小汽车通勤出行方式向公共交通转移模型研究
|
摘要
摘要：在我国加快城镇化建设的大背景下,机动车特别是私人机动车保有量迅速增加。尤其在一些经济相对发达大中城市,日益突出的供需矛盾加剧了城市交通拥堵,特别是早晚高峰期间,交通出行状况不容乐观。解决交通拥堵问题主要思路除了加快交通基础设施建设外,还应转变人们的交通出行模式。本文以通勤为切入点,研究促使通勤者放弃小汽车,转向运量大、占地少、资源利用率高的公共交通出行对缓解城市交通拥堵具有重要意义。
本文首先运用系统理论,将通勤出行方式选择看成一个系统问题,分析了系统内外因素对通勤者方式选择决策的影响,研究了小汽车向公共交通转移的动力、阻力,以及转移的作用机理。通勤者是出行方式选择的核心,根据转移作用机理,从通勤者心理决策和出行行为特征两方面提出个人方式选择价值取向和活动两个关键因素,利用行为调查数据研究了其与转移的关联关系。基于力学原理定义了转移作用力,对交通工具(包括公共交通和小汽车)服务性能、小汽车通勤者本身对小汽车的依赖等几个主要直接作用力进行了研究,利用力的合成、动能定理等建立了小汽车通勤向公共交通转移意愿模型,划分小汽车通勤者的类型,基于转移意愿模型,利用交通调查数据比较了不同类型小汽车通勤者转移意愿,分析了促使不同类型小汽车通勤者转移条件的差异性。将政府和小汽车通勤者视为有限理性行为人,基于一定交通条件下通勤者转移意愿,利用演化博弈理论研究了公交优先政策下考虑政策制定成本以及不同通勤者间相互作用下转移的演化均衡策略。主要研究成果包括：
第一,将通勤出行方式选择问题看成一个系统问题,分析了系统的概念、目标、特征、构成要素及其相互之间的关系等。研究了通勤者进行方式选择的决策过程,分析了系统内外因素对决策的影响。分析了促使小汽车通勤出行向公共交通转移的阻力、动力,研究了小汽车通勤向公共交通转移的作用机理。
第二,提出了个人方式选择价值取向的概念,指出其是出行者进行方式选择时体现出的一种内在价值追求的表述,是影响方式选择行为的内在决定因素。分析了影响个人方式选择价值取向的主要因素,分析了交通工具对通勤者的主要价值,对个人方式选择价值取向进行了调查设计。研究了通勤出行链概念、特征和类型,基于转移行为调查数据,利用结构方程模型研究了通勤出行链、个人方式选择价值取向对转移的影响。
第三,基于力学原理,提出了转移作用力的概念和类型,从出行时效、便利、舒适、经济等角度研究了公共交通及小汽车服务性能的计算指标,在此基础上研究了公共交通和小汽车所提供服务对小汽车通勤者的作用力。考虑通勤者个人方式选择价值取向及活动,研究了通勤者对小汽车依赖力。以小汽车通勤者为受力主体,对各作用力进行了力的合成。基于动能定理建立了小汽车向公共交通转移意愿模型。
第四,从个人属性上按年龄和收入,划分小汽车通勤者类型,利用小汽车通勤向公共交通转移行为和意向调查数据分析不同类型小汽车通勤者转移行为和意向特征,基于转移意愿模型,利用转移意向调查数据对不同类型小汽车通勤者转移意愿进行了比较研究,分析了为促使不同类型小汽车通勤者转移条件的差异性。
第五,阐述了公交优先政策的内涵、措施,研究了公交优先政策促进小汽车通勤转移的演化机理,基于一定交通条件下通勤者转移意愿,以政府和通勤者群体为博弈参与人,建立考虑政策制定成本下的演化博弈模型,分析了通勤者转移的六种演化均衡策略。以不同小汽车通勤者群体为博弈参与人,建立了考虑不同通勤者间相互作用的演化博弈模型,研究了通勤者相互作用下的四种演化均衡策略。以一个开通公交专用道为背景,对模型进行了算例分析。
论文的创新点主要体现在以下几个方面：
(1)将通勤出行方式选择看成一个系统问题,分析系统内外因素对转移的影响,研究了通勤出行方式选择的决策过程,分析了转移的阻力、动力以及转移的作用机理。
(2)提出个人方式选择价值取向的概念、影响因素等,分析了交通工具对出行者具有的主要价值,对方式选择价值取向进行了调查设计,研究了通勤出行链的概念、特征、类型等,利用结构方程模型研究了个人方式选择价值取向、活动与方式转移的关联关系。
(3)引入物理中的力学理论,提出了转移作用力的概念和类型。基于通勤出行方式选择系统主要构成要素,研究了小汽车、公共交通各项服务性能对通勤者的作用力、通勤者对小汽车的依赖力等几个主要直接作用力计算模型,以小汽车通勤者为受力主体,对各项作用力进行了力的合成。利用动能定理建立小汽车通勤向公共交通转移意愿模型。
(4)将政府和小汽车通勤者视为有限理性行为人,基于一定交通条件下通勤者转移意愿,建立考虑政策制定成本下的演化博弈模型,分析了通勤者转移的六种演化均衡策略。基于一定交通条件下不同类型通勤者具有的转移意愿,建立了考虑不同通勤者间相互作用的演化博弈模型,研究了通勤者相互作用下的四种演化均衡策略。
ABSTRACT:Nowadays the traffic jam especially on rush hours becomes more and more serious in some cities of China. Making people change their traffic mode and suggesting them to use more public transport for their trip is extremely an effective way to solve the problem. In the paper, model mode shift of car commuters to public transport has been studied, which is meaningful for government's decision-making.
Some work has been done in the paper which is listed in the following:
Firstly,The problem of mode choice has been regarded as a system, the composing factors,aim,characters of the system have been put forward. The process of commuters decision making in mode choice has been studied under which the effect of system environment to the choice has been analyzed. Some primary resistance and impetus to the mode change from private car to public transport has been studied, under which the mechanism of model shift has been brought forward.
Secondly,A new conception named value tropism of mode choice has been put forward, which is a principle intrinsic factor to people's mode choice. After explaining the position, function, effected factors of the new conception, A survey project of the value tropism has been put forward. In the next, commuter chain has been studied, after that a model has been built for the purpose of finding the effect of value tropism and commuter chain to the mode choice using structural equation.
Thirdly, The conception of shift force to car commuters has been described based on mechanics theory. Model the service characters of private car and public transport using mechanics theory has been studied. Kinetic energy theorem has been used to built the desire model of car commuters.
Fourthly, car commuters have been classified to six category according to their income and age, The difference of desire degree for their mode-change has been analyzed based on the RP and SP survey data in Beijing Jingtong and Huilongguan district. By parameter estimation from survey data, It shows that different kinds of commuters have different preference for traffic conditions and habitual dependence
Finally,Evolutionary game theory has been used to analysis the action of car commuters under public transport first policy. Models of considering the policy cost and mutral-action of the commuters have been built separately. The evolutionary path has been analyzed.
The innovation of the thesis can ben showed as follow:
(1) The issue of mode choice has been regarded as a system, the effect of inner factors and environment of the system to the choice has been analyzed. Some primary resistance and impetus to the mode change from private car to public transport has been studied, under which the mechanism of model shift has been brought forward.
(2) A new conception named value tropism of mode choice has been put forward. A survey project of the value tropism has been put forward. commuter chain has been studied, after that a model has been built for the purpose of finding the effect of value tropism and commuter chain to the mode choice using structural equation.
(3) Mechanics theory has been brought in the thesis, The conception of shift force to car commuters has been described based on mechanics theory. Model the service characters of private car and public transport using mechanics theory has been studied. Kinetic energy theorem has been used to built the desire model of car commuters.
