns, Journal of the Japanese and International Economics,1994,8.
74 Fontagne L.and Pajot M.,How Foreign Direct Investment Affect International Trade and Competiveness:An Empirical Assessment,CEPII,document de travail,1997:97-167.
75 Hejazi,W.,Safarian,A.E., The Complementarity Between U.S.Foreign Direct Investment Stock and Trade[J]. Atlantic Economic Journal,2001,29(4):420-437.
76关于新兴市场经济体究竟包括哪些国家和地区,各大全球性经济组织有划分略有不同：2004年起IMF重新对全球经济体进行了分类,把原来发达经济体、转型经济体和发展中经济体三类调整为两大类,亚洲新兴工业化经济体(NIES)被列入了先行经济体,而其他的则称为新兴市场和发展中经济体。UNCTAD对新兴市场经济体的分类中则通常包括了亚洲新兴工业化经济体。但是不管哪种分类,都认为“金砖国家”是目前新兴市场经济体的典型代表。
77 Agarwal. J. H.,Third Word Multinationals and Balance of Payments Effects on Home Countries:A Case Study of India. in Khushi.,M.K.(ed).Multinationals from the South[M],London, Macmillan,1986:84-195. 30
80同16。
81 Jung Soo Seo;Chung-Sok Suh, An Analysis of Home Country Trade Effects of Outward Foreign Direct Investment, ASEAN Economic Bulletin,2006, (2)23:160-171.
82 Joshua Aizenman, Ilan Noy, FDI and Trade—Two-way Linkages?[J], The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,2006,46(3):317-337.
83项本武：中国对外直接投资：决定因素与经济效应的实证研究[M],社会科学文献出版社,2005年8月。
84相关文献在此次金融危机后迅速增加,比如SaschaO.Becker, Marc-Andreas Muendler, The Effect of FDI on Job Security,The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy,2008,8; McDonnell,Anthony,Outward foreign direct investment and human capital development,Journal of European Industrial Training,2008,32; Castellani, Davide; Mariotti, Ilaria; Piscitello,Lucia, The Impact of Outward Investments on Parent Company's Employment and Skill Composition Evidence From the Italian Case, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2008,19. Driffield,Nigel;Love,James H.;Tayer,Karl, Productivity and Labour Demand Effects of Inward and Outward Foreign Direct Investment on UK Industry, Manchester School,2009,77.
85吴先明.国际贸易理论与国际直接投资理论的融合发展趋势[J],经济学动态,1999(7),51-55.
86李荣林.国际贸易与直接投资的关系[J],世界经济,2002(4),44-46.
87胡国恒.贸易和直接投资理论的一体化发展及其最新进展[J],外国经济与管理,2005(7),16-26.
88龚晓莺、杨小勇、王朝科.国际贸易与国际直接投资的三种关系——芒德尔贸易与投资替代模型引发的思考[J],国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2006(4),54-57.
89邱立成.论国际直接投资与国际贸易之间的联系[J],南开经济研究,1999(6),33-39.
90梁志成.论国际贸易与国际直接投资的新型关系——对芒德尔贸易与投资替代模型的重新思考[J],经济评论,2001(2),113-115.
91尼尔.胡德,斯蒂芬.扬(英),叶刚译.《跨国企业经济学》[M],经济科学出版社1990..
92古广东,对外直接投资与母国经济利益：理论分析与实证研究[D],2006.
93李兵,对外直接投资的贸易效应研究——以日、韩为例[D],2008年4月。
94赵伟.中国企业“走出去”——政府政策取向与典型案例分析[M],经济科学出版社,2004.
95蔡锐、刘泉.中国的国际直接投资与贸易是互补的吗?一基于小岛清“边际产业理论”的实证分析[J],世界经济研究[J],2004(8),64-70.
96张如庆.中国对外直接投资与对外贸易的关系分析[J],世界经济研究,2005(3),23-27.
97陈石清.对外直接投资与出口贸易实证比较研究[J],财经理论与实践,2006(1),56-61.
98王英、刘思峰.中国对外直接投资的出口效应：一个实证分析[J],世界经济与政治论坛,2007(1),36-41
99古广东,中国企业对外直接投资对出口贸易影响分析[J],亚太经济,2008(1),55-57.
100项本武.中国对外直接投资：决定因素与经济效应的实证研究[M],社会科学文献出版社,2005.
101项本武.对外直接投资的贸易效应研究——基于中国经验的检验[J],中南财经政法大学学报,2006(3),9-15.
102项本武.东道国特征与中国对外直接投资的实证研究[J],数量经济技术经济研究,2009(7),34-45.项本武.中国对外直接投资的贸易效应研究——基于面板数据的协整分析[J],财贸经济,2009(4),77-82.