(4) Evolutionary game theory has been used to analysis the action of car commuters under public transport first policy.The policy cost and mutral-action of the commuters have been considered separately. The evolutionary path has been analyzed.
本文首先运用系统理论,将通勤出行方式选择看成一个系统问题,分析了系统内外因素对通勤者方式选择决策的影响,研究了小汽车向公共交通转移的动力、阻力,以及转移的作用机理。通勤者是出行方式选择的核心,根据转移作用机理,从通勤者心理决策和出行行为特征两方面提出个人方式选择价值取向和活动两个关键因素,利用行为调查数据研究了其与转移的关联关系。基于力学原理定义了转移作用力,对交通工具(包括公共交通和小汽车)服务性能、小汽车通勤者本身对小汽车的依赖等几个主要直接作用力进行了研究,利用力的合成、动能定理等建立了小汽车通勤向公共交通转移意愿模型,划分小汽车通勤者的类型,基于转移意愿模型,利用交通调查数据比较了不同类型小汽车通勤者转移意愿,分析了促使不同类型小汽车通勤者转移条件的差异性。将政府和小汽车通勤者视为有限理性行为人,基于一定交通条件下通勤者转移意愿,利用演化博弈理论研究了公交优先政策下考虑政策制定成本以及不同通勤者间相互作用下转移的演化均衡策略。主要研究成果包括：
第一,将通勤出行方式选择问题看成一个系统问题,分析了系统的概念、目标、特征、构成要素及其相互之间的关系等。研究了通勤者进行方式选择的决策过程,分析了系统内外因素对决策的影响。分析了促使小汽车通勤出行向公共交通转移的阻力、动力,研究了小汽车通勤向公共交通转移的作用机理。
第二,提出了个人方式选择价值取向的概念,指出其是出行者进行方式选择时体现出的一种内在价值追求的表述,是影响方式选择行为的内在决定因素。分析了影响个人方式选择价值取向的主要因素,分析了交通工具对通勤者的主要价值,对个人方式选择价值取向进行了调查设计。研究了通勤出行链概念、特征和类型,基于转移行为调查数据,利用结构方程模型研究了通勤出行链、个人方式选择价值取向对转移的影响。
第三,基于力学原理,提出了转移作用力的概念和类型,从出行时效、便利、舒适、经济等角度研究了公共交通及小汽车服务性能的计算指标,在此基础上研究了公共交通和小汽车所提供服务对小汽车通勤者的作用力。考虑通勤者个人方式选择价值取向及活动,研究了通勤者对小汽车依赖力。以小汽车通勤者为受力主体,对各作用力进行了力的合成。基于动能定理建立了小汽车向公共交通转移意愿模型。
第四,从个人属性上按年龄和收入,划分小汽车通勤者类型,利用小汽车通勤向公共交通转移行为和意向调查数据分析不同类型小汽车通勤者转移行为和意向特征,基于转移意愿模型,利用转移意向调查数据对不同类型小汽车通勤者转移意愿进行了比较研究,分析了为促使不同类型小汽车通勤者转移条件的差异性。
第五,阐述了公交优先政策的内涵、措施,研究了公交优先政策促进小汽车通勤转移的演化机理,基于一定交通条件下通勤者转移意愿,以政府和通勤者群体为博弈参与人,建立考虑政策制定成本下的演化博弈模型,分析了通勤者转移的六种演化均衡策略。以不同小汽车通勤者群体为博弈参与人,建立了考虑不同通勤者间相互作用的演化博弈模型,研究了通勤者相互作用下的四种演化均衡策略。以一个开通公交专用道为背景,对模型进行了算例分析。
论文的创新点主要体现在以下几个方面：
(1)将通勤出行方式选择看成一个系统问题,分析系统内外因素对转移的影响,研究了通勤出行方式选择的决策过程,分析了转移的阻力、动力以及转移的作用机理。
(2)提出个人方式选择价值取向的概念、影响因素等,分析了交通工具对出行者具有的主要价值,对方式选择价值取向进行了调查设计,研究了通勤出行链的概念、特征、类型等,利用结构方程模型研究了个人方式选择价值取向、活动与方式转移的关联关系。
(3)引入物理中的力学理论,提出了转移作用力的概念和类型。基于通勤出行方式选择系统主要构成要素,研究了小汽车、公共交通各项服务性能对通勤者的作用力、通勤者对小汽车的依赖力等几个主要直接作用力计算模型,以小汽车通勤者为受力主体,对各项作用力进行了力的合成。利用动能定理建立小汽车通勤向公共交通转移意愿模型。
(4)将政府和小汽车通勤者视为有限理性行为人,基于一定交通条件下通勤者转移意愿,建立考虑政策制定成本下的演化博弈模型,分析了通勤者转移的六种演化均衡策略。基于一定交通条件下不同类型通勤者具有的转移意愿,建立了考虑不同通勤者间相互作用的演化博弈模型,研究了通勤者相互作用下的四种演化均衡策略。
ABSTRACT:Nowadays the traffic jam especially on rush hours becomes more and more serious in some cities of China. Making people change their traffic mode and suggesting them to use more public transport for their trip is extremely an effective way to solve the problem. In the paper, model mode shift of car commuters to public transport has been studied, which is meaningful for government's decision-making.
Some work has been done in the paper which is listed in the following:
Firstly,The problem of mode choice has been regarded as a system, the composing factors,aim,characters of the system have been put forward. The process of commuters decision making in mode choice has been studied under which the effect of system environment to the choice has been analyzed. Some primary resistance and impetus to the mode change from private car to public transport has been studied, under which the mechanism of model shift has been brought forward.
Secondly,A new conception named value tropism of mode choice has been put forward, which is a principle intrinsic factor to people's mode choice. After explaining the position, function, effected factors of the new conception, A survey project of the value tropism has been put forward. In the next, commuter chain has been studied, after that a model has been built for the purpose of finding the effect of value tropism and commuter chain to the mode choice using structural equation.
Thirdly, The conception of shift force to car commuters has been described based on mechanics theory. Model the service characters of private car and public transport using mechanics theory has been studied. Kinetic energy theorem has been used to built the desire model of car commuters.
Fourthly, car commuters have been classified to six category according to their income and age, The difference of desire degree for their mode-change has been analyzed based on the RP and SP survey data in Beijing Jingtong and Huilongguan district. By parameter estimation from survey data, It shows that different kinds of commuters have different preference for traffic conditions and habitual dependence
Finally,Evolutionary game theory has been used to analysis the action of car commuters under public transport first policy. Models of considering the policy cost and mutral-action of the commuters have been built separately. The evolutionary path has been analyzed.
The innovation of the thesis can ben showed as follow:
(1) The issue of mode choice has been regarded as a system, the effect of inner factors and environment of the system to the choice has been analyzed. Some primary resistance and impetus to the mode change from private car to public transport has been studied, under which the mechanism of model shift has been brought forward.
(2) A new conception named value tropism of mode choice has been put forward. A survey project of the value tropism has been put forward. commuter chain has been studied, after that a model has been built for the purpose of finding the effect of value tropism and commuter chain to the mode choice using structural equation.
(3) Mechanics theory has been brought in the thesis, The conception of shift force to car commuters has been described based on mechanics theory. Model the service characters of private car and public transport using mechanics theory has been studied. Kinetic energy theorem has been used to built the desire model of car commuters.
(4) Evolutionary game theory has been used to analysis the action of car commuters under public transport first policy.The policy cost and mutral-action of the commuters have been considered separately. The evolutionary path has been analyzed.
引文
[1]北京交通发展研究中心.2011年度北京市交通发展年度报告[R].北京：2011.
[2]杨兆升,城市智能公共交通系统理论与方法[M]北京：中国铁道出版社,2004.
[3]张汝峰.我国城市公共交通优先发展对策研究[D].山东大学.2010.
[4]李霞.城市通勤交通与居住就业空间分布关系——模型与方法研究[D].北京交通大学.2010.
[5]刘爽.基于系统动力学的大城市交通结构演变机理及实证研究[J].北京交通大学.2009.
[6]关宏志.非集计模型——交通行为分析的工具[M]北京：人民交通出版社,2004.
[7]Ben-Akiva M, Steven R L. Discrete choice analysis:the theory and application to travel demand[M].the MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts,1985:348-349.
[8]Ben-AkivaM,Cyna M. Dynamic model of peak period congestion [J].Transportation Research Part B,1984,18:339-355.
[9]WilsonPW.Scheduling costs and the value of travel time[J].Urban Studies.1989,26:211-230.
[10]Forinash C,F.Koppelman.Application and interpretation of nested logit models of intercity mode choice[J].Transportation Research Record 1993,1413:98-106.
[11]Bhat C R.Work travel mode choice and number of non-work commute stops[J],Transportation Research B,1997,31(1):41-54.
[12]Bunch D S. Estimability in the multinominal probit model[J]. Transportation Research B,1991. 5:1-12.
[13]Golob T F. Structural equation modeling for travel behavior research[J]. Transportation Research B.2003,37:1-25.
[14]Recker W W,M G McNally, G S Root.A model of complex travel behavior:Part Ⅰ-theoretical development [J].Transportation Research A,1986,20A (4):307-318.
[15]Recker W W, M G McNally, G S Root.A model of complex travel behavior:Part Ⅱ-An operational model [J].Transportation Research A,1986,20A (4):319-330.
[16]Hagerstrand T. What about people in regional science.Regional science[C].1970,24(2):7-21.
[17]Lenntorp B. A time-geographic simulation model of individual activity programmes [C]//In Carlstein T. Parks D. and Thrift N.(eds.) Human activity and time geography(Volume 2). London:Edward Arnold,1978:162-180.
[18]Chapin F S. Human activity pattern in the city [M]. New York:Wiley,1974.
[19]Chapin F S. Human time allocation in the city [C]//In Carlstein T.Parks D. and Thrift N.(eds.) Human activity and time geography(Volume 2). London:Edward Arnold, 1978:13-26.
[20]Kitamura.R.An evaluation of activity-based travel analysis[J].Transportation,1988,15(4):9-34.
[21]Recker W W, McNally M G, Root G S. A model of complex travel behavior:part Ⅰ:theoretical development [J]. Transportation Research Part A:General,1986,20(4):307-318.
[22]Recker W W, McNally M G, Root G S. A model of complex travel behavior:part Ⅱ:an operational model [J]. Transportation Research Part A:General,1986,20(4):319-330.
[23]Hirsh, J. N.Prashker and M. Ben-Akiva.Dynamic Model of Weekly Activity Pattern [J].Transportation Science,1986,20(1):121-157.
[24]Kitamura R. Incorporating trip chaining into analysis of destination choice[J]. Transportation Research B,1984,18B:67-81.
[25]Kitamura R. A sequential II history dependent approach to trip-chaining behavior[J]. Transportation Research Record,l988,944:2-38.
[26]Strathman J G, Dueker K J. Understanding trip chaining in special reports on trip and vehicle attributes[R]. Washington D C:Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration,1990.
[27]Golob T F. A simultaneous model of household activity Participation and travel behavior[J].Transportation Research B.2000,34(5):355-376.
[28]Kitamura R. An evaluation of activity-based travel analysis [J]. Transportation,1998,15:9-34.
[29]LuX,Pas E T.Socio-demographics,activity participation and travel behavior[J].Transportation Research A,1999,33(1):1-18.
[30]Bowman J L,Ben-Akiva M.Activity-based disaggregate travel demand model System With activity schedules[J].Transportation Research A,2000,35(l):1-28.
[31]Hinan Li. Comparing women's and men's morning commute trip chaining in Atlanta, Georgia, by using instrumental vehicle activity data[J].Transportation research board of the national academies,2005:33-38.
[32]Xin Ye, Ram M P, GiovanniG An exploration of the relationship between mode choice and complexity of trip chaining patterns[J].Science Direct Transportation Research Part B,2007,41(1):96-113.
[33]柴彦威,刘志林,李峥嵘,等.中国城市的时空间结构[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2002.
[34]柴彦威.中日城市结构比较研究[M].北京：北京大学出版社,1999.1-15.
[35]李峥嵘.大连市民通勤特征研究[J].人文地理,2000(6)：67-72.
[36]孟庆艳,陈静.城市居民通勤活动行为的时空特征研究—以上海浦东新区为例[J].交通规划,2006(7)：6-9.
[37]张艳,柴彦威.基于居住区比较的北京城市通勤研究[J].地理研究,2009(9)：1327-1339.
[38]褚浩然,郑猛,杨晓光等.出行链特征指标的提取及应用研究[J].城市交通,2006,4(2)：64-67.
[39]陈团生.通勤者出行选择行为与分析方法研究[D].北京：北京交通大学,2007.
[40]岳芳.上班出行行为特征研究[D].北京交通大学.2007.
[41]杨柳.城市通勤出行链模式选择行为研究[J].科技资讯,2012(7)：226-229.
[42]石心怡,郭英,王元庆.基于出行链的公共交通走廊探讨[J].城市轨道交通研究,2010(5)：59-63.
[43]鲜于建川,隽志才.基于随机边界函数的出行时间分析[J].系统管理学报,2009(12)：711-716.
[44]栾琨,隽志才,宗芳.通勤者出行方式和出行链选择行为研究[J].公路交通科技,2010,27(6)：107-111.
[45]杨敏,陈学武,王炜,万涛.通勤出行链简单链和复杂链的选择行为研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2008,32(2)：191-194.
[46]诸葛承祥,邵春福,李霞,孟梦.通勤者出行时间与出行方式选择行为研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2012,(4)：126-131.
[47]鲜于建川,隽志才.双职工家庭通勤出行长度选择研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2012(6)：1132-1135.
[48]Goran Jovicic, Christian Overgaard Hansen.A Passenger Travel Demand Model for Copenhagen [J].Transportation Research A,2003,37(4):333-349.
[49]Rosenbloom,S.The impact of growing children on their parents'travel behavior:a comparative analysis[J].Transportation Research Record,1987,l 135:17-25.
[50]Tracy Elizabeth McMillan.Walking and urban form modeling and testing parental decision about children's travel[D].University of California,Irvine,2003.
[51]Ricardo Dobson.Structural models for the analysis of traveler attitude-behavior relationships[J].Business and economics,1978,7(4):351-363.
[52]Maria Vredin Johansson,Tobias Heldt. Latent variables in a travel mode choice model:attitudinal and behavioral indicator variables[J].Wording paper,2005,5:3-6.
[53]Maria Vredin Johansson,Tobias HeldtThe effects of attitudes and personality traits on mode choice[J].Transportation research,2005,1-19.
[54]Kuhn, M. H.,& McPartland, T. S. (1954). An empirical investigation of self-attributes. American Sociological Review,19(1),68-76.
[55]Niamh Murtagh, Birgitta Gatersleben, David Uzzell. Multiple identities and travel mode choice for regular journeys[J]. Transportation Research Part F,2012,15:514-524.
[56]Kasem Choocharukul,Hong Tan Van,Satoshi Fujii. Psychological effects of travel behavior on preference of residential location choice[J]. Transportation Research Part A,2008,42:116-124.
[57]Galdames, Camila. Exploring the role of psychological factors in mode choice models by a latent variables approach[J].Transportation Research Record,2011,11:68-74.