103同18。
104江泽民.通报中央政治局常委“三讲”情况的讲话,2000年1月20日,江泽民文选(第二卷)[M],人民出版社,2006年8月第一版,P569.
106熊性美、戴金平等,当代国际经济与国际经济学主流[M],东北财经大学出版社,2004年11月版,p496499。
107详见《国民经济和社会发展第十个五年计划纲要》,人民出版社,2001年3月。
108详见《国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年计划纲要》第三十七章。人民出版社,2006年3月。
109 1949年11月在美国操纵下,西方国家成立的旨在限制对社会主义国家出口的国际性组织,确定数千种商品和750种技术设备禁止向社会主义国家出口。该委员会下设有“中国委员会”,直至1994年4月宣布解散。
111根据国家统计局数据http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/计算得到。
Deng, P., Foreign Investment by Multinationals From Emerging Countries:the Case of China[J], Journal of Leadership & Organizational Studies,2003,10:113-123.
113 Deng. P., Outward investment by Chinese MNCS:Motivations and Implications[J], Business Horizons,2004, 3:8-16
114 Deng, P., Why do Chinese Firms Tend to Acquire Strategic Assets in International Expansion? [J], Journal of World Business.2009.44:74-84.
Erdener, C.&Shapiro,D.M., the Internationalization of Chinese Family Enterprises and Dunning's Eclectic MNE Paradigm[J], Management and Organization Rrview,2005,1:411-436
116小岛清(日),对外贸易论[M],南开大学出版社1987年版,P423.
117杜凯、周勤,中国对外直接投资“贸易壁垒诱发的跨越行为[J],南开经济研究,2010(2),44-63。
118 1981—2010年间的跨国并购,有37%发生在石油采矿业中,这类的跨国并购项目通常金额巨大。
119 E. Helpman & P. Antras, Contractual Frictions and Global Sourcing, NBER Working Papers, No.12747, 2006.
120 Markusen,J R, Venables A J, The Theory of Endowment,Intra-industry,and Multinational Trade[J], Journal of International Economics.2000.52:209-234.
121 Carr,D.L.Markusen,J.R.&Maskus K E., Estimating the Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise[J],American Economic Review,2001,91:693-708.
123 UNCTAD自1992年起每年发布《世界投资报告》,同时公布以海外资产和跨国指数(TNI)排序的“全球最大100个跨国公司”。详细资料参见http://www.unctad.org/Templates/Page.asp?intItemID=2443&lang=1
125英国经济学家希克斯(J.R.Hicks)把技术进步分为中性技术进步、劳动节约型技术进步与资本节约型技术进步三类。由于各种类型的技术进步和它发生所在的产业部门不同,生产可能性曲线向外扩张后的形状不同,因而对贸易结构的影响也不同。
126 Helpman E., Krugman P.R., Trade Policy and Market Structure [M], The MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass,1989.
127林毅夫,经济发展与转型——思潮、战略与自生能力[M],北京：北京大学出版社,2007。
128赵东,广东省对外贸易商品结构与产业结构关系的实证分析[D].广东外语外贸大学,2006。
129原毅军、董琨,产业结构的变动与优化：理论解释和定量分析[M],大连：大连理工大学出版社,2008。
130同102。
131高敏雪、李颖俊,对外直接投资发展阶段的实证分析——国际经验与中国现状的探讨[J],管理世界,2004(1),55-61。
132李辉,经济增长与对外投资大国地位的形成[J],经济研究,2007(2),38-47。
133梁军、谢康,中国“双向投资”的结构：阶段检验与发展趋势[J],世界经济研究,2008(1),3-9。
134陈漓高、黄武俊,投资发展路径(IDP)：阶段检验和国际比较研究[J],世界经济研究,2009(9),51-56。
135黄武俊、燕安,中国对外直接投资发展阶段实证检验和国际比较[J],国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2010(1),67-73。
136 UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2004, p:46
137中国的主要贸易伙伴选取了香港、日本、韩国、东盟(10国)、欧盟(27国)、北美自由贸易区(NAFTA3国)和南美(13国),涵盖了从1982—2010年间中国不同时期主要贸易伙伴。
138本文除特别注明外,运用的计量软件均为E-views 6.0软件。
139货物贸易出口比重(PEXM)是指货物贸易出口占货物贸易进出口的比重,货物贸易进口比重(PIMM)是指货物贸易进口占货物贸易进出口的比重,主要反映货物贸易中进出口结构比例的变化。同理得到服务贸易出口比重(PEXS)和服务贸易进口比重(PIMS),反映服务贸易中进出口结构的变化。
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