[58]Christian A. Klockner, Ellen Matthies. How habits interfere with norm-directed behaviour:A normative decision-making model for travel mode choice [J] Journal of Environmental Psychology,2004,24(3):319-327.
[59]Marcel Paulssen,Dirk Temme.Values,attitudes and travel behavior:a hierarchic latent variable mixed logit model of travel mode choice[J].Transportation,2013.
[60]Jiun-Hung Lin,Tzong-Ru Lee,William Jen. Assessing asymmetric response effect of behavioral intention to service quality in an integrated psychological decision-making process model of intercity bus passengers:a case of Taiwan [J]. Transportation,2008(35):129-144.
[61]赵国祥,李永鑫.我国交通心理学研究现状与展望[J].信阳师范学院学报(哲学社会科学版),2000,20(1)：62-65.
[62]朱晓宁.旅客运输心理学[M].北京：中国铁道出版社,2001,8.
[63]龚国清,张伟.旅客出行心理研究的重要性及对策分析[J].公路与汽运,2004,2.
[64]郭寒英.基于出行者生理心理的城市客运交通出行行为研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2007
[65]罗清玉,吴文静,贾洪飞,胡鹏飞.基于前景理论的居民出行方式选择分析[J].交通信息与安全,2012,30：37-40.
[66]田庆斌.基于行为经济学理论的居民出行方式选择研究[D].吉林：吉林大学,2008.
[67]李志斌,杨晨,王炜,江国俊.基于出行态度的自行车通勤出行市场划分[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2012,42(4)：784-789.
[68]何永占引入心理变量的旅客中长距离出行方式选择模型[J].甘肃科技纵横,2010,39(2)： 18-23.
[69]VedagirIP,Arasanv.T. Estimating modal shift of car travelers to bus on introduction of bus priority system[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2009,12:120-129.
[70]Tiseher M L. Dobson R. An empirical analysis of behavioral intentions of single-occupant auto drivers to shift to light occupancy vehicles[J]. Transportation Research A,1979,13:43-158.
[71]Nurdden A, Rahruat R A, Ismail A. Effect of transportation polices on modal shift from private car to public transport in Malaysia[J]. Journal of Applied Sciences,2007,7(7):1013-1018.
[72]Alvinsyah, Soehodho S, Nainggolan P J. Public transport user attitude based on choice model parameter characteristies(case study:Jakarta bus way system)[J]. Journal of Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies,2005,6:480-491.
[73]Mackett R L. Why do people use their cars for short trips[J].Transportation,2003, 30(3):329-349.
[74]Abdullah Nurdden,Riza Atiq O.K.Rahmat and Amiruddin Ismail. Effect of transportation policies on modal shift from private car to public transport in Malaysia[J]. Journal of Applied Sciences,2007,7(7):1014-1018.
[75]Linda STEG Can public transport compete with the private car? Iatss Research, 2003,27(2):27-35.
[76]Gebeyehu M, Takano S. Diagnostic evaluation of public transportation mode choice in Addis Ababa[J].Journal of Public Transportation.2007,10(4):27-50.
[77]Fillone A M, Montalbe C M, Tiglao N C. Transport mode choice models for metro manila and urban transport policy applications[J]. Journal of Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies,2007,6:480-491.
[78]Hensher D A,Reyes A J. Trip chaining as a barrier to the propensity to use public transport[J]. Transportation,2000.27(4):341-361.
[79]葛昱,李伟,张秀媛.城市中心区内停车价格对出行行为的影响分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2010(2)：43-47.
[80]黎冬平,陈峻.基于Logistic回归模型的城市居民公交出行决策分析[J].现代交通技术,2007(12)：60-62.
[81]王雯静,干宏程.小汽车与轨道交通出行方式选择行为分析[J].城市交通,2010,8(3)：36-40,6.
[82]韩艳,关宏志.基于sP和RP融合数据的小汽车通勤出行频率选择模型[J].公路交通科技,2011,28(7)：131-135,141.
[83]陈征,陆建.城市居民公交出行特征及决策分析研究[J].交通标准化,2003(6)：62-64.
[84]郜俊成.城市公交投入与公交出行率的关系模型研究[J].城市公共交通,2006(3)：26-28.
[85]姚荣涵,王殿海.模拟量子跃迁的出行方式转移模型[J].交通运输工程学报,2007,03：111-115.
[86]左忠义,杨广川,邵春福.基于公交优先的小汽车出行向公交转移模型研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2012,12(1)：124-129.
[87]赵贝.居民出行方式选择与公交优先政策协同研究[D].吉林大学.2011.
[88]王伟.铁路网抗毁性分析与研究[D].北京交通大学,2011.
[89]罗俊.基于行为分析的货物运输方式选择模型研究[D].武汉理工大学.2012.
[90]张敏敏.基于定性推理的信号交叉口行人服务水平研究[D].北京交通大学,2011.
[91]毛保华,郭继孚,陈金川,刘爽.城市综合交通结构演变的实证研究[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2011.
[92]Susanne Bohler,Sylvie Grischka,Sonja Haustein,Marcel Hunecke.Encouraging environmentally sustainable holiday travel[J].TransportationResearch Part A,2006,40,652-670.
[93]NinaKarasmaa. Evaluation of transfer methods for spatial travel demand models[J].Transportation Research Part A 2007,41:411-427.
[94]Eiji Hato. Development of behavioral context addressable loggers in the shell for travel— activity analysis[J].Transportation Research Part C,2010,18,55-67.
[95]Giulio Erberto Caniarella,Stefano de Luca. Multilayer feedforward networks for transportation mode choice analysis:An analysis and a comparison with random utility models [J].Transportation Research Part C,2005,13,121-155.
[96]马瑞丽,吴宁.安德烈·高兹的汽车社会意识形态理论及其意义[J].自然辩证法研究,2012(3)：83-86.
[97]裴玉龙,马骥.信息对城市居民出行影响的调查与分析[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2006,38(2)：226-230.
[98]徐亚.基于旅客出行行为分析的道路客运班线优化研究[D].武汉理工大学.2008.
[99]许丰恺.道路交通社会公平性评价方法研究[D].武汉理工大学.2008.
[100]张春学,毛建民.公共汽车与小汽车之间公平问题分析及对策[J].交通企业管理,2009(9)：12-13.
[101]崔红建.城市交通结构优化机理与方法研究[J].长安大学.2010.
[102]胡子祥,吴文化城市交通管理机制及其发展[J].综合运输,2001.(7)：1-6.
[103]曹小曙.基于结构方程模型的广州城市社区居民出行行为[J].地理学报,2011,66(2)：167—177.
[104]徐丽丽.基于交通行为分析的交通组织优化理论与方法研究[D].北京交通大学.2007.
[105]司马云杰.价值实现论[M].太原：山西人民出版社,2003.
[106]陈碧琼.消费者行为学[M].重庆：重庆大学出版社,2010.
[107][美]戴维.刘易斯,达瑞恩.布里格著,江林,刘伟萍译.新消费者理念[M].机械工业出版社,2001.
[108](英)迈克·费瑟斯通,刘精明译.消费文化与后现代主义[M].译林出版社,2000.
[109](美)罗格.D.布莱克韦尔,保罗.w.米尼德,詹姆斯.F.恩格尔著,徐海,朱红祥,于涛译.消费者行为学[M].机械工业出版社,2003.
[110]百度百科：http://baike.baidu.com/view/120670.htm
[111]张俊伟.极简管理：中国式管理操作系统[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2013.
[112]贝尔纳著,陈体方译.科学的社会功能[M].北京：商务印书馆,1982.
[113]拉瑞.劳丹著,刘新民译.进步及其问题[M].北京：华夏出版社,1998.
[114]鲜于建川,隽志才.出行链与出行方式相互影响模式[J].上海交通大学学报,2010(6)：792-795.
[115]赵富强.基于PLS路径模型的顾客满意度测评研究[D].天津大学.2010.
[116]黄健中.特大城市用地发展与客运交通模式[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,2006.
[117]黄成,陈长虹,王冰妍,戴鼓,赵静,王海鳗.城市交通出行方式对能源与环境的影响[J].公路交通科技,2005,22(11)：163—169.
[118]Narisra Limtanakool, Martin Dijst, Tim Schwanen. The influence of socioeconomic characteristics, land use and travel time considerations on mode choice for medium and longer-distance trips[J]. Journal of Transport Geography,2006,14:327-341.
[119]Nobis C. Multimodality:Facets and cause8 of sustainable mobility behavior[J]. Transportation Research Record,2007,20(10):35-44.
[120]Chipman J. The foundations of utility [J]. Econometric,1960,28:193-224.
[121]吴明隆.统计应用实务[M].北京：中国铁道出版社,2003.
[122]王卫东.结构方程模型原理与应用[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2003.
[123]吴明隆.结构方程模型—AMOS的操作与应用[M].重庆：重庆大学出版社,2010.
[124]李锡钦著,蔡敬衡,潘俊豪,周影辉译.结构方程模型[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2011.
[125]Kitamura R, Robinson J P, Golob T F, et al. A comparative analysis of time use data in the Netherlands and California. In Proceedings of the 20th PTRC Summer Annual Meeting: Transportation Planning Methods.1992.
[126]Golob T F, Kitamura R, Lula C. Modeling the effects of commuting time on activity duration and non-work travel. In the Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board. 1994. Washington.
[127]XuedongLu, Eric I. Pas. Socio-demographics, Activity participation and travel behavior[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice.1999,33(1):1-18.
[128]Golob TRA simultaneous model of household activity participation and trip chain generation [J]. Transportation Research B.2000,34:355-376.
[129]Fujii S, Kitamura R. Evaluation of trip-inducing effects of new freeways using a structural equations model system of commuters'time use and travel. Transportation Research B,2000.34(5):339-354.
[130]Golob T F. Structural equation modeling for travel behavior research [J]. Transportation Research B.2003,37:1-25.
[131]张文佳,柴彦威.基于家庭的城市居民出行需求理论与验证模型[J].地理学报,2008,12(63)：1246-1256.
[132]李霞,邵春福等.基于结构方程的节假日居民出行和活动关联性建模分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2008,8(6)：91-95.
[133]赵昕,关宏志,巩丽嫒.基于结构方程的家庭假日外出活动关联性分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2011,11(4)：85-90.
[134]Christian A. Klockner, Anke Blobaum. A comprehensive action determination model: Toward a broader understanding of ecological behavior using the example of travel mode choice [J].Journal of Environmental Psychology,2010,30(4):574-586.
[135]杨励雅,邵春福,李霞.城市居民出行方式选择的结构方程分析[J].北京交通大学学报,2011,(6)：1-6.
[136]周钱.基于家庭决策的交通行为和需求预测研究[D].清华大学.2008.
[137]曹小曙,林强.基于结构方程模型的广州城市社区居民出行行为[J].地理学报,2011,(2)：167-177.
[138]尹静.北京市居民出行方式选择意向研究[D].北京交通大学.2012.
[139]邱皓政.结构方程模式一—LISREL的理论、技术与应用[M].台北：双叶书廊,2005.
[140]张泉,黄富民,杨涛.公交优先[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,2010.
[141]隽海民.城市客运交通方式生态特性与结构优化研究[D].哈尔滨工业大学.2012.
[142]陈学武,葛宏伟,王炜.城市公交优先发展的对策研究[J].现代城市研究,2004(1)：34—-36.
[143]曾国安.管制、政府管制与经济管制[J].经济评论,2004(1)：93—103.
[144]葛新权,王国成.博弈实验进展[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2008.
[145]肖条军.博弈论及其应用[M].上海：上海三联书店,2004.
[146]杨荣基,彼得罗相,李颂志.动态合作—尖端博弈论[M].北京：中国市场出版社,2007.
[147]陈星光,周晶,朱振涛.城市交通出行方式选择的演化博弈分析[J].管理工程学报,2009(2)：140-142.
[148]肖海燕,王先甲.政府参与模式下出行者出行方式选择行为的演化博弈分析[J].管理工程学报,2010(2)：115-117.
[149]马辉,王建廷.风险感知下开发商绿色开发决策演化博弈[J].计算机工程与应用,2012,48(17)-224-228.
[150]殷向洲.基于演化博弃的闭环供应链协调问题研究[D].武汉：武汉理工大学,2008.
[151]钟锦.基于演化博弈的淮河流域水环境管理研究[D].合肥工业大学.2008.
[152]张维迎.博弈论与信息经济学[M]上海：上海人民出版社,2004.
[153]莫里斯·哈布瓦赫著.毕然,郭金华译.论集体记忆[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2002.[139]胡维平都市消费者行为[M].上海财经大学出版社,2006,87-94.
[154]弗兰克·费瑟著,王诗成译,谈敏校.未来消费者[M].沈阳：辽宁教育出版社,1999.
[155]刘世雄,周志民.从世代标准谈中国消费者市场细分[J].商业经济文荟,2002(5)：19-21.
[156]雅克·德里达著,蒋梓弊译.多义的记忆一为保罗·德曼而作口川.北京：中央编译出版社,1999.
[157]哈拉尔德·韦尔策编.李斌,王立君,白锡塑译.社会记忆：历史、回忆、传承口vI].北京：北京大学出版社,2007.
[158]陈华.珠江三角洲地区居民体育消费行为阶层分化研究[D].上海体育学院：2007.
[159]中南民族大学民族与社会学学院.族群与族际交流[M].北京：民族出版社,2003.
[160]培林,张翼.中国中产阶级的规模、认同和社会态度阴.社会,2008(2)：1-18.
[161]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].中国统计出版社,2011.
[162]霍金斯等著.消费者行为学(第八版)[M=].北京：机械工业出版社,2003
[163]Bulter,Tim,Mike Savage.Social change and the middle class[M].London:UCL Press.1995.
[164]Erikson, Robert, John H.Goldthorpe. The constant flux:A study of class mobility in industrial societies[M]. Oxford:Clarendon Press.1993.
[165]任志坚,陈磊.我国社会阶层的多元化变迁与和谐社会的构建[J].经济与社会发展,2010(11),55-58.
[166]陆学艺.当代中国社会结构.北京：社会科学文献出版社,2010.
[167]徐行,薛琳.当代中国社会结构研究中的阶层分析与阶级分析[J].江汉大学学报(社会科学版),2009.
[168]王方,陈金川,陈艳艳.交通sP调查的均匀设计方法[J].城市交通,2005,3(3)：69—-72.
[169]刘雪杰,孙明正,李民伟,陈锋,张溪.京通快速路设置公交专用道实施效果评估[R].北京：北京交通发展研究中心.2011.
[170]邵洁,关宏志,王鑫.正交试验设计在交通意向调查中的应用[J].公路交通科技,2005,22(10)：106-109.
[171]赵鹏,藤原章正,杉惠赖宁.SP调查方法在交通预测中的应用[J].北方交通大学学报,2000, 24(6)：29-32.
[172]沈恒范.概率论与数理统计[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2007.
[173]北京师范大学数学系.认识最小二乘法[M].北京：人民教育出版社,2005.
[174]邵长桥.交通数据统计分析理论与方法[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2012.
[175]黄艳君,陈学武,张卫华.公交专用道设置前后路段交通流模型的比较[J].华中科技大学学报,2003,20(4)：68—70.
[2]杨兆升,城市智能公共交通系统理论与方法[M]北京：中国铁道出版社,2004.
[3]张汝峰.我国城市公共交通优先发展对策研究[D].山东大学.2010.
[4]李霞.城市通勤交通与居住就业空间分布关系——模型与方法研究[D].北京交通大学.2010.
[5]刘爽.基于系统动力学的大城市交通结构演变机理及实证研究[J].北京交通大学.2009.
[6]关宏志.非集计模型——交通行为分析的工具[M]北京：人民交通出版社,2004.
[7]Ben-Akiva M, Steven R L. Discrete choice analysis:the theory and application to travel demand[M].the MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts,1985:348-349.
[8]Ben-AkivaM,Cyna M. Dynamic model of peak period congestion [J].Transportation Research Part B,1984,18:339-355.
[9]WilsonPW.Scheduling costs and the value of travel time[J].Urban Studies.1989,26:211-230.
[10]Forinash C,F.Koppelman.Application and interpretation of nested logit models of intercity mode choice[J].Transportation Research Record 1993,1413:98-106.
[11]Bhat C R.Work travel mode choice and number of non-work commute stops[J],Transportation Research B,1997,31(1):41-54.
[12]Bunch D S. Estimability in the multinominal probit model[J]. Transportation Research B,1991. 5:1-12.
[13]Golob T F. Structural equation modeling for travel behavior research[J]. Transportation Research B.2003,37:1-25.
[14]Recker W W,M G McNally, G S Root.A model of complex travel behavior:Part Ⅰ-theoretical development [J].Transportation Research A,1986,20A (4):307-318.
[15]Recker W W, M G McNally, G S Root.A model of complex travel behavior:Part Ⅱ-An operational model [J].Transportation Research A,1986,20A (4):319-330.
[16]Hagerstrand T. What about people in regional science.Regional science[C].1970,24(2):7-21.
[17]Lenntorp B. A time-geographic simulation model of individual activity programmes [C]//In Carlstein T. Parks D. and Thrift N.(eds.) Human activity and time geography(Volume 2). London:Edward Arnold,1978:162-180.
[18]Chapin F S. Human activity pattern in the city [M]. New York:Wiley,1974.
[19]Chapin F S. Human time allocation in the city [C]//In Carlstein T.Parks D. and Thrift N.(eds.) Human activity and time geography(Volume 2). London:Edward Arnold, 1978:13-26.
[20]Kitamura.R.An evaluation of activity-based travel analysis[J].Transportation,1988,15(4):9-34.
[21]Recker W W, McNally M G, Root G S. A model of complex travel behavior:part Ⅰ:theoretical development [J]. Transportation Research Part A:General,1986,20(4):307-318.
[22]Recker W W, McNally M G, Root G S. A model of complex travel behavior:part Ⅱ:an operational model [J]. Transportation Research Part A:General,1986,20(4):319-330.
[23]Hirsh, J. N.Prashker and M. Ben-Akiva.Dynamic Model of Weekly Activity Pattern [J].Transportation Science,1986,20(1):121-157.
[24]Kitamura R. Incorporating trip chaining into analysis of destination choice[J]. Transportation Research B,1984,18B:67-81.
[25]Kitamura R. A sequential II history dependent approach to trip-chaining behavior[J]. Transportation Research Record,l988,944:2-38.
[26]Strathman J G, Dueker K J. Understanding trip chaining in special reports on trip and vehicle attributes[R]. Washington D C:Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration,1990.
[27]Golob T F. A simultaneous model of household activity Participation and travel behavior[J].Transportation Research B.2000,34(5):355-376.
[28]Kitamura R. An evaluation of activity-based travel analysis [J]. Transportation,1998,15:9-34.
[29]LuX,Pas E T.Socio-demographics,activity participation and travel behavior[J].Transportation Research A,1999,33(1):1-18.
[30]Bowman J L,Ben-Akiva M.Activity-based disaggregate travel demand model System With activity schedules[J].Transportation Research A,2000,35(l):1-28.
[31]Hinan Li. Comparing women's and men's morning commute trip chaining in Atlanta, Georgia, by using instrumental vehicle activity data[J].Transportation research board of the national academies,2005:33-38.
[32]Xin Ye, Ram M P, GiovanniG An exploration of the relationship between mode choice and complexity of trip chaining patterns[J].Science Direct Transportation Research Part B,2007,41(1):96-113.
[33]柴彦威,刘志林,李峥嵘,等.中国城市的时空间结构[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2002.
[34]柴彦威.中日城市结构比较研究[M].北京：北京大学出版社,1999.1-15.
[35]李峥嵘.大连市民通勤特征研究[J].人文地理,2000(6)：67-72.
[36]孟庆艳,陈静.城市居民通勤活动行为的时空特征研究—以上海浦东新区为例[J].交通规划,2006(7)：6-9.
[37]张艳,柴彦威.基于居住区比较的北京城市通勤研究[J].地理研究,2009(9)：1327-1339.
[38]褚浩然,郑猛,杨晓光等.出行链特征指标的提取及应用研究[J].城市交通,2006,4(2)：64-67.
[39]陈团生.通勤者出行选择行为与分析方法研究[D].北京：北京交通大学,2007.
[40]岳芳.上班出行行为特征研究[D].北京交通大学.2007.
[41]杨柳.城市通勤出行链模式选择行为研究[J].科技资讯,2012(7)：226-229.
[42]石心怡,郭英,王元庆.基于出行链的公共交通走廊探讨[J].城市轨道交通研究,2010(5)：59-63.
[43]鲜于建川,隽志才.基于随机边界函数的出行时间分析[J].系统管理学报,2009(12)：711-716.
[44]栾琨,隽志才,宗芳.通勤者出行方式和出行链选择行为研究[J].公路交通科技,2010,27(6)：107-111.
[45]杨敏,陈学武,王炜,万涛.通勤出行链简单链和复杂链的选择行为研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2008,32(2)：191-194.
[46]诸葛承祥,邵春福,李霞,孟梦.通勤者出行时间与出行方式选择行为研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2012,(4)：126-131.
[47]鲜于建川,隽志才.双职工家庭通勤出行长度选择研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2012(6)：1132-1135.
[48]Goran Jovicic, Christian Overgaard Hansen.A Passenger Travel Demand Model for Copenhagen [J].Transportation Research A,2003,37(4):333-349.
[49]Rosenbloom,S.The impact of growing children on their parents'travel behavior:a comparative analysis[J].Transportation Research Record,1987,l 135:17-25.
[50]Tracy Elizabeth McMillan.Walking and urban form modeling and testing parental decision about children's travel[D].University of California,Irvine,2003.
[51]Ricardo Dobson.Structural models for the analysis of traveler attitude-behavior relationships[J].Business and economics,1978,7(4):351-363.
[52]Maria Vredin Johansson,Tobias Heldt. Latent variables in a travel mode choice model:attitudinal and behavioral indicator variables[J].Wording paper,2005,5:3-6.
[53]Maria Vredin Johansson,Tobias HeldtThe effects of attitudes and personality traits on mode choice[J].Transportation research,2005,1-19.
[54]Kuhn, M. H.,& McPartland, T. S. (1954). An empirical investigation of self-attributes. American Sociological Review,19(1),68-76.
[55]Niamh Murtagh, Birgitta Gatersleben, David Uzzell. Multiple identities and travel mode choice for regular journeys[J]. Transportation Research Part F,2012,15:514-524.
[56]Kasem Choocharukul,Hong Tan Van,Satoshi Fujii. Psychological effects of travel behavior on preference of residential location choice[J]. Transportation Research Part A,2008,42:116-124.
[57]Galdames, Camila. Exploring the role of psychological factors in mode choice models by a latent variables approach[J].Transportation Research Record,2011,11:68-74.
[58]Christian A. Klockner, Ellen Matthies. How habits interfere with norm-directed behaviour:A normative decision-making model for travel mode choice [J] Journal of Environmental Psychology,2004,24(3):319-327.
[59]Marcel Paulssen,Dirk Temme.Values,attitudes and travel behavior:a hierarchic latent variable mixed logit model of travel mode choice[J].Transportation,2013.
[60]Jiun-Hung Lin,Tzong-Ru Lee,William Jen. Assessing asymmetric response effect of behavioral intention to service quality in an integrated psychological decision-making process model of intercity bus passengers:a case of Taiwan [J]. Transportation,2008(35):129-144.
[61]赵国祥,李永鑫.我国交通心理学研究现状与展望[J].信阳师范学院学报(哲学社会科学版),2000,20(1)：62-65.
[62]朱晓宁.旅客运输心理学[M].北京：中国铁道出版社,2001,8.
[63]龚国清,张伟.旅客出行心理研究的重要性及对策分析[J].公路与汽运,2004,2.
[64]郭寒英.基于出行者生理心理的城市客运交通出行行为研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2007
[65]罗清玉,吴文静,贾洪飞,胡鹏飞.基于前景理论的居民出行方式选择分析[J].交通信息与安全,2012,30：37-40.
[66]田庆斌.基于行为经济学理论的居民出行方式选择研究[D].吉林：吉林大学,2008.
[67]李志斌,杨晨,王炜,江国俊.基于出行态度的自行车通勤出行市场划分[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2012,42(4)：784-789.
[68]何永占引入心理变量的旅客中长距离出行方式选择模型[J].甘肃科技纵横,2010,39(2)： 18-23.
[69]VedagirIP,Arasanv.T. Estimating modal shift of car travelers to bus on introduction of bus priority system[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2009,12:120-129.
[70]Tiseher M L. Dobson R. An empirical analysis of behavioral intentions of single-occupant auto drivers to shift to light occupancy vehicles[J]. Transportation Research A,1979,13:43-158.
[71]Nurdden A, Rahruat R A, Ismail A. Effect of transportation polices on modal shift from private car to public transport in Malaysia[J]. Journal of Applied Sciences,2007,7(7):1013-1018.
[72]Alvinsyah, Soehodho S, Nainggolan P J. Public transport user attitude based on choice model parameter characteristies(case study:Jakarta bus way system)[J]. Journal of Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies,2005,6:480-491.
[73]Mackett R L. Why do people use their cars for short trips[J].Transportation,2003, 30(3):329-349.
[74]Abdullah Nurdden,Riza Atiq O.K.Rahmat and Amiruddin Ismail. Effect of transportation policies on modal shift from private car to public transport in Malaysia[J]. Journal of Applied Sciences,2007,7(7):1014-1018.
[75]Linda STEG Can public transport compete with the private car? Iatss Research, 2003,27(2):27-35.
[76]Gebeyehu M, Takano S. Diagnostic evaluation of public transportation mode choice in Addis Ababa[J].Journal of Public Transportation.2007,10(4):27-50.
[77]Fillone A M, Montalbe C M, Tiglao N C. Transport mode choice models for metro manila and urban transport policy applications[J]. Journal of Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies,2007,6:480-491.
[78]Hensher D A,Reyes A J. Trip chaining as a barrier to the propensity to use public transport[J]. Transportation,2000.27(4):341-361.
[79]葛昱,李伟,张秀媛.城市中心区内停车价格对出行行为的影响分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2010(2)：43-47.
[80]黎冬平,陈峻.基于Logistic回归模型的城市居民公交出行决策分析[J].现代交通技术,2007(12)：60-62.
[81]王雯静,干宏程.小汽车与轨道交通出行方式选择行为分析[J].城市交通,2010,8(3)：36-40,6.
[82]韩艳,关宏志.基于sP和RP融合数据的小汽车通勤出行频率选择模型[J].公路交通科技,2011,28(7)：131-135,141.
[83]陈征,陆建.城市居民公交出行特征及决策分析研究[J].交通标准化,2003(6)：62-64.
[84]郜俊成.城市公交投入与公交出行率的关系模型研究[J].城市公共交通,2006(3)：26-28.
[85]姚荣涵,王殿海.模拟量子跃迁的出行方式转移模型[J].交通运输工程学报,2007,03：111-115.
[86]左忠义,杨广川,邵春福.基于公交优先的小汽车出行向公交转移模型研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2012,12(1)：124-129.
[87]赵贝.居民出行方式选择与公交优先政策协同研究[D].吉林大学.2011.
[88]王伟.铁路网抗毁性分析与研究[D].北京交通大学,2011.
[89]罗俊.基于行为分析的货物运输方式选择模型研究[D].武汉理工大学.2012.
[90]张敏敏.基于定性推理的信号交叉口行人服务水平研究[D].北京交通大学,2011.
[91]毛保华,郭继孚,陈金川,刘爽.城市综合交通结构演变的实证研究[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2011.
[92]Susanne Bohler,Sylvie Grischka,Sonja Haustein,Marcel Hunecke.Encouraging environmentally sustainable holiday travel[J].TransportationResearch Part A,2006,40,652-670.
[93]NinaKarasmaa. Evaluation of transfer methods for spatial travel demand models[J].Transportation Research Part A 2007,41:411-427.
[94]Eiji Hato. Development of behavioral context addressable loggers in the shell for travel— activity analysis[J].Transportation Research Part C,2010,18,55-67.
[95]Giulio Erberto Caniarella,Stefano de Luca. Multilayer feedforward networks for transportation mode choice analysis:An analysis and a comparison with random utility models [J].Transportation Research Part C,2005,13,121-155.
[96]马瑞丽,吴宁.安德烈·高兹的汽车社会意识形态理论及其意义[J].自然辩证法研究,2012(3)：83-86.
[97]裴玉龙,马骥.信息对城市居民出行影响的调查与分析[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2006,38(2)：226-230.
[98]徐亚.基于旅客出行行为分析的道路客运班线优化研究[D].武汉理工大学.2008.
[99]许丰恺.道路交通社会公平性评价方法研究[D].武汉理工大学.2008.
[100]张春学,毛建民.公共汽车与小汽车之间公平问题分析及对策[J].交通企业管理,2009(9)：12-13.
[101]崔红建.城市交通结构优化机理与方法研究[J].长安大学.2010.
[102]胡子祥,吴文化城市交通管理机制及其发展[J].综合运输,2001.(7)：1-6.
[103]曹小曙.基于结构方程模型的广州城市社区居民出行行为[J].地理学报,2011,66(2)：167—177.
[104]徐丽丽.基于交通行为分析的交通组织优化理论与方法研究[D].北京交通大学.2007.
[105]司马云杰.价值实现论[M].太原：山西人民出版社,2003.
[106]陈碧琼.消费者行为学[M].重庆：重庆大学出版社,2010.
[107][美]戴维.刘易斯,达瑞恩.布里格著,江林,刘伟萍译.新消费者理念[M].机械工业出版社,2001.
[108](英)迈克·费瑟斯通,刘精明译.消费文化与后现代主义[M].译林出版社,2000.
[109](美)罗格.D.布莱克韦尔,保罗.w.米尼德,詹姆斯.F.恩格尔著,徐海,朱红祥,于涛译.消费者行为学[M].机械工业出版社,2003.
[110]百度百科：http://baike.baidu.com/view/120670.htm
[111]张俊伟.极简管理：中国式管理操作系统[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2013.
[112]贝尔纳著,陈体方译.科学的社会功能[M].北京：商务印书馆,1982.
[113]拉瑞.劳丹著,刘新民译.进步及其问题[M].北京：华夏出版社,1998.
[114]鲜于建川,隽志才.出行链与出行方式相互影响模式[J].上海交通大学学报,2010(6)：792-795.
[115]赵富强.基于PLS路径模型的顾客满意度测评研究[D].天津大学.2010.
[116]黄健中.特大城市用地发展与客运交通模式[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,2006.
[117]黄成,陈长虹,王冰妍,戴鼓,赵静,王海鳗.城市交通出行方式对能源与环境的影响[J].公路交通科技,2005,22(11)：163—169.
[118]Narisra Limtanakool, Martin Dijst, Tim Schwanen. The influence of socioeconomic characteristics, land use and travel time considerations on mode choice for medium and longer-distance trips[J]. Journal of Transport Geography,2006,14:327-341.
[119]Nobis C. Multimodality:Facets and cause8 of sustainable mobility behavior[J]. Transportation Research Record,2007,20(10):35-44.
[120]Chipman J. The foundations of utility [J]. Econometric,1960,28:193-224.
[121]吴明隆.统计应用实务[M].北京：中国铁道出版社,2003.
[122]王卫东.结构方程模型原理与应用[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2003.
[123]吴明隆.结构方程模型—AMOS的操作与应用[M].重庆：重庆大学出版社,2010.
[124]李锡钦著,蔡敬衡,潘俊豪,周影辉译.结构方程模型[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2011.
[125]Kitamura R, Robinson J P, Golob T F, et al. A comparative analysis of time use data in the Netherlands and California. In Proceedings of the 20th PTRC Summer Annual Meeting: Transportation Planning Methods.1992.
[126]Golob T F, Kitamura R, Lula C. Modeling the effects of commuting time on activity duration and non-work travel. In the Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board. 1994. Washington.
[127]XuedongLu, Eric I. Pas. Socio-demographics, Activity participation and travel behavior[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice.1999,33(1):1-18.
[128]Golob TRA simultaneous model of household activity participation and trip chain generation [J]. Transportation Research B.2000,34:355-376.
[129]Fujii S, Kitamura R. Evaluation of trip-inducing effects of new freeways using a structural equations model system of commuters'time use and travel. Transportation Research B,2000.34(5):339-354.
[130]Golob T F. Structural equation modeling for travel behavior research [J]. Transportation Research B.2003,37:1-25.
[131]张文佳,柴彦威.基于家庭的城市居民出行需求理论与验证模型[J].地理学报,2008,12(63)：1246-1256.
[132]李霞,邵春福等.基于结构方程的节假日居民出行和活动关联性建模分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2008,8(6)：91-95.
[133]赵昕,关宏志,巩丽嫒.基于结构方程的家庭假日外出活动关联性分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2011,11(4)：85-90.
[134]Christian A. Klockner, Anke Blobaum. A comprehensive action determination model: Toward a broader understanding of ecological behavior using the example of travel mode choice [J].Journal of Environmental Psychology,2010,30(4):574-586.
[135]杨励雅,邵春福,李霞.城市居民出行方式选择的结构方程分析[J].北京交通大学学报,2011,(6)：1-6.
[136]周钱.基于家庭决策的交通行为和需求预测研究[D].清华大学.2008.
[137]曹小曙,林强.基于结构方程模型的广州城市社区居民出行行为[J].地理学报,2011,(2)：167-177.
[138]尹静.北京市居民出行方式选择意向研究[D].北京交通大学.2012.
[139]邱皓政.结构方程模式一—LISREL的理论、技术与应用[M].台北：双叶书廊,2005.
[140]张泉,黄富民,杨涛.公交优先[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,2010.
[141]隽海民.城市客运交通方式生态特性与结构优化研究[D].哈尔滨工业大学.2012.
[142]陈学武,葛宏伟,王炜.城市公交优先发展的对策研究[J].现代城市研究,2004(1)：34—-36.
[143]曾国安.管制、政府管制与经济管制[J].经济评论,2004(1)：93—103.
[144]葛新权,王国成.博弈实验进展[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2008.
[145]肖条军.博弈论及其应用[M].上海：上海三联书店,2004.
[146]杨荣基,彼得罗相,李颂志.动态合作—尖端博弈论[M].北京：中国市场出版社,2007.
[147]陈星光,周晶,朱振涛.城市交通出行方式选择的演化博弈分析[J].管理工程学报,2009(2)：140-142.
[148]肖海燕,王先甲.政府参与模式下出行者出行方式选择行为的演化博弈分析[J].管理工程学报,2010(2)：115-117.
[149]马辉,王建廷.风险感知下开发商绿色开发决策演化博弈[J].计算机工程与应用,2012,48(17)-224-228.
[150]殷向洲.基于演化博弃的闭环供应链协调问题研究[D].武汉：武汉理工大学,2008.
[151]钟锦.基于演化博弈的淮河流域水环境管理研究[D].合肥工业大学.2008.
[152]张维迎.博弈论与信息经济学[M]上海：上海人民出版社,2004.
[153]莫里斯·哈布瓦赫著.毕然,郭金华译.论集体记忆[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2002.[139]胡维平都市消费者行为[M].上海财经大学出版社,2006,87-94.
[154]弗兰克·费瑟著,王诗成译,谈敏校.未来消费者[M].沈阳：辽宁教育出版社,1999.
[155]刘世雄,周志民.从世代标准谈中国消费者市场细分[J].商业经济文荟,2002(5)：19-21.
[156]雅克·德里达著,蒋梓弊译.多义的记忆一为保罗·德曼而作口川.北京：中央编译出版社,1999.
[157]哈拉尔德·韦尔策编.李斌,王立君,白锡塑译.社会记忆：历史、回忆、传承口vI].北京：北京大学出版社,2007.
[158]陈华.珠江三角洲地区居民体育消费行为阶层分化研究[D].上海体育学院：2007.
[159]中南民族大学民族与社会学学院.族群与族际交流[M].北京：民族出版社,2003.
[160]培林,张翼.中国中产阶级的规模、认同和社会态度阴.社会,2008(2)：1-18.
[161]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].中国统计出版社,2011.
[162]霍金斯等著.消费者行为学(第八版)[M=].北京：机械工业出版社,2003
[163]Bulter,Tim,Mike Savage.Social change and the middle class[M].London:UCL Press.1995.
[164]Erikson, Robert, John H.Goldthorpe. The constant flux:A study of class mobility in industrial societies[M]. Oxford:Clarendon Press.1993.
[165]任志坚,陈磊.我国社会阶层的多元化变迁与和谐社会的构建[J].经济与社会发展,2010(11),55-58.
[166]陆学艺.当代中国社会结构.北京：社会科学文献出版社,2010.
[167]徐行,薛琳.当代中国社会结构研究中的阶层分析与阶级分析[J].江汉大学学报(社会科学版),2009.
[168]王方,陈金川,陈艳艳.交通sP调查的均匀设计方法[J].城市交通,2005,3(3)：69—-72.
[169]刘雪杰,孙明正,李民伟,陈锋,张溪.京通快速路设置公交专用道实施效果评估[R].北京：北京交通发展研究中心.2011.
[170]邵洁,关宏志,王鑫.正交试验设计在交通意向调查中的应用[J].公路交通科技,2005,22(10)：106-109.
[171]赵鹏,藤原章正,杉惠赖宁.SP调查方法在交通预测中的应用[J].北方交通大学学报,2000, 24(6)：29-32.
[172]沈恒范.概率论与数理统计[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2007.
[173]北京师范大学数学系.认识最小二乘法[M].北京：人民教育出版社,2005.
[174]邵长桥.交通数据统计分析理论与方法[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2012.
[175]黄艳君,陈学武,张卫华.公交专用道设置前后路段交通流模型的比较[J].华中科技大学学报,2003,20(4)：68—70.